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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Global change, particularly the changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, climatic variables, and nitrogen deposition, has been widely recognized and examined to have worldwide impacts on forest carbon. However, its influence on forest area required to meet the demand for timber and carbon storage and subsequent land use and land cover change (LULCC) is rarely studied. This study explores the role of global change-driven forest carbon change in shaping future global LULCC projections and investigates underlying drivers. We incorporated the global change impacts on forest carbon from the Canadian Land Surface Scheme Including Biogeochemical Cycles model simulations (driven by meteorological forcing projections from two Earth system models [ESMs]) into the Global Change Analysis Model, under three combinations of shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Including forest carbon change decreases the projected expansion of managed forest and managed pasture, reduces the loss of unmanaged pastures and forests, and provides more cropland. The relative change in managed forest by 2100 is -4.0%, -21.7%, and -31.9%, under SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively, when forest carbon change is considered. CO 2 fertilization is the dominant driver, increasing forest vegetation and soil carbon by 37% and 4.1%, and leading to 78.6% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585. In comparison, climate change reduces forest vegetation and soil carbon by -3.5% and -0.8%, influencing 23.9% of the total area with a change in land use types by 2100 under SSP585, while nitrogen deposition has minor impacts. Using meteorological forcing data from two ESMs leads to similar impacts of forest carbon change on LULCC in terms of sign and trend but different magnitudes. This study highlights the large impact of forest carbon change on shaping future LULCC dynamics and the critical role of CO 2 fertilization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Detection Under Changing Seasonality and Mean-State Climate: ARTMIP Tier 2 Paleoclimate Experiments

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filamentary structures within the atmosphere that account for a substantial portion of poleward moisture transport and play an important role in Earth's hydroclimate. However, there is no one quantitative definition for what constitutes an atmospheric river, leading to uncertainty in quantifying how these systems respond to global change. This study seeks to better understand how different AR detection tools (ARDTs) respond to changes in climate states utilizing single-forcing climate model experiments under the aegis of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP). We compare a simulation with an early Holocene orbital configuration and another with CO2 levels of the Last Glacial Maximum to a preindustrial control simulation to test how the ARDTs respond to changes in seasonality and mean climate state, respectively. We find good agreement among the algorithms in the AR response to the changing orbital configuration, with a poleward shift in AR frequency that tracks seasonal poleward shifts in atmospheric water vapor and zonal winds. In the low CO2 simulation, the algorithms generally agree on the sign of AR changes, but there is substantial spread in their magnitude, indicating that mean-state changes lead to larger uncertainty. This disagreement likely arises primarily from differences between algorithms in their thresholds for water vapor and its transport used for identifying ARs. These findings warrant caution in ARDT selection for paleoclimate and climate change studies in which there is a change to the mean climate state, as ARDT selection contributes substantial uncertainty in such cases.

Atmospheric river, paleoclimate↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Forest Management-Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

Anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under-investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management-induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management-induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management-induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (-7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (-0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management-induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management-induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Potential Effects of Climate Change and Solar Radiation Modification on Renewable Energy Resources

Solar radiation modification (SRM) is a possible deliberate approach to decrease or reflect incoming solar radiation with the goal of reducing global temperatures, which have increased over the last decades due to high atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Stratospheric aerosol injection, specifically, has shown potential for successfully reducing global temperatures in climate model simulations. Despite the growing literature in the areas of climate change and SRM, their combined effects on renewable energy generation, a climate change mitigation strategy, have not been addressed. In this review paper, we synthesize previous literature on the possible effects of climate change and SRM on renewable energy resources (i.e., wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, and hydropower), review the status of climate change and SRM research, and explore potential effects of SRM on renewable energy primarily in the Continental United States (CONUS), but with global perspectives as well. We discuss the research challenges and impacts of SRM on renewable energy and conclude by discussing the potential implications of SRM for renewables for SRM governance and policy. This work is not advocating for or against SRM. It is highlighting an important potential impact for future decision makers.

