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At least 19 records

CPUC Avoided Transmission and Distribution Cost Study to Support the Avoided Cost Calculator: Avoided Transmission Costs Draft Research Plan

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) have been contracted by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Energy Division (ED) to perform a study which explores and selects an improved methodology to estimate avoided electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure costs that can be attributed to the presence of distributed energy resources (DERs). PNNL is performing the study for avoided electricity transmission infrastructure costs and LBNL is performing the study for avoided electricity distribution infrastructure costs. This document summarizes CPUC’s research questions related to avoided transmission infrastructure costs and PNNL’s proposed technical approach to answer these questions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Plasma steering to avoid disruptions in ITER and tokamak power plants

Steering tokamak plasmas is commonly viewed as a way to avoid disruptions and runaway electrons. Plasma steering sounds as safe as driving to work but will be shown to more closely resemble driving at high speed through a dense fog on an icy road. The long time required to terminate an ITER discharge compared to time over which dangers can be foreseen is analogous to driving in a dense fog. Here, the difficulty of regaining plasma control if it is lost resembles driving on an icy road. Disruptions and runaways are associated with three issues—a solution to one tends to complicate the solution to the other two: loss of plasma position control, excessive heat deposition, and wall melting due to runaway electrons. All three risks must be addressed for ITER to achieve its mission and essentially eliminated before tokamak power plants can be deployed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Formation of short-range magnetic order and avoided ferromagnetic quantum criticality in pressurized LaCrGe 3

LaCrGe 3 has attracted attention as a paradigm example of the avoidance of ferromagnetic (FM) quantum criticality in an itinerant magnet. In this work, we combined thermodynamic (specific heat and thermal expansion), transport, x-ray, and neutron scattering as well as μSR measurements to obtain insights on the temperature-pressure phase diagram of LaCrGe 3 . Consistent with previous studies of the phase diagram by transport measurements, our thermodynamic data shows clearly that the FM transition at T FM changes its character from second order to first order when it is suppressed to low temperatures by pressure. In addition, previous studies demonstrated that for high pressures a new phase occurs below T 2 , which was proposed to be a long-wavelength antiferromagnetic state (AFM q ). In this paper, we provide evidence from our thermodynamic data that this phase transition is preceded by yet another phase transition at T 1 >T 2 . Our μSR data indicate that full magnetic volume fraction is only established below T 2 , but that this magnetism is characterized by a short correlation length. Within the experimental resolution, our neutron-scattering data is not able to identify any magnetic Bragg peaks. Overall, the microscopic magnetic data is therefore consistent with the formation of FM clusters in the proximity of the avoided FM quantum critical point in LaCrGe 3 . This conclusion is at odds with the previous proposal of AFM q order and raises questions on the role of disorder in this stochiometric compound.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Editors’ Choice—Necessity to Avoid Titanium Oxide as Electrocatalyst Support in PEM Fuel Cells: A Membrane Durability Study

Pt/TiO 2 as electrocatalyst was found to significantly increase the rate of the membrane chemical degradation in a polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cell. The increased degradation was proved to be due to TiO x (TiO 2 or Ti 4 O 7 ), which is widely recognized as a promising corrosion-resistant electrocatalyst support. The membrane degradation (thinning) appears to be preferentially in the side facing anode electrode. Migrated Ti species as a result of TiO x dissolution during fuel cell operation in an acidic environment was quantified by electron probe microanalysis (EPMA). Total fluorine inventory loss of the membrane strongly depends on the quantity of migrated Ti species (likely Ti 3+ and/or Ti 4+ ). The membrane chemical degradation induced by TiO x is proposed to be due to dissolved ionic Ti species reacting with H 2 O 2 through a Fenton reaction. TiO x is determined to be inviable as electrocatalyst support for PEM fuel cells, and future research is suggested to be directed toward alternative oxides with similar corrosion-resistance.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Avoidance of disruptions on KSTAR due to vertical displacement events via novel real-time stability assessment

