Lessons Learned When Using a Tiered Verification Process for Climate Data Analytics
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Peterson, Kara J.↗
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Quantifying the Impact of Transportation on Climate - Energy Analytics Dashboard: Preprint
The investment decisions within the nation's transportation sector have traditionally been prioritized and measured against safety and travel efficiency goals. Increasingly, federal, state, and local policies are requiring consideration of energy use and emissions in the design of our transportation infrastructure. Yet the processes, analytics, and knowledge to include these new metrics into transportation decisions are lacking. Although targeted studies and before and after analysis are performed from time to time, no comprehensive real-time monitoring systems provide energy and emissions to the same level as congestion and safety. To address this gap, this paper developed and demonstrated the Transportation Energy Analytics Dashboard, or TEAD, to raise awareness of the energy and emission impacts to the same level of observability as that of safety and mobility concerns.
ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
Towards an Open (Data) Science Analytics-Hub for Reproducible Multi-Model Climate Analysis at Scale
Open Science is key to future scientific research and promotes a deep transformation in the whole scientific research process encouraging the adoption of transparent and collaborative scientific approaches aimed at knowledge sharing. Open Science is increasingly gaining attention in the current and future research agenda worldwide. To effectively address Open Science goals, besides Open Access to results and data, it is also paramount to provide tools or environments to support the whole research process, in particular the design, execution and sharing of transparent and reproducible experiments, including data provenance (or lineage) tracking. This work introduces the Climate Analytics-Hub, a new component on top of the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), which joins big data approaches and parallel computing paradigms to provide an Open Science environment for reproducible multi-model climate change data analytics experiments at scale. An operational implementation has been set up at the SuperComputing Centre of the Euro- Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, with the main goal of becoming a reference Open Science hub in the climate community regarding the multi-model analysis based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
analytics-hub↗
Web-based Visual Analytics for Extreme Scale Climate Science
In this paper, we introduce a Web-based visual analytics framework for democratizing advanced visualization and analysis capabilities pertinent to large-scale earth system simulations. We address significant limitations of present climate data analysis tools such as tightly coupled dependencies, ineffi- cient data movements, complex user interfaces, and static visualizations. Our Web-based visual analytics framework removes critical barriers to the widespread accessibility and adoption of advanced scientific techniques. Using distributed connections to back-end diagnostics, we minimize data movements and leverage HPC platforms. We also mitigate system dependency issues by employing a RESTful interface. Our framework embraces the visual analytics paradigm via new visual navigation techniques for hierarchical parameter spaces, multi-scale representations, and interactive spatio-temporal data mining methods that retain details. Although generalizable to other science domains, the current work focuses on improving exploratory analysis of large-scale Community Land Model (CLM) and Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) simulations.
climate science↗
Agreement of Analytical and Simulation-Based Estimates of the Required Land Depth in Climate Models
Previous analytical and simulation-based analyses suggest that deeper land surface models are needed to realistically simulate the terrestrial thermal state in climate models, with implications for land-atmosphere interactions. Analytical approaches mainly focused on the subsurface propagation of harmonics such as the annual temperature signal, and a direct comparison with climate-change model output has been elusive. Here, this study addresses the propagation of a harmonic pulse fitted to represent the timescale and amplitude of anthropogenic warming. Its comparison to land model simulations with stepwise increased bottom boundary depth leads to an agreement between the simulation-based and analytical frameworks for long-term climate trends. Any depth increase gradually decreases the relative error in the subsurface thermodynamics, and a minimum depth of 170 m is recommended to simulate the ground climate adequately. The approach provides an accurate estimate of the required land-model depth for climate-change simulations and assesses the relative bias in insufficiently deep land models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios
An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework’s abstraction of “challenges to mitigation” and “challenges to adaptation” to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support “bottom-up” scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather
Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Applying AI to Help Predict Solar Power Output Over Time
Poster with results from ongoing research on re-training pv-vision to segment images of solar modules. Presenting at the Sandia Analytics for Climate, Energy, and Earth Sciences (ACEES) 2025 Symposium.
Sanghi, Ojas NMN [Sandia National Laboratories (SN↗
Distributed and cloud-based multi-model analytics experiments on large volumes of climate change data in the earth system grid federation eco-system
A case study on climate models intercomparison data analysis addressing several classes of multi-model experiments is being implemented in the context of the EU H2020 INDIGO-DataCloud project. Such experiments require the availability of large amount of data (multi-terabyte order) related to the output of several climate models simulations as well as the exploitation of scientific data management tools for large-scale data analytics. More specifically, the paper discusses in detail a use case on precipitation trend analysis in terms of requirements, architectural design solution, and infrastructural implementation. The experiment has been tested and validated on CMIP5 datasets, in the context of a large scale distributed testbed across EU and US involving three ESGF sites (LLNL, ORNL, and CMCC) and one central orchestrator site (PSNC).
