Planetary Defense: Asteroids, Comets, Impact Craters, and Outwitting the Dinosaurs
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This paper describes two aspects to the comet and asteroid hazard problem.
New calculations of the collision probabilities of asteroids and comets with Venus were carried out based on the orbits of the known Venus-crossing asteroids and comets. For comparison, asteroid and comet collision probabilities and cratering rates on the Earth and Moon were recalculated and the estimated cratering rates on Venus were normalized to those of the Earth.
The extinction mechanisms proposed at the Cretaceous-Tertiary geological boundary are reviewed and related to the impact of asteroids or comets in general. For impact energies below 10(exp 4) Megatons (less than 6 x 10(exp 4) years; asteroid diameter less than 650 m), blast, earthquake, and fire may destroy local areas up to 10(exp 5) square m. Tidal waves could flood a kilometer inland over entire ocean basins. The energy range from 105 to 106 Megatons (less than 2 x 10(exp 6) years; asteroid diameter less than 3 km) is transitional. Dust lifted, sulfur released from within impacting asteroids, and soot from fires started by comets can produce climatologically significant optical depths of 10. At energies beyond 10(exp 7) Megatons, blast and earthquake damage is regional (10(exp 6) square cm). Tsunami cresting to 100 m and flooding 20 km inland will sweep the coastal zones of the world's oceans. Fires will be set globally. Light levels may drop so low from the smoke, dust and sulfate that vision is not possible. At energies approaching 10(exp 9) Megatons the ocean surface waters may be acidified by sulfur. The combination of these effects would be devastating.
A research program on the Manson impact structure has substantially improved our knowledge of the detailed features of this eroded crater. As part of our structural studies, we have derived a value of 21 km for the diameter of the final transient cavity formed during crater excavation. With this information, we can estimate the energy of formation of the Manson crater and the possible size of the impacting asteroid or comet. In addition, we have estimated the near- and far-field ejecta volumes and masses.
Hypothesis on tektite origin by comet impact with earth
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Impacting at hypervelocity, an asteroid struck the Earth approximately 65 million years ago in the Yucatan Peninsula area. This triggered the extinction of almost 70% of the species of life on Earth including the dinosaurs. Other impacts prior to this one have caused even greater extinctions. Preventing collisions with the Earth by hypervelocity asteroids, meteoroids, and comets is the most important immediate space challenge facing human civilization. This is the Impact Imperative. We now believe that while there are about 2000 earth orbit crossing rocks greater than 1 kilometer in diameter, there may be as many as 200,000 or more objects in the 100 m size range, Can anything be done about this fundamental existence question facing our civilization? The answer is a resounding yes! By using an intelligent combination of Earth and space based sensors coupled with an infra-structure of high-energy laser stations and other secondary mitigation options, we can deflect inbound asteroids, meteoroids, and comets and prevent them from striking the Earth.
We characterized the impact physics in collisions on porous bodies by various density projectiles and defined different penetration modes (compression, spreading, or breakup) based on transitions between instability regimes. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.
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The Deep Impact Spacecraft mission was the first to boldly face the challenge of impacting the surface of a comet, 9P/Tempel 1, to investigate surface and subsurface 'pristine' materials. The Stardust mission to Comet 81P/Wild 2 brought back an exciting surprise: shocked minerals which were likely altered during the comet's lifetime. Signatures of shock in meteorites also suggest that the violent past of the solar system has left our small bodies with signatures of impacts and collisions. These results have led to the question: How have impacts affected the evolutionary path taken by comets and asteroids, and what signatures can be observed? A future planetary mission to a near-Earth asteroid is proposing to take the next steps toward understanding small bodies through impacts. The mission would combine an ESA led AIM (Asteroid Impact Mission) with a JHU/APL led DART (Double Asteroid Redirect Mission) spacecraft to rendezvous with binary near-Earth asteroid 65803 Didymus (1996 G2). DART would impact the smaller asteroid, 'Didymoon' while AIM would characterize the impact and the larger Didymus asteroid. With these missions in mind, a suite of experiments have been conducted at the Experimental Impact Laboratory (EIL) at NASA Johnson Space Center to investigate the effects that collisions may have on comets and asteroids. With the new capability of the vertical gun to cool targets in the chamber through the use of a cold jacket fed by liquid nitrogen, the effects of target temperature have been the focus of recent studies. Mg-rich forsterite and enstatite (orthopyroxene), diopside (monoclinic pyroxene) and magnesite (Mg-rich carbonate) were impacted. Target temperatures ranged from 25 deg to -100 deg, monitored by connecting thermocouples to the target container. Impacted targets were analyzed with a Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer (FTIR) and Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM). Here we present the evidence for impact-induced shock in the minerals through both spectra and TEM imaging and compare with unshocked samples.
