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At least 19 records

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗

Downscaling NASA Climatological Data to Produce Detailed Climate Zone Maps

The design of energy efficient sustainable buildings is heavily dependent on accurate long-term and near real-time local weather data. To varying degrees the current meteorological networks over the globe have been used to provide these data albeit often from sites far removed from the desired location. The national need is for access to weather and solar resource data accurate enough to use to develop preliminary building designs within a short proposal time limit, usually within 60 days. The NASA Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was established by NASA to provide industry friendly access to globally distributed solar and meteorological data. As a result, the POWER web site (power.larc.nasa.gov) now provides global information on many renewable energy parameters and several buildings-related items but at a relatively coarse resolution. This paper describes a method of downscaling NASA atmospheric assimilation model results to higher resolution and maps those parameters to produce building climate zone maps using estimates of temperature and precipitation. The distribution of climate zones for North America with an emphasis on the Pacific Northwest for just one year shows very good correspondence to the currently defined distribution. The method has the potential to provide a consistent procedure for deriving climate zone information on a global basis that can be assessed for variability and updated more regularly.

Chandler, William S.↗

Reply to Comment by Velasco on “High-Resolution, Multilayer Modeling of Singapore’s Urban Climate Incorporating Local Climate Zones”

In response to the comment on our paper “High-resolution, multilayer modeling of Singapore's urban climate incorporating local climate zones,” we provide detailed response to each of the incorrect accusations with scientifically based evidence. We have evaluated our model using all the available observational data, and the results showed good agreement. Our modeling study includes assumptions, as all modeling work does, and we have discussed their rationales and possible implications.

M. O. Mughal↗

Global Variability in Sonic Boom Exposure due to Macroscopic Effects

Supersonic flight over land has been prohibited since 1973 due to the loudness of sonic booms. NASA is building the X-59 aircraft as part of its Quesst mission to demonstrate low-loudness shaped sonic booms, or “sonic thumps.” The Quesst mission will gather human perception data via a series of community noise surveys across the USA. The noise dose and perceptual response data will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the Federal Aviation Administration for use in determining potential future supersonic aircraft noise certification standards, effectively changing the prohibition from a speed limit to a noise limit. These noise regulations must be globally effective, as long travel distances see the largest benefit to supersonic flight. The state of the atmosphere through which a sonic boom travels affects the size of the region exposed to sound, the “carpet width” (CW), as well as the loudness. The focus of this dissertation is to understand and quantify the expected loudness and CW of sonic booms due to the macroscopic atmospheric effects around the world. A pair of large-scale propagation simulation studies were conducted using the NASA PCBoom code to compare predicted sonic boom loudness and CW statistics first across the USA and then across the world. For the USA study, near-field data of the X-59 in steady cruise was propagated at 4 cardinal headings at 138 locations through 5 years of Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) atmospheric profiles. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, latitude, ground elevation, season, and heading. It also noted the unimportance of time of day for predicting loudness and CW. The data is visualized in aggregate, and then broken out geographically, by season and heading, and by climate zone. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 138 locations so that estimates of the loudness and CW can be produced anywhere in the US. The results can aid in planning when and where to fly the X-59. For the global study, near-field data from three aircraft, the X-59 in a quiet and loud configuration, B-58, and Concorde, were propagated at four cardinal headings through data from three atmospheric models, the CFSv2, the Global Forecast System (GFS), and the ECMWF Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5), at 100 global locations over 1 year. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, ground elevation, season, and heading. Similar to the US study, the model indicated time of day was not an important predictor. The model also indicated that choice of weather model was not important, so the atmospheric model data are effectively interchangeable. The ERA5 model was chosen for use in an extension of the study to include 18 additional locations to ensure sampling of every climate zone. Loudness and CW results are shown in aggregate, and split geographically and by heading, season, and climate. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 118 locations so that estimates of loudness and CW can be produced around the world. N-waves and shaped booms did not have the same global variability. Koppen-Geiger climate zones were used as the climate zone definition for the global study. These are available as present-day and future climate projections. Making use of the multiple linear regression models, the future climate zones were input to estimate the effect of the changing climate on sonic boom loudness and CW. Results indicate that a changing climate would have little impact on the effectiveness of noise regulations.

