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At least 19 records

A Method of Ground-Based Cloud Motion Predict: CCLSTM + SR-Net

Ground-based cloud images can provide information on weather and cloud conditions, which play an important role in cloud cover monitoring and photovoltaic power generation forecasting. However, the cloud motion prediction of ground-based cloud images still lacks advanced and complete methods, and traditional technologies based on image processing and motion vector calculation are difficult to predict cloud morphological changes. In this paper, we propose a cloud motion prediction method based on Cascade Causal Long Short-Term Memory (CCLSTM) and Super-Resolution Network (SR-Net). Firstly, CCLSTM is used to estimate the shape and speed of cloud motion. Secondly, the Super-Resolution Network is built based on perceptual losses to reconstruct the result of CCLSTM and, finally, make it clearer. We tested our method on Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility TSI (total sky imager) images. The experiments showed that the method is able to predict the sky cloud changes in the next few steps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Close-up view of 20 March 1976 tornadoes - Sinking cloud tops to suction vortices

The article describes an airborne mission using a Learjet to secure direct data on a family of tornadoes spawned by a rotating thunderstorm in the Missouri-Illinois-Indiana area in March 1976 following an unusually warm February. Weakening of the tornado following increased cloud-scale vertical motion, predicted by a model constructed by Fujita (1972), was confirmed. The aircraft inspected overshooting cloud tops, examined subsidence (holes and depressions) in anvil tops it overflew, and surveyed footprints left by the tornadoes and tornado-blown litter on the ground traversed by the disturbances. Subsidence of cloud tops in advance of violent tornadoes below was confirmed. Isolated and multiple suction vortices left their characteristic ground marks; three scales of motion: tornado cyclone, tornado, and suction vortex, are evidenced by the ground truth.

Fujita, T. T.↗

Entrainment and detrainment in a simple cumulus cloud model

A cumulus cloud model, analogous to the mixed-layer models of the planetary boundary layer and the upper ocean, is developed using a single, unitary entrainment process in which the motion of the cloud boundary relative to the mean flow is permitted, produced, and controlled by turbulent processes. An alternate theory to the mixing-length theory of Asai and Kasahara (1967) is proposed which completely removes the strong scale-dependence of the Asai-Kasahara model. The model reintroduces scale-dependence by introducing including the pe5turbation pressure term of the equation of vertical motion. It is shown that the model predicts deeper clouds than the Asai-Kasahara model for a given sounding, due to the entrainment assumption and the effects of the perturbation pressure. Lateral entrainment dominates cloud-top entrainment, although finite-difference errors increase the cloud-top entrainment rate from zero to a positive value in actual situations. The fractional entrainment rate for updrafts is determined to vary only slightly with height and to decrease only slowly as the cloud radius increases, while the fractional detrainment rate for updrafts increases with height.

Randall, D. A.↗

Interstellar cloud shapes - A minimum-hypothesis account involving a purely gravitational effect

The effect produced by the anisotropic gravitational field on the shape of a nonspherical, self-gravitating interstellar cloud is examined. The projected axial ratios observed for molecular clouds can be accounted for if clouds are not generally in a state of strict dynamical equilibrium. For clouds having spectral line widths dominated by supersonic turbulent motions, this purely gravitational effect predicts a mean true axial ratio q about 0.3 for both oblate and prolate cloud geometries. Clouds having p less than about 0.3 are likely to be prolate and quite elongated. The observational data on molecular cloud cores, which have essentially thermal line widths, can be fitted equally well to either oblate or prolate spheroids having q between 0.1 and 0.4 with q about 0.2 providing the best match: highly elongated cores are again more likely to be prolate. While other processes certainly operate throughout the Galaxy to influence cloud shape, it appears plausible that at least some clouds may be shaped principally by their anisotropic gravitational field.

