Search NASASearch

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “bayesian inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

Thermoplastic Matrix Composite Design for Cryotanks Using Multiscale Modeling and Bayesian Optimization

Designing lightweight, robust cryogenic storage tanks is critical for future launch vehicles, in-space propellant storage, and hydrogen powered aircraft. This work presents a multiscale modeling and Bayesian optimization framework for the design of thermoplastic matrix composite cryotanks. Molecular dynamics simulations are first used to determine temperature-dependent constituent properties for candidate thermoplastic matrices, which are homogenized to the lamina scale using NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). These lamina properties, in combination with laminate family generation rules, are evaluated in HyperX structural optimization software to identify stacking sequences that meet all cryogenic load requirements. A Bayesian optimization framework is applied, with HyperX in the loop (via the HyperX API) to efficiently search across material and laminate design variables, yielding an optimized cryotank configuration with significant reductions in design cycle time compared to exhaustive search approaches.

thermoplastics

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Analysis of an Open Rotor Stage: Part 1

Successful design of open rotor propulsors requires effective analysis across multiple disciplines, including aerodynamics, acoustics, and structures. A viable design must not only be efficient but must also produce an acceptable level of noise and meet all static and dynamic structural requirements. For design and optimization, this is especially challenging because running high fidelity analyses is resource-intensive, and optimizing a design may require many thousands of cases to be analyzed. For this reason, the NASA team has applied design methodology that utilizes low-cost aerodynamic methods, machine learning models, and high-fidelity analyses when necessary. This includes standard two-dimensional methods such as throughflow analysis and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD, as well as some newly developed methods. Optimization using 3D CFD is necessary to maximize performance, and this is considered as well. All optimizations are carried out subject to structural constraints evaluated using finite element analysis. Doing this accurately requires a robust trunnion design, capable of pitching the blade between cruise and takeoff conditions while maintaining acceptable factor of safety. Hot to cold analysis must also be applied in order to correctly determine the as-manufactured shape. For acoustics, the unsteady pressures on the blade surfaces must be predicted, and this can be done either through full-annulus unsteady CFD or through a nonlinear harmonic method (NLH). NLH can run much faster, allowing some acoustic considerations to be made earlier in the design process. The design process is ongoing, and this presentation will review the current status and planned next steps. This part of the talk will focus on aerodynamic performance and be followed by a talk on structures and acoustics.

Design

Thermochemically-Closed Sonic-Flow Inversion for Enthalpy and Temperature in Multispecies Arc-Jet Flows

A thermochemically-closed sonic-flow inversion framework (TSIF) is developed to infer bulk enthalpy and total temperature upstream of a choked nozzle in arc-jet flows. The formulation recasts a pressure-rise total enthalpy quantification technique as an inverse problem in characteristic-velocity c * space using measured mass flow rate, upstream total pressure, gas composition, and nozzle throat geometry as inputs. Unlike calorimetric energy-balance approaches or optical diagnostics, the method relies primarily on routinely measured facility quantities combined with explicit thermochemical closure. Thermochemical states are obtained using NASA’s open-source Chemical Equilibrium with Applications (CEA) code, enabling construction of a chemistry-consistent relation between characteristic velocity, total enthalpy, and total temperature under equilibrium or frozen assumptions. A discharge coefficient is self-calibrated using cold-flow (arc-off) operation data and applied to hot-flow (arc-on) measurements, enabling upstream losses to be accounted for without empirical correlations. The framework is applied to air, N 2 , and CO 2 –N 2 arc-jet flows and demonstrates expected trends for the inferred thermochemical states as function of arc power, specific energy input, mass-flow, heater configuration, and test gas. In the air limit, under equilibrium assumptions, the method recovers the classical high-enthalpy asymptotic correlation of Winovich with a mean residual of 4.4%, demonstrating compatibility with established sonic-flow scaling, while extending applicability to arbitrary multi-species mixtures and non-equilibrium chemistry. The framework provides a mixture-flexible methodology for determining bulk thermochemical states in modern arc-jet environments using routine facility pressure, mass-flow, gas-composition, and nozzle-geometry information together with a cold-flow calibration.

stagnation heat flux

Thermochemically-Closed Sonic-Flow Inversion for Enthalpy and Temperature in Multispecies Arc-Jet Flows

