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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1994

Lessons learned in deploying software estimation technology and tools

Developing a software product involves estimating various project parameters. This is typically done in the planning stages of the project when there is much uncertainty and very little information. Coming up with accurate estimates of effort, cost, schedule, and reliability is a critical problem faced by all software project managers. The use of estimation models and commercially available tools in conjunction with the best bottom-up estimates of software-development experts enhances the ability of a product development group to derive reasonable estimates of important project parameters. This paper describes the experience of the IBM Software Solutions (SWS) Toronto Laboratory in selecting software estimation models and tools and deploying their use to the laboratory's product development groups. It introduces the SLIM and COSTAR products, the software estimation tools selected for deployment to the product areas, and discusses the rationale for their selection. The paper also describes the mechanisms used for technology injection and tool deployment, and concludes with a discussion of important lessons learned in the technology and tool insertion process.

Panlilio-Yap, Nikki↗
NASA NTRS2003

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 8, No. 2

The mission of the Journal of Air Transportation (JAT) is to provide the global community immediate key resource information in all areas of air transportation. This journal contains articles on the following:Fuel Consumption Modeling of a Transport Category Aircraft: A FlightOperationsQualityAssurance (F0QA) Analysis;Demand for Air Travel in the United States: Bottom-Up Econometric Estimation and Implications for Forecasts by Origin and Destination Pairs;Blind Flying on the Beam: Aeronautical Communication, Navigation and Surveillance: Its Origins and the Politics of Technology: Part I1 Political Oversight and Promotion;Blind Flying on the Beam: Aeronautical Communication, Navigation and Surveillance: Its Origins and the Politics of Technology: Part 111: Emerging Technologies;Ethics Education in University Aviation Management Programs in the US: Part Two B-Statistical Analysis of Current Practice;Integrating Human Factors into the Human-computer Interface: and How Best to Display Meteorological Information for Critical Aviation Decision-making and Performance.

Bowen, Brent↗
NASA NTRS2007

Progress in Modeling Global Atmospheric CO2 Fluxes and Transport: Results from Simulations with Diurnal Fluxes

Progress in better determining CO2 sources and sinks will almost certainly rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. Use of advanced data requires improved modeling and analysis capability. Under NASA Carbon Cycle Science support we seek to develop and integrate improved formulations for 1) atmospheric transport, 2) terrestrial uptake and release, 3) biomass and 4) fossil fuel burning, and 5) observational data analysis including inverse calculations. The transport modeling is based on meteorological data assimilation analysis from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office. Use of assimilated met data enables model comparison to CO2 and other observations across a wide range of scales of variability. In this presentation we focus on the short end of the temporal variability spectrum: hourly to synoptic to seasonal. Using CO2 fluxes at varying temporal resolution from the SIB 2 and CASA biosphere models, we examine the model's ability to simulate CO2 variability in comparison to observations at different times, locations, and altitudes. We find that the model can resolve much of the variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The influence of key process representations is inferred. The high degree of fidelity in these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of realtime, highly resolved observations into a multiscale carbon cycle analysis system that will begin to bridge the gap between top-down and bottom-up flux estimation, which is a primary focus of NACP.

Collatz, G. James↗
NASA NTRS2010

Recent Large Reduction in Sulfur Dioxide Emissions from Chinese Power Plants Observed by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard NASA's Aura satellite observed substantial increases in total column SO2 and tropospheric column NO2 from 2005 to 2007, over several areas in northern China where large coal-fired power plants were built during this period. The OMI-observed SO2/NO2 ratio is consistent with the SO2/ NO2, emissions estimated from a bottom-up approach. In 2008 over the same areas, OMI detected little change in NO2, suggesting steady electricity output from the power plants. However, dramatic reductions of S0 2 emissions were observed by OMI at the same time. These reductions confirm the effectiveness of the flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) devices in reducing S02 emissions, which likely became operational between 2007 and 2008. This study further demonstrates that the satellite sensors can monitor and characterize anthropogenic emissions from large point sources.

