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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Mitigating Catastrophic Forgetting in Deep Learning in a Streaming Setting Using Historical Summary

Recent advancements in scientific equipment and the adaptation of electronics and the Internet of Things (IoT) in our everyday lives resulted in large and complex data production at a high rate. Making meaningful and timely knowledge discovery at a modest cost from this big data is difficult for computing power and storage limitations. Training deep learning models incrementally in a streaming setting can help us with overcoming these limitations. However, in a well-known phenomenon named catastrophic forgetting, incrementally trained models increasingly perform poorly on the past data. To mitigate catastrophic forgetting in training in a streaming setting, we propose constructing a historical summary over time and use the summary with newly arrived data during incremental training. We propose various data summarization techniques such as random sampling, micro clustering, coreset computation, and Auto Encoders to counteract catastrophic forgetting. We built a pipeline for incremental training with a historical summary for training deep learning models for streaming data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of historical summary in mitigating catastrophic forgetting using three case studies involving three different deep learning applications: an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for classification task on MNIST dataset, a language model (RNN-LM) on the WikiText2 dataset, and a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), ResNet50 to classify the ImageNet dataset. Through the training of the models, we observe that catastrophic forgetting is evident in ANN and CNN but not in an RNN. For the first task, our method recovers up to 47.9% lost accuracy due to catastrophic forgetting. For the third task, the historical summary recovers classification accuracy by up to 25%. For the second task, though there is not proof of catastrophic forgetting, the training performance (PPL) improves by up to 26% with historical summary.

Dash, Sajal↗

Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

Chao, David F.↗

Understanding Atmospheric Catastrophes

The atmosphere, as in other parts of nature, is full of phenomena that involve rapid transitions from one (quasi-) equilibrium state to another--- i.e. catastrophes. These (quasi-) equilibria are the multiple solutions of the same dynamical system. Unlocking the mystery behind a catastrophe reveals not only the physical mechanism responsible for the transition, but also how the (quasi-) equilibria before and after the transition are maintained. Each catastrophe is different, but they do have some common traits. Understanding these common traits is the first step in studying these catastrophes. In this seminar, three examples chosen based on the speaker's research interest--tropical cyclogenesis, stratospheric sudden warming, and monsoon onset--are given to illustrate how atmospheric catastrophes can be studied.

Chao, Winston C.↗

Pathfinder Landing Site: Alternatives to Catastrophic Floods and An Antarctic Ice-Flow Analog for Outflow Channels on Mars

The Pathfinder spacecraft landed successfully at the mouth of the outflow channels Ares and Tiu Valles, returning a wealth of information about the surrounding landscape. One goal of the mission was to ascertain that catastrophic floods formed the outflow channels, the prevailing hypothesis for their origin. The follow-up reports on the mission proclaim that observations are "consistent" with an origin by catastrophic flood; no alternative mechanisms for channel origin are considered. Thus, the impression is given that the problem of channel origin has been solved. Yet none of the observations are diagnostic of origin by catastrophic floods. Other origins are possible but have been ignored, for instance origin as liquefaction mudflows, debris flows, mass flows, or ice flows. Here I will examine landing site observations that have been used to infer origin by catastrophic flooding and suggest alternative origins. Finally, I will highlight some new observation from Antarctica that make an ice-flow mechanism plausible for the origin of some of the outflow channels.

Lucchitta, B. K.↗

Deformation Precursors to Catastrophic Failure in Rocks

Forecasting the timing of catastrophic failure, such as crustal earthquakes, has been a central concern for centuries. Such forecasting requires identifying signals that evolve or accelerate in the precursory phase leading to failure, and the subset of signals that may be detected in the crust. We develop machine learning models to predict the proximity of catastrophic failure in synchrotron X-ray tomography triaxial compression experiments on rocks using characteristics of evolving fracture networks. We then examine the characteristics that most strongly influence the model results, and thus may be considered the best predictors of the proximity of macroscopic failure. Finally, the resulting suite of predictive parameters underscores the importance of dilation in the precursory phase leading to catastrophic failure. The results indicate that the evolution of the strain energy density field may provide more robust predictions of the proximity of failure than other existing metrics of rock deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Quantification of microtubule stutters: dynamic instability behaviors that are strongly associated with catastrophe