Kumler, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reservoir Storage Capacity Change (ResCap)

Overview Storage capacity is an essential reservoir metric that is directly linked to various water management and energy objectives. Accurate reporting and tracking of change in storage over time is crucial for the safe and reliable operation of the associated dam. While storage information is available for many reservoirs through the National Inventory of Dams, additional details, e.g. water elevation levels as well as changes over time are not included. This dataset contains reservoir storage capacities based on conducted surveys in CONUS. To represent changes in a reservoir’s storage over time, the storage capacity as determined by the first and last conducted survey is listed. The level of detail of surveys can vary greatly and improved with technological advancements. Therefore, the type of survey and year when it was conducted is noted. To ensure a fair comparison of storage capacities, the water elevation level along with the corresponding operation of the dam is reported. Structural changes, e.g. heightening of a dam will have an influence on the storage capacity and are therefore also mentioned. A total of 739 different reservoir storage capacity comparisons are listed, with some reservoirs represented more than once (storage capacity comparison at different water elevation levels). Methodology Data were acquired from USBR reservoir survey reports, TWDB lake survey reports and elevation-area-capacity tables, the RSI Web Portal and the NID (USACE, 2024). Initial storage capacity along with year and type of survey record is compared to the most recent reported storage capacity, survey type and year. Comparison elevation in feet as well as comparison elevation type were either extracted from survey reports (USBR, TWDB) or the Web Portal (RSI) and in some cases cross-referenced with data from other sources (Water Management Data, USACE, Water Data for Texas, TWDB).

Chu, Antonia [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000510540427)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE: Fiber Optic Cumulative Strain Change and Strain Change Rate Data From Well 16A Stimulation at Well 16B

This dataset includes Rayleigh Frequency Shift (RFS) Distributed Strain Sensing (DSS) cumulative strain change and change rate data. The data was acquired during the stimulation of Utah FORGE Well 16A(78)-32 in April 2024 via fiber installed in Well 16B(78)-32. The fiber optic data was acquired using Neubrex SR7000 RFS DSS Distributed Strain sensing instruments and is saved here in the format of HDF5 files (.h5 extension). The spatial sampling on the full wellbore profiles is 0.20 centimeters. The data is the far field strain change response from a baseline profile made down the 16B well on April 3, 2024, so each strain value represents the strain change or strain change rate at each depth relative to the baseline reference profile. The data arrays for each type share the same dimensions (number of channels and time stamps).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expansion of Carbon Calculator for Land Use and Land Management Change from Biofuels Production (CCLUB) to Address Induced Land Use Changes and Other Indirect Effects of Clean Fuel Production for R&D GREET ® 2024

Since the late 2000s, biofuel life-cycle analysis (LCA) has included induced land use change (ILUC) and other indirect effects (I-effects) of large-scale feedstock production for biofuels. In ILUC and I-effect emissions modeling, economic models are used to simulate the area of land conversion among different land types and other I-effects such as non-feedstock crop production and livestock production that are driven by the scenarios of biofuel production volume shocks. On the other hand, emission factors (EF) models estimate carbon stock changes and GHG emissions associated with these changes. Finally, the area and type of ILUC and I-effects are combined with the EFs to estimate the biofuel ILUC/I-effect GHG emissions in the unit of grams of CO 2 equivalent per MJ biofuel produced (g CO 2 e/MJ).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal cycling-driven microstructural changes of eutectic Al–Si phase change materials in SS304 containers revealed by multi-modal imaging

