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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

CI-MOR Final Report: Analysis and Validation of Critical Infrastructure Models using Model Order Reduction

This report summarizes the research and capabilities developed as part of the project “Analysis and Validation of Critical Infrastructure Models using Model Order Reduction” (CI-MOR) LDRD project. CI-MOR research enables the solution of large, complex optimization models that naturally arise in national security challenges involving critical infrastructures. Specifically, CI-MOR researchers developed methods to (1) rigorously approximate complex, nonlinear optimization formulations, (2) identify alternative near-optimal solutions, (3) accelerate optimization workflows used for complex applications, and (4) rigorously integrate domain knowledge in stochastic-process models. This report provides an overview of the research done in CI-MOR, and we describe application exemplars used to illustrate CI-MOR capabilities. Furthermore, we describe the software developed by CI-MOR that researchers can leverage to analyze new applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling, analysis, and optimization of complex nuclear processes and facilities via computational methods: The HALEU process case study

Improving and adapting industrial systems to timely meet changing programmatic and market demands is an important goal to achieve, including when operating and maintaining complex nuclear processes and facilities. However, changes to these complex systems are costly, particularly when they are already in place and bounded to stringent requirements and constraints such as when handling radioactive material and contaminated equipment. These conditions often exist when treating spent nuclear fuel remotely within shielded nuclear radiation chambers, commonly referred as hot cells, to condition nuclear material and/or fabricate products for utilization in other nuclear enterprises such as in the manufacture of advanced nuclear fuel. The illustrative case considered here is the production of high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) products supporting the deployment of advanced nuclear reactors. For the HALEU program, resources invested were and are being systematically analyzed so that these investments are maximized in a facility that is nearly 60 years old. A methodology that has effectively enabled optimized and improvements in the Spent Fuel Treatment (SFT) program, and consequently the HALEU program, involves discrete event simulation as addressed in this article. Here, the quantification of multiple productivity metrics, including material processing rates, cycle times, bottlenecks, number of material transfers as well as equipment, workstation, and material handling utilization, has resulted in a myriad of diverse discoveries and data-informed decisions regarding process layout and constituent, labor levels and schedules, selection of new process units, storage needs, and other critical process configurations. This article describes such a computational capability being applied for decision-making, illustrates its application to an actual process and program, provides illustrative results, and argues how computational methods for the modeling, analysis, and optimization of complex processes and facilities does lead to informed decisions derived from data and not only from intuition.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Mathematical Exposition of an Industrial-Scale Linear Program

Industrial-scale models require considerable setup time; hence, once built, they are used in myriad ways to consider closely related cases. In practice, the code for these models frequently evolves without appropriate notational choices, largely as a result of the lengthy development time of, and the number of individuals contributing to, their formulation. This leads to inefficiencies and obfuscates model structures that might be leveraged to expedite solutions. In this paper, we advocate for an emerging literature on model formulation “best practices” and present the reformulation of a widely used industrial-scale linear program. The efficient mathematical expression of this linear program, used to plan capacity expansion in the energy sector, allows for greater transparency of model structures and enhanced ability to identify computational performance improvements, as well as a lucid interpretation of its solutions. This type of formulation is employed in several mathematical programming courses at our university as an example of the advantages of best practices; the model more broadly is used widely to inform policy in the U.S. energy sector.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-physics Modeling of Radiative Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow for the Reactor Cavity Cooling System

