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Results for “climate stabilization”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1973

Numerical experiments in climate stability.

Two semiempirical climate models are formulated as time-dependent problems in order to study the stability of their asymptotic steady state equilibrium solutions to perturbations in internal (in this case, initial) conditions. For fixed external conditions the time-dependent versions of these models exhibit fully transitive behavior to positive perturbations in initial conditions, slight intransivity to negative perturbations up to -18 K, and an ice-covered earth regime is obtained for extremely large negative perturbations in initial temperatures (below -18 K). The parametrization found to be most critical in these models is the albedo-temperature coupling, especially in tropical regions. The temperature albedo parametrization from an intransitive climate model used in a time-dependent form of one of the preceding models is found to be highly sensitive to negative perturbations in both internal and external conditions. Numerical experimentation with these semiempirical models shows the important role of the tropics in maintaining the equilibrium climate and suggests that the radiation balance in equatorial latitudes might have a controlling influence on the equatorward extent of the polar ice cap.

Schneider, S. H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Venus climate stability and volcanic resurfacing rates

The climate of Venus is to a large degree controlled by the radiative properties of its massive atmosphere. In addition, outgassing due to volcanic activity, exospheric escape processes, and surface/atmosphere interactions may all be important in moderating the abundances of atmospheric CO2 and other volatiles. We have developed an evolutionary climate model for Venus using a systems approach that emphasizes feedbacks between elements in the climate system. Modules for atmospheric radiative transfer, surface/atmosphere interactions, tropospheric chemistry, and exospheric escape processes have so far been developed. Climate feedback loops result from interconnections between modules, in the form of the environmental parameters pressure, temperature, and atmospheric mixing ratios. The radiative transfer module has been implemented by using Rosseland mean opacities in a one dimensional grey radiative-convective model. The model has been solved for the static (time independent) case to determine climate equilibrium points. The dynamics of the model have also been explored by employing reaction/diffusion kinetics for possible surface atmosphere heterogeneous reactions over geologic timescales. It was found that under current conditions, the model predicts that the climate of Venus is at or near an unstable equilibrium point. The effects of constant rate volcanism and corresponding exsolution of volatiles on the stability of the climate model were also explored.

Bullock, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Climate stability for a Sellers-type model

We study a diffusive energy-balance climate model governed by a nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation. Three positive steady-state solutions of this equation are found; they correspond to three possible climates of our planet: an interglacial (nearly identical to the present climate), a glacial, and a completely ice-covered earth. We consider also models similar to the main one studied, and determine the number of their steady states. All the models have albedo continuously varying with latitude and temperature, and entirely diffusive horizontal heat transfer. The diffusion is taken to be nonlinear as well as linear. We investigate the stability under small perturbations of the main model's climates. A stability criterion is derived, and its application shows that the 'present climate' and the 'deep freeze' are stable, whereas the model's glacial is unstable. A variational principle is introduced to confirm the results of this stability analysis. For a sufficient decrease in solar radiation (about 2%) the glacial and interglacial solutions disappear, leaving the ice-covered earth as the only possible climate.

Ghil, M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Retrieval Algorithm Climate Stability: Estimating 3D Optical Thickness Bias Distributions by Cloud Type

