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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Modeling backgrounds for the majorana demonstrator

The MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is a neutrinoless double-beta decay (0?ß ß ) experiment containing ~30 kg of p-type point contact germanium detectors enriched to 88% in 76Ge and ~14 kg of natural germanium detectors. The detectors are housed in two electroformed copper cryostats and surrounded by a graded passive shield with active muon veto. An extensive radioassay campaign was performed prior to installation to insure the use of ultra-clean materials. The DEMONSTRATOR achieved one of the lowest background rates in the region of the 0?ß ß Q-value, 15.7 ± 1.4 cts/(FWHM t y) from the low-background configuration spanning most of the 64.5 kg-yr active exposure. Nevertheless this background rate is a factor of five higher than the projected background rate. This discrepancy arises from an excess of events from the 232Th decay chain. Background model fits aim to understand this deviation from assay-based projections, potentially determine the source(s) of observed backgrounds, and allow a precision measurement of the two-neutrino double-beta decay half-life. The fits agree with earlier simulation studies, which indicate the origin of the 232Th excess is not from a near-detector component and have informed design decisions for the next-generation LEGEND experiment. Recent findings have narrowed the suspected locations for the excess activity, motivating a final simulation and assay campaign to complete the background model.

Haufe, Christopher R.↗

Data-driven background model for the CUORE experiment

Here, we present the model we developed to reconstruct the CUORE radioactive background based on the analysis of an experimental exposure of 1038.4 kg yr. The data reconstruction relies on a simultaneous Bayesian fit applied to energy spectra over a broad energy range. The high granularity of the CUORE detector, together with the large exposure and extended stable operations, allow for an in-depth exploration of both spatial and time dependence of backgrounds. We achieve high sensitivity to both bulk and surface activities of the materials of the setup, detecting levels as low as 10 nBq kg −1 and 0.1 nBq cm −2 , respectively. We compare the contamination levels we extract from the background model with prior radio-assay data, which informs future background risk mitigation strategies. The results of this background model play a crucial role in constructing the background budget for the CUPID experiment as it will exploit the same CUORE infrastructure.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Role of Forcing Uncertainty and Background Model Error Characterization in Snow Data Assimilation

Accurate specification of the model error covariances in data assimilation systems is a challenging issue. Ensemble land data assimilation methods rely on stochastic perturbations of input forcing and model prognostic fields for developing representations of input model error covariances. This article examines the limitations of using a single forcing dataset for specifying forcing uncertainty inputs for assimilating snow depth retrievals. Using an idealized data assimilation experiment, the article demonstrates that the use of hybrid forcing input strategies (either through the use of an ensemble of forcing products or through the added use of the forcing climatology) provide a better characterization of the background model error, which leads to improved data assimilation results, especially during the snow accumulation and melt-time periods. The use of hybrid forcing ensembles is then employed for assimilating snow depth retrievals from the AMSR2 (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2) instrument over two domains in the continental USA with different snow evolution characteristics. Over a region near the Great Lakes, where the snow evolution tends to be ephemeral, the use of hybrid forcing ensembles provides significant improvements relative to the use of a single forcing dataset. Over the Colorado headwaters characterized by large snow accumulation, the impact of using the forcing ensemble is less prominent and is largely limited to the snow transition time periods. The results of the article demonstrate that improving the background model error through the use of a forcing ensemble enables the assimilation system to better incorporate the observational information.

assimilation↗

A Comparison between High-Energy Radiation Background Models and SPENVIS Trapped-Particle Radiation Models

We have been assessing the effects of background radiation in low-Earth orbit for the next generation of X-ray and Cosmic-ray experiments, in particular for International Space Station orbit. Outside the areas of high fluxes of trapped radiation, we have been using parameterizations developed by the Fermi team to quantify the high-energy induced background. For the low-energy background, we have been using the AE8 and AP8 SPENVIS models to determine the orbit fractions where the fluxes of trapped particles are too high to allow for useful operation of the experiment. One area we are investigating is how the fluxes of SPENVIS predictions at higher energies match the fluxes at the low-energy end of our parameterizations. I will summarize our methodology for background determination from the various sources of cosmogenic and terrestrial radiation and how these compare to SPENVIS predictions in overlapping energy ranges.

