Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “behavioral economics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Loggers and Forest Fragmentation: Behavioral Models of Road Building in the Amazon Basin

Although a large literature now exists on the drivers of tropical deforestation, less is known about its spatial manifestation. This is a critical shortcoming in our knowledge base since the spatial pattern of land-cover change and forest fragmentation, in particular, strongly affect biodiversity. The purpose of this article is to consider emergent patterns of road networks, the initial proximate cause of fragmentation in tropical forest frontiers. Specifically, we address the road-building processes of loggers who are very active in the Amazon landscape. To this end, we develop an explanation of road expansions, using a positive approach combining a theoretical model of economic behavior with geographic information systems (GIs) software in order to mimic the spatial decisions of road builders. We simulate two types of road extensions commonly found in the Amazon basin in a region: showing the fishbone pattern of fragmentation. Although our simulation results are only partially successful, they call attention to the role of multiple agents in the landscape, the importance of legal and institutional constraints on economic behavior, and the power of GIs as a research tool.

Arima, Eugenio Y.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war

A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal, which would inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and significant impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. These effects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how food availability would change by employing the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium model. Under a robust world trading system, global food availability would drop by a few percentage points. If the war would destabilize trade, it would magnify by several times the negative ramifications of land productivity shocks on food availability. If exporting countries redirect production to domestic consumption at the expense of importing countries, it would lead to the destabilization of international trade. The analysis suggests that economic models aiming to inform policymakers require both economic behavior analysis and biophysical drivers. Policy lessons derived from a crop model can be significantly nuanced when coupled with economic feedback derived from economic models. Through the impact on yield, farmers could shift production among crops and reallocate land use to maximize profits, showing the importance of general equilibrium effects such as product and input substitution and international trade. Although the global impact on corn and soybean production would be significant when just considering crop production, it could be considerably smaller under the economic model. However, this would be at the expense of other sectors, including livestock. In addition, the costs borne from disruptions to climate would vary significantly across regions, with significant adverse effects in high latitude regions. The severity of the shocks in the high-latitude areas would marginalize the farmers' product and input substitution ability.

Nuclear war↗
NASA NTRS1997

The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Second Generation)

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based mode with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that are envisioned for ASAC. We describe a second-generation Air Carrier Investment Model that meets these requirements. The enhanced model incorporates econometric results from the supply and demand curves faced by U.S.-scheduled passenger air carriers. It uses detailed information about their fleets in 1995 to make predictions about future aircraft purchases. It enables analysts with the ability to project revenue passenger-miles flown, airline industry employment, airline operating profit margins, numbers and types of aircraft in the fleet, and changes in aircraft manufacturing employment under various user-defined scenarios.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗
NASA NTRS1998

The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Third Generation)

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based model with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models flat are envisioned for ASAC.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗
NASA NTRS2015

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

VIIRS night sky↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. Therefore, NASA is developing the ability to evaluate the potential impact of various advanced technologies. By thoroughly understanding the economic impact of advanced aviation technologies and by evaluating how the new technologies will be used in the integrated aviation system, NASA aims to balance its aeronautical research program and help speed the introduction of high-leverage technologies. To meet these objectives, NASA is building the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). NASA envisions ASAC primarily as a process for understanding and evaluating the impact of advanced aviation technologies on the U.S. economy. ASAC consists of a diverse collection of models and databases used by analysts and other individuals from the public and private sectors brought together to work on issues of common interest to organizations in the aviation community. ASAC also will be a resource available to the aviation community to analyze; inform; and assist scientists, engineers, analysts, and program managers in their daily work. The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. Commercial air carriers, in particular, are an important stakeholder in this community. Therefore, to fully evaluate the implications of advanced aviation technologies, ASAC requires a flexible financial analysis tool that credibly links the technology of flight with the financial performance of commercial air carriers. By linking technical and financial information, NASA ensures that its technology programs will continue to benefit the user community. In addition, the analysis tool must be capable of being incorporated into the wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that comprise ASAC. This report describes an Air Carrier Cost-Benefit Model (CBM) that meets these requirements. The ASAC CBM is distinguished from many of the aviation cost-benefit models by its exclusive focus on commercial air carriers. The model considers such benefit categories as time and fuel savings, utilization opportunities, reliability and capacity enhancements, and safety and security improvements. The model distinguishes between benefits that are predictable and those that occur randomly. By making such a distinction, the model captures the ability of air carriers to reoptimize scheduling and crew assignments for predictable benefits. In addition, the model incorporates a life-cycle cost module for new technology, which applies the costs of nonrecurring acquisitions, recurring maintenance and operation, and training to each aircraft equipment type independently.