A thermochemically-closed sonic-flow inversion framework (TSIF) is developed to infer bulk enthalpy and total temperature upstream of a choked nozzle in arc-jet flows. The formulation recasts a pressure-rise total enthalpy quantification technique as an inverse problem in characteristic-velocity c * space using measured mass flow rate, upstream total pressure, gas composition, and nozzle throat geometry as inputs. Unlike calorimetric energy-balance approaches or optical diagnostics, the method relies primarily on routinely measured facility quantities combined with explicit thermochemical closure. Thermochemical states are obtained using NASA’s open-source Chemical Equilibrium with Applications (CEA) code, enabling construction of a chemistry-consistent relation between characteristic velocity, total enthalpy, and total temperature under equilibrium or frozen assumptions. A discharge coefficient is self-calibrated using cold-flow (arc-off) operation data and applied to hot-flow (arc-on) measurements, enabling upstream losses to be accounted for without empirical correlations. The framework is applied to air, N 2 , and CO 2 –N 2 arc-jet flows and demonstrates expected trends for the inferred thermochemical states as function of arc power, specific energy input, mass-flow, heater configuration, and test gas. In the air limit, under equilibrium assumptions, the method recovers the classical high-enthalpy asymptotic correlation of Winovich with a mean residual of 4.4%, demonstrating compatibility with established sonic-flow scaling, while extending applicability to arbitrary multi-species mixtures and non-equilibrium chemistry. The framework provides a mixture-flexible methodology for determining bulk thermochemical states in modern arc-jet environments using routine facility pressure, mass-flow, gas-composition, and nozzle-geometry information together with a cold-flow calibration.

inviscid theory

In-Space Demonstration of Spray-on Solar White Paint

Discs coated with spray-on solar white and two similar thermal control coatings were flown in low earth orbit for roughly five hours. While in orbit, the coated discs were exposed to direct sunlight and to deep space for short intervals. Measurements of disc temperatures showed that the spray-on solar white coating had the lowest absorption of sunlight. Numerical modeling was used to infer that spray-on solar white had a solar absorptance between 0.02 and 0.04 and a thermal emittance between 0.93 and 0.99, both of which are consistent with terrestrial laboratory measurements.

Solar White

ARCTRON: A Rapid Experimental Proving Ground for TPS Experiments and Arcjet Technology Development

