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At least 19 records

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Historical Pattern Analysis of Global Geothermal Power Capacity Development: Preprint

Between 1913 and 1958, Italy was the only country with an operational geothermal power plant until New Zealand installed its first plant in 1958. At present, 24 countries are involved in the geothermal power market, and they have a combined installed capacity of 16,127 GW. This study analyzes the historical patterns of geothermal power capacity in the world and in individual countries to investigate the ideal global geothermal development pattern by examining the annual cumulative capacity (ACC) and the annual capacity addition (ACA) graphs of the historical development of geothermal power capacity in 24 countries. First, the global patterns are analyzed using these graphs in five periods (1945-1957, 1958-1976, 1977-1991, 1992-2002, and 2003-2020) that are marked by a series of characteristics of ACA peaks separated by two major troughs. Then, five characteristic patterns are developed in five periods globally. These patterns correspond to the early-stage linear, the first acceleration, the first steady-state linear, the second acceleration, and the second steady-state linear developments. A positive relationship exists between global patterns and the 5-year shifted oil-price curve: two major factors influenced global development: 1) increasing oil prices and increasing awareness of global climate change, and 2) global development of geothermal power. Last, we investigate these patterns in each country. The top ten countries, which comprise 93.3% of the world's total installed capacity are separated into five groups based on the availability and characteristics of patterns globally developed in five periods. Group-1 (the United States) has an installed capacity of 3,794 MW, Group-2 (Mexico and Philippines) 963-1935 MW, Group-3 (New Zealand, Italy, Iceland, and Japan) 601-1,037 MW, and Group-4 (Indonesia, Kenya, and Turkiye) 944-2,356 MW. The remaining 14 countries (6.7%), which are called Group 5, are still in an immature stage and have installed capacities of 7-262 MW and are not involved in pattern analysis. Overall, geothermal power in the world is in its third stage of development, which had its peak development after 1977. A fourth development peak may be expected to occur after this through business-as-usual cases. The biggest barrier to the development of the global geothermal power market is the risk associated with exploration and drilling. If risk mitigation systems and funds are employed, the growth of geothermal power production projects could accelerate.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Global Precipitation Experiment—A New World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity

The future state of the global water cycle and the prediction of freshwater availability for humans around the world remain among the challenges of climate research and are relevant to several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The Global Precipitation Experiment (GPEX) takes on the challenge of improving the prediction of precipitation quantity, phase, timing, and intensity, characteristics that are products of a complex integrated system. It will achieve this by leveraging existing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) activities and community capabilities in satellite, surface-based, and airborne observations, modeling, and experimental research and by conducting new and focused activities. It was launched in October 2023 as a WCRP Lighthouse Activity. Here, we present an overview of the GPEX Science Plan that articulates the primary science questions related to precipitation measurements, process understanding, model performance and improvements, and plans for capacity development. The central phase of GPEX is the WCRP Years of Precipitation for 2–3 years with coordinated global field campaigns focusing on different storm types (atmospheric rivers, mesoscale convective systems, monsoons, and tropical cyclones, among others) over different regions and seasons. Activities are planned over the three phases (before, during, and after the Years of Precipitation) spanning a decade. These include gridded data evaluation and development, advanced modeling, enhanced understanding of processes critical to precipitation, multiscale prediction of precipitation events across scales, and capacity development. These activities will be further developed as part of the GPEX Implementation Plan.

Climate change↗

Energy Infrastructure Futures: A Multiscale Evaluation of Projected Power Plant Siting Across the Western Interconnection

The US Western Interconnection is facing unprecedented challenges in the form of less predictable peak demand, increasingly diverse generating resources, and fast-growing loads due to the onset of artificial intelligence, hyperscale computing, and electrification. Projecting where future generation may be developed is critical to maintaining a robust and resilient electric grid under this mounting uncertainty and variability. Using an integrated multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that links a human-Earth systems model, an hourly load model, a geospatial power plant siting model, and an hourly grid operations model, we evaluate the power plant landscape evolution under eight alternative futures between 2020 and 2055. These futures represent a wide but plausible range of atmospheric conditions, emissions constraints, and economic, technological, and population growth assumptions. We find that local-level development can vary substantially both by generation type and capacity buildout across these futures. Specific regions of the Western Interconnection are projected to see large amounts of capacity development regardless of the future scenario. We additionally determine that projected power plant locations are more heavily influenced by the cost to interconnect to the electric grid than the locational energy value.