high-energy radiation↗

The background model of the CUPID-Mo $0\nu\beta\beta$ experiment

CUPID-Mo, located in the Laboratoire Souterrain de Modane (France), was a demonstrator for the next generation 0vββ decay experiment, CUPID. It consisted of an array of 20 enriched Li 2 100 MoO 4 bolometers and 20 Ge light detectors and has demonstrated that the technology of scintillating bolometers with particle identification capabilities is mature. Furthermore, CUPID-Mo can inform and validate the background prediction for CUPID. In this paper, we present a detailed model of the CUPID-Mo backgrounds. This model is able to describe well the features of the experimental data and enables studies of the 2vββ decay and other processes with high precision. We also measure the radio-purity of the Li 2 100 MoO 4 crystals which are found to be sufficient for the CUPID goals. Finally, we also obtain a background index in the region of interest of 3.7 $^{+0.9}_{-0.8}$ (stat) $^{+1.5}_{-0.7}$ (syst) x 10 -3 counts/ ΔE FWHM / mol iso / year the lowest in a bolometric Ovββ decay experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Too Good to Be True? Evaluation of Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions Used in Policy Models

Background: Models can help guide colorectal cancer screening policy. Although models are carefully calibrated and validated, there is less scrutiny of assumptions about test performance. Methods: We examined the validity of the CRC-SPIN model and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions. Standard sensitivity assumptions, consistent with published decision analyses, assume sensitivity equal to 0.75 for diminutive adenomas (<6 mm), 0.85 for small adenomas (6–10 mm), 0.95 for large adenomas (≥10 mm), and 0.95 for preclinical cancer. We also selected adenoma sensitivity that resulted in more accurate predictions. Targets were drawn from the Wheat Bran Fiber study. In the study, we examined how well the model predicted outcomes measured over a three-year follow-up period, including the number of adenomas detected, the size of the largest adenoma detected, and incident colorectal cancer. Results: Using standard sensitivity assumptions, the model predicted adenoma prevalence that was too low (42.5% versus 48.9% observed, with 95% confidence interval 45.3%–50.7%) and detection of too few large adenomas (5.1% versus 14.% observed, with 95% confidence interval 11.8%–17.4%). Predictions were close to targets when we set sensitivities to 0.20 for diminutive adenomas, 0.60 for small adenomas, 0.80 for 10- to 20-mm adenomas, and 0.98 for adenomas 20 mm and larger. Conclusions: Colonoscopy may be less accurate than currently assumed, especially for diminutive adenomas. Alternatively, the CRC-SPIN model may not accurately simulate onset and progression of adenomas in higher-risk populations. Impact: Misspecification of either colonoscopy sensitivity or disease progression in high-risk populations may affect the predicted effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. When possible, decision analyses used to inform policy should address these uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Cosmic-Ray Background Flux Model Baed on a Gamma-Ray Large Area Space Telescope Baloon Flight Engineering

Cosmic-ray background fluxes were modeled based on existing measurements and theories and are presented here. The model, originally developed for the Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope (GLAST) Balloon Experiment, covers the entire solid angle (4(pi) sr), the sensitive energy range of the instrument ((approx) 10 MeV to 100 GeV) and abundant components (proton, alpha, e(sup -), e(sup +), (mu)(sup -), (mu)(sup +) and gamma). It is expressed in analytic functions in which modulations due to the solar activity and the Earth geomagnetism are parameterized. Although the model is intended to be used primarily for the GLAST Balloon Experiment, model functions in low-Earth orbit are also presented and can be used for other high energy astrophysical missions. The model has been validated via comparison with the data of the GLAST Balloon Experiment.

COSMIC RADIATION↗

Reactor rate modulation oscillation analysis with two detectors in Double Chooz

A θ 13 oscillation analysis based on the observed antineutrino rates at the Double Chooz far and near detectors for different reactor power conditions is presented. This approach provides a so far unique simultaneous determination of θ 13 and the total background rates without relying on any assumptions on the specific background contributions. The analysis comprises 865 days of data collected in both detectors with at least one reactor in operation. The oscillation results are enhanced by the use of 24.06 days (12.74 days) of reactor-off data in the far (near) detector. The analysis considers the ${\overline{\nu}}_e$ interactions up to a visible energy of 8.5 MeV, using the events at higher energies to build a cosmogenic background model considering fast-neutrons interactions and 9 Li decays. The background-model-independent determination of the mixing angle yields sin 2 (2 θ 13 ) = 0.094 ± 0.017, being the best-fit total background rates fully consistent with the cosmogenic background model. A second oscillation analysis is also performed constraining the total background rates to the cosmogenic background estimates. While the central value is not significantly modified due to the consistency between the reactor-off data and the background estimates, the addition of the background model reduces the uncertainty on θ 13 to 0.015. Along with the oscillation results, the normalization of the anti-neutrino rate is measured with a precision of 0.86%, reducing the 1.43% uncertainty associated to the expectation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Predicting Metabolic Reaction Networks with Perturbation-Theory Machine Learning (PTML) Models