Innovation in high-enthalpy facilities is fundamentally limited by the cost and risk of experimentation. New concepts for plasma control, diagnostics, facility components, and plasma-material interaction often require repeated iterations that are impractical to perform in production arcjets. As a result, promising ideas may remain unexplored or reach operational facilities only after significant development effort. ARCTRON is being developed as a rapid experimental proving ground where new ideas in plasma science, arcjet engineering, diagnostics, and material response can be conceived, tested, and quantitatively evaluated before transition to large-scale facilities. The platform combines radio-frequency (RF) and DC arc plasma generation, externally applied magnetic fields, configurable gas composition, reduced-pressure operation, laser heating, electrical biasing, and modular diagnostic access. These capabilities permit the plasma source, applied forcing, test article, and measurement configuration to be modified independently, allowing individual physical mechanisms to be isolated more readily than in a traditional test environment. One class of investigations addresses fundamental plasma-surface interaction physics. Conventional material tests often expose a specimen simultaneously to convective heating, reactive species, pressure, shear, radiation, and surface-current effects. The resulting material response may be measured accurately, while the contribution of each mechanism remains difficult to identify. ARCTRON is designed to vary these effects selectively. Plasma chemistry can be changed independently through configurable gas mixtures; magnetic fields and electrical biasing can modify charged-particle transport; laser heating can provide a non-plasma thermal input; and pressure, flow, and discharge mode can be varied over a broad operating space. This enables controlled tests of hypotheses involving surface catalycity, reactive-species transport, plasma-assisted oxidation, electromagnetic effects, shear, and the relative contributions of thermal and chemical loading. A second class of investigations enabled by this approach concerns the engineering of high-enthalpy facilities themselves. Arc-heated facilities are limited by electrode erosion, unstable arc attachment, localized heating, and damage to nozzles and other plasma-facing components. ARCTRON provides a lower-cost environment for testing concepts intended to mitigate these limitations. Candidate investigations include the use of applied magnetic fields to alter current paths and reduce plasma interaction with nozzle walls, ExB forcing to introduce controlled plasma rotation, magnetic or geometric approaches for distributing arc attachment, and alternative electrode or discharge configurations intended to reduce erosion and improve stability. Because the platform is reconfigurable, these concepts can be evaluated through repeated design--build--test cycles before they are considered for implementation in operational facilities. The platform also supports the development and validation of diagnostics that may be difficult to introduce initially into a large arcjet. Current and planned measurements include spatially resolved optical emission spectroscopy, electrostatic probes, fast imaging, pyrometry, calorimetry, laser-induced fluorescence, and absorption spectroscopy. These diagnostics are intended not merely to document a nominal operating condition, but to constrain the local plasma state and its relationship to component or material response. The modular facility geometry allows diagnostic concepts to be tested, calibrated, and compared under repeatable conditions before deployment in more demanding environments. ARCTRON is also supported by an integrated software suite. Automated control and data acquisition allow discharge parameters, gas composition, magnetic fields, diagnostic timing, and test configuration to be recorded as part of each experiment (STARDAC - Software for Testing, Analysis, Research Data, and Control). The Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability (BEAST) is a database that provides the infrastructure needed to associate heterogeneous measurements with facility configuration, specimen identity, calibration state, geometry, and analysis provenance. This backend is particularly important for exploratory campaigns, in which many related configurations may be tested, and the value of an individual experiment depends on its connection to earlier and subsequent iterations. Complementary analysis capabilities, including computer-vision-based transient response measurements (arcjetCV), three-dimensional surface reconstruction (STARSCAN), and model-based Bayesian inference (SHIELD), and tomography data analysis (TOMATO, PuMA) can be incorporated when required by a specific hypothesis without becoming the focus of every campaign. The central objective of ARCTRON is therefore not to maximize heat flux or reproduce a complete flight environment. Its purpose is to reduce the cost and time required to ask consequential questions about plasma behavior, plasma-facing materials, diagnostics, and arcjet technology. By providing a controlled environment for rapid reconfiguration, mechanism isolation, quantitative measurement, and iterative engineering, ARCTRON can help mature concepts that would otherwise remain too speculative or too risky for evaluation in production facilities. The resulting knowledge can then guide the design of material models, focus test objectives in larger arcjets, reduce facility-development risk, and improve the physical basis of high-enthalpy ground testing. This work will present the ARCTRON architecture, operating modes, diagnostic suite, and digital experimental workflow. Initial experimental results from the first integrated operation of the facility will be presented, including flow characterization, power limitations, and deployment of the initial diagnostic suite. Ongoing development efforts aimed at catalycity characterization, magnetic plasma control, and advanced optical diagnostics will also be discussed, illustrating how the platform supports rapid iteration from concept to experiment.

experimental diagnostics

ARCTRON: A Rapid Experimental Proving Ground for TPS Experiments and Arcjet Technology Development

