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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

DOE Deep Energy Retrofit Cost Survey

A survey was conducted by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on deep energy retrofit (DER) market drivers, opportunities, and challenges. The survey was part a research study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to gather information on the costs of DER from home performance contractors and stakeholders. Cost data was gathered from DER projects that use a comprehensive, whole-home approach to drastically reduce energy use and improve performance. DER projects often aim at reducing energy use by 50% or more. In addition, these projects can improve home comfort and potentially benefiting occupant health. Yet, market adoption of DER has been limited. Major limiting factors include complex projects, high costs, perceived risks, extensive disruption, and unfamiliar work scopes to some contractors. In order to better understand what motivates and deters DER projects in today’s market, a survey was conducted to gather this information, and to learn about promising approaches and technologies from the industry perspective. Past surveys on homeowners and home energy performance professionals have studied the motivations and barriers of energy efficiency retrofits. Two surveys of home energy performance professionals were conducted in recent years. The Resources for the Future (RFF) Home Energy Audit and Retrofit Survey was conducted in 2011 by recruiting energy auditors and retrofit installers through members of Efficiency First and Building Performance Institute (BPI) accredited contractors. The survey asked about the business and services that respondents provide, how often homeowners follow their recommendations to retrofit their homes, and the respondents’ opinion on barriers faced by the industry. The survey found that not enough homeowners know about energy audits, but more importantly, it is the high cost of retrofits compared to low energy prices that is responsible for few energy audits and retrofits being completed. The RESNET Deep Retrofit Industry Stakeholder Survey was conducted shortly after launching of the EnergySmart Home Performance Team program. The EnergySmart Team program involves a formal agreement among allied contractors who are engaged in high performance retrofits. Using this allied team approach, teams can pool their expertise and provide each other with customer referrals. The survey asked EnergySmart Team members and outside stakeholders on questions about market and technical barriers in performing home energy retrofits. Survey respondents identified lack of consumer awareness and lack of affordable financing for consumers as the leading market barriers to home energy retrofits. In their written comments, many survey respondents also echoed that the high costs of retrofit compared to low energy prices is a market barrier. Respondents found “certain housing characteristics that prevent effective retrofit” and “energy analysis software inaccuracy or limitations” are the two leading technical barriers. Their choices for technical barriers were reflective of the energy rater/auditor role played by the majority (78%) of the survey respondents. In comparison to past surveys, this work aimed to gather inputs from a broader segment of the home performance industry to identify the opportunities and barriers faced by DERs from all perspectives. The survey asks for project costs to help breakdown the high costs of DERs. This survey is also motivated by a need to better understand the role of DERs in reducing energy use by the residential sectors and meeting climate goals. The survey is designed towards obtaining more substantive inputs from survey respondents by encouraging written comments, rather than setting the goal to reach a large number of respondents. We took this approach because DER is currently still a niche market, so it is more valuable to gather in-depth inputs from individuals who are performing this work rather than getting to the masses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metal Complex Inks for Low-Cost Photovoltaic Material Metallization

The aim of the project titled “Metal Complex Inks for Low-Cost Photovoltaic Material Metallization” was to develop new metal complex conductive inks and pastes for PV, invented and commercialized by Electroninks, Inc. (EI, Austin, TX USA, https://electroninks.com), the only global supplier and scaled-manufacturing company of these metal complex inks. These materials were developed in this work for photovoltaic applications to significantly lower the cost of metallization, improve the manufacturability, and greatly reduce metal usage, while maintaining or improving device efficiencies when compared to traditional nanoparticle-based inks. The new pastes will do so by: 1) lowering the finger resistivity and precious metals usage by printing much denser (and therefore thinner/less material) metal films than possible with traditional particle-based screen-printed pastes; 2) decreasing the firing temperature to help preserve passivation; and 3) enabling a path to move the TW-scale PV industry from Ag to other materials including Ni, Cu, and Ni/Cu alloy pastes while continuing to leverage capital investment and expertise in screen printing metallization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prefabricated Zero Energy Retrofit Technologies: A Market Assessment