X-59↗

Linear and Nonlinear Trend Analyzes in Global Satellite‐Based Precipitation, 1998–2017

Precipitation varies spatio‐temporally in amount, intensity, and frequency. Although, much research has been conducted on analyzing precipitation patterns and variation at the global scale, trend types have still not received much attention. This study developed a new polynomial‐based model for detecting nonlinear and linear trends in a satellite precipitation product (TRMM 3B43) for the 1998–2017 period at a near‐global scale. We used an automated trend classification method that detects significant trends and classifies them into linear and nonlinear (cubic, quadratic, and concealed) trend types in satellite‐based precipitation at near‐global, continental, and climate zone scales. We found that 12.3% of pixel‐based precipitation time series across the globe have significant trend at 0.05 significance level (50% positive and 50% negative trends). In all continents except Asia, decreasing trends were found to cover larger areas than corresponding increasing trends. Regarding climate zone and precipitation trend change, our results indicate that a linear trend is dominant in the warm temperate (77.7%) and equatorial climates (80.4%) while the least linear change was detected in the polar climate (68.9%). The combined results of continental and climate zone scales indicate significant increasing trends in Asia and arid climate over the last 20 yr. Furthermore, positive trends were found to be more significant at the continental scale, particularly, in Asia relative to the climate zone scale. Linear change in precipitation (80%) was the most dominant trend observed as opposed to nonlinear (quadratic [11%] and cubic [9%]) trend types at the global scale.

Majid Kazemzadeh↗

An interactive method for digitizing zone maps

A method is presented for digitizing maps that consist of zones, such as contour or climatic zone maps. A color-coded map is prepared by any convenient process. The map is then read into memory of an Image 100 computer by means of its table scanner, using colored filters. Zones are separated and stored in themes, using standard classification procedures. Thematic data are written on magnetic tape and these data, appropriately coded, are combined to make a digitized image on tape. Step-by-step procedures are given for digitization of crop moisture index maps with this procedure. In addition, a complete example of the digitization of a climatic zone map is given.

Giddings, L. E.↗

Detecting the Greatest Changes in Global Satellite-Based Precipitation Observations

In recent years, the analysis of abrupt and non-abrupt changes in precipitation has received much attention due to the importance of climate change-related issues (e.g., extreme climate events). In this study, we used a novel segmentation algorithm, DBEST (Detecting Breakpoints and Estimating Segments in Trend), to analyze the greatest changes in precipitation using a monthly pixel-based satellite precipitation dataset (TRMM 3B43) at three different scales: (i) global, (ii) continental, and (iii) climate zone, during the 1998–2019 period. We found significant breakpoints, 14.1%, both in the form of abrupt and non-abrupt changes, in the global scale precipitation at the 0.05 significance level. Most of the abrupt changes were observed near the Equator in the Pacific Ocean and Asian continent, relative to the rest of the globe. Most detected breakpoints occurred during the 1998–1999 and 2009–2011 periods on the global scale. The average precipitation change for the detected breakpoint was ±100 mm, with some regions reaching ±3000 mm. For instance, most portions of northern Africa and Asia experienced major changes of approximately +100 mm. In contrast, most of the South Pacific and South Atlantic Ocean experienced changes of −100 mm during the studied period. Our findings indicated that the larger areas of Africa (23.9%), Asia (22.9%), and Australia (15.4%) experienced significant precipitation breakpoints compared to North America (11.6%), South America (9.3%), Europe (8.3%), and Oceania (9.6%). Furthermore, we found that the majority of detected significant breakpoints occurred in the arid (31.6%) and polar (24.1%) climate zones, while the least significant breakpoints were found for snow-covered (11.5%), equatorial (7.5%), and warm temperate (7.7%) climate zones. Positive breakpoints’ temporal coverage in the arid (54.0%) and equatorial (51.9%) climates were more than those in other climates zones. Here, the findings indicated that large areas of Africa and Asia experienced significant changes in precipitation (−250 to +250 mm). Compared to the average state (trend during a specific period), the greatest changes in precipitation were more abrupt and unpredictable, which might impose a severe threat to the ecology, environment, and natural resources.