Detecting climate trends on large spatiotemporal scales requires accurate, stable measurements and stable retrieval algorithms. We strive to estimate how time-variant retrieval algorithm biases may impact trend detection. Here we focus on the 3D cloud optical thickness (τc) bias, which is among the largest in passive cloud retrieval algorithms. If this bias is time dependent, a possibility with potential decadal changes in cloud morphology, it may obscure genuine trends in τc. Although previous studies have evaluated the cloud- and sun-view geometry-dependent 3D τc bias on small spatial scales, before our current study none have evaluated the stability of this well-known bias on climate-relevant large spatiotemporal scales. These studies must estimate large scale distributions of the 3D τc bias by cloud type and estimate how cloud type amount may change between two climate states. We employ a novel approach to estimate large scale distributions of 3D τc using a proxy of the bias that quantifies the departure of clouds from satisfying the 1D radiative transfer assumption used in passive τc retrievals. This existing globally-distributed proxy is an angular consistency metric that was developed using fused Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) measurements. Calculating the 3D τc bias and the proxy, for known cloud fields enables us to establish statistical relationships between these two quantities, which can be used to calculate large-scale distributions of the 3D τc bias. This approach limits the number of 3D radiative transfer simulations required to only those needed to estimate a statistical relationship between the 3D τc bias for known cloud fields and a proxy of the bias. It is likely that future studies will be needed to evaluate retrieval algorithm bias stability for other geophysical variables as the community develops climate data records from satellite observations and their retrievals. This must be done in addition to monitoring and correcting measurement errors and uncertainties and understanding their impact on retrieved essential climate variables.

Yolanda Shea↗
NASA NTRS1989

Climate stability and cloud optical thickness feedbacks

An improved radiative-convective model (RCM) has been developed and used to examine the role of cirrus clouds in the optical thickness feedback mechanism. Low and middle clouds are approximately black bodies for infrared radiative transfer, and so any increase in their optical thickness primarily increases the cloud albedo. Thus, if a climate warming is accompanied by an increase in average atmospheric absolute humidity and hence in average cloud liquid water content, low and middle cloud optical thickness and albedo may increase. The result is a negative feedback on the climate change, tending to reduce the surface temperature increase. Recent research suggests that the optical thickness feedback can depend sensitively on aspects of cirrus which are not well observed or adequately incorporated in typical present-day climate models.

Somerville, Richard C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification - Supplementary Information

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp. -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

How Long Do Satellites Need to Overlap? Evaluation of Climate Data Stability from Overlapping Satellite Records

Sensors on satellites provide unprecedented understanding of the Earth's climate system by measuring incoming solar radiation, as well as both passive and active observations of the entire Earth with outstanding spatial and temporal coverage. A common challenge with satellite observations is to quantify their ability to provide well-calibrated, long-term, stable records of the parameters they measure. Ground-based intercomparisons offer some insight, while reference observations and internal calibrations give further assistance for understanding long-term stability. A valuable tool for evaluating and developing long-term records from satellites is the examination of data from overlapping satellite missions. This paper addresses how the length of overlap affects the ability to identify an offset or a drift in the overlap of data between two sensors. Ozone and temperature data sets are used as examples showing that overlap data can differ by latitude and can change over time. New results are presented for the general case of sensor overlap by using Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) solar irradiance data as an example. To achieve a 1 % uncertainty in estimating the offset for these two instruments' measurement of the Mg II core (280 nm) requires approximately 5 months of overlap. For relative drift to be identified within 0.1 %/yr uncertainty (0.00008 W/sq m/nm/yr), the overlap for these two satellites would need to be 2.5 years. Additional overlap of satellite measurements is needed if, as is the case for solar monitoring, unexpected jumps occur adding uncertainty to both offsets and drifts; the additional length of time needed to account for a single jump in the overlap data may be as large as 50 % of the original overlap period in order to achieve the same desired confidence in the stability of the merged data set. Results presented here are directly applicable to satellite Earth observations. Approaches for Earth observations offer additional challenges due to the complexity of the observations, but Earth observations may also benefit from ancillary observations taken from ground-based and in situ sources. Difficult choices need to be made when monitoring approaches are considered; we outline some attempts at optimizing networks based on economic principles. The careful evaluation of monitoring overlap is important to the appropriate application of observational resources and to the usefulness of current and future observations.

climate data records↗
NASA NTRS2008

Using AIRS and IASI Data to Evaluate Absolute Radiometric Accuracy and Stability for Climate Applications