Innovation in high-enthalpy facilities is fundamentally limited by the cost and risk of experimentation. New concepts for plasma control, diagnostics, facility components, and plasma-material interaction often require repeated iterations that are impractical to perform in production arcjets. As a result, promising ideas may remain unexplored or reach operational facilities only after significant development effort. ARCTRON is being developed as a rapid experimental proving ground where new ideas in plasma science, arcjet engineering, diagnostics, and material response can be conceived, tested, and quantitatively evaluated before transition to large-scale facilities. The platform combines radio-frequency (RF) and DC arc plasma generation, externally applied magnetic fields, configurable gas composition, reduced-pressure operation, laser heating, electrical biasing, and modular diagnostic access. These capabilities permit the plasma source, applied forcing, test article, and measurement configuration to be modified independently, allowing individual physical mechanisms to be isolated more readily than in a traditional test environment. One class of investigations addresses fundamental plasma-surface interaction physics. Conventional material tests often expose a specimen simultaneously to convective heating, reactive species, pressure, shear, radiation, and surface-current effects. The resulting material response may be measured accurately, while the contribution of each mechanism remains difficult to identify. ARCTRON is designed to vary these effects selectively. Plasma chemistry can be changed independently through configurable gas mixtures; magnetic fields and electrical biasing can modify charged-particle transport; laser heating can provide a non-plasma thermal input; and pressure, flow, and discharge mode can be varied over a broad operating space. This enables controlled tests of hypotheses involving surface catalycity, reactive-species transport, plasma-assisted oxidation, electromagnetic effects, shear, and the relative contributions of thermal and chemical loading. A second class of investigations enabled by this approach concerns the engineering of high-enthalpy facilities themselves. Arc-heated facilities are limited by electrode erosion, unstable arc attachment, localized heating, and damage to nozzles and other plasma-facing components. ARCTRON provides a lower-cost environment for testing concepts intended to mitigate these limitations. Candidate investigations include the use of applied magnetic fields to alter current paths and reduce plasma interaction with nozzle walls, ExB forcing to introduce controlled plasma rotation, magnetic or geometric approaches for distributing arc attachment, and alternative electrode or discharge configurations intended to reduce erosion and improve stability. Because the platform is reconfigurable, these concepts can be evaluated through repeated design--build--test cycles before they are considered for implementation in operational facilities. The platform also supports the development and validation of diagnostics that may be difficult to introduce initially into a large arcjet. Current and planned measurements include spatially resolved optical emission spectroscopy, electrostatic probes, fast imaging, pyrometry, calorimetry, laser-induced fluorescence, and absorption spectroscopy. These diagnostics are intended not merely to document a nominal operating condition, but to constrain the local plasma state and its relationship to component or material response. The modular facility geometry allows diagnostic concepts to be tested, calibrated, and compared under repeatable conditions before deployment in more demanding environments. ARCTRON is also supported by an integrated software suite. Automated control and data acquisition allow discharge parameters, gas composition, magnetic fields, diagnostic timing, and test configuration to be recorded as part of each experiment (STARDAC - Software for Testing, Analysis, Research Data, and Control). The Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability (BEAST) is a database that provides the infrastructure needed to associate heterogeneous measurements with facility configuration, specimen identity, calibration state, geometry, and analysis provenance. This backend is particularly important for exploratory campaigns, in which many related configurations may be tested, and the value of an individual experiment depends on its connection to earlier and subsequent iterations. Complementary analysis capabilities, including computer-vision-based transient response measurements (arcjetCV), three-dimensional surface reconstruction (STARSCAN), and model-based Bayesian inference (SHIELD), and tomography data analysis (TOMATO, PuMA) can be incorporated when required by a specific hypothesis without becoming the focus of every campaign. The central objective of ARCTRON is therefore not to maximize heat flux or reproduce a complete flight environment. Its purpose is to reduce the cost and time required to ask consequential questions about plasma behavior, plasma-facing materials, diagnostics, and arcjet technology. By providing a controlled environment for rapid reconfiguration, mechanism isolation, quantitative measurement, and iterative engineering, ARCTRON can help mature concepts that would otherwise remain too speculative or too risky for evaluation in production facilities. The resulting knowledge can then guide the design of material models, focus test objectives in larger arcjets, reduce facility-development risk, and improve the physical basis of high-enthalpy ground testing. This work will present the ARCTRON architecture, operating modes, diagnostic suite, and digital experimental workflow. Initial experimental results from the first integrated operation of the facility will be presented, including flow characterization, power limitations, and deployment of the initial diagnostic suite. Ongoing development efforts aimed at catalycity characterization, magnetic plasma control, and advanced optical diagnostics will also be discussed, illustrating how the platform supports rapid iteration from concept to experiment.

experimental diagnostics

Remote Sensing-Driven Hydrodynamic Modeling in Data-Scarce Regions: Integrating ICESat-2, Sentinel-2, SWOT and Re-analysis Models for Coastal Monitoring