Background: Checking the connectivity (structure) of complex Metabolic Reaction Networks(MRNs) models proposed for new microorganisms with promising properties is an importantgoal for chemical biology. Objective: In principle, we can perform a hand-on checking (Manual Curation). However, this is achallenging task due to the high number of combinations of pairs of nodes (possible metabolic reactions). Results: The CPTML linear model obtained using the LDA algorithm is able to discriminate nodes(metabolites) with the correct assignation of reactions from incorrect nodes with values of accuracy,specificity, and sensitivity in the range of 85-100% in both training and external validation dataseries. Methods: In this work, we used Combinatorial Perturbation Theory and Machine Learning techniquesto seek a CPTML model for MRNs >40 organisms compiled by Barabasis’ group. First, wequantified the local structure of a very large set of nodes in each MRN using a new class of node indexcalled Markov linear indices fk. Next, we calculated CPT operators for 150000 combinationsof query and reference nodes of MRNs. Last, we used these CPT operators as inputs of differentML algorithms. Conclusion: Meanwhile, PTML models based on Bayesian network, J48-Decision Tree and RandomForest algorithms were identified as the three best non-linear models with accuracy greaterthan 97.5%. The present work opens the door to the study of MRNs of multiple organisms usingPTML models.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗

Legacy Analysis of Milky Way Dwarf Spheroidal Satellite Galaxies: An Update

Studies of Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) data coincident with dwarf spheroidal satellite galaxies (dSphs) of the Milky Way have put the most stringent constraints on models of annihilating dark matter (DM) with candidate masses in the GeV–TeV range. Recent results found the presence of small, local significance excesses from these targets, at the 2σ–3σ level. However, these excesses disagree on the predicted properties of the DM candidate, and their significance vanishes when considering correction factors for the number of trials. In this work, we apply key improvements to the analysis of dSphs. We use stricter cuts on the data, implement a method to adaptively model the background, and assume an updated framework for DM annihilation. We find that our improved background modeling leads to a better agreement between the model and the data. This produces an increase in the local and global significance of the dSph excess compared to previous studies. Finally, we find that the DM properties obtained in this work are less dependent on the sample of dSphs being considered compared to previous studies, while remaining in agreement with the predictions from the Galactic center excess observed by Fermi/LAT and the antiproton excess observed by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS-02). Considering our improvements, a future significant increase in the number of dwarfs may lead to a definitive confirmation or exclusion of the DM interpretation of the Galactic center excess.

