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Goals: Water budget-related dynamical phase space; Connect large-scale dynamical conditions to atmospheric water budget (including precipitation); Connect atmospheric water budget to cloud type distributions.
The observations, models, and theories relevant to the atmospheric dynamics and meteorology of Uranus are discussed. The available models for the large-scale heat transport and atmospheric dynamics as well as diagnostic interpretations of the Voyager data are reviewed. Some pertinent ideas and questions regarding the global circulation balance are considered, partly in comparison with other planetary atmospheres. The available data indicate atmospheric rotation at midlatitudes nearly 200 m/s faster than that of the planetary magnetic field. Analysis of the dynamical deformation of the shape and size of isobaric surfaces measured by the Voyager radio-occultation experiment suggests a subrotating equator at comparable altitudes. Infrared temperature retrievals above the cloud deck indicate a smaller equator-to-pole contrast than expected for purely radiative-convective equilibrium, but show local variations implying a latitudinally correlated decrease with altitude in the cloud-tracked wind.
A cloud-resolving model (CRM) is used to simulate the multiple-layer mixed-phase stratiform (MPS) clouds that occurred during a three-and-a-half day subperiod of the Department of Energy-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program s Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE). The CRM is implemented with an advanced two-moment microphysics scheme, a state-of-the-art radiative transfer scheme, and a complicated third-order turbulence closure. Concurrent meteorological, aerosol, and ice nucleus measurements are used to initialize the CRM. The CRM is prescribed by time-varying large-scale advective tendencies of temperature and moisture and surface turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat. The CRM reproduces the occurrences of the single- and double-layer MPS clouds as revealed by the M-PACE observations. However, the simulated first cloud layer is lower and the second cloud layer thicker compared to observations. The magnitude of the simulated liquid water path agrees with that observed, but its temporal variation is more pronounced than that observed. As in an earlier study of single-layer cloud, the CRM also captures the major characteristics in the vertical distributions and temporal variations of liquid water content (LWC), total ice water content (IWC), droplet number concentration and ice crystal number concentration (nis) as suggested by the aircraft observations. However, the simulated mean values differ significantly from the observed. The magnitude of nis is especially underestimated by one order of magnitude. Sensitivity experiments suggest that the lower cloud layer is closely related to the surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat; the upper cloud layer is probably initialized by the large-scale advective cooling/moistening and maintained through the strong longwave (LW) radiative cooling near the cloud top which enhances the dynamical circulation; artificially turning off all ice-phase microphysical processes results in an increase in LWP by a factor of 3 due to interactions between the excessive LW radiative cooling and extra cloud water; heating caused by phase change of hydrometeors could affect the LWC and cloud top height by partially canceling out the LW radiative cooling. It is further shown that the resolved dynamical circulation appears to contribute more greatly to the evolution of the MPS cloud layers than the parameterized subgrid-scale circulation.
With the possible exception of the lowest one or two scale heights, the dominant mode of circulation of Venus' atmosphere is a rapid, zonal, retrograde motion. Global albedo variations in the ultraviolet may reflect planetary scale waves propagating relative to the zonal winds. Other special phenomena such as cellular convection in the subsolar region and internal gravity waves generated in the interaction of the zonal circulation with the subsolar disturbance may also be revealed in ultraviolet imagery of the atmosphere. We discuss the contributions of experiments on the Orbiter and Entry Probes of Pioneer Venus toward unravelling the mystery of the planet's global circulation and the role played by waves, instabilities and convection therein
The influence of dynamics on model results is investigated via a 2D photochemical model. Three representations of atmospheric transport are tested in order to simulate total ozone and C-14 amounts after nuclear tests in the early 1960s. Three scenarios of NO(x) injections from a proposed fleet of stratospheric aircraft and their effects on ozone are simulated. The three dynamical formulations used are Dynamics A, a base dynamics used in previous work with this model; Dynamics B, a strong circulation dynamics discussed by Jackman et al. (1989); and Dynamics C, the dynamics used by Shia et al. (1989). The advective component of the stratosphere to the troposphere mass exchange rate is largest for Dynamics B (5.8 x 10 exp 17 kg/yr) and smallest for Dynamics C (1.4 x 10 exp 17 kg/yr), with the advective strat/trop exchange rate for Dynamics A (2.4 x 10 exp 17 kg/yr) being these two extremes. Ozone depletion from NO(x) injections of stratospheric aircraft showed a strong sensitivity to dynamics.