Mongird, Kendall↗

Interior Athabascan Energy Capacity Building Network (Final Report)

Tanana Chiefs Conference (TCC) is the traditional tribal consortium for the 37 federally recognized Tribes and villages of Interior Alaska. TCC is based on a belief in tribal self-determination and the need for regional Native unity. TCC is a nonprofit organization that works toward meeting the needs and challenges for more than 10,000 Alaska Natives (mostly Alaskan Athabaskans) in Interior Alaska. With support from DOE-OIE’s Inter-Tribal Technical Assistance grant, TCC’s goal was to expand and build on the solid foundation of work that the existing TCC Energy Program established through the creation of the Interior Athabascan Energy Network (IAEN). More specifically, the IAEN was designed to create a network of village-based energy champions across the interior and hold quarterly teleconferences and annual inperson meetings. Among the greatest impacts of the IAEN were the creation and support of realistic, communitybased energy projects that produced tangible results such as fuel savings and skills and capacity development among local staff as well as establishment of an energy team that included TCC staff, Tribal participants, technical consultants, and support agencies. The DOE-TA funding allowed us to provide technical assistance to our Tribal communities to develop energy projects, and to foster a network consisting of Tribal community members and energy experts that has strengthened the ability in the region to troubleshoot energy issues, develop meaningful projects, envision a clean energy future, and to share project successes and challenges. The funding from DOE was a catalyst for growth, has created opportunities for learning and knowledge sharing, and has led to the development of cost saving energy projects. Most importantly, the DOE project allowed energy champions around the region to share their knowledge, experiences, and expertise to create place-based solutions and has forged inter-Tribal relationships that will continue to be an asset for years to come. Through information exchange that occurred at out IAEN annual meetings and other events, this technical assistance grant award has spurred a spinoff project that is focused on establishing a collaborative of independent utilities that work together to solve energy problems and share services to operate and maintain their electric utilities. We have indentified at least 10 and possibly 12 communities that are interested in collaborating in managing their utilities to reduce costs and increase reliability. As well, by identifying and supporting Community Energy Champions in the Interior villages and adding capacity to the TCC Energy Program, we were able to create actionable community energy plans, develop specific projects, and increase local capacity, skills, and literacy around clean energy initiatives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Safeguards by Design Table Top Exercises Final Report (FY 2023)

This University Engagement project challenged engineering students at universities, that do not have bachelor’s degree programs in nuclear engineering but do have research reactors and some nuclear engineering coursework, to develop capacity in Safeguards by Design concepts through the application of Tabletop Exercises. This University Engagement project was part of the U. S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, Office of International Nuclear Safeguards, Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI), Human Capital Development (HCD): University Engagement Program. This program exposed university students with Mechanical Engineering majors and Nuclear Engineering minors to the concepts of international nuclear safeguards. In FY22, three teams at the University of Rhode Island and two teams at the University of Texas Austin participated in researching, designing, building, and testing projects to support international nuclear safeguards measurements or verification. The projects involved engaging in activities at the university’s research reactors. All the projects engaged students with prototyping a design and/or tool for application at the Universities’ reactor. However, for FY23, the direction of the HCD project had changed to implementing a Tabletop Exercise in Safeguards by Design (SBD). A Tabletop Exercise was not executed during FY23, but relationships with both Universities was maintained and how to integrate the exercise into the curriculum of both programs was determined.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Public Health Response and Medical Management of Internal Contamination in Past Radiological or Nuclear Incidents: A Review