High-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) are notable for their high thermal efficiency and potential for combined heat and power applications. These reactors are particularly appealing due to their advanced passive safety features. HTGRs utilize passive safety systems that function without requiring active components like pumps or compressors during emergencies. These reactor designs depend on a Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) to manage decay heat removal from the reactor pressure vessel (RPV) during accident conditions. The RCCS consists of vertical rectangular channels known as "risers" or riser ducts positioned around the RPV. These risers receive heat from the RPV through both convective and radiative heat transfer mechanisms. Understanding the interplay of multiple physical phenomena, such as fluid dynamics, heat transfer, and neutron interactions, is essential for the effective design and operation of nuclear reactors, particularly for systems like the RCCS. Multi-physics simulations provide a comprehensive approach to studying these interactions, offering detailed insights and enhancing accuracy. They are especially important in RCCS designs, where the interaction between radiative and convective heat transfer can significantly impact system performance. By leveraging multi-physics simulations, complex reactor behaviors can be modeled without compromising the fidelity of the underlying physical processes. This work aims to establish a robust methodology for coupling multiple physical processes in an air-cooled RCCS. By focusing on validating this multi-physics approach, the study involves designing test cases that simulate various conditions to verify the numerical models employed. The outcomes of this research will provide critical insights for accurately modeling and optimizing complex nuclear systems like the RCCS.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neural Networks for Prediction of Complex Chemistry in Water Treatment Process Optimization

Water chemistry plays a critical role in the design and operation of water treatment processes. Detailed chemistry modeling tools use a combination of advanced thermodynamic models and extensive databases to predict phase equilibria and reaction phenomena. The complexity and formulation of these models preclude their direct integration in equation-oriented modeling platforms, making it difficult to use their capabilities for rigorous water treatment process optimization. Neural networks (NN) can provide a pathway for integrating the predictive capability of chemistry software into equation-oriented models and enable optimization of complex water treatment processes across a broad range of conditions and process designs. Herein, we assess how NN architecture and training data impact their accuracy and use in equation-oriented water treatment models. We generate training data using PhreeqC software and determine how data generation and sample size impact the accuracy of trained NNs. The effect of NN architecture on optimization is evaluated by optimizing hypothetical black-box desalination processes using a range of feed compositions from USGS brackish water data set, tracking the number of successful optimizations, and testing the impact of initial guess on the final solution. Our results clearly demonstrate that data generation and architecture impact NN accuracy and viability for use in equation-oriented optimization problems.

Dudchenko, Alexander V↗
DOE OSTI2023

Encoding nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations using nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning

This article investigates the applicability of a recently proposed, nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) algorithm to identify and estimate the complex aerodynamics of limit cycle oscillations. NSBL provides a semi-analytical framework for determining the data-optimal sparse model nested within a (potentially) over-parameterized model. This is particularly relevant to nonlinear dynamical systems where modelling approaches involve the use of physics-based and data-driven components. In such cases, the data-driven components, where analytical descriptions of the physical processes are not readily available, are often prone to overfitting, meaning that the empirical aspects of these models will often involve the calibration of an unnecessarily large number of parameters. While an overparameterized model may fit the observed data well, such models may be inadequate for making predictions in regimes that are different from those wherein the data were recorded. In view of this, it is desirable to not only calibrate the model parameters, but also identify the optimal compromise between data fit and model complexity. In this article, we exhibit the optimal model discovery for an aeroelastic system wherein the structural dynamics are well-known and described by a differential equation model, coupled with a semi-empirical aerodynamic model for laminar separation flutter, resulting in low-amplitude limit cycle oscillations (LCO). To illustrate the performance of the algorithm, in this article, we use synthetic data and demonstrate the ability of the algorithm to correctly rediscover the optimal model and model parameters, given a known data-generating model. The synthetic data are generated from a forward simulation of a known differential equation model with parameters selected so as to mimic the dynamics observed in wind-tunnel experiments. Subsequently, we demonstrate the performance of the algorithm for model selection using noisy LCO data from wind tunnel experiments. As there is no ground truth available for the experimental data case, we provide a comparison between NSBL and Bayesian model selection to validate the results, and demonstrate the use of NSBL as an efficient alternative to traditional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tachyon: Intelligent Multi-Scale Modeling of Distributed Resilient Infrastructure and Workflows for Data Intensive HEP Analyses

The DOE High Energy Physics (HEP) program in Neutrino and Collider science drives data-intensive science and simulation on extreme-scale platforms. Modeling and optimizing the complex distributed components from experimental to leadership computing facilities are essential for HEP workflows to achieve required response times and resilience under various conditions. Tachyon proposes a framework for scalable modeling, simulation, and validation of key performance characteristics for the distributed infrastructure between FNAL and ALCF, along with associated HEP workflows.