Li, Can↗
NASA NTRS2010

Remote Sensing of Spatial Distributions of Greenhouse Gases in the Los Angeles Basin

The Los Angeles air basin is a significant anthropogenic source of greenhouse gasses and pollutants including CO2, CH4, N2O, and CO, contributing significantly to regional and global climate change. Recent legislation in California, the California Global Warning Solutions Act (AB32), established a statewide cap for greenhouse gas emissions for 2020 based on 1990 emissions. Verifying the effectiveness of regional greenhouse gas emissions controls requires high-precision, regional-scale measurement methods combined with models that capture the principal anthropogenic and biogenic sources and sinks. We present a novel approach for monitoring the spatial distribution of greenhouse gases in the Los Angeles basin using high resolution remote sensing spectroscopy. We participated in the CalNex 2010 campaign to provide greenhouse gas distributions for comparison between top-down and bottom-up emission estimates.

atmospheric remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Life-Cycle Cost Estimating Methodology for NASA-Developed Air Traffic Control Decision Support Tools

This paper describes the development of a life-cycle cost (LCC) estimating methodology for air traffic control Decision Support Tools (DSTs) under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), using a combination of parametric, analogy, and expert opinion methods. There is no one standard methodology and technique that is used by NASA or by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for LCC estimation of prospective Decision Support Tools. Some of the frequently used methodologies include bottom-up, analogy, top-down, parametric, expert judgement, and Parkinson's Law. The developed LCC estimating methodology can be visualized as a three-dimensional matrix where the three axes represent coverage, estimation, and timing. This paper focuses on the three characteristics of this methodology that correspond to the three axes.

Wang, Jianzhong Jay↗
NASA NTRS1972

Solid rocket motor cost model

A systematic and standardized procedure for estimating life cycle costs of solid rocket motor booster configurations. The model consists of clearly defined cost categories and appropriate cost equations in which cost is related to program and hardware parameters. Cost estimating relationships are generally based on analogous experience. In this model the experience drawn on is from estimates prepared by the study contractors. Contractors' estimates are derived by means of engineering estimates for some predetermined level of detail of the SRM hardware and program functions of the system life cycle. This method is frequently referred to as bottom-up. A parametric cost analysis is a useful technique when rapid estimates are required. This is particularly true during the planning stages of a system when hardware designs and program definition are conceptual and constantly changing as the selection process, which includes cost comparisons or trade-offs, is performed. The use of cost estimating relationships also facilitates the performance of cost sensitivity studies in which relative and comparable cost comparisons are significant.

Harney, A. G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Performance and state-space analyses of systems using Petri nets

The goal of any modeling methodology is to develop a mathematical description of a system that is accurate in its representation and also permits analysis of structural and/or performance properties. Inherently, trade-offs exist between the level detail in the model and the ease with which analysis can be performed. Petri nets (PN's), a highly graphical modeling methodology for Discrete Event Dynamic Systems, permit representation of shared resources, finite capacities, conflict, synchronization, concurrency, and timing between state changes. By restricting the state transition time delays to the family of exponential density functions, Markov chain analysis of performance problems is possible. One major drawback of PN's is the tendency for the state-space to grow rapidly (exponential complexity) compared to increases in the PN constructs. It is the state space, or the Markov chain obtained from it, that is needed in the solution of many problems. The theory of state-space size estimation for PN's is introduced. The problem of state-space size estimation is defined, its complexities are examined, and estimation algorithms are developed. Both top-down and bottom-up approaches are pursued, and the advantages and disadvantages of each are described. Additionally, the author's research in non-exponential transition modeling for PN's is discussed. An algorithm for approximating non-exponential transitions is developed. Since only basic PN constructs are used in the approximation, theory already developed for PN's remains applicable. Comparison to results from entropy theory show the transition performance is close to the theoretic optimum. Inclusion of non-exponential transition approximations improves performance results at the expense of increased state-space size. The state-space size estimation theory provides insight and algorithms for evaluating this trade-off.

