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At least 19 records

Future Community Efforts in Understanding and Modeling Atmospheric Processes

Atmospheric processes are important for weather, climate, and water prediction, as well as climate change projection, but their representation through subgrid parameterizations remains challenging. Understanding and representing these processes are therefore major goals of international research programs. The Global Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) Panel (Zeng and Klocke 2017), as part of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges Project (GEWEX), is dedicated to developing and improving the representation of the atmosphere in weather and climate models by facilitating and supporting the international community to carry out and use observations, process studies, and numerical model experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influences of upwind emission sources and atmospheric processing on aerosol chemistry and properties at a rural location in the Northeastern U.S.

Continuous real-time measurements of atmospheric aerosol with an Aerodyne high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer coupled with a fast temperature-stepping thermodenuder were carried out in summer 2011 at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL, 40.871°N, 72.89°W) during the Department of Energy Aerosol Life Cycle Intensive Operational Period campaign. BNL was frequently downwind of emissions from the New York metropolitan area and was exposed to various combinations of anthropogenic, biogenic, and marine emissions based on air mass history. The average concentration of submicrometer aerosol (PM1) during this study was 12.6 µg m –3 with 64% of the mass being organic. Organic aerosol (OA) at BNL was found to be overwhelmingly secondary, consisting of (1) a fresher, semivolatile oxygenated organic aerosol (SV-OOA; oxygen-to-carbon ratio (O/C) = 0.54; 63% of OA mass) that was strongly influenced by transported urban plumes; (2) a regional, more aged, low-volatility OOA (LV-OOA; O/C = 0.97; 29% of OA mass) influenced by aqueous-phase processing; and (3) a nitrogen-enriched OA (NOA; nitrogen-to-carbon ratio (N/C) = 0.185; 8% of OA mass) likely composed of amine salts formed from acid-base reactions in industrial emissions. Urban emissions from the New York metropolitan areas to the W and SW in particular led to elevated PM1 mass concentration and altered aerosol composition at BNL. Transported urban plumes and local biogenic emissions likely interacted to enhance secondary organic aerosol production, primarily represented by SV-OOA. Lastly, these results suggest an important role that urban anthropogenic emissions play in affecting ambient PM concentration, composition, and physical-chemical properties at rural areas in the Northeast U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric processing of iron in mineral and combustion aerosols: development of an intermediate-complexity mechanism suitable for Earth system models

Abstract. Atmospheric processing of iron in dust and combustion aerosols is simulated using an intermediate-complexity soluble iron mechanism designed for Earth system models. The solubilization mechanism includes both a dependence on aerosol water pH and in-cloud oxalic acid. The simulations of size-resolved total, soluble and fractional iron solubility indicate that this mechanism captures many but not all of the features seen from cruise observations of labile iron. The primary objective was to determine the extent to which our solubility scheme could adequately match observations of fractional iron solubility. We define a semi-quantitative metric as the model mean at points with observations divided by the observational mean (MMO). The model is in reasonable agreement with observations of fractional iron solubility with an MMO of 0.86. Several sensitivity studies are performed to ascertain the degree of complexity needed to match observations; including the oxalic acid enhancement is necessary, while different parameterizations for calculating model oxalate concentrations are less important. The percent change in soluble iron deposition between the reference case (REF) and the simulation with acidic processing alone is 63.8 %, which is consistent with previous studies. Upon deposition to global oceans, global mean combustion iron solubility to total fractional iron solubility is 8.2 %; however, the contribution of fractional iron solubility from combustion sources to ocean basins below 15∘ S is approximately 50 %. We conclude that, in many remote ocean regions, sources of iron from combustion and dust aerosols are equally important. Our estimates of changes in deposition of soluble iron to the ocean since preindustrial climate conditions suggest roughly a doubling due to a combination of higher dust and combustion iron emissions along with more efficient atmospheric processing.

