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At least 19 records

Curation of a list of chemicals in biosolids from EPA National Sewage Sludge Surveys & Biennial Review Reports

Section 405(d) of the Clean Water Act requires the US Environmental Protection Agency to review sewage sludge regulations every two years to identify any additional pollutants that may occur in biosolids and to set regulations for pollutants identified in biosolids if sufficient scientific evidence shows they may harm human health or the environment. To date, EPA has conducted eight biennial reviews to identify chemical and microbial pollutants and three national sewage sludge surveys to identify pollutants and obtain concentration data for chemicals found in biosolids. Prior to 2021, there was inconsistent reporting of chemicals identified and EPA did not cumulatively track chemicals in biosolids. Through the efforts presented here, EPA produced a list of 726 chemicals and structure-based classes found in biosolids based on biennial reviews and national sewage sludge surveys. Summary statistics of concentration data are also reported for the 484 chemicals found in the three national sewage sludge surveys. The creation of the Biosolids List supports EPA in assessing the potential risk of chemical pollutants found in biosolids.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing plant select agent designation and decision making

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents (Select Agents List) that threaten crops of economic importance to the United States and regulates the procedures governing containment, incident response, and the security of entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews their select agent list, utilizing assessments by subject matter experts (SMEs) to rank the agents. We explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a decision support framework (DSF) to support the USDA DASAT biennial review process. The evaluation includes both current and non-select agents to provide a robust assessment. We initially conducted a literature review of 16 pathogens against 9 criteria for assessing plant health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this analysis. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for ensuring accuracy. Scoring criteria were adopted to ensure consistency. The MCDA supported the expectation that select agents would rank high on the relative risk scale when considering the agricultural consequences of a bioterrorism attack; however, application of analytical thresholds as a basis for designating select agents led to some exceptions to current designations. A second analytical approach used agent-specific data to designate key criteria in a DSF logic tree format to identify pathogens of low concern that can be ruled out for further consideration as select agents. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing select agent designation for agricultural animal pathogens

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents and toxins (Select Agent List) that potentially threaten agricultural health and safety, the procedures governing the transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews the Select Agent List, using subject matter experts (SMEs) to perform an assessment and rank the agents. To assist the USDA DASAT biennial review process, we explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a Decision Support Framework (DSF) in a logic tree format to identify pathogens for consideration as select agents, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its robustness and generality. We conducted a literature review of 41 pathogens against 21 criteria for assessing agricultural threat, economic impact, and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this assessment. The most prominent data gaps were those for aerosol stability and animal infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. The MCDA analysis supported the intuitive sense that select agents should rank high on the relative risk scale when considering agricultural health consequences of a bioterrorism attack. However, comparing select agents with non-select agents indicated that there was not a clean break in scores to suggest thresholds for designating select agents, requiring subject matter expertise collectively to establish which analytical results were in good agreement to support the intended purpose in designating select agents. The DSF utilized a logic tree approach to identify pathogens that are of sufficiently low concern that they can be ruled out from consideration as a select agent. In contrast to the MCDA approach, the DSF rules out a pathogen if it fails to meet even one criteria threshold. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere 1996: An Assessment Report to Congress and the Environmental Protection Agency

This document is issued in response to the Clean Air Act Amendment of 1990, Public Law 101-549, which mandates that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and other key agencies submit triennial report to congress and the Environmental Protection Agency. NASA is charged with the responsibility to report on the state of our knowledge of the Earth's upper atmosphere, particularly the Stratosphere. Part 1 of this report summarizes the objectives, status, and accomplishments of the research tasks supported under NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Program and Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Analysis Program for the period of 1994-1996. Part 2 (this document) presents summaries of several scientific assessments, reviews, and summaries. These include the executive summaries of two scientific assessments: (Section B) 'Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1994'; (Section C) 'l995 Scientific Assessment of the Atmospheric Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft); end of mission/series statements for three stratospherically-focused measurement campaigns: (Section D) 'ATLAS End-of-Series Statement'; (Section E) 'ASHOE/MAESA End-of-Mission Statement'; (Section F) 'TOTE/VOTE End-of-Mission Statement'; a summary of NASA's latest biennial review of fundamental photochemical processes important to atmospheric chemistry 'Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modeling'; and (Section H) the section 'Atmospheric Ozone Research" from the Mission to Planet Earth Science Research Plan, which describes NASA's current and future research activities related to both tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry.

