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Results for “cloudy regression”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1982

Validation of Nimbus-7 temperature-humidity infrared radiometer estimates of cloud type and amount

Estimates of clear and low, middle and high cloud amount in fixed geographical regions approximately (160 km) squared are being made routinely from 11.5 micron radiance measurements of the Nimbus-7 Temperature-Humidity Infrared Radiometer (THIR). The purpose of validation is to determine the accuracy of the THIR cloud estimates. Validation requires that a comparison be made between the THIR estimates of cloudiness and the 'true' cloudiness. The validation results reported in this paper use human analysis of concurrent but independent satellite images with surface meteorological and radiosonde observations to approximate the 'true' cloudiness. Regression and error analyses are used to estimate the systematic and random errors of THIR derived clear amount.

Stowe, L. L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Team 2: AIRS Only Retrieval

This slide presentation makes the case for the retrieval of data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). AIRS only retrieval is not only a risk reduction for failure of AMSU, but also important because NWP centers are reluctant to assimilate AMSU twice.

cloudy regression↗
NASA NTRS1983

Fitting of satellite and in-situ ocean surface temperatures Results for polymode during the winter of 1977-1978

For the period considered, December 1977 through February 1978, bivariate Gaussian discriminant function cloud identification revealed that more than 93 percent of the 8-km resolution GOES infrared pixels were cloud contaminated. Cloud-free in-situ calibration points were distributed in nonrandom groups; this resulted in systematic errors when using least squares techniques. Surfaces and regression lines were least squares fitted between satellite and in-situ data; use was also made of differences and ratios. The best results were achieved with a regression in the form of the infrared radiative transfer equation; but this was no better than + or - 0.9 K. Because of extensive cloudiness, the linear regressions were seldom useful, and temperature ratios with + or - 1.3 K experimental errors best represent the applicability of GEOS data to sea surface temperatures.

Maul, G. A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar forecasting using machine learned cloudiness classification

Methods and systems for predicting irradiance include learning a classification model using unsupervised learning based on historical irradiance data. The classification model is updated using supervised learning based on an association between known cloudiness states and historical weather data. A cloudiness state is predicted based on forecasted weather data. An irradiance is predicted using a regression model associated with the cloudiness state.

Hamann, Hendrik F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Deriving Broadband Radiances from Geostationary Satellite Visible Radiance Channels for Use in the CERES SYN1deg Product

The NASA CERES project was designed to monitor the Earth’s radiation budget, both at the regional and global scale. The CERES SSF1deg single satellite product provides TOA flux observations from Aqua, Terra, NPP, and NOAA-20. The SYN1deg product incorporates observations from Terra, Aqua, and geostationary (GEO) satellites. The GEO observations are included in the SYN1deg product to infer the regional diurnal cycle between CERES observations. GEO satellites throughout the CERES record have different narrowband spectral response functions and do not directly observe radiances over the broadband spectra of CERES instruments. Hence the emphasis of this study is improving the process of deriving broadband radiances from the myriad GEO visible channel observations. We present a new method for converting the narrowband radiances observed from GEO operational satellites. This study relies on radiative transfer model hyper-spectral radiances for many cloud and surface conditions under all angular conditions observed by GEO sensors. First, the hyper-spectral radiances from a radiative transfer model must be convolved with the spectral response function of the visible imager for each GEO sensor in the CERES record. For each angular bin and surface type, the clear-sky and multiple optical depth and phase cloudy-sky narrowband and broadband reflectance pairs are linearly regressed. This study found that, no matter how the scene conditions are stratified, for example the all-sky, clear-sky, ice or water clouds, they all provide similar linear regressions. This includes ocean glint conditions, where the clear-sky reflectance exceeds cloudy conditions and yet the relationship was found to be linear in the given angular bin. This infers that no GEO retrieved cloud information is necessary in the narrowband to broadband conversion process, which relies only on visible channel reflectance. Over land, most of the GEO visible channels do not observe the NIR vegetation reflectance. We intend to use land adjustment factors developed using the TOA reflectance difference between the real-time MODIS .86um and the .64um channel. We validate this approach by using coincident observational data between CERES and MODIS aboard Aqua and Terra as well as GEO and CERES observations .