Gaier, Eric M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neighborhood sociome factors and pediatric asthma exacerbations: Protective role of tree crown density and importance of pharmacy access in Chicago's south side

Abstract Background Pediatric asthma exacerbations remain a critical public health concern, particularly in historically underserved urban settings. Objective This study investigates sociome factors—the social context of disease—associated with asthma exacerbations among children living in Chicago's South Side, leveraging clinical and publicly available generalizable census tract‐level datasets from agencies including ChiVes, the City of Chicago Data Portal, EPA, Census Bureau, HUD, NOAA, and more. The aim is to uncover novel hypotheses for potential new interventions. Methods A generalized linear model assessed associations with the outcome of asthma exacerbations while accounting for clustering at the patient level. Predictors included all variables from the Sociome Data Commons, including social, environmental, behavioral, economic, housing, and school variables. Results Predictors of decreased risk included patient age (+4.8 years, −22%), tree crown density (+6% coverage, −17%), parks per acre (+0.41, −8%), and labor market engagement (+0.8 points, −9%). Conversely, predictors of increased risk included increased distance to the nearest pharmacy (+0.28 miles, +12%), limited English skills (+2.3%, +10%), higher inequality (+0.08 points, +8%), and visits in the Spring (+11%) and Fall (+20%). Conclusion The results suggest that tree crown density, a novel finding in the context of asthma exacerbations, may play a protective role. Limited access to health care facilities such as pharmacies continues to complicate care. Clinical Implications These findings provide hypotheses for future interventions for long‐standing asthma disparities.

Allergy↗
NASA NTRS1975

Modeling arson - An exercise in qualitative model building

A detailed example is given of the role of von Neumann and Morgenstern's 1944 'expected utility theorem' (in the theory of games and economic behavior) in qualitative model building. Specifically, an arsonist's decision as to the amount of time to allocate to arson and related activities is modeled, and the responsiveness of this time allocation to changes in various policy parameters is examined. Both the activity modeled and the method of presentation are intended to provide an introduction to the scope and power of the expected utility theorem in modeling situations of 'choice under uncertainty'. The robustness of such a model is shown to vary inversely with the number of preference restrictions used in the analysis. The fewer the restrictions, the wider is the class of agents to which the model is applicable, and accordingly more confidence is put in the derived results. A methodological discussion on modeling human behavior is included.

Heineke, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided inputs through in-depth discussion in breakout sessions, plenary sessions on break-out results, and several panels that provided key insights about indicators, lessons learned through experience with developing and implementing indicators, and thoughts on how the NCA could proceed to develop indicators for the NCA.

Kenney, Melissa A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Psychology of Cost Estimating

Cost estimation for large (and even not so large) government programs is a challenge. The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate cost estimates. These overruns can be the result of inadequate technology readiness or requirements definition, the whims of politicians or government bureaucrats, or even as failures of the cost estimating profession itself. However, there may be another reason for cost overruns that is right in front of us, but only recently have we begun to grasp it: the fact that cost estimators and their customers are human. The last 70+ years of research into human psychology and behavioral economics have yielded amazing findings into how we humans process and use information to make judgments and decisions. What these scientists have uncovered is surprising: humans are often irrational and illogical beings, making decisions based on factors such as emotion and perception, rather than facts and data. These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our cost estimates and how those cost estimates are used. We cost estimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our cost estimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers. By understanding how our customers think, and more importantly, why they think the way they do, we can have more productive relationships and greater influence. By using psychology to our advantage, we can more effectively help the decision maker and our organizations make fact-based decisions.

Price, Andy↗
DOE OSTI2024

R-SEEDS Final Report

DER aggregation and grid digitalization imply a future grid that would benefit from more fluid interaction between the bulk power system and the distribution system. This scenario presents a challenge for grid modeling, which treats the two systems separately. Grid modeling also focuses on the engineering aspects of grids without incorporating modeling of the human and social dimensions of the grid as a cyber-physical-social system. The R-SEEDS project examines the integration of human and social models into grid modeling and its implications on decarbonization, energy justice, and distributional impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Powered by dGen Webinar [Slides]

