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DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamic Assurance of Autonomous Systems through Ground Control Software

Assurance cases are being increasingly acknowledged as a way to build trust in complex systems with autonomous capabilities [1]. An assurance case is a comprehensive, defensible, and valid justification that a system will function as intended for the specific mission and operating environment. Such justifications for systems with autonomous capabilities are often based on various probabilistic quantifications [2]. Due to the dynamic nature of the environmental conditions in which these systems operate, as well as the changing nature of the autonomous systems themselves, these probabilistic quantifications cannot be simply estimated once during design time. Rather, they need to be continually evaluated during systems operations to ensure that the assurance case justifications are valid. We refer to the assurance case that combines both the static and dynamic elements as a Dynamic Assurance Case (DAC). Such complex systems with autonomous capabilities are often deployed with a Ground Control Software (GCS) component to enable remote operation. Whether the system is composed of a single unit or a fleet of units, deployed distributed or in remote environments, GCS acts as a window into the behavior of the deployed system. It receives telemetry from the system, issues commands to the system and provides various functionalities to visualize the system performance. We propose a dynamic assurance framework where the GCS acts as a relay between the autonomous system and its DAC. GCS can be used to measure both unit-specific as well as system-wide probabilistic quantifications using the incoming telemetry. We embed these quantifications throughout the DAC as variables that can be updated by external sources. We use the GCS to periodically update these variables, which allows us to continually evaluate the formally defined assurance case justifications. We demonstrate our dynamic assurance framework in the NASA Ames project Troupe1 that aims at developing a fleet of rovers capable of au- tonomously mapping their environment. The rovers work cooperatively, each collecting data for different parts of the environment. Each rover runs an identical core Flight System (cFS) [4] application. Troupe1 uses OpenC3 Cosmos [5] as the ground system, and AdvoCATE [3] to capture the system DAC. We show how we can measure both rover-specific and system-wide quantifications in Cosmos using its Ruby scripting editor and pass them into the DAC modelled in AdvoCATE. Then, we show how these incoming variables can be embedded in different parts of the DAC and how effects of their updates can be observed

Irfan Sljivo↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dynamic Assurance of Autonomous Systems through Ground Control Software∗

dynamic assurance case↗

NASA NTRS2005

Chapter 21 - Avionics

This Section presents general guidance for flight testing of avionics systems. Due to the complex and ever changing nature of avionics systems, specific detailed test methods and analysis techniques are left to current and future system specific AGARDographs such as references 21-1 and 21-2. This section will provide descriptions of test methods which are generic to most current and future avionics systems. The field of avionics systems was divided into four general categories (autopilot, navigation and communication, offensive, and defensive) and a fifth overall test category of integration. This was accomplished only for the convenience in presenting the material. These categories are not meant to encompass all avionics systems but are intended to be sufficiently general to enable a systematic discussion of the testing of the basic types of avionics systems.

Ron Mahlum↗

NASA NTRS2024

Scenario Setup and Forcing Data for Impact Model Evaluation and Impact Attribution Within the Third Round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

Inter Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Projec↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Liquid Nitrogen System for Chamber A: A Change from Original Forced Flow Design to a Natural Flow (Thermo Siphon) System

NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston is currently supplementing its 20K helium refrigeration system to meet the new requirements for testing the James Web Space Telescope in the environmental control Chamber-A (65 dia x 120 high) in Building 32. The new system is required to meet the various operating modes which include a high 20K heat load, a required temperature stability at the load, rapid (but controlled) cool down and warm up and bake out of the chamber. This paper will present the proposed modifications to the existing helium system(s) to incorporate the new requirements and the integration of the new helium refrigerator with the existing two 3.5KW 20K helium refrigerators. In addition, the floating pressure process control philosophy to achieve high efficiency over the operating range (40% to 100% of the refrigeration system capacity), and the required temperature stability of +/- 0.25 K at the load will be discussed. The refrigeration systems ability to naturally seek the operating conditions under various loads and thus minimizing operator involvement and the over all improvements to the system operability and the reliability will be explained.