Comets and asteroids have weathered dynamic histories, as evidenced by their rough surfaces. The Nice model describes a violent reshuffling of small bodies during the Late Heavy Bombardment, with collisions acting to grind these planetesimals away. This creates an additional source of impact material that can re-work the surfaces of the larger bodies over the lifetime of the solar system. Here, we investigate the possibility that signatures due to impacts (e.g. from micrometeoroids or meteoroids) could be detected in their spectra, and how that can be explained by the physical manifestation of shock in the crystalline structure of minerals. All impact experiments were conducted in the Johnson Space Center Experimental Impact Laboratory using the vertical gun. Impact speeds ranged from approx.2.0 km/s to approx.2.8 km/s. All experiments were conducted at room temperature. Minerals found in comets and asteroids were chosen as targets, including diopside (MgCaSi2O6, monoclinic pyroxene), magnesite (MgCO3, carbonate), and fayalite (FeSiO4, olivine). Impacted samples were analyzed using a Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer (FTIR) and a Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM). Absorbance features in the 8-13 m spectral region demonstrate relative amplitude changes as well as wavelength shifts. Corresponding TEM images exhibit planar shock dislocations in the crystalline structure, attributed to deformation at high strain and low temperatures. Elongating or shortening the axes of the crystalline structure of forsterite (Mg2SiO4, olivine) using a discrete dipole approximation model (Lindsay et al., submitted) yields changes in spectral features similar to those observed in our impacted laboratory minerals.
We review the major mechanisms proposed to cause extinctions at the Cretaceous-Tertiary geological boundary following an asteroid impact. We then discuss how the proposed extinction may relate to the impact of asteroids or comets in general. We discuss the limitations of these mechanisms in terms of the spatial scale that may be affected, and the time scale over which the effects may last. Our goal is to provide relatively simple prescriptions for evaluating the importance of colliding objects having a range of energies and compositions. We also identify the many uncertainties concerning the environmental effects of impacts. We conclude that, for impact energies below about 10(exp 4) Mts (megatons of TNT equivalent) - i.e., impact frequencies less than in 6 x 10(exp 4) yr, corresponding to comets and asteroids with diameters smaller than about 400 m and 650 m, respectively - blast damage, earthquakes, and fires should be important on a scale of 10(exp 4) or 10(exp 5) km (exp 2), which corresponds to the area damaged in many natural disasters of recent history. However, tsunami could be more damaging, flooding a kilometer of coastal plane over entire ocean basins. In the energy range of 10(exp 4) to 10 (exp 5) Mts (intervals up to 3 x 10(exp 5) yr; comets and asteroids with sizes up to 800 m and 1.5 km, respectively) water vapor injections and ozone loss become significant on the global scale. In the submicrometer dust injection fraction from the pulverized target material is much higher than is presently thought to be most likely, then dust injection could be important in this energy range.
Comets and asteroids have endured impacts from other solar system bodies that result in outcomes ranging from catastrophic collisions to regolith evolution due to micrometeorid bombardment of the surface ices and refactory components. Experiments designed to better understand these relics of solar system formation have been conducted on Earth in a laboratory setting, as well as in space through, e.g., the Deep Impact Mission to Comet Tempel 1. Deep Impact fired a high-speed impactor into the roughly 6 km nucleus of the comet. The ejecta plume generated by the impact was studied by both spacecraft instrumentation and groundbased telescopes.
In recent times one of the most intriguing mysteries of geology bas been the occurrence of aerodynamically-shaped glasses on five continents of the earth. These glasses under discussion are obviously not of fulgurite origin. Recent research indicates that these glasses known as tektites are ~he result of meteorite, asteroid, or possibly comet impact. Impact glasses, in general, differ from volcanic glasses in that they are lower in water content, have lower gallium and germanium contents, and are not necessarily in magmatically unstable continental areas.