Breakpoint↗

Olivine Dissolution and Formation of Secondary phases in Ultramafic Soils

Introduction: Olivine has been proposed as an indicator for the duration of water-rock interaction within Martian rocks and sediments [1-3]. The use of olivine as a mineralogical indicator for past aqueous alteration on Mars requires interpretation of a complex combination of factors including pH, temperature, and composition [5,6]. Here, we examine the persistence of natural olivine within terrestrial ultramafic soils (Fe/Mg-rich, Al-poor) developing under different climatic conditions and the incipient dissolution of emplaced forsterite (Fo) and fayalite (Fa) surfaces to investigate environmental effects on incipient olivine dissolution, olivine persistence in soils, and formation of secondary phases. Methods: Field Sites. We examined olivine weathering and secondary material formation in ultramafic soils at 6 sites in the Klamath Mountains (KM) of northern California with a mean annual temperature of ~12.8℃ and precipitation of ~55.7-95.4 cm/year [7], and soil pH of ~6.5-7.3; 4 sites in the Tablelands (TB) of Newfoundland, Canada with a mean annual temperature of <3.9℃ and precipitation of ~120.0 cm/year [8], and soil pH of ~7.7; and at 3 sites at Pickhandle Gulch (PG), Nevada with a mean annual temperature of ~14.4℃ and precipitation of ~14.1 cm/year [7], and soil pH of ~8.5. Sampling sites span an age range of ~12.1-50+ kya in the Klamath Mountains [9,10] and ~13-30 kya in the Tablelands [11]. Pickhandle Gulch sites are undated. Parent Material and Soil Analyses. Polished thin sections of bulk soil prepared by Wagner Petrographic, Inc were carbon-coated and analyzed on a JEOL 2100 SEM in back-scattered electron mode in the EMIL lab at UNLV and at the 13-ID-E synchrotron beamline at Argonne National Laboratory using µXRF, µXRD, and XAS. Soil and parent material samples were powdered in a Fritsch pulverisette and analyzed by XRD and soil by VNIR. Soil preparation is further described in [12]. Disk Preparation, Burial, and Collection. Fo disks were cut from a column prepared via hot-pressing and Fa disks by sintering synthetic fayalite powder, see [13] for detail. Disks were polished to a 0.25-micron level with diamond grit. Disks were buried in 3 KM soils, 4 TB soils, and 3 PG soils, collected after exactly 365 days, and washed gently with 100% reagent grade ethanol to remove potential adhered soil material. Weathered disks and soil samples were stored in a -20℃ freezer until analysis. Unaltered control disks prepared identically to the buried disks were stored at -20℃ for the duration of the experiment. Disk Analyses. One Fo and Fa disk from each climate zone was analyzed on a variable pressure Zeiss Supra 40VP SEM at Northern Arizona University. A separate Fo and Fa disk from each climate zone was analyzed by XPS using a Physical Electronics VersaProbe II at the Penn State Univ. Materials Characterization Lab after a Na-dodecyl sulfate wash and ozonation to remove carbon contamination as in [14]. VNIR measurements were conducted at Johnson Space Center using an ASD FieldSpec3 under ambient lab conditions on a separate Fo and Fa disk from each climate zone. One separate Fo and Fa control sample was analyzed for each technique for comparison with weathered samples. XPS uncertainty was determined from 5 repeat measurements on controls. Results: Bedrock and Soil Results Olivine is present in the parent material in the KM and TB. Olivine is found in ~12.1 ka KM soils but is absent from all older soils, while persisting into the oldest (>20 ka) TB soil (Figure 1). In both locations, olivine is found as cores surrounded by a serpentine rind (Figure 2). VNIR spectra from the analyzed soils possess strong OH-associated spectral features at ~2.33 µm indicating the presence of Mg-rich phyllosilicates as well as ferric-oxide features at ~0.92 µm in the KM (Figure 3). Primary crystalline silicate grains mostly incorporate Fe2+, while poorly crystalline weathering rinds are best fit by ferric oxide XAS standards (Figure 4). µXRF also shows that Fe and Ni concentrate in weathering rinds and Cr remains within interior silicate grains (Figure 4). Buried Sample Results All Fo surfaces exhibited formation of dissolution features including shallow pitting not observed on controls. Dissolution features were most visually widespread on the KM disk (Figure 5). Leaching of Mg from KM and TB Fo disks was evident from <1.6 Mg/Si ratios measured by XPS (Figure 6). Fe-rich precipitates in SEM (Figure 5) and Fe presence in XPS scans (Figure 6) indicate Fe deposition onto KM and TB Fo disk surfaces. The appearance of a spectral feature at 0.55 µm in the VNIR spectra from the TB Fo suggests this Fe is ferric (Figure 7). The PG Fo appears least altered, with minimal formation of dissolution features in SEM (Figure 5), a Mg/Si ratio inconsistent with leaching (~2) (Figure 6), and VNIR spectra almost identical to the control sample. Analysis of Fa surfaces is ongoing. The higher temperatures and more acidic pH in the KM soils likely drive the faster dissolution of the Fo disks described above. While the TB soils experience greater precipitation than in the KM, the cooler temperatures and more basic soil pH facilitate observable but more limited alteration. The dry climate and basic soil pH at PG lead to minimal dissolution of the PG disk surfaces.

