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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation for Battery Electric Buses Energy Consumption Forecasting

The limited service life of onboard batteries for EVs is a challenge, underscoring the need for real-time battery usage prediction. This paper proposes an adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation (ADE) approach for forecasting the energy consumption of battery electric buses. By dynamically adjusting the sliding window length, the adaptive ADE retains the fixed-length ADE’s key advantage—namely, operating online without reliance on extensive historical datasets—while substantially bolstering forecast accuracy by actively trading estimation bias off estimation variance. Comparative experiments against both the conventional ADE with a fixed length and a representative machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, were conducted, with performance evaluated via root mean square error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms baseline methods.

Cui, Tianyang [The University of Texas at Dallas]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online energy consumption forecast for battery electric buses using a learning-free algebraic method

Accurately predicting the energy consumption plays a vital role in battery electric buses (BEBs) route planning and deployment. Based on the algebraic derivative estimation, we present a novel method to forecast the energy consumption in real time. In contrast to the mainstream machine-learning-based methods, the proposed method does not require access to the historical energy consumption data. It eliminates the time-consuming and computationally expensive offline training. Consequently, its prediction performance is not constrained by the quantity and quality of the training data. Moreover, the method can swiftly adapt to new situations not included in the previous driving cycles, which makes it especially suitable for emerging transport modes, e.g., on-demand transit services. In addition, its online execution only involves algebraic calculations, yielding superior calculation efficiency. Using real-world data, we comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed learning-free algebraic method with multiple representative machine-learning-based methods. Finally, the advantages and limitations of the proposed method are discussed in detail.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hot Weather Impacts on Battery-Electric Transit Buses

Transit fleets considering integrating battery-electric buses (BEBs) can start by examining the impact of hot weather on BEBs and identifying key factors to optimize bus performance in high temperatures.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time-Dependent Electric Bus and Charging Station Deployment Problem

Battery electric buses (BEBs) have gained popularity due to their emission-free and energy-efficient features. Many transit authorities worldwide have set goals to gradually replace their bus fleets with BEBs. Considering the potential decline in BEB battery and charger prices, this study proposes a time-dependent bus fleet transition model to determine the optimal bus fleet transition plan, which includes selecting the bus lines to be electrified, determining the timing and type of BEBs to be purchased, and deploying on-route fast chargers and depot chargers. The model is a bi-objective integer linear program that considers the trade-off between electrified transit mileages and bus electrification costs. A normalized normal constraint method is applied to solve the bi-objective optimization model. The effectiveness of the proposed model is tested using a real-world bus network. Additionally, sensitivity analyses are conducted to better understand the impact of different parameter values on the optimal solutions. Our proposed model can provide transit authorities with a powerful tool to make informed decisions about their BEB fleet replacement plans.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel method for co-optimizing battery sizing and charging strategy of battery electric bus fleets: An application to the city of Paris

Battery-electric buses (BEBs) are a promising technology for replacing diesel buses and reducing their environmental burden. However, their charging process can take several hours, depending on the charging technique and strategy, making them susceptible to schedule disruptions. Furthermore, the selection of the charging strategy and battery size can increase the total capital investment and operational expenses of a BEB fleet, which is a major obstacle to its adoption. Therefore, to minimize the total cost of ownership (TCO) and prevent schedule disruptions, it is essential to establish a well-defined approach to determine an appropriate battery size and charging strategy for BEB fleets. This paper presents a method for reducing the TCO of BEB by determining the optimal battery size and charging strategy for each bus while satisfying operating constraints. The method involves a two-step optimization algorithm that uses Dynamic Programming and Genetic Algorithm. Further, the study applies this approach to the bus fleet serving line 21 in Paris and generates the optimal battery sizing, charging strategy, and required charging infrastructure. The results indicate that 100 kWh batteries offer the best trade-off between capital and operational expenditure for the fleet deployment if used with 65–85 kW chargers at bus terminals.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validating Simulated Models of Energy Consumption by a Battery Electric Motorcoach: A real-world deployment in a harsh climate.

Many efforts have been made to simulate energy consumption of battery electric buses (BEBs) to optimize their deployment into existing fleets. The models produced, however, are rarely validated against real-world consumption data, limiting their generalizability and widespread application to fleets around the US. Furthermore, a major concern specific to BEBs is the effects of harsh climates on their performance. We build upon the state-of-the-art energy consumption modeling techniques developed for BEBs and apply them to a unique geographic context and a unique electrified vehicle. This geography, climate, and vehicle further the existing understanding of the factors affecting medium- and heavy-duty electric vehicles (MHDEVs) by allowing for new relationships to be tested and by assessing the generalizability of known relationships to new contexts. We find that temperature is less predictive of energy consumption for the battery electric motorcoach (BEM) in the case study environment than it is for BEBs in other studies. A mitigating factor that we presume to be working on the relationship between temperature and energy consumption is the fact that the BEM route does not stop between origin and destination to exchange passengers, and in turn, conditioned cabin air. Our model also incorporates wind speed and direction relative to travel, which is a novel contribution of our methodology. Results from our study are helpful for transit service planners, fleet operators, and logistics firms for improving their ability to predict performance of potential deployments of MHDEVs into existing operations.

