Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “binary uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

A Lagrangian dual method for two-stage robust optimization with binary uncertainties

This report presents a new exact method to calculate worst-case parameter realizations in two-stage robust optimization problems with categorical or binary-valued uncertain data. Traditional exact algorithms for these problems, notably Benders decomposition and column-and-constraint generation, compute worst-case parameter realizations by solving mixed-integer bilinear optimization subproblems. However, their numerical solution can be computationally expensive not only due to their resulting large size after reformulating the bilinear terms, but also because decision-independent bounds on their variables are typically unknown. We propose an alternative Lagrangian dual method that circumvents these difficulties and is readily integrated in either algorithm. We specialize the method to problems where the binary parameters switch on or off constraints as these are commonly encountered in applications, and discuss extensions to problems that lack relatively complete recourse and to those with integer recourse. Numerical experiments provide evidence of significant computational improvements over existing methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Exploring Explicit Uncertainty for Binary Analysis (EUBA)

Reverse engineering (RE) analysts struggle to address critical questions about the safety of binary code accurately and promptly, and their supporting program analysis tools are simply wrong sometimes. The analysis tools have to approximate in order to provide any information at all, but this means that they introduce uncertainty into their results. And those uncertainties chain from analysis to analysis. We hypothesize that exposing sources, impacts, and control of uncertainty to human binary analysts will allow the analysts to approach their hardest problems with high-powered analytic techniques that they know when to trust. Combining expertise in binary analysis algorithms, human cognition, uncertainty quantification, verification and validation, and visualization, we pursue research that should benefit binary software analysis efforts across the board. We find a strong analogy between RE and exploratory data analysis (EDA); we begin to characterize sources and types of uncertainty found in practice in RE (both in the process and in supporting analyses); we explore a domain-specific focus on uncertainty in pointer analysis, showing that more precise models do help analysts answer small information flow questions faster and more accurately; and we test a general population with domain-general sudoku problems, showing that adding "knobs" to an analysis does not significantly slow down performance. This document describes our explorations in uncertainty in binary analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Quantifying Epistemic Uncertainty in Binary Classification via Accuracy Gain

ABSTRACT Recently, a surge of interest has been given to quantifying epistemic uncertainty (EU), the reducible portion of uncertainty due to lack of data. We propose a novel EU estimator in the binary classification setting, as the posterior expected value of the empirical gain in accuracy between the current prediction and the optimal prediction. In order to validate the performance of our EU estimator, we introduce an experimental procedure where we take an existing dataset, remove a set of points, and compare the estimated EU with the observed change in accuracy. Through real and simulated data experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed EU estimator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Binary pseudo-random array (BPRA) for inspection and calibration for cylindrical wavefront interferometry

High-accuracy metrology is vitally important in manufacturing ultra-high-quality free-form mirrors designed to manipulate X-ray light with nanometer-scale wavelengths. However, surface topography measurements are instrument dependent, and without the knowledge of how the instrument performs under the practical usage conditions, the measured data contain some degree of uncertainty. Binary Pseudo Random Array (BPRA) “white noise” artifact are effective and useful for characterizing the Instrument Transfer Function (ITF) of surface topography metrology tools and wavefront measurement instrument. BPRA artifact contains features with all spatial frequencies in the instrument bandpass with equal weight. As a result, power spectral density of the patterns has a deterministic white-noise-like character that allows direct determination of the ITF with uniform sensitivity over the entire spatial frequency range. The application examples include electron microscopes, x-ray microscopes, interferometric microscopes, and large field-of-view Fizeau Interferometers. Furthermore, we will introduce the application of BPRA method to characterizing the ITF of Cylindrical Wavefront Interferometry (CWI), by developing the BPRA artifact which matches the radius of curvature of the cylindrical wavefront. The data acquisition and analysis procedures for different applications of the ITF calibration technique developed are also discussed.