Following a radiological or nuclear emergency, workers, responders and the public may be internally contaminated with radionuclides. Screening, monitoring and assessing any internal contamination and providing necessary medical treatment, especially when a large number of individuals are involved, is challenging. Experience gained and lessons learned from the management of previous incidents would help to identify gaps in knowledge and capabilities on preparedness for and response to radiation emergencies. In this paper, eight largescale and five workplace radiological and nuclear incidents are reviewed cross 14 technical areas, under the broader topics of emergency preparedness, emergency response and recovery processes. The review findings suggest that 1) new strategies, algorithms and technologies are explored for rapid screening of large populations; 2) exposure assessment and dose estimation in emergency response and dose reconstruction in recovery process are supported by complementary sources of information, including ‘citizen science’; 3) surge capacity for monitoring and dose assessment is coordinated through national and international laboratory networks; 4) evidence-based guidelines for medical management and follow-up of internal contamination are urgently needed; 5) mechanisms for international and regional access to medical countermeasures are investigated and implemented; 6) long-term health and medical follow up programs are designed and justified; and 7) capabilities and capacity developed for emergency response are sustained through adequate resource allocation, routine nonemergency use of technical skills in regular exercises, training, and continuous improvement.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Biologically Cooling the Planet: A BRISK Approach that Directly Connects the Ground to Deep Space

Climate change is a grave threat to our ability to thrive and prosper on Earth. Accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere stifle the Earth’s ability to cool itself, which leads to a rise of the average temperature – Global warming. The planetary cooling is exclusively radiative – thermal radiation escapes into cold outer space via a flux of photons at the low-infrared range. The penetration of these photons through Earth’s atmosphere is dictated by atmospheric transparency, which, serendipitously possesses a window centered around the peak of the Plank spectrum for a black body at about room temperature – the average temperature of Earth. This window spanning about 8 --13 μm wavelengths allows most of the photons in this range to escape into the Cosmos carrying our planet’s heat away. The efficiency of this outer heat flux – and thus planet’s cooling ability – can be controlled via emissivity – a function of wavelength which multiplies the fundamental Plank spectrum of a black body at a given temperature. In the presence of non-trivial atmospheric transparency it can be shown that radiative cooling can be enhanced with properly “designed” emissivity function. For the last 100 years, or so, people have been looking into ways to engineer materials to take advantage of such enhancement for various cooling applications, from making ice to cool clothes, and substantial progress has been achieved, including cooling in direct sunlight. The beauty if this approach is that it is entirely passive – no energy input is required. The objective of this project was to investigate whether biological systems possess such advanced cooling capacity, developed via millennia of evolution, to enhance plant’s adaptation to a hot environment, to increase cooling capability, and possibly modulate spectral emissivities on short or long time scales. We wanted to know if BRISK (Biological Radiative Sky Cooling) occurs and to what extent. It is unknown whether biological systems can perform this "spectral redistribution." It is reasonable to expect, however, that they might: in particular, desert plants under high heat stress and arid conditions might evolve this mechanism in order to maintain a tolerable internal temperature. Our intended approach was twofold: extensive literature search and supporting experimental investigations on select plants. We obtained the answers from the former, while the latter proved to be more complicated to perform with required accuracy in the timespan/budget of a small seedling project. After one year of research, we concluded that among the plant species studied there seem to be no evidence of BRISK, but it’s not the end of the story. Our planet’s biosphere is immense, and the evolution is continuing. With our preliminary results and a better understanding of what to look for further discoveries await, considering the accelerated pace of infrared imaging and spectroscopy technology development, from microscopic to satellite-based studies of plants and canopies. In the end, Earth’s energy balance is ultimately tied to radiative cooling so that further investigation into this problem is directly tied to solving the Climate Change challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mapping Support for Targeted Critical Minerals Exploration and Extraction

The United States’ dependency on imported minerals poses significant risks to economic stability and national security due to potential supply disruptions. Recognizing the strategic importance of critical minerals, the Department of Energy (DOE) emphasizes the need for a secure and resilient supply chain to support emissions reduction, technology development, and capitalization on clean energy opportunities. The DOE’s Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains (MESC), in collaboration with the Office of Policy (OP), addresses these vulnerabilities by focusing on upstream domestic critical minerals production, balancing extraction with social and environmental goals, including conservation, environmental justice, and respect for Tribal sovereignty. This report showcases a collaborative effort involving Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to map mineral development potential along with key social and environmental datasets. A geographical information system (GIS)-based web map application was developed as a preliminary tool for environmental analysis, integrating 158 geospatial data layers such as critical habitat, land ownership, economic indicators, and environmental concerns. Data were sourced from agencies like the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and USGS and processed using GIS technology to enhance visualization and analysis. The proposed analysis framework categorizes areas into high, mid, and low concern based on withdrawn lands, special status species, the Economic Development Capacity Index (EDCI) Mining Composite Index, and the Climate and Economic Justice Screening Tool (CEJST). While the application provides broad visualizations, it is not a substitute for detailed environmental reviews required under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). Users must conduct further analyses and engage with tribal entities and other stakeholders for comprehensive planning. A case study of the Idaho Cobalt Belt (ICB) in Lemhi County, Idaho, has been provided in the report to illustrate the tool's practical use. This report introduces a GIS application and framework to support stakeholders in identifying and prioritizing areas for critical mineral exploration, promoting secure supply chains, and advancing the nation's energy independence through responsible resource stewardship.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy Storage Analysis

