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DOE OSTI2023

A new control score concept for building performance assessment

In buildings, performance assessment often focuses on energy use with metrics such as energy use intensity (EUI) used to benchmark performance. However, energy performance of a building is fundamentally determined by the control system that engages the energy-using systems. There are two aspects of control that are of particular importance: (1) the ability to regulate process variables to their setpoints; and (2) whether the setpoints are at the right levels and/or following desired profiles. Most buildings do not reach their energy efficiency potential due to deficiencies in control performance and operators do not have access to metrics that can illuminate these deficiencies. Here this paper addresses this problem by providing novel techniques that combine these two aspects of control performance into a single standardized score on the scale of 0-10. The concept of a standardized control scores enables all systems in a building to be compared on the same scale and also for scores to be rolled up to different levels in the building and system hierarchy for system-wide analysis. The paper presents the theory for the method, describes a prototype tool for displaying scores, and presents results from application to a large building in Minneapolis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Building ControlScore: General Service Administration Office Building Deployment

Improvements to building control systems can lead to energy savings and increased occupant comfort. In an optimized system, process variables such as air temperature will closely follow their desired setpoints and avoid excess energy use. Typically, experts must manually inspect individual control loops to identify poor performance and opportunities for improvement. However, this approach is difficult in modern buildings that have a prohibitively large number of controllers. To address this issue, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) created the ControlScore concept, which takes operating data from the many controllers within a building and generates standardized scores for each loop on a scale of 0 to 10 (a score of 0 indicates poor control, a score of 10 indicates good control). PNNL applied the Building ControlScore application to all available data from a General Services Administration office building within the period of January 1, 2023, to March 9, 2023. The building scored a 4.7 overall, with all 74 of the building’s loops fitting a roughly normal distribution centered around 5. These results indicate that the analyzed systems have below-average performance with room for improvement, especially in the poorly scored systems. Airflow loops tended to have much lower scores than zone temperature loops. The lowest and highest performing systems in the building section were identified, as were all loops with a score less than 1. While the ControlScore identifies loops and systems that aren’t meeting their designated setpoints, it does not indicate the cause of those issues. For example, consider a supply air terminal unit’s airflow loop that received a low score due to it delivering less air than specified by the setpoint. The lower-than-desired airflow could be due to equipment limitations (e.g., the terminal unit or duct serving is too small to accommodate that airflow), malfunctioning equipment (e.g., a stuck damper or bad sensor), or something else entirely. The ControlScore does not diagnose problems it simply identifies the symptoms that can be explored and addressed by building operators.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Building ControlScore: Research Laboratory Building Deployment

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulating energy performance of buildings: a study using eQUEST and Energy Star ® portfolio manager

Commercial buildings consume significant energy in the United States and exhibit high potential for energy use reduction through retrofits. Benchmarking and energy simulation are well established tools in the industry to identify potential improvements and measure performance. Analysis to identify most sensitive retrofit parameters to energy performance can optimize investment and available energy savings. Presented study demonstrates methodology using a static model to determine sensitivity of building design and retrofit parameters with respect to energy performance. Calibrated simulation energy models (eQUEST) of two distribution centers (A, B) are presented. A fractional factorial analysis is conducted on retrofit parameters of efficiency measures targeting the highest energy consumers, and the results are benchmarked using Energy Star® Portfolio Manager. A custom Microsoft Excel® based simulation model is created to simulate occupancy levels, lighting, plug loads, and other equipment used in various spaces throughout the day. For Building A, efficient lighting was the most influential parameter for energy savings, carbon savings and benchmarking score; whereas, for Building B, HVAC efficiency was most influential for energy and demand controlled ventilation and economizers was most influential for benchmarking score. While retrofit projects can save energy and carbon emissions, variation in source-site ratios and state grid emissions, benchmarking scores may not always reflect equivalent improvement. State grid emissions factors, natural gas composition are difficult to model and hence not considered in this study. In conclusion, the synergistic analysis presented, emphasizes the importance of benchmarking and efficiency retrofits in promoting sustainable building practices to reduce energy consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2005