The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.
Experiments are described which show significant changes in the simulated large-scale dynamical circulation of a global model. Fixed clouds acting as zonally asymmetric radiative heat sources increase the generation of eddy available potential energy (EAPE) and the energy's conversion to eddy kinetic energy. Generation of EAPE by net radiative heating increases by 50% (0.11 W/sq m) for the fixed cloud experiment. The increase caused by the stationary component is much larger (approximately 100%), but it is partially compensated by a decrease caused by the transient component. A substantial increase is found in the variances of the planetary-scale stationary waves and the medium-scale waves of 2.7 day period. Although the sea surface temperatures are prescribed identically in both integrations, the changes in evaporation and precipitation are found to be much larger over the oceans than over the land.
Over the past forty years, numerous linear stability studies have been performed in order to explain the origin and structure of observed waves in the atmosphere. Of these studies, only a small fraction have considered the stability of time-dependent, zonally varying flow or the influence of radiative-photochemical feedbacks on the stability of zonally uniform flow. The stability of such flows is described, and these flows may yield important information concerning the origin, structure, and transient time scales of free waves in the atmosphere. During the period 1990 to 1991, a beta-plane model that couples radiative transfer, ozone advection, and ozone photochemistry with the quasigeostrophic dynamical circulation was developed in order to study the diabatic effects of Newtonian cooling and ozone-dynamics interaction on the linear stability of free planetary waves in the atmosphere. The stability of a basic state consisting of a westward-moving wave and a zonal mean jet was examined using a linearized, nondivergent barotropic model on sphere. The sensitivity of the stability of the flow to the strength and structure of the zonal jet was emphasized. The current research is focused on the following problems: (1) examination of the finite amplitude interactions among radiation, ozone, and dynamics; and (2) examination of the role of seasonal forcing in short-term climate variability. The plans for next year are presented.
Ocean circulation is a critical factor in determining the Earth's climate. Satellite altimetry has been proven a powerful technique for measuring the height of the sea surface for the study of global ocean circulation dynamics. A major objective of my research is to investigate the utility of altimeter data for ocean circulation studies. The 6 years' data record of TOPEX/POSEIDON have been analyzed to study the spatial and temporal characteristics of large-scale ocean variability. A major result obtained in 1998 is the discovery of large-scale oscillations in sea level with a period of 25 days in the Argentine Basin of the South Atlantic Ocean (see diagram). They exhibit a dipole pattern with counterclockwise rotational propagation around the Zapiola Rise (centered at 45S and 317E), a small seamount in the abyssal plain of the basin. The peak-to-trough amplitude is about 10 cm over a distance of 500-1000 km. The amplitude of these oscillations has large seasonal-to-interannual variations. The period and rotational characteristics of these oscillations are remarkably similar to the observations made by two current meters deployed near the ocean bottom in the region. What TOPEX/POSEIDON has detected apparently are manifestations of the movement of the entire water column (barotropic motion). The resultant transport variation is estimated to be about 50 x 10(exp 6) cubic M/S, which is about 50% of the total water transport in the region. Preliminary calculations suggest that these oscillations are topographically trapped waves. A numerical model of the South Atlantic is used to investigate the nature of and causes for these waves. A very important property of sea surface height is that it is directly related to the surface geostrophic velocity, which is related to deep ocean circulation through the density field. Therefore altimetry observations are not only useful for determining the surface circulation but also for revealing information about the deep ocean. Another objective of my research is to investigate the extent of information one can infer about the deep ocean from altimetric observations. The approach is data assimilation by ocean models. The objective is to develop a modeling/data assimilation system that will produce estimates of the 3-dimensional state of the ocean for the entire duration of the TOPEX/POSEIDON Mission.
The primary goal of this project is to investigate two aspects of upper stratosphere and mesosphere circulation dynamics using data from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite's (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (ISAMS) instruments. The first aspect involves observational analyses and comparison with model predictions for the polar night "4-day wave". The second project focus is the distribution of carbon monoxide (CO) in the middle atmosphere and circulation features that can be deduced from analyses of such a tracer and comparison with atmospheric circulation models.