Fleck, Robert C., Jr.↗

Atmospheric dynamics on Venus and Mars

In this paper, recent information concerning the atmospheric dynamics of Venus and Mars is discussed. In the Venusian atmosphere, the Vega balloon results disclosed the presence of major vertical motions at the 53 km level and demonstrated the near zonality of the atmospheric circulation below the level of the clouds. Pioneer Orbiter observations indicated a continued vortex organization of the cloud level atmosphere in either hemisphere, centered over respective poles. In the case of the Martian atmospheric circulation, the observations are scant. Viking lander data and orbit images have been used to derive cloud motions and compare the measured winds with the predictions for surface conditions from general circulation models.

Limaye, Sanjay Shridhar↗

Towards Physics Guided Optical Flow for Tracking Atmospheric Motion

Observations of atmospheric 3D winds are critical for improving short-range and long-range forecasting. Such advancement in forecasting directly applies to research in a number of areas including convective processes, wildfire plumes and tornado prediction. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) provide a passively sensed approach to quantifying horizontal motion and cloud heights, which are typically sourced from geostationary sensors due to the availability of high frequency observations. Recent work has shown that estimating AMVs by tracking individual pixels with dense optical flow is a promising new direction. In this work, we compare state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks for optical flow in a physics-guided deep learning framework for predicting AMVs. The approach is semi-supervised and uses physically informed wind vectors from high-resolution numerical simulations for supervised learning followed by fine-tuning though warping and reconstruction of full-disk geostationary images (GOES-16). In the vertical direction, we use labels from the CALIPSO low-earth orbit satellite to predict cloud height from 16-band geostationary images with a neural network. We present results for both tasks on held-out time periods and secondary datasets.

Geostationary↗

Towards Physics Guided Optical Flow for Tracking Atmospheric Motion

Atmospheric 3D winds in the horizontal and vertical directions are critical for improving short-range and long-range forecasting. Such advancement in forecasting directly applies to research in a number of areas including convective processes, wildfire plumes and tornado prediction. Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) provide a passively sensed approach to quantifying horizontal motion and cloud heights, which are typically sourced from geostationary sensors due to the availability of high frequency observations. Recent work has shown that estimating AMVs by tracking individual pixels with dense optical flow is a promising new direction. In this work, we use a state-of-the-art convolutional neural network for optical flow (FlowNetS) in a physics-guided deep learning framework for predicting AMVs in the horizontal direction. The approach is semi-supervised and uses physically informed wind vectors from high-resolution numerical simulations (DYAMOND) for supervised learning followed by fine-tuning though warping and reconstruction of full-disk geostationary images (GOES-16). In the vertical direction, we use labels from the CALIPSO low-earth orbit satellite to predict cloud height from 16-band geostationary images with a neural network. We present results for both tasks on held-out time periods and secondary datasets.

geostationary↗

Automated Tracking of Shallow Maritime Clouds on Geostationary Imagery to Extract Lifecycle Characteristics

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Satellites have provided many statistics on shallow clouds, such as size, structure, and geographical coverage, from static views of recurring cloud fields. But determining why certain cloud features appear and persist for different periods requires a time-evolving view of their behaviors. Geostationary satellites provide a unique opportunity to follow the time evolution of individual convective features, given their enhanced spatial and temporal sampling. A cloud-tracking tool was developed to identify properties of cloud lifecycle from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2EX) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted intensive sampling of shallow cumulus in the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. Shallow cumulus was segmented according to thresholds in 0.5-km visible reflectance and with blurring techniques. Despite being limited to daytime hours, the segmentations yielded the best resolution possible for capturing cloud initiation and decay. The tracking procedure is based on a computer vision package that includes Kalman filters for motion prediction, object overlap search, and the Hungarian (or Kuhn-Munkres) matching algorithm for track designation. AHI radiances available within the tracked cloud boundaries are assembled to form individual spectral histories. The resulting catalog provides thousands of cloud histories for domains measuring only a few degrees in latitude and longitude. We present an overview of the cloud-tracking tool, strategies to identify development stages from cloud tracks, and preliminary results that document cumulus lifecycle properties from satellite. The application of AHI 0.5-km reflectance has both strengths and limitations when attempting to track lifecycles of the smallest resolvable clouds. We show that by aggregating cloud tracks from a few case studies of CAMP2EX, we can discern differences in cloud lifetime and development according to ensembles selected from areas of interest. The results demonstrate an ability to quantify lifetimes and assess rates of change in cloud characteristics that are likely controlled by the surrounding environment and meteorology.

