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Improving NASA GEOS Atmospheric CO2 Simulations by Calibrating CASA Surface Fluxes with an Empirical Sink

With the adoption of the Paris climate accord, efforts to monitor and understand both anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks are increasing across the world. Given their low latency and global coverage, satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are poised to make important contributions to this field. The combination of satellite data and high resolution global models can be used to monitor changes in carbon fluxes and to evaluate the consistency of nationally reported emissions estimates in support of multiple stakeholder communities. However, a consistent challenge to such work has been the high latency of surface carbon flux estimates, which are often not available for a year or more. This presentation describes the construction of surface carbon flux estimates meant to improve the near real time simulation of atmospheric CO2 with NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The surface flux estimates begin with a collection of bottom-up fluxes which incorporate satellite measurements in their construction, e.g. vegetation indices in the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and nighttime lights in the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). From there, we take the additional step of using an empirical sink to calibrate terrestrial net biospheric exchange (NBE) to estimated values from atmospheric inversion systems. This approach removes a known, systematic bias in predicted atmospheric mixing ratios. Using these fluxes in a free running simulation, the model is able to reproduce in situ measurements with the same skill as when it uses gridded fluxes from a flux inversion system. Using these fluxes as a prior in an assimilation system, e.g. one incorporating retrievals of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), allows the analysis to capture variability in CO2 on scales that would be missed otherwise. This approach supports NASA's capability to forecast atmospheric CO2 up to two weeks in advance by leveraging a GEOS system used to produce quasi-operational weather analyses and forecasts, providing a valuable new tool to the carbon monitoring research and applications communities.

Weir, B.↗

Chemical Data Assimilation Estimates of Continental US Ozone and Nitrogen Budgets during INTEX-A

Global ozone analyses, based on assimilation of stratospheric profile and ozone column measurements, and NOy predictions from the Real-time Air Quality Modeling System (RAQMS) are used to estimate the ozone and NOy budget over the Continental US during the July-August 2004 Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-North America (INTEX-A). Comparison with aircraft, satellite, surface, and ozonesonde measurements collected during the INTEX-A show that RAQMS captures the main features of the global and Continental US distribution of tropospheric ozone, carbon monoxide, and NOy with reasonable fidelity. Assimilation of stratospheric profile and column ozone measurements is shown to have a positive impact on the RAQMS upper tropospheric/lower stratosphere ozone analyses, particularly during the period when SAGE III limb scattering measurements were available. Eulerian ozone and NOy budgets during INTEX-A show that the majority of the Continental US export occurs in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere poleward of the tropopause break, a consequence of convergence of tropospheric and stratospheric air in this region. Continental US photochemically produced ozone was found to be a minor component of the total ozone export, which was dominated by stratospheric ozone during INTEX-A. The unusually low photochemical ozone export is attributed to anomalously cold surface temperatures during the latter half of the INTEX-A mission, which resulted in net ozone loss during the first 2 weeks of August. Eulerian NOy budgets are shown to be very consistent with previously published estimates. The NOy export efficiency was estimated to be 24 percent, with NOx+PAN accounting for 54 percent of the total NOy export during INTEX-A.

Pierce, Robert B.↗

Comparison of chemical lateral boundary conditions for air quality predictions over the contiguous United States during pollutant intrusion events

The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) operated in U.S.’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides the operational forecast guidance for ozone and fine particulate matters with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5μm (PM2.5) over the contiguous 48 U.S. states (CONUS) using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The existing NAQFC uses climatological chemical lateral boundary conditions ( CLBCs), which cannot capture pollutant intrusion events originating outside of the model domain. In this study, we developed a model framework to use dynamic CLBCs from the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS) to drive NAQFC. A mapping of the GEOS chemical species to the CMAQ’s Carbon Bond 5 (CB05)-Aero6 species was developed. The utilization of the GEOS dynamic CLBCs in NAQFC showed the best overall performance in simulating the surface observations during the Saharan dust intrusion and Canadian wildfire events in summer 2015.The simulated PM2.5 was improved from 0.18 to 0.37 and the mean bias was reduced from -6.74 μg/m3 to -2.96 μg/m3 over CONUS. Although the effect of CLBCs on the PM2.5 correlation was mainly near the inflow boundary, its impact on the background concentrations reached further inside the domain. The CLBCs could affect background ozone concentrations through the inflows of ozone itself and its precursors, such as CO. It was further found that the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) from satellite retrievals correlated well with the column CO and elemental carbon from GEOS. The satellite-derived AOT CLBCs generally improved the model performance for the wildfire intrusion events during a summer 2018 case study, and demonstrated how satellite observations of atmospheric composition could be used as an alternative method to capture the air quality effects of intrusions when the global model CLBCs, such as GEOS CLBCs, are not available.

Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model↗

Evaluation of Low-Energy Hydrogen Separation Method Using Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs) for Closed-Loop ECLSS Air Revitalization (CLEAR)

The State-of-the-Art (SOA) air revitalization architecture onboard the International Space Station (ISS) recovered approximately 50% of the oxygen (O 2 ) from metabolic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) via the Sabatier process from 2011 to 2017. O 2 recovery is currently constrained by the limited availability of reactant hydrogen (H 2 ) preventing complete conversion of CO 2 to H 2 O. Increasing O 2 recovery within Closed-Loop ECLSS is essential to reducing resupply mass for long-duration manned missions; specifically focusing on water (H 2 O) which supplies H 2 for Sabatier via water electrolysis. Past ground test endeavors at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have attempted to recover H 2 from Sabatier-produced CH 4 using technologies such as carbon vapor deposition (CVD) and plasma pyrolysis. The byproducts of these technologies can act as a catalyst poison or reactor deadload to the Sabatier reactor. Hydrogen separation techniques must be utilized to maintain the Sabatier catalyst during gas recycling and must be scalable, non-energy intensive, and safe to operate in a habitation setting. Research indicated that metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) could meet these criteria and were tested for their capability to capture the various carbon-based gaseous products of CVD and plasma pyrolysis such as acetylene (C 2 H 2 ), ethylene (C 2 H 4 ), ethane (C 2 H 6 ), and carbon monoxide (CO) which would purify the hydrogen gas stream passing through the MOF. A sub-scale adsorption column was developed by Marshall Space Flight Center to test three MOF candidates against a synthetic gas mixture comprised of process-relevant carbonous gases and hydrogen to evaluate the separation capability of the MOFs. The results of the hydrogen separation capability, isothermal desorption capability, and demonstrated cyclic reuse of the MOF are presented in this paper.

Kagen Crawford↗

The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar Laser Transmitter

The Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar, is an Earth Science remote sensing instrument aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM). Its core mission is to measure the global carbon balance of Earth's forests by using a set of three solid state laser transmitters in a multibeam waveform capture lidar technique. GEDI's laser transmitters and precision optical system transmits over 3.4 million laser pulses to the Earth every hour, each pulse producing an individual 3-D biomass column measurement. To enable a successful two-year mission, the lasers had to be reliable, highly repeatable in performance with each measurement power cycle, and designed with minimal part count for reduced manufacture complexity and cost. These transmitters are in-house products; developed, constructed, qualified, and fully integrated into the GEDI instrument at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. We will present the lasers' path from initial design to flight operation, with emphasis on the major milestones, critical issues, and lessons learned. Full credit goes to the excellent team effort that led to the successful commissioning and initiation of full-time science operations in March 2019.

Coyle, D. Barry↗

Chemical abundance of comets

Observations of NH2, (OI) and molecular ion spectra in comets represent virtually all of the volatile fraction of a comet nucleus. Their study leads to the N2, NH3, H2O, CO2, CO content of the nucleus, and thus to important constraints on models of comet formation and chemical processing in the primitive solar nebula. The observations of Comet Halley provide the opportunity for the first comprehensive determination of the abundances in a comet nucleus. The carbon isotope abundance ratio 12 C/13 C = 65 plus or minus 8 has been determined for Comet Halley from resolved rotational line structure in the CN B-X (0,0) band. The ratio is approximately 30 pct lower than the solar system value, 89, indicating either an enhancement of 13CN or a depletion of 12CN in the comet. Scenarios consistent with the observed carbon isotope ratio are: (1) formation of the comet at the periphery of the solar nebula in a fractionation-enriched 13CN region, or hidden from 12CN enrichment sources, and (2) capture of an interestellar comet. Long-slit charge coupled device (CCD) spectra obtained at the time of the spacecraft encounter of Comet Halley have also been analyzed. Scale lengths, production rates and column densities of CH, CN, C2 and NH2 were determined.

Wyckoff, Susan↗

Investigating Drivers of Particulate Matter Pollution Over India and the Implications for Radiative Forcing With GEOS-Chem-TOMAS15

