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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge and support human space missions. Through artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in space biosciences and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and mission operations autonomy. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the space biology field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate muscular underpinnings of muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interactions, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets enabling programmers to identify best algorithms to answer space biology questions.

space biology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging computer science approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and autonomy of mission operations. We present a decadal view of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed in concert with leaders in the field. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing hardware, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated real-time mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. Cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics data to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of spaceflight rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate the muscular underpinnings of spaceflight muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human space health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interaction networks, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets (spaceflight mouse liver; radiation DNA damage) enabling programmers to identify the best ML algorithms to answer space biological science questions.

space biology↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biological Research and Space Health Enabled by Machine Learning to Support Deep Space Missions

A key science goal of the NASA “Moon to Mars” campaign is to understand how biology responds to the Lunar, Martian, and deep space environments in order to advance fundamental knowledge, reduce risk, and support safe, productive human space missions. Through the powerful emerging computer science approaches of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), a paradigm shift has begun in biomedical science and engineered astronaut health systems, to enable Earth-independence and autonomy of mission operations. We present a decadal view of AI/ML architecture to support deep space mission goals, developed in concert with leaders in the field. We describe current AI/ML methods to support 1) fundamental biology, 2) in situ analytics, 3) high performance computing hardware, 4) automated science, 5) self-driving labs, 6) remote data management, 7) integrated real-time mission biomonitoring, and 8) a Precision Space Health system. Cutting-edge AI/ML approaches that can be integrated to support these domains include active learning, explainable AI, adaptive learning, causal inference, knowledge graphs, federated learning, transfer learning, and large language models. Finally, we present results from several current ML projects that are underway in the field to address key challenges of small sample n, high feature count, heterogeneity, and sparse data. These include 1) connecting omics data to phenotypic data using an ensemble model to infer causality of spaceflight rodent liver health disruption, 2) usage of explainable ML to interrogate the muscular underpinnings of spaceflight muscle atrophy, 3) ML models analyzing and determining directed acyclic graphs of human space health risk leveraging rodent bone datasets, 4) usage of large pre-trained models connecting biomedical knowledgebases with small spaceflight datasets to understand gene-to-gene interaction networks, and 5) a suite of benchmarked open science datasets (spaceflight mouse liver; radiation DNA damage) enabling programmers to identify the best ML algorithms to answer space biological science questions.

space biology↗
NASA NTRS1987

Building intelligent systems - Artificial intelligence research at NASA Ames Research Center

The basic components that make up the goal of building autonomous intelligent systems are discussed, and ongoing work at the NASA Ames Research Center is described. It is noted that a clear progression of systems can be seen through research settings (both within and external to NASA) to Space Station testbeds to systems which actually fly on the Space Station. The starting point for the discussion is a 'truly' autonomous Space Station intelligent system, responsible for a major portion of Space Station control. Attention is given to research in fiscal 1987, including reasoning under uncertainty, machine learning, causal modeling and simulation, knowledge from design through operations, advanced planning work, validation methodologies, and hierarchical control of and distributed cooperation among multiple knowledge-based systems.

Friedland, Peter↗
NASA NTRS1987

Building intelligent systems: Artificial intelligence research at NASA Ames Research Center

The basic components that make up the goal of building autonomous intelligent systems are discussed, and ongoing work at the NASA Ames Research Center is described. It is noted that a clear progression of systems can be seen through research settings (both within and external to NASA) to Space Station testbeds to systems which actually fly on the Space Station. The starting point for the discussion is a truly autonomous Space Station intelligent system, responsible for a major portion of Space Station control. Attention is given to research in fiscal 1987, including reasoning under uncertainty, machine learning, causal modeling and simulation, knowledge from design through operations, advanced planning work, validation methodologies, and hierarchical control of and distributed cooperation among multiple knowledge-based systems.

Friedland, P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Autonomous Ocean World Exploration: Advancement of a Virtual Testbed