CERES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Effect of Updraft Entrainment on Convective Cell Deepening in Realistic Large-Eddy Simulations

Entrainment of surrounding cooler and drier air into convective updrafts is one of the key processes that influence deep convection initiation and growth. Numerous studies have investigated the effect of entrainment on isolated convective cloud growth in idealized simulations, but the importance of this effect in realistic conditions with many interacting convective clouds remains uncertain. We examine the impact of entrainment on the depth reached by convective clouds in realistic large-eddy simulations (LES) over central Argentina during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign. Cloudy updrafts and their associated properties are assigned to convective cells tracked with radar reflectivity signatures. Several thousand convective cells are tracked over two high convective available potential energy (CAPE) and two low CAPE cases that support cells of varying depths and intensities. Entrainment is calculated explicitly as the fluxes of air into the outer surface of each cloudy updraft. Single-predictor logistic regression models are used to determine the relative importance of updraft, near-updraft, and preconvective initiation atmospheric conditions in predicting whether convective cells become deep. We then build a multiple-predictor regression model pairing important updraft and meteorological metrics with fractional entrainment rate. The probability of cells transitioning to deep convection is most sensitive to ambient 600-hPa relative humidity (42% of total metric contribution to cloud depth predictability), followed by low-level CAPE (28%), cloud-base updraft width (19%), and fractional entrainment (11%). Thus, the initial width of the updraft along with potential buoyancy and its dilution through the midtroposphere collectively determine whether deep convection will result from shallower clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Results of the joint NASA/NOAA AMTS/HIRS2 sounding simulation test

The relative accuracies of atmospheric temperature profiles retrieved from HIRS2, the current operational infra-red temperature sounder, and AMTS, a proposed advanced high-spectral resolution infra-red sounder were compared. The sounding simulation test compared retrievals generated by GLAS, using their physical retrieval algorithm, and NESDIS, using their operational statistical regression algorithm, for both instruments under clear and cloudy conditions. Test results for both conditions are summarized in tables showing RMS temperature errors for 18 tropospheric layers, 4 stratospheric layers, and surface skin temperature. The improvement of the AMTS instrument over HIRS2, particularly for cloudy conditions is demonstrated. The GLAS retrievals are more accurate than the operational NESDIS retrieval, especially with increasing cloud cover.

Susskind, J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

NOAA/NASA Joint Simulation of AMTS and HIRS

Sounding simulation test was designed to compare the relative accuracies of atmospheric temperature profiles retrieved from HIRS2, the current operational infrared temperature sounder, and AMTS, a proposed advanced high spectral resolution infrared sounder. Retrievals generated by GLAS, using their physical retrieval algorithm, and NESDIS, using their operational statistical regression algorithm, for both instruments under clear and cloudy conditions were compared. In the cloudy portion of the test, MSU data, corresponding to the microwave component of the current operational sounding system, was used in conjunction with both instruments to aid in cloud seeding.

Susskind, J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Applications of Fuzzy Clustering Techniques to Stratified by Tropopause MSU Temperature Retrievals

The fuzzy partitioned clustering method was applied to predict tropopause height only using microwave information with an eye towards using it on real data under cloudy conditions. In the second stage stratified by tropopause regression temperature retrievals included using only the three or four microwave channels for each 40 mb range. The first step in the experiment is the fuzzy partitioned clustering of the microwave brightness temperatures. This method is a combination of standard hard clustering and discriminant analysis. The fuzzy partitioned clustering uses all the generated probabilities of membership of each pattern vector in any of the given clusters. These probabilities are generated by discriminant analysis to locate the correct cluster. The ultimate goal of standard discriminant analysis is to provide the unique (correct) cluster to which the pattern vector belongs. It was only the maximum of all the generated probabilities. The method uses all the probabilities and weight the regressions generated within each cluster. These regression formulas predict the tropopause height from the microwave brightness temperatures. In the second step the microwave regression temperature retrievals are stratified by tropopause height every 40 mb. The control experiment is defined, the data are stratified by land/ocean, summer/winter, and latitude bands.