The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter will provide the temporal mean seal level. So, secondly, we propose to compute the difference between these two surfaces (mean sea level minus general circulation dynamic topography). The result will be an estimate of the marine geoid, which is time invariant for the 5-year period under consideration. If this geoid is precise enough, it will permit a description of seasonal variability of the large-scale surface circulation. If there happens to be enough float data, it may be possible to infer the first vertical modes of this variability. Thus the main goal of our investigation is to determine the 3-D general circulation of the South Atlantic and the large-scale seasonal fluctuations. This last objective, however, may be restricted to the western part of the South Atlantic because float deployments have been scheduled only in the Brasil basin.
The diabatic effects of Newtonian cooling and ozone-dynamics interaction on the linear stability of free planetary waves in the atmosphere have been studied using a simple beta-plane model. The model couples radiative transfer, ozone advection, and ozone photochemistry with the quasi-geostrophic dynamical circulation. An analytical expression is derived which demonstrates the following: (1) the influence of meridional ozone advection on wave growth or decay depends on the wave and basic state vertical structures; and (2) photochemically accelerated cooling, which predominates in the upper stratosphere, augments the Newtonian cooling rate and is stabilizing. Attention is also given to the 1D linear stability problem which is numerically solved for a Charney basic state and for zonal mean basic states. It is shown that ozone heating generated by ozone-dynamics interaction in the stratosphere can reduce (enhance) the damping rates due to Newtonian cooling by as much as 50 percent for planetary waves of large vertical scale and maximum amplitude in the stratosphere.
The author has identified the following significant results. New Jersey's planned, regionalized network of sewage disposal facilities has been plotted on an ERTS-1 mosaic and circulation parameters for each of the planned outfall locations have been analyzed using the ERTS-1 imagery and comparative aircraft photography. Work is continuing on the circulation and dispersion of barge-dumped wastes in the New York Bight area. One of the largest remote sensing experiments ever attempted in this country was completed on April 7, 1973 during the ERTS-1 overpass. The test area included the northern portion of New Jersey and the Raritan Bay - New York Harbor area. Three NASA aircraft, two helicopters, nine surface vessels, 40 ground team personnel, and numerous oceanographic, radiometric, and meteorological equipment were deployed in an effort to characterize the surface and near-surface circulation dynamics in this 600 square mile area, during an entire tidal cycle. The analyses of these data in concert with all previous ERTS-1 overpasses will provide information that can lead to a better and more rational use of the nearshore marine environment. The data will be utilized to plan future outfall locations, regulating offshore disposal of wastes, etc.
Before the introduction of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (Q.B.O.) in the study of the solar atmosphere relationship by Labitzke (1987) and Labitzke and Van Loon (1988), the only region of the atmosphere where an effect of a change in solar activity was generally admitted was the mesosphere. The response of the mesosphere, in phase with the solar activity, was found to be about one order of magnitude above model expectancy (around 10 to 20 Kelvin). It was observed independently of the season and maximized around 70 km (Chanin et al. 1987). However, from the same study, it was shown that the response of the stratosphere of opposite sign, clearly seen during winter and autumn, was at the threshold of detection in spring and summer. In the stratosphere, it was shown later that the separation of the data taking into account the sign of the Q.B.O. amplifies the negative correlation of the stratospheric temperature with solar activity in winter; it then becomes more significantly negative for the East phase of the Q.B.O. than when the data are all mixed (Labitzke and Chanin 1988). The studies of the seasonal response of the atmosphere to solar effect is crucial to understand the possible mechanism responsible of such a solar activity Q.B.O. relationship, knowing that the global dynamic circulation is quite different according to the seasons. The question is examined as to whether such separation of the data according to the phase of the Q.B.O. has any impact on the solar response of the middle atmosphere for seasons other than winter.
The generation and evolution of the flow vorticity established by instream injector ramps in a high Mach number/high enthalpy scramjet combustor flow-field are described in detail for a number of computational cases. Classical fluid dynamic circulation is presented for these cases in order to clarify the spatial distribution and convection of the vorticity. The ability of the simulations to accurately represent Stokes Law of circulation is discussed and shown. In addition, the conservation of swirl (effectively the moment-of-momentum theorem) is presented for these flows. The impact of both turbulent diffusion and the vortex/ramp non-uniformity on the downstream mixing rate is clearly illustrated. A correlation over the length of the combustor between fuel-air mixing and a parameter called the vortex stirring length is demonstrated. Finally, computational results for a representative ramp injector are compared with experimental data. Influence of the stream vorticity on the effective turbulent Prandtl number used in the simulation is discussed.
