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Cambium 2024 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2024 Cambium data set is the fifth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity. Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2024's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Workbooks for Cambium 2024 Data

These workbooks contain a subset of cost and emissions data from the 2024 Cambium datasets, with levelization calculations to assist users in translating Cambium’s year-over-year values to a representative value for a user-specified project timeline. These workbooks provide modeled data for 18 GEA regions covering the contiguous United States, projected forward through 2050. Mappings of these regions to ZIP codes and counties is given within this workbook in the corresponding tabs. For the full Cambium 2024 data sets, see the Cambium 2024 project on NREL's Scenario Viewer. For more details on input assumptions and methodology see the associated report: Cambium 2024 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation. Users are advised to review section 4 of the report, which discusses limitations and caveats of the data. This data is planned to be updated annually. Information on the latest versions can be found on the NREL energy analysis page on Cambium.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cambium

The Cambium investigation is one in a pair of investigations which utilizes the Advanced Biological Research System (ABRS). Cambium seeks definitive evidence that gravity has a direct effect on cambial cells (cells located under the inner bark where secondary growth occurs) in willow, Salix babylonica. The Cambium investigation uses willow plants flown on the International Space Station to better understand the fundamental processes by which plants produce cellulose and lignin, the two main structural materials found in plant matter. On Earth, the nature of wood within tree stems varies depending on position, and that within-tree variation includes differences in cell types and chemistry including lignin and cellulose, two major components of wood influencing wood strength, usefulness and carbon content. Reaction wood is an extreme example of such variation, and it is believed that reaction wood develops as a reaction to the influence of gravity. For the Cambium experiment, young willow plants will be launched to the ISS where their stems will be looped in an attempt to induce reaction wood formation. After on-orbit growth, the plants will be preserved and returned to Earth for analysis. Understanding the role of gravity in wood formation is expected to enable wiser management of forests for carbon sequestration as well as better utilization of trees for wood products. Detailed Research Description: The Cambium experiment will provide an understanding of physiological processes such as gene expression, metabolism and general plant development that are affected in plant systems exposed to space flight. Cambium seeks definitive evidence that gravity has a direct effect on the cambial cells (cells located under the inner bark where secondary growth occurs) that contribute to xylogenesis (reaction wood formation) in willow plants, Salix babylonica. Tension wood fibers differentiate on the upper sides of stems when the stem is altered from its normal (vertical) growth position by looping. This reaction wood response does not occur if the orientation of the plant stem with respect to gravity is not altered. If a localized zone of tension wood should be formed in looped stems under microgravity conditions, this would be the first conclusive evidence that gravity is not required. On the other hand, if a zone of tension wood is not produced in looped stems (subjected to tension on one side, compression on the other) in microgravity, this would be the first definitive evidence that gravity has a direct effect on the cambial cells which contribute to reaction wood formation. Following return to Earth the plants will be analyzed by microscopy and chemical methods.

Savidge, Rodney↗

Cambium Datasets [Slides]

This is a presentation deck used in the "Powered By Cambium" webinar, given on August 13th 2024, in which Pieter Gagnon gave an overview of NREL's Cambium datasets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

APEX-CAMBIUM: A Case Study in Advantages and Challenges of International Cooperation for the International Space Station

It is generally agreed that space science benefits from an international collaboration. There are different mechanisms to make this happen but to recognize opportunities requires a keen awareness of the activities, people and respective strengths. Apex- Cambium is a joint Canadian Space Agency (CSA)-National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiative. It was made possible in large part through the good relations and shared willingness to meet a common objective, that of doing exciting science in space. The actual mechanics of bringing an international project together can be divided into two perspectives: programmatic and implementation. The programmatic component includes recognizing complementarities, bringing science together, and the need to have Agencies approve and accept joint responsibility for the mission. The implementation component involves working to define science requirements, available resources and assigning individual responsibilities while keeping the overall success criteria as a collective objective. The APEX-CAMB11.JM mission will be described from the point of view of both CSA and NASA. Suggestions on how to facilitate these types of initiatives will be provided and highlights of the APEX-Cambium collaboration will be provided.