Scanza, Rachel A.↗

Influence of atmospheric processes on the solubility and composition of iron in Saharan dust

Aerosol iron was examined in Saharan dust plumes using a combination of iron near-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy and wet-chemical techniques. Aerosol samples were collected at three sites located in the Mediterranean, the Atlantic, and Bermuda to characterize iron at different atmospheric transport lengths and time scales. Iron(III) oxides were a component of aerosols at all sampling sites and dominated the aerosol iron in Mediterranean samples. In Atlantic samples, iron(II and III) sulfate, iron(III) phosphate, and iron(II) silicates were also contributors to aerosol composition. With increased atmospheric transport time, iron(II) sulfates are found to become more abundant, aerosol iron oxidation state became more reduced, and aerosol acidity increased. As a result, atmospheric processing including acidic reactions and photoreduction likely influence the form of iron minerals and oxidation state in Saharan dust aerosols and contribute to increases in aerosol-iron solubility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Computational Modeling of Atmospheric Processes at Texas Southern University

Texas Southern University (TSU) is strengthening its research program in atmospheric chemistry and physics with a climate science emphasis by leveraging partnerships with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), and the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER). This RDPP-supported program focuses on secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) and reactive atmospheric species that influence cloud formation, precipitation processes, and radiative forcing. SOAs play a critical role in cloud microphysics and Earth’s energy balance, yet the chemical and physical mechanisms governing SOA–cloud interactions remain a significant source of uncertainty in predictive climate models. Through computational modeling, observational data analysis, and national laboratory collaboration, this program develops a skilled cohort of students trained in atmospheric science, environmental data analysis, and climate-relevant modeling. These research experiences build technical competencies that are transferable to careers in government laboratories, academia, and industry. By engaging students from historically underrepresented communities in high-impact climate research, TSU expands participation in the atmospheric sciences workforce while contributing meaningful scientific insights to DOE-supported ARM research activities. This partnership strengthens national capacity in climate science and supports the development of the next generation of atmospheric researchers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emerging investigator series: influence of marine emissions and atmospheric processing on individual particle composition of summertime Arctic aerosol over the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea

The Arctic is rapidly transforming due to sea ice loss, increasing shipping activity, and oil and gas development. Associated marine and combustion emissions influence atmospheric aerosol composition, impacting complex aerosol–cloud–climate feedbacks. To improve understanding of the sources and processes determining Arctic aerosol composition, atmospheric particles were collected aboard the Korean icebreaker R/V Araon cruising within the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea during August 2016. Offline analyses of individual particles by microspectroscopic techniques, including scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and atomic force microscopy with infrared spectroscopy, provided information on particle size, morphology, and chemical composition. The most commonly observed particle types were sea spray aerosol (SSA), comprising ~60–90%, by number, of supermicron particles, and organic aerosol (OA), comprising ~50–90%, by number, of submicron particles. Sulfate and nitrate were internally mixed within both SSA and OA particles, consistent with particle multiphase reactions during atmospheric transport. Within the Bering Strait, SSA and OA particles were more aged, with greater number fractions of particles containing sulfate and/or nitrate, compared to particles collected over the Chukchi Sea. This is indicative of greater pollution influence within the Bering Strait from coastal and inland sources, while the Chukchi Sea is primarily influenced by marine sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In-situ synthesis of oxides by reactive process atmospheres during L-PBF of stainless steel

Traditionally, reactive gases such as oxygen (O 2 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) have been avoided during laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) of metals and alloys based on the notion that it may lead to defect formation and poor properties. Here, in this work, we show that instead, these gases can be used to form sub-μm-sized oxide particles in-situ during the L-PBF process in an Fe-Cr-Al-Ti stainless steel and lead to improved room temperature and high-temperature mechanical properties. We manufactured cube samples using pure Ar and various reactive gas atmospheres, namely an O 2 /Argon (Ar) mixture containing 0.2 % O 2 and CO 2 /Ar mixtures containing up to 100 % CO 2 . Co-axial measurements of infrared radiation emitted from the melt pool showed correlation to the presence of O 2 or CO 2 in the gas mixture. Builds produced under CO 2 -containing atmosphere contained complex oxides with an average diameter of ~40 nm, an Al-rich core and a Ti-rich shell. Due to the high cooling rates typical to L-PBF, agglomeration of oxides and slag formation on the surface of the samples could almost be entirely avoided. Compression tests at temperatures up to 800 °C showed that the samples produced in 100 % CO 2 have about 20 % higher yield stress compared to samples produced in Ar. The paper concludes with a discussion of the formation mechanism of the observed oxides. Our results show that in-situ reactions during additive manufacturing processes are a promising pathway to the synthesis of particle-reinforced alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections

