Evaluation of sea salt aerosols in climate systems: global climate modeling and observation-based analyses*
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Yi-Chun Chen↗
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A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change
This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.
Pielke, Roger A., Sr.↗
The Impact of Model Resolution on the Southern Hemisphere in Community Climate System Model Version 4 Idealized Climate Simulations
Model resolution plays a large role in accurately simulating the Southern Hemisphere circulation in both the ocean and atmosphere. Resolving the mesoscale field is important as it has been shown to have a significant impact on the large-scale climate in eddy-rich regions, which are regions of large CO2 absorption. The presence of ocean and atmospheric mesoscale features can affect sea surface temperatures, the strength and location of storm tracks, and many other air-sea processes. Additionally, with an improvement in resolution, the eddy kinetic energy in the ocean can be expected to change considerably. The significance model resolution has on the Southern Hemisphere is examined using the Community Climate System Model, Version 4, eddy-parameterizing and eddy-resolving simulations. The CO2 concentrations and ozone levels are specified independently to better understand how the mesoscale field responds to extreme changes in external forcing and the resulting climate impacts. Overall, in the eddy-parameterizing simulations, the ozone forcing is found to be more important than the changes in CO2 concentrations. However, in the case of the eddy-resolving simulations, the CO2 concentrations are found to be more dominant, especially in eddy-rich regions. These results demonstrate the need for an increase in model resolution for climate prediction.
Daher, Houraa (ORCID:0000000200177346)↗
The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system
A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.
Neeman, Binyamin U.↗
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Observations of the Climate System
Observations of the climate system are critical for model validation and initialization, and also for monitoring in case of "surprises." Presently. we are still benefiting from data provided by the international fleet of Earth Observing satellites launched from the late 1990's onwards as well as from the longer-term record provided hy the operational meteorological satellites. However, we could be facing some data gaps in the near term in some critical areas. In situ measurements continue to be vital and, while they may be augmented hy future satellite measurements, will continue to be irreplaceable.
Sellers, Piers J.↗
Non-Monotonic Response of the Climate System to Abrupt CO2 Forcing
We explore the climate system response to abrupt CO2 forcing, spanning the range 1 × to 8×CO2, with two state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice-land models: the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2.1-G (GISS-E2.1-G) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM-LE). We find that the effective climate sensitivity is a non-monotonic function of CO2 in both models, reaching a minimum at 3×CO2 for GISS-E2.1-G, and 4×CO2 for CESM-LE. A similar non-monotonic response is found in Northern Hemisphere surface temperature, sea-ice, precipitation, the latitude of zero precipitation minus-evaporation, and the strength of the Hadley cell. Interestingly, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation collapses when non-monotonicity appears and does not recover for larger CO2 forcings. Analyzing the climate response over the same CO2 range with slab ocean versions of the same models, we demonstrate that the climate system's non-monotonic response is linked to ocean dynamics.
Non-monotonic response↗
A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system
Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.
Review, Tutorial↗
Clouds in the Arctic Climate System: A Force for Change?
Clouds play a central role in the global climate system through the modulation of Earth’s energy flows and as a mediator of precipitation. In the Arctic, clouds are also a major player; however, the processes that govern cloud evolution in the Arctic differ from most of the other regions of the globe. Thus, clouds are a key “wildcard” within the Arctic climate system that could have a substantial influence on the Arctic climate system response to anthropogenic forcing. What is the role of clouds within the phenomenon known as Arctic Amplification? This is question does not have a clear answer. Clouds seem to be a center to the important processes driving Arctic Amplification (e.g., the atmospheric response to sea ice loss and airmass transformation), however feedback analysis studies indicate that net cloud feedback in the Arctic is small. This seminar discusses the role of clouds within the Arctic Amplification processes reviewing aspects of what we know about Arctic clouds and the uncertainties that limit our ability to model them. Results from recently published and ongoing work are presented that provide an observationally-based estimate of the cloud-sea ice feedback and evaluate cloud properties within models. The goal of this presentation is to ignite a discussion and new collaborations around the best approaches to resolving uncertainties related to the role of clouds with the Arctic system and how to better represent Arctic clouds in models.
