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At least 19 records

Maldives Climate II: Evaluating the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Human Development and Coastal Infrastructure

The Republic of the Maldives is a low-lying island nation in the Indian Ocean which has experienced rapid urbanization, landcover changes, and sea level rise over recent years. The growth of tourism, coastal erosion, and urbanization have all driven land reclamation efforts across many islands. As in-situ landcover change monitoring has proven difficult across the vast archipelago, the NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with the Maldives Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, and Technology; USAID; and the U.S. Department of State, to utilize Earth observations to predict sea level rise impacts on coastal infrastructure. The team used a supervised classification algorithm within Google Earth Engine to create land use maps and time series analyses of nine islands and atolls using imagery from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument, and PlanetScope, covering a combined period of 2000 through 2023. Additionally, the team projected coastal inundation with a modified deterministic Bathtub model utilizing elevation data from CoastalDEM and 2050-2100 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios identified in the NASA Sea Level Rise Projection Tool. The team found that islands undergoing urban growth experienced a 23% decrease in vegetation between 2014 and 2022. Furthermore, the model predicted that 51–57% of the study area’s-built environment has a chance of inundation by 2100 under the low and high sea level scenarios. These analyses demonstrate how remote sensing can be used to both track land use changes over time and project how coastlines will be affected by sea level rise.

remote sensing↗

IEA Wind TCP Task 49: Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays

This report, prepared within Work package 1 of IEA Wind Task 49, presents reference site conditions for floating wind arrays to serve as a design basis for the techno-economic design of reference floating wind arrays. Data of the reference sites presented here are publicly available in an open database and thus support fast development and comparable design of floating wind arrays for various relevant conditions. The development of these reference sites drew on existing open access datasets and ongoing research projects of task participants. Six classes were identified that describe relevant key conditions for the design and development of floating wind arrays: met-ocean conditions, seabed conditions, coastal infrastructure, environmental impact, socio-economic impact, as well as regulations and permissions. The reference sites for the techno-economic design of floating wind arrays are based on a concept with building blocks to synthesize purpose-built site representations. In each of the identified classes with influencing design factors, building blocks are used to describe the characteristic properties and their spread. However, the latter three classes (i.e., environmental impact, socio-economic impact, regulations and permissions) are not included in the reference site conditions due to limited knowledge and lack of reliable criteria to quantify their impact on the techno-economic design in numeric parameters. Building blocks with key parameters for the techno-economic design of floating wind arrays are provided for met-ocean conditions, seabed conditions, and coastal infrastructure. For met-ocean conditions, multiple sites were selected for detailed analysis that represent a range of conditions across the pipeline of floating wind projects. Wind conditions and sea states are separated, and each location considers both the severity of wind and waves e.g. one site may have a moderate wave condition but severe wind condition. From this pipeline, eleven representative sites were selected where both site-specific analysis was available within the consortium, and where they represent different parts of the global pipeline. The eleven sites are: Hannibal (Italy), Humboldt (US), Ulsan (South Korea), MoneyPoint One (Ireland), Havbredey (UK), Fukushima (Japan), Utsira Nord (Norway), Gulf of Maine (US), Sud de la Bretagne II (France), Sorlige Nordsjo II (Norway). Each of these sites is summarized in the main report while more details about the studies and analyses behind the datasets are provided in the appendix. For seabed conditions, general information about the geotechnical parameters is provided and a baseline is established for the geotechnical parameters and stratigraphy that may be encountered on the sites. A set of six 'synthetic cases' is defined as building blocks providing the different parameters required for design under each case/soil condition. For the coastal infrastructure, general information about the main requirements is provided that a port should comply with to provide a satisfactory service during the construction of floating offshore wind arrays. Minimum port infrastructural requirements are provided for three types of ports.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Pulse Electrodeposition for Carbonate-Rich Deposits from Seawater