Fiore, S.↗
Reducing the Analytical Bottleneck for Domain Scientists: Lessons from a Climate Data Visualization Case Study
The gap between large-scale data production rate and the rate of generation of data-driven scientific insights has led to an analytical bottleneck in scientific domains like climate, biology, etc. This is primarily due to the lack of innovative analytical tools that can help scientists efficiently analyze and explore alternative hypotheses about the data, and communicate their findings effectively to a broad audience. In this paper, by reflecting on a set of successful collaborative research efforts between with a group of climate scientists and visualization researchers, we introspect how interactive visualization can help reduce the analytical bottleneck for domain scientists.
climate↗
Separating the Wheat from the Chaff: Comparative Visual Cues for Transparent Diagnostics of Competing Models
Experts in data and physical sciences have to regularly grapple with the problem of competing models. Be it analytical or physics-based models, a cross-cutting challenge for experts is to reliably diagnose which model outcomes appropriately predict or simulate real-world phenomena. Expert judgment involves reconciling information across many, and often, conflicting criteria that describe the quality of model outcomes. In this paper, through a design study with climate scientists, we develop a deeper understanding of the problem and solution space of model diagnostics, resulting in the following contributions: i) a problem and task characterization using which we map experts’ model diagnostics goals to multi-way visual comparison tasks, ii) a design space of comparative visual cues for letting experts quickly understand the degree of disagreement among competing models and gauge the degree of stability of model outputs with respect to alternative criteria, and iii) design and evaluation of MyriadCues, an interactive visualization interface for exploring alternative hypotheses and insights about good and bad models by leveraging comparative visual cues. Here, we present case studies and subjective feedback by experts, which validate how MyriadCues enables more transparent model diagnostic mechanisms, as compared to the state of the art.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Guide to Determining Climate Zone by County: Building America and IECC 2021 Updates
This report describes the climate zone designations used by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building America Program. The report aims to help residential building stakeholders identify the appropriate climate zone designation for each county in the United States, including Hawaii and Alaska. Identifying the correct climate zone is important for many activities including residential construction projects, code compliance, energy analysis and modeling, and other analytical activities where climate zones impact the energy and moisture performance of residential buildings. This report supersedes the previous Building America publication: Guide to Determining Climate Regions by County, published in 2010. This report reflects climate designations used by the International Code Council (ICC) in the 2021 versions of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC), the International Residential Code (IRC), and other codes produced by ICC. The information provided here and associated data should be used for the most up-to-date information regarding climate zone designations in the United States.
2021 IECC↗
Drought and Extreme Heat Impacts to Data Centers in Northern California
Commonly, data centers are designed and operated on the assumption of stationarity of the climate. Historical weather data informs the basis of their design and operations. However, as a result of climate change, this assumption is not valid and poses a great risk for data centers. In the coming decades, Northern California’s drought and extreme heat risk is projected to increase significantly. This report provides a drought and extreme heat impacts assessment of data centers in this region. Expert solicitation of data center experts enabled a tailored approach to this report. We identify the climate variables and analytics relevant for assessing data center-specific impacts from extreme heat and drought and demonstrate how to access and understand future climate projections from climate models. We emphasize the importance of including future climate projections into data center design and planning. This report is an important first step towards building an effective extreme heat and drought adaptation strategy for data centers in Northern California. While our geographical focus in this report is Northern California, many findings in this report are broadly applicable.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)
Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Policy, Permit, Perform: Using City Benchmarking Data and Building Construction Permit History to Identify Energy Performance Improvements
The City of Portland (City) and Multnomah County 2015 Climate Action Plan targets a 40 percent reduction in carbon emissions below 1990 levels by 2030. To reach this goal, the plan includes a key objective to reduce the total energy use of existing buildings by 25 percent. Buildings are responsible for one-half of carbon emissions in Portland, Oregon, U.S., and improving their performance is critical to achieving the City’s climate goals. As part of its climate action planning, the City passed an ordinance on April 22, 2015, requiring commercial buildings 20,000 ft2 and larger to benchmark and disclose annual energy performance metrics through ENERGY STAR® Portfolio Manager® (ESPM), including greenhouse gas emissions, building energy use intensity (EUI) and ENERGY STAR scores. Twenty-five cities in the U.S. have adopted similar policies requiring energy benchmarking. These policies are generating a treasure trove of data about the drivers of building performance, but practitioners are only beginning to link benchmarking data to other datasets to produce actionable insight into improving building performance. In 2016, the City received a financial assistance award from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through the Cities Leading through Energy Analysis and Planning project (Award Number DE-0007737). Portland’s