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10 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Limitations of Separate Cloud and Rain Categories in Parameterizing Collision-Coalescence for Bulk Microphysics Schemes

Warm rain collision-coalescence has been persistently difficult to parameterize in bulk microphysics schemes. We use a flexible bulk microphysics scheme with bin scheme process parameterizations, called AMP, to investigate reasons for the difficulty. AMP is configured in a variety of ways to mimic bulk schemes and is compared to simulations with the bin scheme upon which AMP is built. We find that an important limitation in traditional bulk schemes is the use of separate cloud and rain categories. When the drop size distribution is instead represented by a continuous distribution, the simulation of cloud-to-rain conversion is substantially improved. We also find large sensitivity to the threshold size to distinguish cloud and rain in traditional schemes; substantial improvement is found by decreasing the threshold from 40 to 25 μm. Neither the use of an assumed functional form for the size distribution nor the choice of predicted distribution moments has a large impact on the ability of AMP to simulate rain production. When predicting four total moments of the liquid drop size distribution, either with a traditional two-category, two-moment scheme with a reduced size threshold, or a four-moment single-category scheme, errors in the evolution of mass and the cloud size distribution are similar, but the single-category scheme has a substantially better representation of the rain size distribution. Optimal moment combinations for the single-category approach are investigated and appear to be linked more to the information content they provide for constraining the size distributions than to their correlation with collision-coalescence rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of Bulk Microphysics Scheme Structural Choices on Simulations of Rain Initiation Through Drop Coalescence

This study examines how different structural choices in bulk microphysics schemes impact the simulation of warm rain initiation. A single liquid category (SLC) approach prognosing up to four moments of a single drop size distribution (DSD) is compared to the traditional two-category, two-moment approach with separate DSDs for cloud and rain (four total prognostic variables). Different methods for calculating tendencies of the prognostic variables from drop collision-coalescence are also tested: a discretized numerical-integration approach, machine learning via neural networks, lookup tables, and traditional power law fits. Relative to simulations using a bin microphysics model, SLC gives smaller error overall than the two-category approach when numerical integration is used to calculate the collision-coalescence tendencies for both. Replacing the numerical integration with a pre-computed lookup table reduces computational cost with little loss of accuracy. However, using fitted power laws with SLC to represent the collision-coalescence tendencies substantially reduces accuracy and leads to an order of magnitude increase in error. It is also demonstrated that with SLC, reasonably accurate solutions are obtained using only three prognostic moments, while a two-moment SLC scheme leads to substantial error. Overall, both the choice of prognostic moments (e.g., SLC vs. two-category) and method to calculate the collision-coalescence tendencies are important to consider for minimizing errors in bulk schemes. SLC with a sufficiently detailed calculation of the collision-coalescence tendencies provides accurate solutions for a reasonable computational cost, providing a viable alternative to the traditional two-category, two-moment approach for bulk microphysics.

320 (cloud physics and chemistry)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Analysis of the Relative Dispersion of Droplet-Size Distributions and Their Relationships to Key Physical Fog Processes Under Different Aerosol Conditions and Evolutionary Stages

The relative dispersion of cloud and fog droplets has significant impacts on aerosol indirect effects, radiative transfer, and microphysical processes. However, previous studies have been mostly concerned with clouds, with limited studies on fog, particularly those that examine the combined influences of all key physical processes and their roles during fog evolution. As such, this study aims to conduct a comprehensive investigation by examining the relationships between relative dispersion and other microphysical variables, as well as the underlying microphysical and dynamic processes, based on field fog campaigns in polluted and clean conditions. In polluted fog, droplet concentrations are higher, leading to smaller droplets and increased dispersion. The correlation between dispersion and droplet volume-mean radius is positive in the polluted fog, but shifts to negative in clean fog. Here, we attribute the difference to various microphysical processes like aerosol activation, condensation, collision-coalescence, and entrainment-mixing. In polluted fog, high aerosol concentrations, low supersaturations, and strong turbulence (entrainment-mixing) provide suitable conditions for the simultaneous occurrence of droplet condensation and aerosol activation, resulting in a positive correlation between dispersion and volume-mean radius, especially during the fog formation stage. In contrast, during the mature stage in clean fog, condensation is dominant with weak aerosol activation leading to a negative correlation between relative dispersion and volume-mean radius. The collision-coalescence process is more active in the mature stage, increasing radii and leading to the negative correlation between dispersion and volume-mean radius. This result sheds new light on understanding the relative dispersion and mechanisms in fog under different aerosol backgrounds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observed and Bin Model Simulated Evolution of Drop Size Distributions in High-Based Cumulus Congestus Over the United Arab Emirates

