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A market-oriented database design for critical material research

Material databases are important tools to provide and store information from material research. Rising concerns about supply-chain risks to raw materials presents a need to incorporate raw-material market and end-use application data, beyond basic chemical and physical properties, into a material database. One key challenge for researchers working on critical materials is information scarcity and inconsistency. This paper introduces, as a result of a two-year project, a critical-material commodity database (CMCD) incorporated with a low-code web-based platform that allows easy access for users and simple updates for the authors. The main goal of this project was to educate material scientists on the applications having the most impact on the supply chain and current industrial specifications/markets for each application. The objective was to provide material researchers with harmonized information so that they could gain a better understanding of the market, focus their technologies on an application with a high potential for commercialization, and better contribute to supply-chain risk reduction. While the goal was met with high receptivity, several limitations stemmed from query design, distribution platform, and quality of data source. To overcome some of these limitations and expand on CMCD's potential, we are building a public webpage with an improved interface, better data organization, and higher extensibility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chemical Recommender System: Replacement Suggestions for Small Molecules

The Chemical Recommender System (CRS) is an open-source, high-performance toolkit that enables real-time similarity searches across the complete PubChem database (over 50 million molecules) using commodity hardware. The CRS addresses critical limitations in existing chemical informatics platforms through a novel vector database infrastructure, extensible model integration capabilities, and complete algorithmic transparency. The system implements a vector database deployment with partitioned indexing that achieves a ~60x speedup over traditional approaches. A containerized model integration framework allows researchers to seamlessly incorporate custom predictive models into the full-scale search and scoring pipeline, while complete configurability of search parameters, filtering logic, and scoring functions provides capabilities not available in existing black-box solutions. Beyond structural similarity, the CRS integrates OPERA QSAR models for thermophysical and toxicity predictions, RDKit synthetic accessibility scoring, and user-defined models to compute weighted final replacement scores. The complete system is accessible through an interactive web application supporting real-time progress monitoring, post-processing score re-weighting, automated PDF reporting, and batch processing capabilities.

Nair, Parthiv Anand [Sandia National Laboratories ↗

Freight Analysis Framework Version 5 (FAF5) Base Year 2017 Data Development Technical Report

The Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) integrates data from a variety of sources to create a comprehensive national picture of freight movements among states and major metropolitan areas by all modes of transportation. The latest of this data series is FAF5, which is the fifth generation FAF and is benchmarked on Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) 2017. Except for FAF1 that provided estimates for truck, rail, and water tonnage for calendar year 1998, later generations of FAF (FAF2 through FAF5) were built based on their benchmark year CFS data, for 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2017 respectively. The FAF is produced under a partnership between Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) and Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). As a major data product of the FAF program, the FAF regional database provides a national picture of freight flows to, from, and within the United States (among regions and states), by commodity and mode for the base year, as well as for forecasts up to 30 years into the future in a 5-year interval. Additional FAF data products also include FAF network flows database, where truck movements are routed onto the national highway network, estimates of annual projections, and synchronized historical data series. This report is a technical document prepared to describe the data sources and methodologies applied in the process of building the FAF5 base-year 2017 regional database, released as FAF5.0 in February 2021. This report offers a description of the diverse data sources and modeling methods used in constructing the base year FAF5 regional database. The FAF5 base-year database is used as the base for development of forecasts and for assignment of truck flows on highway network. Similarly, the FAF5 base-year database will be used as the base to generate FAF5 annual estimates. In addition to this report, users are encouraged to refer to the FAF5 User’s Guide, which provides basic information of the data, including definitions of the data attributes, information on how to access the data and tool, as well as detailed data dictionary and code tables.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Lessons Learned From Developing Three Generations of Remote Sensing Science Data Processing Systems