Microtubules (MTs) are cytoskeletal fibers that undergo dynamic instability (DI), a remarkable process involving phases of growth and shortening separated by stochastic transitions called catastrophe and rescue. Dissecting DI mechanism(s) requires first characterizing and quantifying these dynamics, a subjective process that often ignores complexity in MT behavior. We present a Statistical Tool for Automated Dynamic Instability Analysis (STADIA) that identifies and quantifies not only growth and shortening, but also a category of intermediate behaviors that we term “stutters.” During stutters, the rate of MT length change tends to be smaller in magnitude than during typical growth or shortening phases. Quantifying stutters and other behaviors with STADIA demonstrates that stutters precede most catastrophes in our in vitro experiments and dimer-scale MT simulations, suggesting that stutters are mechanistically involved in catastrophes. Related to this idea, we show that the anticatastrophe factor CLASP2γ works by promoting the return of stuttering MTs to growth. STADIA enables more comprehensive and data-driven analysis of MT dynamics compared with previous methods. The treatment of stutters as distinct and quantifiable DI behaviors provides new opportunities for analyzing mechanisms of MT dynamics and their regulation by binding proteins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Systemic Drivers of Electric-Grid-Caused Catastrophic Wildfires: Implications for Resilience in the United States

Wildfires are projected to increase in severity and frequency due to climate change, and the electric grid is both a cause of wildfires and is vulnerable to wildfires. Equipment from the electric grid accounts for 10% of fires burned in California and 3% of fires nationally. Recent catastrophic wildfires, such as the Lahaina Fire, Camp Fire, Marshall Fire, and Smokehouse Creek fires, were all started by electrical equipment and show how devastating these events can be because they threaten lives and structures. Vegetation structure, weather and winds, climate and vegetation response, land use, and human activities all impact the likelihood of severe wildfires. We explore the relationship between the built environment, electric grid infrastructure specifically, and its role in causing catastrophic wildfires to find lessons learned for increasing resilience. Electric grid utility companies currently employ multiple methods to mitigate fire, including (1) early detection, (2) grid hardening, (3) vegetation management, and (4) pre-emptive shutoffs. Utility companies need to consider the conditions for wildfire and the impact that each mitigation strategy has on drivers of wildfire behavior, as a single solution will not be adequate. Utility companies need to work with stakeholders to develop a holistic strategy to reduce ignition likelihood and spread likelihood to reduce catastrophic wildfires and improve resiliency.

Eagleston, Holly (ORCID:0000000178175116)↗

Catastrophic rupture of lunar rocks - A Monte Carlo simulation

A computer model based on Monte Carlo techniques was developed to simulate the destruction of lunar rocks by 'catastrophic rupture' due to meteoroid impact. Energies necessary to accomplish catastrophic rupture were derived from laboratory experiments. A crater-production rate derived from lunar rocks was utilized to calculate absolute time scales. Calculated median survival times for crystalline lunar rocks are 1.9, 4.6, 10.3, and 22 m.y. for rock masses of 10, 100, 1000, and 10,000 g, respectively. Corresponding times of 6, 14.5, 32, and 68 million years are required before the probability of destruction reaches 0.99. These results are consistent with absolute exposure ages measured on returned rocks. Some results also substantiate previous conclusions that the catastrophic-rupture process is significantly more effective in obliterating lunar rocks than mass wasting by single-particle abrasion. The view is also corroborated that most rocks presently on the lunar surface either are exhumed from the regolith or are fragments of much larger boulders rather than primary ejecta excavated from pristine bedrock.