The search for life (extinct or extant) and potentially habitable bodies in our solar system and beyond is one of the 12 priority science questions outlined in the National Acadamies’ 2022 decadal survey [5]. Extraterrestrial destinations containing liquid water present an opportunity to search for life as we know it, and in recent years an increasing number of such locations have been discovered within our solar system. Several Jovian moons—Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto [10]—and the Saturnian moons Enceladus [8] and Titan [9] are known or suspected to harbor massive subsurface oceans. Of these "ocean worlds", Europa is the focus of at least one planned NASA orbiter mission, Europa Clipper [4], and an early lander mission concept, the Europa Lander [2, 3]. Whereas most robotic missions to the Moon and Mars (e.g. orbiters, rovers, landers) to date have had ground controllers on Earth tightly involved in mission operations, missions to more distant worlds will require a high degree of onboard autonomy due to long communication lags and blackouts, harsh environments (radiation, cold), and more limited battery and hardware life. The past decade has seen great advances in both AI technologies and computing scalability and performance that offer promising solutions for spacecraft autonomy and motivate the software system and research programs described in this paper. The Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration, Research, and Simulation (OceanWATERS) [1], which has been in development at the NASA Ames Research Center since 2018, is a virtual environment for testing lander autonomy solutions. It is built on the Robot Operating System (ROS), runs on consumer-grade Linux workstations, and was released as open source in 2020. OceanWATERS provides a physical and visual simulation of a prototypical lander in a Europa-like environment (Figure 1). The lander was modeled after requirements and specifications made in JPL’s Europa Lander Study of 2016 [3]. Simulated lander systems include stereo cameras and spotlights mounted on an antenna mast that pans and tilts, a 6 degrees of freedom (DoF) robotic arm with a force-torque sensor and two interchangeable end effectors, and a battery pack power system. The environment consists of multiple terrain models including a highly detailed model sourced from the FROST dataset [11], simulation of surrounding planetary bodies based on an ephemeris model, and lighting from the sun with associated surface illumination, reflectance, and shadows. Operations supported by OceanWATERS include panoramic and directed imaging of the environment and lander workspace, Cartesian and joint-level arm commanding, grinding of the terrain surface (e.g. digging a trench), and scooping of ground material (Figure 2) which can be discarded or collected as science samples in a receptacle that can be emptied (science operations themselves are not simulated). These operations are realized as ROS Actions and are complimented by a wide selection of telemetry that is continually produced by each lander subsystem. The power system model is driven by the open-source Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) [11] that predicts the battery’s remaining useful life and other characteristics. As a testbed for high-level autonomy, OceanWATERS provides an execution framework based on PLEXIL [12], an open-source plan specification language and execution engine developed largely at Ames. NASA's initial development of OceanWATERS, as well the Ocean Worlds Lander Autonomy Testbed (OWLAT) [6], a complimentary physical testbed developed at JPL, was the first step in a plan for realizing candidate onboard autonomy solutions for such planetary landers. In 2020 NASA solicited applications for its Autonomous Robotics Research for Ocean Worlds (ARROW) program, and in 2021 the similar Concepts for Ocean worlds Life Detection Technology (COLDTech) program. Collectively six research teams, based in universities and companies across the United States, were awarded grants to develop and demonstrate autonomy solutions on OceanWATERS and OWLAT. These 1–2-year projects have now finished or are nearing completion, and a wide variety of autonomy challenges in ocean world surface missions were addressed. Prototyped and demonstrated solutions have included autonomous discovery, response and adaptation to system faults and unexpected environmental events, world model synthesis through perception, plan synthesis using learned models, methods to optimize sample target selection and prioritize science data transmission, extension of PLEXIL for stochastic decision-making, and an integration of a model of JPL’s mission-ready COLDArm [7]. Technologies used in these projects include many forms of machine learning, causal reasoning, automated planning, Markov decision processes, formal methods, and other advanced techniques. A more detailed summary of the ARROW and COLDTech projects is given herein. OceanWATERS has had significant enhancements since its open-source release in 2020. Many of its new features were driven or shaped by feedback from the ARROW and COLDTech teams and requirements of their projects. In support of enabling autonomous adaptation to spacecraft faults (a specific capability solicited by both programs), a fault injection and detection framework was developed that supports a wide and growing range of fault types such as locked joints, image loss, and battery failures. The power system model was completed and integrated into the simulator, starting as a single-cell battery model and later upgraded to a multi-cell model with associated faults such as cell disconnection. Arm/terrain interaction was improved by adding a force-torque sensor and associated faults, and an analytic dig force model based on the Balovnev bucket force equations. Environment fidelity was increased by modeling terrain deformation resulting from digging and scooping; visual improvements were made in textures, lighting, and shadows. To facilitate interoperation with OWLAT, a unified command and telemetry interface between the testbeds was developed at the ROS level, along with a PLEXIL interface. The number of lander operations was greatly expanded (e.g. with Cartesian-based arm and antenna movement), and a framework was designed for users to build their own lander actions. A GUI for PLEXIL plan selection was created (Figure 3), and an expansive set of plans were added, such as those that illustrate patterns for fault handling. This paper provides a self-contained high-level description of OceanWATERS, focusing on more detailed coverage of the aforementioned enhancements. It provides a high-level summary of the projects undertaken by participants in the ARROW and COLDTech programs and how these efforts have helped shape OceanWATERS. Finally, potential future work and directions for the testbed are listed, as likely informed by the recent planetary science decadal survey [5].

