Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “computational statistics”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmic Reionization on Computers: Statistics, Physical Properties, and Environments of Lyman Limit Systems at z ~ 6

Lyman limit systems (LLSs) are dense hydrogen clouds with high enough H i column densities to absorb Lyman continuum photons emitted from distant quasars. Their high column densities imply an origin in dense environments; however, the statistics and distribution of LLSs at high redshifts still remain uncertain. In this paper, we use self-consistent radiative transfer cosmological simulations from the Cosmic Reionization on Computers (CROC) project to study the physical properties of LLSs at the tail end of cosmic reionization at z ~ 6. We generate 3000 synthetic quasar sight lines to obtain a large number of LLS samples in the simulations. In addition, with the high physical fidelity and resolution of CROC, we are able to quantify the association between these LLS samples and nearby galaxies. Our results show that the fraction of LLSs spatially associated with nearby galaxies increases with H i column density. Moreover, we find that LLSs that are not near any galaxy typically reside in filamentary structures connecting neighboring galaxies in the intergalactic medium (IGM). This quantification of the distribution and association of LLSs to large-scale structure informs our understanding of the IGM–galaxy connection during the "Epoch of Reionization," and provides a theoretical basis for interpreting future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmic Reionization on Computers: Statistical Properties of the Distributions of Mean Opacities

Quasar absorption lines provide a unique window to the relationship between galaxies and the intergalactic medium during the Epoch of Reionization. In particular, high redshift quasars enable measurements of the neutral hydrogen content of the universe. However, the limited sample size of observed quasar spectra, particularly at the highest redshifts, hampers our ability to fully characterize the intergalactic medium during this epoch from observations alone. In this work, we characterize the distributions of mean opacities of the intergalactic medium in simulations from the Cosmic Reionization on Computers (CROC) project. We find that the distribution of mean opacities along sightlines follows a non-trivial distribution that cannot be easily approximated by a known distribution. When comparing the cumulative distribution function of mean opacities measurements in subsamples of sample sizes similar to observational measurements from the literature, we find consistency between CROC and observations at redshifts $z\lesssim 5.7$. However, at higher redshifts ($z\gtrsim5.7$), the cumulative distribution function of mean opacities from CROC is notably narrower than those from observed quasar sightlines implying that observations probe a systematically more opaque intergalactic medium at higher redshifts than the intergalactic medium in CROC boxes at these same redshifts. This is consistent with previous analyses that indicate that the universe is reionized too early in CROC simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

FY21 Progress Report: SRNL Analysis of ICCWR LCM and WAMS data for Corrosion and Cracking

The development of algorithms for machine learning and data analysis for the 3013 Surveillance Program is a collaborative effort by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) and the University of South Carolina (USC). For corrosion detection, Laser Confocal Microscope (LCM) or Wide Area 3D Measurement System (WAMS) data is extracted from large binary files, with software written to convert the data to physical attributes (e.g., height, color and grayscale values; all as functions of a location in a plane projection). A user-friendly Matlab Graphical User Interface (GUI) that reads data from either LCM or WAMS files was developed to integrate input data with software developed for processing and evaluation. The GUI can selectively download binary data, interrogate data attributes, label data, flag significant features, execute Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, output parameters for trained ML algorithms, report ML model accuracy with respect to labeled data, and generate graphical representations for various analyses. Features can be called out by user-specified thresholds, manual labeling or machine learning algorithms when they have been completed. The ability to rapidly label data is important because of the volume of data required for training machine learning algorithms. The GUI has the flexibility to allow addition of improved ML algorithms, methods for data visualization, and statistical computations. Statistical analyses via the GUI include areas of pits within a defined range of pit depths, correlations between Red-Green-Blue (RGB) or grayscale intensity and relative surface height, covariances between values associated with features, and feature histograms. The development of supervised machine learning algorithms, however, has been hindered by a lack of training data. The machine learning algorithms for crack identification are being refined but require improvements to the true positive rate for crack detection. This shortcoming is an artifact of the limited training data currently available, perhaps more so than the structure of the neural networks. At present, the best results are had from a consensus over an ensemble of randomly generated Deep Neural Network (DNN) or Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) algorithms. Although the consensus accuracy method has yielded optimum true positive and true negative rates in excess of 80%, additional validation testing is necessary. In addition to the suite of LCM data that was initially used, and which represents the majority of the work presented in this report, WAMS image data was also reviewed at a preliminary level. The review included a comparison between image resolution and dynamic range for each method. WAMS (ZON file) image data was found to have a pixel pitch of 3.69μm compared to 1 μm for the LCM (vk4 file) data, which implies a lower resolution for the WAMS images. Conversely, the ratio of dynamic range of the WAMS data to the LCM data was approximately 41:20 for height data, suggesting that information from WAMS should more accurately determine the depth of pits. At present, the significance of the greater dynamic range of the WAMS data relative to the LCM data has not yet been evaluated.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Data Mine model for accessible partnerships in data science