This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic characterization of energy storage and exible low carbon power generation technologies that can shift energy across days, weeks, or months to balance daily, weekly, and seasonal disparities in supply and demand. Energy storage technologies evaluated here include pumped hydropower storage (PHS), adiabatic and diabatic compressed air energy storage (CAES), vanadium redox flow batteries (VRBs), pumped thermal energy storage (P-TES), and renewably produced hydrogen stored in either geologic formations or underground pipes with re-electrification via combustion turbines in combined cycles, stationary proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells, or the novel use of PEM fuel cells designed for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) which are expected to have shorter lives but also lower capital costs. We also evaluate flexible low-carbon power generation systems, including ethanol combustion in gas turbines and natural gas combustion with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). We estimate current costs with literature data, use learning rates to characterize future costs, and develop capacity factors calibrated to an 85% renewables grid to calculate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of each technology. Results illustrate that at the 12-hour storage duration, PHS and CAES have the lowest LCOE with current costs, and VRBs become competitive if future costs are achieved. At the 120-hour storage duration, hydrogen systems with geologic storage and natural gas with CCS achieve the lowest LCOE in both current and future capital cost scenarios. In particular, the new configuration of HDV-PEM fuel cells with hydrogen storage in geologic formations evaluated here could lower the LCOE by 22-27% compared to stationary fuel cell systems typically evaluated and might help enable very high (>80%) renewable energy electric power systems. P-TES and hydrogen stored in underground pipes are the least-cost options at the 120-hour storage duration rating that do not require some form of geologic storage. Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo analysis illustrate that the general trends seen in this study are valid for a wide range of capacity factors and future cost scenarios. The study also illustrates that coproducing and selling hydrogen to other markets could reduce the LCOE of hydrogen systems by up to 39%.

carbon capture and sequestration↗

Battery500 Consortium: Development of High Capacity Cathodes and Robust Solid Electrolytes

As the world have witnessed the tremendous development in portable electronic devices as well as electric vehicles, the current generation lithium-ion battery is unlikely to satisfy the bourgeon of market and the demand of the customers. A next generation battery, with cell energy density higher than 500 Wh kg -1 , needs to be developed to meet the growth of the industry. With its high theoretical capacity (3,860 mAh g -1 , or 2,061 mAh cm -3 ) and low electrochemical potential (–3.04 V versus the standard hydrogen electrode), lithium metal has been regarded as the ideal candidate for the next generation battery anode. In fact, Lithium metal anode is irreplaceable for Lithium-Sulfur chemistry. However, the continuous formation of inactive Li, which eventually leads the loss of reversible capacity of the cell, has prevented lithium metal to be used as anode in commercial rechargeable cells. The ultimate goal of the project is to propose a pathway to enable Li metal battery for stable cycling at 99.9% of Coulombic efficiency with energy density higher than 500 Wh kg -1 . A variety of advanced characterization tools, electrolyte systems, 3D current collectors and failure analysis methodologies have been developed throughout the project during the past 5 years. The UCSD effort is carried out by the groups of Ping Liu and Shirley Meng.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Development of High Capacity Energy Storage Materials

Hydrogen fuel cells have the potential to offer energy and power density advantages over lithium ion batteries in automotive and portable power applications when paired with an appropriate hydrogen storage system. Development of the ideal hydrogen storage material has been immensely sought after but plagued by limitations present in each type of material. These limitations typically include nonidealistic operational temperatures, low capacities, excessive costs, lack of reversibility, or evolution of impurities which irreversibly damage fuel cell performance. Many complex metal hydrides possess suitable hydrogen capacities but unfortunately suffer from impurity release. In order to address this problem, our team has explored in-situ catalyst doping of alkali metal amides to demonstrate methodologies to reduce ammonia release. The incorporation of iridium metal in lithium amide significantly reduces the ammonia release and decomposes the ammonia to provide additional hydrogen. Furthermore, we demonstrate, for the first time, high resistance of low temperature fuel cells to ammonia in comparison with typical proton exchange membrane fuel cells. The utilization of these two approaches in tandem provides a novel pathway for the development and implementation of high capacity energy storage materials for fuel cell applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Bench-Scale Development of Promoted High-Capacity Structured Sorbents (Final Technical Report)

