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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Analysis of TID process, geometry, and bias condition dependence in 14-nm FinFETs and implications for RF and SRAM performance

Here, total ionizing dose results are provided, showing the effects of different threshold adjust implant processes and irradiation bias conditions of 14-nm FinFETs. Minimal radiation-induced threshold voltage shift across a variety of transistor types is observed. Off-state leakage current of nMOSFET transistors exhibits a strong gate bias dependence, indicating electrostatic gate control of the sub-fin region and the corresponding parasitic conduction path are the largest concern for radiation hardness in FinFET technology. The high-Vth transistors exhibit the best irradiation performance across all bias conditions, showing a reasonably small change in off-state leakage current and Vth, while the low-Vth transistors exhibit a larger change in off-state leakage current. The “worst-case” bias condition during irradiation for both pull-down and pass-gate nMOSFETs in static random access memory is determined to be the on-state (Vgs = Vdd). We find the nMOSFET pull-down and pass-gate transistors of the SRAM bit-cell show less radiation-induced degradation due to transistor geometry and channel doping differences than the low-Vth transistor. Near-threshold operation is presented as a methodology for reducing radiation-induced increases in off-state device leakage current. In a 14-nm FinFET technology, the modeling indicates devices with high channel stop doping show the most robust response to TID allowing stable operation of ring oscillators and the SRAM bit-cell with minimal shift in critical operating characteristics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impacts of horizontal resolution on the seasonally-dependent biases of the northeastern Pacific ITCZ in coupled climate models.

Double-ITCZ has puzzled climate model community for more than two decades. Here, we found that over the eastern Pacific, precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the NCAR CESM1 are seasonally-dependent, with positive (negative) precipitation/SST biases during boreal summer/fall (winter/spring), although the easterly wind bias persists around the year. This seasonally-dependent bias of precipitation/SST is found to be caused by the failure of the model to reproduce the climatological seasonal wind reversal of North American monsoon. During winter/spring, the climatological easterly wind dominates, so the stronger wind speed in the model enhances the evaporation and lowers the SST. It is opposite when the climatological wind turns to westerly during summer/fall. The easterly wind bias also occurs in the atmospheric model when the observation SST is prescribed, suggesting it is of atmospheric origin. Further, the easterly wind bias is mainly evident in the lower troposphere and quite independent of time, implying the effect of complex and narrow-ranged Central American topography, which is not depicted well in the coarse model resolution. When the model resolution is doubled, both SST and precipitation are improved with the reduced easterly wind bias. During boreal spring, when ITCZ bias is most significant, the northern and southern ITCZ can be improved by 29% and 18.8% respectively in the higher resolution. Finally, we suggest that these seasonally-dependent biases over the eastern Pacific are quite universal among 37 CMIP5 coupled models, and the ongoing CMIP6 project will provide a valuable opportunity to examine whether the bias can be reduced by increasing model resolution.

Song, Fengfei↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linking Large-Scale Double-ITCZ Bias to Local-Scale Drizzling Bias in Climate Models

Tropical precipitation in climate models presents significant biases in both the large-scale pattern (i.e., double intertropical convergence zone bias) and local-scale characteristics (i.e., drizzling bias with too frequent drizzle/convection and reduced occurrences of no and heavy precipitation). By untangling the coupled system and analyzing the biases in precipitation, cloud, and radiation, this study shows that local-scale drizzling bias in atmospheric models can lead to large-scale double-ITCZ bias in coupled models by inducing convective-regime-dependent biases in precipitation and cloud radiative effects (CRE). The double-ITCZ bias consists of a hemispherically asymmetric component that arises from the asymmetric SST bias and a nearly symmetric component that exists in atmospheric models without the SST bias. By increasing light rain but reducing heavy rain, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) precipitation bias in the moderate (strong) convective regime, leading to the nearly symmetric wet bias in atmospheric models. By affecting the cloud profile, local-scale drizzling bias induces positive (negative) CRE bias in the stratocumulus (convective) regime in atmospheric models. Because the stratocumulus (convective) region is climatologically more pronounced in the southern (northern) tropics, the CRE bias is deemed to be hemispherically asymmetric and drives warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the southern (northern) tropics when coupled to ocean. Our results suggest that correcting local-scale drizzling bias is critical for fixing large-scale double-ITCZ bias. Finally, the drizzling and double-ITCZ biases are not alleviated in models with mesoscale (0.25°–0.5°) or even storm-resolving (~3 km) resolution, implying that either large-eddy simulation or fundamental improvement in small-scale subgrid parameterizations is needed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Simulated building energy demand biases resulting from the use of representative weather stations