Part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) strategic goals is to stimulate the growth of a thriving domestic clean energy manufacturing industry. This report seeks to identify products in the European and U.S. markets that can enable a more integrated and standardized approach to conducting zero energy retrofits, leveraging off-site construction and manufacturing. Greater integration of energy conservation measures into prefabricated building components will further enable efficiency adoption, while reducing project complexity, risks, and costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prefabricated Zero Energy Retrofit Technologies: A Market Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) mission is to “create and sustain American leadership in the transition to a global clean energy economy.” EERE’s vision is a strong and prosperous America powered by clean, affordable, and secure energy. In support of this vision, one of EERE’s strategic pillars is to stimulate the growth of a thriving domestic clean energy manufacturing industry. This report seeks to identify products in the European and U.S. markets that can enable a more integrated and standardized approach to conducting zero energy retrofits, leveraging off-site construction and manufacturing. Greater integration of energy conservation measures into prefabricated building components will further enable efficiency adoption, while reducing project complexity, risks, and costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2021

Underlying each of the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample in order to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level financial data (Fujita, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include: Discount rate estimation methods and rationale; -Data sources used and data limitations; -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis; -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2022

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: -Discount rate estimation methods and rationale -Data sources used and data limitations -Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis -Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis A version of this analysis was most recently released in 2022. Going forward, this report will be updated as data allow and analyses necessitate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Commercial, industrial, and institutional discount rate estimation for efficiency standards analysis: Sector-level data 1998–2023

Underlying each of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) federal appliance and equipment energy conservation standards are a set of complex analyses of the projected costs and benefits of regulation. Any new or amended standard must be designed to achieve significant additional energy conservation, provided that it is technologically feasible and economically justified (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(A)). DOE determines economic justification based on whether the benefits exceed the burdens, considering a variety of factors, including the economic impact of the standard on consumers of the product and the savings in lifetime operating cost compared to any increase in price or maintenance expenses (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(2)(B)). As part of this determination, DOE conducts a life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis, which models the combined impact of appliance first cost and operating cost changes on a representative commercial building sample to identify the fraction of customers achieving LCC savings or incurring net cost at the considered efficiency levels. Thus, the commercial discount rate value(s) used to calculate the present value of energy cost savings within the LCC model implicitly plays a role in estimating the economic impact of potential standard levels. This report provides an in-depth discussion of the commercial discount rate estimation process relying on the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) to estimate a business’ cost of equity, and by adding a risk adjustment factor to the risk-free rate associated with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds to estimate their cost of debt. It is an update to previous reports on estimating commercial discount rates from firm-level and sector-level financial data (e.g., Fujita, 2021, 2016). Major topics covered in this report include the following: • Discount rate estimation methods and rationale • Data sources used and data limitations • Discount rate distributions for use in standards analysis • Discount rate estimation methods and distributions specific to the small business subgroup analysis.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Patterns, drivers, and a predictive model of dam removal cost in the United States

Given the burgeoning dam removal movement and the large number of dams approaching obsolescence in the United States, cost estimating data and tools are needed for dam removal prioritization, planning, and execution. We used the list of removed dams compiled by American Rivers to search for publicly available reported costs for dam removal projects. Total cost information could include component costs related to project planning, dam deconstruction, monitoring, and several categories of mitigation activities. We compiled reported costs from 455 unique sources for 668 dams removed in the United States from 1965 to 2020. The dam removals occurred within 571 unique projects involving 1–18 dams. When adjusted for inflation into 2020 USD, cost of these projects totaled $\$1.522$ billion, with per-dam costs ranging from $\$1$ thousand (k) to $\$268.8$ million (M). The median cost for dam removals was $\$157$k, $\$823$k, and $\$6.2$M for dams that were< 5 m, between 5–10 m, and > 10 m in height, respectively. Geographic differences in total costs showed that northern states in general, and the Pacific Northwest in particular, spent the most on dam removal. The Midwest and the Northeast spent proportionally more on removal of dams less than 5 m in height, whereas the Northwest and Southwest spent the most on larger dam removals > 10 m tall. We used stochastic gradient boosting with quantile regression to model dam removal cost against potential predictor variables including dam characteristics (dam height and material), hydrography (average annual discharge and drainage area), project complexity (inferred from construction and sediment management, mitigation, and post-removal cost drivers), and geographic region. Dam height, annual average discharge at the dam site, and project complexity were the predominant drivers of removal cost. The final model had an R 2 of 57% and when applied to a test dataset model predictions had a root mean squared error of $\$5.09$M and a mean absolute error of $\$1.45$M, indicating its potential utility to predict estimated costs of dam removal. We developed a R shiny application for estimating dam removal costs using customized model inputs for exploratory analyses and potential dam removal planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapidly Deployable Acoustic Monitoring and Localization System Based on a Low-Cost Wave Buoy Platform

