Climate model large ensembles as test beds for applied compound event research
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Lehner, Flavio (ORCID:0000000346329701)↗
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A tri-level optimization model for interdependent infrastructure network resilience against compound hazard events
Resilient operation of interdependent infrastructures against compound hazard events is essential for maintaining societal well-being. To address consequence assessment challenges in this problem space, we propose a novel policy-guided tri-level optimization model applied to a proof-of-concept case study with fuel distribution and transportation networks – encompassing one realistic network; one fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as networks drawn from three synthetic distributions. Mathematically, our approach takes the form of a defender-attacker-defender (DAD) model—a multi-agent tri-level optimization, comprised of a defender, attacker, and an operator acting in sequence. Here, in this study, our notional operator may choose proxy actions to operate an interdependent system comprised of fuel terminals and gas stations (functioning as supplies) and a transportation network with traffic flow (functioning as demand) to minimize unmet demand at gas stations. A notional attacker aims to hypothetically disrupt normal operations by reducing supply at the supply terminals, and the notional defender aims to identify best proxy defense policy options which include hardening supply terminals or allowing alternative distribution methods such as trucking reserve supplies. We solve our DAD formulation at a metropolitan scale and present practical defense policy insights against hypothetical compound hazards. We demonstrate the generalizability of our framework by presenting results for a realistic network; a fictitious, yet realistic network; as well as for three networks drawn from synthetic distributions. Additionally, we demonstrate the scalability of the framework by investigating runtime performance as a function of the network size. Steps for future research are also discussed.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Decomposing a Compound Flood Event in an Urban Pacific Northwest Estuary: Primary Drivers and Projections for the Future
The Duwamish River Estuary (DRE) of Washington is prone to compound flooding during atmospheric river (AR) events. The processes contributing to such flooding (coastal and fluvial) have remained opaque to municipalities that are increasingly impacted. Here, we conduct a suite of coupled atmosphere-hydrology-ocean model simulations with varying forcing combinations (tide, surge, and/or river discharge) to identify the primary drivers of compound flooding during a recent AR event. We also test year 2,100 climate forcing to project how flooding and drivers may change in the future for the same event. We identify a clear distinction between dynamics in the downstream, engineered portion of the DRE compared to the upstream, “natural” river. Downstream, tides dominate water levels but contributions from storm surge and nonlinear tide-surge interaction elevate tide-only high waters from no flooding to major flooding. Upstream, total water levels during the event are ∼6 cm higher than downstream due to an increasing influence of river discharge over surge and tides. Notably, nonlinear surge-river and tide-river interactions act to reduce upstream water levels up to 50% compared to estimates which linearly sum tides, surge, and river, likely reducing flood vulnerability. Under two future climate scenarios: one with only sea level rise (SLR) and another with SLR plus atmospheric warming, we find little change in mechanism contributions to water levels. Expanded flooding in both cases is largely due to SLR, as a ∼50% increase to river discharge under the warming scenario has no impact downstream and marginally increases (∼3 cm) water level upstream.
