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At least 19 records

Efficient Calibration of Expensive Computational Models

Accounting for uncertainty when calibrating expensive computational models is a common challenge faced by scientists and engineers. Often Bayesian techniques are adopted to estimate a probability density function over the model parameters given noisy empirical data. The methods used to perform this type of probabilistic calibration are computationally prohibitive in that they require a large number of evaluations of the expensive model. In these cases, surrogate modeling -- that is, using a fast-to-evaluate, lower fidelity stand-in for the original computational model -- may be the only option to alleviate this computational burden. However, the upfront cost of generating training data to build a surrogate model can itself be expensive. As such, it is important to be judicious when selecting training points at which the full-fidelity model is evaluated. Here, an active learning approach is proposed that enables efficient selection of training points using approximate samples of the calibrated parameter probability density function. In this way, the training points can be concentrated in regions where the calibration algorithm requires high model accuracy.

active learning↗

An Inverse Chance-constrained Approach to the Calibration of Robust Models

This paper proposes a strategy to calibrate computational models according to uncertain input-output data. To this end, uncertainty in the data is first quantified by creating adversarial data sets. Samples drawn from such sets are then mapped from the input-output space to the parameter space using an inverse mapping. This mapping minimizes the collective output spread of an ensemble of point predictions while satisfying a set of individual data-matching requirements. The distribution of the resulting parameter points, which often exhibits strong parameter dependencies, is then modeled using sliced-normals. The chance-constrained formulation used to learn this distribution enables the analyst to trade-off a greater likelihood for most of the data against a lower likelihood for some of the data thereby relaxing the conservatism of the calibrated model. This formulation not only neglects the worst-performing quantiles of each adversarial distribution but also eliminates the potentially serious effects that outliers might have on the resulting model. This calibration approach not only has a considerably lower computational cost than the standard forward approach but it also allows for the identification of suitable distribution classes, which in turn yield better calibrated models.

Calibration↗

Calibration of Predictor Models Using Multiple Validation Experiments

This paper presents a framework for calibrating computational models using data from several and possibly dissimilar validation experiments. The offset between model predictions and observations, which might be caused by measurement noise, model-form uncertainty, and numerical error, drives the process by which uncertainty in the models parameters is characterized. The resulting description of uncertainty along with the computational model constitute a predictor model. Two types of predictor models are studied: Interval Predictor Models (IPMs) and Random Predictor Models (RPMs). IPMs use sets to characterize uncertainty, whereas RPMs use random vectors. The propagation of a set through a model makes the response an interval valued function of the state, whereas the propagation of a random vector yields a random process. Optimization-based strategies for calculating both types of predictor models are proposed. Whereas the formulations used to calculate IPMs target solutions leading to the interval value function of minimal spread containing all observations, those for RPMs seek to maximize the models' ability to reproduce the distribution of observations. Regarding RPMs, we choose a structure for the random vector (i.e., the assignment of probability to points in the parameter space) solely dependent on the prediction error. As such, the probabilistic description of uncertainty is not a subjective assignment of belief, nor is it expected to asymptotically converge to a fixed value, but instead it casts the model's ability to reproduce the experimental data. This framework enables evaluating the spread and distribution of the predicted response of target applications depending on the same parameters beyond the validation domain.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Radiometric Modeling and Calibration of the Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS)Ground Based Measurement Experiment

