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Results for “capacity expansion model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2027

From zonal to nodal capacity expansion planning: Spatial aggregation impacts on a realistic test-case

Solving power system capacity expansion planning (CEP) problems at realistic spatial resolutions is computationally challenging. Thus, a common practice is to solve CEP over zonal models with low spatial resolution rather than over full-scale nodal power networks. Due to improvements in solving large-scale stochastic mixed integer programs, these computational limitations are becoming less relevant, and the assumption that zonal models are realistic and useful approximations of nodal CEP is worth revisiting. Here, this work is the first to conduct a systematic computational study on the assumption that spatial aggregation can reasonably be used for ISO-scale CEP. By considering a realistic, large-scale test network based on the state of California with over 8000 buses, we find that well-designed small spatial aggregations can yield good approximations but that coarser zonal models may result in large distortions of investment decisions, e.g., capacity under-investment of up to 41% for the lowest resolution model considered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

India Power Sector Reliability Analysis [Slides]

The objective of the study is to assess pathways for India to achieve its 2070 power sector goals reliably and cost-effectively by considering various supply- and demand-side factors to support planning by national stakeholders including the Central Electricity Authority (CEA).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring Climate and Water Risk across the Bulk Power System

As climate impacts increase and power systems transition to renewables, planners and operators need insights into climate risks to power generation and infrastructure to ensure reliable decision-making in the short and long-term. We present a standardized, consistent mechanism for utilities and system operators to evaluate the climate- and water-related risks of their current and future grid assets. Using a risk-based approach on the combined outcomes of high-fidelity climate drivers together with water and power system models, we examine the temperature and water availability impacts within the contiguous United States to power system assets at the water basin level in three different time periods and report resulting outcomes on lost capacity across different expansion scenarios and climate models. The results indicate that air temperature has the highest effect on derating. Changes in streamflow do not have a large impact on generation capacity at the national level. Electric sector buildout scenarios each have a unique regional risk profile, depending on the technology mix and total capacity, although risks from high temperatures are significant for both traditional and renewable energy generation. Stakeholders can use this approach to monitor effects of generation capacity losses and potential impacts as climate, generation mix, and infrastructure change.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Theoretical design and performance of three-dimensional, pillared FeS 2 cathodes

Three-dimensional (3D) electrode design can provide improved capacities and rate capabilities over conventional two-dimensional electrodes by enhancing electrical and ionic transport. Here, expanding upon our previous modeling efforts for conversion chemistry lithium-ion batteries, we develop a pseudo-four-dimensional (P4D) approach that is subsequently used to investigate the design of a pillared FeS 2 electrode. The model considers transport in three dimensions with an additional “fourth” dimension corresponding to the solid-state lithium transport within the active material particles. Additionally, we allow for expansion of the active material during the conversion reaction to understand how internal stresses impact the electrochemical performance of the cell. By optimizing the model with respect to areal capacity, we are able to predict areal capacities up to 16.8 mAh/cm 2 for an areal current density of 1.78 mA/cm 2 and a 103% improvement for the three-dimensional electrodes over planar electrodes of equal volume. Despite the promising results, our simulations suggest that 3D design may be difficult for conversion cathode materials due to the large internal stresses that arise during conversion. Nevertheless, the model is robust and adaptable to other materials that may be more suitable for 3D electrodes due to a lesser change in volume during discharge.

Conversion cathode materials↗
DOE OSTI2026

FY26 Progress on Demonstration of a Multiphysics Steady State Capability for Modeling Core Radial Expansion in SFRs