Here, we evaluate projected changes in surface water and energy balances and surface–atmosphere coupling in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) for the end of the century (2080–2099). The analyses are based on two ensemble datasets, which follow Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 in the future period, and cover four subdomains (Northern and Southern—NAMZ and SAMZ—Amazon, La Plata Basin—LPB, and Southern Southeast Brazil—SSB). One ensemble consists of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M), while the other consists of their dynamically downscaled version at 25 km horizontal grid spacing using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). As both ensembles are able in reproducing the annual cycle of the components of the surface water and energy balances in the present climate, they can be used in the study of future climate. During the wet season (November–March), both ensembles project a decrease in precipitation over NAMZ and SAMZ (an exception is RegCM4 that projects a slight increase in SAMZ), and an increase across the LPB and SSB. These changes do not cause retreat or expansion of the monsoon area over the continent, which is similar to the present climate (1995–2014). For the wet season, the ensembles are in line with the presence of a strong surface–atmosphere coupling in LPB and SSB, weak coupling in SAMZ and very weak coupling in NAMZ. For future climate, the coupling is even weaker in NAMZ, which may be a driver for the negative changes in precipitation. For the other subdomains, while the ensembles project similar signals of precipitation changes, they disagree with the surface-atmosphere coupling highlighting the uncertainties in future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emission or atmospheric processes? An attempt to attribute the source of large bias of aerosols in eastern China simulated by global climate models

Here, global climate models often underestimate aerosol loadings in China, and these biases can have significant implications for anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing and climate effects. The biases may be caused by either the emission inventory or the treatment of aerosol processes in the models, or both, but so far no consensus has been reached. In this study, a relatively new emission inventory based on energy statistics and technology, Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), is used to drive the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to evaluate aerosol distribution and radiative effects against observations in China. The model results are compared with the model simulations with the widely used Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) emission inventory. We find that the new MEIC emission improves the aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations in eastern China and explains 22–28 % of the AOD low bias simulated with the AR5 emission. However, AOD is still biased low in eastern China. Seasonal variation of the MEIC emission leads to a better agreement with the observed seasonal variation of primary aerosols than the AR5 emission, but the concentrations are still underestimated. This implies that the atmospheric loadings of primary aerosols are closely related to the emission, which may still be underestimated over eastern China. In contrast, the seasonal variations of secondary aerosols depend more on aerosol processes (e.g., gas- and aqueous-phase production from precursor gases) that are associated with meteorological conditions and to a lesser extent on the emission. It indicates that the emissions of precursor gases for the secondary aerosols alone cannot explain the low bias in the model. Aerosol secondary production processes in CAM5 should also be revisited. The simulation using MEIC estimates the annual-average aerosol direct radiative effects (ADREs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), at the surface, and in the atmosphere to be –5.02, –18.47, and 13.45 W m –2 , respectively, over eastern China, which are enhanced by –0.91, –3.48, and 2.57 W m –2 compared with the AR5 emission. The differences of ADREs by using MEIC and AR5 emissions are larger than the decadal changes of the modeled ADREs, indicating the uncertainty of the emission inventories. This study highlights the importance of improving both the emission and aerosol secondary production processes in modeling the atmospheric aerosols and their radiative effects. Yet, if the estimations of MEIC emissions in trace gases do not suffer similar biases to those in the AOD, our findings will help affirm a fundamental error in the conversion from precursor gases to secondary aerosols as hinted in other recent studies following different approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Roles of Convection Parameterization in the Formation of Double ITCZ Syndrome in the NCAR CESM: I. Atmospheric Processes