Cox, David↗

Dirigent proteins and dirigent sites in lignifying tissues

Tissue-specific dirigent protein gene expression and associated dirigent (site) localization were examined in various organs of Forsythia intermedia using tissue printing, in situ mRNA hybridization and immunolabeling techniques, respectively. Dirigent protein gene expression was primarily noted in the undifferentiated cambial regions of stem sections, whereas dirigent protein sites were detected mainly in the vascular cambium and ray parenchyma cell initials. Immunolocalization also revealed cross-reactivity with particular regions of the lignified cell walls, these being coincident with the known sites of initiation of lignin deposition. These latter regions are considered to harbor contiguous arrays of dirigent (monomer binding) sites for initiation of lignin biopolymer assembly. Dirigent protein mRNA expression was also localized in the vascular regions of roots and petioles, whereas in leaves the dirigent sites were primarily associated with the palisade layers and the vascular bundle. That is, dirigent protein mediated lignan biosynthesis was initiated primarily in the cambium and ray cell initial regions of stems as well as in the leaf palisade layers, this being in accordance with the occurrence of the lignans for defense purposes. Within lignified secondary xylem cell walls, however, dirigent sites were primarily localized in the S(1) sublayer and compound middle lamella, these being coincident with previously established sites for initiation of macromolecular lignin biosynthesis. Once initiation occurs, lignification is proposed to continue through template polymerization.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗

The value of integrating a geothermal district heating system into a microgrid

As electrical grids increasingly rely on variable renewable energy, maintaining reliability and cost efficiency becomes more complex. To address these challenges, this study analyzed the integration of geothermal district heating as a grid-responsive thermal resource within a microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Building energy modeling using EnergyPlus estimated annual district heating demand at 2.9 GWh, with a peak load of 2.8 MW th . Techno-economic analyses were conducted to meet the heating demand under three geothermal scenarios, varying by production depth, flow rate, and thermal output, each supplemented by natural gas peaking boilers. In parallel, equivalent electrical load profiles were developed using typical coefficients of performance (COPs) for air-source heat pumps and electric boilers to establish an electrified baseline scenario. A complete end-use electrical load profile was also developed for the microgrid using Cambium dataset. The modeling results demonstrated reliable and economic operation of the geothermal systems over 30 years, with COPs ranging from 2.6 to 8.9 and the lowest levelized heating cost at $\$$54.6/MWh. Geothermal integration reduced electricity consumption by up to 94.7 % compared to the non-geothermal base case, yielding annual energy savings of up to $\$$803 k. Avoided grid costs ranged from $\$$65 k–$\$$147 k per year, with individual events avoiding up to $\$$4,863 per hour. Grid-responsive operation further reduced wholesale energy costs by 53–56 %. These findings demonstrate geothermal heating, traditionally treated as a non-grid-responsive thermal resource, can be reconfigured to support dynamic grid services, offering a scalable pathway to enhance reliability and reduce costs in renewable-rich microgrids and district heating networks.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Surface Chemistry and Particle Morphology Changes in Pine Biomass under Indirect Thermal Gradients: Implications for Feed Screw Design

The conversion of biomass feedstocks into fuels and chemicals using fast pyrolysis is a promising approach to renewable energy. Feed screws that convey biomass to pyrolysis reactors, however, often encounter plugging. Indirect heating of the feed screw occurs due to contact with the pyrolysis chamber, resulting in a heating gradient ranging from ambient temperature (22 °C) to reactor temperature (500 °C). Given that major cell wall macromolecules, such as lignin, cellulose, and hemicellulose, begin to produce bio-oils and volatile resin acid compounds within this temperature gradient, we hypothesized that indirect heating during feed screw conveyance is sufficient to cause premature degradation of biomass. We characterized this degradation by observing increases in surface roughness, changes in overall particle morphology, and the production and deposition of bio-oils on biomass particle surfaces. Correlative analysis between optical in situ hot-stage microscopy, confocal Raman spectroscopy, and SEM analysis revealed that heating at temperatures as low as 375 °C caused significant increases in surface roughness, with large fissures forming between and within cell walls. Additionally, droplets of bio-oil were observed on particles, especially in the bark and cambium samples. This work suggests that these phenomena contribute to particle agglomeration, leading to feed screw plugging, and that engineering a solution to cool the feed screw could prevent particle agglomeration and reduce plugging incidents, thereby increasing biomass processing efficiency.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