The creation of multi-decadal data sets for climate research requires better than 100 mK absolute calibration accuracy for the full range of spectral temperatures encountered under global conditions. Validation that this accuracy is achieved by the operational hyperspectral sounders from polar orbit is facilitated by comparing data from two instruments. Extreme radiometric calibration stability is critical to allow a long time series of noisy, but presumably long-term accurate truth measurements to be used for the validation of absolute accuracy at the 100 mK level. We use the RTGSST in the tropical oceans as ground truth. The difference between the AIRS derived sst2616 and the RTGSST based on six years of data shows a systematic cold bias of about 250 mK, but better than 4 mK/year stability. The double difference between AIRS and the RTGSST and IASI and the RTGSST with less than one year of data already allows statements at the 100 mK absolute level. It shows a 60 mK difference between the AIRS and the IASI calibration at 2616 cm-(sup 1) and 300 K, with a statistically insignificant 20 mK shift in six months.

EOS Aqua↗
NASA NTRS2023

Wheat Crop Traits Conferring High Yield Potential May Also Improve Yield Stability Under Climate Change

Increasing genetic wheat yield potential is considered by many as critical to increasing global wheat yields and production, baring major changes in consumption patterns. Climate change challenges breeding by making target environments less predictable, altering regional productivity and potentially increasing yield variability. Here we used a crop simulation model solution in the SIMPLACE framework to explore yield sensitivity to select trait characteristics (radiation use efficiency [RUE], fruiting efficiency and light extinction coefficient) across 34 locations representing the world’s wheat-producing environments, determining their relationship to increasing yields, yield variability and cultivar performance. The magnitude of the yield increase was trait-dependent and differed between irrigated and rainfed environments. RUE had the most prominent marginal effect on yield, which increased by about 45 % and 33 % in irrigated and rainfed sites, respectively, between the minimum and maximum value of the trait. Altered values of light extinction coefficient had the least effect on yield levels. Higher yields from improved traits were generally associated with increased inter-annual yield variability (measured by standard deviation), but the relative yield variability (as coefficient of variation) remained largely unchanged between base and improved genotypes. This was true under both current and future climate scenarios. In this context, our study suggests higher wheat yields from these traits would not increase climate risk for farmers and the adoption of cultivars with these traits would not be associated with increased yield variability.

Climate change↗
NASA NTRS1982

Climate in Earth history

Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

Berger, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Pliocene and Eocene Provide Best Analogs for Near-Future Climates

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3–3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS1985

A numerical study of global axisymmetric states and their stability to quasi-geostrophic disturbances

A steady, axisymmetric model of the general circulation is developed as a basis for climate stability studies. The model includes the effects of heating, rotation, and internal friction, but neglects topography. It is assumed that the axisymmetric flow may be modeled by making the Boussinesq and deep convection approximations. The hydrostatic assumption is not made, thus permitting the advective terms to be included in the vertical equation of motion. The initial set of five primitive equations is reduced to three equations in terms of the zonal velocity, meridional streamfunction, and the potential temperature perturbation. The application of the Boussinesq, deep convection, and quasi-geostrophic assumptions limits the ranges of the heating and rotation rates. For values not too far from typical atmospheric values, the model produces a stability boundary separating Hadley from Rossby flow. The boundary is characterized by a particular value of vertical wind shear, which suggests that baroclinic instability is the primary mechanism for the loss of stability. The initial growth rates are largest for longitudinal waves 4-7, also in agreement with studies of baroclinic instability.

Henderson, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

climate↗
NASA NTRS1985

The utilization of satellite data and dynamics in understanding and predicting global weather phenomena