Munteanu, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Top-of-Atmosphere Direct Radiative Effect of Aerosols over Global Oceans from Merged CERES and MODIS Observations

The direct radiative effect of aerosols (DREA) is defined as the difference between radiative fluxes in the absence and presence of aerosols. In this study, the direct radiative effect of aerosols is estimated for 46 months (March, 2000 to December, 2003) of merged CERES and MODIS Terra global measurements over ocean. This analysis includes the contribution from clear regions in both clear and partly cloudy CERES footprints. MODIS-CERES narrow-to-broadband regressions are developed to convert clear-sky MODIS narrowband radiances to broadband SW radiances, and CERES clear-sky Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) are used to estimate the corresponding TOA radiative fluxes needed to determine the DREA. Clear-sky MODIS pixels are identified using two independent cloud masks: (i) the NOAA-NESDIS algorithm used for inferring aerosol properties from MODIS on the CERES Single Scanner Footprint TOA/Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SSF) product (NOAA-SSF); and (ii) the standard algorithm used by the MODIS aerosol group to produce the MODO4 product (MODO4). Over global oceans, direct radiative cooling by aerosols for clear scenes identified from MODO4 is estimated to be 5.5 W m-2, compared to 3.8 W m-2 for clear scenes from NOAA-SSF. Regionally, differences are largest in areas affected by dust aerosol, such as oceanic regions adjacent to the Saharan and Saudi Arabian deserts, and in northern Pacific Ocean regions influenced by dust transported from Asia. The net total-sky (clear and cloudy) DREA is negative (cooling) and is estimated to be -2.0 W m-2 from MOD04, and -1.6 W m-2 from NOAA-SSF. The DREA is shown to have pronounced seasonal cycles in the Northern Hemisphere and large year-to-year fluctuations near deserts. However, no systematic trend in deseasonalized anomalies of the DREA is observed over the 46-month time series considered.

Loeb, N. G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of a Machine Learning Algorithm in Generating an Evapotranspiration Data Product From Coupled Thermal Infrared and Microwave Satellite Observations

Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main energy sources for atmospheric dynamics and a critical component of the local, regional, and global water cycles. Consequently, accurate measurement or estimation of ET is one of the most active topics in hydro-climatology research. With massive and spatially distributed observational data sets of land surface properties and environmental conditions being collected from the ground, airborne or space-borne platforms daily over the past few decades, many research teams have started to use big data science to advance the ET estimation methods. The Geostationary satellite Evapotranspiration and Drought (GET-D) product system was developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2016 to generate daily ET and drought maps operationally. The primary inputs of the current GET-D system are the thermal infrared (TIR) observations from NOAA GOES satellite series. Because of the cloud contamination to the TIR observations, the spatial coverage of the daily GET-D ET product has been severely impacted. Based on the most recent advances, we have tested a machine learning algorithm to estimate all-weather land surface temperature (LST) from TIR and microwave (MW) combined satellite observations. With the regression tree machine learning approach, we can combine the high accuracy and high spatial resolution of GOES TIR data with the better spatial coverage of passive microwave observations and LST simulations from a land surface model (LSM). The regression tree model combines the three LST data sources for both clear and cloudy days, which enables the GET-D system to derive an all-weather ET product. This paper reports how the all-weather LST and ET are generated in the upgraded GET-D system and provides an evaluation of these LST and ET estimates with ground measurements. The results demonstrate that the regression tree machine learning method is feasible and effective for generating daily ET under all weather conditions with satisfactory accuracy from the big volume of satellite observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Warm boundary-layer cloud properties and cloud susceptibilities product at the ARM ENA observatory

Cloud liquid water path, albedo, and cloud fraction susceptibilities for marine warm boundary-layer clouds are quantified using the Meteosat retrieved cloud microphysical properties at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory in the Azores. The Meteosat cloud retrievals are based on the methods applied by the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, which are specifically tailored to support the ARM user facility over the ARM ground-based observation sites (enavisstpx2dm11minnisX1.c1). Cloud susceptibility is quantified as the slope between cloud properties and Nd within a 1-degree-by-1-degree grid box at each satellite time step using a least-square regression. To reduce uncertainties associated with the adiabatic assumption in the Nd retrieval, for each cloud object, we exclude cloudy pixels at the cloud edge, defined as those adjacent to cloud-free pixels. To minimize influence of cloud heterogeneity and co-variability on the retrieved cloud susceptibility, cloud properties are averaged to 0.25-degree resolution using the 3-km pixel-level retrieval, and the 1-degree cloud susceptibilities are estimated using the smoothed data. Cloud type classification is applied to distinct cloud object, labeling all contiguous cloudy pixels. Marine warm boundary-layer clouds are defined as clouds with 90% of cloud tops below 3km, and Meteosat retrieved cloud phase as liquid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