project evaluated the application of the DOE Building Energy Asset Score Tool and rating system developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to commercial buildings that report to the City. The City used building construction permit history to develop Asset Scores for a set of office buildings that reported energy performance for 2015 – the first year the City mandated energy benchmarking and reporting for commercial buildings 50,000 ft2 and larger. The primary project objective was to link energy benchmarking data and commercial building permit data to analyze commercial buildings systems that present the best, specific opportunities to improve energy performance. Integrating these datasets from two City departments, the Bureau of Development Services and the Bureau of Planning and Sustainability, could expand Portland’s use of analytics to inform climate policy decisions and strategic targeting of financial incentives for building owners and managers who are best positioned to improve the performance of their buildings. The project began with the commercial benchmarking data received for 340 commercial buildings that submitted calendar year 2015 energy reports. The City retained Research Into Action and Energy 350 (RIA team) to evaluate this self-reported benchmarking data. Based on a survey of 53 building managers, the RIA team found that most respondents used the City’s compliance tools, including a How-to Guide and Help Desk, and found access to utility data to be straightforward. However, almost one-third of the respondents encountered challenges when estimating the gross floor area (GFA), and some experienced confusion regarding the input of property use types and details into ESPM. Based on the RIA team’s recommendations, the City refined its How-to Guide, created online answers to frequently asked questions, and hosted office hour sessions to help building managers accurately characterize their building’s physical characteristics and operations in ESPM. Concurrently with the RIA team’s evaluation, the City worked with PNNL to estimate DOE Asset Score Preview (Preview) scores for 181 of the 340 commercial buildings that submitted ESPM reports to the City. Asset Score Tool is a web-based tool developed by PNNL for DOE to evaluate and rate the as-built energy efficiency of a building. Asset Score Tool’s full analysis capability runs a detailed energy model based on building geometry, age, envelope, lighting and mechanical systems using standard operating assumptions to give the building a score, similar to a miles per gallon rating for a car. Preview, a simplified deployment of the full Asset Score Tool, provides a preliminary score range using only seven data points, six of which are readily available in the ESPM benchmarking data. Analysis of the combined Preview scores and the operational ESPM scores identified buildings with a high potential for energy improvements through either retro-commissioning and retuning of existing operations or capital investments into building systems. The City contracted Whole Building Solutions (WBS) to mine building permit history and develop full Asset Scores for a subset of 26 office buildings that were eligible for both ENERGY STAR scores and Asset Scores. WBS researched permits and building plans to identify mechanical, lighting and envelope systems and other building characteristics necessary to complete Asset Scores. This historical data was recorded using the web-based Asset Score Tool, which evaluates the as designed energy efficiency of existing buildings. Much of this City information was available online after 2010; however, WBS had to search through microfiche files and the City’s database to obtain permit and plan history prior to 2010. Although building geometry, mechanical system type and basic envelope information was consistently identifiable, WBS found permit data gaps that prevented complete and accurate Asset Scores for most of the office buildings. If the City decides to develop Asset Scores based on building permit information in the future, WBS recommended requiring lighting plans, control diagrams and as-built drawings that reflect how the buildings are actually constructed. In addition, WBS recommended uploading plans and permits from microfiche storage into a more comprehensive, searchable database consistent with the City’s current online permit information. To identify the actual lighting types, WBS and City staff conducted site visits of all 26 office buildings. As part of managing the flow of ESPM and Asset Score data for the project, Earth Advantage, a sub-recipient of the Cities-LEAP award, created a DOE Standard Energy Efficiency Data (SEED) (USDOE 2018) instance for the City and used Asset Score’s Application Programming Interface (API) (Asset Score 2018) capabilities to develop two new features in the SEED Platform™: (1) automated Asset Score Preview ranges calculated based on benchmarking data and the City’s estimate of number of building floors; and (2) storage of full Asset Score information. Leveraging the construction permit history and site visit information for the 26 office buildings, The Cadmus Group (Cadmus) analyzed benchmarking data and Asset Score information to identify opportunities and drivers to improve performance. Correlation and regression analysis of the combined dataset was completed to determine whether building operations or specific systems – mechanical, lighting or envelope – present the best opportunities to improve energy performance. The central outcome of this project was Cadmus’ detailed analysis of the richer dataset that was created by combining the City of Portland’s commercial building permit activity and building-specific energy performance information based on metrics from ESPM and Asset Score Tool. Some of their findings collaborate with well-known facts, such as buildings with less efficient lighting systems are good targets for efficiency improvements through lighting upgrades. This analysis also helped identify that individual heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment efficiency does not necessarily correlate with building performance. However, overall HVAC system performance, as measured with the Total System Performance Ratio (TSPR) metric, is a better indicator of building performance (Goel et al. 2014). As a metric, TSPR considers