The ultimate remote sensing benefits of the high resolution Infrared radiance spectrometers will be realized with their geostationary satellite implementation in the form of imaging spectrometers. This will enable dynamic features of the atmosphere s thermodynamic fields and pollutant and greenhouse gas constituents to be observed for revolutionary improvements in weather forecasts and more accurate air quality and climate predictions. As an important step toward realizing this application objective, the Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) Engineering Demonstration Unit (EDU) was successfully developed under the NASA New Millennium Program, 2000-2006. The GIFTS-EDU instrument employs three focal plane arrays (FPAs), which gather measurements across the long-wave IR (LWIR), short/mid-wave IR (SMWIR), and visible spectral bands. The GIFTS calibration is achieved using internal blackbody calibration references at ambient (260 K) and hot (286 K) temperatures. In this paper, we introduce a refined calibration technique that utilizes Principle Component (PC) analysis to compensate for instrument distortions and artifacts, therefore, enhancing the absolute calibration accuracy. This method is applied to data collected during the GIFTS Ground Based Measurement (GBM) experiment, together with simultaneous observations by the accurately calibrated AERI (Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer), both simultaneously zenith viewing the sky through the same external scene mirror at ten-minute intervals throughout a cloudless day at Logan Utah on September 13, 2006. The accurately calibrated GIFTS radiances are produced using the first four PC scores in the GIFTS-AERI regression model. Temperature and moisture profiles retrieved from the PC-calibrated GIFTS radiances are verified against radiosonde measurements collected throughout the GIFTS sky measurement period. Using the GIFTS GBM calibration model, we compute the calibrated radiances from data collected during the moon tracking and viewing experiment events. From which, we derive the lunar surface temperature and emissivity associated with the moon viewing measurements.

Tian, Jialin↗

Model Calibration for Cancer Risk Projections According to Uncertain Data

This paper presents forward and inverse formulations for the calibration of computational models according to uncertain data. Uncertainty in the data might be caused by a poor metrology system, measurement noise, missing or uncontrollable input variables, or by the inability to directly measure the inputs and/or outputs of interest. The forward approach performs the calibration in the space of the model’s output thereby requiring repeated model simulations. Conversely, the inverse approach leverages an ensemble of solutions to an inverse problem in order to perform the calibration in the space of the model’s parameters. As such, the computational demands of the inverse approach are considerably lower. These strategies are applied to the calibration of a radiation model that in-forms cancer risk projections for future deep space missions.

uncertainty quantification↗

Probabilistic Calibration of Expensive Models using Efficiently Trained Surrogates

Calibration of computational models in the presence of uncertainty is often cast as a Bayesian inference problem and solved via sampling methods, e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo. When the computational model is expensive, this task becomes intractable due to the large number of samples required to accurately estimate the posterior distribution of the calibration parameters. A popular solution to this problem is to use machine learning to develop a faster-to-evaluate, lower-fidelity substitute for the original model to serve as a surrogate while solving the inference problem. Although considered an offline cost, generating training data to construct this surrogate model can still be an expensive task in practice. An active learning algorithm is presented that focuses training on improving surrogate accuracy specifically in and around the bulk of the posterior distribution, as this is where the model is exercised during calibration. Candidate samples are drawn from families of distributions related to an approximation of the posterior. The sample maximizing predictive variance is then selected for evaluation by the original computational model, yielding a label for the training point. Iterating this approach increases efficiency relative to space filling designs (e.g., Latin hypercube sampling) by avoiding low probability points. Practical considerations are discussed, including the benefits of using a sequential Monte Carlo sampling approach, convergence heuristics, and the importance of both exploration and exploitation given that the true posterior is unknown a priori.

uncertainty quantification↗

Calibration of the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer in the Laboratory

Imaging spectrometry data must be spectrally, radiometrically and geometrically calibrated in order to: 1) derive physical parameters from measured spectral radiance, 2) compare data acquired from different regions and at different times, 3) compare and analyze the imaging spectrometry data with data acquired from other calibrated sensors, and 4) compare and analyze data with results from computer models. The calibration of AVIRIS data is the process by which laboratory characterization data are applied to raw instrument data (digitized number versus spectral channels) to produce quantitative spectra (radiance versus wavelength) for each image pixel in units of spectral radiance. The AVIRIS sensor and calibration process are described by Vane and the application of the calibration data to the raw digital data is described by Green. This calibration process is validated for in-flight performance of the sensor using a rigorous ground-truth campaign. This workshop paper reviews the laboratory characterization data set that is used in the AVIRIS calibration process. The laboratory measurements used to acquire the calibration data are divided into three classes: 1) spectral calibration, 2) radiometric calibration, and 3) spatial calibration.