Patrick C Taylor↗
A National Program for Analysis of the Climate System
Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to fundamental advances in our understanding of climate variability and climate change is the lack of robust and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system. Such observations are critical for the identification and diagnosis of climate variations, and provide the constraints necessary for developing and validating climate models. The first generation of reanalysis efforts, by using fixed analysis systems, eliminated the artificial climate signals that occurred in analyses generated at the operational numerical weather prediction centers. These datasets are now widely used by the scientific community in a variety of applications including atmosphere-ocean interactions, seasonal prediction, climate monitoring, the hydrological cycle, and a host of regional and other diagnostic studies. These reanalyses, however, had problems that made them sub-optimal or even unusable for some applications. Perhaps the most serious problem for climate applications was that, while the assimilation system remained fixed, changes in the observing systems did produce spurious changes in the perceived climate. The first generation reanalysis products also exposed problems with physical consistency of the products and the accurate representation of physical processes in the climate system. Examples are bias in the estimates of ocean surface fluxes, and inadequate representation of polar hydrology. In this talk, I will describe some initial plans for a national program on reananlysis. The program is envisioned to be part of an on-going activity to maintain, improve, and reprocess our record of climate observations. I will discuss various issues affecting the quality of reanalyses, with a special focus on those relevant to the ocean.
Schubert, Siegfried↗
Influence of regional anthropogenic changes over Nile region on the climate system during the late Holocene (~2500 years before present)
The societal impacts of climate change during the late Holocene leads to regional anthropogenic changes over the Nile region floodplain and could have acted in tandem with natural factors like major volcanic eruptions on the regional climate system to magnify the local climatic impacts. This study aims to explore and investigate the sensitivity of climatic changes to the regional anthropogenic changes due to various factors over the Nile river floodplains during the late-Holocene (2.5K years before present). The GISS ModelE Earth system model will be used to simulate the various scenarios of regional increasing/decreasing river fraction, changes in vegetation type and cover, along with changes in land surface type against the no-changes scenario in absence of volcanic eruptions. The spatial coverage of the Nile river basin is estimated using the GIS shapefile based on elevation data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) at 3 Arc-seconds (approx. 90-meter) horizontal resolution. The extent of flooding in the model grid (2.0°x2.5° in latitude and longitude) is estimated using the existing high-resolution (0.125°x0.125°) gridded topographic elevation information and mapped over the Nile river floodplains. This study also focuses on evaluating the NASA GISS ModelE for resolving the climate feedbacks and response on climate system due to anthropogenic changes and volcanic eruptions. It is also aimed to analyze and quantify the impact of various anthropogenic factors over the African monsoon system and rainfall over the region, which feeds the Nile River.
Anthropogenic changes↗
Trade-Offs of Simplified Versus Comprehensive Representation of Mineralogy When Studying Dust Impacts on Earth’s Climate Systems
The intensity and direction of dust impacts on Earth’s climate systems depend on mineral composition. For example, the presence or absence of a few percent of iron oxides in dust will determine if dust is warming or cooling the atmosphere. Similarly, feldspar will enhance ice cloud formation, while acid gases in the atmosphere will react on the surface of dust calcite limiting acid rain. Still, most climate models use a simplified representation of dust mineralogy. They assume a fixed composition at emission which stays invariant during transport and removal. Such simplification assumes spatially and temporally constant physical and chemical properties of dust, and appears to provide satisfactory results when comparing some properties with observations. The trade-off is their lack of spatial gradients, which will fail to induce circulation, cloud and precipitation changes. The two reasons to omit mineral variations are the uncertainty of current atlases of soil mineral composition in arid regions, and, more practically, an improved runtime efficiency. The former reason is losing ground with the recent launch (July 2022) of a dedicated mission (NASA/JPL EMIT) to retrieve global soil mineralogy of dust sources at high spatial resolution. While the EMIT science team is finalizing a satisfactory global map of mineral composition of dust sources, we analyzed the interaction of dust mineralogy on radiation and its impact on the fast temperature response using different representations of mineral composition from detailed and spatially varying to simplified and globally uniform, assuming different hematite contents and methods to calculate optical properties. Our results show that resolving dust mineralogy reduces dust absorption, and results in improved agreement with observation-based single scattering albedo (SSA), radiative fluxes from CERES (the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System), and land surface temperature from CRU (Climatic Research Unit), compared to the baseline bulk dust model version. It also results in distinct radiative impacts on Earth’s climate over North Africa. From our 19-year simulation, we will show that it leads to a reduction of over 50% in net downward radiation at top of atmosphere (TOA) across the Sahara and an approximately 20% reduction over the Sahel. We will explain how the surface temperature response affects the monsoon flow from the Gulf of Guinea. Interestingly, we find similar results by simply fixing the hematite content of dust to a globally uniform value of 0.9% by volume. We will discuss the underlying reasons for such results and show that they may be unrelated to the distribution of soil mineralogy. Still, an accurate representation of soil mineralogy is necessary to better understand dust impacts on the Earth’s climate systems.
