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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Improving Cost and Efficiency of the Scalable Solid Oxide Fuel Cells Power System

The objective of this project was to design and develop a 20kW range small-scale solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) power system for applications such as data centers and commercial buildings. The original plan included a 5,000 hours demonstration and a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) which were dropped as part of project termination. The original project plan was to use a stack with a cross-flow cell design which had previously been tested for 500 hours at a community college in Malta, NY. However, it was decided to move to the advanced R-SOFC co-flow cell developed under Department of Energy Award DE-FE0031971. The advanced cell design has the advantage of a larger active area for the same manufacturing footprint which results in fewer required cells for the same stack power, hence a higher volumetric power density (kW/L) and lower cost per kW than the original cross-flow cell design. A full SOFC system Simulink model was developed and calibrated with testing data from a fuel cell stack and BOP (balance of plant) components. The simulation results from the calibrated model showed an acceptable match with the experimental data. A structural analysis conducted for various load scenarios indicated no high stress areas for all spatial directions. Major electrical system components were acquired, built and successfully tested. System sensors were verified and validated against controls. Safety checks, a diagnostic check, PID tuning, and control software commissioning tasks were also conducted. The power electronics prototype was delivered and trial testing completed. Balance of Plant component testing and simulation work was conducted to characterize Reformer-Heat Exchanger heat transfer and backpressure and reformer catalyst methane conversion and product selectivity. Simulations were conducted to design the Anode and Cathode fluid passages and size the air-air and fuel-fuel heat exchangers. A Burner operation map was created from test data and the Anode Gas Recirculation blower was tested to evaluate its durability. The SOFC system used a horizontal style design where components sit directly on a casting with a direct connection to the skid. This design has efficient packaging and a small footprint with approximate dimensions of 750 mm x 700 mm x 1700 mm. An SOFC system was built and successfully tested at the Malta, NY facility The system for over 500 hours under load of which over 300 hours was at full load of 20 kW.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Analysis Round Robin of a Retrofit of the Ivanpah Concentrating Solar Plant with a Molten-Salt System with Thermal Energy Storage

While the fidelity of technoeconomic analysis (TEA) models for concentrating solar thermal systems has improved in recent years, there is a lack of consensus on the specific inputs used to forecast performance of a newly built tower system due to a lack of validations and post-mortems available to the public. This effort is a joint initiative between multiple international organizations to validate and compare their TEA models. The specific case study is a proposed retrofit of one unit of the Ivanpah Solar Energy Generating System to include molten-salt storage, replacing the steam generation system with a molten-salt receiver, salt-to-steam heat exchanger train, and new balance of plant while keeping the existing steam turbine, solar field, and interconnection in place, using plant data for calibration. This manuscript discusses several of the agreed-upon assumptions for this study as well as a preliminary analysis from prior work that motivates the study.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Wind

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: VII. Bayesian estimation of gain and absolute calibration for cosmic microwave background experiments

We present a Bayesian calibration algorithm for cosmic microwave background (CMB) observations as implemented within the global end-to-end BEYONDPLANCK framework and applied to the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) data. Following the most recent Planck analysis, we decomposed the full time-dependent gain into a sum of three nearly orthogonal components: one absolute calibration term, common to all detectors, one time-independent term that can vary between detectors, and one time-dependent component that was allowed to vary between one-hour pointing periods. Each term was then sampled conditionally on all other parameters in the global signal model through Gibbs sampling. The absolute calibration is sampled using only the orbital dipole as a reference source, while the two relative gain components were sampled using the full sky signal, including the orbital and Solar CMB dipoles, CMB fluctuations, and foreground contributions. We discuss various aspects of the data that influence gain estimation, including the dipole-polarization quadrupole degeneracy and processing masks. Comparing our solution to previous pipelines, we find good agreement in general, with relative deviations of -0.67% (-0.84%) for 30 GHz, 0.12% (-0.04%) for 44 GHz and -0.03% (-0.64%) for 70 GHz, compared to Planck PR4 and Planck 2018, respectively. We note that the BEYONDPLANCK calibration was performed globally, which results in better inter-frequency consistency than previous estimates. Additionally, WMAP observations were used actively in the BEYONDPLANCK analysis, which both breaks internal degeneracies in the Planck data set and results in an overall better agreement with WMAP. Finally, we used a Wiener filtering approach to smoothing the gain estimates. We show that this method avoids artifacts in the correlated noise maps as a result of oversmoothing the gain solution, which is difficult to avoid with methods like boxcar smoothing, as Wiener filtering by construction maintains a balance between data fidelity and prior knowledge. Although our presentation and algorithm are currently oriented toward LFI processing, the general procedure is fully generalizable to other experiments, as long as the Solar dipole signal is available to be used for calibration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Refined interpretation of electron temperature response to neutral beam injection at DIII-D