Cloud Tracking↗

Automated Tracking of Shallow Maritime Clouds on Geostationary Imagery to Extract Lifecycle Characteristics

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Satellites have provided valuable insight on shallow clouds, such as size, structure, and geographical coverage, from static views of recurring cloud fields. But determining why certain cloud features appear and persist for different periods requires a time-evolving view of their behaviors. Geostationary satellites provide a unique opportunity to follow the time evolution of individual convective features, given their enhanced spatial and temporal sampling. A cloud-tracking tool was developed to identify properties of cloud lifecycle from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2EX) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted intensive sampling of shallow cumulus in the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. Shallow cumulus were segmented according to thresholds in 0.5-km visible reflectance and with blurring techniques. Despite being limited to daytime hours, the segmentations yielded the best resolution available for capturing cloud initiation, growth, and decay. The tracking procedure is based on a computer vision package that includes Kalman filters for motion prediction, object overlap search, and the Hungarian (or Kuhn-Munkres) matching algorithm for track designation. AHI radiances available within the tracked cloud boundaries are assembled to form individual spectral histories. The resulting catalog provides thousands of cloud histories for domains measuring only a few degrees in latitude and longitude. We present an overview of the cloud-tracking tool and its results for cloud fields sampled throughout CAMP2EX by the airborne P-3. Cloud tracks were selected from about 10 flights to form ensembles, specific groups of tracks occurring in a region with airborne sampling. Cloud lifecycle properties, including duration and maximum area, are calculated for all ensemble members, and analyzed for cloud behavior and P-3 coincidences. By following this strategy, we quantitatively assess the degree of airborne sampling for specific cloud classes defined by the lifecycle calculations. We can summarize which cloud classes had more sampling, the stage of development during sampling, and general differences in character (e.g., isolated congestus vs. cold-pool producer).

Cloud Tracking↗

Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to initial specification of relative humidity, liquid water and vertical motion

The influence of synoptic scale initial conditions on the accuracy of mesoscale precipitation modeling is investigated. Attention is focused on the relative importance of the water vapor, cloud water, rain water, and vertical motion, with the analysis carried out using the Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS). The fully moist primitive equation model has 15 levels and a terrain-following sigma coordinate system. A K-theory approach was implemented to model the planetary boundary layer. A total of 15 sensitivity simulations were run to investigate the effects of the synoptic initial conditions of the four atmospheric variables. The absence of synoptic cloud and rain water amounts in the initialization caused a 2 hr delay in the onset of precipitation. The delay was increased if synoptic-scale vertical motion was used instead of mesoscale values. Both the delays and a choice of a smoothed moisture field resulted in underestimations of the total rainfall.

Kalb, M. W.↗

A numerical model of electrodynamics of plasma within the contaminant gas cloud of the Space Shuttle Orbiter at low earth orbit

A two-dimensional cloud was used to study the plasma dynamics within the outgas cloud associated with the Orbiter. It is shown that the polarization field is not symmetric about the direction of motion of the outgas cloud. It rotates in a way that can be predicted in simple cases by the ratio of the Hall and Pederson currents within the outgas cloud. The polarization field magnitude produced in the model was not large.