Development of the Surface Management System Integrated with CTAS Arrival Tools

The Surface Management System (SMS) developed by NASA Ames Research Center in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is a decision support tool to help tower traffic coordinators and Ground/Local controllers in managing and controlling airport surface traffic in order to increase capacity, efficiency, and flexibility. SMS provides common situation awareness to personnel at various air traffic control facilities such as airport traffic control towers (ATCT s), airline ramp towers, Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON), and Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). SMS also provides a traffic management tool to assist ATCT traffic management coordinators (TMCs) in making decisions such as airport configuration and runway load balancing. The Build 1 of the SMS tool was installed and successfully tested at Memphis International Airport (MEM) and received high acceptance scores from ATCT controllers and coordinators, as well as airline ramp controllers. NASA Ames Research Center continues to develop SMS under NASA s Strategic Airspace Usage (SAU) project in order to improve its prediction accuracy and robustness under various modeling uncertainties. This paper reports the recent development effort performed by the NASA Ames Research Center: 1) integration of Center TRACON Automation System (CTAS) capability with SMS and 2) an alternative approach to obtain airline gate information through a publicly available website. The preliminary analysis results performed on the air/surface traffic data at the DFW airport have shown significant improvement in predicting airport arrival demand and IN time at the gate. This paper concludes with recommendations for future research and development.

Jung, Yoon C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monitoring Airspace Complexity and Determining Contributing Factors