32 - ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Zero-Emission Transit Bus Needs Assessment

The transition to zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs) in public transit has gained traction due to significant federal investments from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This needs assessment, commissioned by the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation and conducted by researchers at the Idaho National Laboratory, explores the current state of electrification in transit agencies, identifying barriers to implementation, potential funding sources, and operational considerations necessary for a successful transition. The assessment involved qualitative interviews with representatives from 19 transit service providers across diverse geographic regions. Key findings highlight the challenges related to bus facilities and operations, which require careful planning for charging infrastructure and maintenance capabilities to accommodate battery electric buses (BEBs) and hydrogen fuel cell buses (HFCBs). Agencies reported operational hurdles due to the shorter range of BEBs compared to diesel buses, necessitating revised scheduling and routing strategies. Despite these challenges, many agencies expressed optimism about their capacity to adapt. Funding availability emerged as a critical factor influencing the transition to ZEVs. While agencies welcomed increased financial support, particularly from the Low or No Emission Grant Program (Lo-No), concerns about the sustainability of this funding and the ongoing operational costs were prevalent. The need for a comprehensive funding inventory was underscored to ensure transit agencies are aware of all available resources. Technological constraints were significant barriers to ZEV adoption. The limited range of BEBs was frequently cited as a concern, leading to operational challenges and reliability issues. Agencies reported difficulties in sourcing replacement parts, which exacerbated downtime and maintenance challenges. Workforce development and training were identified as pivotal for a successful transition. Many agencies rely heavily on manufacturers for technician training, highlighting the need for scalable training programs that equip staff with the necessary skills to maintain electric powertrains effectively. This assessment offers actionable recommendations for the Joint Office, including enhancing outreach to transit agencies, developing resources for effective utility partnerships, and facilitating comprehensive training programs. Establishing a zero-emission bus evaluation program to track performance metrics such as cost, range, and reliability could provide valuable insights for transit agencies. The needs assessment provides a detailed examination of the challenges and opportunities facing transit agencies in their transition to zero-emissions bus fleets. By addressing these issues through targeted support, stakeholders can collaboratively work towards a cleaner, more sustainable public transportation system that benefits all communities.

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Joint optimization of electric bus charging infrastructure, vehicle scheduling, and charging management

High upfront costs of vehicles and charging infrastructure as well as the lack of knowledge related to infrastructure planning and electric bus system operation are major obstacles to the implementation of battery electric buses (BEBs). To tackle the obstacles and promote BEB adoption, a comprehensive optimization framework was developed to address the combined charging infrastructure planning, vehicle scheduling, and charging management problem for BEB systems, with the goal to minimize the total cost of ownership. The problem was formulated as a mixed-integer non-linear problem. A genetic algorithm-based approach was then proposed to solve the problem. Last, three alternative scenarios based on a sub-transit network in Salt Lake City, Utah, were analyzed and compared with the optimal scenario results in the numerical experiments. Our comparison results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and solution algorithm in determining a cost-efficient planning strategy for BEB systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Scalable Approach to Minimize Charging Costs for Electric Bus Fleets

Incorporating battery electric buses into bus fleets faces three primary challenges: a BEB’s extended refuel time, the cost of charging, both by the consumer and the power provider, and large compute demands for planning methods. When BEBs charge, the additional demands on the grid may exceed hardware limitations, so power providers divide a consumer’s energy needs into separate meters even though doing so is expensive for both power providers and consumers. Prior work has developed a number of strategies for computing charge schedules for bus fleets; however, prior work has not worked to reduce costs by aggregating meters. Additionally, because many works use mixed integer linear programs, their compute needs make planning for commercial-sized bus fleets intractable. This work presents a multi-program approach to computing charge plans for electric bus fleets. The proposed method solves a series of subproblems where the solution to the charge problem becomes more refined with each problem, moving closer to the optimal schedule. The results demonstrate how runtimes are reduced by using intermediate subproblems to refine the bus charge solution so that the proposed method can be applied to large bus fleets of 100+ buses. Not only will we demonstrate that runtimes scale linearly with the number of buses but we will also show how the proposed method scales to large bus fleets of over 100 buses while managing the monthly cost of energy.