Eccles, J. Vincent↗

Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE)

Convective clouds play an important role in Earth’s climate system and are a known source of extreme weather. Gaps in our understanding of convective vertical motions, microphysics, and precipitation across a full range of aerosol and meteorological regimes continue to limit our ability to predict the occurrence and intensity of these cloud systems. To improve predictability, the National Science Foundation (NSF) sponsored a large field experiment entitled “Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation, and Environment (ESCAPE).” ESCAPE took place between 30 May and 30 September 2022 in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, because this area frequently experiences isolated deep convection that interacts with the region’s mesoscale circulations and its range of aerosol conditions. ESCAPE focused on collecting observations of isolated deep convection through innovative sampling and developing novel analysis techniques. This included the deployment of two research aircraft, the National Research Council of Canada Convair-580 and the Stratton Park Engineering Company Learjet, which combined conducted 24 research flights from 30 May to 17 June. On the ground, three mobile X-band radars and one mobile Doppler lidar truck equipped with soundings were deployed from 30 May to 28 June. From 1 August to 30 September 2022, a dual-polarization C-band radar was deployed and operated using a novel, multisensor agile adaptive sampling strategy to track the entire life cycle of isolated convective clouds. Analysis of the ESCAPE observations has already yielded preliminary findings on how aerosols and environmental conditions impact the convective life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Entrainment instability and vertical motion as causes of stratocumulus breakup

Entrainment instability is thought to be a cause of stratocumulus breakup. At the interface between the cloud and the overlying air, mixtures may form which are negatively buoyant because of cloud droplet evaporation. Quantities devised to predict breakup are obtained from aircraft observations and are tested against cloud observations from satellite. Often, the parameters indicate that breakup should occur but the clouds remain, sometimes for several days. One possible explanation for breakup is vertical motion from passing synoptic cyclones. Several cases suggest that breakup is associated with the downward vertical motion from the cold air advected behind an eastward moving cyclone.

Weaver, C. J.↗

New Particle Formation Events Over the Southeast Atlantic Coincide With the African Biomass Burning Season

Abstract We investigated the occurrence and evolution of new particle formation (NPF) events over the southeast Atlantic. The studied region is under the influence of the long‐range transport of aerosols and gases during the southern African biomass burning season, from June to October every year. Interestingly, NPF was observed to coincide with the African biomass burning season, although wet removal of pre‐existing aerosols is needed during these NPF events. Surface and airborne measurements show that these NPF events likely occurred in the upper region of the marine boundary layer, and the newly formed aerosols were further transported to the surface via vertical air motions. Using a box model, we predicted that a large fraction of these particles could grow to sizes related to cloud condensation nuclei. Our study shows that NPF can occur over the southeast Atlantic, and the African biomass‐burning plume likely contributed to the NPF occurrence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Jovian meteorology - Large-scale moist convection

The suggestion that latent heat of water controls Jovian meteorology is reviewed, and predictions are made for the other outer planets. The observed slow variation and two-dimensional character of motions at cloud-top level is explained. It depends on (1) the thermal structure between water-cloud level and the level of emission to space being closely adiabatic and (2) the large static stability of the emission layer.

Gierasch, P. J.↗

Simulations of Instabilities in Complex Valve and Feed Systems

CFD analyses are playing an increasingly important role in identifying and characterizing flow induced instabilities in rocket engine test facilities and flight systems. In this paper, we analyze instability mechanisms that range from turbulent pressure fluctuations due to vortex shedding in structurally complex valve systems to flow resonance in plug cavities to large scale pressure fluctuations due to collapse of cavitation induced vapor clouds. Furthermore, we discuss simulations of transient behavior related to valve motion that can serve as guidelines for valve scheduling. Such predictions of valve response to varying flow conditions is of crucial importance to engine operation and testing.

Ahuja, Vineet↗

"Coulombic Viscosity" In Granular Materials: Planetary and Astrophysical Implications