The primary objective of this project is to develop a cost-effective, fit-for-purpose environmental monitoring system, “NoiseSpotter®,” that characterizes, classifies, and provides accurate location information for anthropogenic and natural sounds in near real-time. NoiseSpotter was developed to support the evaluation of potential acoustic effects of marine energy (ME) projects. By utilizing a compact array of three acoustic particle motion sensors, NoiseSpotter triangulates individual bearings to provide sound source localization to within 5% accuracy, allowing the ability to discern ME device sounds relative to other confounding sounds in the environment, while providing location estimates to nearby marine mammals for environmental mitigation purposes. The ME industry needs proven solutions to meet environmental impact assessment needs. The NoiseSpotter® includes off-the-shelf, modular components that are easy to assemble and disassemble. Its acoustic particle motion sensors are commercially available and the data logger and real-time telemetry system is designed to be plug-and-play. The entire system is relatively compact and can be deployed from small vessels. NoiseSpotter’s near real-time capability enables operational monitoring of ME sounds, particularly during early stages of technology adoption to facilitate mitigation of potential noise effects. Widespread adoption of the technology for acoustic monitoring of ME devices requires that it be cost effective; hence the anticipated commercial cost of system hardware is $35,000. This project contributes to reducing barriers to ME testing through support of scientific research focused on reducing or mitigating environmental risks and lowering costs and complexity of environmental monitoring. This project has developed an acoustic monitoring system, NoiseSpotter® (U.S. Patent No. 11,156,734 and U.S. Registered Trademark No. 6,442,313), to detect and characterize baseline noise and sounds from ME operations and support geolocation of detected sounds. The intended outcome of the project is to mitigate concerns about the potential for ME device noise to alter marine mammal or fish behavior. NoiseSpotter® enables cost-effective, near real-time acoustic monitoring of an operational ME device relative to ambient environmental noise and provides a technical basis for ME developers seeking to navigate the permitting process in an efficient manner.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

DeepLynx Ecosystem 2025

Poor data integration and governance continue to plague complex engineering projects, resulting in missed cost, schedule, and performance targets. Departments operate in isolated systems with manual data exchange, creating fragmented information that compounds errors and leads to significant delays and cost overruns. The DeepLynx ecosystem addresses these challenges through an open-source, modular data management platform that transforms fragmented project data into an integrated digital thread. Built on a federated microservice architecture, the ecosystem comprises seven specialized tools centered around DeepLynx Nexus, a unified data catalog with hierarchical organization and graph-based navigation capabilities. The ecosystem includes: DeepLynx Stream for real-time timeseries data ingestion from industrial sources; DeepLynx Ingest for governed data uploads with formal review workflows; DeepLynx Lattice for ontology-based entity and relationship extraction; DeepLynx Run for workflow orchestration and secure AI/ML compute; DeepLynx Visualize for 3D digital twin visualization; and DeepLynx Insight for AI-assisted document analysis with traceable, grounded responses. Deployable in cloud, on-premise, or hybrid environments using containerized Docker applications and Helm charts, the DeepLynx ecosystem provides flexible infrastructure that adapts to organizational requirements. By consolidating project data into a unified data lake with role-based access controls and OAuth2 authentication, DeepLynx enables digital thread and digital twin capabilities that improve decision-making, reduce risk, and support complex engineering workflows throughout the project lifecycle.