Mortensen, Daniel (ORCID:0000000276494452)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy-Transit Nexus Tools for Bus Fleet Electrification (NEXTBUS)

NEXTBUS is an open-source software project that integrates NLR's bus energy modeling and simulation tools with multi-objective optimization for fleet operations. NLR is collaborating with a transit technology startup, ReVolt, to commercialize these capabilities by deploying NEXTBUS in ReVolt's software platform. The goal is to manage the added complexities of running a heterogeneous fleet, encompassing battery electric and diesel buses, across a large, multi-depot transit network.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Commercial Vehicle Electrification Evaluation Toolkit (CVEET)

The CVEET can identify and characterize charging and battery capacity challenges for class 3-8 commercial vehicle electrification, including battery electric and plug in hybrid vehicles for various trucks, vans and buses, over a wide range of vehicle operation. The tool can help build the understanding of the impact of commercial vehicle electrification on energy consumption, payload penalty, and GHG (i.e., CO2) emissions. The tool employs a quantitative approach to estimate electric vehicle energy consumption, characterize component performance and determine appropriate charging assumptions to conduct a comprehensive priority analysis of MD/HD vehicle electrification using public domain data.

Gao, Zhiming↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrifying Education: Insights into Charging Electric School Buses in the United States

School buses (SBs) have historically been a source of both greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollutants have negative health impacts for students and others living nearby. Battery electric SBs (ESBs) are a promising emerging technology for decarbonizing student transport, however, ESB adoption in the U.S. remains at an early stage (approximate 1.1%) with many outstanding uncertainties. In this study, we take inventory of the current SB stock within U.S. states and observe real-world SB operating profiles to better understand the potential battery range requirements, daily charging opportunities, and charging infrastructure needs for ESBs.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling a Sustainable Future: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis to Inform Decarbonization Pathways

Despite being only 5% of vehicles on the road, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) are the second largest contributor to transportation emissions (21%) and a major source of local air pollution disproportionally affecting disadvantaged communities. This talk summarizes a cost analysis for zero emissions vehicles (battery electric EVs and hydrogen fuel cell FCEVs) for all medium and heavy duty applications, ranging from large pick-up trucks, to delivery vans, buses, and heavy trucks. Results show that with continued improvements in vehicle and fuel technologies (in line with U.S. Department of Energy targets and vetted with industry), zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) can reach total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional diesel vehicles by 2035 for all medium- and heavy-duty (MD/HD) vehicle classes without incentives. Assuming economics drives adoption, ZEV sales could reach 42% of all MD/HD trucks by 2030, reflecting lower combined vehicle purchase and operating costs (using real-world payback periods). Two technological solutions - battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) - are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization: a) BEVs tend to become cost-competitive for smaller trucks before 2030 and for short-haul (<500-mile) heavy trucks before 2035. b) Hydrogen FCEVs tend to become cost-competitive for long-haul (>500-mile) heavy trucks by 2035. Results are very sensitive to technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and uncertain assumptions about future freight demand, logistics, and vehicle use explored in multiple scenarios.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cold Weather Impacts on Electric School Bus Performance in Aurora, Colorado

This brief highlight details the key takeaways from a project that utilized NLR's Fleet Research, Energy Data, and Insights (FleetREDI) data analysis pipeline related to electric school bus (ESB) operation. ESBs using battery energy as their primary heating source have a higher energy consumption rate in cold weather, which fleet managers can account for when planning ESB purchases and making dispatching and charging decisions. Researchers found that electric school buses operate 2-5 times more efficiently than conventional buses, on average. Cold weather can double electric school bus energy demands, but strategies such as thermal pre-conditioning significantly reduce this effect. Understanding these impacts can help fleets plan charging, dispatching, and purchase decisions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) Cost and Performance Data for Transportation Technologies

The 2022 Transportation Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides detailed cost and performance data, estimates, and assumptions for vehicle and fuel technologies in the United States. It includes current and projected estimates: time-series through 2050 for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicle technologies; scenarios for conventional and alternative fuels. It details the assumptions used to calculate those costs, such as natural gas and electricity prices, discount rates, and vehicle miles traveled. The 2022 Transportation ATB vehicle data are specifically for cars powered by gasoline, diesel, natural gas, gasoline hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel-cell powertrains and for trucks powered by diesel, diesel hybrid, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell powertrains. Fuels and blendstocks include gasoline, ethanol, blendstock for oxygenate blending, diesel, diesel from biomass, natural gas, electricity, hydrogen, aviation fuel, and marine fuel. At this time, the ATB does not include other vehicles such as buses, 2- and 3-wheeled motorized vehicles, or non-road vehicles such as aircraft, vessels, locomotives, and those for industry and agriculture. See "ATB Transportation Website" resource below for more project information.

2022↗