The first oxygen isotope analysis of biogenic opal from lake sediments, from the Allerod/Younger Dryas transition in a core from Linsley Pond, Connecticut, gives an average estimate of a 6 C drop in temperature during the Younger Dryas. This shift represents temperatures during the bloom season, and may be less than the winter temperature drop. The sharp transition itself, with a duration of about 200 years, suggests that the temperature decrease may have been as large as 12 C. Previous estimates of the Allerod/Younger Dryas temperature shifts are controversial, and range from 3-20 C, suggesting that further interdisciplinary research on the same samples is warranted. One way that global climate change manifests itself is by redistributing energy throughout the globe. The Northern Hemisphere latitudinal temperature gradient during the late-glacial is at present a controversial topic. The magnitude of air temperature shifts during the Allerod/Younger Dryas (YD) oscillation are estimated from mid-latitude pollen records surrounding the North Atlantic to be 3-5 C in Europe [Lowe et al., 19941 and 3-4 C in the eastern US [Peteet et al., 1993]. In contrast, lake temperatures estimates derived from aquatic midge larvae in the Canadian eastern maritimes and Maine range from 6-20 C, with larger shifts at more southern sites [Levesque et al., 1997]. The magnitude of YD cooling in Greenland ice cores ranges from at least 7 C from the Bolling warming [Dansgaard et al., 1989] to 15 C - a more recent estimate from borehole temperatures [Cuffey et al., 1995]. The ice core geochemical records reveal that massive frequent and short-term (decadal or less) changes in atmospheric composition occurred throughout this event, suggesting a very dynamic circulation [Mayewski et al., 1993).
We present the European Russia Drought Atlas (ERDA) that covers the East European Plain to the Ural Mountains from 1400–2016 CE. Like the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA) for the Euro-Mediterranean region, the ERDA is a one-half degree gridded reconstruction of summer Palmer Drought Severity Indices estimated from a network of annual tree-ring chronologies. Ensemble point-by-point regression is used to generate the ERDA with the identical protocols used for developing the OWDA. Split calibration/validation tests of the ERDA indicate that it has significant skill over most of its domain and is much more skillful than the OWDA where they overlap in the western part of ERDA domain. Comparisons to historical droughts over European Russia additionally support the ERDA’s overall validity. The ERDA has been spatially smoothed and infilled using a local regression method to yield a spatially complete drought atlas back to 1400 CE. EOF analysis indicates that there are three principal modes of hydroclimatic variability in the ERDA. After Varimax rotation, these modes correlate significantly with independent climate data sets extending back to the late nineteenth century in a physically interpretable way and relate to atmospheric circulation dynamics of droughts and heatwaves over European Russia based on more recent instrumental data.
Shortwave cloud radiative effects (SWCREs), defined as the difference of the shortwave radiative flux between all-sky and clear-sky conditions at the surface, have been reported to play an important role in influencing the Earth's energy budget and temperature extremes. In this study, we employed a set of global climate models to examine the SWCRE responses to CO2, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and sulfate aerosols in boreal summer over the Northern Hemisphere. We found that CO2 causes positive SWCRE changes over most of the NH, and BC causes similar positive responses over North America, Europe, and eastern China but negative SWCRE over India and tropical Africa. When normalized by effective radiative forcing, the SWCRE from BC is roughly 3–5 times larger than that from CO2. SWCRE change is mainly due to cloud cover changes resulting from changes in relative humidity (RH) and, to a lesser extent, changes in cloud liquid water, circulation, dynamics, and stability. The SWCRE response to sulfate aerosols, however, is negligible compared to that for CO2 and BC because part of the radiation scattered by clouds under all-sky conditions will also be scattered by aerosols under clear-sky conditions. Using a multilinear regression model, it is found that mean daily maximum temperature (Tmax) increases by 0.15 and 0.13 K per watt per square meter (W m−2) increase in local SWCRE under the CO2 and BC experiment, respectively. When domain-averaged, the contribution of SWCRE change to summer mean Tmax changes was 10 %–30 % under CO2 forcing and 30 %–50 % under BC forcing, varying by region, which can have important implications for extreme climatic events and socioeconomic activities.