42 - ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wound Field and Hybrid Synchronous Machines for EV Traction with Brushless Capacitive Rotor Field Excitation (Final Report)

This project focused on the development of wound field synchronous machines (WFSMs) and hybrid excitation synchronous machines (HESMs) with brushless capacitive power transfer for the field excitation. The target application for the machines developed is the main traction motor in electric vehicles. The magnetization in these types of machines is provided by a field winding on the rotor which is excited with DC current. The magnetization level in the machine can be varied by changing the magnitude of the field current. The variable magnetization or field is one of the key features of WFSMs. WFSMs are commonly used as generators however they have several attractive features for automotive traction applications. 1) No use of permanent magnet: Rare earth permanent magnets are primarily mined and processed in China. They have been subject to large price and supply variations and their export may be restricted during times of geopolitical tension. 2) Easy field weakening: Wound field synchronous machines have complete control of their field excitation. With proper design, this type of machine can electromagnetically have an infinite constant power speed range. 3) High power factor: With proper choice of the field excitation, WFSMs may be operated with high or even unity power factor. This potentially allows for the inverter connected to the stator winding to be downsized. In comparison induction machines and interior permanent magnet synchronous machines must supply reactive power to the stator increasing the kVA rating and cost of the inverter. 4) Reduced iron losses at high speed: By reducing the field excitation, the iron loss in the stator can be reduced. This is in comparison to interior permanent magnet synchronous machines which must use stator current to buck or reduce the flux produced by the permanent magnets. Generally, WFSMs have their highest efficiency at high speed. 5) Torque output at high temperatures: The magnetization provided by the field winding only depends on the field current and not on the field winding temperature. This is in contrast to permanent magnet machines where the permanent magnet flux decreases as the magnet temperature increases. Historically a number of approaches have been developed to provide DC current to the rotating field winding in WFSM’s including brushes and slip rings, low frequency brushless exciters, and high frequency rotary transformers and rectifiers. In this project, a different approach was used: brushless capacitive power transfer. Brushless capacitive power transfer uses two sets of rotating capacitors or electrodes in which an AC electric field is established by a high frequency inverter. A displacement current can flow through the airgap in the rotating capacitors which is rectified on the rotor using a diode bridge. The potential advantage of capacitive power transfer is that there is no need for heavy iron to guide magnetic flux. The electric flux lines terminate on the charges on the rotary capacitor surfaces. This should also limit the electric field outside the rotary capacitor airgaps. The main challenge with capacitive power transfer is that the capacitance and surface area of the rotating capacitors is small. Because capacitive power transfer systems are essentially a dual of a magnetic system, an Ampere per Hertz relationship is characteristic versus a Volts per Hertz relationship. A very high frequency power inverter must be used to provide sufficient excitation to the field winding. The concept of using capacitive power transfer to excite a high performance WFSM was initially developed in a previous U.S.A. Dept. of Energy project, DE-EE0006829. This project focused on increasing the power density of the WFSMs and reducing the cost and manufacturing complexity of the capacitive power transfer system. This project has demonstrated that WFSMs with brushless capacitive field power transfer can provide a high-power density and low-cost automotive powertrain technology.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Chilling Effects of Administrative Burden on Efficiency Policy Uptake: Examining the Case of Federal ESAs