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations in India frequently exceed 100 μg/m 3 during fall and winter pollution episodes. We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional microphysics scheme with 15 size bins (TOMAS15) to assess PM 2.5 composition and impacts on radiation and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) during pollution episodes as compared to the seasonal (October-December) average. We conduct high resolution (0.25° × 0.3125°) nested-domain simulations over India for short-duration, high-PM2.5 episodes in the fall of 2015 and 2017. The simulations capture the magnitude and spatial patterns of pollution episodes measured by surface monitors (r PM2.5 = 0.69) although aerosol optical depth is underestimated. During the episodes, near-surface organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), and secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations increase from seasonal averages by up to 36, 7, and 7 μg/m 3 , respectively. Episodic aerosol increases enhance cooling by lowering the top-of-atmosphere clear-sky direct radiative effect (DRE TOA ) during the 2015 episode (−6 W/m 2 ), with a smaller impact during the 2017 episode (−1 W/m 2 ). Differences in DRE TOA reflect larger increases in scattering aerosols in the column during the 2015 episode (+17 mg/m 2 ) than in 2017 (+13 mg/m 2 ), while absorbing aerosol column enhancements are smaller (+3 mg/m2) in both years. Changes in shortwave radiation at the surface (SW sfc ) are spatially similar to DRE TOA and mostly negative during both episodes. CCN enhancements (0.2% supersaturation) during these episodes occur across the western Indo-Gangetic Plain, coincident with higher PM 2.5 concentrations. Changes in DRE TOA , SW sfc , and CCN during high-PM 2.5 episodes may have implications for crops, the hydrologic cycle, and surface temperature.

PM2.5↗

Two Air Quality Regimes in Total Column NO2 over the Gulf of Mexico in May 2019: Shipboard and Satellite Views

The Satellite Coastal and Oceanic Atmospheric Pollution Experiment (SCOAPE) cruise in the Gulf of Mexico was conducted in May 2019 by NASA and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to determine the feasibility of using satellite data to measure air quality in a region of concentrated oil and natural gas (ONG) operations. SCOAPE addressed both technological and scientific issues related to measuring NO2 columns over the Outer Continental Shelf. Featured were nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) instruments (Pandora, Teledyne API analyzer) at Cocodrie, LA (29.26°, -90.66°), and on the Research Vessel Point Sur operating off the Louisiana coast with measurements of ozone, carbon monoxide and volatile organic compounds (VOC). The findings: (1) All NO 2 observations revealed two atmospheric regimes over the Gulf, the first influenced by tropical air in 10-14 May, the second influenced by flow from urban areas on 15-17 May; (2) Comparisons of OMI v4 and TROPOMI v1.3 TC (total column) NO 2 data with shipboard Pandora NO 2 column observations averaged 13% agreement with the largest difference during 15-17 May (~20%). At Cocodrie, the satellite-Pandora agreement was ~5%. (3) Three new-model Pandora instruments displayed a TC NO 2 precision of 0.01 Dobson Units (~5%); (4) Regions of smaller, older natural gas operations showed high methane readings from leakage; elevated VOC were also detected. Neither satellite nor spectrometer captured the magnitude of ambient NO 2 variability near ONG platforms. Given an absence of regular air quality monitoring over the Gulf of Mexico, SCOAPE data constitute a baseline against which future observations can be compared.

Nitrogen dioxide↗

A Ground-Based Network for Improved Validation of Satellite Carbon Dioxide and Methane Observations Over the Eastern United States

Satellite observations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), notably carbon dioxide and methane, over the Eastern United States, are currently only validated indirectly and/or sporadically. There are only four existing routine, ground-based remote sensing locations in the United States suitable for validation of satellite GHG observations: Edwards and Pasadena, CA, Lamont, OK, and Park Falls, WI as part of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Among other efforts, e.g. the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) and EM27/SUN deployments led by the University of Toronto, the only sites west of the Mississippi River are Park Falls, WI and Toronto, ON. The only remaining validation tools, vicarious calibration and airborne campaigns, are sporadic in space and/or time and thus coincide with only a small subsample of available soundings and conditions. As a result, satellite GHG observations over the east coast of the United States, home to more than half of its population, lack a consistent, widespread means of validation. We describe an ongoing effort to position 8 EM27/SUN spectrometers along the Eastern Seaboard over the next two years. The goals of this effort are to improve both satellite validation and our understanding of human and natural influences on the carbon cycle of the Eastern US, the former enabling the latter. This work is intended to augment past, ongoing, and future inter-agency programs, e.g., the NIST Urban Testbed, routine aircraft and aircore sampling by NOAA, and NASA’s Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT)-America sub-orbital campaign, in particular by offering information on broader time and spatial scales than what is already available while maintaining the high-accuracy constraints of in situ data. We will present early analysis including siting considerations to capture local and/or background conditions and comparison to NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) modeling and assimilation systems. This includes a 40-day, 3-km horizontal resolution global simulation of early 2020 and a 50-km retrospective analysis of Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) observations over 2015-present. Both are valuable tools for analyzing expected and observed signals and are useful boundary conditions for yet higher-resolution studies.