Abstract Several improvements are implemented in the Zhang‐McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme to investigate the roles of convection parameterization in the formation of double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) bias in the NCAR CESM1.2.1. It is shown that the prominent double ITCZ biases of precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind stress in the standard CESM1.2.1 are largely eliminated in all seasons with the use of these improvements in convection scheme. This study for the first time demonstrates that the modifications of convection scheme can eliminate the double ITCZ biases in all seasons, including boreal winter and spring. Further analysis shows that the elimination of the double ITCZ bias is achieved not by improving other possible contributors, such as stratus cloud bias off the west coast of South America and cloud/radiation biases over the Southern Ocean, but by modifying the convection scheme itself. This study demonstrates that convection scheme is the primary contributor to the double ITCZ bias in the CESM1.2.1, and provides a possible solution to the long‐standing double ITCZ problem. The atmospheric model simulations forced by observed SST show that the original ZM convection scheme tends to produce double ITCZ bias in high SST scenario, while the modified convection scheme does not. The impact of changes in each core component of convection scheme on the double ITCZ bias in atmospheric model is identified and further investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric processing and aerosol aging responsible for observed increase in absorptivity of long-range-transported smoke over the southeast Atlantic

Biomass burning aerosol (BBA) from agricultural fires in southern Africa contributes about one-third of the global carbonaceous aerosol load. These particles have strong radiative effects in the southeast Atlantic (SEA), which depend in part on the radiative contrast between the aerosol layer in the free troposphere (FT) and the underlying cloud layer. However, there is large disagreement in model estimates of aerosol-driven climate forcing due to uncertainties in the vertical distribution, optical properties, and life cycle of these particles. This study applies a novel method combining remote sensing observations with regional model outputs to investigate the aging of the BBA and its impact on the optical properties during transatlantic transport from emission sources in Africa to the SEA. Results show distinct variations in extinction Ångström exponent (EAE) and single-scattering albedo (SSA) as aerosols age. Near the source, fresh aerosols are characterized by low mean SSA (0.84) and high EAE (1.85), indicating smaller, highly absorbing particles. By isolating marine contributions from the total column during BBA transport across the SEA, our analysis reveals an initial decrease in BBA absorptivity, with mean FT SSA of 0.87 after 6–7 d, followed by increased absorptivity with mean FT SSA of 0.84 after 10 d, suggesting enhanced absorption due to chemical aging. These findings indicate that BBA becomes more absorbing during extended transport across the SEA, with implications for reducing model uncertainties. Our remote-sensing-based results agree well with previous in situ studies and offer new insights into aerosol–radiation interactions and the energy balance over the SEA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗

Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability

Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7–70 years — tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) — describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure and heat content anomalies. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain TPDV, which can originate through oceanic processes, atmospheric processes or as an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) residual. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of these mechanisms, their characteristics and contribution to TPDV. Oceanic processes include off-equatorial Rossby waves, which mediate oceanic adjustment and contribute to variations in equatorial thermocline depth and SST; variations in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulation, which exhibit a large anti-correlation with equatorial Pacific SST at interannual and decadal timescales; and the propagation of salinity-compensated temperature (spiciness) anomalies from the subtropics to the equatorial thermocline. Atmospheric processes include midlatitude internal variability leading to tropical and subtropical wind anomalies, which result in equatorial SST anomalies and feedbacks that enhance persistence; and atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST variability, which induce winds conducive to decadal anomalies of the opposite sign in the Pacific. Although uncertain, the tropical adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant mechanism. Finally, a deeper understanding of the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds is a key priority.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric System Research Workshop Report: New Directions in Atmospheric Ice Processes Research

Atmospheric ice processes are critical for precipitation production, cloud dynamics, and radiative properties and contribute to uncertainties in Earth’s energy budget and hydrological cycle, yet they remain poorly understood. To address this, ASR convened a 2.5-day workshop with 28 experts in laboratory measurements, field observations, and cloud modeling. The primary goal was to identify key knowledge gaps and prioritize future directions in atmospheric ice processes research. The outcomes of this workshop are expected to inform ASR and prompt improvements in cloud and Earth system models (ESMs) by advancing the fundamental understanding of ice processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enabling Robust Exoplanet Atmospheric Retrievals with Gaussian Processes