The national airspace has evolved over many years to accommodate increased traffic demand [1] while simultaneously maintaining one of the safest forms of transportation [2], [3]. One of the reasons for this success is the ability of the system and the operators to adapt and accommodate to situations that routinely disrupt optimal operations. These situations may include: adverse weather, delays, early arrivals, equipment outages, and other factors that are outside the operators ability to control. These factors can lead to states where automation is unable to properly handle these issues and therefore air traffic controllers and pilots have to intervene, ultimately increasing communication between operators resulting in higher workload. As controller workload increases to handle sub-optimal operating conditions this can be viewed as an increase in complexity. The reasoning for this is because humans are now required to make tactical decisions in response to external factors, resulting in a departure from the strategic plan where operations would be more efficiently managed. Human operators control airspace complexity under rigid regulations that are constantly changing. The airspace is divided into sectors and the number of aircraft assigned to each controller is limited for safe handling. There has been past work that devised airspace complexity metrics in commercial aviation and related these metrics to controller workload (e.g., [4],[5]). The upper bounds on the system load are pre-determined. Such bounds on complexity make for a safe system, but the system cannot scale and adapt to autonomous, dense, and heterogeneous traffic, including the many types of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) envisioned to be added to the operations. We hypothesize that, as traffic density and heterogeneity grow, and other key metrics change, there will be phase transitions at which the way traffic should be managed changes significantly [6]. We offer a method for in-time detection of contributing factors that lead to phase transitions, characterized by increased complexity. To the best of our knowledge, there is no tool similar to our proposed effort that identifies such contributing factors or precursor patterns. To define the scope we are proposing to measure complexity from the viewpoint of the Terminal Radar Approach Control Facilities (TRACON) controller’s perspective. In particular we are analyzing arrivals into KSFO. With safety as the top concern for airspace operators, it is important to recognize that as density and heterogeneity grow, the focus of the system will change. Times of the day when the airspace has low density and heterogeneity, the flights will follow more efficient paths where the aircraft move on established routes that are more or less directly to the destination. However, when density and heterogeneity increases, the system will begin changing focus to avoiding conflicts and collisions and route the flights in a more flexible way. Higher flexibility requires more communication and coordination between controllers and pilots which the current automation is unable to handle. This paper proposes a novel approach that monitors airspace complexity at multiple scales, uses a Machine Learning-based tool that predicts when operations will transition to a regime of greater complexity, and identifies actions that can reduce the complexity while still maintaining efficient and safe operations. We demonstrate our proposed approach using data from multiple complementary sources. This includes, but is not limited to: historical aircraft surveillance data from NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse [7], METAR weather data, and airport configuration data from Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM). The surveillance data flight paths are sampled at a variable sample rate — increasing as the aircraft approaches the airport. This is due to how Sherlock manages flight track stitching between different radar facilities which have different sampling rates. The weather and performance data are logged at defined intervals throughout the day at a courser refresh rate. In addition to the logged data and metrics, we leverage pre-defined Standard Terminal Arrival Routes (STARs) procedures to characterize the path of each flight. Each flight files for one of these routes in the flight plan well before entering the terminal airspace, and approximately follows the route until it leaves the STAR, typically on the final fix of a runway transition. However, most flights do not always fly the full STAR procedure to completion [8], but the majority do adhere to the fixes within the common route of the procedure. Our approach leverages fixes in the common route of each of the STARs to build a reference path to the airport. This allows us to characterize the flight paths in what we are defining as the “maneuvering area” (the airspace between the STAR and before the flight is lined up on the runway’s final approach) to determine how off nominal the flights are to calculate its complexity score. Determining airspace complexity is a concept that does not have a concrete answer. In designing this metric, we consider what increases the workload for the air traffic controllers. Consequently more specialized vectoring maneuvers results in higher workload. Accordingly, we start with a theory: each flight has a direct path it takes from the STAR’s common route to the final approach’s outer marker fix for the flight’s landing runway. It is important to note that the direct path is only used as a reference. If the majority of the flights have a large consistent offset as compared to other routes it does not necessarily mean that those flights have higher complexity. We are merely building a distribution based on this direct path for that particular STAR and runway pair to determine the normal mode of operations for that route. Flights that are in the upper tail of these distributions will result in higher complexity scores and flights that fly in the median will represent the normal mode of operations and therefore will have lower complexity scores. Since flights following each STAR route take different paths to the airport, we have a different distribution for each STAR route and therefore can model these distributions to compute a complexity score from their respective normalized distributions. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed airspace complexity metric we will compare against an established approach based on trajectory clustering [9]. This unsupervised learning technique consists of the following steps: (1) identify the general maneuvering areas (waypoints) by performing $\kappa$-means or DBSCAN clustering on locations where aircraft frequently turn based on the surveillance radar track data, (2) map flight trajectories onto sequences of waypoints, and (3) cluster the sequences based on their common subsequences. From a high-level perspective, this baseline model learns nominal operations in the airspace through the sequence of waypoints that are representative of where aircraft change direction and defines deviations from the nominal operations as “complex.” Therefore, more deviations from the nominal operations correspond to higher complexity values. For our validation, we re-implemented this technique and tune model hyper-parameters to correctly detect waypoints for the arrival traffic into the San Francisco bay area. We will compute the complexity measure over a one-year period using our proposed technique as well as the baseline. Our validation will be based on each technique’s ability to detect a set of undesirable outcomes (e.g., go-arounds, holding patterns, average time in the airspace, etc.). Since our current complexity metric is derived from the offset from the direct reference path, it’s important to understand what causes these offsets. In many of the flights with high offset distance, flights performing holding patterns and S turns can be observed. These maneuvering tactics are utilized to add distance between the aircraft and the destination runway to prevent multiple flights from having conflicting arrival times. In order to predict a rise in complexity (or the precursor to complexity), it’s necessary to be able to identify these potential conflicts (which in turn, result in higher offsets). To do this, we define a “representative flight” for each STAR route and runway pair. This flight is approximately the path the flight would take if there was a clear path with no other flights in the airspace — including the time remaining to the airport. We first identify the flights for a given STAR runway pair using the offset to the reference path distributions that fall between the 44-55 percentiles. This yields the flights that conform to the most normal mode of operation. Each of these flights is partitioned based on the percent complete from the entry point into the maneuvering areas from 0\% – 100\% complete. Then for each percent “bin”, we take the median value of the flight’s latitude/longitude coordinates, airspeed, and (non causal) time remaining to the airport to construct a lookup table for each percent complete bin on a given route. As a flight enters the maneuvering area, we can find the estimated arrival time of a flight to the airport by finding the closest point to the representative path’s percent complete bin (relative to the flight’s current position at any snapshot in the airspace) and therefore retrieve the corresponding remaining time left on the “representative path”. We assume that the flight will follow the representative path to completion when deriving these estimates. We can then compare these estimated arrival times against other flights for the same snapshot in time to identify potential conflicts. If more flights are estimated to arrive within a tolerance window than there are runways available, then we have a potential conflict. We can use this derived measure along with other factors expected to add disruption to the operation such as weather and runway configuration changes as an input to machine learning tools to detect precursors that increases in our complexity measure. This novel method will assist in uncovering insights into the contributing factors that lead to increased complexity that may allow for in-time responses to avoid reaching a high complexity state in the airspace.

