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Monte Carlo methods for conditional expectation for nonlinear dynamic systems with acceptable computing time expenditure
This technical report is in submission of completion of the Level 3 milestone number M3AT24OR1101032, titled “Complete Degradation of Be 2 C at conditions expected in molten salt environments,” for the AT-24OR110103 “Beryllium Carbide as moderator for MSRs—ORNL” WBS number 2.04.11.01 within the larger Advanced Reactor Technologies program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This effort is an initial study of the viability of Be 2 C as a future neutron moderator for molten salt reactors and other high-temperature reactors. The research was awarded funding in September 2022, and this Level 2 milestone presents the work that completed by the end of July 2023. This work is a collaboration between Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Michigan. This report discusses the status of this effort and planned work before the final reporting.
This technical report is in submission of completion of the Level 4 milestone number M4AT-25OR1101021, titled “Degradation of Be 2 C at conditions expected in molten salt environments”, for the AT-25OR110102 “Beryllium Carbide as moderator for MSRs—ORNL” WBS number 2.04.11.01 within the larger Advanced Reactor Technologies program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This effort is an initial study of the viability of Be 2 C as a future neutron moderator for molten salt reactors and other high-temperature reactors. The research was awarded funding in September 2022, and this Level 4 milestone presents the work that completed by the end of July 2025. This work is a collaboration between Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Michigan.
Abstract We explore the potential of using a non‐parametric statistical method called Alternating Conditional Expectations, ACE, to quantify functional relationships in biogeosciences. Here, ACE is used to quantify the non‐linear and multi‐faceted responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to a set of biophysical forcings, when the shapes of those response surfaces are unknown. We evaluated the statistical method over two contrasting ecosystems and two contrasting time steps. One case involved quantifying the biophysical controls of water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes over a semi‐arid oak savanna using daily integrated fluxes. The other case evaluated the responses of CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ) flux measurements to a set of biophysical forcings at a restored tidal wetland using thirty‐minute averages. The statistical model, based on 4 independent variables, explained up over 90% of the variation in daily integrated flux densities of water vapor and net carbon dioxide exchange at the savanna site. This fit was defined by distinct non‐linear responses to such drivers as gross primary production, photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. At the tidal wetland site, we evaluated net carbon dioxide and methane fluxes with short‐term measurements to capture the influence of rising and falling tides and seasonality in biological activity. The statistical model defined the shape of the forcing of fluxes due to the roles of carbon exudates, water table depth, oxygen level in the water column, temperature and vegetation status. The statistical fits of the greenhouse gas fluxes were less precise than the savanna case. The fetch varies on a run‐to‐run basis as it is comprised of a heterogeneous mosaic of open water and vegetation. Furthermore, it is difficult to monitor the environmental conditions of the archaea and bacteria in the sediments that produce methane and carbon dioxide.
Expected enhancement of the N III emission-line spectrum by the Bowen He II to O III to N III resonant photoexcitation process is computed using a six-configuration model. Preliminary comparisons with available solar and nebular observations indicate that the process may play only a small role, although photoexcitation quenching of the N III and O III far-infrared fine-structure lines is noted as a possibly important mechanism. Some features are discussed in connection with the nebular emission at 1750 A, which is suggested as an indicator of excitation class for planetary nebulae.