Green Robert O.↗

Simulations of DSB Yields and Radiation-induced Chromosomal Aberrations in Human Cells Based on the Stochastic Track Structure Induced by HZE Particles

The formation of double‐strand breaks (DSBs) and chromosomal aberrations (CAs) is of great importance in radiation research and, specifically, in space applications. We are presenting a new particle track and DNA damage model, in which the particle stochastic track structure is combined with the random walk (RW) structure of chromosomes in a cell nucleus. The motivation for this effort stems from the fact that the model with the RW chromosomes, NASARTI (NASA radiation track image) previously relied on amorphous track structure, while the stochastic track structure model RITRACKS (Relativistic Ion Tracks) was focused on more microscopic targets than the entire genome. We have combined chromosomes simulated by RWs with stochastic track structure, which uses nanoscopic dose calculations performed with the Monte‐Carlo simulation by RITRACKS in a voxelized space. The new simulations produce the number of DSBs as function of dose and particle fluence for high‐energy particles, including iron, carbon and protons, using voxels of 20 nm dimension. The combined model also calculates yields of radiation‐induced CAs and unrejoined chromosome breaks in normal and repair deficient cells. The joined computational model is calibrated using the relative frequencies and distributions of chromosomal aberrations reported in the literature. The model considers fractionated deposition of energy to approximate dose rates of the space flight environment. The joined model also predicts of the yields and sizes of translocations, dicentrics, rings, and more complex‐type aberrations formed in the G0/G1 cell cycle phase during the first cell division after irradiation. We found that the main advantage of the joined model is our ability to simulate small doses: 0.05‐0.5 Gy. At such low doses, the stochastic track structure proved to be indispensable, as the action of individual delta‐rays becomes more important.

Ponomarev, Artem↗

Simulations of DSB Yields and Radiation-induced Chromosomal Aberrations in Human Cells Based on the Stochastic Track Structure iIduced by HZE Particles

The formation of double‐strand breaks (DSBs) and chromosomal aberrations (CAs) is of great importance in radiation research and, specifically, in space applications. We are presenting a new particle track and DNA damage model, in which the particle stochastic track structure is combined with the random walk (RW) structure of chromosomes in a cell nucleus. The motivation for this effort stems from the fact that the model with the RW chromosomes, NASARTI (NASA radiation track image) previously relied on amorphous track structure, while the stochastic track structure model RITRACKS (Relativistic Ion Tracks) was focused on more microscopic targets than the entire genome. We have combined chromosomes simulated by RWs with stochastic track structure, which uses nanoscopic dose calculations performed with the Monte‐Carlo simulation by RITRACKS in a voxelized space. The new simulations produce the number of DSBs as function of dose and particle fluence for high‐energy particles, including iron, carbon and protons, using voxels of 20 nm dimension. The combined model also calculates yields of radiation‐induced CAs and unrejoined chromosome breaks in normal and repair deficient cells. The joined computational model is calibrated using the relative frequencies and distributions of chromosomal aberrations reported in the literature. The model considers fractionated deposition of energy to approximate dose rates of the space flight environment. The joined model also predicts of the yields and sizes of translocations, dicentrics, rings, and more complex‐type aberrations formed in the G0/G1 cell cycle phase during the first cell division after irradiation. We found that the main advantage of the joined model is our ability to simulate small doses: 0.05‐0.5 Gy. At such low doses, the stochastic track structure proved to be indispensable, as the action of individual delta‐rays becomes more important.

Ponomarev, Artem↗

Simulation of DNA Damage in Human Cells from Space Radiation Using a Physical Model of Stochastic Particle Tracks and Chromosomes

The formation of double-strand breaks (DSBs) and chromosomal aberrations (CAs) is of great importance in radiation research and, specifically, in space applications. We are presenting a recently developed model, in which chromosomes simulated by NASARTI (NASA Radiation Tracks Image) is combined with nanoscopic dose calculations performed with the Monte-Carlo simulation by RITRACKS (Relativistic Ion Tracks) in a voxelized space. The model produces the number of DSBs, as a function of dose for high-energy iron, oxygen, and carbon ions, and He ions. The combined model calculates yields of radiation-induced CAs and unrejoined chromosome breaks in normal and repair deficient cells. The merged computational model is calibrated using the relative frequencies and distributions of chromosomal aberrations reported in the literature. The model considers fractionated deposition of energy to approximate dose rates of the space flight environment. The merged model also predicts of the yields and sizes of translocations, dicentrics, rings, and more complex-type aberrations formed in the G0/G1 cell cycle phase during the first cell division after irradiation.