atmospheric river↗
Transitional States During Compound Extreme Events: Examples from Cascading Wildfires and Floods
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Jackson, Nicole Danielle [Sandia National Laborato↗
Transitional states during compound extreme events and power outages
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Jackson, Nicole Danielle [Sandia National Laborato↗
Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations
Societally relevant weather impacts typically result from compound events, which are rare combinations of weather and climate drivers. Focussing on four event types arising from different combinations of climate variables across space and time, here we illustrate that robust analyses of compound events — such as frequency and uncertainty analysis under present-day and future conditions, event attribution to climate change, and exploration of low-probability-high-impact events — require data with very large sample size. In particular, the required sample is much larger than that needed for analyses of univariate extremes. We demonstrate that Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) simulations from multiple climate models, which provide hundreds to thousands of years of weather conditions, are crucial for advancing our assessments of compound events and constructing robust model projections. Combining SMILEs with an improved physical understanding of compound events will ultimately provide practitioners and stakeholders with the best available information on climate risks.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python
pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Design Considerations for Attitude State Awareness and Prevention of Entry into Unusual Attitudes
Loss of control - inflight (LOC-I) has historically represented the largest category of commercial aviation fatal accidents. A review of the worldwide transport airplane accidents (2001-2010) evinced that loss of attitude or energy state awareness was responsible for a large majority of the LOC-I events. A Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) study of 18 worldwide loss-of-control accidents and incidents determined that flight crew loss of attitude awareness or energy state awareness due to lack of external visual reference cues was a significant causal factor in 17 of the 18 reviewed flights. CAST recommended that "Virtual Day-Visual Meteorological Condition" (Virtual Day-VMC) displays be developed to provide the visual cues necessary to prevent loss-of-control resulting from flight crew spatial disorientation and loss of energy state awareness. Synthetic vision or equivalent systems (SVS) were identified for a design "safety enhancement" (SE-200). Part of this SE involves the conduct of research for developing minimum aviation system performance standards (MASPS) for these flight deck display technologies to aid flight crew attitude and energy state awareness similar to that of a virtual day-VMC-like environment. This paper will describe a novel experimental approach to evaluating a flight crew's ability to maintain attitude awareness and to prevent entry into unusual attitudes across several SVS optical flow design considerations. Flight crews were subjected to compound-event scenarios designed to elicit channelized attention and startle/surprise within the crew. These high-fidelity scenarios, designed from real-world events, enable evaluation of the efficacy of SVS at improving flight crew attitude awareness to reduce the occurrence of LOC-I incidents in commercial flight operations.
Ellis, Kyle K. E.↗
Climate Adaptation Approaches for Water and Electric Utilities: A compendium of existing strategies in a changing climate
Report analyzes plans developed by water and electric utilities to address the impacts of changes in the climate within their service territories. The analysis identifies the main types of changes that utilities address, such as sea level rise, extreme heat, and compound events such as freezing rain/show and extreme wind events. It then identifies adaptation approaches utilities have proposed or adopted to address the changes that are anticipated in their service territories. The report also identifies the mechanisms utilities (and in some cases the governments which the utilities are part of) use to ensure that energy or environmental equity is increased as a result of the resilience program. In summary, the report provides a compendium of adaptation strategies that can be used by others as they review their own need to increase climate resilience.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Teleseismic detection of a slow precursor to the great 1989 Macquarie Ridge earthquake
Low-frequency spectra for the 1989 Macquarie Ridge earthquake (magnitude 8.2) show an amplitude increase and a phase-delay decrease below 6 millihertz that require a short-term slow precursor. This earthquake can be modeled as a compound event in which a fast-rupturing, ordinary earthquake was initiated by an episode of slow, smooth deformation that began more than 100 seconds before the main shock. The moment released in the slow precursor was large, about 3 x 10 exp 20 newton-meters, equivalent to an event of magnitude 7.6. The data are consistent with the precursor being generated in a region of the oceanic upper mantle below the main rupture.
Ihmle, Pierre F.↗
Compound Mesoscale Convective Systems and Low‐Pressure Systems in Tropical Monsoon Regions: Assessing Their Meteorology and Precipitation
Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and low-pressure systems (LPS) are both strongly associated with precipitation across the regions where they occur, particularly within global monsoon systems; however, their co-occurrence and its relationship to precipitation have not been systematically examined. Here, we use LPS and MCS trackers to detect compound MCS and LPS events in five monsoon regions and assess the association of this co-occurrence with anomalies of winds, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables. Additionally, we investigate the spatial distribution of precipitating MCS and LPS events. Our results show that most (∼60%) MCS and LPS co-occurrences are located in the lower latitudes, where they contribute up to 40% of annual precipitation. We find that compound events generally produce more extreme precipitation than MCS-only or LPS-only events. Furthermore, our assessment of the synoptic and mesoscale composites reveals that the underlying dynamics of compound events exhibit anomalously positive convective available potential energy and an anomalously low-pressure within the location of the event. In terms of the synoptic environment of the features, the compound MCS and LPS events are associated with inverted troughs in three out of five monsoon locations assessed.