Under the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Program, an integrated multiphysics approach is being developed to model the core bowing phenomena important to liquid metal-cooled fast reactors. Core bowing is an important passive safety mechanism in liquid metal-cooled fast reactors and involves multiphysics effects including radiation transport, fluid flow, heat transfer, and mechanical response to temperature and flux gradients. This report summarizes recent progress on developing a multiphysics, MOOSE-based workflow to predict core bowing and associated reactivity feedback. Significant new capabilities in the reactor physics code Griffin - sodium backfill and pin power reconstruction for deformed geometries - were applied in this effort. This year’s work included verification, code comparisons, sensitivity studies, and coupled demonstrations that advance the state of MOOSE-based core bowing workflow. Griffin’s sodium backfill capability was verified by demonstrating that its automated treatment of geometry expansion and material-density updates reproduces manual calculations exactly, confirming solid mass conservation and proper coolant backfilling in expanded geometries. Reconstructed pin powers were compared for Griffin’s ductheterogeneous and ring-heterogeneous treatments in single-, seven-, and nineteen-assembly cases, with best agreement observed in lower-leakage configurations and the duct-heterogeneous approach offering substantially lower computational cost. Thermal-hydraulic sensitivity sensitivities showed that MOOSE SCM, SAM, and CFD are expected to produce similar deformation predictions despite variances in their temperature predictions, and that explicit treatment of inter-assembly flow becomes increasingly important as gap flow rate increases. Finally, coupled demonstrations on small multi-assembly configurations using Griffin, MOOSE Solid Mechanics, MOOSE SCM, and Heat Conduction produced physically consistent reactivity feedback from thermal expansion and bowing. The coupled demonstrations simulated grid plate expansion as well as resultant core bowing at full power conditions. Simplifications were made in current workflow, namely the assumption of instantaneous full power conditions following hot zero power, and pre-expanding the Griffin geometry axially due to lack of an axial fuel pin expansion model and temperature feedback to Griffin.

Wozniak, Nicholas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamically informed priors for uncertainty propagation in first-principles statistical mechanics

Here, this work demonstrates how first-principles statistical mechanics approaches within a Bayesian framework can quantify and propagate uncertainties to downstream thermodynamic calculations. To address the issue of Bayesian prior selection, knowledge of 0 K ground states in the material system of interest is incorporated into the prior. The effectiveness of this framework is shown by creating a phase diagram for the fcc zirconium nitride system, including confidence intervals on order-disorder transition temperatures.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Principles Study of Aluminum Doped Polycrystalline Silicon as a Potential Anode Candidate in Li‐ion Batteries

Addressing sustainable energy storage remains crucial for transitioning to renewable sources. While Li‐ion batteries have made significant contributions, enhancing their capacity through alternative materials remains a key challenge. Micro‐sized silicon is a promising anode material due to its tenfold higher theoretical capacity compared to conventional graphite. However, its substantial volumetric expansion during cycling impedes practical application due to mechanical failure and rapid capacity fading. A novel approach is proposed to mitigate this issue by incorporating trace amounts of aluminum into the micro‐sized silicon electrode using ball milling. Density functional theory (DFT) is employed to establish a theoretical framework elucidating how grain boundary sliding, a key mechanism involved in preventing mechanical failure is facilitated by the presence of trace aluminum at grain boundaries. This, in turn, reduces stress accumulation within the material, reducing the likelihood of failure. To validate the theoretical predictions, capacity retention experiments are conducted on undoped and Al‐doped micro‐sized silicon samples. In conclusion, the results demonstrate significantly reduced capacity fading in the doped sample, corroborating the theoretical framework and showcasing the potential of aluminum doping for improved Li‐ion battery performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Anomalous lattice expansion of bcc Ta in helium-loaded diamond anvil cells

Anomalous lattice expansion of bcc Ta is observed in helium-loaded diamond anvil cell (DAC) experiments near 6 GPa and above 400 K, while co-loaded W, Mo, and Au exhibit normal thermal expansion. The Ta volume expansion increases with temperature, reaching ~14% near 650 K before plateauing, and is largely retained after recovery to ambient conditions. Time-resolved measurements at 500 K reveal progressive expansion over several hours, consistent with gradual, thermally activated He incorporation. The largely retained expansion during subsequent cooling and holding at 400 K indicates that the incorporated He is predominantly kinetically trapped. The data reveal two distinct regimes: below ~550 K, modest and spatially uniform expansion consistent with interstitial He trapping at isolated, randomly distributed vacancies; above ~550 K, He-vacancy cluster growth producing dramatically larger expansion, peak broadening, and a core–shell microstructure revealed by micron-resolution X-ray diffraction mapping. These results demonstrate that He is not always a passive pressure medium in DAC experiments and reveal a previously unrecognized regime of He-mediated lattice modification in Ta, complementing conventional ion-implantation studies relevant to nuclear and fusion structural materials.