Disruption avoidance via the DECAF approach has been achieved on KSTAR using a novel real-time vertical stability assessment and a multiactuator feedback control strategy. The development of disruption avoidance strategies with reactor-relevant reliability is an urgent activity, enabling future fusion power plants. The stability metric employed is based on a new formulation of a vertical force gradient balance metric evaluated across the poloidal cross section of the plasma, with parameters tuned using historical data. Evaluation of this metric on a validation set of 400 recent KSTAR shots indicates >82% of Vertical displacement events can be avoided via feedback control. Essential to its calculation is the two-dimensional toroidal current density distribution in the plasma. Measurement of this profile faster than fully-converged equilibrium reconstructions can deliver is found to improve forecaster performance and is achieved with a surrogate model that takes as input magnetic diagnostic measurements and outputs the current profile on a basis comprising the top principal components of historical current profiles (from past equilibrium reconstructions). This method solves the non-uniqueness problem typically faced when reconstructing current profiles directly from diagnostics, while improving computational time and accuracy. On average, profiles produced by this model reach coefficients of determination of >0.99 with respect to those from equilibrium reconstructions. The avoidance actuators employed include poloidal field coils and an electron cyclotron current drive system. The multiactuator approach, as shown in this first demonstration, allows disruption avoidance while minimizing impact to operational performance. This ability, along with its flexibility and speed, makes this new approach an attractive option for avoiding these types of disruptions in reactors.

Tobin, Matthew [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unit↗

FPV Video Adaptation for UAV Collision Avoidance

First person view (FPV) technology for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) provides an immersive experience for pilots and enables various personal and commercial applications such as aerial photography, drone racing, search and rescue operations, agricultural surveillance, and structural inspection. While real time video streaming from a UAV and vision-based collision avoidance strategies have been studied in literature as separate topics, in this paper we tackle collision avoidance in FPV scenarios, taking into account network delays and real time video parameters. We present a theoretical model for obstacle collisions that considers the current communication channel conditions, the real time video parameters, and the UAV's position relative to the closest obstacle. A video adaptation algorithm is then designed, using this metric, to tune the FPV video resolution, number of re-transmission attempts, and the modulation scheme to maximize the probability of avoiding collisions. This algorithm also takes into account specific latency constraints of the application. This video algorithm was evaluated in various scenarios and its ability to respond to both distances to the obstacle as well as the communication channel conditions was demonstrated. It was found that, for the considered scenarios, the performance of the proposed adaptive algorithm was, on an average, 58.63% higher than the closest non-adaptive one in terms of maximizing the probability of avoiding collision. Such collision avoidance strategies could be used to make UAV FPV applications safer and more reliable.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Analytical population dynamics underlying harmful algal blooms triggered by prey avoidance

A modified version of the NPZD ecosystem model is used to analytically examine the effects of predation avoidance, a possible mechanism for triggering harmful algal blooms (HAB). To resolve HAB development caused by predation avoidance, an additional phytoplankton functional group is considered, one that has slower nutrient uptake and better predation avoidance characteristics than the non-harmful phytoplankton group used in traditional NPZD models. Because the two phytoplankton groups (one non-harmful and one HAB) compete for only one resource within the same system, steady state (equilibrium) conditions cannot occur without the presence of zooplankton; only the non-harmful phytoplankton group, which defeats the HAB group in the resource competition, can survive in the equilibrium. The presence of sufficient zooplankton effectively acts to replenish the nutrient pool by consuming the non-harmful phytoplankton. When this occurs, two equilibrium states are found: one with both phytoplankton groups coexisting, and one that only includes the HAB group. Further, the condition required for equilibrium is that the total nitrogen within the system should be larger than a threshold determined by model coefficients. The threshold and feasibility of the equilibrium are sensitive to the relative HAB predation avoidance coefficient. If the coefficient is larger than the ratio of net growth rates between the HAB and non-harmful phytoplankton group, the threshold becomes infinite, and an equilibrium is not feasible. The time scale for the system to reach an equilibrium state that includes a HAB group is determined asymptotically. The dependence of a threshold condition as a controlling factor may explain the regime shift of dominant species causing HABs. The ecosystem model is fully implemented into the Regional Ocean Modeling System and applied to an idealized coastal embayment (with depths and geometry taken from San Francisco Bay) to show numerically the dominance of prey avoidance dynamics in a natural shallow water environment that includes advection and diffusion. The analytical results improve strategies for HAB modeling and provide guidance for setting model coefficients necessary to resolve a HAB event.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Carcass appearance does not influence scavenger avoidance of carnivore carrion