The Pantex Plant Ogallala Aquifer and Perched Groundwater Contingency Plan has been developed in accordance with the requirements identified in the: • Interagency Agreement for the Pantex Superfund Site, Article 8.5 Work to be Performed, • Compliance Plan Provision of Hazardous Waste Permit No. 50284, and • Record of Decision for Groundwater, Soil, and Associated Media, Pantex Plant. A Long‐Term Monitoring System Design has been designed to monitor conditions in the perched groundwater including changes in the perched aquifer as a result of implementing the response actions. Monitoring is required for verifying the effectiveness of perched groundwater response actions (i.e., conditions in the perched aquifer are being affected as intended) and for confirming that the perched aquifer and Ogallala Aquifer characterization as defined in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Facility Investigation Report and the Corrective Measure Studies/Feasibility Study remains accurate. If monitoring results obtained through the monitoring network identify an unexpected condition or deviation, contingent actions will be considered and implemented as necessary to ensure continued protection of the Ogallala Aquifer and human health and the environment. Potential deviations to expected technology performance may be encountered for each of the four primary response actions that compose the selected remedy for perched groundwater; Playa 1 Pump and Treat System, Southeast Area Pump and Treat System, Southeast Area In‐Situ Bioremediation System (comprised of the Southeast In‐Situ Bioremediation System Original System, Southeast Area In‐Situ Bioremediation System Extension System, Offsite In‐Situ Bioremediation System, Perchlorate/Chromium ISB, Northeast ISB and County Road 8 ISB), and Zone 11 In‐Situ Bioremediation System. Monitoring will also be conducted to determine if there are deviations to the expected characterization, e.g., contaminants not expected as a result of the RCRA Facility Investigation characterization. Deviations to expected conditions in the Ogallala Aquifer could also be encountered if the response actions in the perched groundwater are not performing as expected, i.e., preventing contaminants from migrating to the Ogallala Aquifer. Currently, Pantex has begun investigation of detections of high explosives above groundwater protection standards in wells on the Texas Tech University property and a plume that is moving to the northeast from that area. Due to those detections, this Plan recognizes the fact that future detections in the Ogallala will be focused on first‐ time detections of analytes. After a remedy is determined, this Plan will require modification to address-deviations and contingent actions. This Plan was developed to identify the contingent actions necessary to mitigate impacts resulting from deviations to site conditions or response action performance. The Plan defines the environmental problem being addressed by the response actions, clarifies the expected conditions and objectives of the response actions, and identifies the potential deviations to the response actions (due to site conditions or technology performance) that could be encountered. The deviations were evaluated to determine the likelihood of occurrence, potential impact, and time to respond to avoid impact. The Plan also identifies the monitoring outlined in the Long‐Term Monitoring System Design Report (Consolidated Nuclear Security, 2024) and Sampling Analysis Plan (PanTeXas Deterrence, 2024) that will be used to detect the deviations. Lastly, the Plan specifies the contingent actions that could be implemented in response to the deviations. Because each response focuses on a discrete portion of the perched aquifer and contaminant plume, each response action has a different set of expected conditions, and therefore differing impacts from deviations to the site and technology expectations. As a result, the contingent actions are identified for each response action and potential deviation including specific constituents, location, and conditions. If deviations are encountered that impact the ability of the response action to meet performance objectives, the contingent actions will be focused on ensuring the response action can meet the performance objective. Contingent actions may be implemented as interim actions (ISMs/removal actions) in accordance with the Record of Decision, Interagency Agreement, and Hazardous Waste Permit‐50284, if warranted by the specific circumstances. For deviations to site characterization expected conditions, the contingent action will focus on determination of the source of the deviation, determination of the appropriate response, and evaluation of additional work to be completed. However, if the deviation to characterization impacts the performance of the response action, the contingent action will again focus on ensuring performance objectives can be met. Early source term removals and cleanup actions have been implemented to protect the Ogallala Aquifer. Because of these actions and based on modeling results, the expected conditions in the Ogallala Aquifer are that constituents of concern will not be detected above the Groundwater Protection Standards (GWPSs) nor will they reach potential points of exposure above the GWPS. The primary deviation of concern for the Ogallala is if constituents are detected in the Ogallala Aquifer near or above GWPSs. If it occurs, this change in expected conditions would require further evaluation of site and contaminant characteristics to determine an appropriate course of action. The evaluation would include additional monitoring, source identification, implementation of interim protective measures (if necessary), and delineation of extent. These evaluations are necessary to determine an appropriate response action for the Ogallala. The primary goal of the Plan is to provide for the continued protection of the Ogallala Aquifer and the health of its consumers. In recognition, this Plan presents a flexible and rational approach for making future decisions associated with confirming the change in perched and Ogallala aquifer conditions and identifying a response (technical activities, changes to response actions, regulatory oversight, and public involvement).