Abstract The Data Mine at Purdue University is a pioneering experiential learning community for undergraduate and graduate students of any background to learn data science. The first data‐intensive experience embedded in a large learning community, The Data Mine had nearly 1300 students in academic year (AY) 2022–2023 and nearly 1700 students for AY 2023–2024. The Data Mine embodies data‐infused education, research, and collaboration. Students learn Python, R, SQL, and shell‐scripting, while working on weekly projects within a high‐performance computing (HPC) cluster. In the Corporate Partners cohort, students work on teams of 5–15 students, led by a paid student team leader. Each cohort follows an Agile approach, working on data‐intensive projects provided by industry partners and mentored by company employees. Students develop professional and data skills throughout the academic year, from August through April. Many students return in subsequent years to the program, increasing their tenure with a Corporate Partner. Student teams are inherently interdisciplinary; students from 133 different majors are involved in the program, ranging from new incoming students through PhD level students. These interdisciplinary teams of students bring new perspectives to challenging problems in which data science is a key part of the solution. The interdisciplinary teams foster an environment of synthesis with ideas and solutions. Students come together with different life experiences, different levels of technical skill, but also varying ways they navigate paths to solutions because of the variety of majors represented, resulting in a more creative and robust solution than a traditional data science program. This article is categorized under: Applications of Computational Statistics > Education in Computational Statistics

Betz, Margaret A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Scale bridging damage model for quasi-brittle metals informed with crack evolution statistics

Computationally efficient methods for bridging length scales, from highly resolved micro/meso-scale models that can explicitly model crack growth, to macro-scale continuum models that are more suitable for modeling large parts, have been of interest to researchers for decades. In this work, an improved brittle damage model is presented for the simulation of dynamic fracture in continuum scale quasi-brittle metal components. Crack evolution statistics, including the number, length, and orientation of individual cracks, are extracted from high-fidelity, finite discrete element method (FDEM) simulations and used to generate effective material moduli that reflect the material’s damaged state over time. This strategy allows for the retention of small-scale physical behaviors such as crack growth and coalescence in continuum scale hydrodynamic simulations. However, the high-fidelity simulations required to generate the crack statistics are computationally expensive. Thus, steps were taken to produce a flexible constitutive model to reduce the number of costly high-fidelity simulations needed to produce accurate results. A new stress based degradation criterion is introduced for the degradation of individual material zones. This allows for the development of a heterogeneous damage distribution within the bulk material. Then a flow stress model is added to the hydrodynamic simulation to account for plasticity in quasi-brittle materials. As a result, the effective moduli model can be applied to a larger range of materials. The effective moduli constitutive model is used to simulate beryllium flyer plate experiments. The results from the continuum scale simulations using statistics from a single high-fidelity simulation are found to be in excellent agreement with numerical and experimental velocity interferometer data. The same set of crack statistics are used to extrapolate the results of a higher rate flyer plate case using the effective moduli model. In conclusion, the extension of this model to higher rate cases shows promise for further reducing the number of costly high-fidelity simulations needed to generate crack statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Localization of infrasonic sources via Bayesian back projection

