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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2015

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

Mueller, Christoph↗
NASA NTRS2021

Context and future directions for integrating forest carbon into sub-national climate mitigation planning in the RGGI region of the U.S.

International frameworks for climate mitigation that build from national actions have been developed under the United National Framework Convention on Climate Change and advanced most recently through the Paris Climate Agreement. In parallel, sub-national actors have set greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals and developed corresponding climate mitigation plans. Within the U.S., multi-state coalitions have formed to facilitate coordination of related science and policy. Here, utilizing the forum of the NASA Carbon Monitoring System’s Multi-State Working Group, we collected and reviewed climate mitigation plans for 11 states in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative region of the Eastern U.S. For each state we reviewed the (a) policy framework for climate mitigation, (b) GHG reduction goals, (c) inclusion of forest activities in the state’s climate action plan, (d) existing science used to quantify forest carbon estimates, and (e) stated needs for forest carbon monitoring science. Across the region, we found important differences across all categories. While all states have GHG reduction goals and framework documents, nearly three-quarters of all states do not account for forest carbon when planning GHG reductions; those that do account for forest carbon use a variety of scientific methods with various levels of planning detail and guidance. We suggest that a common, efficient, standardized forest carbon monitoring system would provide important benefits to states and the geographic region as a whole. In addition, such a system would allow for more effective transparency and progress tracking to support state, national, and international efforts to increase ambition and implementation of climate goals.

Rachel L Lamb↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wichita Climate: Using Satellite Data to Identify Neighborhoods Vulnerable to Extreme Heat for Equitable Climate Mitigation and Planning

Wichita, Kansas is facing a host of climate threats, one being extreme heat that is manifested through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The uneven distribution of heat risk in Wichita across socioeconomic status is an environmental justice issue. We worked with the City of Wichita to map heat exposure, tree canopy, and heat risk in order to support the City's climate resilience initiatives. To visualize heat exposure, we quantified and mapped average summer heat from 2013–2021 using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) night-time LST. To understand tree canopy cover gaps, we created a tree canopy map using 2021 PlanetScope imagery, which identified 20% more trees than the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD) tree canopy coverage estimates for Wichita. To characterize high risk areas, we used socioeconomic census data and existing social vulnerability indices, highlighting populations that were exposed and vulnerable to extreme heat. The spatial analyses demonstrated that heat exposure is concentrated in the city center and southwest Wichita, areas that are also low in tree canopy coverage. The three census block groups and 17 census tracts with the highest heat risk primarily circle the city center, in areas home to more socially vulnerable populations and near enough to the dense urban center to feel significant urban heat island effects.

Brooke Laird↗
NASA NTRS2022

Wichita Climate: Using Satellite Data to Identify Neighborhoods Vulnerable to Extreme Heat for Equitable Climate Mitigation and Planning

Wichita, Kansas is facing a host of climate threats, one being extreme heat that is manifested through the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The uneven distribution of heat risk in Wichita across socioeconomic status is an environmental justice issue. We worked with the City of Wichita to map heat exposure, tree canopy, and heat risk in order to support the City's climate resilience initiatives. To visualize heat exposure, we quantified and mapped average summer heat from 2013–2021 using Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) night-time LST. To understand tree canopy cover gaps, we created a tree canopy map using 2021 PlanetScope imagery, which identified 20% more trees than the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD) tree canopy coverage estimates for Wichita. To characterize high risk areas, we used socioeconomic census data and existing social vulnerability indices, highlighting populations that were exposed and vulnerable to extreme heat. The spatial analyses demonstrated that heat exposure is concentrated in the city center and southwest Wichita, areas that are also low in tree canopy coverage. The three census block groups and 17 census tracts with the highest heat risk primarily circle the city center, in areas home to more socially vulnerable populations and near enough to the dense urban center to feel significant urban heat island effects.

Brooke Laird↗
NASA NTRS2015

Mitigating Climate Change with Earth Orbital Sunshades

An array of rotating sunshades based on emerging solar sail technology will be deployed in a novel Earth orbit to provide near-continuous partial shading of the Earth, reducing the heat input to the atmosphere by blocking a small percentage of the incoming sunlight, and mitigating local weather effects of anticipated climate change over the next century. The technology will provide local cooling relief during extreme heat events (and heating relief during extreme cold events) thereby saving human lives, agriculture, livestock, water and energy needs. A synthesis of the solar sail design, the sails' operational modes, and the selected orbit combine to provide local weather modification.