Accurate particle and power deposition profiles of neutral beam injection (NBI) are essential to transport studies, and that information is usually acquired through Monte Carlo simulations with a given collisional model. The deposition process of the energetic beam particles leads to the informative electron temperature (T e ) evolution trajectory, which can be captured by electron cyclotron emission (ECE) system due to its good spatial and temporal resolution. Previously, some work has been done to interpret the T e responses to the pulsed NBI as a linear heating source with Fourier-based techniques, although that approach fell short when the fast ion slowing-down time becomes significant (~100 ms). It has been observed in DIII-D that the modulated NBI pulses (10–50 Hz) reduce local core T e values ~0.1 keV through cold electron dilution in high-T e (>2 keV) plasmas alongside accumulative heating. Here, a novel approach to interpret the T e response to NBI was developed by linearizing and modeling the detailed T e evolution trajectory using coherently averaged ECE data based on the different time scales of the terms in the local power and particle balance equations. The technique does not require absolute calibrations of ECE and is independent of collisional models. The resulting beam deposition profiles show good consistency and reasonable agreement with Monte Carlo calculations based on the atomic data from the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure (ADAS). Local electron density response measured by Thomson scattering (TS) also suggests the same features when the beam pulse is large enough for that diagnostic to resolve. The remaining discrepancies are also discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Solar PV

The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) research platform. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes the behavior of a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane MC250 electrolyzer system, manufactured by Nel Hydrogen , [1] when fed historical data generated by the 430-kW, fixed-axis solar photovoltaic (PV) array located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus. (While the electrolyzer balance of plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack.) Solar PV power output data for the 2020 calendar year were categorized on a daily basis by total energy generation and standard deviation. Each day was then ranked by these metrics, and the 25th, 50th, and 100th percentiles were selected. The 75th percentile day did not exhibit sufficient variability to make for a valuable experiment. A similar process was used for the related historical wind dataset . [2] The historical days in 2020 that represented these percentiles are Dec. 19, March 29, and May 4, respectively. The entire solar day’s power profile was then fed through the MC250 electrolyzer. Due to its length, the 100th percentile day experiment was split into two parts, and the final 3 hours of the solar day were not captured. These final 3 hours contained no spikes or dips of interest and simply represented a slow decay of input solar power. Also, a single timestamp (13:13:47 on Jan. 14, 2026) was lost in the hydrogen system supervisory control and data acquisition. Finally, during the 25th percentile experiment (solar day Dec. 19, 2020) data recording was lost from 11:00:13 to 11:14:45. The roughly 15 minutes of the solar profile were rerun at the end of the experiment and spliced into this time slot during post-processing. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical solar profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the slide deck “Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis: NLR Historical Solar PV Analysis and Profile Generation” accessible with this data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single solar PV electrolysis experiment and is formatted as: {technology}_{percentile}_{scaling factor} For instance, “solarPV-430kW_25_2x.zip” reports the experiment using the 25th percentile solar data from the historical 2020 solar PV dataset, scaled to 200%. Scaling factors were applied to the generated solar PV power output files to more closely match the 1.25-MW capacity of the electrolyzer. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and solar power input. A PDF file detailing the historical solar data statistical analysis used to generate the solar profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_solarPV_experiments.csv". [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser . [2] data.nlr.gov/submissions/316 .