Kurylo, M. J.↗

2023 Project Peer Review Report

The Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) within the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy supports the research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) of technologies aimed at mobilizing domestic renewable carbon resources for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions across the U.S. economy. BETO systematically prioritizes RD&D into technology opportunities across a range of emerging scientific breakthroughs and technology readiness levels in the subprogram areas illustrated in Figure 1. This approach supports a diverse portfolio while developing the most promising and widely applicable technologies, testing technologies as integrated processes, and demonstrating integrated processes to support scale-up. These technologies will use a broad variety of renewable carbon resources to produce increasing volumes of biofuels and bioproducts. More information on BETO’s mission, goals, and strategic approaches can be found in the Bioenergy Technologies Office Multi-Year Program Plan. The biennial Peer Review process enables external stakeholders to provide feedback on the responsible use of taxpayer funding and develop recommendations for the most efficient and effective ways to accelerate the development of a bioenergy industry. This report includes the results of the Project Peer Review meeting held on April 3–7, 2023, in Denver, Colorado.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

2019 Project Peer Review Report

This document summarizes the evaluations provided by an independent external panel of experts at the 2019 U.S. Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office's Peer Review meeting on March 4–7, 2019 in Denver, CO. BETO manages a diverse portfolio of technologies covering the full spectrum of bioenergy production, from the feedstock source to end use. BETO systematically prioritizes research and development (R&D) into technology opportunities across a range of emerging scientific breakthroughs and technology-readiness levels. This approach supports a diverse R&D portfolio while developing the most promising and widely applicable technologies, testing technologies as integrated processes, and verifying integrated processes at the engineering scale. These technologies will use a broad variety of currently underused domestic biomass and waste resources to produce increasing volumes of biofuels, bioproducts, and biopower. The biennial peer review process enables external stakeholders to provide feedback on the responsible use of taxpayer funding and develop recommendations for the most efficient and effective ways to accelerate the development of a bioenergy industry. BETO completed these reviews in 2019. This report includes the results of both the Project Peer Review meeting held in March 2019 and the Program Management Review meeting held in July 2019.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The role of the seasonal cycle in the quasi-biennial oscillation of ozone

The evidence for seasonal synchronization of the ozone quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is reviewed, showing how this behavior is not expected on the basis of QBO transport alone but may arise due to the seasonal cycle. Near the equator, the ozone QBO is closely tied to the dynamical QBO and exhibits the same period as that oscillation. Maximum column ozone is attained soon after the transition to westerlies at 50 mb. In the subtropics, the ozone QBO is strongly tied to the seasonal cycle, with anomalies centered in the winter-spring season irrespective of QBO phase. These anomalies result from the interaction of the annual cycle and the QBO. Numerical model results are reported which establish that hemispheric asymmetry in the ozone QBO does not require seasonal asymmetries in the strength or location of the Hadley circulation. The fundamental cause of hemispheric asymmetry in the subtropical ozone QBO is the timing of equatorial, ozone anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle.

