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Results for “climate feedbacks”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate feedback mechanisms

As a consequence of fossil fuel burning, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from 314 ppm in 1958, when detailed measurements of this quantity began, to a present value of 335 ppm; and it is estimated that during the next century, the CO2 concentration will double relative to its assumed preindustrial value of 290 ppm. Since CO2 is an infrared-active gas, increases in its atmospheric concentration would lead to a larger infrared opacity for the atmospheric which, by normal logic, would result in a warmer Earth. A number of modeling endeavors suggest a 2 to 4 C increase in global mean surface temperature with doubling of the CO2 concentration. But such estimates of CO2-induced warming are highly uncertain because of a lack of knowledge of climate feedback mechanisms. Interactive influences upon the solar and infrared opacities of the Earth-atmosphere system can either amplify or damp a climate-forcing mechanism such as increasing CO2. Climate feedback mechanisms discussed include climate sensitivity, cloudiness-radiation feedback, climate change predictions, and interactive atmospheric chemistry.

Cess, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.

Cess, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Cloud-radiation Interactions and Cloud-climate Feedbacks from an Active-sensor Satellite Perspective

Clouds are ubiquitous in the troposphere. Their interactions with radiation may result in either a warming or a cooling of the Earth system and generate diverse climate feedbacks. The vertical structure of the radiative effects of clouds as well as the response of clouds to global warming (i.e., the cloud feedbacks) are inadequately constrained within the diversity of current climate models, which limits our ability to project the magnitude of future warming. In this chapter we show how relatively recent active-sensor spaceborne observations have narrowed constraints on cloud feedbacks. The value added beyond what can be retrieved from passive sensors is only just beginning to be exploited.

Cloud radiation↗
NASA NTRS2002

New Insights on Hydro-Climate Feedback Processes over the Tropical Ocean from TRMM

In this paper, we study hydro-climate feedback processes over the tropical oceans, by examining the relationships among large scale circulation and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager-Sea Surface Temperature (TMI-SST), and a range of TRMM rain products including rain rate, cloud liquid water, precipitable water, cloud types and areal coverage, and precipitation efficiency. Results show that for a warm event (1998), the 28C threshold of convective precipitation is quite well defined over the tropical oceans. However, for a cold event (1999), the SST threshold is less well defined, especially over the central and eastern Pacific cold tongue, where stratiform rain occurs at much lower than 28 C. Precipitation rates and cloud liquid water are found to be more closely related to the large scale vertical motion than to the underlying SST. While total columnar water vapor is more strongly dependent on SST. For a large domain, over the eastern Pacific, we find that the areal extent of the cloudy region tends to shrink as the SST increases. Examination of the relationship between cloud liquid water and rain rate suggests that the residence time of cloud liquid water tends to be shorter, associated with higher precipitation efficiency in a warmer climate. It is hypothesized that the reduction in cloudy area may be influenced both by the shift in large scale cloud patterns in response to changes in large scale forcings, and possible increase in the cloud liquid water conversion to rain water in a warmer environment. Results of numerical experiments with the Goddard cloud resolving model to test the hypothesis will be discussed.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

ESD Reviews: Climate Feedbacks in the Earth System and Prospects for Their Evaluation

Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools for providing climate projections under different scenarios of human-induced forcing. ESMs include a large number of additional processes and feedbacks such as biogeochemical cycles that traditional physical climate models do not consider. Yet, some processes such as cloud dynamics and ecosystem functional response still have fairly high uncertainties. In this article, we present an overview of climate feedbacks for Earth system components currently included in state-of-the-art ESMs and discuss the challenges to evaluate and quantify them. Uncertainties in feedback quantification arise from the interdependencies of biogeochemical matter fluxes and physical properties, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of processes, and the lack of long-term continuous observational data to constrain them. We present an outlook for promising approaches that can help to quantify and to constrain the large number of feedbacks in ESMs in the future. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research (researchers, lecturers, and students). This study updates and significantly expands upon the last comprehensive overview of climate feedbacks in ESMs, which was produced 15 years ago (NRC, 2003).

Climate feedbacks↗
NASA NTRS1989

Interpretation of cloud-climate feedback as produced by 14 atmospheric general circulation models

Understanding the cause of differences among general circulation model projections of carbon dioxide-induced climatic change is a necessary step toward improving the models. An intercomparison of 14 atmospheric general circulation models, for which sea surface temperature perturbations were used as a surrogate climate change, showed that there was a roughly threefold variation in global climate sensitivity. Most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depictions of cloud-climate feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as climatic predictors.