Ponomarev, Artem↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-32920-DND

In June 2019, a full-scale crash test of a Fokker F28 Fellowship aircraft will be conducted at NASA Langley Research Center?s Landing and Impact Research (LandIR) Facility. The F28 is a high-performance twin-turbo fan narrow-body aircraft with seating in a 3+2 configuration. The MK4000 variant, used in this test, is capable of carrying up to 85 passengers on medium range routes. The F28 was first type certified by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in 1969 and now the majority of the F28 fleet has retired from service in the United States. In 2016, the FAA and NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) signed an interagency agreement for conducting a research program to obtain test data that will support the development of airframe level crash requirements for transport category airplanes [1]. The objectives of the full-scale crash test can be divided into six categories: (1) To compare and contrast responses in identical aircraft undergoing vertical only to combined vertical and horizontal loading conditions, (2) To examine the effects of horizontal loading on aircraft structure during a crash event, (3) To generate data for the use in calibration of computer modelling efforts, (4) To generate data from onboard Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) for the evaluation of injury, (5) To obtain data from experimental seats, and (6) To obtain data from new and novel ATD designs including Warrior Injury Assessment MANikin (WIAMan) [2], Test device for Human Occupant Response (THOR), and other newly developed child ATDs. The focus of this presentation will be to document finite element model development of the full-scale F28 aircraft and to present preliminary test-analysis predictions. NASA obtained the full-scale F28 aircraft, plus three fuselage sections and two sets of wings with funding through the NASA Aviation Safety Program in 1998. In addition to the hardware, NASA purchased a full NASTRAN model of the airframe that had been developed by the Dutch manufacturer, Fokker. Beginning in 2016, the NASTRAN model was converted to LS-DYNA? [4, 5] format and modified by combining parts, adding missing parts of internal structure, and including ballast for loading weights, etc. It contains: 89,223 nodes; 24,065 beam elements; 55,404 shell elements; 29,044 solid elements; 740 parts; 80 material definitions; and, 46 Constrained Nodal Rigid Bodies (CNRBs). The aircraft model will be executed in LSDYNA to simulate the test article impact onto a 2-ft.-high bed of soil under combined velocity conditions of 70-ft/s forward and 30-ft/s vertical velocity. Pre-test simulation predictions will be generated and correlated with test data.

Karen E Jackson↗

Planar Doppler Velocimetry for Large-Scale Wind Tunnel Testing

Recently, Planar Doppler Velocimetry (PDV) has been shown by several laboratories to offer an attractive means for measuring three-dimensional velocity vectors everywhere in a light sheet placed in a flow. Unlike other optical means of measuring flow velocities, PDV is particularly attractive for use in large wind tunnels where distances to the sample region may be several meters, because it does not require the spatial resolution and tracking of individual scattering particles or the alignment of crossed beams at large distances. To date, demonstrations of PDV have been made either in low speed flows without quantitative comparison to other measurements, or in supersonic flows where the Doppler shift is large and its measurement is relatively insensitive to instrumental errors. Moreover, most reported applications have relied on the use of continuous-wave lasers, which limit the measurement to time-averaged velocity fields. This work summarizes the results of two previous studies of PDV in which the use of pulsed lasers to obtain instantaneous velocity vector fields is evaluated. The objective has been to quantitatively define and demonstrate PDV capabilities for applications in large-scale wind tunnels that are intended primarily for the production testing of subsonic aircraft. For such applications, the adequate resolution of low-speed flow fields requires accurate measurements of small Doppler shifts that are obtained at distances of several meters from the sample region. The use of pulsed lasers provides the unique capability to obtain not only time-averaged fields, but also their statistical fluctuation amplitudes and the spatial excursions of unsteady flow regions such as wakes and separations. To accomplish the objectives indicated, the PDV measurement process is first modeled and its performance evaluated computationally. The noise sources considered include those related to the optical and electronic properties of Charge-Coupled Device (CCD) arrays and to speckle effects associated with coherent illumination from pulsed lasers. The signal noise estimates are incorporated into the PDV signal analysis process and combined with computed scattering signals using a Mie scattering theory for polydisperse smoke particles. The relevant parameters incorporate a range of practical aerodynamic test conditions and facility sizes. The results define the optimum instrument configurations, show that the expected signal levels from a practical PDV system are sufficiently large to allow its useful application in large facilities, and show that the expected velocity measurement uncertainties are small compared to the mean velocities of interest for most subsonic, large-scale wind tunnel testing. Experimental studies using several experimental bench-top setups are then described that validate the physics of the PDV model and to calibrate its computed results. The validated model allows estimates of the uncertainties of PDV measurements and a complete definition of the PDV capabilities to be made with sufficient confidence to decide the viability of PDV for large-scale wind tunnel applications.