K Michael Dalal↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Method for Validating Causal Diagrams of Human Health Risk in Space Flight

The complexity of cause-and-effect relationships between spaceflight hazards and resulting health conditions clouds understanding of the totality of human system risk in space. In response, NASA has introduced Directed Acyclic Graphs (causal diagrams) into the human systems risk management process. These diagrams allow for a common understanding of the mechanisms that lead from unique hazards of spaceflight to the health outcomes important to agencies and astronauts. However, the paucity of available biomedical data from spaceflight creates a need for methods of validating causal models that can accommodate data from spaceflight model analogs. Here we outline one approach utilizing open-access rodent bone datasets from the Ames Life Sciences Data Archive. The properties of directed acyclic graphs themselves can provide an epistemological and statistical framework for validation of a priori causal representations of human system risk in space flight. The assumed causal connections on the graph creates sets of logical implications: variables that – if the causal diagram is correct – should be correlated, as well as sets that should be conditionally independent. By testing these implied correlations and conditional independencies both statistically and heuristically, we can provide evidence for or against specific causal pathways on the causal diagram. In addition to validation of expert-generated causal diagrams, machine learning techniques can learn the most likely structure of a causal diagram from a given dataset. Comparison with and reconciliation between machine-learned causal diagrams and expert-generated diagrams is another technique for challenging assumptions and improving our understanding of causal mechanisms. Accurately representing complex causation is essential to systemic understanding of human health risks in space travel. Having a robust system of validating causal diagrams helps us arrive at more accurate representations of causal systems. This process will be integral to developing the countermeasures necessary for extended exploration of the moon and Mars.

Robert Reynolds↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Launch Vehicle↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗
NASA NTRS2023

Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)

The term “Digital Twin” was first used in 2002 for product lifecycle management. Since then, Digital Twin concepts have been proposed in various domains until very recently for Earth Science. For NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as composed of three components: 1. A Digital Replica, i.e., an integrated picture of the past and current states of Earth systems 2. Forecasting capabilities, providing an integrated picture of how Earth systems will evolve in the future from the current state 3. Impact Assessment capabilities, providing an integrated picture of how Earth systems could evolve under different hypothetical what-if scenarios. Developing such a vision will require technologies related to: integrating continuous observations from various disparate sources; developing frameworks that builds on inter-connected models; improving the speed and accuracy of integrated prediction, analysis and visualization capabilities (e.g., by using machine learning); and utilizing causality and uncertainty quantification to improve our understanding of the evolution of Earth Science systems as a function of their interactions with other Earth and human systems. In addition, AIST is also investigating interoperability standards to federate multiple Digital Twins, as well as computational resources required by those systems.

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning for the Validation of Expert-Elicited Causal Risk Diagrams

Exposure to spaceflight poses risk to human health in complex ways. To help manage this risk, the Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) maintains a set of causal diagrams that attempt to explain how spaceflight hazards generate health risks and lead to adverse outcomes both in-mission, immediately post-mission, and over the long term. These causal risk diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and can function as knowledge graphs of connected risks and outcomes. These DAGs have proven useful for communication, and, through network analysis, have allowed for the identification of structurally important factors in the risk network. However, the utility these DAGs provide is directly proportional to their verisimilitude, making assessment of this trait using empirical data – whether from actual human spaceflight or various spaceflight analogue exposures and model organisms – a high priority. In this research we explore the use of machine learning algorithms to learn DAG structure from empirical data as a means of evaluating human-elicited DAG structures. To do so, we test several different graph structure-learning algorithms on data concerning changes in the bones of rats and mice after exposure to either spaceflight or a spaceflight analogue. We explore potential methods for indexing the similarity between each algorithm’s output DAG with all the others and with that of the expert-elicited DAG. We discuss next steps in this ongoing line of research and open science initiatives underway to complete them.

directed acyclic graphs↗
NASA NTRS1988

An architecture for an autonomous learning robot

An autonomous learning device must solve the example bounding problem, i.e., it must divide the continuous universe into discrete examples from which to learn. We describe an architecture which incorporates an example bounder for learning. The architecture is implemented in the GPAL program. An example run with a real mobile robot shows that the program learns and uses new causal, qualitative, and quantitative relationships.