Cess, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global Requirements for Ecosystem Functioning, Carbon and Climate Feedbacks, Agricultural Management, and Water Resources

The fate of the terrestrial biosphere is highly uncertain given recent and projected changes in climate. This is especially acute for impacts associated with changes in drought frequency and intensity on the distribution and timing of water availability. The development of effective adaptation strategies for these emerging threats to food and water security are compromised by limitations in our understanding of how natural and managed ecosystems are responding to changing hydrological and climatological regimes. This information gap is exacerbated by insufficient monitoring capabilities from local to global scales. Here, we describe how evapotranspiration (ET) represents the key variable in linking ecosystem functioning, carbon and climate feedbacks, agricultural management, and water resources, and highlight both the outstanding science and applications questions and the actions, especially from a space-based perspective, necessary to advance them.

Fisher, Joshua B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Diagnosis of Middle Atmosphere Climate Sensitivity by the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method

We present a new method to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity by extending the Climate Feedback-Response Analysis Method (CFRAM) for the coupled atmosphere-surface system to the middle atmosphere. The Middle atmosphere CFRAM (MCFRAM) is built on the atmospheric energy equation per unit mass with radiative heating and cooling rates as its major thermal energy sources. MCFRAM preserves the CFRAM unique feature of an additive property for which the sum of all partial temperature changes due to variations in external forcing and feedback processes equals the observed temperature change. In addition, MCFRAM establishes a physical relationship of radiative damping between the energy perturbations associated with various feedback processes and temperature perturbations associated with thermal responses. MCFRAM is applied to both measurements and model output fields to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity. It is found that the largest component of the middle atmosphere temperature response to the 11-year solar cycle (solar maximum vs. solar minimum) is directly from the partial temperature change due to the variation of the input solar flux. Increasing CO2 always cools the middle atmosphere with time whereas partial temperature change due to O3 variation could be either positive or negative. The partial temperature changes due to different feedbacks show distinctly different spatial patterns. The thermally driven globally averaged partial temperature change due to all radiative processes is approximately equal to the observed temperature change, ranging from 0.5 K near 70 km from the near solar maximum to the solar minimum.

MCFRAM↗
NASA NTRS2020

Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Feedbacks in the NASA GISS ModelE2.1

We present results from the NASA GISS ModelE2.1‐G‐CC Earth System Model with coupled climate‐carbon cycle simulations that were submitted to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Coupled Climate‐Carbon Cycle MIP (C4MIP). Atmospheric CO2 concentration and carbon budgets for the land and ocean in the historical simulations were generally consistent with observations. Low simulated atmospheric CO2 concentrations during 1850‐1950 were due to excess uptake from prescribed land cover change, which erroneously replaced arid shrublands with higher biomass crops, and assumed high 2004 LAI values in vegetated lands throughout the historical simulation. At the end of the historical period, slightly higher simulated CO2 than observed resulted from the land being an insufficient net carbon sink, despite the net effect of CO2 fertilization and warming‐induced increases to leaf photosynthetic capacity. The global ocean carbon uptake agreed well with the observations with the largest discrepancies in the low latitudes. Future climate projection at 2091‐2100 agreed with CMIP5 models in the northward shift, of temperate deciduous forest climate and expansion across Eurasia along 60 °N latitude, and dramatic regional biome shifts from drying and warming in continental Europe. Carbon feedback parameters were largely similar to the CMIP5 model ensemble. For our model, the variation of land feedback parameters within the uncertainty arises from the fertilization feedback being less sensitive due to lack of increased vegetation growth, and the comparably more negative ocean carbon‐climate feedback is due to the large slowdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation.

Carbon cycle↗
NASA NTRS2008

The GEOS Chemistry Climate Model: Implications of Climate Feedbacks on Ozone Depletion and Recovery

The Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) has been developed by combining the atmospheric chemistry and transport modules developed over the years at Goddard and the GEOS general circulation model, also developed at Goddard. The first version of the model was used in the CCMVal intercomparison exercises that contributed to the 2006 WMO/UNEP Ozone Assessment. The second version incorporates the updated version of the GCM (GEOS 5) and will be used for the next round of CCMVal evaluations and the 2010 Ozone Assessment. The third version, now under development, incorporates the combined stratosphere and troposphere chemistry package developed under the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). We will show comparison to past observations that indicate that we represent the ozone trends over the past 30 years. We will also show the basic temperature, composition, and dynamical structure of the simulations. We will further show projections into the future. We will show results from an ensemble of transient and time-slice simulations, including simulations with fixed 1960 chlorine, simulations with a best guess scenario (Al), and simulations with extremely high chlorine loadings. We will discuss planned extensions of the model to include emission-based boundary conditions for both anthropogenic and biogenic compounds.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Cirrus clouds and climate feedback: Is the sky falling and should we go tell the king

It is widely believed that thin cirrus clouds act to enhance the greenhouse effect owing to a particular combination of their optical properties. It is demonstrated how this effect is perhaps based on inadequate resolution of the physics of cirrus clouds and that the more likely impact of cirrus clouds to climate change remains somewhat elusive. These conclusions are developed within the context of a specific feedback mechanism incorporated into a simple mechanistic climate model. A specific scientific question addressed is whether or not the observed relationship between the ice water content and temperature of cirrus provides any significant feedback to the CO2 greenhouse warming. A related question also examined concerns the specific role of cloud microphysics and radiation in this feedback. This raises several pertinent issues about the understanding of cirrus clouds and their likely role in climate change as there presently exists a considerable uncertainty about the microphysics of these clouds (size and shape of ice crystals) and their radiative influences.