Homan, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sulfur speciation in dacitic melts using X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy of the S K -edge (S-XANES): Consideration of radiation-induced changes and the implications for sulfur in natural arc systems

Abstract The synchrotron technique of micro X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy at the sulfur K-edge (S-XANES) provides a unique opportunity to measure the proportion of different oxidation states of sulfur (S) in silicate glasses. Although applied extensively in the analysis of basaltic silicate glasses, few S-XANES studies have investigated variations in S oxidation states with fO2 in felsic silicate glasses. In addition, no study has systematically compared the S-XANES results obtained from the same samples at different photon flux densities to quantify the relationship between exposure time and changes in S speciation in silicate glass, as has been done for Fe and V. This study evaluates observed differences in S speciation measured in experimentally produced H2O-saturated dacitic glasses over a range of reducing to oxidizing conditions (from log fO2 = ΔFMQ-0.7 to ΔFMQ+3.3; FMQ is the fayalite-magnetite-quartz mineral redox buffer) and equilibrated at 1000 °C and 300 MPa. S-XANES spectra were collected at three different photon flux densities using three microspectroscopy beamlines. As is observed in S-XANES analyses of basaltic silicate glasses, beam-induced changes to the S6+/ΣS are observed as a function of photon flux density and beam exposure time. Our results demonstrate that silicate glasses of dacitic composition undergo beam-induced photo-reduction in samples equilibrated at ΔFMQ > +1.75 and photo-oxidation if equilibrated at ΔFMQ < +1. The time required to observe beam-induced changes in the spectra varies as a function of flux density, and our study establishes an upper photon density limit at ~1.0 × 1012 photons/µm2. The S6+/ΣS calculated from spectra collected below this absorbed photon limit at intermediate flux densities (~1–4 × 109 photons/s per µm2) are affected by beam damage, as no conditions were found to be completely free of beam-induced changes. However, the S6+/ΣS ratios calculated below the limit at intermediate flux densities are consistent with thermodynamic constraints, demonstrating that S6+/ΣS ratios calculated from S-XANES spectra can be considered reliable for estimating the oxygen fugacity. Our results carry important implications for the S budget of felsic magmas and dissolution mechanisms in evolved melts. While our results from all three flux densities show the presence of S4+ dissolved in relatively oxidized (ΔFMQ > +1.75) dacitic glass, even in the spectra exposed to the lowest photon densities, we are unable to rule out the possibility that the S4+ signal is the result of instantaneous X-ray irradiation induced beam damage using S-XANES alone. When our spectra are compared to S-XANES spectra from basaltic silicate glasses, important differences exist in the solubility of S2– and S6+ between dacitic silicate melts, pointing to differences in solubility mechanisms as melt composition changes. This study highlights the need for further investigation into beam damage systematics, presence of S4+, and the solubility mechanisms of different oxidation states of S as silicate melt composition changes.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS2015

Langley Research Center Utility Risk from Future Climate Change

The successful operation of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) depends on services provided by several public utility companies. These include Newport News Waterworks, Dominion Virginia Power, Virginia Natural Gas and Hampton Roads Sanitation District. LaRC's plan to respond to future climate change should take into account how these companies plan to avoid interruption of services while minimizing cost to the customers. This report summarizes our findings from publicly available documents on how each company plans to respond. This will form the basis for future planning for the Center. Our preliminary findings show that flooding and severe storms could interrupt service from the Waterworks and Sanitation District but the potential is low due to plans in place to address climate change on their system. Virginia Natural Gas supplies energy to produce steam but most current steam comes from the Hampton trash burning plant, thus interruption risk is low. Dominion Virginia Power does not address climate change impacts on their system in their public reports. The potential interruption risk is considered to be medium. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District is projecting a major upgrade of their system to mitigate clean water inflow and infiltration. This will reduce infiltration and avoid overloading the pump stations and treatment plants.