Ply-by-ply in situ processes involving automated heated head deposition are being developed for fabrication of high performance, high temperature composite structures from low volatile content polymer matrices. This technology requires (1) dry carbon fiber towpreg, (2) consolidation of towpreg to quality, placement-grade unidirectional ribbon or tape, and (3) rapid, in situ, accurate, ply-by-ply robotic placement and consolidation of this material to fabricate a composite structure. In this study, the physical properties of a candidate thermoplastic ribbon, PIXA/IM7, were evaluated and screened for suitability in robotic placement. Specifically, towpreg was prepared from PIXA powder. Various conditions (temperatures) were used to convert the powder-coated towpreg to ribbons with varying degrees of processability. Ribbon within preset specifications was fabricated at 3 temperatures: 390, 400 and 410 C. Ribbon was also produced out-of-spec by purposely overheating the material to a processing temperature of 450 C. Automated placement equipment at Cincinnati Milacron and NASA Langley was used to fabricate laminates from these experimental ribbons. Ribbons were placed at 405 and 450 C by both sets of equipment. Double cantilever beam and wedge peel tests were used to determine the quality of the laminates and, especially, the interlaminar bond formed during the placement process. Ribbon made under conditions expected to be non-optimal (overheated) resulted in poor placeability and composites with weak interlaminar bond strengths, regardless of placement conditions. Ribbon made under conditions expected to be ideal showed good processability and produced well-consolidated laminates. Results were consistent from machine to machine and demonstrated the importance of ribbon quality in heated-head placement of dry material forms. Preliminary screening criteria for the development and evaluation of ribbon from new matrix materials were validated.
This work introduces an approach to estimate the complexity of a low-altitude air traffic scenario involving multiple UASs using mathematical programming. Given a set of multi-point UAS flight trajectories, vehicle dynamics, and a conflict resolution algorithm, an abstract model is developed such that it can be solved quickly using a mathematical programming optimization software without running high-fidelity simulations that can be computationally expensive and may not suit real-time apA quick and accurate assessment of complexity for a given traffic scenario can help plan and schedule flights to alleviate traffic bottleneck and mitigate operation risks, especially for unmanned aerial system traffic management where high traffic density or complexity is expected. This work introduces a traffic scenario complexity metric that was constructed based on the number of potential conflicts weighted by the conflict resolution cost associated. The cost associated with a conflict is calculated based on the corresponding conflict resolution maneuvers. To obtain the conflict resolution maneuvers, a MILP-based optimization was formulated with the vehicle model and conflict management parameters incorporated. To evaluate the complexity metrics, an approach of using measurements from high-fidelity simulations was proposed. The scenario complexity measurements for 920 random-generated scenarios were obtained through high-fidelity simulations and treated as the ground truth. Two statistics methods: Pearson and Alternative Conditional Expectations were applied for analysis. The results showed that the number of flights has low correlation with the scenario complexity according to the correlation coefficients calculated by both methods. The Alternative Conditional Expectations method shows that the proposed scenario complexity metric has better correlation with the ground truth than the number of potential conflicts.plications. In the abstract model, each vehicle is represented by a time-varied vector associated with position, speed, and heading information. The total extra distance that aircraft need to divert from their original routes to avoid collisions is computed and used to setup a quadratic programming formula. The metrics including the number of conflicts and extra distances travelled by all vehicles are then utilized to estimate the complexity of a given UAS flight scenario. Results and verification against high-fidelity simulations will be provided in the final draft.
The MESSENGER (Mercury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry, and Ranging) spacecraft, planned for launch in March 2004, will perform two flybys of Mercury before entering a year-long orbit of the planet in September 2009. The mission will provide opportunities for detailed characterization of the surface, interior, atmosphere, and magnetosphere of the closest planet to the Sun. The NASA Glenn Research Center and the MESSENGER spacecraft integrator, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, have partnered under a Space Act Agreement to characterize a variety of critical components and materials under simulated conditions expected near Mercury. Glenn's Vacuum Facility 6, which is equipped with a solar simulator, can simulate the vacuum and high solar radiation anticipated in Mercury orbit. The MESSENGER test hardware includes a variety of materials and components that are being characterized during the Tank 6 vacuum tests, where the hardware will be exposed to up to 11 suns insolation, simulating conditions expected in Mercury orbit. In 2002, ten solar vacuum tests were conducted, including beginning of life, end of life, backside exposure, and solar panel thermal shock cycling tests. Components tested include candidate solar array panels, sensors, thermal shielding materials, and communication devices. As an example, for the solar panel thermal shock cycling test, two candidate solar array panels were suspended on a lift mechanism that lowered the panels into a liquid-nitrogen-cooled box. After reaching -140 C, the panels were then lifted out of the box and exposed to the equivalent of 6 suns (8.1 kilowatts per square meters). After five cold soak/heating cycles were completed successfully, there was no apparent degradation in panel performance. An anticipated 100-hr thermal shield life test is planned for autumn, followed by solar panel flight qualification tests in winter. Glenn's ongoing support to the MESSENGER program has been instrumental in identifying design solutions and validating thermal performance models under a very aggressive development schedule. The test data have assisted Johns Hopkins engineers in selecting a flight solar array vendor and a thermal shield design. MESSENGER is one in a series of missions in NASA's Discovery Program. Infrared thermography provides data on the thermal gradients in the MESSENGER components during high solar insolation vacuum testing.