complexity↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimenting in the cloud: The digital divide's impact on innovation

This paper builds on a recent National Science Foundation working paper that identified a strong association between cloud use and various types of innovation but did not consider whether 1) cloud adoption is a reliable indicator of the innovation orientation of a firm, or 2) cloud adoption enables various types of innovation. We estimate propensity score matching and endogenous treatment effect models to control for innovation orientation, producing evidence to test the second explanation. Here, findings support an enabling effect of the cloud on innovation providing concrete evidence of the adverse impact of the digital divide.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Customer enrollment and participation in building demand management programs: A review of key factors

Increasing the efficiency and flexibility of electricity demand is necessary for ensuring a cost-effective and reliable transition to zero-carbon electricity systems. Such demand-side management (DSM) resources have been procured by utilities for decades via energy efficiency and demand response programs; however, the key drivers of program enrollment and customer participation levels remain poorly understood — even as governments and grid planners seek to scale up the deployment of DSM assets to meet climate targets. Here we systematically review the evidence on multiple factors that may influence customer enrollment and participation in building DSM programs, focusing primarily on residential and commercial buildings. We examine the contexts in which relationships between DSM factors and outcomes are most often explored and with which methods; we also score the strength, direction, and internal consistency of each factor's reported impact on the enrollment and participation outcomes. We find that studies most commonly assess the effects of economic incentives for load flexibility on program participation levels, often using simulation-based methods in lieu of measured data. Few studies focus on program enrollment outcomes or regulatory drivers of either enrollment or participation, and gaps are also evident in the coverage of emerging DSM opportunities like load electrification. Removal of structural barriers (e.g., the lack of controls infrastructure) and the use of third party services (e.g., load aggregators) are the factors with the largest positive impacts on DSM outcomes, but no single factor emerges as clearly most impactful. For a given factor, the range of reported impacts typically varies widely across the relevant studies reviewed. Our findings provide a snapshot of the state of knowledge about building DSM and customer decision-making, and they expose key gaps in understanding that must be filled if building DSM is to expand as a critical resource for operating clean power grids.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

A comparative analysis of green building rating systems in China and the United States

Several studies have compared green building rating systems (GBRSs) in China and the United States, Nonetheless, few studies included in-depth analysis on specific rating tools with project specific data validating green building technologies and actual performance. This study conducted a comprehensive data-driven comparison of the GBRSs of China and the United States. The goal was to understand the current status and further improve China's GBRS and promote green building technologies. The study first conducted thorough comparisons of GBRSs in China and the U.S. by selecting a series of distinct rating tools. Then, it analyzed each tool's development objectives, contents, and rating score settings. Further, the comparison concludes the future development needs for China's GBRS. In addition to standard comparison, green building technologies applied in certified projects were also summarized. The results demonstrated that GBRSs in both China and the U.S. reflect well the technical paths to achieve green building sustainable development. By analyzing certified projects, it was also found that the incremental costs of green building technologies were controllable. Finally, based on the comparison and case analysis, the study provide a set of policy recommendations to further improve China's green building standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1992