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of wind turbine flow through nacelle-mounted lidars: a review

This article provides a comprehensive review of the most recent advances in the planning, execution, and analysis of inflow and wake measurements from nacelle-mounted wind Doppler lidars. Lidars installed on top of wind turbines provide a holistic view of the inflow and wake characteristics required to characterize and optimize wind turbine performance, carry out model validation and calibration, and aid in real-time control. The need to balance the enhanced capabilities and limitations of lidars compared to traditional anemometers inspired a broad variety of approaches for scan design and wind reconstruction, which we discuss in this review. We give particular emphasis to identifying common guidelines and gaps in the available literature with the aim of providing an exhaustive picture of the state-of-the-art techniques for reconstructing wind plant flow using nacelle-mounted lidars.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

CHESS 2025: Orthorectified airborne RGB imagery from NEON AOP surveys

This dataset provides Level 1 (L1) and Level 3 (L3) orthorectified Red-Green-Blue (RGB) imagery collected for the 2025 Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS). This high-resolution imagery is a photographic record of red, green, and blue visible light from sunlight reflected off of the Earth’s surface. The data comprise full-color images of the ground surface and are primarily intended to provide context to imaging spectroscopy and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data. The data were acquired over three study domains in the Upper Gunnison river basin: the upper East River watershed (CRBU); Almont Triangle and Taylor Canyon (ALMO); and Upper Taylor River watershed (UPTA) between 2025-06-13 and 2025-07-15. RGB images were acquired using the PhaseOne IXM-RS150F high-resolution digital camera onboard the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP). The package data include both an L1 product comprising one camera frame per file and an L3 mosaic aligned to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 13N grid and the World Geodetic System (WGS) 84 projection. Both products are provided in geotif (.tif) format at 0.1 m ground resolution. The bulk of the imagery was collected during the main CHESS field campaign from June 13 to July 15, 2025. Additional images of a portion of the Upper Taylor (UPTA) domain were collected on September 18, 2025, to fill gaps in imagery identified after the main campaign was complete. RGB camera imagery is not radiometrically calibrated, and therefore pixel values should not be exploited for scientific analysis. Pixel values have undergone a manual adjustment to enhance feature identification. The imagery is rigorously geolocated which does allow for reliable geometric information to be retrieved. To generate the orthorectified imagery, the NEON AOP camera captured visible spectrum in red, green, and blue bands. The raw images were then processed using NEON’s camera orthorectification workflow. A boresight calibration flight was made to build a complete camera, distortion, and alignment model. Color balance/white balance and exposure correction were applied to the raw RGB images. The corrected images were orthorectified by ray-tracing image pixels to a lidar-derived digital surface model (DSM) mesh using the refined camera model, outputting orthorectified raster pixels on a regular grid. Flightline-level data were mosaicked by selecting per-pixel contributions from overlapping orthorectified images using line-of-sight (LOS) zenith angle minimization to reduce edge distortions. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgement: Field and remote-sensing data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). This work was also supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Workflow of Elucidating Viral Impact on Mediating Microbial Response to In-situ Experimental Warming: Bridging microbial modeling to carbon and mineral modeling

Viruses are abundant in soils and shape microbial communities in ways that can potentially influence ecosystem processes, yet their contributions to carbon cycling and mineral transformations remain poorly understood. Here we present a multi-phase framework that links virus-host interactions to soil biogeochemistry by combining ecological simulations, genome- and community-scale metabolic modeling, and statistical and machine-learning analyses. We first calibrated microbial abundance profiles under explicit infection scenarios to capture how viral pressure alters community structure, then explored alternative interaction strategies, including kill-the-winner, piggyback-the-winner, and mixed lytic-lysogenic modes, through forward simulations. These ecological shifts were translated into metabolic consequences using exchange fluxes summarized into biologically meaningful categories, while integrated statistical and machine-learning screens elevated subtle but consistent signals. Application of this framework revealed that viral infections shift the balance between organic and inorganic fluxes, redirecting metabolism from diffuse organic transformations toward inorganic pools such as protons and CO 2 , directly linking viral regulation to respiration and soil carbon balance. The roll-up analysis also isolated perturbations in critical mineral ions, including magnesium, manganese, zinc, and copper, which serve as essential enzymatic cofactors. In piggyback-the-winner scenarios, uptake of these ions was strongly suppressed. Contrasting viral strategies produced distinct community structures and metabolic outcomes, from broad suppression under kill-the-winner dynamics to dramatic redistributions under high-lytic and high-gain lysogenic regimes that collapsed vulnerable microbial populations while promoting opportunists. Together, these results provide a tractable path to trace viral perturbations from host abundance shifts to metabolic flux adjustments and ecosystem-scale processes, offering a practical way to include viruses in earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated protonic ceramic electrochemical cell for sustainable energy economy using water-energy nexus framework