Environmental sciences↗
Recreating the California New Year's Flood Event of 1997 in a Regionally Refined Earth System Model
Abstract The 1997 New Year's flood event was the most costly in California's history. This compound extreme event was driven by a category 5 atmospheric river that led to widespread snowmelt. Extreme precipitation, snowmelt, and saturated soils produced heavy runoff causing widespread inundation in the Sacramento Valley. This study recreates the 1997 flood using the Regionally Refined Mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM‐E3SM) under prescribed ocean conditions. Understanding the processes causing extreme events informs practical efforts to anticipate and prepare for such events in the future, and also provides a rich context to evaluate model skill in representing extremes. Three California‐focused RRM grids, with horizontal resolution refinement of 14 km down to 3.5 km, and six forecast lead times, 28 December 1996 at 00Z through 30 December 1996 at 12Z, are assessed for their ability to recreate the 1997 flood. Planetary to synoptic scale atmospheric circulations and integrated vapor transport are weakly influenced by horizontal resolution refinement over California. Topography and mesoscale circulations, such as the Sierra barrier jet, are better represented at finer horizontal resolutions resulting in better estimates of storm total precipitation and storm duration snowpack changes. Traditional time‐series and causal analysis frameworks are used to examine runoff sensitivities state‐wide and above major reservoirs. These frameworks show that horizontal resolution plays a more prominent role in shaping reservoir inflows, namely the magnitude and time‐series shape, than forecast lead time, 2‐to‐4 days prior to the 1997 flood onset.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Object-oriented analysis as a foundation for building climate storylines of compounding short-term drought and crop heat stress
Introduction: Crops are vulnerable to precipitation and heat extremes during late spring through summer. Methods: We analyzed for a north-central U.S. region short-term drought and agricultural heat stress during April-May-June-July. We used the 4-km Parameter Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) for observations, aggregated to a 25-km grid, and two 25-km Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) simulns used either GFDL- or MPI-GCM boundary conditions. We chose 1981-2000 as our contemporary time period, and 2041- 2060 as our scenario time period, which used the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emissions scenario. We used object-oriented analysis to identify events of interest in observations and simulations by identifying objects in a space-time domain that meet specified criteria, such as exceeding a heat-stress temperature threshold. The event diagnosis allowed analysis of compound events, occurring when temperature and drought objects overlap. Results: Identified objects yielded events that can undermine agricultural productivity and which are thus relevant to decision makers, making them building blocks for possible climate storylines. The observations and simulations showed similar spatial distributions of event frequencies across the analysis region. However, the simulations attained this distribution by having fewer events that tend to cover larger areas compared to observed events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations was coarser than their 25-km grids. Short-term drought frequency increased and heat-stress frequency decreased in transitioning to the scenario climate. When compounding occurred heat-stress events generally preceded the short-term drought events. The overlapping, compound events tended to be more extreme compared to non-overlapping events of either type. Discussion: The information yielded projected changes in these agriculturally motivated events. One prominent conditional behavior emerging from the work was that a heat-stress event should be a warning to watch for potential drought, as both could compound each other to more intense levels.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The cometary contribution to prebiotic chemistry
The chemical composition of cometary nuclei is examined to estimate the potential contribution of volatiles to the prebiotic earth from cometary collisions. Observations of cometary nuclei are reviewed to describe the chemical evolution of the objects and their theoretical potential for affecting the terrestrial environment. Specific attention is given to the plausibility of the single-impact formation of the earth-moon system, and experiments are proposed for testing the present theories. It is proposed that significant contributions of biogenic elements such as C, H, N, O, P, and S resulted from these nuclei colliding with the earth. Observations of the solar atmosphere and of the circumstellar shells of C-rich stars indicate that compounds such as CO, C2, and H2O were not pyrolyzed as a result of collision events. The compounds are theorized to have established the foundation for the abiotic synthesis of key biochemical molecules.