Munechika, K↗

Classification Using Support Vector Machines with Uncertainty Quantification

Binary classification using machine learning is needed to address engineering problems such as identifying passing/failing parts based on measured features from aging hardware. In these classifications, providing the uncertainty of each prediction is essential to support engineering decision making. One popular classifier is the support vector machine (SVM). There are many variations, with the simplest being a linear division between two classes with a hyperplane. Kernel methods can be implement

Taylor, Sofia Nitsche↗

Exploring dark forces with multimessenger studies of extreme mass ratio inspirals

Abstract The exploration of dark sector interactions via gravitational waves (GWs) from binary inspirals has been a subject of recent interest. We study dark forces using extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs), pointing out two issues of interest. Firstly, the innermost stable circular orbit (ISCO) of the EMRI, which sets the characteristic length scale of the system and hence the dark force range to which it exhibits enhanced sensitivity, probes force mediator masses that complement those studied with supermassive black hole (SMBH) or neutron star binaries. The LISA mission (the proposedμAres detector) will probe mediators with massesm V ∼ 10 -16 eV (m V ∼ 10 -18 eV), corresponding to ISCOs of 10 6 M ⊙ (10 8 M ⊙ ) central SMBHs. Secondly, while the sensitivity to dark couplings is typically limited by the uncertainty in the binary component masses, independent mass measurements of the central SMBH through reverberation mapping campaigns or the motion of dynamical tracers enable one to break this degeneracy. Our results therefore highlight the necessity for coordinated studies, loosely referred to as “multimessenger”, between futureμHz- mHz GW observatories and ongoing and forthcoming SMBH mass measurement campaigns, including OzDES-RM, SDSS-RM, and SDSS-V Black Hole Mapper.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Observing Mergers of Nonspinning Black Hole Binaries with LISA

Recent advances in the field of numerical relativity now make it possible to calculate the final, most powerful merger phase of binary black hole coalescence. We present the application of nonspinning numerical relativity waveforms to the search for and precision measurement of black hole binary coalescences using LISA. In particular, we focus on the advances made in moving beyond the equal mass, nonspinning case into other regions of parameter space, focusing on the case of nonspinning holes with ever-increasing mass ratios. We analyze the available unequal mass merger waveforms from numerical relativity, and compare them to two models, both of which use an effective one body treatment of the inspiral, but which use fundamentally different approaches to the treatment of the merger-ringdown. We confirm the expected mass ratio scaling of the merger, and investigate the changes in waveform behavior and their observational impact with changing mass ratio. Finally, we investigate the potential contribution from the merger portion of the waveform to measurement uncertainties of the binary's parameters for the unequal mass case.

McWilliams S.↗

Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources

Here, with the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to ± 250 m (2% at 90% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Quantifying uncertainties in α -nucleus reaction dynamics informed from first principles

The ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell model is a microscopic many-body method which naturally describes challenging collective and clustering features of atomic nuclei. Wave functions and observables computed with realistic nucleon-nucleon forces in this framework are tied to first principles, and are hence well-suited for rigorous uncertainty quantification. We discuss α-deuteron and α- 12 C cluster potentials informed by symmetry-adapted calculations, and propagate uncertainties in the effective binary cluster method as well as those in the nuclear interaction to reaction observables, namely scattering phase shifts, cross sections, partial widths and resonance energies. Here, we find that the overall uncertainties are dominated by those originating in the underlying nuclear force, speaking to the need for tighter constraints on realistic nucleon-nucleon interactions.

Ab initio↗

Localization of Binary Black Hole Mergers with Known Inclination

The localization of stellar-mass binary black hole mergers using gravitational waves is critical in understanding the properties of the binaries' host galaxies, observing possible electromagnetic emission from the mergers, or using them as a cosmological distance ladder. The precision of this localization can be substantially increased with prior astrophysical information about the binary system. In particular, constraining the inclination of the binary can reduce the distance uncertainty of the source. Here we present the first realistic set of localizations for binary black hole mergers, including different prior constraints on the binaries' inclinations. We find that prior information on the inclination can reduce the localization volume by a factor of 3. We discuss two astrophysical scenarios of interest: (i) follow-up searches for beamed electromagnetic/neutrino counterparts and (ii) mergers in the accretion disks of active galactic nuclei.

Corley, K. Rainer↗

Eclipse timings of the low-mass X-ray binary EXO 0748-676: Statistical arguments against orbital period changes