Atmospheric retrievals are essential tools for interpreting exoplanet transmission and eclipse spectra, enabling quantitative constraints on the chemical composition, aerosol properties, and thermal structure of planetary atmospheres. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) offers unprecedented spectral precision, resolution, and wavelength coverage, unlocking transformative insights into the formation, evolution, climate, and potential habitability of planetary systems. However, this opportunity is accompanied by challenges: modeling assumptions and unaccounted-for noise or signal sources can bias retrieval outcomes and their interpretation. To address these limitations, we introduce a Gaussian process (GP)-aided atmospheric retrieval framework that flexibly accounts for unmodeled features and correlated noise in exoplanet spectra. We validate this method on synthetic JWST observations, and show that GP-aided retrievals reduce bias in inferred abundances and better capture model–data mismatches than traditional approaches. We also introduce the concept of mean squared error to quantify the trade-off between bias and variance, arguing that this metric more accurately reflects retrieval performance than bias alone. We then reanalyze the NIRISS/SOSS JWST transmission spectrum of WASP-96 b, finding that GP-aided retrievals yield broader constraints on CO 2 and H 2 O, possibly alleviating tension between previous retrieval results and equilibrium predictions. Our GP framework provides precise and accurate constraints while highlighting regions where models fail to explain the data. As JWST matures and future facilities come online, a deeper understanding of the limitations of both data and models will be essential, and GP-enabled retrievals like the one presented here offer a principled path forward.

Rotman, Yoav [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Unit↗

Haze processing of atmospheric particles during wintertime in the Indo-Gangetic Plains

The impacts of haze on visibility, air quality, and climate are not well quantified due to a lack of understanding of the evolution of the mixing state and phase state of atmospheric particles during haze processing. The variability of the mixing state of atmospheric particles contributes significantly to uncertainties associated with the estimated aerosol radiative forcing. We collected particle samples in January 2018 from the highly polluted Indo-Gangetic plain during hazy conditions to study haze-processed particles. Single particle analysis using multi-modal micro-spectroscopy techniques revealed an abundance (40–70% by number) of potassium-rich sulfate particles from biomass-burning influenced smoke. Tilted view imaging showed that most of the organic particles that had inorganic potassium and sulfate inclusions were liquid-like while those without inclusions were more semi-solid. High-resolution mass spectrometry analysis revealed a significant presence of organosulfates and nitroxy-organosulfates in the morning samples (24%) compared to the afternoon samples (9%), despite higher relative humidity in the afternoon. Overall, our results highlight the significant contribution of both organic and inorganic sulfate to the total particulate sulfur budget during haze processing in winter, when anthropogenic emissions such as household burning, agricultural burning, and vehicular emissions are major contributors to particle mass.

Mathai, Susan [Pacific Northwest National Laborato↗

Roles of the atmosphere and ocean in the projected north atlantic warming hole

There exists a warming deficit in sea surface temperatures (SST) over the subpolar North Atlantic in response to quadrupled CO 2 , referred to as the projected North Atlantic warming hole (WH). This study employs a partial coupling technique to accurately verify the relative roles of oceanic and atmospheric processes in the formation of the projected WH within an atmosphere-ocean coupled framework. By decomposing the SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic into two components: those induced by atmospheric processes (i.e., the atmosphere-forced component) and those driven by changes in ocean circulation (i.e., the ocean-driven component), we find that the projected WH is primarily driven by changes in ocean circulation, with almost no contribution from atmospheric processes. Specifically, the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) results in a cooling of SST in the WH region due to reduced northward ocean heat transport into this region. This study further quantifies the influence of a positive coupled feedback through surface heat flux (SHF) on the AMOC response under greenhouse gas forcing within this self-consistent framework. It is found that the AMOC slowdown leads to a negative SST anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic and subsequently a positive ocean-driven SHF anomaly, which in turn further weakens the AMOC. In conclusion, this positive feedback through the SHF contributes about 50% to the total AMOC slowdown in response to quadrupled CO 2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reliable modeling and prediction of precipitation & radiation for mountainous hydrology

This White Paper focuses on data-driven atmospheric process model emulation and atmospheric process surrogate model development. It proposes leveraging recent AI advances in these approaches to fill in unavoidable observational gaps and enable high-fidelity modeling/predictability of the atmosphere and land-surface interactions in mountainous watersheds. This approach will support studies and predictability of water cycle extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