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A study of examiner accuracy in cartridge case comparisons. Part 2: Examiner use of the AFTE range of conclusions
Here, this report describes an analysis of how examiners used the Association of Firearm and Toolmark Examiners (AFTE) Range of Conclusions in a controlled study undertaken to estimate examiner error rates in comparing cartridge cases. Results of the error rate analysis are reported in [1]; this paper focuses on a broader analysis of how the entire collection of classification categories, especially those in the Inconclusive range, were used by the participating examiners. Volunteer active examiners with AFTE membership or working in laboratories that participate in Association of Crime Laboratory Directors (ASCLD) were provided with 15 sets of three known and one questioned cartridge cases fired from a collection of 25 new Ruger SR9 handguns. Remington 9-mm Luger (manufacturer designation L9MM3) ammunition was used and comparison sets were made up of cartridge cases fired within 100 cartridges of each other for each gun. Examiners were provided with a background survey, an answer sheet allowing for the AFTE Range of Conclusions, and return shipping materials. The participating examiners were provided with both same-source and different-source comparison sets allowing the study to assess both error rates. Responses were received from 218 participating examiners. The overall rate of false-negatives was estimated as 0.367 % from comparisons known to be from the same firearm but reported as eliminations. The overall rate of false-positives was estimated as 1.01 % from comparisons known to be from different firearms but reported as identifications. In the case of true different-source examinations, it is clear that the three Inconclusive categories and the Elimination category are not used consistently by all examiners. We identify five different apparent patterns of use of the AFTE Range of Conclusions scale, and discuss possible reasons for and implications of these differences.
The staged z-pinch as a potential high gain fusion energy source: An independent review, a negative conclusion
Previously published calculations predict that the “staged z-pinch” (SZP) can achieve 400 MJ of fusion yield on a Z-class machine. The SZP is touted to need no external preheat mechanism and no external pre-magnetization method. Instead, it is claimed that the imploding liner can adequately “shock preheat” the fuel and magnetic field diffusion through the liner can adequately magnetize the fuel. Here in this paper, we analyze a number of published SZP calculations and demonstrate that the calculations have major errors—the computer code used to do the calculations does not appear to be accurately solving the physical model it is intended to solve. A variety of independent analyses lead to this conclusion. This conclusion is confirmed by detailed one-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) calculations conducted on different computer codes using a variety of proposed SZP operating parameters. Although using parameters similar or identical to the published calculations, our MHD calculations do not reach fusion conditions; there is no conceivable modification of the parameters that would lead to high-gain fusion conditions using these other codes. Our analyses and a review of the magnetized target parameter space leads to further conclusion that the SZP should not be considered to be a potential high-gain fusion source.
Shuttle near-field environmental impacts - Conclusions and observations for launching at other locations
Near field and far field environmental monitoring activities extending from the first launch of the Space Shuttle at the Kennedy Space Center have provided a database from which conclusions can now be drawn for short term, acute effects of launch and, to a lesser degree, long term cumulative effects on the natural environment. Data for the first 15 launches of the Space Shuttle from Kennedy Space Center Pad 39A are analyzed for statistical significance and reduced to graphical presentations of individual and collective disposition isopleths, summarization of observed environmental impacts (e.g., vegetation damage, fish kills), and supporting data from specialized experiments and laboratory analyses. Conclusions are drawn with regard to the near field environment at Pad A, the effects on the lagoonal complex, and the relationships of these data and conclusions to upcoming operations at Complex 39 Pad B where the environment is significantly different. The paper concludes with a subjective evaluation of the likely impacts at Vandenberg Space Launch Complex 6 for the first Shuttle launch next year.
Assessment of HRA method predictions against operating crew performance: Part III: Conclusions and achievements
This is the last in a series of three papers documenting two large-scale human reliability analysis (HRA) empirical studies – the International HRA Empirical Study and the US HRA Empirical Study. The goal of the two studies was to develop an empirically-based understanding of the performance, strengths, and weaknesses of HRA methods by comparing HRA method predictions against actual operator performance in simulated accident scenarios on nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators. This paper first addresses areas where there is convergence between the two studies and where differences lie. Then it summarizes the combined insights and conclusions, including key findings on HRA in general through lessons learned about the HRA methods assessed in the studies and specific recommendations for improving guidance, practice and methods. Then it discusses the relevance and usefulness of simulator data for HRA in general. Finally, it presents the key achievements and overall conclusions of the two studies taken together.