Gray, Lesley J.↗

The development and use of decision support framework for informing selection of select agent toxins with modelling studies to inform permissible toxin amounts

Many countries have worked diligently to establish and implement policies and processes to regulate high consequence pathogens and toxins that could have a significant public health impact if misused. In the United States, the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-132, 1996), as amended by the Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-188, 2002) requires that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) [through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] establish a list of bacteria, viruses, and toxins that have the potential to pose a severe threat to public health and safety. Currently, this list is reviewed and updated on a biennial basis using input from subject matter experts (SMEs). We have developed decision support framework (DSF) approaches to facilitate selection of select toxins and, where toxicity data are known, conducted modelling studies to inform selection of toxin amounts that should be excluded from select agent regulations. Exclusion limits allow laboratories to possess toxins under an established limit to support their research or teaching activities without the requirement to register with the Federal Select Agent Program. Fact sheets capturing data from a previously vetted SME workshop convened by CDC, literature review and SME input were developed to assist in evaluating toxins using the DSF approach. The output of the DSF analysis agrees with the current select toxin designations, and no other toxins evaluated in this study were recommended for inclusion on the select agent and toxin list. To inform the selection of exclusion limits, attack scenarios were developed to estimate the amount of toxin needed to impact public health. Scenarios consisted of simulated aerosol releases of a toxin in high-population-density public facilities and the introduction of a toxin into a daily consumable product supply chain. Using published inhalation and ingestion median toxic dose (TD 50 ) and median lethal dose (LD 50 ) values, where available, a range of toxin amounts was examined to estimate the number of people exposed to these amounts in these scenarios. Based on data generated by these models, we proposed toxin exclusion values corresponding to levels below those that would trigger a significant public health response (i.e., amounts estimated to expose up to ten people by inhalation or one hundred people by ingestion to LD 50 or TD 50 levels of toxin in the modeled scenarios).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Global QBO in circulation and ozone. Part 1: Reexamination of observational evidence

Observational evidence for a global quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) pattern is reviewed. In particular, the presence of an extratropical, as well as an equatorial, component of the QBO signal in column ozone is established. It is found that the ozone interannual variability is such that as one moves away from the Tropics, the frequency spectrum of the anomaly changes from one that is dominated by the equatorial QBO frequency of 1/30 mo to a two-peak spectrum around the two frequencies: 1/30 mo and 1/20 mo. Instead of treating the 1/20 mo frequency as a separate phenomenon to be filtered away in extracting the QBO in the extratropics, as was previously done, the authors argue that both peaks are integral parts of the extratropical QBO phenomenon. The 1/20 mo frequency happens to be the difference combination of the QBO frequency 1/30 mo and the annual frequency 1/12 mo. Therefore, it can represent the result of the QBO modulating an annual cycle. The authors suggest that previous methods of extracting the extratropical QBO signal severely underestimated the contribution of the QBO to the interannual variability of ozone when data are filtered to pass only the component with the period of equatorial QBO. Further, it is argued that the transport of equatorial QBO ozone anomaly by a non-QBO circulation can at most account for 6-8 Dobson units (DU) of the observed interannual variability of column ozone in the extratropics. The remaining variability (up to 20 DU) probably cannot be produced without an anomaly in the transporting circulation in the extratropics.

Tung, K. K.↗

NASA's Microgravity Materials Science Program

Materials Science research programs are funded by NASA through the Microgravity Research Division. Such programs are normally designated as flight definition or ground based and can be awarded initially for up to four years. Selection is through a peer review process in response to a biennial NASA Research Announcement (NRA). The next announcement is due in November 1998 with proposals due in March 1999. Topics of special interest to NASA are described in the guidelines for proposal writing within the NRA. NASA's interest in materials is wide and covers a range which includes metals and alloys, ceramics, glasses, polymers, non-linear optics, aerogels and nanostructures. With increasing interest in the Human Exploration and Development of Space (HEDS) program, the materials research funded will not be exclusively devoted to processes dependent on microgravity, but will also support materials of strategic interest in meeting NASA's long range plans of interplanetary travel.