Reliance on fossil fuels will continue for the next decades even though there are global pushes away from it to mitigate the overarching climate challenge, most especially by its highest consumers and availability. While there is a hastening global shift away from fossil fuel, integrating its assets into this technology helps limit the risk and future losses of stranded assets and reduce the cost of investment in the new technologies. Moreover, the generation of electricity from intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind has witnessed a significant surge in recent years, leading to a pressing demand for practical energy storage systems. Electrical energy storage is anticipated to play a pivotal role in the future global energy system, facilitating load-leveling operations to support the greater integration of renewable and distributed generation. Reversible electrochemical cells (RECs) offer a promising option for addressing the fossil fuel assets integration and energy storage challenges through the interconversion between electrical and chemical energy and concurrent utilizing carbon emission. In their electrolysis mode, the RECs convert electricity into durable, storable, and portable valuable chemical fuels such as syngas and methane. Conversely, the produced chemical fuels can be used as reactants in the fuel cell mode to generate electricity on demand with minimal (hydrocarbons) or zero when H2 or NH3 is used emissions. However, a challenging goal for this type of technology remains to achieve optimal operation and high roundtrip efficiencies, which has hindered the deployment of previous electrochemical cells. This dissertation demonstrates how reversible protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (RePCECs) can be integrated with fossil fuel power plants and renewable energy sources as a potential energy storage system. In this work, integrated RePCEC systems are designed and examined using computational modeling at scales to determine appropriate system configurations and operating conditions that achieve high roundtrip efficiencies. Cell level design of the PCEC is the first approach, several cells are assembled for the stack level model that is integrated into combined cycle powerplant and solar photovoltaic for the system level model. After critical literature review, this answered the operational and integration research questions proposed to address these challenges. The designed systems perform two functions, utilizing captured CO2 and storing renewable energy through co-electrolysis of steam and CO2. The co-electrolysis reaction involves endothermic water electrolysis and exothermic methanation reaction. To enhance high roundtrip efficiency, there is a need for thermal balance and management in the electrolysis mode. This involves operating the RePCEC stack under conditions that favor methane production to balance out heat needed by water electrolysis, it crucial for the RePCEC system operation. Methanation is enhanced by low temperatures. Leveraging on fabricated BCZYYb-electrolyte RePCEC, the cell model designed revealed that the optimum temperature for methane production is 450℃ at atmospheric pressure. Thus, to achieve optimum system performance, operating in the temperature range 450-525℃ is recommended at the given configuration, combining between the optimum temperature for methane production and temperature for the optimum stack roundtrip efficiency. Configuration with carbon capture system and purge stream is the optimum configuration from the seven conceptualized and evaluated. The modeling outcomes include a thermodynamic examination of integrated RePCEC systems, calibration of cell and stack level models, and steady-state simulation and integration into a 600MW combined cycle power plant retrofitted with two two-stage membrane-based carbon capture system and a wastewater treatment and recovery unit. At 100% powerplant loading, the stack and system roundtrip efficiencies are 72% and 51.37% respectively. Adding a purge stream for produced hydrogen at the system downstream improves the efficiencies to 74 and 55.48% respectively. At atmospheric pressure and 525℃, the system model suggests that a stack roundtrip of 82% is achievable, and overall system efficiency increases by reducing the energy consumption by the balance of plant components for steam generation and storage. Economic analysis of the process gives levelized cost of methane as $2.24/MMBtu lower than the conventional production route that range between $3.46/MMBtu and $9.85/MMBtu. The lifecycle analysis shows that the global warming potential for the production of methane and hydrogen from the RePCEC system is 3.83 kg CO2 eq which is lower than 9.35 kg CO2 eq emission during steam methane reforming for hydrogen production. This answered both the environmental and economic concerns in the raised research question. The proposed RePCEC configuration and analysis carried out in this dissertation to address the surge in renewable energy and challenges with PCEC technology hold significant potential in achieving large-scale energy storage while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. These advancements, coupled with suitable governmental policies and incentive programs, have the potential to economically disrupt the natural gas industries by using RePCEC systems for methane production, thereby making them more favorable for eventual implementation and commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computationally inexpensive part-scale thermal history of additive friction-stir deposition