A D Feldman↗

Delineation of cold-prone areas using nighttime SMS/GOES thermal data Effects of soils and water

Infrared digital data from geostationary satellites were used to demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed surface temperature data to delineate microscale and mesoscale climates. Nocturnal winter data (December-February) from 1976-77 to 1978-79 over Florida revealed noticeable contrasts in surface temperature patterns. Colder areas were associated with low soil moisture content in the upper layers of excessively drained and well drained sandy soils, whereas warmer areas were associated with bodies of water, wetlands, or poorly drained soils. An unexpected surface temperature pattern for one night where the north-central Florida climatic zone was colder than the north Florida climatic zone was found to be caused by differences in antecedent frontal rainfall. Differences in surface radiant energy fluxes over these two areas at 0200 EST 20 December 1977, based on average satellite-sensed surface temperatures, were compared with differences in soil heat fluxes that were computed from 1.5 m climatological temperatures and soil thermal properties by use of a simplified surface energy balance equation.

Chen, E.↗

An Analysis of Degradation in Low-Cost Particulate Matter Sensors

Low-cost sensors (LCSs) are increasingly being used to measure fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations in cities around the world. One of the most commonly deployed LCSs is PurpleAir with ∼15 000 sensors deployed in the United States, alone. PurpleAir measurements are widely used by the public to evaluate PM 2.5 levels in their neighborhoods. PurpleAir measurements are also increasingly being integrated into models by researchers to develop large-scale estimates of PM 2.5 . However, the change in sensor performance over time has not been well studied. It is important to understand the lifespan of these sensors to determine when they should be serviced or replaced, and when measurements from these devices should or should not be used for various applications. This paper fills this gap by leveraging the fact that: (1) each PurpleAir sensor is composed of two identical sensors and the divergence between their measurements can be observed, and (2) there are numerous PurpleAir sensors within 50 meters of regulatory monitors allowing for the comparison of measurements between these instruments. We propose empirically-derived degradation outcomes for the PurpleAir sensors and evaluate how these outcomes change over time. On average, we find that the number of ‘flagged’ measurements, where the two sensors within each PurpleAir sensor disagree, increases with time to ∼4% after 4 years of operation. Approximately, 2 percent of all PurpleAir sensors were permanently degraded. The largest fraction of permanently degraded PurpleAir sensors appeared to be in the hot and humid climate zone, suggesting that sensors in these locations may need to be replaced more frequently. We also find that the bias of PurpleAir sensors, or the difference between corrected PM2.5 levels and the corresponding reference measurements, changed over time by −0.12 μg m −3 (95% CI: −0.13 μg m −3 , −0.10 μg m −3 ) per year. The average bias increases dramatically after 3.5 years. Further, climate zone is a significant modifier of the association between degradation outcomes and time.