The Biospheric Information Systems Branch at NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center has developed three generations of Science Investigator-led Processing Systems for use with various remote sensing instruments. The first system is used for data from the MODIS instruments flown on NASA s Earth Observing Systems @OS) Terra and Aqua Spacecraft launched in 1999 and 2002 respectively. The second generation is for the Ozone Measuring Instrument flying on the EOS Aura spacecraft launched in 2004. We are now developing a third generation of the system for evaluation science data processing for the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) to be flown by the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) in 2006. The initial system was based on large scale proprietary hardware, operating and database systems. The current OMI system and the OMPS system being developed are based on commodity hardware, the LINUX Operating System and on PostgreSQL, an Open Source RDBMS. The new system distributes its data archive across multiple server hosts and processes jobs on multiple processor boxes. We have created several instances of this system, including one for operational processing, one for testing and reprocessing and one for applications development and scientific analysis. Prior to receiving the first data from OMI we applied the system to reprocessing information from the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instruments flown from 1978 until now. The system was able to process 25 years (108,000 orbits) of data and produce 800,000 files (400 GiB) of level 2 and level 3 products in less than a week. We will describe the lessons we have learned and tradeoffs between system design, hardware, operating systems, operational staffing, user support and operational procedures. During each generational phase, the system has become more generic and reusable. While the system is not currently shrink wrapped we believe it is to the point where it could be readily adopted, with substantial cost savings, for other similar tasks.

Tilmes, Curt↗

The Development of Two Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS) for NASA's Earth Observation System (EOS)

In 2001, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics started the construction of a science Investigator-led Processing System (SIPS) for processing data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) which will launch on the Aura platform in mid 2004. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) is a contribution of the Netherlands Agency for Aerospace Programs (NIVR) in collaboration with the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) to the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura mission. It will continue the Total Ozone Monitoring System (TOMS) record for total ozone and other atmospheric parameters related to ozone chemistry and climate. OMI measurements will be highly synergistic with the other instruments on the EOS Aura platform. The LTP previously developed the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Data Processing System (MODAPS), which has been in full operations since the launches of the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts in December, 1999 and May, 2002 respectively. During that time, it has continually evolved to better support the needs of the MODIS team. We now run multiple instances of the system managing faster than real time reprocessings of the data as well as continuing forward processing. The new OMI Data Processing System (OMIDAPS) was adapted from the MODAPS. It will ingest raw data from the satellite ground station and process it to produce calibrated, geolocated higher level data products. These data products will be transmitted to the Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center (GDAAC) instance of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS) for long term archive and distribution to the public. The OMIDAPS will also provide data distribution to the OMI Science Team for quality assessment, algorithm improvement, calibration, etc. We have taken advantage of lessons learned from the MODIS experience and software already developed for MODIS. We made some changes in the hardware system organization, database and software to adapt the system for OMI. We replaced the fundamental database system, Sybase, with an Open Source RDBMS called PostgreSQL, and based the entire OMIDAPS on a cluster of Linux based commodity computers rather than the large SGI servers that MODAPS uses. Rather than relying on a central I/O server host, the new system distributes its data archive among multiple server hosts in the cluster. OMI is also customizing the graphical user interfaces and reporting structure to more closely meet the needs of the OMI Science Team. Prior to 2003, simulated OMI data and the science algorithms were not ready for production testing. We initially constructed a prototype system and tested using a 25 year dataset of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument (SBUV) data. This prototype system provided a platform to support the adaptation of the algorithms for OMI, and provided reprocessing of the historical data aiding in its analysis. In a recent reanalysis of the TOMS data, the OMIDAPS processed 108,000 full orbits of data through 4 processing steps per orbit, producing about 800,000 files (400 GiB) of level 2 and greater data files. More recently we have installed two instances of the OMIDAPS for integration and testing of OM1 science processes as they get delivered from the Science Team. A Test instance of the OMIDAPS has also supported a series of "Interface Confidence Tests" (ICTs) and End-to-End Ground System tests to ensure the launch readiness of the system. This paper will discuss the high-level hardware, software, and database organization of the OMIDAPS and how it builds on the MODAPS heritage system. It will also provide an overview of the testing and implementation of the production OMIDAPS.