McKenzie, Robert L.↗

Numerical Thermal Model of a 30-cm NSTAR Ion Thruster

A thermal computer model of the NSTAR (Nasa Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Applications Readiness) xenon ion thruster has been produced using a lumped parameter thermal nodal network scheme. This model contains 104 nodes on the thruster and was implemented using SINDA (Systems Improved Numerical Differencing Analyzer) and TRASYS (Thermal Radiation Analyzer System) on various UNIX workstations. The model includes radiation and conduction heat transfer, the effect of plasma interaction on the thruster, and an account for finely perforated surfaces. The model was developed in conjunction with an NSTAR thruster outfitted with approximately 20 thermocouples for thermal testing at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The results of these experiments were used to calibrate and confirm the computer model first without and then with the plasma interaction. The calibrated model was able to predict discharge chamber temperatures to within 10 C of measured temperatures. To demonstrate the ability of the model under various circumstances the heat flux was examined for a thruster operating in the environment of space.

VanNoord, Jon↗

ERBE - Assessment of measurement accuracy

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) represents a continuing effort to estimate the solar incident and earth reflected and emitted radiance from spacecraft measurements. The development of accurate and stable sensors and calibration sources is mandatory but not sufficient to attain and validate required measurement accuracies. It is also necessary to develop and experimentally test computational models of the calibration and measurement processes to account for environmental differences between (static) calibrations and (dynamic) measurements of the earth radiant exitance that varies with wavelength, position, direction, and time.

Spiers, R. B., Jr.↗

Experimental and analytical study of cryogenic propellant boiloff to develop and verify alternate pressurization concepts for Space Shuttle external tank using a scaled down tank

Self pressurization by propellant boiloff is experimentally studied as an alternate pressurization concept for the Space Shuttle external tank (ET). The experimental setup used in the study is an open flow system which is composed of a variable area test tank and a recovery tank. The vacuum jacketed test tank is geometrically similar to the external LOx tank for the Space Shuttle. It is equipped with instrumentation to measure the temperature and pressure histories within the liquid and vapor, and viewports to accommodate visual observations and Laser-Doppler Anemometry measurements of fluid velocities. A set of experiments were conducted using liquid Nitrogen to determine the temperature stratification in the liquid and vapor, and pressure histories of the vapor during sudden and continuous depressurization for various different boundary and initial conditions. The study also includes the development and calibration of a computer model to simulate the experiments. This model is a one-dimensional, multi-node type which assumes the liquid and the vapor to be under non-equilibrium conditions during the depressurization. It has been tested for a limited number of cases. The preliminary results indicate that the accuracy of the simulations is determined by the accuracy of the heat transfer coefficients for the vapor and the liquid at the interface which are taken to be the calibration parameters in the present model.

Akyuzlu, K. M.↗

Study of short haul high-density V/STOL transportation systems. Volume 2: Appendices

Essential supporting data to the short haul transportation study are presented. The specific appendices are arena characteristics, aerospace transportation analysis computer program, economics, model calibration, STOLport siting and services path selection, STOL schedule definition, tabulated California corridor results, and tabulated Midwest arena results.

Solomon, H. L.↗

Hazardous Environment Robotics

Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) developed video overlay calibration and demonstration techniques for ground-based telerobotics. Through a technology sharing agreement with JPL, Deneb Robotics added this as an option to its robotics software, TELEGRIP. The software is used for remotely operating robots in nuclear and hazardous environments in industries including automotive and medical. The option allows the operator to utilize video to calibrate 3-D computer models with the actual environment, and thus plan and optimize robot trajectories before the program is automatically generated.

Source record↗