This study presents an analytical model for steady-state power generation and tool heat loss in additive friction-stir deposition (AFSD), developed to enable part-scale thermal simulation while remaining computationally inexpensive. The model predicts total generated power, yielding 3.7–4.7 kW across deposition temperature setpoints of 400–460 °C for the deposition of AA6061 with a Be-Cu tool. This corresponds to 90–95% of the reported spindle power. Tool heat loss is experimentally determined by calibrating a steady-state energy balance between the generated power, the substrate-deposition thermal gradient, and a temperature dependent tool heat loss term: q tool (T) = a + b (T - 400°C) with a = 2.7 x 10 6 Wm -2 and b = 9.5 x 10 3 Wm -2 K -1 . The calibration indicates that about 69% of the generated heat is conducted into the tool for this configuration, which is much higher than previously reported. The calibrated heat-source is implemented in finite element software (Adamantine) to simulate the transient thermal history of a 100 cm 3 representative build in 8 min on a standard desktop (at 0.635 mm build-height resolution). For the first three layers, the substrate temperatures between simulation and experiment are within 10% mean absolute percentage error. Sensitivity analysis indicates that uncertainties in average deposition temperature and deformation localization (stir-zone geometry, depth, and spatial dependance of strain-rate and flow stress) dominate model variance, motivating additional experimental verification.

Additive Friction-Stir Deposition↗
DOE OSTI2023

An empirical approach to model selection: weak lensing and intrinsic alignments

ABSTRACT In cosmology, we routinely choose between models to describe our data, and can incur biases due to insufficient models or lose constraining power with overly complex models. In this paper, we propose an empirical approach to model selection that explicitly balances parameter bias against model complexity. Our method uses synthetic data to calibrate the relation between bias and the χ2 difference between models. This allows us to interpret χ2 values obtained from real data (even if catalogues are blinded) and choose a model accordingly. We apply our method to the problem of intrinsic alignments – one of the most significant weak lensing systematics, and a major contributor to the error budget in modern lensing surveys. Specifically, we consider the example of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3), and compare the commonly used non-linear alignment (NLA) and tidal alignment and tidal torque (TATT) models. The models are calibrated against bias in the Ωm–S8 plane. Once noise is accounted for, we find that it is possible to set a threshold Δχ2 that guarantees an analysis using NLA is unbiased at some specified level Nσ and confidence level. By contrast, we find that theoretically defined thresholds (based on, e.g. p-values for χ2) tend to be overly optimistic, and do not reliably rule out cosmological biases up to ∼1–2σ. Considering the real DES Y3 cosmic shear results, based on the reported difference in χ2 from NLA and TATT analyses, we find a roughly $30{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ chance that were NLA to be the fiducial model, the results would be biased (in the Ωm–S8 plane) by more than 0.3σ. More broadly, the method we propose here is simple and general, and requires a relatively low level of resources. We foresee applications to future analyses as a model selection tool in many contexts.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CO 2 Capture Characteristics of Hyperbranched Poly(alkylene imine): A Molecular Dynamics Simulation Approach