Tilmes, Curt↗

Estimating energy consumption and GHG emissions in the U.S. food supply chain for net-zero

This work provides a database of the U.S. food system’s energy consumption and GHG emissions at the national and state levels by food supply chain (FSC) stage, fuel type, and food commodity. We estimate that the U.S. FSC consumed a total 4660 TBTU (4900 PJ) of site energy, 7130 TBTU (7500 PJ) of primary energy, and generated 970 MMT of GHG emissions in 2016. Among all the stages, on-farm production is the largest energy consumer (31% primary energy) and GHG emissions contributor (70%), largely due to raising animals. Optimizing distribution can reduce the stage’s energy consumption and GHG emissions and increase products’ shelf-life. Reducing food loss and waste is another good option, as it decreases the amount of food necessary to grow, thus impacting the overall FSC. The database can help stakeholders identify stage- and region-specific strategies and measures to curtail the environmental footprint of the U.S. food system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Low-Cost Clustered Archive Approach for Storing Remote Sensing Data

As part of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) Data Processing System (MODAPS) is now processing data from two instruments on the EOS flag ship spacecraft Terra and Aqua. Between the two, MODAPS is generating over 1 Terrabyte of data per day and has surpassed 3 Petabytes of total data. The bulk of the data is stored near-line in StorageTek Powerhorn tape jukeboxes. Accessing data that has been moved to tape involves submitting an order, scheduling the tape, and waiting for the data to become available. I am developing a low cost clustered archive that could enable storing a very large amount of data such as the MODIS data described above in an organized fashion on a cluster of commodity hardware using low cost SATA hard drives such that the files are directly available online. The system takes full advantage of Open Source software, using the GNULinux operating system, PostgreSQL relational database and the Apache HTTP Server. This poster session will depict my approach, the interface to the archive, a brief discussion of the internals of the system and some performance numbers from my prototyping. I will also describe various costs and benefits of this approach versus the traditional large tape jukebox approach currently in use in the EOSDIS.

Tilmes, Curt↗

Data Fusion for the Development of a Multimodal Freight Transload Facilities Dataset in the U.S.

To withstand the growing demand of commodity volume and its strain on the transportation infrastructure, it is necessary to identify the flow of commodities by route and mode. However, a national multimodal freight routing model does not exist for the U.S. The development of such model requires multiple building blocks, such as virtual representations of roadway, railway, and waterway networks, transload facilities (TFs), and access/egress links. Most of these blocks have a robust database in the U.S., except for the TFs. Here, this paper presents the fusion of dispersed and heterogeneous representations of multimodal TFs into a single, comprehensive, geospatial freight TF dataset. The TF dataset is derived from several sources, including the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Master Docks Plus, the National Transportation Atlas Database, the Intermodal Association of North America, industry publications, and other public information. First, individual datasets were queried and reconciled. A geocoding/reverse geocoding process was applied to get the best street address and latitude/longitude location for each terminal. Then, duplicate terminals were identified by a fuzzy match algorithm based on terminal name and location, and removed. Validation was performed by visual inspection of random facilities. The main contributions of this work are: a publicly available version of the TF dataset, including facility location and multimodal transfer capability of 9,003 facilities, and an enterprise-version with the same facilities but including commodity handling capabilities. The main purpose of developing the TF dataset is to inform multimodal routing algorithms. The proposed TF dataset allows for credibly modeling the multimodal transfer of commodities within shipment routes.

Commodity Routing↗

Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development for the National Institute of Standards And Technology (NIST) Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) Neutral Environmental Software Tool (NEST)

For this analysis, regionalized life cycle assessment (LCA) results for environmental impacts (using the Tool for Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts [TRACI] 2.1) and cumulative energy demand (using the Federal Life Cycle Analysis Commons Elementary Flow List [FEDEFL] Inventory Methods v1.0.0) were evaluated for the production and utilization of electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane as commodities within residential and commercial buildings. These results can used as a framework for future research into net zero, high-performance buildings, such as done here for the Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) database by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Engineering Laboratory. The geographical results were assigned to each United States (U.S.) Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code based on the ZIP code location and corresponding Balancing Authority Area, natural gas basin, and Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). Additionally, previously developed models were utilized to develop future life cycle profiles. Projections were based on data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022 through 2050 (AEO 2022). Electricity LCA models were updated based on AEO 2022 projected annual generation mixes, while the natural gas baseline model was updated based on projected shares of natural gas types (conventional, shale, tight, and coalbed methane). Projections of crude oil production rates and export rates were applied to the petroleum baseline model in five-year increments to investigate their effects on the life cycle profile of fuel oil and propane. While only 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) with climate carbon feedback (CC-FB) and Cumulative Energy Demand are shown in Section 4: Results, the complete results, including Acidification Potential, Eutrophication Potential, Freshwater Ecotoxicity Potential, GWP-100 without inclusion of CC-FB, Human Health Impacts Potentials (Cancer, Non-Cancer), Ozone Depletion Potential, Particulate Matter Formation Potential, and Photochemical Smog Formation Potential, are tabulated for each ZIP code in the Excel worksheets that accompany this analysis. For the Excel spreadsheet tools associated with this report, please go to https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f8890fac-be55-44ac-aaa9-e2888bfabe93