No Conclusive Evidence for Transits of Proxima b in MOST Photometry
The analysis of Proxima Centauri’s radial velocities recently led Anglada-Escudé et al. to claim the presence of a low-mass planet orbiting the Sun’s nearest star once every 11.2 days. Although the a priori probability that Proxima b transits its parent star is just 1.5%, the potential impact of such a discovery would be considerable. Independent of recent radial velocity efforts, we observed Proxima Centauri for 12.5 days in 2014 and 31 days in 2015 with the Microwave and Oscillations of Stars space telescope. We report here that we cannot make a compelling case that Proxima b transits in our precise photometric time series. Imposing an informative prior on the period and phase, we do detect a candidate signal with the expected depth. However, perturbing the phase prior across 100 evenly spaced intervals reveals one strong false positive and one weaker instance. We estimate a false-positive rate of at least a few percent and a much higher false-negative rate of 20%–40%, likely caused by the very high flare rate of Proxima Centauri. Comparing our candidate signal to HATSouth ground-based photometry reveals that the signal is somewhat, but not conclusively, disfavored (1 σ –2 σ ), leading us to argue that the signal is most likely spurious. We expect that infrared photometric follow-up could more conclusively test the existence of this candidate signal, owing to the suppression of flare activity and the impressive infrared brightness of the parent star.
Conclusions
Conclusions are presented according to general areas of technology with some specific examples of research and technology needs identified. These conclusions provide a base for the future development of detailed program plans and identify research needs that are not being given attention or are not being supported at a sufficient level. Emphasis is placed on hydrogen production and use.
Conclusions and Recommendations
This chapter provides a brief wrap-up of the task group report and focuses on the overall conclusions and recommendations for future work for the CAWAPI and VFE-2 facets beyond the task group. The overall conclusion is that the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of CFD solvers has been improved in predicting the flow-physics of vortex-dominated flows during the work of the task group, by having flight and wind-tunnel data available for comparison. Moreover, like all good scientific studies, this task group has identified flight conditions on the F-16XL airplane or wind-tunnel test conditions for a specific leading-edge radius on the 65 delta-wing model where the TRL still needs to be increased.
Conclusive evidence of abrupt coagulation inside the void during cyclic nanoparticle formation in reactive plasma
In this letter, we present scanning electron microscopy (SEM) results that confirm in a direct way our earlier explanation of an abrupt coagulation event as the cause for the void hiccup. In a recent paper, we reported on the fast and interrupted expansion of voids in a reactive dusty argon–acetylene plasma. The voids appeared one after the other, each showing a peculiar, though reproducible, behavior of successive periods of fast expansion, abrupt contraction, and continued expansion. The abrupt contraction was termed “hiccup” and was related to collective coagulation of a new generation of nanoparticles growing in the void using relatively indirect methods: electron density measurements and optical emission spectroscopy. In this letter, we present conclusive evidence using SEM of particles collected at different moments in time spanning several growth cycles, which enables us to follow the nanoparticle formation process in great detail.
ECO: the Evidence and Conclusion Ontology, an update for 2022
The Evidence and Conclusion Ontology (ECO) is a community resource that provides an ontology of terms used to capture the type of evidence that supports biomedical annotations and assertions. Consistent capture of evidence information with ECO allows tracking of annotation provenance, establishment of quality control measures, and evidence-based data mining. ECO is in use by dozens of data repositories and resources with both specific and general areas of focus. ECO is continually being expanded and enhanced in response to user requests as well as our aim to adhere to community best-practices for ontology development. The ECO support team engages in multiple collaborations with other ontologies and annotating groups. Here we report on recent updates to the ECO ontology itself as well as associated resources that are available through this project. ECO project products are freely available for download from the project website (https://evidenceontology.org/) and GitHub (https://github.com/evidenceontology/evidenceontology). ECO is released into the public domain under a CC0 1.0 Universal license.