Anthropomorphic teleoperation: Controlling remote manipulators with the DataGlove

A two phase effort was conducted to assess the capabilities and limitations of the DataGlove, a lightweight glove input device that can output signals in real-time based on hand shape, orientation, and movement. The first phase was a period for system integration, checkout, and familiarization in a virtual environment. The second phase was a formal experiment using the DataGlove as input device to control the protoflight manipulator arm (PFMA) - a large telerobotic arm with an 8-ft reach. The first phase was used to explore and understand how the DataGlove functions in a virtual environment, build a virtual PFMA, and consider and select a reasonable teleoperation control methodology. Twelve volunteers (six males and six females) participated in a 2 x 3 (x 2) full-factorial formal experiment using the DataGlove to control the PFMA in a simple retraction, slewing, and insertion task. Two within-subjects variables, time delay (0, 1, and 2 seconds) and PFMA wrist flexibility (rigid/flexible), were manipulated. Gender served as a blocking variable. A main effect of time delay was found for slewing and total task times. Correlations among questionnaire responses, and between questionnaire responses and session mean scores and gender were computed. The experimental data were also compared with data collected in another study that used a six degree-of-freedom handcontroller to control the PFMA in the same task. It was concluded that the DataGlove is a legitimate teleoperations input device that provides a natural, intuitive user interface. From an operational point of view, it compares favorably with other 'standard' telerobotic input devices and should be considered in future trades in teleoperation systems' designs.

Hale, J. P., II↗

DOE OSTI2026

In-situ sensor monitoring of multi-class gas porosity formation in laser powder bed fusion using convolutional neural network

In-situ monitoring of defect formation remains a significant challenge in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process. Recent advances have enabled real-time defect detection with machine learning and in-situ sensing technologies; however, most studies focus on binary classification of keyhole pores, limiting nuanced multi-class pore differentiation and formation mechanisms. This work introduces a multi-class pore detection framework (no pore, small pores < 15 µm, and large pores > 15 µm) by leveraging photodiode sensor data alongside high-fidelity synchrotron X-ray imaging. The 15 µm threshold is selected to distinguish between two fundamentally different defect mechanisms, following the physical size-mechanism boundary established by prior high-resolution synchrotron X-ray characterization of Al6061 LPBF. Distinguishing these classes is critical because large keyhole pores are structurally detrimental, whereas small gas pores are often benign, requiring different process control strategies. Thermal emission monitoring data collected simultaneously with high-speed X-ray imaging at the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Lightsource (SSRL), are correlated with subsurface melt pool dynamics to establish ground truth. Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) with optimized parameters converts the photodiode time-series signals into time–frequency images, facilitating feature extraction. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are then applied for real-time multi-class pore classification in an average inference time of 1 ms per signal window. It achieves 79% accuracy and an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC ROC) score of 0.89 with five-fold cross-validation. The results demonstrate that coupling CWT-based feature engineering with CNN architecture enables reliable multi-class pore detection in Al6061 builds using affordable in-situ sensors. This approach advances scalable and affordable quality assurance in additive manufacturing by moving beyond binary defect detection toward more nuanced classification of porosity mechanisms with in-situ sensors and machine learning.