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework is investigated for event-specific localization of infrasonic sources using back projection ray tracing. Direction-of-arrival information from array-based detection analysis is used to initialize a back projection ray path originating from the detecting array location and quantifying propagation characteristics from hypothetical source locations. The Fisher statistic, computed from the array’s beam coherence, is mapped into uncertainty in the launch angles of the ray path. Auxiliary parameters previously introduced for solving the Transport equation to compute geometric spreading along ray paths are used to map uncertainty in the ray launch angles into spatial and temporal uncertainties in the ray path. An atmospheric ensemble approach is applied to account for atmospheric uncertainty, and the relation between uncertainties in the atmospheric state and confidence in estimated localization are evaluated using several ensembles with specified variances. The method is evaluated using a synthetic event in the western United States constructed via forward propagation simulations as well as a single-station, multi-arrival detection from a surface explosion in the western United States. Localization results using this event-specific approach are more accurate and exhibit improved precision than existing Bayesian localization methods that leverage generalized, pre-computed propagation statistics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

1st Computational Physics School for Fusion Research (2019 CPS-FR)

The rising number of applications of machine learning and computational statistics in fusion energy research requires flexibility in adopting a growing variety of tools. The Computational Physics School for Fusion Research (CPS-FR) aims at providing young researchers with critical skill sets to deal with modern fusion energy research challenges. The School aims at covering essentials of: Computational Statistics, Machine Learning, Deep Learning and optimization methods, Parallel Programming and HPC. As the first edition of the CPS-FR just concluded, this report highlights its main results and summarizes its contents.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the fragmentation efficiency of proteins analyzed by MALDI-TOF-TOF tandem mass spectrometry using computational and statistical analyses

Matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight-time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF-TOF) tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) is a rapid technique for identifying intact proteins from unfractionated mixtures by top-down proteomic analysis. MS/MS allows isolation of specific intact protein ions prior to fragmentation, allowing fragment ion attribution to a specific precursor ion. However, the fragmentation efficiency of mature, intact protein ions by MS/MS post-source decay (PSD) varies widely, and the biochemical and structural factors of the protein that contribute to it are poorly understood. With the advent of protein structure prediction algorithms such as Alphafold2, we have wider access to protein structures for which no crystal structure exists. In this work, we use a statistical approach to explore the properties of bacterial proteins that can affect their gas phase dissociation via PSD. We extract various protein properties from Alphafold2 predictions and analyze their effect on fragmentation efficiency. Our results show that the fragmentation efficiency from cleavage of the polypeptide backbone on the C-terminal side of glutamic acid (E) and asparagine (N) residues were nearly equal. In addition, we found that the rearrangement and cleavage on the C-terminal side of aspartic acid (D) residues that result from the aspartic acid effect (AAE) were higher than for E- and N-residues. From residue interaction network analysis, we identified several local centrality measures and discussed their implications regarding the AAE. We also confirmed the selective cleavage of the backbone at D-proline bonds in proteins and further extend it to N-proline bonds. Finally, we note an enhancement of the AAE mechanism when the residue on the C-terminal side of D-, E- and N-residues is glycine. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of this phenomenon. Our study demonstrates the value of using statistical analyses of protein sequences and their predicted structures to better understand the fragmentation of the intact protein ions in the gas phase.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

First-passage time statistics on surfaces of general shape: Surface PDE solvers using Generalized Moving Least Squares (GMLS)

Here, we develop numerical methods for computing statistics of stochastic processes on surfaces of general shape with drift-diffusion dynamics d X t = a (X t ) dt + b(X t ) d W t . We formulate descriptions of Brownian motion and general drift-diffusion processes on surfaces. We consider statistics of the form u (x) = E x [$∫^{τ}_{0}$ g (X t ) dt ] + E x [ f (X τ )] for a domain Ω and the exit stopping time τ = inf t { t >0 | X i Ω}, where f , g are general smooth functions. For computing these statistics, we develop high-order Generalized Moving Least Squares (GMLS) solvers for associated surface PDE boundary-value problems based on Backward- Kolmogorov equations. We focus particularly on the mean First Passage Times (FPTs) given by the case f = 0, g = 1 where u (x) = E x [τ]. We perform studies for a variety of shapes showing our methods converge with high-order accuracy both in capturing the geometry and the surface PDE solutions. We then perform studies showing how statistics are influenced by the surface geometry, drift dynamics, and spatially dependent diffusivities.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty estimation of bifurcated solutions in the Rayleigh–Bénard problem for advanced nuclear reactors applications