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗

From Oxygen Generation to Metals Production: In Situ Resource Utilization by Molten Oxide Electrolysis

For the exploration of other bodies in the solar system, electrochemical processing is arguably the most versatile technology for conversion of local resources into usable commodities: by electrolysis one can, in principle, produce (1) breathable oxygen, (2) silicon for the fabrication of solar cells, (3) various reactive metals for use as electrodes in advanced storage batteries, and (4) structural metals such as steel and aluminum. Even so, to date there has been no sustained effort to develop such processes, in part due to the inadequacy of the database. The objective here is to identify chemistries capable of sustaining molten oxide electrolysis in the cited applications and to examine the behavior of laboratory-scale cells designed to generate oxygen and to produce metal. The basic research includes the study of the underlying high-temperature physical chemistry of oxide melts representative of lunar regolith and of Martian soil. To move beyond empirical approaches to process development, the thermodynamic and transport properties of oxide melts are being studied to help set the limits of composition and temperature for the processing trials conducted in laboratory-scale electrolysis cells. The goal of this investigation is to deliver a working prototype cell that can use lunar regolith and Martian soil to produce breathable oxygen along with metal by-product. Additionally, the process can be generalized to permit adaptation to accommodate different feedstock chemistries, such as those that will be encountered on other bodies in the solar system. The expected results of this research include: (1) the identification of appropriate electrolyte chemistries; (2) the selection of candidate anode and cathode materials compatible with electrolytes named above; and (3) performance data from a laboratory-scale cell producing oxygen and metal. On the strength of these results it should be possible to assess the technical viability of molten oxide electrolysis for in situ resource utilization on the Moon and Mars. In parallel, there may be commercial applications here on earth, such as new green technologies for metals extraction and for treatment of hazardous waste, e.g., fixing heavy metals.

Khetpal, Deepak↗

Transitioning to Intel-based Linux Servers in the Payload Operations Integration Center

The MSFC Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC) is the focal point for International Space Station (ISS) payload operations. The POIC contains the facilities, hardware, software and communication interface necessary to support payload operations. ISS ground system support for processing and display of real-time spacecraft and telemetry and command data has been operational for several years. The hardware components were reaching end of life and vendor costs were increasing while ISS budgets were becoming severely constrained. Therefore it has been necessary to migrate the Unix portions of our ground systems to commodity priced Intel-based Linux servers. hardware architecture including networks, data storage, and highly available resources. This paper will concentrate on the Linux migration implementation for the software portion of our ground system. The migration began with 3.5 million lines of code running on Unix platforms with separate servers for telemetry, command, Payload information management systems, web, system control, remote server interface and databases. The Intel-based system is scheduled to be available for initial operational use by August 2004 The overall migration to Intel-based Linux servers in the control center involves changes to the This paper will address the Linux migration study approach including the proof of concept, criticality of customer buy-in and importance of beginning with POSlX compliant code. It will focus on the development approach explaining the software lifecycle. Other aspects of development will be covered including phased implementation, interim milestones and metrics measurements and reporting mechanisms. This paper will also address the testing approach covering all levels of testing including development, development integration, IV&V, user beta testing and acceptance testing. Test results including performance numbers compared with Unix servers will be included. need for a smooth transition while maintaining real-time support. An important aspect of the paper will involve challenges and lessons learned. product compatibility, implications of phasing decisions and tracking of dependencies, particularly non- software dependencies. The paper will also discuss scheduling challenges providing real-time flight support during the migration and the requirement to incorporate in the migration changes being made simultaneously for flight support. This paper will also address the deployment approach including user involvement in testing and the , This includes COTS product compatibility, implications of phasing decisions and tracking of dependencies, particularly non- software dependencies. The paper will also discuss scheduling challenges providing real-time flight support during the migration and the requirement to incorporate in the migration changes being made simultaneously for flight support.