Hydrodynamic models in coastal and estuarine systems are typically constrained by sparse bathymetry, boundary, and validation data, especially in regions where field campaigns are costly or impractical. Here we develop and test a fully satellite-driven framework for hydrodynamic modeling in South Africa’s Langebaan Lagoon without using any local in situ measurements. Bathymetry is derived by training multispectral Sentinel-2 reflectance against ICESat-2 ATL24 photon-derived depths using an XGBoost model optimized with Bayesian search. The final satellite-derived bathymetry reproduces independent ATL24 points with RMSE = 0.45 m and R 2 = 0.97. This bathymetry was used in a depth-averaged Delft3D Flexible Mesh model driven at the open boundary by TPXO tidal harmonics and by ERA5 winds. We validate modeled water surface elevation against 16 SWOT low-rate (250 m, unsmoothed) passes in 2023. SWOT–model comparisons yield an overall RMSE of 0.11 m and R 2 = 0.61, with typical point differences <0.10 m (∼7% of the 1.5 m tidal range), and showed consistent spatial gradients in water level from the offshore boundary, through Saldanha Bay, and into the lagoon. At the offshore boundary, TPXO and SWOT sea surface heights agree closely (R 2 = 0.86). A simple phase adjustment of ∼26,min between TPXO and SWOT lowers the RMSE from 0.18,m to 0.11,m, showing that phase offset accounts for some of the discrepancy, with additional errors likely linked to non-tidal signals. Our results demonstrate that combining passive optical, photon-counting LiDAR, radar interferometry, and global tidal/atmospheric models enables robust, transferrable hydrodynamic modeling in data-scarce coastal systems, offering a cost-effective pathway for monitoring.

ICESat-2

A Multi-Tier Autonomous Aerial Architecture for Wildfire Detection, Characterization, and Communication in Infrastructure-Denied Environments

Wildfire response depends on how fast an ignition can be confirmed and located, especially in remote regions where ground-based communication and monitoring may be limited. Geostationary sensors provide frequent observations but at kilometer-scale resolution, which is too coarse to resolve small fires in remote terrain. Ground camera networks require sightlines and infrastructure that back-country areas lack. To address these limitations, this work proposes a Multi-Tier Autonomous Wildfire Intelligence System that combines wide-area monitoring with targeted, high-resolution sensing. A solar-powered high-altitude long endurance (HALE) platform operating at approximately 60,000 ft provides persistent wide-area thermal and optical surveillance, running onboard edge inference to screen candidate ignitions and reduce false positives and downlink bandwidth. When a candidate ignition is detected, low-altitude uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) can be deployed to conduct localized observations, including high-resolution imaging and atmospheric measurements such as wind and plume observation. By combining persistent detection with local sensing, the proposed architecture is designed to provide first responders with timely, high-resolution information about fire location and behavior to aid in emergency decision making.

Wildfire management, UAS, drones

Characterizing the subglacial environment of lower Thwaites Glacier using radar modeling

Understanding the spatial heterogeneity beneath Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is vital to projecting its impact on future sea levels. Radar-echo sounding (RES) is commonly used to infer subglacial conditions, but these data can be challenging to interpret. We assess basal heterogeneity across Thwaites Glacier by comparing RES returns to a radar backscattering simulator for over 400 km of RES data. The modeled variations in bed returned power exhibited a strong correlation with actual RES data in 40% of our simulated flight segments, which we consider evidence for a relatively homogeneous glacier bed. Other sites (40%) demonstrated improved fit quality when hydrology or substrate transitions were introduced in the bed material model. The remaining simulated segments (20%) were diagnosed as having more complex basal heterogeneity. The spatial distribution of complex heterogeneity appears to coincide with asymmetric patterns in the RES specularity content, which has been interpreted in previous studies as a signature for channelized hydrology. Conversely, the homogeneous substrate locations coincide with areas of fast-moving ice in western Thwaites. Our simulation method can isolate power variations induced by material heterogeneity vs topography, which is an important limitation of existing RES analysis methods.

Antarctic glaciology

Tidal Tomography Reveals a Thermal Anomaly Beneath Mars’s Crustal Dichotomy

Mars undergoes seasonal tidal forcing as a result of its eccentric orbit and the tilt of its rotation axis relative to the Sun1. Response to this forcing produces temporal variations in the Martian gravity field and is sensitive to the internal structure of the planet2,3,4. Using tracking data from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), Mars Odyssey (ODY) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft5,6,7, we demonstrate that degree-3 components of the time-variable gravity field of Mars differ by up to 300% from predictions for a spherically symmetric planet8,9,10. These deviations can be explained if the effective shear modulus of the mantle varies by >20% over a roughly north–south pattern that closely aligns with the surface expression of the Martian crustal dichotomy11. On the basis of this correlation, we infer preservation of a 200–400 °C thermal anomaly in the present-day mantle below the southern highlands of Mars. This temperature variation could reflect regional mantle convection12,13 or insulation by the thick southern highlands crust of Mars that has persisted over several billion years14,15.