Carothers, Chris [Rensselaer Poly.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tachyon: Intelligent Multi-Scale Modeling of Distributed Resilient Infrastructure and Workflows for Data Intensive HEP Analyses

The DOE High Energy Physics (HEP) program in Neutrino and Collider science drives data-intensive science and simulation on extreme-scale platforms. Modeling and optimizing the complex distributed components from experimental to leadership computing facilities are essential for HEP workflows to achieve required response times and resilience under various conditions. Tachyon proposes a framework for scalable modeling, simulation, and validation of key performance characteristics for the distributed infrastructure between FNAL and ALCF, along with associated HEP workflows.

Carothers, Chris [Rensselaer Poly.]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian optimization algorithms for accelerator physics

Accelerator physics relies on numerical algorithms to solve optimization problems in online accelerator control and tasks such as experimental design and model calibration in simulations. The effectiveness of optimization algorithms in discovering ideal solutions for complex challenges with limited resources often determines the problem complexity these methods can address. The accelerator physics community has recognized the advantages of Bayesian optimization algorithms, which leverage statistical surrogate models of objective functions to effectively address complex optimization challenges, especially in the presence of noise during accelerator operation and in resource-intensive physics simulations. In this review article, we offer a conceptual overview of applying Bayesian optimization techniques toward solving optimization problems in accelerator physics. We begin by providing a straightforward explanation of the essential components that make up Bayesian optimization techniques. We then give an overview of current and previous work applying and modifying these techniques to solve accelerator physics challenges. Finally, we explore practical implementation strategies for Bayesian optimization algorithms to maximize their performance, enabling users to effectively address complex optimization challenges in real-time beam control and accelerator design. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Toward digital design at the exascale: An overview of project ICECap

High performance computing has entered the Exascale Age. Capable of performing over 1018 floating point operations per second, exascale computers, such as El Capitan, the National Nuclear Security Administration's first, have the potential to revolutionize the detailed in-depth study of highly complex science and engineering systems. However, in addition to these kind of whole machine “hero” simulations, exascale systems could also enable new paradigms in digital design by making petascale hero runs routine. Currently, untenable problems in complex system design, optimization, model exploration, and scientific discovery could all become possible. Motivated by the challenge of uncovering the next generation of robust high-yield inertial confinement fusion (ICF) designs, project ICECap (Inertial Confinement on El Capitan) attempts to integrate multiple advances in machine learning (ML), scientific workflows, high performance computing, GPU-acceleration, and numerical optimization to prototype such a future. Built on a general framework, ICECap is exploring how these technologies could broadly accelerate scientific discovery on El Capitan. In addition to our requirements, system-level design, and challenges, we describe some of the key technologies in ICECap, including ML replacements for multiphysics packages, tools for human-machine teaming, and algorithms for multifidelity design optimization under uncertainty. As a test of our prototype pre-El Capitan system, we advance the state-of-the art for ICF hohlraum design by demonstrating the optimization of a 17-parameter National Ignition Facility experiment and show that our ML-assisted workflow makes design choices that are consistent with physics intuition, but in an automated, efficient, and mathematically rigorous fashion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

When more data hurts: Optimizing data coverage while mitigating diversity-induced underfitting in an ultrafast machine-learned potential