Diamond anvil cell↗
DOE OSTI2026

Particle production by time-varying dark energy and the end of cosmic expansion

We consider various possible consequences of time-varying dark energy due to a quintessence scalar field whose energy density is partially converted to particles as the field evolves down its potential. This particle production acts as a source of thermal friction on the field that can make it difficult to distinguish whether dark energy is due to a radiating field rolling down a steep potential, a purely self-interacting field moving down a flatter potential, or a cosmological constant. By reducing the acceleration of the scalar field, thermal friction increases the amount of accelerated expansion and can cause a sizable bump in the quintessence equation of state. We take special interest in the case where a steep potential rapidly changes from positive to negative as the field evolves, resulting in the end of cosmic expansion and the beginning of contraction. Even in this case, we find that thermal friction lengthens the period of accelerated expansion and consequently delays the end of cosmic expansion, making it challenging to detect the impending transition to contraction using conventional cosmological tests. However, particle production can also provide alternative avenues for detection by generating a background of thermal dark radiation, partly comprised of neutrinos or other particles, whose energy density exceeds the remnant photon energy density.

cosmological neutrinos↗
DOE OSTI2025

CASM Monte Carlo: Calculations of the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of complex multicomponent crystals

Monte Carlo techniques play a central role in statistical mechanics approaches that connect macroscopic thermodynamic and kinetic properties to the electronic structure of a material. This paper describes the implementation of Monte Carlo techniques for the study of multicomponent crystalline materials within the Clusters Approach to Statistical Mechanics (CASM) software suite, and demonstrates their use in model systems to calculate free energies and kinetic coefficients, study phase transitions, and construct phase diagrams from first principles. Many crystal structures are complex, with multiple sublattices occupied by differing sets of chemical species, along with the presence of vacancies or interstitial species. This imposes constraints on concentration variables, the form of thermodynamic potentials, and the values of kinetic transport coefficients. The framework used by CASM to formulate thermodynamic potentials and kinetic transport coefficients accounting for arbitrarily complex crystal structures is presented and demonstrated with examples of increasing complexity. Additionally, an overview of the capabilities of the CASM software specific to Monte Carlo methods is given, and a new CASM software package is introduced, casm-flow, which helps automate the setup, submission, management, and analysis of Monte Carlo simulations.

Cluster expansion↗
DOE OSTI2026

Atomic faulting drives exceptional toughness in low thermal expansion chromium alloys

Endowing functional properties with mechanical responses in traditional metals has been a frontier topic, akin to transforming base metal into gold. Chromium and its alloys, with their functional deficiencies and limited ductility, serve as typical examples. Herein, we report a Cr96Fe4Ge1.3B1 alloy that unifies low thermal expansion (LTE, αl = 1.79 × 10-6 K-1, 200 − 315 K) with exceptional toughness (240.2 J·cm-3). The enhancement in mechanical responses is primarily attributed to layered Cr2B intermetallic precipitates, which ameliorate interfacial cohesion and simultaneously refine the grain structure. The weakened interlayer interactions within the Cr-B layers facilitate the nucleation and movement of numerous tiny stacking faults in precipitates, efficiently alleviating strain energy and resulting in marked work-hardening ability. Additionally, antiferromagnetic fluctuations in the BCC matrix contribute to the unique LTE behavior. This paves the way for the design of high-performance alloys featuring layered-symmetry precipitates.