Numerical building models are typically forced with weather data from a limited number of “representative cities” or weather stations representing different climate regions. The use of representative weather stations reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity in weather that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate. We quantify the potential reduction in bias from using an increasing number of weather stations over the western U.S. The approach is based on deriving temperature and load time series using incrementally more weather stations, ranging from 8 to roughly 150, to capture weather across different seasons. Using 8 stations, one from each climate zone, across the western U.S. results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 7.2°F with respect to a spatially-resolved gridded dataset. The mean absolute bias drops to 2.8°F using all available weather stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude could translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may use these types of simulations. Increasing the size of the domain over which biases are calculated reduces their magnitude as positive and negative biases may cancel out. Using 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% overestimation of peak building loads during both summer and winter. Using weather stations close to population centers reduces both mean and peak load biases. This approach could be used by others designing aggregate building simulations to understand the sensitivity to their choice of weather stations used to drive the models.

Burleyson, Casey D.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Subtropical Eastern North Pacific SST bias in earth system models

Karthik Balaguru (PNNL), Luke Van Roekel (LLNL), L. Ruby Leung (PNNL) and Milena Veneziani (LLNL) Abstract: This study systematically evaluates the warm SST bias in the Subtropical Eastern North Pacific (SENP), a problem plaguing most CMIP6 models, using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM). Compared to the model at its standard resolution (1o atmosphere, 30-60 km ocean), the SST bias improves in several regions at high resolution (0.25o atmosphere, 18-6 km ocean) except in subtropical eastern boundary regions, such as the SENP. A mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that errors in the surface radiative fluxes and horizontal heat advection are primarily responsible for the bias. Analysis of HighResMIP models indicates that the lack of improvement in the SENP SST bias with resolution is not native to E3SM alone. A larger CMIP6 inter-model correlation of SST bias with biases in surface winds than radiation highlights the important role of large-scale circulation biases in the SENP SST bias in coupled models.

Balaguru, Karthik↗
DOE OSTI2018

Role of Troposphere-Convection-Land Coupling in the Southwestern Amazon Precipitation Bias of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)

The Amazon forest plays an important role in the tropical circulation and global water and biogeochemical cycles. However, the common Amazon precipitation biases in global climate models undermine our ability to understand future changes in the Amazon and their global consequences. The Community Earth System Model exhibits a persistent wet season dry bias over the southwestern Amazon. The bias is also characterized by inaccurate diurnal timing and intensity of rainfall events. Analysis of a diverse set of simulations suggests that the bias originates from local processes. A known land model bias in the partitioning of surface energy fluxes is found not to contribute significantly to the rainfall bias. Key model processes are identified to be the low-level divergent circulation controlling horizontal moisture flow and the sensitivity of the modeled deep convection to the lower tropospheric moisture. The lower tropospheric moisture divergence dictates the spatiotemporal distributions of convective precipitation through parameterized entrainment mixing, which generally improves the rainfall diurnal cycle. However, it also limits convective precipitation over the areas with frequent and large-scale divergence in the lower troposphere. The southwestern Amazon is such an area, particularly in the late afternoon, although uncertainty exists in the low-level flow in the simulation and reanalyses. One way to sustain rainfall in the presence of low-level divergence is a convective trigger based on both the moisture and temperature changes by large-scale processes, which is shown to help in reducing the dry bias.

Sakaguchi, Koichi↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Correspondence between Seasonal Forecast Biases and Long-Term Climate Biases in Sea Surface Temperature

In this paper, the correspondence between mean sea surface temperature (SST) biases in retrospective seasonal forecasts (hindcasts) and long-term climate simulations from five global climate models is examined to diagnose the degree to which systematic SST biases develop on seasonal time scales. The hindcasts are from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the climate simulations are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis suggests that most robust climatological SST biases begin to form within 6 months of a realistically initialized integration, although the growth rate varies with location, time, and model. In regions with large biases, interannual variability and ensemble spread is much smaller than the climatological bias. Additional ensemble hindcasts of the Community Earth System Model with a different initialization method suggest that initial conditions do matter for the initial bias growth, but the overall global bias patterns are similar after 6 months. A hindcast approach is more suitable to study biases over the tropics and sub-tropics than over the extra-tropics because of smaller initial biases and faster bias growth. The rapid emergence of SST biases makes it likely that fast processes with times scales shorter than the seasonal time scales in the atmosphere and upper ocean are responsible for a substantial part of the climatological SST biases. Studying the growth of biases may provide important clues to the causes and ultimately the amelioration of these biases. Further, initialized seasonal hindcasts can profitably be used in the development of high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Perturbation theory for modeling galaxy bias: validation with simulations of the Dark Energy Survey