De Young, Russell J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-31979-DND

The rapid, and in many cases, unprecedented changes in the Arctic climate system observed since 1979 are having devastating impacts on both natural and human systems. These changes are marked by warming Arctic temperatures, rapid declines in sea ice and snow cover, permafrost thaw, mountain glacier melt, and Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss. A common thread through each of these changes is the impact on the surface energy budget. However, our understanding of the controls on and variability of the Arctic surface energy budget is incomplete and this contributes to the significant biases in the climate models. To better understand the controls on the variability of the Arctic surface energy budget and CMIP5 model biases, we use an atmospheric regime-based perspective of the Arctic surface energy budget decomposing variability by atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic properties.

Patrick C. Taylor↗

NASA NTRS1976

On the stability of the solutions of the general problem of three bodies

The extent through which the initial conditions of a given three-body system may be varied without completely changing the qualitative nature of the subsequent system evolution is investigated. It is assumed that the three masses are equal, all initial velocities are zero, the first two bodies initially lie on the x-axis, and the position of the third body is confined to a specific region of space. Analysis of the system evolution for different initial positions of the third body shows that there is a whole area or 'island' in the x-y plane throughout which the initial position of the third body may be moved in a continuous fashion to produce an evolution which also changes in a continuous manner. A Monte Carlo approach is adopted to determine the full extent of this island in the general problem. It is concluded that the stability of a full solution may be directly related to the size of its island in phase space.

Standish, E. M., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Arctic Ocean

The Arctic Ocean is the smallest of the Earth's four major oceans, covering 14x10(exp 6) sq km located entirely within the Arctic Circle (66 deg 33 min N). It is a major player in the climate of the north polar region and has a variable sea ice cover that tends to increase its sensitivity to climate change. Its temperature, salinity, and ice cover have all undergone changes in the past several decades, although it is uncertain whether these predominantly reflect long-term trends, oscillations within the system, or natural variability. Major changes include a warming and expansion of the Atlantic layer, at depths of 200-900 m, a warming of the upper ocean in the Beaufort Sea, a considerable thinning (perhaps as high as 40%) of the sea ice cover, a lesser and uneven retreat of the ice cover (averaging approximately 3% per decade), and a mixed pattern of salinity increases and decreases.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VIPER Lunar Rover Agile Mission Systems

Agile development methods, which have gone from outlier to mainstream in software development, are poised to expand into all aspects of space mission development. Modern software development operates on a principle of continuous deployment, where progress is verified not with conventional metrics, but with a continuous build, available to key stakeholders, enabling direct examination of the state of the code base, and assessment of progress through demonstration of capability. Delivery times are measured in weeks, not months. Stakeholders are part of the process on an ongoing basis. The cost of change is comparatively low and requirements, which often are not precisely defined at the start of a project, may be iteratively refined in a series of agile development cycles. Agile methods are compatible with traditional system engineering methods and may be tailored to the space operations environment. The low cost of change and iterative development cycles of agile enable requirements to be defined as outcomes and constraints, with design details to be refined during the development cycle. We are now at a point where agile methods may be extended beyond software, to Mission Systems, including the Mission Operations System and the Ground Data System. For NASA’s VIPER Lunar Rover Mission, scheduled to land at a lunar pole in late 2023, we are developing the Mission System using agile methods. As in agile software, where the measure of progress is working code, in agile mission system development, the measure of capability is what we can demonstrate. Demonstrations over presentations. We demonstrate mission system capability using simulations. The concept of operations, from commanding, to driving the rover, to how we downlink images for evaluation for a near-real time command cycle, will be tested and proven in simulation, years before we begin the traditional simulation cycle for training. “Say it then simulate it.” We develop and refine our designs using simulations, with an emphasis on new components of the system that are not well known early. For example, the required duration of a mission planning cycle for a lunar surface asset such as VIPER, that operates twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week, with continuous communications and a unique set of constraints based on the physics of the lunar poles and the line of site to Earth, is a unique problem in mission planning that is unlikely to be solved in a series of meetings. A small number of requirements specifying the outcomes may serve as the jumping off point to an agile development cycle, with demonstration in simulations. We have already demonstrated this process with simulations of rover driver decision time. VIPER is driven using near-real time command and control to waypoints. The driver decision time between waypoints is a fundamental enabling unit of productivity to accomplish the mission timeline. We have validated driver decision time in simulations of rover driving at the lunar South Pole, using the prototype mission tools for driving, command and control. The capability to develop and refine designs using simulations as part of agile Mission System development cycle changes the nature of team interactions, creating a focus on doing, rather than analyzing and documenting. Waterfall development cycles were, in part, a product of the significant cost of change in the early days of spaceflight. When the cost of change is high, it is vital to get your requirements right at the outset, because the system will be built to those specifications, and, when change is expensive, you better get it right early. However, modern technology has greatly lowered the cost of change, enabling iterative, rapid development cycles, in which key operations concepts may be tested and refined during development. Extending agile development to the Mission System for VIPER is a significant step in moving agile development methods for space operations beyond software, to the Mission System.