Oro, J.↗
Mapping Philadelphia's Floodscape: A 35‐Year Analysis of Coastal Urban Flood Hazards and Drivers
Low-lying coastal urban cities face significant flooding risks from river flooding (fluvial), storm surges and high tides (coastal), and intense local rainfall (pluvial). Accurately assessing these hazards requires modeling frameworks capable of capturing both the individual and combined effects of multiple flood drivers, as well as the diversity of flood scenarios that can arise from their interactions. In this study, we implemented a physics-based, high-resolution modeling approach to assess flood hazards in Philadelphia, PA, a coastal city exemplifying multi-driver flood risks over multiple decades (1985–2019), by simulating a wide range of flood events at a 10-m resolution. By integrating watershed, coastal, and urban flood models, we explicitly resolved the interaction between fluvial, pluvial, and coastal processes across the city. From these simulations, we identified flood hazard hotspots and systematically attributed the primary drivers of flooding for each event. The results suggested that 44% of Philadelphia's flood events were compound floods, primarily driven by fluvial-surge and fluvial-pluvial combinations. Notably, 77% of these events involved fluvial flooding, either as a single flood driver or in combination with other drivers, underscoring the dominant role of riverine processes in the city's flood hazard. Overall, this study demonstrates the value of a comprehensive, process-based approach for urban flood hazard assessment and highlights the importance of considering the full spectrum of flood scenarios to inform targeted and adaptive flood management strategies in coastal cities.
Compound flooding↗
Simulation of compound flooding in Japan using a nationwide model
For this study, a high-resolution, summit-to-sea unstructured-grid model was used to simulate two compound flooding events in different geomorphic settings in Japan: the July 2012 flood in Kumamoto city and July 2018 flood in Okayama City, both caused by a torrential rainfall during seasonal Meiyu front but otherwise exhibiting quite different compound flood characteristics. The model shows good performance in simulating flooding extent; e.g., the Hit Rate for the inundation event in 2018 exceeds 0.9. Sensitivity tests were conducted to determine the roles/significance of levee structures along major rivers in coastal regions. Our results indicate that riverine and oceanic factors as well as levees significantly contribute to the observed flooding extents, and we are able to quantify the contributions from each factor at different locations. The model has been implemented operationally as the first nationwide 3-day compound flooding forecast system for Japan.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Self assembly properties of primitive organic compounds
A central event in the origin of life was the self-assembly of amphiphilic, lipid-like compounds into closed microenvironments. If a primitive macromolecular replicating system could be encapsulated within a vesicular membrane, the components of the system would share the same microenvironment, and the result would be a step toward true cellular function. The goal of our research has been to determine what amphiphilic molecules might plausibly have been available on the early Earth to participate in the formation of such boundary structures. To this end, we have investigated primitive organic mixtures present in carbonaceous meteorites such as the Murchison meteorite, which contains 1-2 percent of its mass in the form of organic carbon compounds. It is likely that such compounds contributed to the inventory of organic carbon on the prebiotic earth, and were available to participate in chemical evolution leading to the emergence of the first cellular life forms. We found that Murchison components extracted into non-polar solvent systems are surface active, a clear indication of amphiphilic character. One acidic fraction self-assembles into vesicular membranes that provide permeability barriers to polar solutes. Other evidence indicates that the membranes are bimolecular layers similar to those formed by contemporary membrane lipids. We conclude that bilayer membrane formation by primitive amphiphiles on the early Earth is feasible. However, only a minor fraction of acidic amphiphiles assembles into bilayers, and the resulting membranes require narrowly defined conditions of pH and ionic composition to be stable. It seems unlikely, therefore, that meteoritic infall was a direct source of membrane amphiphiles. Instead, the hydrocarbon components and their derivatives more probably would provide an organic stock available for chemical evolution. Our current research is directed at possible reactions which would generate substantial quantities of membranogenic amphiphiles. One possibility is photochemical oxidation of hydrocarbons.
Deamer, D. W.↗
Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event
Global food security can be threatened by short-term extreme events that negatively impact food production, food purchasing power, and agricultural economic activity. At the same time, environmental pollutants like greenhouse gases (GHGs) can be reduced due to the same short-term extreme stressors. Stress events include pandemics like COVID-19 and widespread droughts like those experienced in 2015. Here we consider the question: what if COVID-19 had co-occurred with a 2015-like drought year? Using a coupled biophysical-economic modeling framework, we evaluate how this compound stress would alter both agricultural sector GHG emissions and change the number of undernourished people worldwide. We further consider three interdependent adaptation options: local water use for crop production, regional shifts in cropland area, and global trade of agricultural products. We find that GHG emissions decline due to reduced economic activity in the agricultural sector, but this is paired with large increases in undernourished populations in developing nations. Local and regional adaptations that make use of natural resources enable global-scale reductions in impacted populations via increased global trade.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