Tillotson, Brian↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Federated Learning to Overcome Data Gravity in Space

Humans intend to take longer missions to outer space. Understanding the impact that space has on human health is paramount to the success of these missions. Controlled experiments with model organisms are run to infer the impact of space conditions on human health, but the data these experiments generate are too large to transfer to Earth for building models. The same is true for space-relevant data generated on Earth. Ideally, these datasets should be combined to improve statistical power and model accuracy without having to transfer data. Federated learning is such a method which trains an algorithm across decentralized computing systems, each of which has their own local copy of training and testing data. In this research, made possible by NASA@Work, the AI for Life in Space group at NASA demonstrates the use of federated learning to train an ensemble of causality inference models on a combination of data residing on the International Space Station (ISS) and in the cloud. Our work leverages CRISP, a causal inference platform developed during the 2020 Frontier Development Lab’s “Astronaut Health Challenge.” We also leverage the OpenFL federated learning library which was collaboratively developed at Intel and UPenn. We used publicly available data from the NASA Ames Life Sciences Data Archive to identify features in ionizing radiation experiments as causal of changes in cardiac blood velocity. This research demonstrates, for the first time, the possibility of running machine learning algorithms on datasets separated by astronomical distances. In this experiment, all the data were generated in terra, half of which were transferred to the ISS and analyzed on the Spaceborne Computer. In the future, our research will leverage federated learning on data generated in situ on the ISS with data generated terrestrially to predict the impact of spaceflight on mammalian female reproductive capacity.

James Casaletto↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)

"Similarly to artificial intelligence, which is now revolutionizing many aspects of our daily lives, Earth system digital twin technologies have the potential to revolutionize the way Earth Science research will be conducted in the future, and how results and knowledge from this research will provide information to support decision making and yield impactful societal benefits. An Earth System Digital Twin or ESDT is a dynamic and interactive information system that first provides a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth or Earth system as accurately and timely as possible; second, allows for computing forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and based on the current replica; and third, offers the capability to investigate many hypothetical scenarios under varying impact assumptions. In other words, an ESDT provides the integrated What-Now, What-Next, and What-If pictures of the Earth or Earth system, by continuously ingesting newly observed data and by leveraging multiple interconnected models, machine learning as well advanced computing and visualization capabilities. Digital twins have been developed in engineering since 2002, but the interest in digital twins for the Earth domain is more recent and stems from the convergence of several developments: - The huge amount of diverse data that has now been collected continuously for more than 50 years, and that is becoming more and more difficult to access, understand, and utilize. - At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts the information produced by all of this data is becoming of interest to many new non-traditional users for analyzing and predicting various phenomena. - Because of advances in computational and visualization capabilities and the parallel unprecedented development of machine learning (ML), extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data and running complex models faster has become possible. As a result, it is becoming necessary and possible to build intuitive and interactive frameworks that will enable users with various skill levels and/or organizational hierarchy levels to easily access large amounts of targeted information along with the relevant tools and models (Earth system and human activity models), to support them in analyzing and visualizing this information, to help them understand interactions among models, to visualize the potential outcomes of various impacts, and to support decision or policy making. The full power of digital twins is that, through an integrated representation and standardized tools and software technologies, the same digital replica can address the needs of multiple users at various resolutions (spatial and temporal) and for various applications (science, economic, policy, etc.) – “from farmer to scientist”. With all these interests at stake, the challenges of building optimal digital twins are many and complex. The first challenge is to determine if a Digital Twin should be global or local, and multi-domain or thematic. For example, some domains such as Climate or Weather will require a global Digital Twin or Digital Twin capabilities while science areas such as Biodiversity might be more local. We can also envision that multiple thematic ESDTs, e.g., Air Quality, Wildfires, Hydrology could be federated or provide input to other ESDTs, either on a regional level or to a more global ESDT. Overall, we can imagine a future “web” of Digital Twins co-existing in a hierarchy or in a network, and capable of being connected or federated depending on the needs. This last point brings up the very important challenge of interoperability, including standards and protocols that will need to be built into these systems from the beginning. Each individual digital twin would have full flexibility in internal construction but would need standards-based interfaces (input and output) or hooks to make it compatible with others. Another challenge when building digital twins will be to decide how to organize each digital replica. Based on the applications targeted by the DT under implementation, various amounts and types of raw data, Analysis Ready Data (ARD) and information will need to be incorporated. Depending on the required latencies and needs of the users, various solutions can be considered, including Data Cubes, Data Lakes, pointers, or computing information on demand. We envision that each ESDT will choose a solution adapted to its specific objectives. Another important challenge is the type(s) of visualization that will be used, as well as the level of interactivity and refresh rate that will be required. Again, this will depend on the objectives of the ESDT, but also on the various users’ needs. In most cases, several types of visualizations and human interfaces will need to be offered depending on the projected users of that system. In parallel to the challenges highlighted above, there are also many tools and technologies that will need to be developed or improved for all types of digital twins. Among those are improved machine learning technologies, for example providing explainability, but also ML techniques for causality and providing a better integration of physics models. Additionally, reliable uncertainty quantification methods will be needed for all ESDT components, from validating data fusion and assimilation to assessing the accuracy of ML models and weighing the values of decisions supported by those systems. This presentation introduces the ESDT concept, presents several ESDT use cases, and a proposed ESDT architecture framework, as well as various technologies being developed by the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program."