Agile↗

NASA NTRS2017

Pressure-Fed LOX/LCH4 Reaction Control System for Spacecraft: Transient Modeling and Thermal Vacuum Hotfire Test Results

An integrated cryogenic liquid oxygen, liquid methane (LOX/LCH4) reaction control system (RCS) was tested at NASA Glenn Research Center's Plum Brook Station in the Spacecraft Propulsion Research Facility (B-2) under vacuum and thermal vacuum conditions. The RCS is a subsystem of the Integrated Cryogenic Propulsion Test Article (ICPTA), a pressure-fed LOX/LCH4 propulsion system composed of a single 2,800 lbf main engine, two 28 lbf RCS engines, and two 7 lbf RCS engines. Propellants are stored in four 48 inch diameter 5083 aluminum tanks that feed both the main engine and RCS engines in parallel. Helium stored cryogenically in a composite overwrapped pressure vessel (COPV) flows through a heat exchanger on the main engine before being used to pressurize the propellant tanks to a design operating pressure of 325 psi. The ICPTA is capable of simultaneous main engine and RCS operation. The RCS engines utilize a coil-on-plug (COP) ignition system designed for operation in a vacuum environment, eliminating corona discharge issues associated with a high voltage lead. There are two RCS pods on the ICPTA, with two engines on each pod. One of these two engines is a heritage flight engine from Project Morpheus. Its sea level nozzle was removed and replaced by an 85:1 nozzle machined using Inconel 718, resulting in a maximum thrust of 28 lbf under altitude conditions. The other engine is a scaled down version of the 28 lbf engine, designed to match the core and overall mixture ratios as well as other injector characteristics. This engine can produce a maximum thrust of 7 lbf with an 85:1 nozzle that was additively manufactured using Inconel 718. Both engines are film-cooled and capable of limited duration gas-gas and gas-liquid operation, as well as steady-state liquid-liquid operation. Each pod contains one of each version, such that two engines of the same thrust level can be fired as a couple on opposite pods. The RCS feed system is composed of symmetrical 3/8 inch lines that tap off of the main propellant manifold to send LOX and LCH4 outboard to the RCS pods. A Thermodynamic Vent System (TVS) is used to condition propellants at each pod by venting through an orifice and then routing the cold expansion products back through tubing that is welded along a large portion of the main RCS feed lines. Prior to final installation on the ICPTA, the RCS engines were tested in a small vacuum chamber at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) Energy Systems Test Area (ESTA) to verify functionality of the new COP ignition system and check out operation of the vacuum nozzles. After engine-level testing, the RCS engines were installed on the vehicle and a series of integrated hot-fire tests were performed at JSC consisting of various pulsing and steady-state firings as well as integrated main engine/RCS operation. The ICPTA was then integrated into the Plum Brook B-2 facility for vacuum and thermal/vacuum testing. Testing in the B-2 facility was composed of multiple thermal and pressure environments. The first set of tests were performed under ambient temperature and altitude pressure conditions. These tests consisted of a range of minimum impulse bit (MIB) pulsing sequences with low duty cycle, analogous to a coast phase in which the RCS is primarily used for station keeping. The primary goal of this sequence is to understand how propellant conditions were effected without an active TVS. In this scenario, consistent gas-gas operation is desirable since it results in a smaller MIB and more efficient propellant consumption. Multiple skin thermocouples are mounted on the feedlines, in addition to a submerged thermocouple on each