Aluminum-based Al–Si alloys are widely used as phase change materials (PCMs) in thermal energy storage (TES) systems owing to their high volumetric latent heat and superior thermal conductivity. However, their long-term reliability is limited by degradation processes that remain insufficiently understood. In this work, we employ a multimodal, correlative characterization framework to systematically resolve the degradation behavior of eutectic Al–Si PCMs in contact with SS304 containers under repeated thermal cycling. By integrating high-resolution electron microscopy, three-dimensional X-ray fluorescence (3D XRF) imaging, and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), we directly link spatially resolved compositional and microstructural evolution to changes in thermophysical properties. The correlative analysis reveals that elemental leaching of Fe, Cr, and Ni from the stainless-steel container into the PCM drives the formation of intermetallic compounds (IMCs) both at the interface and within the bulk PCM, leading to pronounced compositional heterogeneity. These interfacial reactions and diffusion-induced transformations progressively destabilize the Al–Si eutectic, reducing the effective phase-transforming fraction. Consistent with these observations, DSC measurements show a decrease in melting temperature and latent heat of fusion with thermal cycling. These results underscore the critical influence of interfacial reactions and material compatibility on the stability, durability, and overall performance of Al–Si-based TES systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in African easterly wave activity due to climate change

African easterly waves significantly influence regional hydroclimate, making it crucial to understand how global warming will impact their activity. Here, we investigate future changes in wave activity and assess the underlying mechanisms using an ensemble of Earth system models. We find a robust increase in wave activity over the Sahel–Sahara region by the end of the 21st century under two emission scenarios. This intensification is linked to increased baroclinicity associated with a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient between the Guinea Coast and the Sahara. Our results also indicate that low-level warming enhances the waves by reinforcing monsoon flow, leading to increased convergence and vertical motion along the intertropical discontinuity. These energetic alterations significantly modify the conditions that currently produce these waves. Overall, our findings suggest that changes in wave activity could impact the transport of Saharan dust and mesoscale convective activity over the Sahel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Ecosystem as Super-Organ/ism, Revisited: Scaling Hydraulics to Forests under Climate Change

Synopsis Classic debates in community ecology focused on the complexities of considering an ecosystem as a super-organ or organism. New consideration of such perspectives could clarify mechanisms underlying the dynamics of forest carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and water vapor loss, important for predicting and managing the future of Earth’s ecosystems and climate system. Here, we provide a rubric for considering ecosystem traits as aggregated, systemic, or emergent, i.e., representing the ecosystem as an aggregate of its individuals or as a metaphorical or literal super-organ or organism. We review recent approaches to scaling-up plant water relations (hydraulics) concepts developed for organs and organisms to enable and interpret measurements at ecosystem-level. We focus on three community-scale versions of water relations traits that have potential to provide mechanistic insight into climate change responses of forest CO2 and H2O gas exchange and productivity: leaf water potential (Ψcanopy), pressure volume curves (eco-PV), and hydraulic conductance (Keco). These analyses can reveal additional ecosystem-scale parameters analogous to those typically quantified for leaves or plants (e.g., wilting point and hydraulic vulnerability) that may act as thresholds in forest responses to drought, including growth cessation, mortality, and flammability. We unite these concepts in a novel framework to predict Ψcanopy and its approaching of critical thresholds during drought, using measurements of Keco and eco-PV curves. We thus delineate how the extension of water relations concepts from organ- and organism-scales can reveal the hydraulic constraints on the interaction of vegetation and climate and provide new mechanistic understanding and prediction of forest water use and productivity.

Zoology↗
DOE OSTI2025

An alternative method of changing the pulse duration in a stretcher-compressor pair by changing the gas pressure in the compressor

The relatively narrow bandwidth of neodymium glass requires a much larger stretch ratio of chirped-pulse amplification (CPA) systems. This factor, together with a large incident angle on the gratings, makes glass CPA systems extremely sensitive to the refractive index of the medium in the stretcher-compressor. High sensitivity of the stretcher-compressor pair for hybrid optical parametric chirped-pulse amplification and an Nd:glass laser to the refractive index was demonstrated in air, vacuum, and carbon dioxide, and a pulse duration close to the transform limit was reached. An alternative way to change the pulse duration was proposed. The pulse duration from the best compression of 500 fs to 30 ps was smoothly varied by changing the air pressure from 10 -6 Torr to 1 atm in the compressor and up to 52 ps in carbon dioxide, while the stretcher and compressor remained untouched. Finally, excellent agreement of the measured pulse duration with theoretical calculations was demonstrated.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the mass-changing, charge-changing, and production cross sections of 11 C, 11 B, and 10 B nuclei in 12 C + p interactions at 13.5 GeV/𝑐 per nucleon