Coverstone, Victoria↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Use of Gridded Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (FFCO2) Inventory for Climate Mitigation Applications: Errors, Uncertainties, and Current and Future Challenges

Emission Inventory (EI) is a fundamental tool to monitor global compliance of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions reduction actions. Inventory guidelines provide a best practice to help EI compilers to make comparable national emission estimates, in spite of the differences in data availability across countries and regions. There are a variety of sources of errors and uncertainties, however, that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines define. For example, spatially-explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes, and there are no specific guidelines to disaggregate emission estimates from country scale. On top of that, EIs are fundamentally prone to systematic biases due to the simple calculation methodology and thus an objective evaluation (e.g. atmospheric top-down estimates) is needed to assure the accuracy of the estimates. ODIAC is a global high-resolution (1x1 km) fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) gridded EI that is now often used in atmospheric CO2 modeling. ODIAC is based on disaggregation of national emission estimates made by CDIAC, which is the well accepted standard in the community. The ODIAC emission data product is updated on an annual basis using best available statistical data. Subnational spatial emission patterns are estimated using power plant profiles and satellite-observations of nighttime lights. In addition to the conventional CDIAC gridded data product, ODIAC carries international bunker emissions (shipping and aviation), which allows flux inversion modelers to accurately impose the global total fossil fuel emissions and their horizontal and vertical distribution. We have extensively evaluated ODIAC emissions using fine-grained EIs as well as a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy relevant) with a focus on the uncertainties associated with the emission disaggregation. We have examined the use of NASA's Black Marble Suomi-NPP/VIIRS nightlight data.

Oda, Tomohiro↗
NASA NTRS2016

Using Remotely Sensed Data for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: A Collaborative Effort Between the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI), NASA Johnson Space Center, and Jacobs Technology

With ever changing landscapes and environmental conditions due to human induced climate change, adaptability is imperative for the long-term success of facilities and Federal agency missions. To mitigate the effects of climate change, indicators such as above-ground biomass change must be identified to establish a comprehensive monitoring effort. Researching the varying effects of climate change on ecosystems can provide a scientific framework that will help produce informative, strategic and tactical policies for environmental adaptation. As a proactive approach to climate change mitigation, NASA tasked the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI) to provide climate change expertise and data to Center facility managers and planners in order to ensure sustainability based on predictive models and current research. Generation of historical datasets that will be used in an agency-wide effort to establish strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation at NASA facilities is part of the CASI strategy. Using time series of historical remotely sensed data is well-established means of measuring change over time. CASI investigators have acquired multispectral and hyperspectral optical and LiDAR remotely sensed datasets from NASA Earth Observation Satellites (including the International Space Station), airborne sensors, and astronaut photography using hand held digital cameras to create a historical dataset for the Johnson Space Center, as well as the Houston and Galveston area. The raster imagery within each dataset has been georectified, and the multispectral and hyperspectral imagery has been atmospherically corrected. Using ArcGIS for Server, the CASI-Regional Remote Sensing data has been published as an image service, and can be visualized through a basic web mapping application. Future work will include a customized web mapping application created using a JavaScript Application Programming Interface (API), and inclusion of the CASI data for the NASA Johnson Space Center into a NASA-Wide GIS Institutional Portal.

Jagge, Amy↗
NASA NTRS2021

Significant Climate Benefits from Near-Term Climate Forcer Mitigation in Spite of Aerosol Reductions

Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality--so called "win-win" mitigation policies. Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of -0.15 K by mid-century and -0.50 K by end-of-the-century. This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality.

Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs)↗
NASA NTRS2021

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Health, Labor, and Crop Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in the United States

Societal benefits from climate change mitigation accrue via multiple pathways. We examine the US impacts of emission changes on several factors that are affected by both climate and air quality responses. Nationwide benefits through midcentury stem primarily from air quality improvements, which are realized rapidly, and include human health, labor productivity, and crop yield benefits. Benefits from reduced heat exposure become large around 2060, thereafter often dominating over those from improved air quality. Monetized benefits are in the tens of trillions of dollars for avoided deaths and tens of billions for labor productivity and crop yield increases and reduced hospital expenditures. Total monetized benefits this century are dominated by health and are much larger than in previous analyses due to improved understanding of the human health impacts of exposure to both heat and air pollution. Benefit–cost ratios are therefore much larger than in prior studies, especially those that neglected clean air benefits. Specifically, benefits from clean air exceed costs in the first decade, whereas benefits from climate alone exceed costs in the latter half of the century. Furthermore, monetized US benefits largely stem from US emissions reductions. Increased emphasis on the localized, near-term air quality–related impacts would better align policies with societal benefits and, by reducing the mismatch between perception of climate as a risk distant in space and time and the need for rapid action to mitigate long-term climate change, might help increase acceptance of mitigation policies.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2020

Historical and Future Changes in Air Pollutants from CMIP6 Models

Poor air quality is currently responsible for large impacts on human health across the world. In addition, the air pollutants ozone (O3) and particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) are also radiatively active in the atmosphere and can influence Earth's climate. It is important to understand the effect of air quality and climate mitigation measures over the historical period and in different future scenarios to ascertain any impacts from air pollutants on both climate and human health. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) presents an opportunity to analyse the change in air pollutants simulated by the current generation of climate and Earth system models that include a representation of chemistry and aerosols (particulate matter). The shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) used within CMIP6 encompass a wide range of trajectories in precursor emissions and climate change, allowing for an improved analysis of future changes to air pollutants. Firstly, we conduct an evaluation of the available CMIP6 models against surface observations of O3 and PM2.5. CMIP6 models consistently overestimate observed surface O3 concentrations across most regions and in most seasons by up to 16 ppb, with a large diversity in simulated values over Northern Hemisphere continental regions. Conversely, observed surface PM2.5 concentrations are consistently underestimated in CMIP6 models by up to 10 µg m−3, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere winter months, with the largest model diversity near natural emission source regions. The biases in CMIP6 models when compared to observations of O3 and PM2.5 are similar to those found in previous studies. Over the historical period (1850–2014) large increases in both surface O3 and PM2.5 are simulated by the CMIP6 models across all regions, particularly over the mid to late 20th century, when anthropogenic emissions increase markedly. Large regional historical changes are simulated for both pollutants across East and South Asia with an annual mean increase of up to 40 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. In future scenarios containing strong air quality and climate mitigation measures (ssp126), annual mean concentrations of air pollutants are substantially reduced across all regions by up to 15 ppb for O3 and 12 µg m−3 for PM2.5. However, for scenarios that encompass weak action on mitigating climate and reducing air pollutant emissions (ssp370), annual mean increases in both surface O3 (up 10 ppb) and PM2.5 (up to 8 µg m−3) are simulated across most regions, although, for regions like North America and Europe small reductions in PM2.5 are simulated due to the regional reduction in precursor emissions in this scenario. A comparison of simulated regional changes in both surface O3 and PM2.5 from individual CMIP6 models highlights important regional differences due to the simulated interaction of aerosols, chemistry, climate and natural emission sources within models. The projection of regional air pollutant concentrations from the latest climate and Earth system models used within CMIP6 shows that the particular future trajectory of climate and air quality mitigation measures could have important consequences for regional air quality, human health and near-term climate. Differences between individual models emphasise the importance of understanding how future Earth system feedbacks influence natural emission sources, e.g. response of biogenic emissions under climate change.