commodity, in order to gather thermal data on the system. Higher duty cycle pulsing tests were then performed, analogous to an ascent or landing mission phase. The primary goal of this sequence was to examine how well the engines self-conditioned without active TVS when starting from a quiescent state. The TVS was then activated during some tests to demonstrate the capability to quickly condition the engines for higher pulsing demand scenarios. A thermocouple at the TVS outlet allows for the calculation of energy absorbed by the vented propellant. Lastly, tests with longer pulses and multiple engines firing either in sequence or simultaneously were run in order to gather transient system response data on waterhammer. Six total high-speed pressure transducers are installed on the RCS system, one sensor at the end of each propellant manifold line on the pods, and one at the tap-off location for each commodity. This will allow for the accurate characterization of waterhammer in the system under various propellant conditions and firing sequences. Other instrumentation for this test series includes nozzle throat thermocouples, chamber pressure measurement, heat soakback measurement, and tank wall plume impingement temperature measurement. The next set of tests were performed to demonstrate simultaneous main engine and RCS operation. Data from this test will be used to examine if there is any change to nominal operation of the RCS as a result of feed system interaction or other phenomenon. Some of these tests began under high vacuum conditions (target ambient pressure less than 1x10(exp -3) torr) and others began at altitude conditions. The last set of tests were performed with the B-2 cold wall active. Under these tests, many of the same low duty cycle MIB tests were repeated in order to characterize how propellant conditions changed with the lower heat leak. In this scenario the RCS manifold experiences much less heat leak, resulting in a change to how well the engines self-condition. As a result, an increase in maximum waterhammer pressures and a change in natural frequency of the system was expected due to higher density propellants. The lower heat leak should also result in a change to the MIB pulse profile, and data will be examined to understand how MIB repeatability is affected in the different operating environments. Parallel to the test efforts, a set of transient model development efforts were made to predict RCS performance. The primary effort was aimed at producing a SINDA/FLUINT model to predict propellant conditioning up to the engine inlet as a function of different environmental and operating parameters, with the goal of predicting chamber pressure, TVS performance, and propellant consumption over time. Preliminary results for this effort will be presented in comparison with test data. Additional modeling efforts were made using SINDA/FLUINT to predict waterhammer in the system since the software is capable of handling multiphase transient fluid dynamics. These results will be compared with the high-speed pressure transducer test data for validation purposes.

Atwell, Matthew J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Recursive dynamics algorithm for multibody systems with prescribed motion

This paper uses spatial operator techniques to develop a new algorithm for the dynamics of multibody systems with hinges undergoing prescribed motion. This algorithm is spatially recursive, and its computational complexity grows only linearly with the number of degrees of freedom in the system. Its structure is a hybrid of known recursive forward and inverse dynamics algorithms for regular multibody systems. Changes to the prescribed/nonprescribed nature of hinges can be implemented during run time since they are handled with very low overhead in the algorithm.