Mars

X-Ray Polarization From the Atoll 4U 1735−44 Suggests a Low Inclination

X-ray polarimetry is a new tool capable of probing the geometry of accretion onto weakly magnetized neutron stars. Here we present the first X-ray spectro-polarimetric results from coordinated observations of the atoll source 4U 1735−44, conducted with the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), NICER, and NuSTAR . Over the 2–8 keV energy range, we obtained a marginal detection of polarization with the polarization degree of 1.4% ± 0.7% and polarization angle of −29◦ ± 14◦, corresponding to a 3σ upper limit on the polarization degree of 3.5%. The best-fit model to describe the spectrum comprises a thermal component associated with the accretion disk, a Comptonized black body component, and a relativistic reflection component. From the reflection model, we infer a disk inclination of ∼40◦. The spectroscopic and polarimetric properties of 4U 1735−44 are consistent with those observed in other atoll sources studied by IXPE, with its low polarization likely due to its low inclination

X-rays: binaries

On the isotopic signature of recent solar-wind nitrogen

One of the most intriguing discoveries yielded by the Apollo samples was evidence pointing towards a significant long-term change in the composition of the sun. Such a change, of the size inferred from the lunar sample data, is inconsistent with present theories of solar evolution. Consequently, there is much interest in exploring this phenomenon as closely as possible, to determine exactly what compositional changes have taken place and whether those changes really did take place in the sun, or whether the cause lies elsewhere. The reason why we can use the moon to analyze the elements in the sun is that the sun emits a stream of ions, known as the solar wind, whose composition, on average, is believed to be the same as that in the surface regions of the sun. When the solar-wind ions hit the surface of the moon, many of them penetrate a short distance into the dust grains lying on the lunar surface. Thus, after a grain has sat on the lunar surface for a while, it has a rim of material that is partly lunar and partly solar in composition. For most chemical elements, the difference between lunar and solar composition is so sufficiently small that the solar elements cannot be detected, but for a handful of elements that are missing from the moon, their solar 'signature' can be observed in samples of lunar soil brought back by the astronauts. Among those elements is nitrogen, the most common element in the air we breathe, but very rare indeed on the moon. Our analytical techniques are not sophisticated enough yet to enable us to analyze individual lunar soil grains for nitrogen, much less to zero in on just the nitrogen in the surface of such a grain. Consequently we are forced to analyze samples consisting of many different grains, each of which could have experienced its own individual history. This makes it difficult to identify the nitrogen implanted in grain surfaces, and also to define the age of a sample.

Kim, Y.

Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Capability for Ground-Based Pre-Launch Shuttle Operations

This chapter will provide a thorough end-to-end description of the process for evaluation of three different data-driven algorithms for anomaly detection to select the best candidate for deployment as part of a suite of IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) technologies. These algorithms were deemed to be sufficiently mature enough to be considered viable candidates for deployment in support of the maiden launch of Ares I-X, the successor to the Space Shuttle for NASA's Constellation program. Data-driven algorithms are just one of three different types being deployed [3],[5]. The other two types of algorithms being deployed include a "rule-based" expert system, and a "model-based" system. Within these two categories, the deployable candidates have already been selected based upon qualitative factors such as flight heritage. For the rile-based system, SHINE (Spacecraft High-speed Inference Engine) has been selected for deployment, which is a component of BEAM (Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions) [4], a patented technology developed at NASA's JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and serves to aid in the management and identification of operational modes. For the "model-based" system, a commercially available package developed by QSI (Qualtech Systems, Inc.), TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System) [1] has been selected for deployment to aid in diagnosis. In the context of this particular deployment, distinctions among the use of the terms "data-driven," "rule-based," and "model-based," call found in [5]. Although there are three different categories of algorithms that have been selected for deployment, our main focus in this chapter will be on the evaluation of three candidates for data-driven anomaly detection. These algorithms will be evaluated upon their capability for robustly detecting incipient faults or failures in the ground-based phase of pre-launch space shuttle operations, rather than based oil heritage as performed in previous studies [5]. Robust detection will allow for the achievement of pre-specified minimum false alarm and/or missed detection rates in the selection of alert thresholds. All algorithms will also be optimized with respect to all of these same criteria. Our study relies upon the use of Shuttle data to act as was a proxy for and in preparation for application to Ares I-X data, which uses a very similar hardware platform for the subsystems that are being targeted (TVC - Thrust Vector Control subsystem for the SRB (Solid Rocket Booster)).