Priyanka deSouza↗

Influence of Vegetation on Simulation of the Water Balance and Hydrological Response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Western Tropical South America

Land surface models (LSMs) rely on vegetation parameters for use in hydrological and energy balance analysis, monitoring, and forecasting. This study examines the influence that vegetation representation in the Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) LSM has on hydrological simulations across the diverse climate zones of western tropical South America (WTSA), with specific consideration of hydrological variability associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The influence of model representation of vegetation on simulated hydrology is evaluated through three simulation experiments that use 1) satellite-derived constant MODIS; 2) satellite-derived time-varying MODIS; and 3) the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model. We find substantial differences in vegetation fields between these simulations, with the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model diverging significantly from satellite-derived vegetation fields in many ecoregions. Impacts on simulated hydrology were, however, found to be modest across climate zones, except for select extreme events. Also, although impacts on hydrology under ENSO-induced variability were small, we find that the Noah-MP dynamic leaf model simulates a positive relationship between rainfall and vegetation in humid ecoregions of WTSA, where satellite observations may indicate the opposite. The relatively small sensitivity of simulated hydrology to vegetation scheme suggests that the performance of hydrological monitoring and forecasting in WTSA that uses Noah-MP is largely unaffected by the choice of vegetation scheme, such that using a simple climatological default is generally no worse than adopting more complicated options. The presence of some differences between the time-varying and constant MODIS simulations for hydrologic extremes, however, indicates that time-varying MODIS configuration might be more suitable for hydrological hazards applications.

South America↗

Integrated Assessments of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia

South Asia encompasses a wide and highly varied geographic region, and includes climate zones ranging from the mountainous Himalayan territory to the tropical lowland and coastal zones along alluvial floodplains. The region's climate is dominated by a monsoonal circulation that heralds the arrival of seasonal rainfall, upon which much of the regional agriculture relies. The spatial and temporal distribution of this rainfall is, however, not uniform over the region. Northern South Asia, central India, and the west coast receive much of their rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, between June and September. These rains partly result from the moisture transport accompanying the monsoonal winds, which move in the southwesterly direction from the equatorial Indian Ocean. Regions further south, such as south/southeast India and Sri Lanka, may receive rains from both the southwest monsoon, and also during the northeast monsoon season between October and December (with northeasterly monsoon wind flow and moisture flux), which results in a bi- or multi-modal rainfall distribution. In addition, rainfall across South Asia displays a large amount of intraseasonal and interannual variability. Interannual variability is influenced by many drivers, both natural (e.g., El Ni-Southern Oscillation; ENSO) and man-made (e.g., rising temperatures due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations), and it is challenging to obtaining accurate time-series of annual rainfall, even amongst various observed data products, which display inconsistencies amongst themselves. These climatic and rainfall variations can further complicate South Asia's agricultural and water management. Agriculture employs at least 65 of the workforce in most South Asian countries, and nearly 80 of South Asia's poor inhabit rural areas. Understanding the response of current agricultural production to climate variability and future climate change is of utmost importance in securing food and livelihoods for South Asia's growing population. In order to assess the future of food and livelihood security across South Asia, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has undertaken integrated climate-crop-economic assessments of the impact of climate change on food security and poverty in South Asia, encompassing Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. AgMIP has funded, on a competitive basis, four South Asian regional research teams (RRTs) and one South Asian coordination team (CT) to undertake climate-crop-economic integrated assessments of food security for many districts in each of these countries, with the goal of characterizing the state of food security and poverty across the region, and projecting how these are subject to change under future climate change conditions.

mountains↗

HCMM: Soil moisture in relation to geologic structure and lithology, northern California

The author has identified the following significant results. First-look qualitative geologic evaluation of day- and night-IR images discloses several en echelon linear features extending throughout the central part of the northern coast range in California, across the Mendocino triple junction and into southern Oregon. Preliminary examination of these features with respect to topographic expression, vegetation, sun angle and azimuth, and atmospheric conditions suggests that they may be related to the intracontinental plate boundary (Lake Mountain Fault zone of Herd) of the Humbolt Plate. The linear features, which cut across several climatic zones and differently vegetated regions are not confined to topographic valleys, but cross the ridges and valleys at varying angles. Lithology within the Great Valley Sequence can be detected on a few of the images; however, preliminary evaluation suggests that the thermal banding observed may be a function of sun azimuth or late-day sun angle. Soil moisture, related to lithologic composition cannot be ruled out at this time.