Gillies, Donald C.↗

ARES Biennial Report 2012 Final

Since the return of the first lunar samples, what is now the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES) Directorate has had curatorial responsibility for all NASA-held extraterrestrial materials. Originating during the Apollo Program (1960s), this capability at Johnson Space Center (JSC) included scientists who were responsible for the science planning and training of astronauts for lunar surface activities as well as experts in the analysis and preservation of the precious returned samples. Today, ARES conducts research in basic and applied space and planetary science, and its scientific staff represents a broad diversity of expertise in the physical sciences (physics, chemistry, geology, astronomy), mathematics, and engineering organized into three offices (figure 1): Astromaterials Research (KR), Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation (KT), and Human Exploration Science (KX). Scientists within the Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation Office preserve, protect, document, and distribute samples of the current astromaterials collections. Since the return of the first lunar samples, ARES has been assigned curatorial responsibility for all NASA-held extraterrestrial materials (Apollo lunar samples, Antarctic meteorites - some of which have been confirmed to have originated on the Moon and on Mars - cosmic dust, solar wind samples, comet and interstellar dust particles, and space-exposed hardware). The responsibilities of curation consist not only of the longterm care of the samples, but also the support and planning for future sample collection missions and research and technology to enable new sample types. Curation provides the foundation for research into the samples. The Lunar Sample Facility and other curation clean rooms, the data center, laboratories, and associated instrumentation are unique NASA resources that, together with our staff's fundamental understanding of the entire collection, provide a service to the external research community, which relies on access to the samples. The curation efforts are greatly enhanced by a strong group of planetary scientists who conduct peerreviewed astromaterials research. Astromaterials Research Office scientists conduct peer-reviewed research as Principal or Co-Investigators in planetary science (e. g., cosmochemistry, origins of solar systems, Mars fundamental research, planetary geology and geophysics) and participate as Co-Investigators or Participating Scientists in many of NASA's robotic planetary missions. Since the last report, ARES has achieved several noteworthy milestones, some of which are documented in detail in the sections that follow. Within the Human Exploration Science Office, ARES is a world leader in orbital debris research, modeling and monitoring the debris environment, designing debris shielding, and developing policy to control and mitigate the orbital debris population. ARES has aggressively pursued refinements in knowledge of the debris environment and the hazard it presents to spacecraft. Additionally, the ARES Image Science and Analysis Group has been recognized as world class as a result of the high quality of near-real-time analysis of ascent and on-orbit inspection imagery to identify debris shedding, anomalies, and associated potential damage during Space Shuttle missions. ARES Earth scientists manage and continuously update the database of astronaut photography that is predominantly from Shuttle and ISS missions, but also includes the results of 40 years of human spaceflight. The Crew Earth Observations Web site (http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov/Education/ESS/crew.htm) continues to receive several million hits per month. ARES scientists are also influencing decisions in the development of the next generation of human and robotic spacecraft and missions through laboratory tests on the optical qualities of materials for windows, micrometeoroid/orbital debris shielding technology, and analog activities to assess surface science operations. ARES serves as host to numerous students and visiting scientists as part of the services provided to the research community and conducts a robust education and outreach program. ARES scientists are recognized nationally and internationally by virtue of their success in publishing in peer-reviewed journals and winning competitive research proposals. ARES scientists have won every major award presented by the Meteoritical Society, including the Leonard Medal, the most prestigious award in planetary science and cosmochemistry; the Barringer Medal, recognizing outstanding work in the field of impact cratering; the Nier Prize for outstanding research by a young scientist; and several recipients of the Nininger Meteorite Award. One of our scientists received the Department of Defense (DoD) Joint Meritorious Civilian Service Award (the highest civilian honor given by the DoD). ARES has established numerous partnerships with other NASA Centers, universities, and national laboratories. ARES scientists serve as journal editors, members of advisory panels and review committees, and society officers, and several scientists have been elected as Fellows in their professional societies. This biennial report summarizes a subset of the accomplishments made by each of the ARES offices and highlights participation in ongoing human and robotic missions, development of new missions, and planning for future human and robotic exploration of the solar system beyond low Earth orbit.