The fragmentation of a small asteroid in the atmosphere greatly increases its cross sections for aerodynamic braking and energy dissipation. At a typical impact velocity of 22 km/s, the atmosphere absorbs more than half the kinetic energy of stony meteoroids with diameters, D(sub m), less than 220 m and iron meteoroids with D(sub m) less than 80 m. The corresponding diameter for comets with impact velocity 50 km/s is D(sub m) less than 1600 m. Most of the atmospheric energy dissipation occurs in a fraction of a scale height, so large meteors appear to 'explode' or 'flare' at the end of their visible paths. This dissipation of energy in the atmosphere protects the earth from direct impact damage (e.g., craters), but it produces a blast wave that can do considerable damage. The area of destruction around the impact point in which the over-pressure in the blast wave exceeds 4 lb/sq in = 2.8 x 10(exp 5) dynes/cu cm, which is enough to knock over trees and destroy buildings, increases rapidly from zero for chondritic meteoroids less than 56 m in diameter (15 megatons) to about 200 sq km for those 80 m in diameter (48 megatons); the probable diameter of the tunguska impactor of 1908 is about 80 m. Crater formation and earthquakes are not significant in land impacts by stony asteroids less than about 200 m in diameter because of the air protection. A tsunami is probably the most devastating type of damage for asteroids 200 m to 1 km in diameter. An impact by an asteroid this size anywhere in the Atlantic would devastate coastal areas on both sides of the ocean. An asteroid a few kilometers across would produce a tsunami that would reach the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains in the upper half of the East Coast of the United States. Most of Florida is protected from a tsunami by the gradual slope of the ocean off its coast, which causes most of the tsunami energy to be reflected back into the Atlantic. The atmosphere plume produced by asteroids with diameters exceeding about 120 m cannot be contained by the atmosphere, so this bubble of high-temperature gas forms a new layer on top of the atmosphere. The dust entrapped in this hot gas is likely to have optical depths exceeding tau = 10 for asteroids with diameters exceeding about 0.5 to 1 km. The optical flux from asteroids 60 m or more in diameter is enough to ignite pine forests. However, the blast wave from an impacting asteroid goes beyond the radius in which the fire starts. The blast wave tends to blow out the fire, so it is likely that the impact will char the forest, as at Tunguska, but the impact will not produce a sustained fire. Because comets dissipate their energy much higher in the atmosphere than asteroids, they illuminate a much larger region and their blast wave is weaker. So they are much more effective in producing large fires. This suggests that the KT impactor was a comet rather than an asteroid.
Finite difference calculations describing the impact mechanics associated with a 10 to 30 km diameter silicate or water object impacting a 5 km deep ocean overlying a silicate solid planet demonstrate that from 12 to 15% of the bolide energy resides in the water. It is speculated that minimal global tsunami run-up heights on the continents would be 300-400 meters, and that such waves would inundate all low altitude continental areas, and strip and silt-over virtually all vegetation. As a result the terrestrial animal food chain would be seriously perturbed. This could in turn cause extinction of large terrestrial animals.
Throughout the lifetime of the solar system, collisions between small bodies and impacts on the surfaces of small bodies in the Kuiper Belt have occured at speeds of 1.5 - 3 km s-1 (Stern, Astron J 124, 2002), typically at 1-10 km s-1 between Trojan asteroids (Marzari et al. Icarus 119, 1996), and at ~4-8 km s-1 in the asteroid belt (Farinella and Davis, Icarus 97, 1992). Shock effects recorded by minerals composing these bodies are one observable legacy of this evolutionary process, whether they were generated through large collisions, micrometeoroid impacts, or processing during the formation of the solar system. Shock metamorphism has been observed in cometary samples such as those from Comet Wild 2 (Keller et al. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 72, 2008; Tomeoka et al. MAPS 43, 2008; Jacobs et al. MAPS 44, 2009) as well as in forsterites and enstatites found in meteorites (McCausland et al. AGU, 2010). To investigate the observable signatures of these processes, we have conducted a suite of impact experiments at NASA Johnson Space Center's Experimental Impact Laboratory (EIL). Target materials included Mg-rich forsterite (olivine), Mg-rich enstatite (orthopyroxene), and antigorite and lizardite (both in the serpentine group of phyllosilicates). Alumina-ceramic spheres were launched at speeds ranging from ~2.0 - 2.6 km s-1 into targets at temperatures from 25degC to -100degC. Recent advancements have been made in cooling targets in the EIL's vertical gun. Liquid nitrogen (LN2) is fed through a unique jacket surrounding the metallic sample container to chill the samples. Real-time values from temperature sensors attached to the sample holder are converted to target temperature through predetermined regression relationships, providing the target temperature at the time of impact with sub-degree accuracy. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometer (FTIR) data in the near to mid-IR will be presented, along with trends relating temperature and velocity with impact speeds, and thereby peak shock stresses experienced by the impacted minerals.