Rich, E. I.↗

Irrigation Water Demand Sensitivity to Climate Variability across the Contiguous United States

Climate variability is an important driver of irrigation water use in many regions. Efforts to anticipate climate change impacts on future water availability can benefit from understanding how irrigation water demand has responded to these drivers to date. Here we apply satellite derived data, meteorological reanalysis, an advanced land surface model, and available state level reports to quantify irrigation demand sensitivities to temperature and precipitation across the Contiguous United States, for the period of 2002-2017. As expected, strong negative correlations are found between precipitation and irrigation withdrawals, both simulated and reported. Temperature sensitivities, however, vary by region and season, as do the interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on irrigation. Climate-induced irrigation variability is largest in transitional climate zones. These transitional zones are generally separate from the regions where rates of irrigation withdrawals are greatest, such that climate-induced variability in irrigation demand represents a water resource consideration that is distinct from chronic over pumping.

Wanshu Nie↗

Climate Limits Across Space and Time on European Forest Structure

The impact climate has on forests has been extensively studied. However, the large scale effect climate has on forest structures, such as average diameters, heights and basal area are understudied in a spatially explicit manner. The limits, tipping points and thresholds that climate places on forest structures dictate the services a forest may provide, the vulnerability of a forest to mortality and the potential value of the timber there within. The majority of current research either investigates climate impacts on forest pools and fluxes, on a tree physiological scale or on case studies that are used to extrapolate results and potential impacts. A spatially explicit study on how climate affects forest structure over a large region would give valuable information to stakeholders who are more concerned with ecosystem services that cannot be described by pools and fluxes but require spatially explicit information - such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. In this study, we quantified the limits that climate (maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) places on 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area throughout Europe. Our results show clear climatic zones of high and low upper limits for each forest structure variable studied. We also spatially analyzed how climate restricts the potential bio-physical upper limits and creates tipping points of each forest structure variable and which climate factors are most limiting. Further, we demonstrated how the climate change has affected 8 individual forests across Europe and then the continent as a whole. We find that diameter, height and basal area are limited by climate in different ways and that areas may have high upper limits in one structure and low upper limits in another limited by different climate variables. We also found that even though individual forests may have increased their potential upper limit forest structure values, European forests as a whole have lost, on average, 5.0%, 1.7% and 6.5% in potential mean forest diameter, height and basal area, respectively.

Moreno, Adam La Salle↗

Regional mapping of forest canopy water content and biomass using AIRSAR images over BOREAS study area

In recent years, monitoring vegetation biomass over various climate zones has become the primary focus of several studies interested in assessing the role of the ecosystem responses to climate change and human activities. Airborne and spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) systems provide a useful tool to directly estimate biomass due to its sensitivity to structural and moisture characteristics of vegetation canopies. Even though the sensitivity of SAR data to total aboveground biomass has been successfully demonstrated in many controlled experiments over boreal forests and forest plantations, so far, no biomass estimation algorithm has been developed. This is mainly due to the fact that the SAR data, even at lowest frequency (P-band) saturates at biomass levels of about 200 tons/ha, and the structure and moisture information in the SAR signal forces the estimation algorithm to be forest type dependent. In this paper, we discuss the development of a hybrid forest biomass algorithm which uses a SAR derived land cover map in conjunction with a forest backscatter model and an inversion algorithm to estimate forest canopy water content. It is shown that unlike the direct biomass estimation from SAR data, the estimation of water content does not depend on the seasonal and/or environmental conditions. The total aboveground biomass can then be derived from canopy water content for each type of forest by incorporating other ecological information. Preliminary results from this technique over several boreal forest stands indicate that (1) the forest biomass can be estimated with reasonable accuracy, and (2) the saturation level of the SAR signal can be enhanced by separating the crown and trunk biomass in the inversion algorithm. We have used the JPL AIRSAR data over BOREAS southern study area to test the algorithm and to generate regional scale water content and biomass maps. The results are compared with ground data and the sources of errors are discussed. Several SAR images in synoptic modes are used to generate the parameter maps. The maps are then combined to generate mosaic maps over the BOREAS modeling grid.

Saatchi, Sasan↗

Regional Mapping of Forest Canopy Water Content and Biomass Using AIRSAR Images over BOREAS Study Area

In recent years, monitoring vegetation biomass over various climate zones has become the primary focus of several studies interested in assessing the role of the ecosystem responses to climate change and human activities. Airborne and spaceborne synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) systems provide a useful tool to directly estimate biomass due to its sensitivity structure and moisture characteristics.

Forestry↗