whole system performance that includes equipment efficiency and system controls, such as resets for static pressure and chilled water setpoints, which can be more effective and financially feasible options for improving building performance. Given the high cost associated with envelope retrofits, opportunities to upgrade envelope insulation are likely to be limited. However, buildings with single-pane and non-thermal break windows are good candidates for window replacements, such as upgrading to double-pane windows with thermal breaks. This research project determined that developing Asset Scores based on site visits is preferable to mining City building permit data. In addition, the use of benchmarking data to develop Asset Score Preview Scores is recommended as a first step in engaging building managers to develop full Asset Scores. Asset Score Tool outputs can help building managers quickly identify opportunities for improvement and then work with the utility incentive administrator and energy service providers to develop their retrofit plan. Where full Asset Scores are available, analysis using a quadrant matrix with ENERGY STAR scores is recommended to identify buildings that present the best opportunities for operational-behavioral improvements versus ones with opportunities for upgrades to physical building systems. This workflow and the tools will help cities, utility incentive administrators, building portfolio managers and energy service providers develop energy programs and strategies for screening and analysis of buildings with the greatest energy savings potential. This report describes the project approach and research results to inform future coordination of ESPM and Asset Score data, including the use of benchmarking data to generate Preview scores. Given better awareness of energy performance, building managers can make more informed decisions to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. With cities, states and jurisdictions adopting benchmarking and auditing ordinances, there are substantial amounts of data submitted to cities that could be used to inform investments in energy efficiency.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Persistence of soil organic matter as an ecosystem property
Globally, soil organic matter (SOM) contains more than three times as much carbon as either the atmosphere or terrestrial vegetation. Yet it remains largely unknown why some SOM persists for millennia whereas other SOM decomposes readily—and this limits our ability to predict how soils will respond to climate change. Recent analytical and experimental advances have demonstrated that molecular structure alone does not control SOM stability: in fact, environmental and biological controls predominate. Here we propose ways to include this understanding in a new generation of experiments and soil carbon models, thereby improving predictions of the SOM response to global warming.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Using landscape typologies to model socioecological systems: Application to agriculture of the United States Gulf Coast
Agricultural enterprises are vulnerable to the effects of climate variability and change. Improved understanding of the determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in agricultural systems is important for projecting and managing future climate risk. At present, three analytical tools dominate methodological approaches to understanding agroecological vulnerability to climate: process-based crop models, empirical crop models, and integrated assessment models. A common weakness of these approaches is their limited treatment of socio-economic conditions and human agency in modeling agroecological processes and outcomes. This study proposes a framework that uses spatial cluster analysis to generate regional socioecological typologies that capture geographic variance in regional agricultural production and enable attribution of that variance to climatic, topographic, edaphic, and socioeconomic components. This framework was applied to historical corn production (1986-2010) in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico region as a testbed. The results demonstrate that regional socioeconomic heterogeneity is an important driving force in human dominated ecosystems, which we hypothesize, is a function of the link between socioeconomic conditions and the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems. Meaningful representation of future agricultural responses to climate variability and change is contingent upon understanding interactions among biophysical conditions, socioeconomic conditions, and human agency their incorporation in predictive models.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Predicting Future Disease Burden in a Rapidly Changing Climate
The interplay of a rapidly changing climate and infectious disease occurrence is emerging as a critical topic, requiring investigation of possible direct, as well as indirect, connections between disease processes and climate-related variation and phenomena. First, we introduce and overview three infectious disease exemplars (dengue, influenza, valley fever) representing different transmission classes (insect-vectored, human-to-human, environmentally-transmitted) to illuminate the complex and significant interplay between climate disease processes, as well as to motivate discussion of how Sandia can transform the field, and change our understanding of climate-driven infectious disease spread. We also review state-of-the-art epidemiological and climate modeling approaches, together with data analytics and machine learning methods, potentially relevant to climate and infectious disease studies. We synthesize the modeling and disease exemplars information, suggesting initial avenues for research and development (R&D) in this area, and propose potential sponsors for this work. Whether directly or indirectly, it is certain that a rapidly changing climate will alter global disease burden. The trajectory of climate change is an important control on this burden, from local, to regional and global scales. The efforts proposed herein respond to the National Research Councils call for the creation of a multidisciplinary institute that would address critical aspects of these interlocking, cascading crises.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