The term "Coulombic viscosity" is introduced here to define an empirically observed phenomenon from experiments conducted in both microgravity, and in ground-based 1-g conditions. In the latter case, a sand attrition device was employed to test the longevity of aeolian materials by creating two intersecting grain-circulation paths or cells that would lead to most of the grain energy being expended on grain-to-grain collisions (simulating dune systems). In the areas in the device where gravitationally-driven grain-slurries recycled the sand, the slurries moved with a boundary-layer impeded motion down the chamber walls. Excessive electrostatic charging of the grains during these experiments was prevented by the use of an a.c. corona (created by a Tesla coil) through which the grains passed on every cycle. This created both positive and negative ions which neutralized the triboelectrically-generated grain charges. When the corona was switched on, the velocity of the wall-attached slurries increased by a factor of two as approximately determined by direct observation. What appeared to be a freely-flowing slurry of grains impeded only by intergranular mechanical friction, had obviously been significantly retarded in its motion by electrostatic forces between the grains; with the charging reduced, the grains were able to move past one another without a flow "viscosity" imposed by the Coulombic intergranular forces. A similar phenomenon was observed during microgravity experiments aboard Space Shuttle in USML-1 & USML-2 spacelabs where freely-suspended clouds of sand were being investigated for their potential to for-m aggregates. In this environment, the grains were also charged electrostatically (by natural processes prior to flight), but were free from the intervention of gravity in their interactions. The grains were dispersed into dense clouds by bursts of air turbulence and allowed to form aggregates as the ballistic and turbulent motions damped out. During this very brief (30-60 sec) damping period, motion of the grains was observed to be retarded by the electrostatic interactions. The fact that the grains almost instantly formed aggregates was evidence that their ballistic motions had been constrained and redirected by the dipole-dipole interactions that led to filamentary aggregate development. Undoubtedly, the "Coulombic viscosity" of the cloud assisted in damping grain motion so rapidly. The electrostatically-induced grain-cloud viscosity or drag exerted on grain motion, is a complex function of three major parameters: charge magnitude, charge sign, and mean intergranular distance. The above experiments illustrate one particular type of granular behavior. The discussion here will therefore be restricted to drag relationships: (a) between grains that are naturally charged triboelectrically and thus exhibit dipole-dipole attractions between one another even if there are slight net charges present (which can be overwhelmed by dipole coupling at short distances), and (b) between grains that are densely spaced where the intergranular distance varies between zero and some value (usually tens or hundreds of grain diameters) that permits each grain to detect the dipole moment of another grain -- the distance is not so great that other grains appears as neutral electrical "singularities. I. Aeolian transport: During motion of grains in a saltation cloud (on Earth, Mars, or Venus), triboelectric charging must occur as a result of multiple grain contacts, and by friction with the entraining air. A situation might develop that is similar to the one described above in the attrition device: grain motion becoming significantly retarded (reduced flux) as grains find it increasingly difficult to either separate from the surface, or to pass one another without Coulombic retarding forces. A "Coulombic drag" will exist at flux initiation and increase with time to work in direct opposition to the aerodynamic drag that drives the grain motion. It is predicted that this will lead to an increase with time of both the aerodynamic and bed-dilatancy thresholds (3). Because of Paschen discharge effects in the martian atmosphere, the electrostatic charging in a saltation cloud may be partially abated, but this will lead to greater grain mobility, more charging, and thus to a charge-discharge steady state mediated by mechanical interactions. II. Dry colluvial systems: Sand avalanches on dunes, dry debris flows, talus flows, avalanches, and pyroclastic surges are examples of gravity-driven, dense granular flows where rock/grain fragmentation and grain-to-grain interactions cause triboelectrification (sometimes augmented by other electrical charging processes), and where the grain densities of the systems are such that strong dipole-dipole interactions between grains might be expected to be present. Because it is expected that the Coulombic forces between grains will cause a sluggishness or enhanced granular-flow viscosity, the motion of a grain mass will be retarded or damped so that this will assist, ultimately, in terminating the flow. The greatest Coulombic viscosity will be created in the most highly charged systems, which will also be the most energetic. Thus, grain flows have some tendency to be self-limiting by internal energy partitioning; gravitational potential is converted to Coulombic potential, which manifests itself as a drag force between the grains. III. Volcanic eruption plumes and impact ejecta curtains: The violence of these systems leads to powerful electrical charging of particulates. Lightning storms emanating from volcanic plumes are a testimony to the levels of charging. As pyroclastic grains interact forcefully and frequently within eruption plumes, it is reasonable to predict that the internal turbulent motions of the plume will be significantly damped by the Coulombic viscosity exerted by grain charges. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