Laser powder bed fusion, Multi-class pores, In-sit↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning enhanced predictions of ICRF heating: Overcoming numerical limitations via data curation

In this work, we present the development of robust surrogate models for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) and High-Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating predictions in fusion plasmas. Building upon our previous efforts to achieve real-time capable models, we identify the cause of the outliers found using TORIC in certain HHFW heating scenarios. The outliers are observed to be spurious ion Bernstein wave (IBW)-like modes caused by a wavelength control algorithm designed to address challenging scenarios with high perpendicular wavenumbers. The effect arises from the modulation in the perpendicular susceptibility, which can induce sign reversal and IBW-like propagation for scenarios featuring normalized ion Larmor radius λ i ≫ 1. We use TORIC with this algorithm disabled to generate a novel HHFW-NSTX database that is free of outliers. Surrogate models trained on this database, including Random Forest Regressor (RFR), Multi-Layer Perceptrons, and Gaussian Process Regressors (GPR), demonstrate the ability to accurately predict HHFW heating profiles, with regression scores of R 2 ∈[0.93−0.99]. Additionally we demonstrate that it is possible to generalize predictions beyond training data by the use of both RFR and GPR models, enabling the prediction of scenarios previously limited to the original model. GPR models also provide uncertainty quantification, offering insights into model confidence. This work introduces a comprehensive Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification methodology for surrogate modeling, applicable not only to ICRF heating but also to other RF heating challenges and fusion physics problems. Beyond accelerated inference, these models show effective extrapolation capabilities, providing an alternative for addressing numerical challenges.

Artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emulation and detection of physical faults and cyber-attacks on building energy systems through real-time hardware-in-the-loop experiments

The increasing use of remote or mobile access, integrated wearable technologies, data exchange, and cloud-based data analytics in modern smart buildings is steering the building industry towards open communication technologies. The increased connectivity and accessibility could lead to more cyber-attacks in smart buildings. On the other hand, physical faults (e.g., HVAC -heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning faults) may have similar adverse impacts as those from the cyber-attacks on building energy systems, such as occupant discomfort, energy wastage, and equipment downtime. However, current physical behavior-based anomaly detection methods fail to differentiate between cyber-attacks and physical faults in building energy systems. Moreover, the challenge in collecting real-world threat data with ground truth has led researchers to rely on numerical models with user-defined assumptions, which may not accurately reflect real-world conditions due to the lack of in-situ experimental datasets. To address these challenges and gaps, this paper presents a flexible hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for generating cyber-attack and physical fault datasets and demonstrating threat detection algorithms in a real building automation system (BAS) environment. This testbed combines hardware (i.e., real BAS with local HVAC controllers and a physical network) with software (i.e., high-fidelity models to represent behaviors of building envelope and HVAC energy systems), enabling emulations of realistic threats. Five HIL experiments, including one baseline without any threats, two with physical faults, and two with cyber-attacks, were conducted to generate datasets containing detailed network traffic and system states. A joint classification framework, incorporating a network analyzer and a physical HVAC fault detector, was proposed to automatically detect cyber-physical abnormalities on BAS at both the network and the physical HVAC levels. The network analyzer comprises a conditional random fields (CRF) based command validator and a statistics-based detection strategy. The fault detector employs a weather and schedule-based pattern matching and feature-based principal component analysis (WPM-FPCA) method. Evaluation of the classification using four metrics from the multi-class confusion matrix revealed an average accuracy of 90.2%, recall of 89.7%, precision of 88.5% and F1-score of 89.2%. Finally, these results demonstrate that the proposed joint classification framework can effectively differentiate between specific types of cyber-attacks (e.g., device reinitialization attack, network Denial-of-Service attack) and physical faults (e.g., air handling unit operational fault, cooling coil valve stuck) in real time for improved building energy management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2018