This study explores the CO 2 capture characteristics of hyperbranched poly(ethylenimine) (HB-PEI) and poly- (propyleneimine) (HB-PPI) through molecular dynamics simulations using density functional theory-calibrated force fields. Key features such as density, free volume, glass transition temperature, CO 2 /H 2 O distribution, and molecular diffusion are systematically investigated to elucidate structure−function relationships under dry and hydrated conditions. HB-PEI demonstrates a slightly higher density and lower free volume compared to HB-PPI yet shows superior CO 2 capture due to the high amine concentration. Glass transition analysis indicates a higher thermal mobility in HBPEI, enhancing the CO 2 diffusivity. Pair correlation and coordination analyses confirm a stronger affinity of CO 2 with primary and secondary amines, particularly in hydrated environments where water competes with CO 2 for binding sites. Despite its more compact structure, HB-PEI outperformed HB-PPI in CO 2 and H 2 O transport, as confirmed by higher diffusion coefficients across all hydration levels. These findings highlight a critical balance among polymer architecture, amine accessibility, and hydration in designing next-generation solid amine sorbents for efficient direct air capture applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Solar System (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

GTI Energy (GTI) teamed with the University of California at Merced (UCM) to scaleup the hybrid solar system (HSS) technology for demonstrating its performance at the US Gypsum (USG) plant in Plaster City, California. The technology integrates two-stage concentrating solar collector with matching particle thermal transport and storage (TSS) system to deliver cost-effective, and on-demand distributed high temperature industrial process heat up to 600°C with solar thermal, in this case to a gypsum kettle, to reduce its fuel use and carbon footprint. Current solar technologies, which reach these temperatures, are not distributable (towers) or cost-effective (dish). The research team developed a conceptual system design for host site retrofit, including preliminary heat balance, process flow diagram, particle to process heat exchanger and equipment placements at the site. Subsequently, parallel efforts were carried out at UCM to design, build and test a 12 m long commercial scale prototype concentrating thermal-only collector system and at GTI to design, build and test a matching 650°C capable particle TTS system. The nominal 50 kWth collector consists of a parabolic trough and three 4 m long two-stage receivers in series. Prior to on-sun testing, a 4 m long receiver was fabricated and successfully tested at 650 °C in a laboratory setting for 100 hrs of continuous operation showing less than 15% radiation loss. A 7 m wide x 17 m long parabolic trough was then installed at UCM for on-sun testing of the 12 m long receiver, and concurrently several 4 m long receivers were built. The optics of the parabolic trough were calibrated, and on-sun test were carried out on 12 m long receivers. During tests, the intense solar radiation (53x) caused the absorber tubes in the receivers to bend, reducing the overall optical efficiency. To address the bending issue, a self-consistent algorithm that includes ray tracing, thermal and deformation models was developed to perform thermal stress analysis on absorbers for parabolic solar collectors. Results obtained with this algorithm showed a dramatic rise in deformation as absorber tube length increases. A combined efficiency parameter that includes the occluded area for the mounts was developed to obtain an optimized tube length obtained. Based on the results, a length of 2.7 m for the absorber + 0.2 m for the coupler was chosen to minimize any bending and optimize optical efficiency while maintaining ease of mounting. The associated particle TTS system was designed, built and successfully tested at GTI. It includes storage, receiving and lock hoppers and piping that simulates the transfer of captured solar energy to an actual industrial furnace. Tests over 77 charge-discharge cycles demonstrated <2% particle degradation, with no problematic particle accumulations and no flow interruptions. The piping pressure drop was about 5 psi. The team also worked with Stanley Consultants (Stanley) to prepare conceptual and preliminary engineering packages to facilitate follow-on development and commercialization efforts. These include process and instrumentation diagram’s (P&ID’s), general arrangements, electrical one-line, project definitions document, equipment data sheets, schedule, and construction cost estimate for 2 MWth system. Updated HSS technology commercialization and customer engagement plans and detailed costs and evaluated market trade-offs and manufacturing.

03 NATURAL GAS↗