Watson, James Francis, III↗
NASA NTRS2006

Evaluation of Space-Based Constraints on Global Nitrogen Oxide Emissions with Regional Aircraft Measurements over and Downwind of Eastern North America

We retrieve tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) columns for May 2004 to April 2005 from the SCIAMACHY satellite instrument to derive top-down emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2) via inverse modeling with a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). Simulated NO 2 vertical profiles used in the retrieval are evaluated with airborne measurements over and downwind of North America (ICARTT); a northern midlatitude lightning source of 1.6 Tg N/yr minimizes bias in the retrieval. Retrieved NO2 columns are validated (r2 = 0.60, slope = 0.82) with coincident airborne in situ measurements. The top-down emissions are combined with a priori information from a bottom-up emission inventory with error weighting to achieve an improved a posteriori estimate of the global distribution of surface NOx emissions. Our a posteriori NOx emission inventory for land surface NOx emissions (46.1 Tg N/yr) is 22% larger than the GEIA-based a priori bottom-up inventory for 1998, a difference that reflects rising anthropogenic emissions, especially from East Asia A posteriori NOx emissions for East Asia (9.8 Tg N/yr) exceed those from other continents. The a posteriori inventory improves the GEOS-Chem simulation of NOx, peroxyacetylnitrate, and nitric acid with respect to airborne in situ measurements over and downwind of New York City. The a posteriori is 7% larger than the EDGAR 3.2FT2000 global inventory, 3% larger than the NEI99 inventory for the United States, and 68% larger than a regional inventory for 2000 for eastern Asia. SCIAMACHY NO2 columns over the North Atlantic show a weak plume from lightning NO(x).

Martin, Randall V.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Flux estimation of the FIFE planetary boundary layer (PBL) with 10.6 micron Doppler lidar

A method is devised for calculating wind, momentum, and other flux parameters that characterize the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and thereby facilitate the calibration of spaceborne vs. in situ flux estimates. Single Doppler lidar data are used to estimate the variance of the mean wind and the covariance related to the vertically pointing fluxes of horizontal momentum. The skewness of the vertical velocity and the range of kinetic energy dissipation are also estimated, and the surface heat flux is determined by means of a statistical Navier-Stokes equation. The conclusion shows that the PBL structure combines both 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' processes suggesting that the relevant parameters for the atmospheric boundary layer be revised. The conclusions are of significant interest to the modeling techniques used in General Circulation Models as well as to flux estimation.

Gal-Chen, Tzvi↗
NASA NTRS1987

Battelle estimate of launch service demand

The annual non-NASA non-DOD demand for launches by non-Soviet services is estimated for the period 1986-2001 on the basis of currently available data. The assumptions and methods employed in generating the bottom-up Outside Users Payload Model, the data sources, and the use of equivalent Space Shuttle flights as a payload measure are explained in detail. The numerical results are presented in extensive tables and graphs and briefly characterized.

Conlon, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Global Partitioning of NOx Sources Using Satellite Observations: Relative Roles of Fossil Fuel Combustion, Biomass Burning and Soil Emissions

This document contains the following abstract for the paper "Global partitioning of NOx sources using satellite observations: Relative roles of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning and soil emissions." Satellite observations have been used to provide important new information about emissions of nitrogen oxides. Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are significant in atmospheric chemistry, having a role in ozone air pollution, acid deposition and climate change. We know that human activities have led to a three- to six-fold increase in NOx emissions since pre-industrial times, and that there are three main surface sources of NOx: fuel combustion, large-scale fires, and microbial soil processes. How each of these sources contributes to the total NOx emissions is subject to some doubt, however. The problem is that current NOx emission inventories rely on bottom-up approaches, compiling large quantities of statistical information from diverse sources such as fuel and land use, agricultural data, and estimates of burned areas. This results in inherently large uncertainties. To overcome this, Lyatt Jaegle and colleagues from the University of Washington, USA, used new satellite observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instrument. As the spatial and seasonal distribution of each of the sources of NOx can be clearly mapped from space, the team could provide independent topdown constraints on the individual strengths of NOx sources, and thus help resolve discrepancies in existing inventories. Jaegle's analysis of the satellite observations, presented at the recent Faraday Discussion on "Atmospheric Chemistry", shows that fuel combustion dominates emissions at northern mid-latitudes, while fires are a significant source in the Tropics. Additionally, she discovered a larger than expected role for soil emissions, especially over agricultural regions with heavy fertilizer use. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Jaegle, Lyatt↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Integrated Air Transportation System Evaluation Tool