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards a program of record of inland water quality: Exploiting present and heritage multispectral sensors for maximum information extraction

Degradation of Earth’s inland water resources due to anthropogenic perturbations and climate anomalies at both local and global scales continues to place human health at substantial risk. There is now a growing necessity to develop pragmatic approaches that allow timely and effective extrapolation of local processes, to spatially resolved global products, and to promote operational and sustainable resource policy management. This research exploits recent advancements in bio-optical modeling, cloud computing, and machine learning to enhance our capacity to leverage present and heritage satellite data. Recent research suggests that sensors with low spectral resolution, such as Sentinel 2 and Landsat missions, contain enough hidden spectral variation which can be exploited using data-driven approaches. The availability of three decades of archival imagery will open doors to discover global trends of eutrophication and increased cyanobacteria dominance and provide valuable insight to the development of predictive methodologies. Preliminary efforts in synthetic emulation of global natural inland waters will be discussed and contextualized against satellite radiometric measurement uncertainty, satellite data product uncertainties and causal signal ambiguity over the visible wavelength range, supported by high quality field and image data for selected inland aquatic sites. Insights on water quality estimation via data-driven machine learning models versus matrix inversions will be discussed, and how we can exploit spectral-spatial relationships in high spatial resolution data. A cross-sensor synergistic approach with detailed uncertainty analysis based on optical water types, will allow for unprecedented global snapshots of fine scale ecological dynamics of inland waters.

Inland↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development and Testing of Data Mining Algorithms for Earth Observation

The new algorithms developed under this project included a principled procedure for classification of objects, events or circumstances according to a target variable when a very large number of potential predictor variables is available but the number of cases that can be used for training a classifier is relatively small. These "high dimensional" problems require finding a minimal set of variables -called the Markov Blanket-- sufficient for predicting the value of the target variable. An algorithm, the Markov Blanket Fan Search, was developed, implemented and tested on both simulated and real data in conjunction with a graphical model classifier, which was also implemented. Another algorithm developed and implemented in TETRAD IV for time series elaborated on work by C. Granger and N. Swanson, which in turn exploited some of our earlier work. The algorithms in question learn a linear time series model from data. Given such a time series, the simultaneous residual covariances, after factoring out time dependencies, may provide information about causal processes that occur more rapidly than the time series representation allow, so called simultaneous or contemporaneous causal processes. Working with A. Monetta, a graduate student from Italy, we produced the correct statistics for estimating the contemporaneous causal structure from time series data using the TETRAD IV suite of algorithms. Two economists, David Bessler and Kevin Hoover, have independently published applications using TETRAD style algorithms to the same purpose. These implementations and algorithmic developments were separately used in two kinds of studies of climate data: Short time series of geographically proximate climate variables predicting agricultural effects in California, and longer duration climate measurements of temperature teleconnections.

Glymour, Clark↗
NASA NTRS2004

Ontology Development and Evolution in the Accident Investigation Domain

InvestiigationOrganizer (IO) is a collaborative semantic web system designed to support the conduct of mishap investigations. IO provides a common repository for a wide range of mishap related information, allowing investigators to integrate evidence, causal models, and investigation results. IO has been used to support investigations ranging from a small property damage case to the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia. Through IO'S use in these investigations, we have learned significant lessons? about the application of ontologies and semantic systems to solving real-world problems. This paper will describe the development of the ontology within IO, from the initial development, its growth in response to user requests during use in investigations, and the recent work that was done to control the results of that growth. This paper will also describe the lessons learned from this experience and how they may apply to the implementaton of future ontologies and semantic systems.

Carvalho, Robert↗