EXO 0748-676, an eclipsing low-mass X-ray binary, is one of only about four or five low-mass X-ray binaries for which orbital period evolution has been reported. We observed a single eclipse egress with ROSAT . The time of this egress is consistent with the apparent increase in P(sub orb) previously reported on the basis of EXOSAT and Ginga observations. Standard analysis, in which O-C (observed minus calculated) timing residuals are examined for deviations from a constant period, implicitly assume that the only uncertainty in each residual is measurement error and that these errors are independent. We argue that the variable eclipse durations and profiles observed in EXO 0748-676 imply that there is an additional source of uncertainty in timing measurements, that this uncertainty is intrinsic to the binary system, and that it is correlated from observation to observation with a variance which increases as a function of the number of binary cycles between observations. This intrinsic variability gives rise to spurious trends in O-C residuals which are misinterpreted as changes in the orbital period. We describe several statistics tests which can be used to test for the presence of intrinsic variability. We apply those statistical tests which are suitable to the EXO 0748-676 observations. The apparent changes in the orbital period of EXO 0748-676 can be completely accounted for by intrinsic variability with an rms variability of approximately 0.35 s per orbital cycle. The variability appears to be correlated from cycle-to-cycle on timescales of less than 1 yr. We suggest that the intrinsic variability is related to slow changes in either the source's X-ray luminosity or the structure of the companion star's atmosphere. We note that several other X-ray binaries and cataclysmic variables have previously reported orbital period changes which may also be due to intrinsic variability rather than orbital period evolution.

Hertz, Paul↗

Runaway Eccentricity Growth: A Pathway for Binary Black Hole Mergers in AGN Disks

Binary black holes (BBHs) embedded within the accretion disks that fuel active galactic nuclei (AGN) are promising progenitors for the source of gravitational wave (GW) events detected by LIGO/VIRGO. Several recent studies have shown that when these binaries form, they are likely to be highly eccentric and retrograde. However, many uncertainties remain concerning the orbital evolution of these binaries as they either inspiral toward merger or disassociate. Previous hydrodynamical simulations exploring their orbital evolution have been predominantly two-dimensional or have been restricted to binaries on nearly circular orbits. We present the first high-resolution, three-dimensional local shearing-box simulations of both prograde and retrograde eccentric BBHs embedded in AGN disks. We find that retrograde binaries shrink several times faster than their prograde counterparts and exhibit significant orbital eccentricity growth, the rate of which monotonically increases with binary eccentricity. Our results suggest that retrograde binaries may experience runaway orbital eccentricity growth, which may bring them close enough together at pericenter for GW emission to drive them to coalescence. Although their eccentricity is damped, prograde binaries shrink much faster than their orbital eccentricity decays, suggesting they should remain modestly eccentric as they contract toward merger. Finally, binary precession driven by the AGN disk may dominate over precession induced by the supermassive black hole depending on the binary accretion rate and its location in the AGN disk, which can subdue the evection resonance and von Ziepel–Lidov–Kozai cycles.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Unraveling cosmological anisotropies within stochastic gravitational wave backgrounds

Identifying the anisotropies in a cosmologically sourced stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) would be of significance in shedding light on the nature of primordial inhomogeneities. For example, if SGWB carries isocurvature fluctuations, it would provide evidence for a multi-field inflationary origin of these inhomogeneities. However, this is challenging in practice due to finite detector sensitivity and also the presence of the astrophysical foregrounds that can compete with the cosmological signal. In this work, we explore the prospects for measuring cosmological SGWB anisotropies in the presence of an astrophysical counterpart and detector noise. To illustrate the main idea, we perform a Fisher analysis using a well-motivated cosmological SGWB template corresponding to a first order phase transition, and an astrophysical SGWB template corresponding to extra-galactic binary mergers, and compute the uncertainty with which various parameters characterizing the isotropic and anisotropic components can be extracted. Finally, we also discuss some subtleties and caveats involving shot noise in the astrophysical foreground. Overall, we show that upcoming experiments, e.g., LISA, Taiji, Einstein Telescope, Cosmic Explorer, and BBO, can all be effective in discovering plausible anisotropic cosmological SGWBs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Challenges Ahead for Multimessenger Analyses of Gravitational Waves and Kilonova: A Case Study on GW190425

In recent years, there have been significant advances in multimessenger astronomy due to the discovery of the first, and so far only confirmed, gravitational wave event with a simultaneous electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, as well as improvements in numerical simulations, gravitational wave (GW) detectors, and transient astronomy. This has led to the exciting possibility of performing joint analyses of the GW and EM data, providing additional constraints on fundamental properties of the binary progenitor and merger remnant. Here, in this work, we present a new Bayesian framework that allows inference of these properties, while taking into account the systematic modeling uncertainties that arise when mapping from GW binary progenitor properties to photometric light curves. We extend the relative binning method presented in Zackay et al. to include extrinsic GW parameters for fast analysis of the GW signal. The focus of our EM framework is on light curves arising from r-process nucleosynthesis in the ejected material during and after merger, the so-called kilonova, and particularly on black hole–neutron star systems. As a case study, we examine the recent detection of GW190425, where the primary object is consistent with being either a black hole or a neutron star. We show quantitatively how improved mapping between binary progenitor and outflow properties, and/or an increase in EM data quantity and quality are required in order to break degeneracies in the fundamental source parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improving White Dwarfs as Chronometers with Gaia Parallaxes and Spectroscopic Metallicities

