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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

The hydrogen economy can reduce costs of climate change mitigation by up to 22%

In response to the urgent need to mitigate climate change via net-zero targets, many nations are renewing their interest in clean hydrogen as a net-zero energy carrier. Although clean hydrogen can be directly used in various sectors for deep decarbonization, the relatively low energy density and high production costs have raised doubts as to whether clean hydrogen development is worthwhile. Here, we improve on the GCAM model by including a more comprehensive and detailed representation of clean hydrogen production, distribution, and demand in all sectors of the global economy and simulate 25 scenarios to explore the cost-effectiveness of integrating clean hydrogen into the global energy system. We show that, due to costly technical obstacles, clean hydrogen can only provide 3%–9% of the 2050 global final energy use. Nevertheless, clean hydrogen deployment can reduce overall energy decarbonization costs by 15%–22%, mainly via powering “hard-to-electrify” sectors that would otherwise face high decarbonization expenditures. Our work provides practical references for cost-effective clean hydrogen planning.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ozone pollution reduction partially offsets the negative impact of climate change mitigation efforts on global hunger

Studies warning of the potential negative effects of climate mitigation on food security through the competing use of land for bioenergy and afforestation have overlooked the impact of reduced ozone and its potential enhancement of crop yields. Here we use six global agro-economic models to compare the impacts of climate change with climate mitigation policy and ozone reduction on agriculture. We find that ozone reduction could reduce the negative impact of a 1.5 °C-consistent climate change mitigation policy on global hunger by 15% in 2050. Sub-Saharan Africa and India, where hunger is most severe, account for 56% of this global reduction. Our findings indicate that the negative effects of climate mitigation on global hunger could be partially offset by the ozone reduction impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Chapter 11

The AR5 was published in 2014. The Paris Agreement and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted in 2015. An increasing number of countries have since announced ambitions to be carbon neutral by 2045–2060. The COVID-19 pandemic shocked the global economy in 2020 and motivated economic stimulus with demands for green recovery and concerns for economic security. All this has created a new context and a growing recognition that all industry, including the energy and emissions intensive industries, need to reach net zero GHG emissions. There is an ongoing mind shift around the opportunities to do so, with electrification and hydrogen emerging among key mitigation options as a result of renewable electricity costs falling rapidly. On the demand side there has been renewed attention to end-use demand, material efficiency, and more and better-quality recycling measures. This chapter takes its starting point in this new context and emphasizes the need for deploying innovative processes and practices in order to limit the global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C (IPCC 2018a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The climate change mitigation potential of annual grasslands under future climates

Abstract Composted manure and green waste amendments have been shown to increase net carbon (C) sequestration in rangeland soils and have been proposed as a means to help lower atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. However, the effect of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in rangelands is not well understood, and the viability of climate change mitigation strategies under future conditions is even less certain. We used a process‐based biogeochemical model (DayCent) at a daily time step to explore the long‐term effects of potential future climate changes on C and greenhouse gas dynamics in annual grassland ecosystems. We then used the model to explore how the same ecosystems might respond to climate change following compost amendments to soils and determined the long‐term viability of net SOC sequestration under changing climates. We simulated net primary productivity (NPP), SOC, and greenhouse gas fluxes across seven California annual grasslands with and without compost amendments. We drove the DayCent simulations with field data and with site‐specific daily climate data from two Earth system models (CanESM2 and HadGEM‐ES) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) through 2100. NPP and SOC stocks in unamended and amended ecosystems were surprisingly insensitive to projected climate changes. A one‐time amendment of compost to rangeland acted as a slow‐release organic fertilizer and increased NPP by up to 390–814 kg C ha −1 year −1 across sites. The amendment effect on NPP was not sensitive to Earth system model or emissions scenario and endured through the end of the century. Net SOC sequestration amounted to 1.96 ± 0.02 Mg C ha −1 relative to unamended soils at the maximum amendment effect. Averaged across sites and scenarios, SOC sequestration peaked 22 ± 1 years after amendment and declined but remained positive throughout the century. Though compost stimulated nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions, the cumulative net emissions (in CO 2 equivalents) due to compost were far less than the amount of SOC sequestered. Compost amendments resulted in a net climate benefit of 69.6 ± 0.5 Tg CO 2 e 20 ± 1 years after amendment if applied to similar ecosystems across the state, amounting to 39% of California's rangeland. These results suggest that the biogeochemical benefits of a single amendment of compost to rangelands in California are insensitive to climate change and could contribute to decadal‐scale climate change mitigation goals alongside emissions reductions.