cold dark matter↗

Comparing Theoretically Scaled Biomechanical Models

BACKGROUND An investigation into incorporating space suit aspects required a 50th-percentile male model which was not part of the existing dataset of models. Previously, theoretical models for 5th-percentile female and 95th-percentile male were created utilizing a scaled test subject as close as possible to the target height and weight. Scaling factors were created by taking the height ratio and applying it uniformly to the model body segments, then fine tuning to ensure the theoretical model’s height is as expected. This study was initiated to examine the existing method of isometrically scaling in OpenSim [1,2] and to create alternative methods which do not rely on an existing subject being close in height and weight to the theoretical model of interest. Generating a theoretical biomechanical model provides additional abilities without the reliance on available OpenSim models or real subjects. Gained abilities include creating different percentile models and attaining representative anthropometry for any target height/weight, such as targeting specific crew populations or gaps within the current dataset. METHODS AND RESULTS This study includes 3 methods for generating the theoretical model; utilizing the modified unscaled OpenSim Full Body Rajagopal Model (FBRM) [3,4], a dataset of scaled OpenSim models, and existing scaling factors from Dumas et al. [5]. All methods use the Anthropometric Survey of US Army Personnel (ANSUR II) [6] as an input of necessary anthropometric measurements. The following measurements are retrieved from the ANSUR II collection: mass, stature, cervicale height, acromial height, axilla height, waist height, trochanterion height, lateral femoral epicondyle height, lateral malleolus height, acromion-radiale length, radiale-stylion length, palm length, ball of foot length, bicristal breadth, bimalleolar breadth. Some of the measurements are direct segment lengths and others are utilized to derive segment lengths. Height, weight, and age ranges are the required inputs to parse the collection for a mean value of the measurements. A simple iterative process may be necessary for the output of mean mass and stature consistent with the theoretical model of interest. In some cases, one may specify exact values instead of a range but that is dependent upon whether those exact values pertain to a single subject from the ANSUR II collection. Equations from Dumas et al. were used to calculate scaling factors for the two methods that utilize OpenSim scaled and unscaled models. In the third method, Dumas’ scaling factors were used directly instead of generating our own. After scaling factors are achieved, they are applied along with the mass and segment lengths retrieved from ANSUR II in order to calculate the segment mass, Center of Mass (CoM), mass Moment of Inertia (MoI), and the joint location in the parent frame. The theoretical models from the different methods were compared to the previous existing method of isometrically scaling in OpenSim, as well as the standards found in NASA STD-3000 [7] and the NASA Human Integration Design Handbook [8]. The whole-body center of mass is the main comparison performed between the models and the standards. The body segment mass properties were also compared when possible. In some cases, the standards do not provide complete data, or the center of mass location is not provided with respect to the appropriate joint coordinate system. For a 50th-percentile male subject, results from isometric scaling in OpenSim and the method utilizing the unscaled FBRM were compared to the standards in NASA STD-3000. According to the standard, the whole-body vertical CoM location was taken from the head vertex to the CoM. The standards provide 80.2 cm for the CoM vertical component whereas isometric scaling in OpenSim and utilizing the unscaled FBRM provide 82.2 and 82.3 cm, respectively. Through definition, the whole-body CoM in the medial/lateral direction agreed across the models. Investigation is on-going to clearly identify the reference point pertaining to dorsal/ventral whole-body CoM position in standards and relate that to the theoretical models. REFERENCES [1] Delp, S.L., et al., “OpenSim: Open-source Software to Create and Analyze Dynamic Simulations of Movement”, IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, (2007). [2] Seth, A., Hicks J.L., Uchida, T.K., Habib, A., Dembia, C.L., Dunne, J.J., Ong, C.F., DeMers, M.S., Rajagopal, A., Millard, M., Hamner, S.R., Arnold, E.M., Yong, J.R., Lakshmikanth, S.K., Sherman,n M.A., Delp, S.L. OpenSim: Simulating musculoskeletal dynamics and neuromuscular control to study human and animal movement. Plos Computational Biology, 14(7). (2018) [3] R. K. Huffman, W. K. Thompson, C. A. Gallo, L. J. Quiocho, “Improvement of Scaling and Inverse Kinematic Results with Additional Upper Body Joints Added to Opensim Rajagopal Model”, NASA Human Research Program Investigator’s Workshop, (2019). [4] Huffman R.K., Thompson W., Gallo C., “Modified OpenSim Rajagopal Full Body Model”, New Technology Report, MSC-26872-1. (August 2020). [5] Dumas R., Cheze L. and Verriest J., 2007. “Adjustments to McConville et al. and Young et al. body segment inertial parameters”. Journal of Biomechanics 40, pp. 543-553 [6] Gordon C.C., 2012 “Anthropometric Survey of U.S. Army Personnel: Methods and Summary Statistics”, US Army Natick Soldier RD&E Center. [7] NASA STD-3000/REV-B, 1995. “The Man-System Integration Standards” [8] NASA/SP-2010-3407/REV-1, 2014. “The Human Integration Design Handbook (HIDH)”

F N Matari↗

A hierarchical Bayesian model for background variation in radiation source localization

In this paper, we apply a new model to account for varying background radiation in radiological source localization. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model that simultaneously infers background and source location parameters without requiring separate estimation of the background radiation at each detector location. We employ a simplified photon transport model to reduce the computational expense of Bayesian model calibration. Furthermore, we demonstrate the model accuracy by localizing a cesium-137 source in a simulated city block, and we analyze experimental field measurements with varying background. In both cases, the model provides sufficient fidelity that we can locate the source while simultaneously estimating background radiation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Statistical tools for a better optical model