Abstract The selection or avoidance of certain carrion resources by vertebrate scavengers can alter the flow of nutrients in ecosystems. Evidence suggests higher trophic level carrion is scavenged by fewer vertebrate species and persists longer when compared to lower trophic level carrion, although it is unclear how scavengers distinguish between carcasses of varying species. To investigate carnivore carrion avoidance and explore sensory recognition mechanisms in scavenging species, we investigated scavenger use of intact and altered (i.e., skin, head, and feet removed) coyote— Canis latrans (carnivore) and wild pig— Sus scrofa (omnivore) carcasses experimentally placed at the Savannah River Site, SC, USA. We predicted carnivore carcasses would persist longer due to conspecific and intraguild scavenger avoidance. Further, we hypothesized visually modifying carcasses would not reduce avoidance of carnivore carrion, given scavengers likely depend largely on chemical cues when assessing carrion resources. As expected, mammalian carnivores largely avoided scavenging on coyote carcasses, resulting in carnivore carcasses having longer depletion times than wild pig carcasses at intact and altered trials. Therefore, nutrients derived from carnivore carcasses are not as readily incorporated into higher trophic levels and scavengers largely depend on olfactory cues when assessing benefits and risks associated with varying carrion resources.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Real-time avoidance of the L-mode and H-mode density limit via machine-learned stability metrics

Reliable operation of burning plasma tokamaks will require robust control strategies to avoid macroscopic instability limits such as the L-mode and H-mode density limits (LDL, HDL). In this work, we explore closed-loop avoidance of these phenomena at DIII-D using machine-learned risk metrics. Feedback control is implemented via the ‘DL Supervisor’ scheme, which regulates the chosen risk metric by reducing the density target or increasing NBI heating in real-time. Using the LDL 25 risk metric, the LDL is reproducibly suppressed. We also introduce an HDL risk metric in this study, HDL 25 , which reduces the False Positive Rate by 2x compared to the Greenwald fraction. Applying this scaling to a plasma current ramp-down, we successfully avoid an HDL-driven H/L back-transition. These experiments constitute the first demonstration of real-time DL avoidance using machine-learned risk metrics. These instability metrics outline a path to safer high-density operation, more reliable ramp-down scenarios, and improved off-normal control for next-step devices such as ITER and SPARC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Object sense and avoid system for autonomous vehicles

A system for determining a travel path for an autonomous vehicle (“AV”) to travel to a target while avoiding objects (i.e., obstacles) without the use of an imaging system is provided. An object sense and avoid (“OSA”) system detects objects in an object field that is adjacent to the AV and dynamically generates, as the AV travels, a travel path to the target to avoid the objects. The OSA system repeatedly uses sensors to collect sensor data of any objects in the object field. An object detection system then detects the objects and determines their locations based on triangulating ranges to an object as indicated by different sensors. The path planner system then plans a next travel direction for the AV to avoid the detected objects while seeking to minimize the distance traveled. The OSA system then instructs the AV to travel in the travel direction.