Mayer, Allegra↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bioenergy for climate change mitigation: Scale and sustainability

Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of biomass for bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). We review the literature on bioenergy, including the modelling of bioenergy in integrated assessment models (IAMs) and bottom-up modelling and non-modelling studies on the implications of bioenergy use. We summarise the limitations of existing modelling studies and what is known about the potential co-benefits and adverse side-effects of bioenergy systems. We find that the implications of bioenergy supply on mitigation and other sustainability criteria are context dependent and influenced by feedstock, management regime, climatic region, scale of deployment and the counterfactual land use and energy system. However, due to limitations of the existing models, and uncertainty over the future context with respect to the many variables that influence availability of biomass and land resources, it is not possible to precisely quantify the sustainability implications for different scales of bioenergy implementation. Given these uncertainties, the dependence on large-scale deployment of bioenergy in mitigation scenarios carries risks. The deployment of bioenergy technologies and the evolution of biomass supply chains at a scale that achieves significant mitigation and carbon sequestration requires integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms. As a result, bioenergy, and the use of land to produce biomass, is an essential part of many climate mitigation strategies but there are limits to its use due to trade-offs with sustainability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap (Second Edition)

The first ICEF Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap was released in December 2023. Since that time, attention to artificial intelligence (AI) has continued to grow at a rapid pace. Tens of billions of dollars have poured into AI projects, policymakers around the world have considered new AI policies, and OpenAI reports that each month more than 200 million people now use ChatGPT. Signs of a changing climate continue to grow as well. Based on global average temperatures, July 22, 2024 was the warmest day ever recorded; 2023 was the warmest year ever recorded; and the 10 warmest years on record are the past 10 years. Yet global emissions of greenhouse gases continue to climb. Can AI help cut emissions of greenhouse gases? This Roadmap explores that question. In this second edition of the Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap, a team of 25 co-authors builds on last year’s roadmap—comprehensively updating all old chapters, adding six new chapters and offering 5–10 specific, actionable recommendations in each chapter. Our goal is to provide a useful resource for experts and non-experts alike. In Part I of this Roadmap, we provide brief introductions to both AI and climate change. In Part II, we explore eight sectors in which AI is helping respond to climate change and could do much more. In Part III, we explore crosscutting issues. We close with findings and recommendations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Politics of problem definition: Comparing public support of climate change mitigation policies using machine learning

Public support is a key contributor to successful policy adoption and implementation. Given the urgency of climate change mitigation, scholars have explored various determinants that affect public support for climate change mitigation policy. However, the relative decisiveness of these factors in shaping public support is insufficiently examined. Therefore, we deploy interpretable machine learning to understand which factors, among many previously investigated, are most decisive for structuring public support for various climate change mitigation policies. In this paper, we particularly look at the decisiveness of problem definition for shaping public support among various factors. Using U.S national survey data, we find that how individuals define the issue of climate change is more decisive for structuring public support for promoting renewable energy and regulating pollutants to mitigate the risks associated with climate change. However, the results also indicate that the most decisive factors associated with public support vary depending on the types of mitigation policy. Here, we conclude that different strategies should be utilized to increase public support for various climate change mitigation policy options. Our findings contribute to a scholarly understanding of the specific politics of problem definition in the context of environmental and climate change policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy

Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Environmental trade-offs of direct air capture technologies in climate change mitigation toward 2100

Abstract Direct air capture (DAC) is critical for achieving stringent climate targets, yet the environmental implications of its large-scale deployment have not been evaluated in this context. Performing a prospective life cycle assessment for two promising technologies in a series of climate change mitigation scenarios, we find that electricity sector decarbonization and DAC technology improvements are both indispensable to avoid environmental problem-shifting. Decarbonizing the electricity sector improves the sequestration efficiency, but also increases the terrestrial ecotoxicity and metal depletion levels per tonne of CO 2 sequestered via DAC. These increases can be reduced by improvements in DAC material and energy use efficiencies. DAC exhibits regional environmental impact variations, highlighting the importance of smart siting related to energy system planning and integration. DAC deployment aids the achievement of long-term climate targets, its environmental and climate performance however depend on sectoral mitigation actions, and thus should not suggest a relaxation of sectoral decarbonization targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs

Abstract We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation-adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today’s consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today’s power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 vs 0.09 kgCO $$_2$$ 2 ), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral-based adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being

Mitigation solutions are often evaluated in terms of costs and greenhouse gas reduction potentials, missing out on the consideration of direct effects on human well-being. Here, we systematically assess the mitigation potential of demand-side options categorized into avoid, shift and improve, and their human well-being links. Here we show that these options, bridging socio-behavioural, infrastructural and technological domains, can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 40–80% in end-use sectors. Based on expert judgement and an extensive literature database, we evaluate 306 combinations of well-being outcomes and demand-side options, finding largely beneficial effects in improvement in well-being (79% positive, 18% neutral and 3% negative), even though we find low confidence on the social dimensions of well-being. Implementing such nuanced solutions is based axiomatically on an understanding of malleable rather than fixed preferences, and procedurally on changing infrastructures and choice architectures. Results demonstrate the high mitigation potential of demand-side mitigation options that are synergistic with well-being.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tree drought physiology: critical research questions and strategies for mitigating climate change effects on forests

Droughts of increasing severity and frequency are a primary cause of forest mortality associated with climate change. Yet, fundamental knowledge gaps regarding the complex physiology of trees limit the development of more effective management strategies to mitigate drought effects on forests. Here, in this work, we highlight some of the basic research needed to better understand tree drought physiology and how new technologies and interdisciplinary approaches can be used to address them. Our discussion focuses on how trees change wood development to mitigate water stress, hormonal responses to drought, genetic variation underlying adaptive drought phenotypes, how trees ‘remember’ prior stress exposure, and how symbiotic soil microbes affect drought response. Next, we identify opportunities for using research findings to enhance or develop new strategies for managing drought effects on forests, ranging from matching genotypes to environments, to enhancing seedling resilience through nursery treatments, to landscape-scale monitoring and predictions. We conclude with a discussion of the need for co-producing research with land managers and extending research to forests in critical ecological regions beyond the temperate zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Economic and biophysical limits to seaweed farming for climate change mitigation

Net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets are driving interest in opportunities for biomass-based negative emissions and bioenergy, including from marine sources such as seaweed. Yet the biophysical and economic limits to farming seaweed at scales relevant to the global carbon budget have not been assessed in detail. We use coupled seaweed growth and technoeconomic models to estimate the costs of global seaweed production and related climate benefits, systematically testing the relative importance of model parameters. Under our most optimistic assumptions, sinking farmed seaweed to the deep sea to sequester a gigaton of CO 2 per year costs as little as US$\$$480 per tCO 2 on average, while using farmed seaweed for products that avoid a gigaton of CO 2 -equivalent GHG emissions annually could return a profit of $\$$50 per tCO 2 -eq. However, these costs depend on low farming costs, high seaweed yields, and assumptions that almost all carbon in seaweed is removed from the atmosphere (that is, competition between phytoplankton and seaweed is negligible) and that seaweed products can displace products with substantial embodied non-CO 2 GHG emissions. Moreover, the gigaton-scale climate benefits we model would require farming very large areas (>90,000 km 2 )—a >30-fold increase in the area currently farmed. Our results therefore suggest that seaweed-based climate benefits may be feasible, but targeted research and demonstrations are needed to further reduce economic and biophysical uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Boosting climate change mitigation potential of perennial lignocellulosic crops grown on marginal lands

Nitrogen fertilizer (N F ) is a major uncertainty surrounding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of lignocellulosic biofuels. NF enhances agronomic yields and soil C inputs via plant litters, but results in soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition, soil N 2 O fluxes, and a large fossil energy footprint. Thus, whether NF is beneficial or detrimental to the GHG mitigation of biofuels is unknown. Here, we show the potential GHG mitigation of fertilizing switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) at the NF rate that minimizes net GHG emissions across 7.1 million ha of marginal lands in the Midwest US, with long-term production advantages surpassing emitted GHG by 0.66 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 on the aggregate. Marginal lands limited by poor N fertility could see a much greater benefit, but not SOC-rich lands, limited by low precipitation, or short growing seasons. The objectives of maximizing yield and minimizing GHG overlap only in a few environments, suggesting that maximum yield will reduce the climate benefit of cellulosic biofuels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021