A good knowledge of nuclear fragmentation cross sections is important to interpret the fluxes of secondary cosmic rays from the Galaxy. Here we report new measurements of nuclear fragmentation with the NA61/SHINE experiment at the CERN SPS. The specific focus is on cross sections important for the production of boron in the Galaxy from the interactions of 12 C nuclei with hydrogen in the interstellar medium, including the contribution from the decay of the short-lived 11 C fragments. The data were taken with the secondary 12 C beam at beam momentum of 13.5 GeV/𝑐per nucleon and two fixed targets, polyethylene (CH 2 ) and graphite (C), from which we derive the cross sections of carbon on hydrogen. We present the measurement of the fragmentation cross sections of 11 C, 11 B, and 10 B as well as the mass- and charge-changing cross sections.

nuclear fragmentation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Post-processing of phase change material in a zero-change commercial silicon photonic process

Integration of phase change material (PCM) with photonic integrated circuits can transform large-scale photonic systems by providing non-volatile control over phase and amplitude. The next generation of commercial silicon photonic processes can benefit from the addition of PCM to enable ultra-low power, highly reconfigurable, and compact photonic integrated circuits for large-scale applications. Despite all the advantages of PCM-based photonics, today’s commercial foundries do not provide them in their silicon photonic processes yet. We demonstrate the first-ever electrically programmable PCM device that is monolithically post-processed in a commercial foundry silicon photonics process using a few fabrication steps and coarse-resolution photolithography. These devices achieved 1.4 dB/μm of amplitude switching contrast using a thin layer of 12.5 nm GeSbTe in this work. We have also characterized the reconfiguration speed as well as repeatability of these devices over 20,000 switching cycles. Our solution enables non-volatile photonic VLSI systems that can be fabricated at low cost and high reliability in a commercial foundry process, paving the way for the development of non-volatile programmable photonic integrated circuits for a variety of emerging applications.

Optics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the mass-changing, charge-changing, and production cross sections of C 11 , B 11 , and B 10 nuclei in C 12 + p interactions at 13.5 GeV / c per nucleon

A good knowledge of nuclear fragmentation cross sections is important to interpret the fluxes of secondary cosmic rays from the Galaxy. Here we report new measurements of nuclear fragmentation with the NA61/SHINE experiment at the CERN SPS. The specific focus is on cross sections important for the production of boron in the Galaxy from the interactions of C 12 nuclei with hydrogen in the interstellar medium, including the contribution from the decay of the short-lived C 11 fragments. The data were taken with the secondary C 12 beam at beam momentum of 13.5 GeV / c per nucleon and two fixed targets, polyethylene ( CH 2 ) and graphite (C), from which we derive the cross sections of carbon on hydrogen. We present the measurement of the fragmentation cross sections of C 11 , B 11 , and B 10 as well as the mass- and charge-changing cross sections.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy

Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries’ potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation’s producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revisiting the Role of Ocean Circulation Changes in Polar Ocean Heat Transport Anomalies under Global Warming