Beer, N. Reginald↗

Comparison of Long-Term Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage to Reference Power Generation Technologies Using CO2 Avoidance Cost in the U.S.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can sequester atmospheric CO2, while producing electricity. The CO2 avoidance cost (CAC) is used to calculate the marginal cost of avoided CO2 emissions for BECCS as compared to other established energy technologies. A comparative analysis using four different reference-case power plants for CAC calculations is performed here to evaluate the CO2 avoidance cost of BECCS implementation. Results from this work demonstrate that BECCS can generate electricity at costs competitive with other neutral emissions technologies, while simultaneously removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Approximately 73% of current coal power plants are approaching retirement by the year 2035 in the U.S. After considering CO2 sequestered from the atmosphere and coal power plant CO2 emissions displaced by BECCS, CO2 emissions can be reduced by 1.4 billion tonnes per year in the U.S. alone at a cost of $88 to $116 per tonne of CO2 removed from the atmosphere, for 10% to 90% of available biomass used, respectively. CAC calculations in this paper indicate that BECCS can help the U.S. and other countries transition to a decarbonized electricity grid, as simulations presented in this paper predict that BECCS power plants operate at lower CACs than coal plants with CCS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Results of a Multi-institutional Phase 2 Clinical Trial for 4DCT-ventilation Functional Avoidance Thoracic Radiation Therapy

Radiation pneumonitis remains a major limitation in the radiation therapy treatment of patients with lung cancer. Functional avoidance radiation therapy uses functional imaging to reduce pulmonary toxic effects by designing radiation therapy plans that reduce doses to functional regions of the lung. Lung functional imaging has been developed that uses 4-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) imaging to calculate 4DCT-based lung ventilation (4DCT-ventilation). A phase 2 multicenter study was initiated to evaluate 4DCT-ventilation functional avoidance radiation therapy. The study hypothesis was that functional avoidance radiation therapy could reduce the rate of grade ≥2 radiation pneumonitis to 12% compared with a 25% historical rate, with the trial being positive if ≤16.4% of patients experienced grade ≥2 pneumonitis.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Machine learning control for disruption and tearing mode avoidance

In this work, real-time feedback control based on machine learning algorithms (MLA) was successfully developed and tested on DIII-D plasmas to avoid tearing modes and disruptions while maximizing the plasma performance, which is measured by normalized plasma beta. Control uses MLAs that were trained with ensemble learning methods using only the data available to the real-time Plasma Control System (PCS) from several thousand DIII-D discharges. A `tearability' metric that quantifies the likelihood of the onset of 2/1 tearing modes (TM) in a given time window, and a 'disruptivity' metric that quantifies the likelihood of the onset of plasma disruptions were first tested o -line then implemented on the PCS. A real-time control system based on these MLAs was successfully tested on DIII-D discharges, using feedback algorithms to maximize β Ν while avoiding tearing modes and to dynamically adjust ramp down to avoid high-current disruptions in ramp down.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Avoided Quantum Tricritical Point and Emergence of a Canted Magnetic Phase in LaCr 1 – x Fe x Sb 3

New phases or new phenomena are often observed near-zero temperature phase transitions. These new effects represent nature’s way of avoiding quantum critical phase transitions. Here, we look at the quantum tricritical point (QTCP), the special case where two transitions are driven to zero temperature at the same time. Unlike the case of quantum critical points, the avoidance of quantum tricritical points has yet to be demonstrated. Using chemical substitution and a magnetic field, we drive LaCrSb 3 toward a quantum tricritical point. For the first time near a QTCP, here we observe the emergence of a new magnetic phase and the avoidance of the QTCP via a first order phase transition.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Disruption Prediction and Avoidance in High Beta Long Pulse KSTAR Plasmas