Guillebeau, P. L.↗

Quillinan, et al 2018 DOE Geothermal Technology Office REE Report for NEWTS Database and Case Studies

Produced water data processed into the NEWTS data format for easy input into aqueous chemistry modeling software, including oil & gas and coal bed methane produced waters, and geothermal waters. Includes information on rare earth elements (REEs) and critical minerals (CMs). Case studies are included to demonstrate solved streams using aqueous chemistry software. An input template is provided for modeling stream data in OLI Studio. Original data from: Quillinan, Scott, Nye, Charles, Engle, Mark, Bartos, Timothy T., Neupane, Ghanashyam, Brant, Jonathan, Bagdonas, Davin, McLing, Travis, McLaughlin, J. Fred, Phillips, Erin, Hallberg, Laura L., Shahabadi, Mahdi, and Johnson, Matthew. Assessing rare earth element concentrations in geothermal and oil and gas produced waters: A potential domestic source of strategic mineral commodities (Final Report). United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.2172/1509037.

Aqueous Chemistry↗

The Open Data Repositorys Data Publisher

Data management and data publication are becoming increasingly important components of researcher's workflows. The complexity of managing data, publishing data online, and archiving data has not decreased significantly even as computing access and power has greatly increased. The Open Data Repository's Data Publisher software strives to make data archiving, management, and publication a standard part of a researcher's workflow using simple, web-based tools and commodity server hardware. The publication engine allows for uploading, searching, and display of data with graphing capabilities and downloadable files. Access is controlled through a robust permissions system that can control publication at the field level and can be granted to the general public or protected so that only registered users at various permission levels receive access. Data Publisher also allows researchers to subscribe to meta-data standards through a plugin system, embargo data publication at their discretion, and collaborate with other researchers through various levels of data sharing. As the software matures, semantic data standards will be implemented to facilitate machine reading of data and each database will provide a REST application programming interface for programmatic access. Additionally, a citation system will allow snapshots of any data set to be archived and cited for publication while the data itself can remain living and continuously evolve beyond the snapshot date. The software runs on a traditional LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP) server and is available on GitHub (http://github.com/opendatarepository) under a GPLv2 open source license. The goal of the Open Data Repository is to lower the cost and training barrier to entry so that any researcher can easily publish their data and ensure it is archived for posterity.

Astrobiology data↗

Flow Testing of Corrugated Metal Flexhoses to Evaluate Flow-Induced Vibration and Stiffness

Corrugated metal flexhoses are used to supply fluid routing where straight rigid pipes cannot meet the design requirements due to vibrations, thermal expansion, or motion. These types of hoses are found in a wide range of applications at KSC (Exploration Ground Systems Program in particular) with various fluid commodities such as fuel, oxidizers, coolant, and cryogenics. However, flexibility of design comes at a price: due to increased levels of turbulence generated by the hose geometry, the necessary supply pressure must increase to achieve the same flow rate. Furthermore, the convolutes of the flexhoses interact with the flow field to generate areas of flow separation which leads to a phenomenon known as vortex shedding. When the frequency of vortex shedding couples with the natural frequency of the hose, this can be detrimental and cause premature failure. There are a limited amount of software that can correctly model the coupled fluid structure interactions(FSI) between the solid and fluid physics. This project aims to develop a computer model that can predict Flow-Induced Vibration (FIV) on flexhoses in one of the atypical configurations found in the State-of-the-Art (SOTA) standard for hoses in an angulated state. Our research seeks to extend the literature and expand NASA’s FIV standard. The computational rigor and resources available in the Apollo Era did not allow for flow coupling between fluids and structure interfaces to evaluate FIV of the flexhose. Our team believes that modern techniques and methods of evaluation should be used to reevaluate and extend the database of FIV and stiffness properties of flexhoses to assess the risk of failure. The core performance criteria is a computer model that is able to predict the FIV frequency within 10%.

Jared F. Congiardo↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Prospective Impact Analysis of Novel Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

decarbonizing↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics. The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗

Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.

decarbonizing↗