A two layer spectral quasi-geostrophic model is used to simulate the effects of topography on the equilibria, the stability, and the long term evaluation of incipient unstable waves. The flow is forced by latitudinally dependent radiational heating. The nature of the form drag instability of high index equilibria is investigated. The proximity of the equilibrium shear to a resonant value is essential for the instability, provided the equilibrium occurs at a slightly stronger shear than resonance. The properties of the steady Hadley and Rossby required for a thermally forced rotating fluid on a sphere are further explained. An objective parameterization technique is developed for general nonlinear hydrodynamical systems. The typical structure is one in which the rates of change of the dependent variables depend on homogeneous quadratic and linear forms, as well as on inhomogeneous forcing terms. Also documented is a steady, axisymmetric model of the general circulation developed as a basis for climate stability studies. The model includes the effects of heating, rotation, and internal friction, but neglects topography. Included is further research on cloud street phenomena. Orientation angles and horizontal wavelengths of boundary layer rolls and cloud streets are determined from an analysis of a truncated spectral model of three dimensional shallow moist Boussinesq convection in a shearing environment is further explained. Relatively broadly spaced roll clouds have orientations for which the Fourier component of the roll perpendicular shear is nearly zero, but the second corresponds to narrowly spaced rolls having orientations for which the Fourier coefficients of both the perpendicular and the parallel components of the shear are nearly equal.

Shirer, H. N.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Climatic consequences of very high CO2 levels in Earth's early atmosphere

Earth has approximately 60 bars of carbon dioxide tied up in carbonate rocks, or roughly 2/3 the amount of CO2 of Venus' atmosphere. Two different lines of evidence, one based on thermodynamics and the other on geochemical cycles, indicate that a substantial fraction of this CO2 may have resulted in the atmosphere during the first few hundred million years of the Earth's history. A natural question which arises concerning this hypothesis is whether this would have resulted in a runaway greenhouse affect. One-dimensional radiative/convective model calculations show that the surface temperature of a hypothetical primitive atmosphere containing 20 bars of CO2 would have been less than 100C and no runaway greenhouse should have occurred. The climatic stability of the early atmosphere is a consequence of three factors: (1) reduced solar luminosity at that time; (2) an increase in planetary albedo caused by Rayleigh scattering by CO2; and (3) the stabilizing effects of moist convection. The latter two factors are sufficient to prevent a CO2-induced runaway greenhouse on the present Earth and for CO2 levels up to 100 bars. It is determined whether a runaway greenhouse could have occurred during the latter stages of the accretion process and, if so, whether it would have collapsed once the influx of material slowed down.

Kasting, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Climatic consequences of very high CO2 levels in Earth's early atmosphere

Earth has approximately 60 bars of carbon dioxide tied up in carbonate rocks, or roughly 2/3 the amount of CO2 of the atmosphere of Venus. Two different lines of evidence, one based on thermodynamics and the other on geochemical cycles, indicate that a substantial fraction of thes CO2 may have resided in the atmosphere during the first few hundred million years of the Earth's history. A natural question which arises is whether this much CO2 would have resulted in a runaway greenhouse effect. One dimensional radiative/convective model calculations presented showed that the surface temperature of a hypothetical primitive atmosphere containing 20 bars of CO2 was less than 100 C; thus no runaway greenhouse effect would have occurred. The climatic stability of the early atmosphere is a consequence of three factors: reduced solar luminosity at that time, an increase in planetary albedo caused by Rayleigh scattering by CO2, and the stabilizing effects of a moist convection. The latter two factors are sufficient to prevent a CO2 induced runaway greenhouse effect on the present Earth as well, for CO2 levels up to 100 bars. Further studies are being undertaken to determine whether a runaway greenhouse effect could have occurred during the latter stages of the accretion process and, if so, whether it would have collapsed one the influx of material slowed down.

Katsing, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Habitable zones around main sequence stars

A mechanism for stabilizing climate on the earth and other earthlike planets is described, and the physical processes that define the inner and outer boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ) around the sun and main sequence stars are discussed. Physical constraints on the HZ obtained from Venus and Mars are taken into account. A 1D climate model is used to estimate the width of the HZ and the continuously habitable zone around the sun, and the analysis is extended to other main sequence stars. Whether other stars have planets and where such planets might be located with respect to the HZ is addressed. The implications of the findings for NASA's SETI project are considered.

Kasting, James F.↗