This research is a concentrated and coordinated experimental and physics analysis program by a small U.S. team, focused on the topical area of “Long Pulse Control” as stated in the proposal solicitation. The overall goal of the research is to produce world-class analysis regarding forecasting and avoidance of disruptions in a long-pulse, superconducting tokamak at high stability parameters (e.g. normalized beta) with direct, quantifiable figures of merit (i.e. plasma disruption rate - “disruptivity”) and its reduction based on improved stability physics and control. The research targets the backbone of the problem – the basic, main issues – to produce this quantitative analysis by: (1) Creating and applying a new physics-based paradigm to understand how to eliminate disruptions: disruption event characterization, and event chain analysis – a direct manifestation of the approach suggested in the DOE Transients Report, (2) Ensuring that the components required to produce high-quality measurements and analysis needed for disruption event characterization for the tokamak in question (here, KSTAR) exist (e.g. pressure profile peaking, high-accuracy pitch angle data, compensated low frequency toroidal mode number n = 1 mode measurement) to create a primarily physics-based disruption forecasting capability, and (3) Addressing disruption avoidance for the first time in KSTAR by attacking primary disruption ‘event chains’, utilizing the most important associated plasma measurements (dynamic n = 1 field). The focus of this work will be avoidance of macroscopic instabilities, especially global modes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Disruption avoidance via island suppression: the crucial roles of DIII-D and foundational research

The FESAC long range plan calls out disruption avoidance and mitigation as key remaining technical gaps. In discussing the roles of DIII-D and NSTX-U, the FESAC long range plan says “Additional research on these facilities, in combination with private and international collaborations, continuing support of existing university tokamak programs, and utilization of US expertise in theory and simulation, is needed to find solutions to remaining technical gaps. These gaps include disruption prediction, avoidance, and mitigation …”. Disruptions pose an existential threat to ITER and to FPPs. For a fusion reactor, unplanned shutdowns caused by disruptions will be a significant barrier to connecting such a reactor to the electric grid, even if disruption mitigation is successful. Disruption studies for ITER in recent years have largely focused on disruption mitigation (e.g., pellet injection), motivated by near-term deadlines for finalizing the design of the mitigation hardware. It is recognized, however, that mitigation alone will not suffice. The 2022 U.S. ITER Research Needs Workshop Report states that ”[d]isruptions are considered the largest threat to the ITER Research Program”, and that “[m]itigation should be a last resort”. As we discuss below, there are unresolved foundational issues that play a critical role in avoidance, and DIII-D is an ideal device for generating the data needed to address these issues.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM SciDAC) (Technical Final Report)

Runaway electrons can severely damage the plasma facing components on ITER during a major disruption and pose a major risk for tokamak fusion. It has been recognized that an adequate disruption mitigation system (DMS) is essential for the safe operation of ITER. The United States is responsible for the design and implementation of the disruption mitigation system on ITER, and in July 2016 the Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM) was launched by DOE, in a joint Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) collaboration. SCREAM was a comprehensive theory and simulation SciDAC center that provided physics guidance in the avoidance and mitigation of runaway electrons, and in tandem with domestic and international experiments, helped establish the qualitative and quantitative bases for safe operational scenarios and viable mitigation techniques. The SCREAM center assembled a national team of experts in runaway electron physics, tokamak disruptions, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, and advanced algorithms and computing. The team combined advanced simulation and analysis capability facilitated by direct participation of ASCR SciDAC institutes with theoretical models and code development by FES scientists to focus on the runaway risk for ITER and tokamaks in general. The research scope was focussed on integrated simulations of kinetic runaway electrons, including MHD and fluid models of impurity transport, within a research plan guided by theory. The specific research tasks were (1) establish the fundamental physics of runaway generation, saturation, and dynamical evolution in a tokamak; (2) examine the critical path toward runaway avoidance; and (3) investigate the viability and effectiveness of the leading candidate schemes for runaway mitigation. In all three areas, members of the team carried out scoping studies that established the readiness for rapid and critical advances, especially in the deployment and further development of large-to extreme-scale simulation tools. Our multi-pronged computational approach included (1) relativistic Fokker-Planck solvers with discretization in phase space, (2) self-consistent particle-in-cell techniques, (3) particle-based Monte-Carlo, and (4) MHD-particle hybrid simulations. Cross-check between these different methods provided an additional means for verification and further bolstered the fidelity of our physics prediction. Validation against experimental results brings confidence to the predictive capability for ITER and frequently leads to new ideas for understanding and mitigating the thermal quench driven runaway electron phenomenon.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