We describe perturbation theory (PT) models of galaxy bias for applications to photometric galaxy surveys. We model the galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-matter correlation functions in configuration space and validate against measurements from mock catalogs designed for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that an effective PT model with five galaxy bias parameters provides a good description of the 3D correlation functions above scales of 4 Mpc/$h$ and $z < 1$. Our tests show that at the projected precision of the DES-Year 3 analysis, two of the non-linear bias parameters can be fixed to their co-evolution values, and a third (the $k^2$ term for higher derivative bias) set to zero. The agreement is typically at the 2 percent level over scales of interest, which is the statistical uncertainty of our simulation measurements. To achieve this level of agreement, our {\it fiducial} model requires using the full non-linear matter power spectrum (rather than the 1-loop PT one). We also measure the relationship between the non-linear and linear bias parameters and compare them to their expected co-evolution values. We use these tests to motivate the galaxy bias model and scale cuts for the cosmological analysis of the Dark Energy Survey; our conclusions are generally applicable to all photometric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

CAUSES: Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Abstract Many Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and climate models exhibit too warm lower tropospheres near the midlatitude continents. The warm bias has been shown to coincide with important surface radiation biases that likely play a critical role in the inception or the growth of the warm bias. This paper presents an attribution study on the net radiation biases in nine model simulations, performed in the framework of the CAUSES project (Clouds Above the United States and Errors at the Surface). Contributions from deficiencies in the surface properties, clouds, water vapor, and aerosols are quantified, using an array of radiation measurement stations near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site. Furthermore, an in‐depth analysis is shown to attribute the radiation errors to specific cloud regimes. The net surface shortwave radiation is overestimated in all models throughout most of the simulation period. Cloud errors are shown to contribute most to this overestimation, although nonnegligible contributions from the surface albedo exist in most models. Missing deep cloud events and/or simulating deep clouds with too weak cloud radiative effects dominate in the cloud‐related radiation errors. Some models have compensating errors between excessive occurrence of deep cloud but largely underestimating their radiative effect, while other models miss deep cloud events altogether. Surprisingly, even the latter models tend to produce too much and too frequent afternoon surface precipitation. This suggests that rather than issues with the triggering of deep convection, cloud radiative deficiencies are related to too weak convective cloud detrainment and too large precipitation efficiencies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Spatial clustering of dark matter haloes: secondary bias, neighbour bias, and the influence of massive neighbours on halo properties

Here, we explore the phenomenon commonly known as halo assembly bias, whereby dark matter haloes of the same mass are found to be more or less clustered when a second halo property is considered, for haloes in the mass range 3.7 × 10 11 –5.0 × 10 13 h –1 M ⊙ . Using the Large Suite of Dark Matter Simulations (LasDamas) we consider nine commonly used halo properties and find that a clustering bias exists if haloes are binned by mass or by any other halo property. This secondary bias implies that no single halo property encompasses all the spatial clustering information of the halo population. The mean values of some halo properties depend on their halo's distance to a more massive neighbour. Halo samples selected by having high values of one of these properties therefore inherit a neighbour bias such that they are much more likely to be close to a much more massive neighbour. This neighbour bias largely accounts for the secondary bias seen in haloes binned by mass and split by concentration or age. However, haloes binned by other mass-like properties still show a secondary bias even when the neighbour bias is removed. The secondary bias of haloes selected by their spin behaves differently than that for other halo properties, suggesting that the origin of the spin bias is different than of other secondary biases .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An independent analysis of bias sources and variability in wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimation methods

The wind resource assessment community has long had the goal of reducing the bias between wind plant pre-construction energy yield assessment (EYA) and the observed annual energy production (AEP). This comparison is typically made between the 50% probability of exceedance (P50) value of the EYA and the long-term corrected operational AEP (hereafter OA P50), and is known as the P50 bias. The industry has critically lacked an independent analysis of bias reduction investigated across multiple consultants to identify the greatest sources of uncertainty and variance in the EYA process and the best opportunities for uncertainty reduction. The present study addresses this gap by benchmarking consultant methodologies against each other and against operational data at a scale not seen before in industry collaborations. We consider data from 10 wind plants and evaluate discrepancies between eight consultancies in the steps taken from estimates of gross to net energy. Consultants tend to overestimate the gross energy produced at the turbines and then compensate by further overestimating downstream losses, leading to a mean P50 bias near zero, still with significant variability among the individual wind plants. Within our data sample, we find that consultant estimates of all loss categories, except environmental losses, tend to reduce the project-to-project variability of the P50 bias. The disagreement between consultants, however, remains flat throughout the addition of losses. Finally, we find that differences in consultants’ estimates of project performance can lead to differences up to $10/MWh in the levelized cost of energy for a wind plant.