The project objective was to develop high-capacity structured sorbent capable of achieving low CO 2 removal from air. The sorbent framework consists of an amine-functionalized onto hydrophobic polymer backbone with an added promoter. The functionalized amine provides high CO 2 capacity and adsorption rates and the polymer backbone to reduce water uptake. For the sorbent development, multiple functionalized amines and promoters were assessed to select a candidate that achieved high CO 2 capacity, high adsorption rate, and high stability. A sorbent-coated filter design was selected as the structured sorbent, which provides high sorbent loading capacity and contains an electrically conductive nonwoven filter substrate that can be Joule-heated to provide efficient utilization of available electricity for sorbent regeneration. A commercial partner operated a pilot filter manufacturing line to produce the filter panels coated with the developed sorbent. A 1 kg CO 2 /day bench unit was designed and fabricated to test the structured filter sorbent. The key achievements from the structured sorbent development activity were demonstrating that existing filter industrial-scale processes can be used for manufacturing Susteon’s structured sorbent and completing a proof-of-concept demonstration of the commercially manufactured structured sorbent filters for CO 2 capture from air with direct, Joule-heated regeneration. A techno-economic assessment with sensitivity analysis was conducted on a 100,000 TPY facility with 85% operating capacity. Through sorbent optimization and process design improvements, it is estimated that the cost of capture was reduced from $\$$349/tCO 2 to $\$$241/tCO 2 . The TEA projects further reductions to $165/tCO 2 through enhancements in CO 2 adsorption rate and sorbent capacity and reducing manufacturing and scale up risks. A life cycle analysis was conducted on the same 100,000 TPY facility and confirmed that the facility’s electricity demand drives its greenhouse gas impact. It was determined that electricity supplied through the current grid mix would result in net-positive CO 2 emissions and that achieving net-negative emissions is only possible by powering the system with renewable electricity or fossil fuel sources equipped with carbon capture and sequestration.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Development of High-Capacity Cathodes and Robust Solid Electrolytes

In Phase 1, the University of Texas at Austin explored many methods of cathode design, synthesis, and modification, while also developing an understanding of the relationships among the cathode, anode, and electrolyte. Some of the major accomplishments are highlighted in this report.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Using concentrating-solar-power plants as economic carbon-free capacity resources

Deep decarbonization of electricity systems raises concerns about the need for generating capacity that can maintain reliable energy supply. Given this concern, we explore the ability of concentrating-solar-power plants with thermal energy storage to provide a carbon-free source of such capacity. We develop an approach to assessing the capacity contribution of concentrating-solar-power plants that considers future systems. Such considerations are important, because of potential differences in net-load patterns compared to today (e.g., due to higher renewable-energy penetrations). Using historical data spanning an 18-year period, we demonstrate that concentrating-solar-power plants with thermal energy storage can provide this necessary capacity with little impact on their financial viability. We examine the impact of myopic decisions and imperfect foresight of future system conditions on the operation of concentrating-solar-power plants and the resultant impact on their capacity contributions. We find that imperfect foresight can have limited impacts on such a use of concentrating-solar-power plants, so long as proper forecasting techniques are developed and used. Overall, our work shows that concentrating-solar-power plants with thermal energy storage may have a role to play in delivering reliable electricity supply in a decarbonized energy system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Addressing Regulatory Challenges to Tribal Solar Deployment

This project, Addressing Regulatory Challenges to Tribal Solar Deployment, seeks to unlock some of this potential by bringing Tribal, regulatory, utility, and other stakeholders together to articulate key barriers to Tribal solar adoption and develop replicable solutions. By increasing institutional capacity and developing frameworks, trainings, and a technical document repository for regulatory bodies, utilities, and Tribes, this project can help expand an emerging market.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