Multiphysics models of nuclear reactors frequently comprise nonlinear systems of equations. The nonlinear nature of these models could lead to solution bifurcations, where a small change in a certain parameter, e.g., the thermophysical properties of the coolant, can lead to a sudden change in the system’s behavior. At the point in parameter space where this happens, called a critical point, the Jacobian matrix of the model’s nonlinear operator becomes singular potentially permitting multiple solutions to coexist. In this paper, we perform uncertainty estimation (UE) in a parameter range that includes bifurcated solutions within the context of Rayleigh–Bénard problem. We perform this analysis assuming uncertain temperature difference, and tilt angle for the iterative solution algorithm with a unit Prandtl number (Pr = 1). Also, we perform this analysis under uncertain thermophysical properties for both FLiBe molten salt and liquid sodium as working fluid. We deploy two approaches to compute statistical moments for the resulting distributions of selected flow-field variables. The first approach is the blind computation of the mean and the standard deviation without any consideration of solution bifurcation, while the second approach utilizes k-means clustering to cluster each branch’s solutions together and compute separate statistical moments for each branch. The statistical distributions are obtained by perturbing the selected parameters about nominal values that correspond to a solution on one of the valid branches, and that solution is used as initial guess for the iterative solution algorithm. We found that perturbation of any parameter when its nominal value is close to its critical point always leads to branch jumping, i.e., the iterations converge to a solution on a branch different from the branch of the initial guess. This produces a statistical ensemble comprised of fundamentally different solutions leading to wrong mean values and uncertainty estimates, whereas clustering provides an efficient way to deal with this type of computation. This work is important for developing Gen IV nuclear systems because many of these systems rely on natural convection for cooling especially in accident conditions.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Risk Ratio and Risk Difference Estimation in Case-cohort Studies

Background: In case-cohort studies with binary outcomes, ordinary logistic regression analyses have been widely used because of their computational simplicity. However, the resultant odds ratio estimates cannot be interpreted as relative risk measures unless the event rate is low. The risk ratio and risk difference are more favorable outcome measures that are directly interpreted as effect measures without the rare disease assumption. Methods: We provide pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods for estimating risk ratios and risk differences in analyses of case-cohort studies. These multivariate regression models are fitted by weighting the inverses of sampling probabilities. Also, the precisions of the risk ratio and risk difference estimators can be improved using auxiliary variable information, specifically by adapting the calibrated or estimated weights, which are readily measured on all samples from the whole cohort. Finally, we provide computational code in R (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) that can easily perform these methods. Results: Through numerical analyses of artificially simulated data and the National Wilms Tumor Study data, accurate risk ratio and risk difference estimates were obtained using the pseudo-Poisson and pseudo-normal linear regression methods. Also, using the auxiliary variable information from the whole cohort, precisions of these estimators were markedly improved. Conclusion: The ordinary logistic regression analyses may provide uninterpretable effect measure estimates, and the risk ratio and risk difference estimation methods are effective alternative approaches for case-cohort studies. These methods are especially recommended under situations in which the event rate is not low.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Modeling Meets Machine Learning: What Can We Learn?

Machine learning is increasingly recognized as a promising technology in the biological, biomedical, and behavioral sciences. There can be no argument that this technique is incredibly successful in image recognition with immediate applications in diagnostics including electrophysiology, radiology, or pathology, where we have access to massive amounts of annotated data. However, machine learning often performs poorly in prognosis, especially when dealing with sparse data. This is a field where classical physics-based simulation seems to remain irreplaceable. In this review, we identify areas in the biomedical sciences where machine learning and multiscale modeling can mutually benefit from one another: Machine learning can integrate physics-based knowledge in the form of governing equations, boundary conditions, or constraints to manage ill-posted problems and robustly handle sparse and noisy data; multiscale modeling can integrate machine learn- ing to create surrogate models, identify system dynamics and parameters, analyze sensitivities, and quantify uncertainty to bridge the scales and understand the emergence of function. With a view towards applications in the life sciences, we discuss the state of the art of combining machine learning and multiscale modeling, identify applications and opportunities, raise open questions, and address potential challenges and limitations. We anticipate that it will stimulate discussion within the community of computational mechanics and reach out to other disciplines including mathematics, statistics, computer science, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, systems biology, and precision medicine to join forces towards creating robust and efficient models for biological systems.

machine learning, multiscale modeling, physics-bas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Infrared Fingerprint and Unimolecular Decay Dynamics of the Hydroperoxyalkyl Intermediate (•QOOH) in Cyclopentane Oxidation