NLR's Powered By Webinar Series featuring NLR's dGen Modeling Tool. The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGenTM) model simulates customer adoption of distributed energy resources for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the United States or other countries through 2050. The model enables analysis at multiple geographic levels (national, state, and utility, or below) and offers sophistication in representation of decision-making regarding economic and behavioral considerations. Analysts have used dGen to answer questions about load forecasting and integrated resource planning, policy analysis, locational value of distributed energy resources, and more. dGen is open source, and various energy organizations - including independent system operators, regional transmission organizations, and the California Energy Commission - use the model internally.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1984

Human capabilities in space

Man's ability to live and perform useful work in space was demonstrated throughout the history of manned space flight. Current planning envisions a multi-functional space station. Man's unique abilities to respond to the unforeseen and to operate at a level of complexity exceeding any reasonable amount of previous planning distinguish him from present day machines. His limitations, however, include his inherent inability to survive without protection, his limited strength, and his propensity to make mistakes when performing repetitive and monotonous tasks. By contrast, an automated system does routine and delicate tasks, exerts force smoothly and precisely, stores, and recalls large amounts of data, and performs deductive reasoning while maintaining a relative insensitivity to the environment. The establishment of a permanent presence of man in space demands that man and machines be appropriately combined in spaceborne systems. To achieve this optimal combination, research is needed in such diverse fields as artificial intelligence, robotics, behavioral psychology, economics, and human factors engineering.

Nicogossian, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Multi-Year Movements of Blacknose, Finetooth, & Sharpnose Sharks in the US South Atlantic Based on Monitoring Within a Regional-Scale Acoustic Telemetry Network

Despite their numerical abundance and economic value, the behavior of many small coastal sharks in the US South Atlantic has been only coarsely described. Here we present movement summaries for blacknose (Carcharhinus acronotus), finetooth (C. isodon), and Atlantic sharpnose shark (Rhizoprionodon terraenovae) as they travelled through a regional-scale acoustic telemetry network, offering direct comparisons of habitat utilization, site fidelity, and the extent and timing of coastal migrations. From 2013-2016, 165 total sharks were implanted with acoustic transmitters at Cape Canaveral, Florida, and tracked up to four years. While blacknose sharks were common off east Florida year-round, finetooth sharks were most abundant winter through early spring and sharpnose sharks summer through fall. Blacknose sharks also moved more slowly (mean 0.8 kilometers per hour) and had the broadest depth preferences, while finetooth sharks were strongly shore-associated and sharpnose preferred proportionally deeper waters. All species exhibited low site fidelity when at Cape Canaveral, remaining at the same site for more than 1 hour on average, even when associated with deeper hard-bottom sites. Most finetooth and many blacknose undertook spring migrations as far as Virginia and North Carolina, respectively, before returning to east Florida each winter. Sharpnose also made regular northward movements that were not as obviously seasonally-driven. Multiple individuals of all species, particularly females, returned briefly south to Cape Canaveral in mid-summer, illustrating that coastal migrations in these species are more akin to seasonal expansions of their geographic ranges as opposed to a synchronized shift of the entire population along the coast.

Reyier, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stability of aqueous neodymium complexes in carbonate-bearing solutions from 100–600 °C

Rare earth element exploration requires a quantitative understanding of factors governing their mobilization and economic concentration. However, the behavior of rare earth elements in carbonate- bearing hydrothermal fluids associated with carbonatite-hosted deposits is poorly understood, and conflicting mechanisms of rare earth transport by anionic ligands and alkali behavior have been described. Here, we report quantitative data to characterize the role of carbonate-bearing solutions in the hydrothermal mobilization of neodymium. Solubility studies of neodymium phosphate were performed at temperatures ranging from 100 to 600 °C in carbonate-bearing solutions. The thermodynamic data determined for the predominant complex were used to model the separation of neodymium from thorium in a simple flow-through system based on fluid and mineral compositions characteristic of carbonatite deposits. Our data suggest that neodymium transport is controlled by the stability of the carbonate species NdCO 3 OH o , and at temperatures of 500–600 °C, the concentrations of neodymium in solutions can reach ~1000 ppm.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Game Theory Approaches for System-level Incentive Design