Seawater electrodeposition is gaining renewed interest in the context of sustainable development, both to build climate-resilient coastal infrastructure and for ocean-based decarbonization applications. Most of the applications benefit from CaCO 3 -rich deposits, but constant-voltage electrodeposition results in a mixture of CaCO 3 and Mg(OH) 2 , especially at higher voltages where precipitation rates are more desirable. The use of pulse voltages can help control interfacial pH that dictates the precipitation reactions. Here, we explore the use of pulse electrodeposition as a function of pulse frequency and duty cycle to control deposit composition. The most CaCO 3 -rich deposits were obtained under 10 Hz frequency and 10% duty cycle conditions for the voltage window investigated (-0.8 V to -1.2 V vs. SCE). While pulsing the voltage increases the amount of CaCO 3 deposited, the energy required per gram of CaCO 3 is significantly higher (14.5×) when compared to the base case of applying a constant voltage of -0.8 V vs. SCE. Further optimization of pulse conditions, electrode materials, and system configuration could lead to finding parameters that result in exclusively carbonate deposits without compromising precipitation rates, which may prove to be more useful for corrosion protection, coastal infrastructure, and other applications in sustainable development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Keweenaw Bay Water Resources: Turbidity Data Decision Support for Shoreline Assessment and Management in Lake Superior's Keweenaw Bay

Community Concerns: Keweenaw Bay is vulnerable to flooding and erosion, which threaten wetland restoration projects that provide a critical habitat for wildlife and fish. Erosion and flooding threaten the loss of public beaches and shoreline, coastal infrastructure, and impacts to coastal highways, which has driven shoreline armoring projects. Our goals were to first, produce a seasonal turbidity analysis to understand the sediment redistribution patterns in the bay during snow melt and rainy seasons to provide insight into coastal sediment dynamics. KBIC has completed an Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) - funded project titled "Long-Term Coastal Dynamic Collaborative for Tribal Resiliency" which has thus far produced detailed shoreline maps of the area. The NASA DEVELOP project is taking place in between phase 1 and 2 of the EPA-funded project.

Khaim Syed-Raza↗

IEA Wind Task 49: Reference Site Conditions for Floating Wind Arrays

The commercial-scale deployment of floating offshore wind (FOW) projects is expected to take place in a diverse range of sites that may differ significantly from existing fixed-bottom projects. FOW farms are particularly sensitive to the water depth and the meteorological and oceanographic (metocean) and geotechnical conditions at the project site due to the wave-induced system motions and loads as well as the anchoring system constraints imposed by the seafloor conditions. Uncertainty around the site conditions will permeate through all aspects of project design, leading to suboptimal and overly conservative designs, increased costs, and adversely affected performance. As FOW expands into a global industry, metocean and geotechnical conditions will increasingly vary for projects located in different geographic regions or in far-from-shore, deep-water sites. This study represents the outputs of work package 1 of International Energy Agency Wind Task 49, which focuses on the integrated design of floating wind arrays. The primary goal of this study is to establish the type of parameters and constraints required to characterize FOW array reference sites; provide a realistic and publicly available set of reference site conditions to the FOW community as a baseline set of data for individual research projects; identify and categorize any critical gaps in the existing data or methodologies required to define reference site characteristics; and inform and support the design of reference FOW arrays. A building block concept was developed for synthesizing reference sites for the design of FOW arrays. The building blocks include three classes of site conditions focusing on the techno-economic design of FOW projects: metocean conditions, seabed conditions, and coastal infrastructure. All reference site data produced and collected in this study are publicly available.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mapping Recent Coastal Shoreline Changes in Southwestern Alaska Using Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery

Coastal communities in Alaska are frequently subjected to storm surges that erode shorelines and riverbanks, which increases flood risks around critical village infrastructure. Coastal erosion in western Alaska may be occurring currently at rates as high as 15 m per year, but the region has not been mapped in enough detail to accurately assess recent shoreline and inland riverbank erosion rates. To update the mapping of changes in all of SWAlaska’s coastal margins, Landsat 8 satellite imagery was analyzed to detect trends in the normalized difference water index collected from 2013 to 2023. The normalized difference water index values range from -1 to 1, with negative values indicating majority land that includes soil and live vegetation cover and positive values indicating majority water coverage. Results showed marked coastal shoreline erosion at Chagvan Bay, Hagemeister Island, and Nanvak Bay over the past decade. Additional locations of recent bank erosion were detected on the Kuskokwim River, from its upriver mouth past the city of Bethel. Riverbank erosion was also detected in northern Nushagak Bay, and extensive surface-wetting trends around wetlands and riverbanks were detected near the village of Togiak. Moreover, many villages on the west coast of Alaska and in the Kuskokwim River Delta have recently documented climate change case studies highlighting bank erosion, indicating that a variety of related ecological disturbances are ongoing across the region.

Imagery↗

Trends of Sediment Resuspension and Budget in Southern Lake Michigan Under Changing Wave Climate and Hydrodynamic Environment

Sediment suspension and transport driven by waves and currents play a significant role in both the ecological and physical environments of large lakes. Lake Michigan has faced a rapidly increasing water level associated with intensified wind waves in the past decade. To investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and associated coastal sediment budgets in southern Lake Michigan, a 30-year (1991–2020) hindcast was performed using a coupled wave-current-sediment model (SWAN-FVCOM-CSTMS). We found that in southern Lake Michigan, the basin-wide mean SSC increased, and the coastal sediment loss accelerated dramatically, corresponding with intensified waves, currents and lake water level rises over the past decade. The basin-wide mean SSC, coastal sediment loss, wave height, wind speed, current speed, and water level in southern Lake Michigan are highly correlated. Spatially, the results reveal decreases in coastal SSC and sediment loss in the western portion of the southern basin, while the eastern sectors show an increase in both metrics. This reflects a clear shift in the wave climate and hydrodynamic environment. The alterations in long-term coastal sediment budgets imply that considerable shoreline transformations are being influenced by modifications in the wave climate. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics of SSC and coastal sediment budgets is crucial for strategic water resource management and coastal infrastructure planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-Duration High-Resolution Large-Eddy Simulations of Hurricane Laura (2020) for Infrastructure Design

This dataset provides long-duration large-eddy simulations (LES) of Hurricane Laura (2020), capturing the turbulent boundary-layer wind field during the storm's passage at horizontal grid spacings of 55.55 m and 10 m. Hurricane Laura made landfall as a Category 4 storm in southwestern Louisiana at 06:00 UTC on 27 August 2020, producing widespread damage to coastal infrastructure. The simulations characterize the spatial and temporal variability of the turbulent wind at heights spanning the lowest 300 m of the boundary layer, throughout the approach and passage of the storm's eyewall over a fixed location. To resolve the spatial heterogeneity of wind and turbulence conditions across the storm, seven independent refined LES runs are performed at radial locations spanning the storm relative to its direction of motion. The refinement positions are defined on a normalized radial coordinate r ̂=r/R, where R≈21 km is Laura's radius of maximum wind, and lie between r ̂=-1.5 and r ̂=+1.5 in ∆r ̂=0.5 increments along a line perpendicular to the storm's track at the midpoint of the simulation. Negative r ̂ corresponds to locations south-southwest of the storm center and positive r ̂ to locations north-northeast. The dataset is segmented into seven radial refinement groups.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Automated Model for Improved Mapping of Country-Scale High-Resolution Coastal Bathymetry