Background: Modern statistical tools provide the ability to compare the information content of observables and provide a path to explore which experiments would be most useful to give insight into and constrain theoretical models. Purpose: Here we study three such tools in the context of nuclear reactions with the goal of constraining the optical potential. Method: The three statistical tools examined are (i) the principal component analysis, (ii) the sensitivity analysis based on derivatives, and (iii) the Bayesian evidence. We first apply these tools to a toy-model case, comparing the form of the imaginary part of the optical potential. Then we consider two different reaction observables, elastic angular distributions and polarization data for reactions on 48 Ca and 208 Pb at two different beam energies. Results: For the toy-model case, we find significant discrimination power in the sensitivities and the Bayesian evidence, showing clearly that the volume imaginary term is more useful to describe scattering at higher energies. When comparing between elastic cross sections and polarization data using realistic optical models, sensitivity studies indicate that both observables are roughly equally sensitive but the variability of the optical model parameters is strongly angle dependent. The Bayesian evidence shows some variability between the two observables, but the Bayes factor obtained is not sufficient to discriminate between angular distributions and polarization. Conclusions: From the cases considered, we conclude that, in general, elastic scattering angular distributions have similar impact in constraining the optical potential parameters compared with the polarization data. The angular ranges for the optimum experimental constraints can vary significantly with the observable considered.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Grey-box modeling and application for building energy simulations - A critical review

Grey-box modeling, as one of the three fundamental modeling techniques for building energy models, has many advantages compared with black-box modeling and white-box modeling. Additionally, it has been widely applied to solve problems of building technologies, such as building load estimation, control and optimization, and building-grid integration. However, a thorough review of grey-box modeling is not available. This review study systematically investigated various aspects of grey-box modeling for buildings. First, the fundamental aspects of grey-box modeling are presented, including the theoretical background, modeling of building elements, modeling order, modeling diagram, and order reduction. Second, the detailed modeling approaches are discussed. Third, multiple applications of grey-box modeling are investigated for building energy domain, which are categorized into the following groups: heat dynamics analysis, thermal load estimation, building control and optimization, district/urban scale energy modeling, and building-grid integration. Finally, the available software packages for grey-box modeling are compared. Overall, the challenges of using grey-box modeling can be summarized as follows: (1) the theoretical limitations and assumptions of grey-box modeling are unclear; (2) grey-box model naming convention and structure are confusing; (3) grey-box model creation is vague; (4) suitable applications of grey-box models are unknown; and (5) grey-box models lack unified software solutions for wider adoption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An evaluation of the use of new Doppler methods for detecting longitudinal function abnormalities in a pacing-induced heart failure model

BACKGROUND: Doppler tissue echocardiography and color M-mode Doppler flow propagation velocity have proven useful in evaluating cross-sections of patients with left ventricular (LV) dysfunction, but experience with serial changes is limited. Purpose and methods: We tested their use by evaluating the temporal changes of LV function in a pacing-induced congestive heart failure model. Rapid ventricular pacing was initiated and maintained in 20 dogs for 4 weeks. Echocardiography was performed at baseline and weekly during brief pacing cessation. RESULTS: With rapid pacing, LV volume significantly increased and ejection fraction (57%-28%), stroke volume (37-18 mL), and mitral annulus systolic velocity (16.1-6.6 cm/s) by Doppler tissue echocardiography significantly decreased, with ejection fraction and mitral annulus systolic velocity closely correlated (r = 0.706, P <.0001). In contrast to the mitral inflow velocities, mitral annulus early diastolic velocity decreased steadily (12.3-7.3 cm/s) resulting in a dramatic decrease in mitral annulus early/late (1.22-0.57) diastolic velocity with no tendency toward pseudonormalization. The color M-mode Doppler flow propagation velocity also showed significant steady decrease (57-24 cm/s) throughout the pacing period. Multiple regression analysis chose mitral annulus systolic velocity (r = 0.895, P <.0001) and propagation velocity (r = 0.782, P <.0001) for the most important factor predicting LV systolic and diastolic function, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Doppler tissue echocardiography and color M-mode Doppler flow could evaluate the serial deterioration in LV dysfunction throughout the pacing period. These were more useful in quantifying progressive LV dysfunction than conventional ehocardiographic techniques, and were probably relatively independent of preload. These techniques could be suitable for longitudinal evaluation in addition to the cross-sectional study.

Evaluation Studies↗