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An interpretable machine learning framework to understand bikeshare demand before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City

In recent years, bikesharing systems have become increasingly popular as affordable and sustainable micromobility solutions. Advanced mathematical models such as machine learning are required to generate good forecasts for bikeshare demand. Here, this study proposes a machine learning modeling framework to estimate hourly demand in a large-scale bikesharing system. Two Extreme Gradient Boosting models were developed: one using data from before the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2019 to February 2020) and the other using data from during the pandemic (March 2020 to February 2021). Furthermore, a model interpretation framework based on SHapley Additive exPlanations was implemented. Based on the relative importance of the explanatory variables considered in this study, share of female users and hour of day were the two most important explanatory variables in both models. However, the month variable had higher importance in the pandemic model than in the pre-pandemic model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Shared and Ownership Mobility Technologies in the US: Data Availability and Usage Trends

This report supports the vision for a more sustainable transportation future by summarizing and analyzing the latest data on new mobility technologies, including ridesharing, shared and privately owned bikes, e-bikes, and scooters that have emerged over the past two decades. Having access to accurate and current data that is representative of new mobility systems and individual usage of these systems across different parts of the country is critical for researchers, city and regional planning professionals, and current and potential industry technology developers to better understand and forecast usage trends both nationwide as well as across different existing and potential future markets across the country. Building on the previous study published in 2022, this report incorporates the latest available market and usage data on new mobility technologies and compares usage by Chicago and New York City demographic characteristics. Moreover, this report includes recent developments and insights on privately owned micromobility technologies. Our analysis found that more downtown areas in Chicago show high per capita usage for all three modes than in the previous study, likely due to the full launch of shared e-scooter systems citywide in 2022. Notably, the majority of high shared mobility usage is concentrated in high-income, densely populated downtown areas in Chicago, which also have good public transit access. In contrast, TNC and bikeshare usage hotspots in central Manhattan are more widely distributed, though also appear to be shaped by the geography of the public transit system. Analysis of privately owned micromobility shows that the greatest energy savings occurred when e-bikes replaced single-occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips (i.e., gasoline-powered cars driven alone). Based on the literature review and analysis results, we also make recommendations for supporting the development of both shared and privately owned micromobility programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Micromobility Integrated Transit and Infrastructure for Efficiency (MITIE)

Nearly omnipresent in many cities of all sizes across the United States, micromobility vehicles-e-scooters, manual bicycles, e-bicycles, and larger seated electric scooters-are notably missing from SMART Mobility research. This project aims to expand the spectrum of modes currently being researched within SMART Mobility by exploring micromobility as an important tool toward meeting energy-efficient mobility goals. It expands on findings from SMART Mobility 1.0 that revealed preferences to reduce transportation-related expenses through use of a network of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) and other shared mobility options, and builds on findings from a 2019 Vehicle Technology Analysis Program (VTAP) funded micromobility project conducted by our team. We will explore multiple facets of micromobility, including behavior and decision-making, the integration of micromobility within transportation infrastructure, energy estimates, and operations. Guiding research questions include: 1) what are the potential energy savings from low, medium, and high market penetration of micromobility (in passenger, multimodal, and freight domains)? 2) which scenarios for micromobility use and related enablement of increased public transit use should be modeled/considered in the SMART 2.0 Workflow? 3) to what degree can micromobility supplement/complement transit system operations? 4) what are people's preferences towards micromobility? How do preferences vary across various sociodemographic segments? How can this knowledge inform operations? 5) what are optimal strategies to attain high user adoption and shift users toward more energy-efficient mode choices in terms of micromobility operation? How do these strategies affect energy savings, person-miles traveled, lifecycle energy use, and adoption rates? These questions will be addressed through applied research in five project emphasis areas: 1) energy estimates of micromobility for Workflow scenarios: Expand and refine previous micromobility work to augment the Workflow approaches to modeling urban travel; 2) multimodal connection with transit: Utilizing Mobility-Energy Productivity (MEP) tools to evaluate multimodal travel patterns enabled by micromobility, including assessing how to reduce barriers of inequity of access to mobility options and destinations; 3) mode choice, induced demand, and infrastructure: Understanding the mode shift induced through micromobility to inform energy impact analysis; 4) energy optimization of micromobility operations: Identification of micromobility operations parameters and development of operations scenarios to better understand present-day micromobility operations for integration into the Workflow, in partnership with BEAM and POLARIS modeling teams; 5) micro-freight: Characterize the current state of micro-freight activities, including energy effects and geospatial analyses, to inform Workflow.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