Accurate and up-to-date maps of coastal bathymetry are critical for a variety of sectors from vessel navigation to port construction and are increasingly vital to inform coastal infrastructure management amid accelerating sea-level rise and more frequent and severe storm-surge events. The primary challenges to accurate and efficient bathymetric mapping from optical remote sensing are: accurately modeling light attenuation in both the atmosphere and water column; and inefficient data processing pipelines for highresolution satellite imagery. To address the effects of light attenuation within the water-column we have developed a novel physics-based bathymetry model that accounts for variations in water-column inherent optical properties on a pixel-by-pixel basis in optically-shallow aquatic environments, which represents a major advancement. For applications to satellite imagery, we have developed a software package that automatically applies the robust 6S atmospheric correction algorithm, estimates the bottom depth from the physics-based bathymetry model, which corrects for attenuation by suspended particulate matter and colored dissolved organic matter in the water column on a pixel-by-pixel basis, and leverages highperformance computing for rapid application to region-scale (e.g., CONUS) 2-meter resolution imagery datasets. Our approach is tailored to sensors that collect data at two-meter resolution with high return times for frequent updates. We mapped 591 WorldView satellite images for Florida, North Carolina, and Alaska and validated the maps against LiDAR-derived bathymetry data. Results show median RMSE of 1.75, 1.59, and 2.67 meters, respectively. By combining the strengths of Oak Ridge National Laboratory in high-performance computing and remote-sensing science with the water-column modeling expertise of Scripps Institution of Oceanography we advance the state of bathymetric mapping capability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3D Printing of Cement-Based Materials Using Seawater for Simulated Marine Environments

Global demand for adaptable and rapidly deployable construction solutions in offshore, coastal, and fluvial environments continues to rise, driven by pressing needs to develop energy platforms, improve coastal resilience, and support emergency response in the face of natural disasters. Increased investment in human-made coastal infrastructure, such as piers, support structures for power lines, offshore wind farms, and seawall protection systems, further underscores this trend. This study investigates the development of printable concrete mixtures for underwater environments using seawater as a replacement for freshwater, using a 3D printing syringe-based extrusion system. The effect of seawater addition and the printing medium (in air vs. underwater) was assessed via rheological and mechanical performance characterization. The results indicate rheological properties are favorable for seawater adoption by producing mixtures with higher yield stress and viscosity with the same levels of admixtures used for freshwater. Seawater-based mixtures demonstrated superior dimensional stability compared to freshwater counterparts, maintaining cross-sectional geometry, while compressive strength results showed no statistical differences between in-air and underwater samples. However, flexural strength was significantly influenced by geometry and printing medium. These findings establish critical rheological parameters for printable underwater mixtures and highlight the need for optimized curing strategies and layer bonding techniques to improve interfacial strength in underwater 3D printing applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Exploring Flooded Fraction Prediction through Machine Learning Models Focusing on Medical Infrastructure in the Southeast U.S. Coastal Areas

Rising sea levels due to climate change increasingly threaten medical infrastructure through flooding. This study develops machine learning models to predict flood exposure for 11,508 medical facilities in the southeastern coastal regions of the United States by integrating datasets including meteorological, hydrological, topographic, and geological data, the Natural Risk Index, and historical flood records from NASA, HIFLD, and FEMA. Six regression models, namely Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression, Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors, XGBoost, and Artificial Neural Networks, are trained using 16 explanatory variables identified through literature review and correlation analysis. Data preprocessing employs the SMOGN for class imbalance and Winsorization for outliers. Model performance is evaluated using MAE, MSE, and RMSE, with Random Forest and XGBoost models achieving the highest performance (MSE of 2.58e-5 and 3.69e-5, respectively). This multifactorial approach allows the models to capture complex flood-influencing relationships, enhancing adaptability and performance across geographic regions. Future work focuses on expanding across the U.S. and developing a near real-time flood monitoring system.

Jihoon Chung↗

Northern California and Southern Oregon Offshore Wind Transmission Study: Volume 1 (Revised)

Offshore wind (OSW) power based on floating technology in the coastal waters of the U.S. Pacific Ocean has great potential to contribute to climate mitigation and renewable energy goals in California, Oregon, and other parts of the western U.S. To achieve development of OSW at scale, investments in transmission infrastructure are needed to deliver this power to major metropolitan areas because these are the primary electricity load centers. Currently the transmission infrastructure serving coastal regions where OSW is most likely to be developed has limited capacity and is designed to bring power from the east to serve modest coastal loads. The development of OSW generation and the interconnection of this resource to the bulk power grid will require major investments in new transmission infrastructure and upgrades to existing infrastructure. This study investigated the development of up to 25.8 GW of OSW energy on the northern coast of California and the southern coast of Oregon. The focus of the study was to assess various transmission alternatives that could deliver OSW power to distant load centers while also providing energy benefits to rural coastal communities near to where OSW power may be developed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