dust impacts↗
Mars: A Planet with a Dynamic Climate System
Mars is a well-observed planet. Since the 1960s orbiters, landers, rovers, and earth-based telescopic observations show that its climate system is dynamic. Its dynamic nature, largely the result of atmosphere-surface interactions, is most obvious in the seasonal cycles of dust, water, and carbon dioxide that define the planet's climate system. These cycles are linked through the global circulation and MGS, Odyssey, Phoenix, MER, Mars Express, MRO, and now MSL have continuously observed them at Mars for the past 16 years. Their observations show that while the seasonal cycles are largely annually repeatable, there are interannual variations. Planet-encircling dust storms, for example, are quasi-triennial and originate over a broader range of seasons and locations than previously thought. Water moves from pole-to-pole each year in a largely, but not precisely, repeatable pattern that suggests but does not demand non-polar surface reservoirs. And the seasonal CO2 polar caps grow and retreat in a very predictable way with only minor deviations from year-to-year in spite of significant differences in atmospheric dust content. These behaviors suggest a complicated but robust coupled system in which these cycles interact to produce the greatest interannual variability in the dust cycle and least variability in the CO2 cycle. The nature of these interactions is the subject of ongoing research, but clouds, both water ice and CO2 ice, now appear to play a bigger role than believed at the end of the 20th century. There may also be some long-term trends in these cycles as there is evidence from imaging data, for example, that the south polar residual cap may not be stable on decadal to centennial time scales. On even longer time scales, the discovery of as much as 5 mb global equivalent of buried CO2 ice near the south pole, the detection of vast quantities of subsurface water ice at very shallow depths in midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and the presence of remnant glacial features at almost all latitudes, strongly suggests the possibility of significant climate change associated with orbital variations. Some of the major questions these data raise concern how closed the seasonal cycles are and which reservoirs are gaining or loosing, the cause of the large interannual variability of the dust cycle and how it couples to the water and CO2 cycles, and the mechanisms for the origin of past glacial activity and the emplacement and removal of subsurface ice. While many of these questions can be addressed with continued research based on existing data, new observations focused on atmosphere surface-interactions would provide valuable constraints on how dust, water, and CO2 move between the surface and atmosphere.
CO2 cycles↗
Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System
Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.
Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
Interaction of the Climate System and the Solid Earth: Analysis of Observations and Models
Under SENH funding we have carried out a number of diverse analyses of interactions of the climate system (atmosphere, ocean, land surface hydrology) with the solid Earth. While the original work plan emphasized analysis of excitation of variations in Earth rotation, with a lesser emphasis on time variable gravity, opportunities that developed during the proposal period in connection with preparations for the GRACE mission led us to a more balanced effort between these two topics. The results of our research are outlined in several topical sections: (1) oceanic excitation of variations in Earth rotation; (2) short period atmosphere-ocean excitation of variations in Earth rotation; (3) analysis of coupled climate system simulation; (4) observing system simulation studies for GRACE mission design; and (5) oceanic response to atmospheric pressure loading.
Bryan, Frank↗
Observing Human-induced Linkages between Urbanization and Earth's Climate System
Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.
Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
The Ancient Martian Climate System
Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable at the surface. But there is evidence that very early in its history, some 3.7-4.1 billion years ago, the climate system supported much warmer conditions including an active hydrological cycle with rainfall and runoff. Given the importance of liquid water to astrobiology and NASA’s Mars Exploration Program, researchers have been trying to understand the ancient martian climate system since the early 1970s when the Mariner 9 spacecraft first detected fluvial features on its oldest terrains. Though the evidence for warm wet conditions is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed the sun’s luminosity was ~25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of ancient Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the “Faint Young Sun Paradox”, as it is commonly known, rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, for Mars there is no solution in sight. Long-lived continuously warm and wet atmospheres are difficult to produce and sustain. And a new and emerging idea - that ancient Mars was fundamentally a cold planet with transient episodes of warm wet conditions brought about by external forcings such as impacts, volcanism, and/or orbital changes – also has issues. In this seminar I will review this fascinating topic and discuss some of the recent ideas on how to solve it, the issues they raise, and what I believe are some promising avenues for future research.
Haberle, Robert M.↗
The Ancient Martian Climate System
Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than what they are today. I will then discuss the origin and evolution of the early atmosphere from accretion and core formation to the end of the late heavy bombardment, including estimates of the volatile inventory, outgassing history, and potential escape mechanisms. This sets the stage for a comprehensive look at the climate system of early Mars and the attempts to solve the faint young sun problem. I will review the basic physics involved and then step through the different ideas highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. I will then conclude with a summary and a discussion of potentially promising avenues of future research
Mars↗