Innovative thin film multilayer metal/ceramic barrier coatings have been developed by Argonne National Laboratory to protect fuel cladding against different phenomena that can be encountered under the harsh operating conditions of advanced nuclear reactors. One phenomenon is Fuel-Cladding Chemical Interaction (FCCI), which can represent a challenge to the performance of steel-clad metallic fuels in sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), especially when operating to high burnups at elevated cladding temperatures, and long fuel residence time. Another phenomenon is the corrosion of zirconium-based cladding under prototypic boiling water reactor (BWR) conditions and associated cladding during off normal conditions, including loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). This work provides details of the development and testing of a thin film (few microns) multilayer metal/ceramic (CrY/Y 2 O 3 ) coatings on steel cladding and its performance against FCCI. The coating architecture evolved through systematic mechanical testing, radiation tolerance assessments, and high-temperature diffusion studies from a preliminary multilayer concept to an optimized high-performance design. The optimized structure leverages stoichiometric Y 2 O 3 for its exceptional radiation stability, chemical inertness, and ultra-low fission product diffusivity (e.g., Ce diffusivity ~10 -20 m 2 /s in irradiated Y 2 O 3 at 650 °C). This is paired with ductile chromium-rich interlayers (Cr 95 Y 5 ), which significantly enhance fracture toughness and mechanical resilience. Design refinements, including increased ceramic layer thickness and optimized Cr–Y interlayer composition, eliminated fracture propagation and preserved coating integrity under extreme mechanical stress (>10× typical reactor conditions) and prolonged radiation exposure (~300 dpa). Those conditions are well beyond expected conditions during normal operations in SFR, and cover some of the transient conditions as well. In addition, the coating deposition was demonstrated to be applied uniformly to the inner surface of steel tubes representing prototypic SFR cladding. Another phenomenon under consideration in this work is the corrosion of zirconium-based cladding under prototypic boiling water reactor (BWR) conditions and associated off normal conditions including loss of coolant accident (LOCA). Another multilayer thin film coating is considered for mitigation of this phenomenon, where a coating of yttrium aluminum and yttrium aluminum ceramic/metal thin film coating. Preliminary results on the coating performance during high temperature thermal cycling (up to 1000 C) have shown promising performance of the coating. On-going optimization of the coating will continue in FY26.
A performance evaluation was made of two, black nickel coated, flat plate solar collectors. Collector performance was determined under a simulated sun for a wide range of inlet temperatures, including the temperature required for solar powered absorption air conditioning. For a basis of comparison a performance test was made on a traditional, two glass, nonselective, black paint coated, flat plate collector. Performance curves and performance parameters are presented to point out the importance of the design variables which determine an efficient collector. A black nickel coated collector was found to be a good performer at the conditions expected for solar powered absorption air conditioning. This collector attained a thermal efficiency of 50 percent at an inlet temperature of 366 K (200 F) and an incident flux of 946 watts/sq m (300 Btu/hr-sq ft).
We show that conditional expectations, optimal hypotheses, disintegrations and adjoints of unital completely positive maps are all instances of Bayesian inverses. We study the existence of the latter by means of the Tomita–Takesaki modular group and we provide extensions of a theorem of Takesaki as well as a theorem of Accardi and Cecchini to the setting of not necessarily faithful states on finite-dimensional C* -algebras.
An innovative creep/fatigue test was run to simulate the temperature, mechanical load, and sodium corrosion conditions expected in a heat pipe designed to supply thermal energy to a Stirling cycle power converter. A sodium-charged Inconel 718 heat pipe with a Nickel 200 screen wick was operated for 1090 hr at temperatures between 950 K (1250 F) and 1050 K (1430 F) while being subjected to creep and fatigue loads in a servo-hydraulic testing machine. After testing, the heat pipe was sectioned and examined using optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and electron microprobe analysis with wavelength dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. The analysis concentrated on evaluating topographic, microstructural, and chemical changes in the sodium exposed surfaces of the heat pipe wall and wick. Surface changes in the evaporator, condenser, and adiabatic sections of the heat pipe were examined in an effort to correlate the changes with the expected sodium environment in the heat pipe. This report describes the setup, operating conditions, and analytical results of the sodium heat pipe fatigue test.