Utilizing policies and programs which incentivize energy efficiency or on-site renewables is difficult. The challenges and costs associated with researching these policies, interacting with their providers, and ensuring regulatory compliance can be collectively referred to as administrative burden. To better understand the impact of administrative burden on energy efficiency policies, we investigated the administrative burden associated with energy sales arrangements (ESA). ESAs are a contracting vehicle related to energy savings performance contracts where an energy services company designs and constructs a renewable energy system at a federal site, transferring ownership of those generating assets to the site after a 20-year term. We conducted a series of in-depth interviews with a variety of relevant ESA stakeholders, including federal project managers, subject matter experts, and energy service companies. We then augmented these interviews with a review of the relevant literature. This research indicated that the current level of administrative burden decreases the adoption of renewable energy through ESAs by the federal government by raising upfront costs, depressing project attempts due to complexity, and introducing delays and challenges in successfully implemented projects. This chilling effect is especially pronounced in new policy vehicles and with inexperienced implementers. Findings from the specific case of ESAs can be generalized to other types of energy policy including efficiency programs. Policy makers decrease the efficacy of initiatives through increased administrative burden, and these effects will be most pronounced in programs with novel design or targeted at unfamiliar audiences.

Newkirk, Alex↗
DOE OSTI2023

Five grand challenges of offshore wind financing in the United States

Offshore wind energy has the potential to play a critical role in fostering a renewable energy transformation in the United States. This owes to its massive technical potential, strategic location near densely populated coastlines, and - relative to onshore wind and solar - high capacity factors and consistent production. The Biden Administration's target to build 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 (from 0.04 GW today) requires the creation and swift development of a new industry that interlinks the wind and power industries with the maritime sector. Critical to its success is financing. While financial capital is abundant, deploying it for offshore wind faces major challenges. We identify and describe five grand challenges affecting offshore wind finance in the U.S. Failing to address these challenges may put deployment targets at risk. The challenges include (1) Early years financing: navigating the complexities, timing mismatches, and high costs of projects in the development phase; (2) Policy support for project financial solvency: addressing the uncertainty and systematic transfers of tax credits away from offshore wind, characteristic of the U.S. Investment Tax Credit; (3) Workforce development: building a skilled workforce for an emerging market; (4) Transmission and integration barriers: upgrading the power grid to reliably support large scale offshore wind integration; and (5) Floating wind development: financing the development and scale-up of floating offshore wind technologies. The second challenge has already been solved to a large extent by the Inflation Reduction Act.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads

Abstract. Floating wind turbines must withstand a unique and challenging set of loads from the wind and ocean environment. To de-risk development, accurate predictions of these loads are necessary. Uncertainty in modeling predictions leads to larger required safety factors, increasing project costs and the levelized cost of energy. Complex aero-hydro-elastic modeling tools use many input parameters to represent the wind, waves, current, aerodynamic loads, hydrodynamic loads, and structural properties. It is helpful to understand which of these parameters ultimately drives a design. In this work, an ultimate and fatigue-proxy load sensitivity analysis was performed with 35 different input parameters, using an elementary effects approach to identify the most influential parameters for a case study involving the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible during normal operation. The importance of each parameter was evaluated using 14 response quantities of interest across three operational wind speed conditions. The study concludes that turbulent wind velocity standard deviation is the parameter with the strongest sensitivity; this value is important not just for turbine loads, but also for the global system response. The system center of mass in the wind direction is found to have the highest impact on the system rotation and tower loads. The current velocity is found to be the most dominating parameter for the system global motion and consequently the mooring loads. All tested wind turbulence parameters in addition to the standard deviation are also found to be influential. Wave characteristics are influential for some fatigue-proxy loading but do not significantly impact the extreme ultimate loads in these operational load cases. The required number of random seeds for stochastic environmental conditions is considered to ensure that the sensitivities are due to the input parameters and not due to the seed. The required number of analysis points in the parameter space is identified so that the conclusions represent a global sensitivity. The results are specific to the platform, turbine, and choice of parameter ranges, but the demonstrated approach can be applied widely to guide focus in parameter uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Robust, Accurate, and Efficient: Quantum Embedding Using the Huzinaga Level-Shift Projection Operator for Complex Systems