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) are becoming an essential tool in materials modeling. However, optimizing the generation of training data used to parametrize the MLIPs remains a significant challenge. This is because MLIPs can fail when encountering local environments too different from those present in the training data. The difficulty of determining a priori the environments that will be encountered during molecular dynamics simulation necessitates diverse, high-quality training data. Here, this study investigates how training data diversity affects the performance of MLIPs using the Ultra-Fast force field (UF 3 ) to model amorphous silicon nitride. We employ expert and autonomously generated data to create the training data and fit four force field variants to subsets of the data. Our findings reveal a critical balance in training data diversity: insufficient diversity hinders generalization, while excessive diversity can exceed the MLIP's learning capacity, reducing simulation accuracy. Specifically, we found that the UF 3 variant trained on a subset of the training data, in which nitrogen-rich structures were removed, offered vastly better prediction and simulation accuracy than any other variant. By comparing these UF 3 variants, we highlight the nuanced requirements for creating accurate MLIPs, emphasizing the importance of application-specific training data to achieve optimal performance in modeling complex material behaviors.

ab initio molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced manufacturing and digital twin technology for nuclear energy*

Advanced manufacturing techniques and digital twin technology are rapidly transforming the nuclear industry, offering the potential to enhance productivity, safety, and cost-effectiveness. Customized parts are being produced using additive manufacturing, automation, and robotics, while digital twin technology enables the virtual modeling and optimization of complex systems. These advanced technologies can significantly improve operational efficiency, predict system behavior, and optimize maintenance schedules in the nuclear energy sector, leading to heightened safety and reduced downtime. However, the nuclear industry demands the highest levels of safety and security, as well as intricate manufacturing processes and operations. Thus, challenges such as data management and cybersecurity must be addressed to fully realize the potential of advanced manufacturing techniques and digital twin technology in the nuclear industry. This comprehensive review highlights the critical role of digital twin technology with advanced manufacturing toward nuclear energy to improve performance, minimize downtime, and heighten safety, ultimately contributing to the global energy mix by providing dependable and low-carbon electricity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Complexity Reduction Methods for Large-Scale Spatially Explicit Biofuels Network Design

The size and complexity of energy system optimization models have increased significantly in recent years, driven by the availability of high-resolution spatial data. We present complexity reduction and solution methods that enable us to efficiently represent high-resolution spatial data in the network design of large-scale energy systems. We aim to reduce the size and enhance the computational efficiency of network design models without sacrificing solution accuracy. Specifically, we first present how to aggregate highly granular data into larger resolutions without averaging out their specific properties through a composite-curve-based approach and then develop a method to linearly represent these curves. Second, we utilize a general clustering method to determine groups of geographically proximate biomass fields and establish a single transportation arc for all of them, reducing the number of transportation-related variables while maintaining an accurate representation of the system. Finally, we introduce a two-step algorithm that decomposes large-scale network design problems into two smaller, more manageable subproblems. We demonstrate the application of our methods using a case study of switchgrass-to-biofuels network design in the eight states of the U.S. Midwest, using realistic and highly explicit spatial data.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of multi-fidelity models

Multi-fidelity models provide a framework for integrating computational models of varying complexity, allowing for accurate predictions while optimizing computational resources. These models are especially beneficial when acquiring high-accuracy data is costly or computationally intensive. This review offers a comprehensive analysis of multi-fidelity models, focusing on their applications in scientific and engineering fields, particularly in optimization and uncertainty quantification. It classifies publications on multi-fidelity modeling according to several criteria, including application area, surrogate model selection, types of fidelity, combination methods and year of publication. The study investigates techniques for combining different fidelity levels, with an emphasis on multi-fidelity surrogate models. Here this work discusses reproducibility, open-sourcing methodologies and benchmarking procedures to promote transparency. The manuscript also includes educational toy problems to enhance understanding. Additionally, this paper outlines best practices for presenting multi-fidelity-related savings in a standardized, succinct and yet thorough manner. The review concludes by examining current trends in multi-fidelity modeling, including emerging techniques, recent advancements, and promising research directions.

42 ENGINEERING↗