The relative performance of (1) counterflow film cooling, (2) parallel-flow film cooling, (3) convection cooling, (4) adiabatic film cooling, (5) transpiration cooling, and (6) full-coverage film cooling was investigated for heat loading conditions expected in future gas turbine engines. Assumed in the analysis were hot-gas conditions of 2200 K (3500 F) recovery temperature, 5 to 40 atmospheres total pressure, and 0.6 gas Mach number and a cooling air supply temperature of 811 K (1000 F). The first three cooling methods involve film cooling from slots. Counterflow and parallel flow describe the direction of convection cooling air along the inside surface of the wall relative to the main gas flow direction. The importance of utilizing the heat sink available in the coolant for convection cooling prior to film injection is illustrated.
The catalytic recombination of carbon monoxide and oxygen was studied under conditions expected to be present in a sealed E-beam CO2 laser system. These conditions are typically a gas inlet temperature of 60 C, a substoichiometric CO/O2 ratio of ca. 2.5/1 with an oxygen feed rate of ca. 5 micromoles/s, a carrier gas comprising He, N2 and CO2 in the ratio of 3:2:1, near atmospheric pressure and a gas velocity of 4 m/s. Heterogeneous catalysts, based on precious metal supported on tin oxide, have been coated onto ceramic monoliths and tested for catalytic activity and stability after a reduction/passivation step. Two catalyst systems have been chosen. These are Pt/Pd/SnO2 and Pt/Ru/SnO2. Under the conditions described above, a characteristic decline in catalytic activity is apparent for both systems, and exit gas temperature has been recognized as a sensitive parameter by which to monitor the activity changes. A semilogarithmic plot of exit temperature as a function of time has revealed two distinct processes connected with the decline in activity: one process is associated with reduction of the oxidized precious metal (at Site A), whilst the other is related to the formation and approach to steady-state of an active site at the metal/support interface (Site B).
The International NASA/DARPA Photobiology Conference held at the Johnson Space Center in Houston/TX demonstrated where low level laser therapy (LLLT), respectively low intensity light activated biostimulation (LILAB) and nanotechnological applications employing photobiomodulation techniques will presumably go in the next ten years. The conference was a continuation of the 1st International Conference on Nearfield Optical Analysis organized by Andrei Sommer (ENSOMA Lab, University of Ulm, Germany) in November 2000 at Castle Reisenburg, Germany, which started with a group of ten scientists from eight different countries. The 1st conference was co-sponsored by the American Chemical Society to evaluate the molecular mechanism of accelerated and normal wound healing processes. The 2nd conference was co-sponsored by DARPA, NASA-JSC and the Medical College of Wisconsin. Despite the short time between events, the 2nd conference hosted 40 international experts form universities, research institutes, agencies and the industry. The materials published here are expected to become milestones forming a novel platform in biomedical photobiology. The multidisciplinary group of researchers focused on LLLT/LILAB-applications under extreme conditions expected to have beneficial effects particularly in space, on submarines, and under severe battlefield conditions. The group also focused on novel technologies with possibilities allowing investigating the interaction of light with biological systems, molecular mechanisms of wound healing, bone regeneration, nerve regeneration, pain modulation, as well as biomineralization and biofilm formulation processes induced by nanobacteria.
NASA and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) through a CSA contractor, Argo Space/Robotics Division, partnered to perform environmental performance tests on a high torque producing motor. CSA provided the motor and NASA provided a thermal vacuum chamber capable of achieving high vacuum (P < 1 E-5 torr) and temperatures between 25 and 400 K. NASA also provided a dynamometer system capable of measuring and or applying break torque between 0 and 28 Nm. The two primary goals of the test were to simulate sun exposed and shadow condition expected on the lunar surface in order to determine survivability of the motor at extreme temperature conditions and to operate the motor under a constant break load of 6.8 Nm in the temperature range of 30K to 415K. A secondary objective of the test was to operate the motor for 15 km under 6.8 Nm of load. The primary goals of the test were fully achieved. The secondary goal was partially achieved.