The effect of cloud type on earth's energy balance - Results for selected regions

International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) C1 cloud information is compared with planetary albedo, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), and net radiation measured at the top of the atmosphere by the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Principal component analysis indicates that the day-to-day variations of the abundances of the 35 cloud types of the C1 data are correlated with each other, so that for many purposes the data set can be well represented by about five cloud types. Using stepwise multiple regression, the ISCCP C1 data can be used to predict the day-to-day variations of the energy balance measured by ERBE for 2.5-deg regions. Total fractional area coverage of cloudiness is a relatively poor predictor of radiation budget quantities. If the total fractional area coverage by clouds is divided into contributions from several distinct cloud types, the fractional coverages by these several cloud types will together form a much better prediction of radiation budget quantities than the single variable of total fractional-area cloud coverage. The regression equations can be used to estimate the net effect of clouds on the radiation balance and the contributions from particular types of clouds to albedo, OLR, and net radiation.

Ockert-Bell, Maureen E.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The use of polar-orbiting satellite sounding data to estimate rural maximum and minimum temperatures

Atmospheric sounding products from NOAA's polar-orbiting satellites were used to derive and test predictive equations of rural shelter-level maximum and minimum temperatures. Sounding data from both winter and summer months were combined with surface data from over 5300 cooperative weather stations in the continental United States to develop multiple linear regression equations. Separate equations were developed for both maximum and minimum temperature, using the three types of sounding retrievals (clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy). Clear retrieval models outperformed others, and maximum temperatures were more accurately predicted than minimums. Average standard deviations of observed rural shelter temperatures within sounding search areas were of similar magnitude to root-mean-square errors from satellite estimates for most clear and partly cloudy cases, but were significantly less for cloudy retrieval cases. Model validation for surrogate polar and tropical climatic regions showed success in application of the four clear retrieval models (maximum and minimum temperature, for both winter and summer). This indicates the potential adaptability of these models to estimates of rural shelter temperature in areas outside of the United States.

Johnson, Gregory L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Calibration of the spin-scan ozone imager aboard the dynamics Explorer 1 satellite

The calibration technique, which contains the calibrated backscattered radiance values necessary for performing the calibrations, is presented. The calibration constants for September to October 1981 to determine total columnar ozone from the Spin-Scan Ozone Imager (SOI), which is a part of the auroral imaging instrumentation aboard the Dynamics Explorer 1 Satellite, are provided. The precision of the SOI-derived total columnar ozone is estimated to be better than 2.4 percent. Linear regression analysis was used to calculate correlation coefficients between total columnar ozone obtained from Dobson ground stations and SOI which indicate that the SOI total columnar ozone determination is equally accurate for clear or cloudy weather conditions.

Bressette, Walter E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Convolutional neural networks for intra-hour solar forecasting based on sky image sequences

Accurate and timely solar forecasts play an increasingly critical role in power systems. Compared to longer forecasting timescales, very short-term solar forecasting has lagged behind in both research and practice. In this paper, we propose deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to provide operational intra-hour (10-minute-ahead to 60-minute-ahead) solar forecasts. We develop two CNN structures inspired by a widely-used CNN architecture. The CNNs are tailored to our solar forecasting regression tasks and rely solely on sky image sequences. Case studies based on six years of data (over 150,000 data points) demonstrate that the best CNN model has forecast skill scores of 20%-39% over the naive persistence of cloudiness benchmark, even at these very short timescales. The CNNs also have consistently superior performance when compared to shallow machine learning models with meteorological predictors, where the improvement averages around 7%. The sensitivity analyses show that the sky image length, resolution, and weather conditions have impacts on the deep learning model accuracy. In our intra-hour problem with specific setups, two sky images with a 10-minute 128 x 128 resolution yield the most accurate forecasts. Current limitations, future work, and deployment challenges and solutions are also discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