Brad Weir↗

Hydrogen Cyanide in the Upper Troposphere: GEM-AQ Simulation and Comparison with ACE-FTS Observations

We investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of hydrogen cyanide (HCN) in the upper troposphere through numerical simulations and comparison with observations from a space-based instrument. To perform the simulations, we used the Global Environmental Multiscale Air Quality model (GEM-AQ), which is based on the threedimensional Gobal multiscale model developed by the Meteorological Service of Canada for operational weather forecasting. The model was run for the period 2004-2006 on a 1.5deg x 1.5deg global grid with 28 hybrid vertical levels from the surface up to 10 hPa. Objective analysis data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre were used to update the meteorological fields every 24 h. Fire emission fluxes of gas species were generated by using year-specific inventories of carbon emissions with 8-day temporal resolution from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED) version 2. The model output is compared with HCN profiles measured by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) instrument onboard the Canadian SCISAT-1 satellite. High values of up to a few ppbv are observed in the tropics in the Southern Hemisphere; the enhancement in HCN volume mixing ratios in the upper troposphere is most prominent in October. Low upper-tropospheric mixing ratios of less than 100 pptv are mostly recorded at middle and high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere in May-July. Mixing ratios in Northern Hemisphere peak in the boreal summer. The amplitude of the seasonal variation is less pronounced than in the Southern Hemisphere. The comparison with the satellite data shows that in the upper troposphere GEM-AQ perform7s well globally for all seasons, except at northern hi gh and middle latitudes in surnmer, where the model has a large negative bias, and in the tropics in winter and spring, where it exhibits large positive bias. This may reflect inaccurate emissions or possible inaccuracies in the emission profile. The model is able to explain most of the observed variability in the upper troposphere HCN field, includin g the interannual variations in the observed mixing ratio. A complementary comparison with daily total columns of HCN from two middle latitude ground-based stations in Northern Japan for the same simulation period shows that the model captures the observed seasonal variation and also points to an underestimation of model emissions in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer. The estimated average global emission equals 1.3 Tg N/yr. The average atmospheric burden is 0.53 Tg N, and the corresponding lifetime is 4.9 months.

Lupu, A.↗

AeroCom Phase III Multi-Model Evaluation of the Aerosol Life Cycle and Optical Properties Using Ground and Space-Based Remote Sensing as Well as Surface In Situ Observations

Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes. Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50 % decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2∕3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1. Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AODf, AODc), Ångström exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SCdry), and absorption (ACdry) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21 % ± 20 % (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from −37 % (MODIS-Terra) to −16 % (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients (R) between model and observation AOD records are generally high (R>0.75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatio-temporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AODc (∼ −45 % ± 25 %) than in fine AODf (∼ −15 % ± 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AODc bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AODc. Column AEs are underestimated by about 10 % ± 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. +140 % if observed AE < 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment. Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of −35 % ± 25 % and −20 % ± 18 % for SCdry and ACdry, respectively. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ACdry suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models. Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions. Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. −15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between −35 % and +10 %.

space-based remote sensing↗

Evaluation of a Compression-Loaded-Stitched-Multi-Bay Fuselage Panel With Barely Visible Impact Damage

The experimental results from a stitched VaRTM carbon-epoxy composite panel tested under uni-axial compression loading are presented along with nonlinear finite element analysis prediction of the response. The curved panel is divided by frames and stringers into six bays with a column of three bays along the compressive loading direction. The frames are supported at the frame ends to resist out-of-plane translation. Back-to-back strain gages are used to record the strain and displacement transducers were used to record the out-of-plane displacements. In addition a full-field-displacement measurement technique that utilizes a camera-based-stereo-vision system was used to record the displacements. The panel was loaded to 1.5 times the predicted initial buckling load (1st bay buckling load, P(sub er) from the nonlinear finite element analysis and then was removed from the test machine for impact testing. After impacting with 20 ft-lbs of energy using a spherical impactor to produce barely visible damage the panel was loaded in compression until failure. The buckling load of the first bay to buckle was 97% of the buckling load before impact. The stitching constrained the impact damage from growing during the loading to failure. Impact damage had very little overall effect on panel stiffness. Panel stiffness measured by the full-field-displacement technique indicated a 13% loss in stiffness after impact. The panel failed at 1.64 times the first panel buckling load. The barely visible impact damage did not grow noticeably as the panel failed by global instability due to stringer-web terminations at the frame locations. The predictions from the nonlinear analysis of the finite element modeling of the entire specimen were very effective in the capture of the initial buckling and global behavior of the panel. In addition, the prediction highlighted the weakness of the panel under compression due to stringer web terminations. Both the test results and the nonlinear predictions serve to reinforce the severe penalty in structural integrity caused by the low cost manufacturing technique to terminate the stringer webs, and demonstrates the importance of this type of sub-component testing and high fidelity failure analysis in the design of a composite fuselage.

Baker, Donald J.↗