Yu, Chengyi [University of Science and Technology ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Paleotribological models using preserved fossil tissue properties reveal functional significance of Eurasian mammoth dental evolution

Eurasian mammoths (Mammuthus) underwent substantial modifications in molar morphology as later-diverging species evolved progressively thinner enamel and increased enamel crest complexity. These features have been hypothesized to reduce whole-tooth wear and extend dental longevity as increasingly graze-dominated diets evolved within the lineage. This hypothesis has yet to be directly tested. Here, in this study, we developed an in-silico wear model using experimentally derived wear rates from fossil and extant proboscidean dental tissues. The models revealed that shifts in tissue topology do not affect whole-tooth wear rate, as inverse trends in lamellar frequency and enamel thickness preserve a consistent surface enamel area fraction; the determining factor of wear. Rather, topological shifts produce a wear-emergent secondary occlusal surface with greater numbers of triturating crests that create a regular, low-relief, file-like shearing pavement. These changes in occlusal architecture likely directly impacted the mastication capacity of Mammuthus dentitions, facilitating their dietary expansion to incorporate fibrous, lower-nutrient graze.

Dental wear↗
DOE OSTI2025

Crystal Growth Scale-Up and Stability of RbSr 2 X 5 :Eu Scintillators

The discovery and development of new scintillation materials support national security needs. In these applications, large volumes of scintillator crystals are needed to achieve efficient screening for contraband. Therefore, one important step in the discovery of new scintillator compositions is testing their feasibility for scale-up and their stability. In this work, high-quality Ø22 mm crystals of two new scintillators RbSr 2 Br 5 :Eu and RbSr 2 I 5 :Eu were grown via the Vertical Bridgman method, and their scintillation properties were characterized. Here, the Ø22 mm RbSr 2 I 5 :Eu crystals could be grown with fast translation rates up to 3.5 mm/h. Both RbSr 2 Br 5 :Eu and RbSr 2 I 5 :Eu had high scintillation performance, including light yields of 46,000 and 61,000 ph/MeV, respectively, for Ø22 × 35 mm crystals. Additionally, properties related to physical stability were investigated, including the coefficients of thermal expansion via high-temperature X-ray diffraction (HTXRD) as well as moisture sensitivity. HTXRD confirmed the absence of solid–solid phase transitions and showed that RbSr 2 Br 5 had minimal thermal expansion anisotropy compared to RbSr 2 I 5 and some other inorganic metal halide scintillators, which favors the growth of large-sized crystals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photosynthetic capacity is reduced by warming but unaffected by elevated CO2 in seedlings of five boreal tree species

Abstract Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations fuel global warming, with boreal regions warming at a faster rate than many other areas. Boreal forests are an important component of the global carbon cycle, yet we have little data on photosynthetic responses of boreal trees to elevated CO2 (EC) and warming. We grew seedlings of 5 widespread North American boreal tree species (from Betula, Larix, Picea, and Pinus) under current (410 ppm) or elevated (750 ppm) CO2 and either ambient (+0 °C) or increased (+4 °C or +8 °C) temperature, then measured photosynthetic traits over a range of leaf temperatures. Our results were generally consistent across species: photosynthetic capacity (maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation, Vcmax, and electron transport, Jmax) was unaffected by EC but decreased under +8 °C warming. Accordingly, net photosynthesis measured at the growth CO2 concentration (Agrowth) was reduced under warming and increased under EC. The thermal optimum for Agrowth (ToptA) increased by ∼1.8 °C with EC but increased with warming in only two species. In contrast, the activation energies and thermal optima for Vcmax and Jmax, which are used to estimate photosynthesis in Earth System Models, were unaffected by growth environment. There were a few interactions between growth, CO2, and warming. These results suggest increased photosynthesis of widespread boreal tree species under EC may be offset by future reductions in photosynthetic capacity related to warming. We also show that the temperature sensitivities of parameters used to estimate global photosynthesis in large-scale models are generally unaffected by simulated climate change in these species.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