An Improved Sampling and Baiting Method for Phytophthora tropicalis and P. heveae Detection in Macadamia integrifolia

Macadamia nuts are, economically, the second most important crop in the state of Hawai’i. A recent decline in yield and acreage has been attributed to insect damage and diseases such as Macadamia Quick Decline (MQD) caused by Phytophthora tropicalis and P. heveae. To develop an improved methodology for the diagnosis and treatment of MQD, investigations were undertaken to better understand the pathosystem of the disease. These investigations included sampling from multiple locations from sectioned trees utilizing two methods of tissue collection and isolations using two baiting techniques. The collection of tissue from the cambium and phloem of trees after scraping away the bark and in locations of recent or current sap exudation using a narrow diameter steel awl proved to be an efficient means for the molecular detection of the MQD pathogens from infected trees exhibiting MQD symptoms. In addition, a more efficient and cost-effective baiting method using apple puree was developed.

Plant Sciences↗

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Thigmomorphogenesis: anatomical, morphological and mechanical analysis of genetically different sibs of Pinus taeda in response to mechanical perturbation

Twenty-three open pollinated families (half-sibs) and four controlled pollinated families (full-sibs) of Pinus taeda L. (loblolly pine) were grown in a greenhouse and analyzed for changes induced by mechanical perturbation (MP). These changes included inhibition of stem and needle elongation, bracing of branch nodes, and increased radial growth in the direction of the MP. Inhibition of stem elongation was the least variable feature measured. Leaf extension and stem diameter were highly variable between half-sibs. MP induced increased drag in greenhouse grown P. taeda in wind-tunnel tests. In P. taeda, MP induced decreased flexibility and increased elasticity and plasticity of the stem. The increased radial growth of the stems overrode the increase in elasticity, resulting in an overall decrease in flexibility. MP trees had a higher rupture point than non-MP controls. Increased radial growth is a result of more rapid cell divisions of the vascular cambium, resulting in increased numbers of tracheids. The decreased leader growth is partly due to a decreased tracheid length in response to MP.

Non-NASA Center↗

Thigmomorphogenesis: field and laboratory studies of Abies fraseri in response to wind or mechanical perturbation

Field- and greenhouse-grown Abies fraseri (Pursh) Poir. (Fraser fir) were analyzed for wind- or mechanically-induced flexure changes. These changes included inhibition of stem and needle elongation, reinforcement of branch bases around the stem, and increased radial growth in the direction of the mechanical perturbation (MP). Mature trees exposed to high wind conditions were severely flag-formed. These modified tree crowns had a lower drag than crowns of non-flag formed trees in wind-tunnel tests. In both field-grown and greenhouse-grown A. fraseri, MP induced a decrease in flexibility and increased elasticity of the stems. The increased radial growth of the stems overrode the increase in elasticity, resulting in the overall decrease in flexibility. The increase in radial growth caused by wind or mechanical flexure was due to greater cell divisions of the vascular cambium, resulting in increased numbers of tracheids. The decrease in stem elongation in these trees was due, at least in part, to a decrease in tracheid length. The potential biological and mechanical significance of these induced growth changes in trees are addressed. The data support the thigmomorphogenetic theory, which states that plants respond to wind and other mechanical perturbations in a way that is favorable to the plant for continued survival in windy environments.

NASA Discipline Plant Biology↗

ISS and Shuttle Payload Research Development and Processing

NASA's ISS and Spacecraft Processing Directorate (UB) is charged with the performance of payload development for research originating through NASA, ISS international partners, and the National Laboratory. The Payload Development sector of the Directorate takes biological research approved for on orbit experimentation from its infancy stage and finds a way to integrate and implement that research into a payload on either a Shuttle sortie or Space Station increment. From solicitation and selection, to definition, to verification, to integration and finally to operations and analysis, Payload Development is there every step of the way. My specific work as an intern this summer has consisted of investigating data received by separate flight and ground control Advanced Biological Research Systems (ABRS) units for Advanced Plant Experiments (APEX) and Cambium research. By correlation and analysis of this data and specific logbook information I have been working to explain changes in environmental conditions on both the flight and ground control unit. I have then, compiled all of that information into a form that can be presentable to the Principal Investigator (PI). This compilation allows that PI scientist to support their findings and add merit to their research. It also allows us, as the Payload Developers, to further inspect the ABRS unit and its performance