False Alarms

Phosphate Textural Diversity in CI Chondrites and C-Type Asteroids

Introduction: Apatite, Ca 5 (PO 4 ) 3 (CL/F/OH-), is a ubiquitous phosphate found throughout the solar system, including the most primitive solids, CI-chondrites [1,2] and related samples of carbonaceous asteroids Ryugu [3] and Bennu [4], returned by JAXA’s Hayabusa2 and NASA’s OSIRIS-REx missions, respectively. Apatite in these primitive solids is found as individual grains or mineral clusters and has been inferred to form from the hydrothermal sequence during cooling of their respective parent body or bodies. To better understand the formation history and reworking of these early phosphates we have undertaken a highly coordinated study of phosphate microstructures, geochemistry and U/Pb geochronology from a suite of CI meteorites and carbonaceous asteroid samples. These data have identified novel phosphate microstructures and complex relationships across a suite of apatite grains from the early solar system, indicating multiple episodes of growth and modification on the CI parent body(ies). Methods: Samples of CI chondrites, Alais, Ivuna, Orgueil, Oued Chebeika 002, Yamato (Y) 82162, Y980115, Y980134, and two chips of Hayabusa2 Ryugu particles (A0262 and C0263) have been acquired for analysis. The bulk texture of the samples were first scanned by X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) using the Nikon XT H 320 within the XFACT facility at NASA JSC or the Xradia 620 Versa at the UTCT facility. Based on the identification of petrofabrics or features of interest from the XCT data, samples were chipped, oriented, potted in epoxy and thick sections were prepared. After anhydrously polishing the samples with silicon carbide and dry diamond powder down to 1 µm, the samples were ion polished using a Hitachi ArBlade. Energy dispersive Xray spectrometry (EDS) maps were collected to ID phosphates of interest using a JEOL 7900F SEM. The internal microstructures of identified phosphates were then mapped by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) using the JEOL 7900F. Based on the EDS and EBSD data, domains of interest were targeted for quantitative chemical analyses using a JEOL 8530 EPMA. Subsequently, in situ U-Pb and 207 Pb/ 206 Pb ages will be collected using a Cameca ims1290 secondary ion mass spectrometer at UCLA across a range of microstructures. Results: Apatite grains are ubiquitous throughout the CI chondrites and carbonaceous asteroid materials, found as individual grains, disseminated clusters or grain aggregates. Apatite grains are associated with serpentine, magnet-ite, and/or carbonate. Of particular interest, we have identified individual and aggregate polycrystalline grains ex-hibiting an internal ‘honeycomb’ texture (Fig. 1). Some of these grains appear overprinted by subsequent alteration while others remain unaltered. Apatite halogen sites are dominated by the missing component, assumed to be OH, and F, comparable to published values from Bennu, Ryugu and CM-chondrites [3-5]. However, the Yamato CI-like meteorites show a broader range of Cl values, and one grain from Alais is dominated by CL. Summary: Apatite growth features indicate a protracted and complex growth history, consistent with precipitation from an evolving fluid system. The ‘honeycomb’ texture identified in some CI meteorites is, to the best of our knowledge, the first report of such a microstructure in meteoritic phosphate. The microtextures and zoning will guide subsequent age analyses, to better constrain the formation and reworking of phosphate in CI(-like) materials. Acknowledgments: We thank the National Institute of Polar Research, Japan for samples of Y82162, 980115 and 980134 meteorites, ASU’s Buseck Center for Meteorite Studies for samples of Ivuna and Alais meteorites, and JAXA curation for chips of Ryugu material. This work was funded by NASA ROSES LARS grant 24-LARS24-0014. References: [1] Morlok et al., 2016, GCA 70:5371-5394. [2] Alfin g et al., 2019, Geochemistry 79:125532. [3] Nakamura et al. (2022) Science 379:1-15. [4] Seifert et al. (2026) MAPS 61:504-521. [5] Piralla et al. (2021) MAPS 56:809-828.

CI chondrites