This study examines microphysical processes in developing high-based cumulus congestus over the United Arab Emirates using aircraft observations and a large-eddy-simulation model with bin microphysics. A notable feature of this case is the lack of mm-sized drops despite having a liquid cloud layer >3.5 km deep, contrasting with copious large drops observed in maritime tropical cumulus congestus having a similar vertical extent. Modeled drop size distributions are similar to observations at various temperatures between 9.5 and –12°C, including the lack of mm-sized drops. Cloud dilution leads to low-to-moderate liquid water contents (~0.5–1.5 g m –3 ) in most of the cloud core, several times smaller than adiabatic values. Dilution is enhanced in the inflowing branch of the toroidal circulations associated with individual cloud thermals, which are favored regions for secondary droplet activation (activation above cloud base). Secondary activation in general contributes substantially to the droplet population. Turning it off leads to a sharp decrease in droplet concentration and increase in mean size aloft, but does little to increase rain drop production. Warm rain generation (or lack thereof) in this case is therefore determined more by the sub-cloud aerosol and the cloud base droplet size distribution (DSD) than DSD evolution aloft from secondary droplet activation. Decreasing the aerosol concentration by a factor of 10 greatly increases production of large drops via collision-coalescence. Thus, despite its high base (low temperatures) and substantial dilution, the simulated cloud is thermodynamically and dynamically capable of rapidly producing copious mm-sized drops from collision-coalescence under pristine aerosol conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dependence of Convective Cloud Microphysical Properties on Environmental Conditions during the TRACER and ESCAPE Field Campaigns: A Synergistic Approach of Observations, Machine Learning and Parcel Models

The sensitivity of convective clouds to aerosols and their interactions with environment, combined with limited observational constraints in parameterizations, introduces significant uncertainties in atmospheric models. Here, this study investigates the dependence of convective cloud microphysical properties on environmental conditions using a synergistic approach that combines unique observations from the TRACER and ESCAPE field campaigns, machine learning techniques, and parcel model simulations with a super-droplet microphysics scheme. A random forest algorithm identifies in-situ vertical velocity (w), temperature (T), and surface fine-mode aerosol mass concentration as the three most important environmental conditions influencing cloud properties including liquid water content (LWC), number concentration for particles with D max < 50 μm (N c ,<50), 50 μm ≤ D max ≤ 3000 μm (N c,50–3000 ), and droplet effective diameter (D e ). Results show that LWC, N c,<50 , and N c,50–3000 significantly increase with w in updrafts. Across w bins, as T decreases, LWC, D e , and N c,50–3000 increase, while N c,<50 decreases, which are closely linked to the distance above cloud bases. Warmer cloud bases yield higher LWC, greater N c,50–3000 , and smaller N c,<50 , while polluted environments produce greater N c,<50 . Parcel model simulations successfully replicate these observed dependencies. The simulation results indicate that warmer cloud bases enhance condensation generating larger droplets, and differences in droplet sizes are then amplified through collision-coalescence, resulting in a greater N c,50–3000 . Polluted conditions result in a greater N c,<50 primarily due to enhanced cloud condensation nuclei activation despite increased collision-coalescence rates compared to pristine conditions. This study provides observed quantitative patterns characterizing cloud microphysical properties as a function of key environmental parameters, offering valuable constraints for improving physics parameterizations and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Learning Droplet Collision Kernels: Proof of Concept Using “Cloudy,” a New n -Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme

The small-scale microphysical processes governing the formation of precipitation particles cannot be resolved explicitly by cloud resolving and climate models. Instead, they are represented by microphysics schemes that are based on a combination of theoretical knowledge, statistical assumptions, and fitting to data (“tuning”). Historically, tuning was done in an ad hoc fashion, leading to parameter choices that are not explainable or repeatable. Recent work has treated it as an inverse problem that can be solved by Bayesian inference. The posterior distribution of the parameters given the data—the solution of Bayesian inference—is found through computationally expensive sampling methods, which require over $\mathcal{O}$(10 5 ) evaluations of the forward model; this is prohibitive for many models. We present a proof of concept of Bayesian learning applied to a new bulk microphysics scheme named “Cloudy,” using the recently developed Calibrate-Emulate-Sample (CES) algorithm. Cloudy models collision-coalescence and collisional breakup of cloud droplets with an adjustable number of prognostic moments and with easily modifiable assumptions for the cloud droplet mass distribution and the collision kernel. The CES algorithm uses machine learning tools to accelerate Bayesian inference by reducing the number of forward evaluations needed to $\mathcal{O}$(10 2 ). It also exhibits a smoothing effect when forward evaluations are polluted by noise. In a suite of perfect-model experiments, we show that CES enables computationally efficient Bayesian inference of parameters in Cloudy from noisy observations of moments of the droplet mass distribution. In an additional imperfect-model experiment, a collision kernel parameter is successfully learned from output generated by a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spanning the Gap From Bulk to Bin: A Novel Spectral Microphysics Method

Microphysics methods for climate models and numerical weather prediction typically track one, two, or three moments of a droplet size distribution for various categories of liquid, ice, and aerosol. Such methods rely on conversion parameters between these categories, which introduces uncertainty into predictions. While higher-fidelity options such as bin and Lagrangian schemes exist, they require too many degrees of freedom for climate modeling applications and introduce numerical challenges. Here we introduce a flexible spectral microphysics method based on collocation of basis functions. This method generalizes to a linear bulk scheme when using few basis functions and to a smoothed bin scheme with more degrees of freedom. Tested in an idealized box setting, the method improves spectral accuracy for droplet collision-coalescence and may eliminate the need for precipitation autoconversion rates required by bulk methods; furthermore, it generalizes well to multimodal distributions with less complexity than a bin method. The potential to extend this collocation representation to multiple hydrometeor classes suggests a path forward to unify liquid, ice, and aerosol microphysics in a single, flexible, computational framework for climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Drop clustering and drop size correlations from holographic imagery suggest cloud droplet spectral broadening via entrainment-mixing

The question of how droplets rapidly grow large enough to initiate collision-coalescence has persisted for decades. Many theories explaining the production of sufficiently large drops (i.e., those in the “bottleneck” size range; ∼ 25–50 µm diameters) involve drop clustering on millimeter scales. A novel method is introduced to evaluate drop clustering trends particle-by-particle (i.e., the number/proximity of neighboring drops for given droplets; defined as drop clustering fields) which are diagnosed relative to drops within their shared drop environments – in contrast to previous studies which diagnose drop clustering of defined sample volumes, or in terms of absolute length scales. Specifically, this study evaluates the statistical likelihood that drops of a given size are associated with either a significant number of neighboring drops, or are significantly isolated from neighboring drops. Observations are acquired from the HOLODEC during the Cloud System Evolution in the Trades campaign, which sampled subtropical marine clouds. The HOLODEC measures drop size distributions and the 3D spatial coordinates of droplets. Results show drops within the bottleneck size range (diameters of ∼ 25–50 µm) are most likely to be significantly isolated from neighboring drops. This “isolated large drop trend” is primarily observed at subsaturated conditions, suggesting entrainment is the contributing factor. Holograms associated with this trend are more likely to have broader drop size distributions, larger maximum drop sizes and overly regions where precipitation reaches the lowest altitudes from the sampled cloud, suggesting entrainment-mixing drop size distribution broadening is a relevant precipitation-initiation mechanism.

D'Alessandro, John J. [Univ. of Washington, Seattl↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

Abstract Representing cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