Hoerz, F.↗

Sudden stratospheric warmings as catastrophes

The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) process is qualitatively studied using a conceptual and numerical approach guided by catastrophe theory. A simple example of a catastrophe taken from nonlinear dynamics is given, and results from previous modelling studies of SSW are interpreted in light of catastrophe theory. Properties of this theory such as hysteresis, cusp, and triggering essential to SSW are numerically demonstrated using the truncated quasi-geostrophic beta-plane model of Holton and Mass (1976). A qualitative explanation of the transition from the steady regime to the vacillation regime is given for the Holton and Mass model in terms of the topographically induced barotropic Rossby wave instability. Some implications for the simulation and prediction of SSW are discussed.

Chao, W. C.↗

Catastrophic disruption of asteriods and satellites; Proceedings of the International Workshop, Pisa, Italy, July 30-August 2, 1985

Theoretical, numerical, and experimental investigations of the violent disruption of asteroids or planetary satellites are discussed in reviews and reports. Topics examined include acceleration techniques and results of experiments simulating catastrophic fragmentation events; laboratory simulations of catastrophic impact; scaling laws for the catastrophic collisions of asteroids; asteroid collisional history, the origin of the Hirayama families, and disruption of small satellites; and the implications of the inferred compositions of a steroids for their collisional evolution. Diagrams, graphs, tables, and a summary of the discussion at the workshop are provided.

Davis, D. R.↗

Thermal catastrophe in the plasma sheet boundary layer

This letter presents a first step towards a substorm model including particle heating and transport in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The heating mechanism discussed is resonant absorption of Alfven waves. For some assumed MHD perturbation incident from the tail lobes onto the plasma sheet, the local heating rate in the PSBL has the form of a resonance function of the one-fluid plasma temperature. Balancing the local heating by convective transport of the heated plasma toward the central plasma sheet, an 'equation of state" is found for the steady-state PSBL whose solution has the form of a mathematical catastrophe: at a critical value of a parameter containing the incident power flux, the local density, and the convection velocity, the equilibrium temperature jumps discontinuously. Associating this temperature increase with the abrupt onset of the substorm expansion phase, the catastrophe model indicates at least three ways in which the onset may be triggered. Several other consequences related to substorm dynamics are suggested by the simple catastrophe model.

Smith, Robert A.↗

The thermal catastrophe model of substorms

Equations are presented for the physical mechanisms involved in the resonant absorption of Alfven waves in the plasma sheet boundary layer. It is shown that energy absorbed by the plasma-sheet particles is a function of the central plasma sheet temperature. The heating curve, when coupled with convective transport, yielded an equation of state for the steady state plasma sheet, whose solution has the form of a mathematical catastrophe. The master equation includes dynamic terms describing the transition across the thermal catastrophe, making it possible to evaluate the time scale for the catastrophe to occur.

Goertz, C. K.↗

Heliospheric shocks and catastrophe theory

Various configurations of forward and reverse shocks that occur in the outer heliosphere can be classified using catastrophe theory. The existence of a forward shock is associated with a local maximum of a polynomial, and the existence of a reverse shock is associated with a local minimum of a polynomial. A configuration with N forward shocks and N reverse shocks corresponds to a polynomial with N maxima and N minima. The formation of forward and reverse shocks corresponds to the creation of maxima and minima of a polynomial, which is described by the separatrices of the catastrophes. The coalescence of two forward (reverse) shocks corresponds to the situation when two maxima (minima) of a polynomial have equal values, and the interaction of a forward shock with a reverse shock corresponds to a polynomial with a local maximum equal to a local minimum; these situations are described by the Maxwell sets of the appropriate catastrophes.

Burlaga, L. F.↗

Cosmic impacts, cosmic catastrophes. II

The role of extraterrestrial impacts in shaping the earth's history is discussed, arguing that cosmic impacts represent just one example of a general shift in thinking that has made the idea of catastrophes respectable in science. The origins of this view are presented and current catastrophic theory is discussed in the context of modern debate on the geological formation of the earth. Various conflicting theories are reviewed and prominent participants in the ongoing scientific controversy concerning catastrophism are introduced.