A transient carbon-centered hydroperoxyalkyl intermediate (•QOOH) in the oxidation of cyclopentane is identified by IR action spectroscopy with time-resolved unimolecular decay to hydroxyl (OH) radical products that are detected by UV laser-induced fluorescence. Two nearly degenerate •QOOH isomers, β- and γ-QOOH, are generated by H atom abstraction of the cyclopentyl hydroperoxide precursor. Fundamental and first overtone OH stretch transitions and combination bands of •QOOH are observed and compared with anharmonic frequencies computed by second-order vibrational perturbation theory. An OH stretch transition is also observed for a conformer arising from torsion about a low-energy CCOO barrier. Definitive identification of the β-QOOH isomer relies on its significantly lower transition state (TS) barrier to OH products, which results in rapid unimolecular decay and near unity branching to OH products. A benchmarking approach is utilized to compute high-accuracy stationary point energies, most importantly TS barriers, for cyclopentane oxidation (C 5 H 9 O 2 ), building on higher level reference calculations for ethane oxidation (C 2 H 5 O 2 ). The experimental OH product appearance rates are compared with computed statistical microcanonical rates using RRKM theory, including heavy-atom tunneling, thereby validating the computed TS barrier. The results are extended to thermal unimolecular decay rate constants at temperatures and pressures relevant to cyclopentane combustion via master-equation modeling. Furthermore, the various torsional and ring puckering states of the wells and transition states are explicitly considered in these calculations.

Chemical calculations↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing the Reproducibility of Noisy Quantum Circuits

The ability of a quantum computer to reproduce or replicate the results of a quantum circuit is a key concern for verifying and validating applications of quantum computing. Statistical variations in circuit outcomes that arise from ill-characterized fluctuations in device noise may lead to computational errors and irreproducible results. While device characterization offers a direct assessment of noise, an outstanding concern is how such metrics bound the reproducibility of a given quantum circuit. Here, we first directly assess the reproducibility of a noisy quantum circuit, in terms of the Hellinger distance between the computational results, and then we show that device characterization offers an analytic bound on the observed variability. We validate the method using an ensemble of single qubit test circuits, executed on a superconducting transmon processor with well-characterized readout and gate error rates. The resulting description for circuit reproducibility, in terms of a composite device parameter, is confirmed to define an upper bound on the observed Hellinger distance, across the variable test circuits. This predictive correlation between circuit outcomes and device characterization offers an efficient method for assessing the reproducibility of noisy quantum circuits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Inexact iterative numerical linear algebra for neural network-based spectral estimation and rare-event prediction

Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are often not obvious. The leading eigenfunctions of the transition operator are useful for visualization, and they can provide an efficient basis for computing statistics, such as the likelihood and average time of events (predictions). Here, we develop inexact iterative linear algebra methods for computing these eigenfunctions (spectral estimation) and making predictions from a dataset of short trajectories sampled at finite intervals. We demonstrate the methods on a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization and a high-dimensional model of a biomolecular system. Implications for the prediction problem in reinforcement learning are discussed.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Fidelity Active Subspaces for Wind Farm Uncertainty Quantification

Wind plants operate in stochastic environments characterized by complex turbulent flow dynamics and high-dimensional random variables. A key step in uncertainty quantification studies is sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction that can facilitate the development of surrogate models to be used for forward and inverse propagation or optimization under uncertainty. Prior work has shown active subspaces are an effective tool for identifying important directions in the space of stochastic inputs; however, they have only been applied to single-fidelity wind plant models. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of a multi-fidelity active subspace method for analyzing the uncertainty in wind plant power output. The multi-fidelity active subspace estimator offers the promise of increased accuracy in identifying active subspaces as compared to a single-fidelity estimator for the same computational cost, or a reduction in cost for the same accuracy. This makes the study of uncertainty in larger wind plants and with higher fidelity physics tractable. The multi-fidelity active subspace method is applied to gridded and existing wind plant layouts with single and multiple inflow conditions and its performance for surrogate modeling and uncertainty propagation is compared against a single-fidelity active subspace method. This multi-fidelity approach yields substantial computational speedups of 2x - 3.4x across the test cases along with acceptable accuracy in surrogate modeling and computing statistical moments.

active subspace↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