ECO, the Evidence & Conclusion Ontology: community standard for evidence information
The Evidence and Conclusion Ontology (ECO) contains terms (classes) that describe types of evidence and assertion methods. ECO terms are used in the process of biocuration to capture the evidence that supports biological assertions (e.g. gene product X has function Y as supported by evidence Z). Capture of this information allows tracking of annotation provenance, establishment of quality control measures and query of evidence. ECO contains over 1500 terms and is in use by many leading biological resources including the Gene Ontology, UniProt and several model organism databases. ECO is continually being expanded and revised based on the needs of the biocuration community.
Evaluation of thin wall spacecraft electrical wiring. Volume II - Summary and conclusions Final report
Performance characteristics environmentally determined for spacecraft, thin wall wiring - summary and conclusions
Conclusions and recommendations
Conclusions and recommendations are presented for an analysis of the total energy situation; the effect of the energy problem on air transportation; and hydrogen fuel for aircraft. Properties and production costs of fuels, future prediction for energy and transportation, and economic aspects of hydrogen production are appended.
Some conclusions regarding the aeroelastic stability of hingeless helicopter blades in hover and in forward flight
In this paper results and conclusions obtained from the study of the aeroelastic instability of hingeless helicopter blades are presented. First, the large amplitude coupled flap-lag equations of motion of a hingeless elastic helicopter blade are solved using an asymptotic expansion procedure in multiple time scales. Both hover and forward flight cases are considered. Stability boundaries and amplitudes of nonlinear response are obtained. From these, the importance of the nonlinear coupling and the effect of the periodic coefficients is determined. Next, using a system of linearized coupled flap-lag-pitch equations in hover, various divergence mechanisms for hingeless blades are shown. Finally, the flutter boundaries for coupled flap-lag-pitch are obtained. The effect of the torsional degree of freedom on the flap-lag type of instability is investigated. Similarly the effect of lag on the flap-pitch type of instability is considered. In addition, the effect of various blade parameters on the stability boundaries is shown.
An investigation of wing buffeting response at subsonic and transonic speeds: Phase 1: F-111A flight data analysis. Volume 1: Summary of technical approach, results and conclusions
The structural response to aerodynamic buffet during moderate to high-g maneuvers at subsonic and transonic speeds was investigated. The investigation is reported in three volumes. This volume presents a summary of the investigation with a complete description of the technical approach, description of the aircraft, its instrumentation, the data reduction procedures, results and conclusion.
Planning for airport access: An analysis of the San Francisco Bay area. Introduction and conclusions
The problems of airport access are examined and recommendations are made based on current transportation availability, public costs, and future transportation demand. Major conclusions presented include: (1) access must be considered in the contex of the overall urban transportation system, (2) expensive and inflexible travel modes designed primarily for airport access are not justifiable, (3) VTOL and STOL are presently too expensive for large-scale commercial use, and (4) the automobile will continue to be the predominant access mode in the future.
Conference on Complex Turbulent Flows: Comparison of Computation and Experiment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, September 14-18, 1981, Proceedings. Volume 2 - Taxonomies, reporters' summaries, evaluation, and conclusions
Computational techniques for simulating turbulent flows were explored, together with the results of experimental investigations. Particular attention was devoted to the possibility of defining a universal closure model, applicable for all turbulence situations; however, conclusions were drawn that zonal models, describing localized structures, were the most promising techniques to date. The taxonomy of turbulent flows was summarized, as were algebraic, differential, integral, and partial differential methods for numerical depiction of turbulent flows. Numerous comparisons of theoretically predicted and experimentally obtained data for wall pressure distributions, velocity profiles, turbulent kinetic energy profiles, Reynolds shear stress profiles, and flows around transonic airfoils were presented. Simplifying techniques for reducing the necessary computational time for modeling complex flowfields were surveyed, together with the industrial requirements and applications of computational fluid dynamics techniques.
Electron attachment in F2 - Conclusive demonstration of nonresonant, s-wave coupling in the limit of zero electron energy
Dissociative electron attachment to F2 has been observed in the energy range 0-140 meV, at a resolution of 6 meV (full width at half maximum). Results show conclusively a sharp, resolution-limited threshold behavior consistent with an s-wave cross section varying as sq rt of epsilon. Two accurate theoretical calculations predict only p-wave behavior varying as the sq rt of epsilon. Several nonadiabatic coupling effects leading to s-wave behavior are outlined.