Stephens, Graeme L.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Temperature dependence of cirrus extinction - Implications for climate feedback

The sensitivities of changes in cirrus optical properties to the changes in global temperature were investigated using data obtained in previous extensive lidar and radiometer observations of cirrus clouds. It is demonstrated how the temperature dependence of cirrus optical properties can be used in climate sensitivity calculations to yield predictions of feedback effects at various cirrus temperatures and how these properties can be parameterized simply for use in the GCM or climate models.

Platt, C. Martin R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impacts of the Convective Transport Algorithm on Atmospheric Composition and Ozone-Climate Feedbacks in GEOS-CCM

Convective transport is one of the dominant factors in determining the composition of the troposphere. It is the main mechanism for lofting constituents from near-surface source regions to the middle and upper troposphere, where they can subsequently be advected over large distances. Gases reaching the upper troposphere can also be injected through the tropopause and play a subsequent role in the lower stratospheric ozone balance. Convection codes in climate models remain a great source of uncertainty for both the energy balance of the general circulation and the transport of constituents. This study uses the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to perform a controlled experiment that isolates the impact of convective transport of constituents from the direct changes on the atmospheric energy balance. Two multi-year simulations are conducted. In the first, the thermodynamic variable, moisture, and all trace gases are transported using the multi-plume Relaxed-Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convective parameterization. In the second simulation, RAS impacts the thermodynamic energy and moisture in this standard manner, but all other constituents are transported differently. The accumulated convective mass fluxes (including entrainment and detrainment) computed at each time step of the GCM are used with a diffusive (bulk) algorithm for the vertical transport, which above all is less efficient at transporting constituents from the lower to the upper troposphere. Initial results show the expected differences in vertical structure of trace gases such as carbon monoxide, but also show differences in lower stratospheric ozone, in a region where it can potentially impact the climate state of the model. This work will investigate in more detail the impact of convective transport changes by comparing the two simulations over many years (1996-2010), focusing on comparisons with observed constituent distributions and similarities and differences of patterns of inter-annual variability caused by the convective transport algorithm. In particular, the impact on lower stratospheric composition will be isolated and the subsequent feedbacks of ozone on the climate forcing and tropopause structure will be assessed.

Pawson, S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Interpretation of snow-climate feedback as produced by 17 general circulation models

Snow feedback is expected to amplify global warming caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The conventional explanation is that a warmer earth will have less snow cover, resulting in a darker planet that absorbs more solar radiation. An intercomparison of 17 general circulation models, for which perturbations of sea surface temperature were used as a surrogate climate change, suggests that this explanation is overly simplistic. The results instead indicate that additional amplification or moderation may be caused both by cloud interactions and longwave radiation. One measure of this net effect of snow feedback was found to differ markedly among the 17 climate models, ranging from weak negative feedback in some models to strong positive feedback in others.

Cess, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2003

SPARC-IGAC Symposium on Climate-Chemistry Interactions. Climate Feedback by Water Vapor in the Tropical Upper Troposphere

The strong greenhouse forcing by atmospheric water vapor is expected to play an important role in shaping the direction of any future changes in climate. We present calculations that provide a new perspective on the sensitivity of upper tropospheric water vapor to changes in surface temperature. Equilibrium states of our atmospheric model show unambiguously that as the surface warms, changes in the vertical distribution and temperature of detraining air parcels from tropical convection lead to higher water vapor mixing ratios in the upper troposphere. However, the increase in mixing ratio is not as large as the increase in saturation mixing ratio due to warmer environmental temperatures, so that the relative humidity decreases. Our analysis suggests that models that maintain a fixed relative humidity are likely overestimating the magnitude of the water vapor feedback.

Dessler, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Low-latitude cloudiness and climate feedback - Comparative estimates from satellite data

Three studies of the relative albedo to the IR components of cloud amount feedback are reviewed, and an approach to the seasonal variability in low-level cloud numbers is presented. Comparisons are made and uncertainties calculated for the predictions of cloud amounts from satellite data sets for outgoing IR flux. IR data is used directly for a linear regression analysis and seasonal and latitudinal variations are considered in terms of monthly-annual means for particular latitude zones. Investigations of NOAA-NESS satellite data revealed that cirrus clouds are transparent in the 10.5-12.5 microns range and cloud albedos decrease at wavelengths greater than 0.7 micron, which suggests a possibility of cloud-sky and clear-sky albedo comparisons at 0.5-0.7 micron. The inclusion of Rayleigh scattering and atmospheric water vapor absorption of sunlight is recommended to test the effects on observed contracts.

Cess, R. D.↗