Closed Loop Guidance Trade Study for Space Launch System Block-1B Vehicle

NASA is currently building the Space Launch System (SLS) Block-1 launch vehicle for the Exploration Mission 1 (EM-1) test flight. The design of the next evolution of SLS, Block-1B, is well underway. The Block-1B vehicle is more capable overall than Block-1; however, the relatively low thrust-to-weight ratio of the Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) presents a challenge to the Powered Explicit Guidance (PEG) algorithm used by Block-1. To handle the long burn durations (on the order of 1000 seconds) of EUS missions, two algorithms were examined. An alternative algorithm, OPGUID, was introduced, while modifications were made to PEG. A trade study was conducted to select the guidance algorithm for future SLS vehicles. The chosen algorithm needs to support a wide variety of mission operations: ascent burns to LEO, apogee raise burns, trans-lunar injection burns, hyperbolic Earth departure burns, and contingency disposal burns using the Reaction Control System (RCS). Additionally, the algorithm must be able to respond to a single engine failure scenario. Each algorithm was scored based on pre-selected criteria, including insertion accuracy, algorithmic complexity and robustness, extensibility for potential future missions, and flight heritage. Monte Carlo analysis was used to select the final algorithm. This paper covers the design criteria, approach, and results of this trade study, showing impacts and considerations when adapting launch vehicle guidance algorithms to a broader breadth of in-space operations.

Von der Porten, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2005

Satellite and Ground System Solutions at Your Fingertips

In the summer of 1998, the blockbuster action movie Armageddon captivated audiences with a thrilling doomsday plot about a meteor the size of Texas that was racing towards the Earth. Though the premise of the movie was purely fictional, the unfortunate reality is that near-Earth asteroids such as the one portrayed in the film do exist. On December 23, 2004, NASA announced that an asteroid it anticipated to pass near the Earth on April 13, 2029, had been assigned the highest score to date on the universally used Torino Impact Hazard Scale. At first, the flyby distance for the asteroid, dubbed MN4, was uncertain and an Earth impact could not be ruled out. The odds of impact were initially believed to be 1 in 300, high enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers around the world, but were then escalated to 1 in 37 on December 27. NASA officials noted, however, that these odds should not be of public concern, since they were likely to change on a day-to-day basis as new data were received. The officials were correct in their assertion, as any chances of an impact with Earth in 2029 were completely ruled out later that same day. Integral Systems, Inc., a leading provider of satellite ground systems and the first company to offer an integrated suite of commercial-off-the-shelf software products for satellite command and control, is helping NASA keep a careful watch for any close-encountering asteroids with its tracking technology. The company supported the first NASA Discovery mission, the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) program, back in 1996, and has expanded its business by building more ground systems for a greater variety of satellites than any other company in the world. (NASA has since launched seven more Discovery missions, with the eighth lifting off earlier this year.) The experience gained from the company s participation in developing satellite command and control ground systems for the NEAR program has bolstered its flagship product line, the EPOCH Integrated Product Suite (IPS), first featured in Spinoff 1997, and led to the creation of its latest product, the Skylight Direct Broadcast Ground Terminal.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. It affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and both surface and airspace operations can benefit from better understanding future runway configurations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive implementation of predictive models for runway configuration estimation from large volumes of historical data. Specifically, operational data from two full years (2018 and 2019) is collected, analyzed, and fused together to build the data product used in this work. The data set differs from prior work in the field in terms of its scope, resolution, and variety of factors collected and considered. Meteorological data is collected from two different sources – current weather conditions from METAR (Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report) and forecast weather conditions from Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). Operational data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) related to scheduled and actual number of arrivals and departures, average taxi times, etc. are collected. NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse is used to identify critical information such as go-arounds, and other events that might impact RCM decision-making. All data is collected and aggregated over 15-minute intervals throughout the two years. This provides a resolution like the timescales that might be necessary for runway configuration management decision-making. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, etc. including tuning of the model hyperparameters. The modeling process is applied and presented on two representative U.S. airports – Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT) and Denver International Airport (KDEN). The two airports present different levels of complexity in terms of the total number of configurations used and provide a balanced perspective on the generalizability of the developed approach to other airports in the NAS. Initial results are promising (F1 score of 0.91 at KCLT and 0.83 at KDEN) for data in the test set. The final paper will contain a comprehensive comparison between different models and model building strategies as well as further refined results. Most important predictors for each airport will be identified along with a discussion and recommendations on adapting the framework to other scenarios.

Tejas G Puranik↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