This report presents a generalized Stackelberg game framework for designing and evaluating financial incentives that enhance power system resilience through strategic deployment of distributed energy resources(DERs) under various contingencies. The proposed approach addresses the challenge of coordinating individual community investment decisions to meet system-wide resilience objectives. The framework is demonstrated in a three-community test system subjected to two transmission contingency scenarios: inter-community line failure (Case 1) and complete main grid disconnection (Case 2). In both cases, three incentive levels are compared: a Base case with no financial incentives, and low and high incentive cases. In Case 1, the Base case (no incentives) results in a total installed DER capacity of 217.2 MW, with no load shedding due to alternative routing, but community costs remain high. Increasing incentives raises DER deployment to 286.9 MW, lowers aggregate community costs by $22M annually, and completely avoids the need for costly new transmission line construction. In Case 2, the Base case results in 24.3 MWh of unserved load; introducing incentives eliminates all load shedding and ensures up to 89 MWh of battery storage is available for emergency reserve. These results demonstrate that targeted incentives can dramatically improve grid resilience and cost-effectiveness. The framework thus offers policymakers and system planners a robust tool to quantify and compare the effectiveness of incentive programs for multi-community transmission networks behavior, system resilience, and economic efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure evolution and tin redistribution during oxidation of Zircaloy-4 at 500°C

Zirconium (Zr) alloys are widely used as fuel cladding in nuclear power reactors due to their thermal stability, mechanical durability, corrosion resistance, and low neutron absorption cross-section. However, their performance is challenged by oxidation in reactor environments, making the study of Zr alloy corrosion behavior crucial for ensuring the safety, longevity, and economic viability of nuclear power systems. While the oxidation behavior of Zr-based cladding materials has been extensively studied since the 1950s, a mechanistic understanding into the relationship between structure evolution, solute element redistribution, and properties remains elusive. Valuable insights may be obtained through advanced experimental methods, such as in-situ and high resolution microscopy techniques. Here, in this study, the oxidation behavior of Zircaloy-4 at 500 °C in O 2 is characterized using a multimodal advanced characterization approach. Using in-situ X-ray diffraction, the phase evolution from metastable to stable oxides is tracked in real time. Complementary high-resolution techniques, including electron microscopy and atom probe tomography, reveal nanoscale insights into the microstructural changes and solute redistribution across the oxide/metal interface. Nanohardness mapping across the oxide/metal interface highlights localized mechanical property variations that may be linked to changes in microstructure and crystal structure within the oxide layer. These findings offer valuable insights into the microstructure and property evolution of Zircaloy-4 during oxidation, contributing to a better understanding of microstructural changes in Zr-based alloys under oxidative environments.

APT↗
NASA NTRS2010

Physics of Life: A Model for Non-Newtonian Properties of Living Systems

This innovation proposes the reconciliation of the evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics via the introduction of the First Principle for modeling behavior of living systems. The structure of the model is quantum-inspired: it acquires the topology of the Madelung equation in which the quantum potential is replaced with the information potential. As a result, the model captures the most fundamental property of life: the progressive evolution; i.e. the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The mathematical structure of the model can be obtained from the Newtonian equations of motion (representing the motor dynamics) coupled with the corresponding Liouville equation (representing the mental dynamics) via information forces. All these specific non-Newtonian properties equip the model with the levels of complexity that matches the complexity of life, and that makes the model applicable for description of behaviors of ecological, social, and economical systems. Rather than addressing the six aspects of life (organization, metabolism, growth, adaptation, response to stimuli, and reproduction), this work focuses only on biosignature ; i.e. the mechanical invariants of life, and in particular, the geometry and kinematics of behavior of living things. Living things obey the First Principles of Newtonian mechanics. One main objective of this model is to extend the First Principles of classical physics to include phenomenological behavior on living systems; to develop a new mathematical formalism within the framework of classical dynamics that would allow one to capture the specific properties of natural or artificial living systems such as formation of the collective mind based upon abstract images of the selves and non-selves; exploitation of this collective mind for communications and predictions of future expected characteristics of evolution; and for making decisions and implementing the corresponding corrections if the expected scenario is different from the originally planned one. This approach postulates that even a primitive living species possesses additional, non-Newtonian properties that are not included in the laws of Newtonian or statistical mechanics. These properties follow from a privileged ability of living systems to possess a self-image (a concept introduced in psychology) and to interact with it. The proposed mathematical system is based on the coupling of the classical dynamical system representing the motor dynamics with the corresponding Liouville equation describing the evolution of initial uncertainties in terms of the probability density and representing the mental dynamics. The coupling is implemented by the information-based supervising forces that can be associated with self-awareness. These forces fundamentally change the pattern of the probability evolution, and therefore, lead to a major departure of the behavior of living systems from the patterns of both Newtonian and statistical mechanics. This innovation is meant to capture the signature of life based only on observable behavior, not on any biochemistry. This will not prevent the use of this model for developing artificial living systems, as well as for studying some general properties of behavior of natural, living systems.

Zak, Michail↗