Jain, Abhinandan↗

NASA NTRS2001

Welcome to NASA's Earth Science Enterprise

There are strong scientific indications that natural change in the Earth system is being accelerated by human intervention. As a result, planet Earth faces the possibility of rapid environmental changes that would have a profound impact on all nations. However, we do not fully understand either the short-term effects of our activities, or their long-term implications - many important scientific questions remain unanswered. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is working with the national and international scientific communities to establish a sound scientific basis for addressing these critical issues through research efforts coordinated under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, and the World Climate Research Program. The Earth Science Enterprise is NASA's contribution to the U.S. Global Change Research Program. NASA's Earth Science Enterprise will use space- and surface-based measurement systems to provide the scientific basis for understanding global change. The space-based components will provide a constellation of satellites to monitor the Earth from space. A major component of the Earth Science Enterprise is the Earth Observing System (EOS). The overall objective of the EOS Program is to determine the extent, causes, and regional consequences of global climate change. EOS will provide sustained space-based observations that will allow researchers to monitor climate variables over time to determine trends. A constellation of EOS satellites will acquire global data, beginning in 1998 and extending well into the 21st century.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2006

Satellite Sounder-Based OLR-, Cloud- and Atmospheric Temperature Climatologies for Climate Analyses

Global energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system may change due to natural and man-made climate variations. For example, changes in the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) can be regarded as a crucial indicator of climate variations. Clouds play an important role -still insufficiently assessed in the global energy balance on all spatial and temporal scales, and satellites provide an ideal platform to measure cloud and large-scale atmospheric variables simultaneously. The TOVS series of satellites were the first to provide this type of information since 1979. OLR [Mehta and Susskind], cloud cover and cloud top pressure [Susskind et al] are among the key climatic parameters computed by the TOVS Pathfinder Path-A algorithm using mainly the retrieved temperature and moisture profiles. AIRS, regarded as the new and improved TOVS , has a much higher spectral resolution and greater S/N ratio, retrieving climatic parameters with higher accuracy. First we present encouraging agreements between MODIS and AIRS cloud top pressure (C(sub tp) and effective (A(sub eff), a product of infrared emissivity at 11 microns and physical cloud cover or A(sub c)) cloud fraction seasonal and interannual variabilities for selected months. Next we present validation efforts and preliminary trend analyses of TOVS-retrieved C(sub tp) and A(sub eff). For example, decadal global trends of the TOVS Path-A and ISCCP-D2 P(sub c), and A(sub eff)/A(sub c), values are similar. Furthermore, the TOVS Path-A and ISCCP-AVHRR [available since 19831 cloud fractions correlate even more strongly, including regional trends. We also present TOVS and AIRS OLR validation effort results and (for the longer-term TOVS Pathfinder Path-A dataset) trend analyses. OLR interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and both from the AIRS [Susskind et al] and TOVS OLR computations are in remarkably good agreement. Global monthly mean CERES and TOVS OLR time series show very good agreement in absolute values also. Finally, we will assess correlations among long-term trends of selected parameters, derived simultaneously from the TOVS Pathfinder Path-A datase

Molnar, Gyula I.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Linking Land Use Changes to Surface Water Quality Variability in Lake Victoria: Some Insights From Remote Sensing (GC41B-1101)

Various land use changes driven by urbanization, conversion of grasslands and woodlands into farmlands, intensification of agricultural practices, deforestation, land fragmentation and degradation are taking place in Africa. In Kenya, agriculture is the main driver of land use conversions. The impacts of these land use changes are observable in land cover maps, and eventually in the hydrological systems. Reduction or change of natural vegetation cover types increases the speed of surface runoff and reduces water and nutrient retention capacities. This can lead to high nutrient inputs into lakes, resulting in eutrophication, siltation and infestation of floating aquatic vegetation. To assess if changes in land use could be contributing to increased phytoplankton blooms and sediment loads into Lake Victoria, we analyzed land use land cover data from Landsat, as well as surface chlorophyll-a and total suspended matter from MODIS-Aqua sensor.

water quality↗