Using wave function (WF) in density functional theory (DFT) embedding methods provides a framework for performing localized, high-accuracy WF calculations on a system, while not incurring the full computational cost of the WF calculation on the full system. To effectively partition a system into localized WF and DFT subsystems, we utilize the Huzinaga level-shift projection operator within an absolutely localized basis. In this work, we study the ability of the absolutely localized Huzinaga level-shift projection operator method to study complex WF and DFT partitions, including partitions between multiple covalent bonds, a double bond, and transition-metal–ligand bonds. We find that our methodology can accurately describe all of these complex partitions. Additionally, we study the robustness of this method with respect to the WF method, specifically where the embedded systems were described using a multiconfigurational WF method. We found that the method is systematically improvable with respect to both the number of atoms in the WF region and the size of the basis set used, with energy errors less than 1 kcal/mol. Additionally, we calculated the adsorption energy of H2 to a model of an iron metal–organic framework (Fe-MOF-74) to within 1 kcal/mol compared to CASPT2 calculations performed on the full model while incurring only a small fraction of the full computational cost. In conclusion, this work demonstrates that the absolutely localized Huzinaga level-shift projection operator method is applicable to very complex systems with difficult electronic structures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Plasma-Assisted Pre-Chamber Ignition System for Highly Dilute Stoichiometric Heavy-Duty Natural Gas Engines (Final Technical Report)

This project explored advanced ignition technologies to significantly enhance efficiency and reduce operating costs for heavy-duty natural gas engines operating at stoichiometric conditions, while meeting ultra-low NOx emission standards. The main goal was to develop and validate a plasma-assisted pre-chamber ignition system that could deliver at least a 2% increase in brake thermal efficiency (BTE) and a 4% decrease in total cost of ownership (TCO) compared to a typical multi-cylinder engine with three-way catalyst aftertreatment, ensuring compatibility with the expected 2027 EPA/CARB regulations. In the first half of the project, the research team concentrated on developing and testing plasma-assisted pre-chamber ignition using nanosecond pulsed discharges. Extensive experiments were conducted in an optically accessible rapid-compression and expansion machine, a constant-volume chamber, and an optical single-cylinder engine. Experiments were coupled with CFD simulations. The work produced unique insights into pre-chamber flame formation, jet ignition, dilution effects, and flame quenching at pressures, temperatures, and dilution levels relevant to engines. Although plasma-assisted ignition showed promise in controlled lab settings, the research also identified fundamental and practical challenges when applying this technology to real engine conditions. Midway through the project, a crucial pivot was made, guided by three key findings. First, the power electronics required for nanosecond plasma discharges were found to be too costly for commercial use, undermining the project’s cost-of-ownership goals. Second, nanosecond plasma ignition was highly sensitive to turbulent flow in the pre-chamber, resulting in lower ignition reliability than traditional spark under engine-like conditions. Third, achieving a truly diffuse low-temperature plasma at high pressures near top dead center was not possible, reducing the anticipated chemical enhancement benefits. These results collectively suggested that continuing with plasma-assisted ignition was unlikely to meet both efficiency and cost objectives. In response, the project shifted focus to a more realistic approach: enhancing traditional spark-based pre-chamber ignition with significantly less spark energy. Using insights gained earlier in the project, the team redesigned the pre-chamber to maintain high dilution tolerance and quick combustion, even with lower ignition energy. Testing confirmed that with optimized pre-chamber design and combustion timing, a lower-energy spark could reliably ignite highly diluted stoichiometric mixtures, reduce burn time, and boost thermal efficiency. Final engine testing and techno-economic analysis verified that this revised approach successfully achieved the project goals. The optimized pre-chamber ignition system provided over a 2% increase in calculated brake thermal efficiency compared to the baseline engine. Notably, the lower ignition energy and simplified hardware reduced component stress, extended maintenance intervals, and lowered the total cost of ownership. When used with stoichiometric operation and traditional three-way aftertreatment, the system remained compatible with near-zero NOx emissions targets without increasing cost or complexity in the emissions control system. In summary, although the project deviated from its initial plasma-assisted ignition idea, the work produced a more practical and commercially viable solution. The results show that precisely optimized, low-energy pre-chamber spark ignition can significantly improve efficiency and reduce overall ownership costs for heavy-duty natural gas engines. This directly aligns with DOE goals for cleaner, more efficient, and cost-effective transportation technologies.

03 NATURAL GAS↗