In response to greenhouse gas forcing, climate models predict that poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) weakens in the Southern Ocean but increases in the Arctic. The role of ocean circulation changes in this OHT response has been evaluated by decomposing OHT anomalies into a dynamic component (holding ocean temperature fixed while circulation evolves) and a thermodynamic component (holding ocean circulation fixed while temperature evolves). However, ocean temperature changes are themselves shaped by circulation changes through redistribution of the existing heat reservoir and subsequent effects on air–sea heat fluxes. The thermodynamic component can therefore be influenced by circulation changes, making the standard thermodynamic–dynamic decomposition incomplete for isolating the role of circulation changes in OHT anomalies. To address this issue, we use a passive–active decomposition to assess the relative contributions of ocean circulation and passive ocean temperature changes to polar OHT anomalies in a fully coupled climate model. Passive temperature changes are defined as those thermally forced by the atmosphere in the absence of circulation changes. In this passive–active decomposition, an advective term involving both circulation and passive temperature changes remains ambiguous—classifying it as active implies circulation changes dominate Southern Ocean OHT anomalies, whereas classifying it as passive implies temperature changes dominate. However, both interpretations imply that ocean circulation changes have a much weaker effect on polar OHT anomalies than inferred from the standard decomposition. In conclusion, these results help reconcile conclusions from studies using the standard decomposition with those using passive tracer methods to assess the role of circulation changes in polar OHT anomalies.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2025

A change language for ontologies and knowledge graphs

Ontologies and knowledge graphs (KGs) are general-purpose computable representations of some domain, such as human anatomy, and are frequently a crucial part of modern information systems. Most of these structures change over time, incorporating new knowledge or information that was previously missing. Managing these changes is a challenge, both in terms of communicating changes to users and providing mechanisms to make it easier for multiple stakeholders to contribute. To fill that need, we have created KGCL, the Knowledge Graph Change Language (https://github.com/INCATools/kgcl), a standard data model for describing changes to KGs and ontologies at a high level, and an accompanying human-readable Controlled Natural Language (CNL). This language serves two purposes: a curator can use it to request desired changes, and it can also be used to describe changes that have already happened, corresponding to the concepts of “apply patch” and “diff” commonly used for managing changes in text documents and computer programs. Another key feature of KGCL is that descriptions are at a high enough level to be useful and understood by a variety of stakeholders—e.g. ontology edits can be specified by commands like “add synonym ‘arm’ to ‘forelimb’” or “move ‘Parkinson disease’ under ‘neurodegenerative disease’.” We have also built a suite of tools for managing ontology changes. These include an automated agent that integrates with and monitors GitHub ontology repositories and applies any requested changes and a new component in the BioPortal ontology resource that allows users to make change requests directly from within the BioPortal user interface. Overall, the KGCL data model, its CNL, and associated tooling allow for easier management and processing of changes associated with the development of ontologies and KGs.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical root responses to global changes: A synthesis

Tropical ecosystems face escalating global change. These shifts can disrupt tropical forests' carbon (C) balance and impact root dynamics. Since roots perform essential functions such as resource acquisition and tissue protection, root responses can inform about the strategies and vulnerabilities of ecosystems facing present and future global changes. However, root trait dynamics are poorly understood, especially in tropical ecosystems. We analyzed existing research on tropical root responses to key global change drivers: warming, drought, flooding, cyclones, nitrogen (N) deposition, elevated (e) CO 2 , and fires. Based on tree species- and community-level literature, we obtained 266 root trait observations from 93 studies across 24 tropical countries. We found differences in the proportion of root responsiveness to global change among different global change drivers but not among root categories. In particular, we observed that tropical root systems responded to warming and eCO 2 by increasing root biomass in species-scale studies. Drought increased the root: shoot ratio with no change in root biomass, indicating a decline in aboveground biomass. Despite N deposition being the most studied global change driver, it had some of the most variable effects on root characteristics, with few predictable responses. Episodic disturbances such as cyclones, fires, and flooding consistently resulted in a change in root trait expressions, with cyclones and fires increasing root production, potentially due to shifts in plant community and nutrient inputs, while flooding changed plant regulatory metabolisms due to low oxygen conditions. The data available to date clearly show that tropical forest root characteristics and dynamics are responding to global change, although in ways that are not always predictable. This synthesis indicates the need for replicated studies across root characteristics at species and community scales under different global change factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