Throughout U.S. history, our nation has generally enjoyed exceptional economic growth, driven in part by transportation advancements. Looking forward 25 years, when the national highway and skyway systems are saturated, the nation faces new challenges in creating transportation-driven economic growth and wealth. To meet the national requirement for an improved air traffic management system, NASA developed the goal of tripling throughput over the next 20 years, in all weather conditions while maintaining safety. Analysis of the throughput goal has primarily focused on major airline operations, primarily through the hub and spoke system.However, many suggested concepts to increase throughput may operate outside the hub and spoke system. Examples of such concepts include the Small Aircraft Transportation System, civil tiltrotor, and improved rotorcraft. Proper assessment of the potential contribution of these technologies to the domestic air transportation system requires a modeling capability that includes the country's numerous smaller airports, acting as a fundamental component of the National Air space System, and the demand for such concepts and technologies. Under this task for NASA, the Logistics Management Institute developed higher fidelity demand models that capture the interdependence of short-haul air travel with other transportation modes and explicitly consider the costs of commercial air and other transport modes. To accomplish this work, we generated forecasts of the distribution of general aviation based aircraft and GA itinerant operations at each of nearly 3.000 airport based on changes in economic conditions and demographic trends. We also built modules that estimate the demand for travel by different modes, particularly auto, commercial air, and GA. We examined GA demand from two perspectives: top-down and bottom-up, described in detail.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗
NASA NTRS1988

Overview of SDCM - The Spacecraft Design and Cost Model

The Spacecraft Design and Cost Model (SDCM) is a computer-aided design and analysis tool for synthesizing spacecraft configurations, integrating their subsystems, and generating information concerning on-orbit servicing and costs. SDCM uses a bottom-up method in which the cost and performance parameters for subsystem components are first calculated; the model then sums the contributions from individual components in order to obtain an estimate of sizes and costs for each candidate configuration within a selected spacecraft system. An optimum spacraft configuration can then be selected.

Ferebee, Melvin J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

PRIME: A bottom-up approach to probabilistic rule development

PRIME is a system to be used by an intelligent machine to allow it to operate in an abstract but uncertain (or stochastic) environment. It maintains a model of the effects of the machine's actions in the form of a rule base, which is induced from experience. This bottom-up approach to rule development allows the model to adapt to changes in the environment. Each rule consists of a condition under which the rule is active, an action, the effect of the action on the environment, and an estimate of the probability of this effect occurring. The effect probabilities are used to model the uncertainty in the environment, permitting multiple possible effects for a single action under a particular set of conditions. The objective of the intelligent machine is to satisfy user-specified goals with maximum probability of success. PRIME fulfills this requirement in two ways: it continuously updates the rule base with the most recent information, to ensure the validity of the model; and it generates plans which have the maximum probability of achieving the goals, based on the probability estimates in the rule base. PRIME is composed of three main processes: exploration, generalization, and planning. In exploration, the machine executes various randomly chosen actions, observes the effects on the environment, and updates the rule base accordingly. This process is used to develop the rule base in simulation, as well as to supplement the current knowledge during normal operation. Generalization is the procedure used to induce general rules from experience, which is encoded in the form of specific rules. These general rules extend the machine's knowledge to situations which have not been encountered yet, thereby increasing the capability of the machine to plan effectively. Planning is the process of constructing an optimal sequence of actions to satisfy a goal, using the rule base to predict the effects of these actions and to determine the probability of success of the plan. The rule representation and many other data structures were specifically chosen to maximize the efficiency of these processes. A simulated environment was designed to test the performance of PRIME. The results of experimentation were largely negative. The main problem was that the domain coverage of the rules was inadequate for the number of rules stored in the rule base, due to redundancies in general rules and numerous rules covering ineffective actions. It was determined that a more efficient generalization, and some form of goal-directed exploration, are necessary in order to solve most of the current deficiencies in PRIME.