Stansbery, Eileen↗

A review of the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO, and the atmosphere relationship

The papers published by Labitzke (1987) and by Labitzke and Van Loon (1988) indicated that the separation of Winter stratospheric data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (Q.B.O.) led to a largely improved relationship with the 11 year solar cycle. Since then, this possible relationship has been studied and extended from the surface to the lower thermosphere and its extension to other seasons is in progress. An opportunity is provided to review the state of the problem and to attempt to give a general view of the experimentally observed responses of the atmosphere to solar activity, when considering the phases of the Q.B.O. After a brief recall of the relationship discovered in the winter stratosphere, its extension downwards, upwards and to the other seasons are successively reviewed. The existing models are not adequate right now to represent the solar influence as they only take into account the change in UV flux, but before being able to use the large scale dynamics in a coupled radiative photochemical model, one needs to understand the mechanism able to explain the forcing from the lower atmosphere or the surface which could be induced by a change in solar activity.

Chanin, M. L.↗

Quasi-biennial variations in zonal mean total columnar ozone derived from 7 years of BUV data

A study is conducted of the quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) variations in zonal mean total columnar ozone, taking into account seven years of Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measurements. The data analysis technique employed is briefly discussed, and theoretical results reported by Reed (1964) are reviewed. The BUV results are compared with the theoretical expectations and Dobson-derived results. In the tropics, the results are found to be in agreement with the theoretical study of Reed. This agreement suggests that the principal effect is through quasi-biennial variations in Hadley cell strength. Favorable comparisons are found between the BUV results and the results based on Dobson data.

Tolson, R. H.↗

Projected Impact of Compositional Verification on Current and Future Aviation Safety Risk

The projected impact of compositional verification research conducted by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies on aviation safety risk was assessed. Software and compositional verification was described. Traditional verification techniques have two major problems: testing at the prototype stage where error discovery can be quite costly and the inability to test for all potential interactions leaving some errors undetected until used by the end user. Increasingly complex and nondeterministic aviation systems are becoming too large for these tools to check and verify. Compositional verification is a "divide and conquer" solution to addressing increasingly larger and more complex systems. A review of compositional verification research being conducted by academia, industry, and Government agencies is provided. Forty-four aviation safety risks in the Biennial NextGen Safety Issues Survey were identified that could be impacted by compositional verification and grouped into five categories: automation design; system complexity; software, flight control, or equipment failure or malfunction; new technology or operations; and verification and validation. One capability, 1 research action, 5 operational improvements, and 13 enablers within the Federal Aviation Administration Joint Planning and Development Office Integrated Work Plan that could be addressed by compositional verification were identified.

Reveley, Mary S.↗

Quasi-biennial Oscillations (QBO) as seen in GPS/CHAMP Tropospheric and Ionospheric Data

A viewgraph presentation on Quasi-biennial Oscillations (QBO) from Global Positioning System/Challenging Mini-Satellite Payload (GPS/CHAMP) tropospheric and ionsopheric data is shown. The topics include: 1) A brief review of QBO; 2) Characteristics of small-scale oscillations in GPS/CHAMP 50-Hz raw measurements; 3) Variations of lower atmospheric variances; and 4) Variations of E-region variances.

gravity waves↗

Stratospheric Water Vapor Observations From the International Space Station By the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (Sage III/ISS)

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III has routinely observed the upper atmosphere from the International Space Station (SAGE III/ISS) since June 2017. An important greenhouse gas and molecule affecting chemistry cycles, water vapor is among the vertical profiles of trace gases measured by SAGE III/ISS. This makes SAGE III/ISS the youngest of the current fleet of space-based instruments capable of measuring the vertical distribution of stratospheric water vapor (SWV). The SWV record is mature, a candidate for multi-instrument datasets, e.g. Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) dataset, and shows promise within the GEOS Constituent Data Assimilation System. This presentation reviews the variations in SWV observed by SAGE III/ISS over the past half-decade. Variations highlighted include phase changes of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO), seasonal and monsoonal moisture patterns, and terrestrial events such as the recent January 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption that perturbed the SWV in spectacular fashion.

stratospheric water vapor↗

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Saunois, Marielle↗