VISUALIZING INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL COASTAL VARIABILITY NEAR VULNERABLE NASA INFRASTRUCTURE UTILIZING VIDEOS PRODUCED FROM REMOTELY SENSED DATA AT CAPE CANAVERAL, FL AND WALLOPS ISLAND, VA

Coastlines represent an interesting convolution of intense anthropogenic development superimposed onto morphologies that are among the most dynamic on the planet. Two of NASA’s critical facilities are particularly vulnerable to coastal change, Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral, FL and Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, VA. With continuing global sea level rise and increasing storminess coastal vulnerabilities at these facilities will only be exacerbated. These launch centers a subject to multiple coastal hazards including, flooding, episodic coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and coastal morphological changes. Although rapid change is readily observed during large storms or hurricanes, long term annual to decadal coastal change is much harder to visualize and conceptualize. The authors use videos developed from remotely sensed data to enhance conceptualization of coastal processes for planning and management stakeholders at these NASA facilities. Near or better than decadal coastal imagery has been available through high altitude photogrammetry efforts since the 1930’s. A significant amount of additional imagery was acquired through other federal, state, and local government agencies such as the USGS, NOAA, State DOT, and local Assessors Offices providing annual and inter annual images at spatial resolutions of 10cm – 1m. With the advent of GIS systems these images could be rectified and then layered to better understand change through time using a multitude of visual base shoreline proxies. With the increased awareness and use of video editing software the rectified images can be used to create videos. These videos can then be used to conceptualize a multitude of coastal processes including: performance of coastal restoration efforts, rapid change in sedimentation rates due to storms or other geomorphic processes, loss of protective barrier islands as sea level rises and lower sedimentation rates occur. The videos are also useful as a tool for verification and comparison to coastal models and provide an easy to understand educational resource for stakeholder engagement at these NASA centers, and other vulnerable coastal populations.

Richard A. MacKenzie III↗

Turbulence-Resolving Simulations of Hurricane Laura (2020): Insights Into Extreme Winds and Eyewall Turbulence

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to coastal and offshore energy infrastructure. In this work, we investigate the structure of mean winds and turbulence near the surface ( z < 300 m) that occurred during Hurricane Laura in 2020 on the US Gulf Coast. To this end, we perform turbulence-resolving simulations (..delta..x = 33.33 m) that encompass the entire eyewall of Hurricane Laura by introducing a novel method that we will refer to as Moving-Mesoscale to Static-LES Integrated Coupling (MOSAIC). The simulation results are validated against surface, boundary-layer, and mid-tropospheric observations. Our analysis of the extreme wind conditions near the surface indicates that the mean wind and turbulence profiles vary greatly at and near the eyewall, resulting in extreme values of mean wind speed (U > 50 m * s-1) and turbulence kinetic energy (k ~ 50 m2 * s-2) at altitudes above 50 m . To investigate in detail the nature of turbulence within the eyewall of the storm, we conduct higher-resolution simulations (..delta..x = 11.11 m) of a portion of the hurricane. We provide a comprehensive statistical description of turbulence in the eyewall region, highlighting the need to employ ..delta..x ~ 10 m grid spacing to capture the integral length-scales near the surface, second- and higher-order central moments (i.e., skewness and kurtosis), and spectral coherence in the flow accurately. These numerical simulations provide the most detailed description of mean winds and turbulent conditions within the eyewall of a historical tropical cyclone to date, illustrating how high-resolution simulations can enhance limited turbulence measurements in hurricanes and giving insight into the extreme conditions threatening offshore and coastal infrastructure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Probabilistic 21st and 22nd Century Sea-Level Projections at a Global Network of Tide-Gauge Sites

Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea-level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea-level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of “1-in-10” and “1-in-100” year events.

sea level↗