Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “causal”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Causal Directions Matter: How Environmental Factors Drive Convective Cloud Detrainment Heights

This study investigates how environmental factors influence the level of maximum detrainment (LMD) in deep convective clouds. Through a novel application of the Linear Non‐Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM), we discover causal structures between environmental variables and LMD, observed at six tropical sites operated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. LiNGAM effectively identifies causal directions among variables of interest, revealing robust relationships such as those among the lifting condensation level (LCL), level of free convection (LFC), and convective inhibition (CIN), aligning with prior knowledge. Relative humidity is shown to directly influence LMD; however, this relationship exhibits strong nonlinearity and becomes difficult to detect when the contrast between oceanic and continental environments is excluded from the analysis. This study highlights the importance of establishing causal relationships before performing statistical inference.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A causal perspective on reliability assessment

Causality in an engineered system pertains to how a system output changes due to a controlled change or intervention on the system or system environment. Engineered systems designs reflect a causal theory regarding how a system will work, and predicting the reliability of such systems typically requires knowledge of this underlying causal structure. The aim of this work is to introduce causal modeling tools that inform reliability predictions based on biased data sources. We present a novel application of the popular structural causal modeling (SCM) framework to reliability estimation in an engineering application, illustrating how this framework can inform whether reliability is estimable and how to estimate reliability given a set of data and assumptions about the subject matter and data generating mechanism. When data are insufficient for estimation, sensitivity studies based on problem-specific knowledge can inform how much reliability estimates can change due to biases in the data and what information should be collected next to provide the most additional information. We apply the approach to a pedagogical example related to a real, but proprietary, engineering application, considering how two types of biases in data can influence a reliability calculation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Suppression of non-manifold-like sets in the causal set path integral

While it is possible to build causal sets that approximate spacetime manifolds, most causal sets are not at all manifold-like. Here, we show that a Lorentzian path integral with the Einstein-Hilbert action has a phase in which one large class of non-manifold-like causal sets is strongly suppressed, and suggest a direction for generalization to other classes. While we cannot yet show our argument holds for all non-manifold-like sets, our results make it plausible that the path integral might lead to emergent manifold-like behavior with no need for further conditions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dimensional reduction in manifoldlike causal sets

We investigate the behavior of small subsets of causal sets that approximate Minkowski space in three, four, and five dimensions, and show that their effective dimension decreases smoothly at small distances. The details of the short distance behavior depend on a choice of dimensional estimator, but for a reasonable version of the Myrheim-Meyer dimension, the minimum dimension is d ≈ 2 , reproducing results that have been seen in other approaches to quantum gravity.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

VALIDATION, VERIFICATION, AND CALIBRATION THROUGH A CAUSAL LENS

This paper presents an alternative method based on causal inference to perform validation, verification, and calibration of simulation models. While classical validation and verification approaches focus on the identification of the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on the identification of causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between datasets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, then the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles it is known as a directed acyclic graph (DAG). A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and from experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts have a means to identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Verification, Validation, and Calibration Through a Causal Lens

While typical validation and verification approaches focus on identifying the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on identifying causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine-learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between data sets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify, and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles, it is known as a directed acyclic graph. A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts can identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feedback density and causal complexity of simulation model structure

Measures of simulation model complexity generally focus on outputs; we propose measuring the complexity of a model’s causal structure to gain insight into its fundamental character. This article introduces tools for measuring causal complexity. First, we introduce a method for developing a model’s causal structure diagram, which characterises the causal interactions present in the code. Causal structure diagrams facilitate comparison of simulation models, including those from different paradigms. Next, we develop metrics for evaluating a model’s causal complexity using its causal structure diagram. We discuss cyclomatic complexity as a measure of the intricacy of causal structure and introduce two new metrics that incorporate the concept of feedback, a fundamental component of causal structure. The first new metric introduced here is feedback density, a measure of the cycle-based interconnectedness of causal structure. The second metric combines cyclomatic complexity and feedback density into a comprehensive causal complexity measure. Finally, we demonstrate these complexity metrics on simulation models from multiple paradigms and discuss potential uses and interpretations. These tools enable direct comparison of models across paradigms and provide a mechanism for measuring and discussing complexity based on a model’s fundamental assumptions and design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

QTG-Finder2: A Generalized Machine-Learning Algorithm for Prioritizing QTL Causal Genes in Plants

Linkage mapping has been widely used to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) in many plants and usually requires a time-consuming and labor-intensive fine mapping process to find the causal gene underlying the QTL. Previously, we described QTG-Finder, a machine-learning algorithm to rationally prioritize candidate causal genes in QTLs. Although it showed good performance, QTG-Finder could only be used in Arabidopsis and rice because of the limited number of known causal genes in other species. Here we tested the feasibility of enabling QTG-Finder to work on species that have few or no known causal genes by using orthologs of known causal genes as training set. The model trained with orthologs could recall about 64% of Arabidopsis and 83% of rice causal genes when the top 20% ranked genes were considered, which is similar to the performance of models trained with known causal genes. The average precision was 0.027 for Arabidopsis and 0.029 for rice. We further extended the algorithm to include polymorphisms in conserved non-coding sequences and gene presence/absence variation as additional features. Using this algorithm, QTG-Finder2, we trained and cross-validated Sorghum bicolor and Setaria viridis models. The S. bicolor model was validated by causal genes curated from the literature and could recall 70% of causal genes when the top 20% ranked genes were considered. Furthermore, we applied the S. viridis model and public transcriptome data to prioritize a plant height QTL and identified 13 candidate genes. QTL-Finder2 can accelerate the discovery of causal genes in any plant species and facilitate agricultural trait improvement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach

Causal discovery tools enable scientists to infer meaningful relationships from observational data, spurring advances in fields as diverse as biology, economics, and climate science. Despite these successes, the application of causal discovery to space-time systems remains immensely challenging due to the high-dimensional nature of the data. For example, in climate sciences, modern observational temperature records over the past few decades regularly measure thousands of locations around the globe. To address these challenges, we introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe), a novel meta-algorithm for discovering causal structures in complex space-time systems. CaStLe leverages regularities in local space-time dependencies to learn governing global dynamics. This local perspective eliminates spurious confounding and drastically reduces sample complexity, making space-time causal discovery practical and effective. For causal discovery, CaStLe flexibly accepts any appropriately adapted time series causal discovery algorithm to recover local causal structures. These advances enable causal discovery of geophysical phenomena that were previously unapproachable, including non-periodic, transient phenomena such as volcanic eruption plumes. Regularities in local space-time dependencies are transformed into informative spatial replicates, which actually improve CaStLe's performance when applied to ever-larger spatial grids. We successfully apply CaStLe to discover the atmospheric dynamics governing the climate response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. We provide validation experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of CaStLe over existing causal-discovery frameworks on a range of geophysics-inspired benchmarks while identifying the method's limitations and domains where its assumptions may not hold.

Nichol, J. Jake [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Granger causal inference for climate change attribution

Abstract Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) is concerned with determining the extent to which anthropogenic activities have influenced specific aspects of the global climate system. D&A fits within the broader field of causal inference, the collection of statistical methods that identify cause and effect relationships. There are a wide variety of methods for making attribution statements, each of which require different types of input data and focus on different types of weather and climate events and each of which are conditional to varying extents. Some methods are based on Pearl causality (direct experimental interference) while others leverage Granger (predictive) causality, and the causal framing provides important context for how the resulting attribution conclusion should be interpreted. However, while Granger-causal attribution analyses have become more common, there is no clear statement of their strengths and weaknesses relative to Pearl-causal attribution and no clear consensus on where and when Granger-causal perspectives are appropriate. In this prospective paper, we provide a formal definition for Granger-based approaches to trend and event attribution and a clear comparison with more traditional methods for assessing the human influence on extreme weather and climate events. Broadly speaking, Granger-causal attribution statements can be constructed quickly from observations and do not require computationally-intesive dynamical experiments. These analyses also enable rapid attribution, which is useful in the aftermath of a severe weather event, and provide multiple lines of evidence for anthropogenic climate change when paired with Pearl-causal attribution. Confidence in attribution statements is increased when different methodologies arrive at similar conclusions. Moving forward, we encourage the D&A community to embrace hybrid approaches to climate change attribution that leverage the strengths of both Granger and Pearl causality.

Risser, Mark D. (ORCID:0000000319561783)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Methods for Causal Discovery in Hydrometeorological Systems

Understanding causal relations is of utmost importance in hydrology and climate research for systems identification, prediction, and understanding systems behavior in a changing climate. Traditionally, researchers in hydrometeorology attempted to study causal questions by conducting controlled experiments using numerical models. This approach, however, in most cases of interest provides uncertain results because the models are approximate representation of the natural system. An alternative approach that has recently drawn significant attention in several fields is to infer causal relations from purely observational data. It possesses several traits to its utility particularly in hydrometeorology due to the rapid accumulation of in situ and remotely sensed data records. The first objective of this study is to present a brief description of four causal discovery methods (Granger causality, Transfer Entropy, graph-based algorithms, and Convergent Cross Mapping) with special emphasis on the assumptions on which they are built. Second, using synthetic data generated from a hydrological model, we assess their performance in retrieving causal information taking into account sensitivity to sample size and presence of noise. Last, we use causal analysis to examine and formulate hypotheses on causal drivers of evapotranspiration in a shrubland region during summer and winter seasons. An interpretation of the hypotheses based on canopy seasonal dynamics and evapotranspiration processes is presented. It is hoped that the results presented here can be useful in guiding researchers studying hydrometeorological systems as to which causal method is most appropriate to the characteristics of the system under study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of advanced causal analyses to identify processes governing secondary organic aerosols

Abstract Understanding how different physical and chemical atmospheric processes affect the formation of fine particles has been a persistent challenge. Inferring causal relations between the various measured features affecting the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles is complicated since correlations between variables do not necessarily imply causality. Here, we apply a state-of-the-art information transfer measure coupled with the Koopman operator framework to infer causal relations between isoprene epoxydiol SOA (IEPOX-SOA) and different chemistry and meteorological variables derived from detailed regional model predictions over the Amazon rainforest. IEPOX-SOA represents one of the most complex SOA formation pathways and is formed by the interactions between natural biogenic isoprene emissions and anthropogenic emissions affecting sulfate, acidity and particle water. Since the regional model captures the known relations of IEPOX-SOA with different chemistry and meteorological features, their simulated time series implicitly include their causal relations. We show that our causal model successfully infers the known major causal relations between total particle phase 2-methyl tetrols (the dominant component of IEPOX-SOA over the Amazon) and input features. We provide the first proof of concept that the application of our causal model better identifies causal relations compared to correlation and random forest analyses performed over the same dataset. Our work has tremendous implications, as our methodology of causal discovery could be used to identify unknown processes and features affecting fine particles and atmospheric chemistry in the Earth’s atmosphere.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