Calhoun, Kyle A.↗

Projected Operational Energy Life Cycle Data 2025

These excel files contain the environmental emission projections for key building energy sources: electricity, natural gas, propane (LPG), and fuel oil. The sources and methods are provided in the report "Projected Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development: 2025 Update." The report and data are an update to the data previously posted here: https://netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f8890fac-be55-44ac-aaa9-e2888bfabe93

annual energy outlook↗

Revenue Analysis for Energy Storage Systems in the United States

In this work we evaluate the potential revenue from energy storage using historical electricity prices, forward-looking projections of hourly electricity prices, and actual reported revenue. This analysis examines the impact of storage characteristics, specifically duration and round-trip efficiency, as well as locational elements of storage revenue within the current and projected U.S. power system. Figure ES-1 illustrates the revenue for a 1 MW storage system in seven market regions with durations range from 1 hour to 12 hours using both historical and forward-looking price data. The historical analysis covers more than 500 price nodes for each market region, while the forward-looking analysis includes balancing areas under different 10 scenarios of the electricity generation mix. The results indicate that the revenues consistently increase with duration, though the marginal value declines as duration grows. Moreover, the range of revenue depends on the system's operational location, and the electricity generation mix changes for future years. This range also widens with increased durations. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of round-trip efficiency reveals that as efficiency improves, system revenue increases, though the value of better round-trip efficiency declines as at higher efficiency levels.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Impact of Geothermal District Heating System on Flexibility of Microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma: Preprint

Flexibility is the capability of the power grid to maintain a balance between electricity generation and variable demand. This study presents preliminary results evaluating the impact of geothermal district heating systems on the flexibility of a conceptual microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Heating demand profiles were modeled using EnergyPlus for the district that includes two schools and 250 single-family houses. Then, geothermal energy production was modeled using GEOPHIRES to estimate how much heating demand in the district can be supplied by five different geothermal system scenarios. The results indicated that geothermal energy production varied depending on the resource temperature at different depths, system configurations, and flow rates. For the grid flexibility analysis, electricity consumptions in the five geothermal systems were estimated for pump operations to circulate water from the wells to radiators, while electricity consumption by air-source heat pump in the base case was estimated to supply the same heating load. Electricity consumption in the geothermal systems was significantly lower than those in base cases. The electricity saved by the geothermal system was then incorporated into the microgrid electrical load profiles where variable renewable electricity generation is significantly high. The results visually showed that geothermal district heating system can improve grid flexibility as a baseload during the winter season. The results also highlighted potential opportunities to save energy costs that will be further analyzed in future study.

Cambium↗

Impact of Geothermal District Heating System on Flexibility of Microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Flexibility is the capability of the power grid to maintain a balance between electricity generation and variable demand. This study presents preliminary results evaluating the impact of geothermal district heating systems on the flexibility of microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Heating demand profiles were modeled using EnergyPlus for the district that includes two schools and 250 single-family houses. Then, geothermal energy production was modeled using GEOPHIRES to estimate how much heating demand in the district can be supplied by five different geothermal system scenarios. The results indicated that geothermal energy production varied depending on the resource temperature at different depths, system configurations, and flow rates. For the grid flexibility analysis, electricity consumptions in the five geothermal systems were estimated for pump operations to circulate water from the wells to radiators, while electricity consumption by air-source heat pump in the base case was estimated to supply the same heating load. Electricity consumption in the geothermal systems was significantly lower than those in base cases. The electricity saved by the geothermal system was then incorporated into the microgrid electrical load profiles where variable renewable electricity generation is significantly high. The results visually showed that geothermal district heating system can improve grid flexibility as a baseload during the winter season. The results also highlighted potential opportunities to save energy costs that will be further analyzed in future study.

Cambium↗