Todd, Austin C.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Galaxy bias from the Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data: Combining galaxy density maps and weak lensing maps

We measure the redshift evolution of galaxy bias for a magnitude-limited galaxy sample by combining the galaxy density maps and weak lensing shear maps for a ~116 deg 2 area of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Science Verification (SV) data. This method was first developed in Amara et al. and later re-examined in a companion paper with rigorous simulation tests and analytical treatment of tomographic measurements. In this work we apply this method to the DES SV data and measure the galaxy bias for a i < 22.5 galaxy sample. We find the galaxy bias and 1σ error bars in four photometric redshift bins to be 1.12 ± 0.19 (z = 0.2–0.4), 0.97 ± 0.15 (z = 0.4–0.6), 1.38 ± 0.39 (z = 0.6–0.8), and 1.45 ± 0.56 (z = 0.8–1.0). These measurements are consistent at the 2σ level with measurements on the same data set using galaxy clustering and cross-correlation of galaxies with cosmic microwave background lensing, with most of the redshift bins consistent within the 1σ error bars. In addition, our method provides the only σ8 independent constraint among the three. We forward model the main observational effects using mock galaxy catalogues by including shape noise, photo-z errors, and masking effects. We show that our bias measurement from the data is consistent with that expected from simulations. With the forthcoming full DES data set, we expect this method to provide additional constraints on the galaxy bias measurement from more traditional methods. Moreover, in the process of our measurement, we build up a 3D mass map that allows further exploration of the dark matter distribution and its relation to galaxy evolution.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

How to optimally constrain galaxy assembly bias: supplement projected correlation functions with count-in-cells statistics

Most models for the statistical connection between galaxies and their haloes ignore the possibility that galaxy properties may be correlated with halo properties other than halo mass, a phenomenon known as galaxy assembly bias. And yet, it is known that such correlations can lead to systematic errors in the interpretation of survey data that are analysed using traditional halo occupation models. At present, the degree to which galaxy assembly bias may be present in the real Universe, and the best strategies for constraining it remain uncertain. We study the ability of several observables to constrain galaxy assembly bias from redshift survey data using the decorated halo occupation distribution (dHOD), an empirical model of the galaxy-halo connection that incorporates assembly bias. We cover an expansive set of observables, including the projected two-point correlation function w p ( r p ), the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal &Delta;Σ( r p ), the void probability function VPF( r ), the distributions of counts-in-cylinders P(NCIC), and counts-in-annuli P(NCIA), and the distribution of the ratio of counts in cylinders of different sizes P ( N 2 /N 5 ). We find that despite the frequent use of the combination w p ( r p ) + &Delta;Σ( r p ) in interpreting galaxy data, the count statistics, P ( N CIC ) and P ( N CIA ), are generally more efficient in constraining galaxy assembly bias when combined with w p ( r p ). Constraints based upon w p ( r p ) and &Delta;Σ(rp) share common degeneracy directions in the parameter space, while combinations of r p w p ( r p ) with the count statistics are more complementary. Therefore, we strongly suggest that count statistics should be used to complement the canonical observables in future studies of the galaxy-halo connection.

galaxies: evolution↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collar Properties and Measurement Time Confer Minimal Bias Overall on Annual Soil Respiration Estimates in a Global Database

Abstract Measuring the soil‐to‐atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux (soil respiration, R S ) is important to understanding terrestrial carbon balance and to forecasting climate change. Such measurements are frequently made using measurement collars permanently inserted into the soil surface. However, differences in measurement duration and frequency, as well as collar properties, may lead to biases in the estimation of annual R S . Using a newly updated global R S database (SRDB‐V5), we investigated the annual R S bias associated with five methodological factors: collar height, collar coverage area, collar insertion depth, measurement duration, and measurement frequency. We found that annual R S was negatively correlated with collar insertion depth, consistent with the idea that collar insertion cuts roots and thus reduces R S . Annual R S was also negatively related with collar height and collar coverage area, perhaps because uniform head‐space mixing is difficult to achieve in larger volume chambers; however, these effects were quantitatively small (bias of ~2% to 10% of mean R S ). We found no correlation of measurement duration or measurement frequency with annual R S . These findings suggest that variation in R S methodology generally introduces minimal bias overall. Therefore, compilations of minimally adjusted annual R S measurements provide a reliable resource for synthesis studies, global annual R S modeling, and investigation of how soil carbon responds to climate change.