Air pollutants↗
NASA NTRS2021

Uncertainties, Limits, and Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation for Soil Moisture Drought in Southwestern North America

Over the last two decades, southwestern North America (SWNA) has been in the grip of one of the most severe droughts of the last 1,200 years, with one third to nearly one half of its severity attributable to climate change. We analyze how the risk of extreme soil moisture droughts in SWNA, analogous to the most severe 21-year (≥ in magnitude to 2000–2020) and single-year (≥ in magnitude to 2002) events of the last several decades, changes in projections from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By the end of the 21st century, SWNA experiences robust (R ≥ 0.80) soil moisture drying and substantial increases in extreme single-year drought risk that scale strongly with warming, spanning an 8%–26% probability of occurrence across +2–4 K. Notably, our results show that 21-year droughts analogous to 2000–2020 are up to 5 times more likely than extreme single-year droughts under all levels of warming (≈50%). These high levels of 21-year drought risk are largely invariant across scenarios because of large spring precipitation declines in half the models, shifting SWNA into a drier mean state. Despite projections of this sweeping and ostensibly inevitable increase in 21-year drought risk, climate mitigation reduces their severity by reducing the magnitude of extreme single-year droughts during these events. Our results emphasize both the importance of preparing SWNA for imminent increases in persistent drought events and constraining projected precipitation uncertainty to better resolve future long-term drought risk.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗
NASA NTRS2011

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The ~lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

Hildebrand, Peter H.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Forest Carbon Emissions from Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado Biome

Land use, land use change, and forestry accounted for two-thirds of Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions profile in 2005. Amazon deforestation has declined by more than 80% over the past decade, yet Brazil's forests extend beyond the Amazon biome. Rapid expansion of cropland in the neighboring Cerrado biome has the potential to undermine climate mitigation efforts if emissions from dry forest and woodland conversion negate some of the benefits of avoided Amazon deforestation. Here, we used satellite data on cropland expansion, forest cover, and vegetation carbon stocks to estimate annual gross forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado biome. Nearly half of the Cerrado met Brazil's definition of forest cover in 2000 (greater than or equal to 0.5 ha with greater than or equal to 10% canopy cover). In areas of established crop production, conversion of both forest and non-forest Cerrado formations for cropland declined during 2003-2013. However, forest carbon emissions from cropland expansion increased over the past decade in Matopiba, a new frontier of agricultural production that includes portions of Maranhao, Tocantins, Piau­, and Bahia states. Gross carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the Cerrado averaged 16.28 Tg C yr (exp -1) between 2003 and 2013, with forest-to-cropland conversion accounting for 29% of emissions. The fraction of forest carbon emissions from Matopiba was much higher; between 2010-2013, large-scale cropland conversion in Matopiba contributed 45% of total Cerrado forest carbon emissions. Carbon emissions from Cerrado-tocropland transitions offset 5-7% of the avoided emissions from reduced Amazon deforestation rates during 2011-2013. Comprehensive national estimates of forest carbon fluxes, including all biomes, are critical to detect cross-biome leakage within countries and achieve climate mitigation targets to reduce emissions from land use, land use change, and forestry.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2014

Electric Vehicle Charging Stations as a Climate Change Mitigation Strategy

In order to facilitate the use of electric vehicles at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), charging stations should be made available to LaRC employees. The implementation of charging stations would decrease the need for gasoline thus decreasing CO2 emissions improving local air quality and providing a cost savings for LaRC employees. A charging station pilot program is described that would install stations as the need increased and also presents a business model that pays for the electricity used and installation at no cost to the government.

Cave, Bridget↗
NASA NTRS2020

Adaptation in U.S. Corn Belt Increases Resistance to Soil Carbon Loss With Climate Change

Increasing the amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) has agronomic benefits and the potential to mitigate climate change. Previous regional predictions of SOC trends under climate change often ignore or do not explicitly consider the effect of crop adaptation (i.e., changing planting dates and varieties). We used the DayCent biogeochemical model to examine the effect of adaptation on SOC for corn and soybean production in the U.S. Corn Belt using climate data from three models. Without adaptation, yields of both corn and soybean tended to decrease and the decomposition of SOC tended to increase leading to a loss of SOC with climate change compared to a baseline scenario with no climate change. With adaptation, the model predicted a substantially higher crop yield. The increase in yields and associated carbon input to the SOC pool counteracted the increased decomposition in the adaptation scenarios, leading to similar SOC stocks under different climate change scenarios. Consequently, we found that crop management adaptation to changing climatic conditions strengthen agroecosystem resistance to SOC loss. However, there are differences spatially in SOC trends. The northern part of the region is likely to gain SOC while the southern part of the region is predicted to lose SOC.

Soil Organic Carbon (SOC)↗