Miller, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Vorticity and Vertical Motions Diagnosed from Satellite Deep-Layer Temperatures

Spatial fields of satellite-measured deep-layer temperatures are examined in the context of quasigeostrophic theory. It is found that midtropospheric geostrophic vorticity and quasigeostrophic vertical motions can be diagnosed from microwave temperature measurements of only two deep layers. The lower- ( 1000-400 hPa) and upper- (400-50 hPa) layer temperatures are estimated from limb-corrected TIROS-N Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) channel 2 and 3 data, spatial fields of which can be used to estimate the midtropospheric thermal wind and geostrophic vorticity fields. Together with Trenberth's simplification of the quasigeostrophic omega equation, these two quantities can be then used to estimate the geostrophic vorticity advection by the thermal wind, which is related to the quasigeostrophic vertical velocity in the midtroposphere. Critical to the technique is the observation that geostrophic vorticity fields calculated from the channel 3 temperature features are very similar to those calculated from traditional, 'bottom-up' integrated height fields from radiosonde data. This suggests a lack of cyclone-scale height features near the top of the channel 3 weighting function, making the channel 3 cyclone-scale 'thickness' features approximately the same as height features near the bottom of the weighting function. Thus, the MSU data provide observational validation of the LID (level of insignificant dynamics) assumption of Hirshberg and Fritsch.

Spencer, Roy W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Eastern Asian Emissions of Anthropogenic Halocarbons Deduced from Aircraft Concentration Data

The Montreal Protocol restricts production of ozone-depleting halocarbons worldwide. Enforcement of the protocol has relied mainly on annual government statistics of production and consumption of these compounds (bottom-up approach). We show here that aircraft observations of ha1ocarbon:CO enhancement ratios on regional to continental scales can be used to infer halocarbon emissions, providing independent verification of the bottom-up approach. We apply this topdown approach to aircraft observations of Asian outflow &om the TRACE-P mission over the western Pacific (March-April 2001) and derive emissions from eastern Asia (China, Japan, and Korea). We derive an eastern Asian carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) source of 21.5 Gg yr(sup -1), several-fold larger than previous estimates and amounting to -30% of the global budget for this gas. Our emission estimate for CFC-11 from eastern Asia is 50% higher than inventories derived from manufacturing records. Our emission estimates for methyl chloroform (CH3CC13) and CFC-12 are in agreement with existing inventories. For halon 1211 we find only a strong local source originating from the Shanghai area. Our emission estimates for the above gases result in a approximately equal to 40% increase in the ozone depletion potential (ODP) of Asian emissions relative to previous estimates, corresponding to a approximately equal to 10% global increase in ODP.

Palmer, Paul I.↗
NASA NTRS1991

System reliability approaches for advanced propulsion system structures

This paper identifies significant issues that pertain to the estimation and use of system reliability in the design of advanced propulsion system structures. Linkages between the reliabilities of individual components and their effect on system design issues such as performance, cost, availability, and certification are examined. The need for system reliability computation to address the continuum nature of propulsion system structures and synergistic progressive damage modes has been highlighted. Available system reliability models are observed to apply only to discrete systems. Therefore a sequential structural reanalysis procedure is formulated to rigorously compute the conditional dependencies between various failure modes. The method is developed in a manner that supports both top-down and bottom-up analyses in system reliability.

Cruse, T. A.↗