Jian, Jinshi↗
DOE OSTI2024

Galaxy bias in the era of LSST: perturbative bias expansions

Upcoming imaging surveys will allow for high signal-to-noise measurements of galaxy clustering at small scales. In this work, we present the results of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) bias challenge, the goal of which is to compare the performance of different nonlinear galaxy bias models in the context of LSST Year 10 (Y10) data. Specifically, we compare two perturbative approaches, Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) and Eulerian perturbation theory (EPT) to two variants of Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT), with our fiducial implementation of these models including terms up to second order in the bias expansion as well as nonlocal bias and deviations from Poissonian stochasticity. Here, we consider a variety of different simulated galaxy samples and test the performance of the bias models in a tomographic joint analysis of LSST-Y10-like galaxy clustering, galaxy-galaxy-lensing and cosmic shear. We find both HEFT methods as well as LPT and EPT combined with non-perturbative predictions for the matter power spectrum to yield unbiased constraints on cosmological parameters up to at least a maximal scale of k max = 0.4 Mpc -1 for all samples considered, even in the presence of assembly bias. While we find that we can reduce the complexity of the bias model for HEFT without compromising fit accuracy, this is not generally the case for the perturbative models. We find significant detections of non-Poissonian stochasticity in all cases considered, and our analysis shows evidence that small-scale galaxy clustering predominantly improves constraints on galaxy bias rather than cosmological parameters. These results therefore suggest that the systematic uncertainties associated with current nonlinear bias models are likely to be subdominant compared to other sources of error for tomographic analyses of upcoming photometric surveys, which bodes well for future galaxy clustering analyses using these high signal-to-noise data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Beyond assembly bias: exploring secondary halo biases for cluster-size haloes

Secondary halo bias, commonly known as ‘assembly bias’, is the dependence of halo clustering on a halo property other than mass. This prediction of the Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology is essential to modelling the galaxy distribution to high precision and interpreting clustering measurements. As the name suggests, different manifestations of secondary halo bias have been thought to originate from halo assembly histories. We show conclusively that this is incorrect for cluster-size haloes. We present an up-to-date summary of secondary halo biases of high-mass haloes due to various halo properties including concentration, spin, several proxies of assembly history, and subhalo properties. While concentration, spin, and the abundance and radial distribution of subhaloes exhibit significant secondary biases, properties that directly quantify halo assembly history do not. In fact, the entire assembly histories of haloes in pairs are nearly identical to those of isolated haloes. In general, a global correlation between two halo properties does not predict whether or not these two properties exhibit similar secondary biases. For example, assembly history and concentration (or subhalo abundance) are correlated for both paired and isolated haloes, but follow slightly different conditional distributions in these two cases. Lastly, this results in a secondary halo bias due to concentration (or subhalo abundance), despite the lack of assembly bias in the strict sense for cluster-size haloes. Due to this complexity, caution must be exercised in using any one halo property as a proxy to study the secondary bias due to another property.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Bias due to neutrinos must not uncorrect'd go

It is a well known fact that galaxies are biased tracers of the distribution of matter in the Universe. The galaxy bias is usually factored as a function of redshift and scale, and approximated as being scale-independent on large, linear scales. In cosmologies with massive neutrinos, the galaxy bias defined with respect to the total matter field (cold dark matter, baryons, and non-relativistic neutrinos) also depends on the sum of the neutrino masses M ν , and becomes scale-dependent even on large scales. This effect has been usually neglected given the sensitivity of current surveys. Yet, it becomes a severe systematic for future surveys aiming to provide the first detection of non-zero M ν . The effect can be corrected for by defining the bias with respect to the density field of cold dark matter and baryons, rather than the total matter field. In this work, we provide a simple prescription for correctly mitigating the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias effect in a practical way. We clarify a number of subtleties regarding how to properly implement this correction in the presence of redshift-space distortions and non-linear evolution of perturbations. We perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis on simulated galaxy clustering data that match the expected sensitivity of the Euclid survey. We reveal that the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias can lead to important shifts in both the inferred mean value of M ν , as well as its uncertainty, and provide an analytical explanation for the magnitude of the shifts. We show how these shifts propagate to the inferred values of other cosmological parameters correlated with M ν , such as the cold dark matter physical density Ω cdm h 2 and the scalar spectral index n s . In the end, we find that correctly accounting for the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias will be of crucial importance for future galaxy clustering analyses. We encourage the cosmology community to correctly account for this effect using the simple prescription we present in our work. The tools necessary to easily correct for the neutrino-induced scale-dependent bias will be made publicly available in an upcoming release of the Boltzmann solver CLASS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