Chapman, Clark R.↗

Catastrophic fragmentation of asteroids: Evidence from meteorites

Meteorites are impact-derived fragments from approximately 85 parent bodies. For seven of these bodies, the meteorites record evidence suggesting that they may have been catastrophically fragmented. We identify three types of catastrophic events: (1) impact and reassemble events greater than 4.4 Gy ago, involving molten or very hot parent bodies (greater than 1200 C); this affected the parent bodies of the ureilites, Shallowater, and the mesosiderites. In each case, the fragments cooled rapidly (approximately 1-1000 C/day) and then reassembled. (2) Later impacts involving cold bodies which, in some cases, reassembled; this occurred on the H and L ordinary chondrite parent bodies. The L parent body probably suffered another catastrophic event about 500 My ago. (3) Recent impacts of cold, multi-kilometer-sized bodies that generated meter-sized meteoroids; this occurred on the parent bodies of the IIIAB irons (650 My ago), the IVA irons (400 My ago), and the H ordinary chondrite (7 My ago).

Keil, K.↗

The Formation of Asteroid Satellites in Catastrophic Impacts: Results from Numerical Simulations

We have performed new simulations of the formation of asteroid satellites by collisions, using a combination of hydrodynamical and gravitational dynamical codes. This initial work shows that both small satellites and ejected, co-orbiting pairs are produced most favorably by moderate-energy collisions at more direct, rather than oblique, impact angles. Simulations so far seem to be able to produce systems qualitatively similar to known binaries. Asteroid satellites provide vital clues that can help us understand the physics of hypervelocity impacts, the dominant geologic process affecting large main belt asteroids. Moreover, models of satellite formation may provide constraints on the internal structures of asteroids beyond those possible from observations of satellite orbital properties alone. It is probable that most observed main-belt asteroid satellites are by-products of cratering and/or catastrophic disruption events. Several possible formation mechanisms related to collisions have been identified: (i) mutual capture following catastrophic disruption, (ii) rotational fission due to glancing impact and spin-up, and (iii) re-accretion in orbit of ejecta from large, non-catastrophic impacts. Here we present results from a systematic investigation directed toward mapping out the parameter space of the first and third of these three collisional mechanisms.

Durda, D. D.↗

Catastrophic Cooling Instability in Optically Thin Plasmas

The solar corona is the prototypical example of a low-density environment heated to high temperatures by external sources. The plasma cools radiatively, and because it is optically thin to this radiation, it becomes possible to model the density, velocity, and temperature structure of the system by modifying the MHD equations to include an energy source term that approximates the local heating and cooling rates. The solutions can be highly inhomogeneous and even multiphase because the well-known linear instability associated with this source term, thermal instability, leads to a catastrophic heating and cooling of the plasma in the nonlinear regime. Here we show that there is a separate, much simpler linear instability accompanying this source term that can rival thermal instability in dynamical importance. The stability criterion is the isochoric one identified by Parker (1953), and we demonstrate that cooling functions derived from collisional ionization equilibrium are highly prone to violating this criterion. If catastrophic cooling instability can act locally in global simulations, then it is an alternative mechanism for forming condensations, and due to its nonequilibrium character, it may be relevant to explaining a host of phenomena associated with the production of cooler gas in hot, low density plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Superheating gold beyond the predicted entropy catastrophe threshold

In their landmark study, Fecht and Johnson unveiled a phenomenon that they termed the ‘entropy catastrophe’, a critical point where the entropy of superheated crystals equates to that of their liquid counterparts. This point marks the uppermost stability boundary for solids at temperatures typically around three times their melting point. Despite the theoretical prediction of this ultimate stability threshold, its practical exploration has been prevented by numerous intermediate destabilizing events, colloquially known as a hierarchy of catastrophes, which occur at far lower temperatures. Here we experimentally test this limit under ultrafast heating conditions, directly tracking the lattice temperature by using high-resolution inelastic X-ray scattering. Our gold samples are heated to temperatures over 14 times their melting point while retaining their crystalline structure, far surpassing the predicted threshold and suggesting a substantially higher or potentially no limit for superheating. We point to the inability of our samples to expand on these very short timescales as an important difference from previous estimates. These observations provide insights into the dynamics of melting under extreme conditions.

Laser-produced plasmas↗