White dwarfs (WDs) offer unrealized potential in solving two problems in astrophysics: stellar age accuracy and precision. WD cooling ages can be inferred from surface temperatures and radii, which can be constrained with precision by high-quality photometry and parallaxes. Accurate and precise Gaia parallaxes along with photometric surveys provide information to derive cooling and total ages for vast numbers of WDs. Here we analyze 1372 WDs found in wide binaries with main-sequence (MS) companions and report on the cooling and total age precision attainable in these WD+MS systems. The total age of a WD can be further constrained if its original metallicity is known because the MS lifetime depends on metallicity at fixed mass, yet metallicity is unavailable via spectroscopy of the WD. We show that incorporating spectroscopic metallicity constraints from 38 wide binary MS companions substantially decreases internal uncertainties in WD total ages compared to a uniform constraint. Averaged over the 38 stars in our sample, the total (internal) age uncertainty improves from 21.04% to 16.77% when incorporating the spectroscopic constraint. Higher mass WDs yield better total age precision; for eight WDs with zero-age MS masses ≥2.0 M ⊙ , the mean uncertainty in total ages improves from 8.61% to 4.54% when incorporating spectroscopic metallicities. We find that it is often possible to achieve 5% total age precision for WDs with progenitor masses above 2.0 M ⊙ if parallaxes with ≤1% precision and Pan-STARRS g, r, and i photometry with ≤0.01 mag precision are available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A search for stars passing close to the sun

Hipparcos proper motion and parallax data are combined for nearby stars with ground-based radial velocity measurements in order to identify stars which may have passed, or will pass, close enough to the sun to perturb the Oort cloud. Close stellar encounters could deflect large numbers of comets into the inner solar system, with possible serious consequences for impact hazards on the earth. Only one star, Gliese 710 is found with a predicted closest approach of less than 0.5 pc, although several stars come within 1 pc during a 8.5 M year interval. In most cases, the uncertainty in closest approach distance is dominated by uncertainties in the barycenter motion of binary systems. A program to obtain new radial velocities for stars in the sample with no previously published values is underway.

Garcia-Sanchez, J.↗

Nonparametric statistical modeling of binary star separations

We develop a comprehensive statistical model for the distribution of observed separations in binary star systems, in terms of distributions of orbital elements, projection effects, and distances to systems. We use this model to derive several diagnostics for estimating the completeness of imaging searches for stellar companions, and the underlying stellar multiplicities. In application to recent imaging searches for low-luminosity companions to nearby M dwarf stars, and for companions to young stars in nearby star-forming regions, our analyses reveal substantial uncertainty in estimates of stellar multiplicity. For binary stars with late-type dwarf companions, semimajor axes appear to be distributed approximately as a(exp -1) for values ranging from about one to several thousand astronomical units. About one-quarter of the companions to field F and G dwarf stars have semimajor axes less than 1 AU, and about 15% lie beyond 1000 AU. The geometric efficiency (fraction of companions imaged onto the detector) of imaging searches is nearly independent of distances to program stars and orbital eccentricities, and varies only slowly with detector spatial limitations.

Heacox, William D.↗

Observations of spectroscopic binaries at ultraviolet and red wavelengths

The use of IUE-satellite and ground-based-Reticon observations for the study of spectroscopic binaries is examined, and sample data from the Reticon are presented. IUE radial-velocity determinations with uncertainties as low as 2-5 km/sec should be possible for binaries with early-type secondary components, using UV spectral lines where contamination by the later-type primary is reduced. The Reticon solid-state photodiode-array detector has been used at the coudefocus of the 2.7-m telescope at McDonald Observatory for observation of complex multiple systems in the 400-950-nm range with a quantum efficiency of 40-80 percent and resolution of 20-30 pm at 440 pm/mm. The fundamental parameters of 15 systems observed with this apparatus are listed in a table, and two sample spectra are shown.

Fekel, F. C., Jr.↗