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Monte Carlo methods for conditional expectation for nonlinear dynamic systems with acceptable computing time expenditure
Expected enhancement of the N III emission-line spectrum by the Bowen He II to O III to N III resonant photoexcitation process is computed using a six-configuration model. Preliminary comparisons with available solar and nebular observations indicate that the process may play only a small role, although photoexcitation quenching of the N III and O III far-infrared fine-structure lines is noted as a possibly important mechanism. Some features are discussed in connection with the nebular emission at 1750 A, which is suggested as an indicator of excitation class for planetary nebulae.
Ply-by-ply in situ processes involving automated heated head deposition are being developed for fabrication of high performance, high temperature composite structures from low volatile content polymer matrices. This technology requires (1) dry carbon fiber towpreg, (2) consolidation of towpreg to quality, placement-grade unidirectional ribbon or tape, and (3) rapid, in situ, accurate, ply-by-ply robotic placement and consolidation of this material to fabricate a composite structure. In this study, the physical properties of a candidate thermoplastic ribbon, PIXA/IM7, were evaluated and screened for suitability in robotic placement. Specifically, towpreg was prepared from PIXA powder. Various conditions (temperatures) were used to convert the powder-coated towpreg to ribbons with varying degrees of processability. Ribbon within preset specifications was fabricated at 3 temperatures: 390, 400 and 410 C. Ribbon was also produced out-of-spec by purposely overheating the material to a processing temperature of 450 C. Automated placement equipment at Cincinnati Milacron and NASA Langley was used to fabricate laminates from these experimental ribbons. Ribbons were placed at 405 and 450 C by both sets of equipment. Double cantilever beam and wedge peel tests were used to determine the quality of the laminates and, especially, the interlaminar bond formed during the placement process. Ribbon made under conditions expected to be non-optimal (overheated) resulted in poor placeability and composites with weak interlaminar bond strengths, regardless of placement conditions. Ribbon made under conditions expected to be ideal showed good processability and produced well-consolidated laminates. Results were consistent from machine to machine and demonstrated the importance of ribbon quality in heated-head placement of dry material forms. Preliminary screening criteria for the development and evaluation of ribbon from new matrix materials were validated.
This work introduces an approach to estimate the complexity of a low-altitude air traffic scenario involving multiple UASs using mathematical programming. Given a set of multi-point UAS flight trajectories, vehicle dynamics, and a conflict resolution algorithm, an abstract model is developed such that it can be solved quickly using a mathematical programming optimization software without running high-fidelity simulations that can be computationally expensive and may not suit real-time apA quick and accurate assessment of complexity for a given traffic scenario can help plan and schedule flights to alleviate traffic bottleneck and mitigate operation risks, especially for unmanned aerial system traffic management where high traffic density or complexity is expected. This work introduces a traffic scenario complexity metric that was constructed based on the number of potential conflicts weighted by the conflict resolution cost associated. The cost associated with a conflict is calculated based on the corresponding conflict resolution maneuvers. To obtain the conflict resolution maneuvers, a MILP-based optimization was formulated with the vehicle model and conflict management parameters incorporated. To evaluate the complexity metrics, an approach of using measurements from high-fidelity simulations was proposed. The scenario complexity measurements for 920 random-generated scenarios were obtained through high-fidelity simulations and treated as the ground truth. Two statistics methods: Pearson and Alternative Conditional Expectations were applied for analysis. The results showed that the number of flights has low correlation with the scenario complexity according to the correlation coefficients calculated by both methods. The Alternative Conditional Expectations method shows that the proposed scenario complexity metric has better correlation with the ground truth than the number of potential conflicts.plications. In the abstract model, each vehicle is represented by a time-varied vector associated with position, speed, and heading information. The total extra distance that aircraft need to divert from their original routes to avoid collisions is computed and used to setup a quadratic programming formula. The metrics including the number of conflicts and extra distances travelled by all vehicles are then utilized to estimate the complexity of a given UAS flight scenario. Results and verification against high-fidelity simulations will be provided in the final draft.
The MESSENGER (Mercury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry, and Ranging) spacecraft, planned for launch in March 2004, will perform two flybys of Mercury before entering a year-long orbit of the planet in September 2009. The mission will provide opportunities for detailed characterization of the surface, interior, atmosphere, and magnetosphere of the closest planet to the Sun. The NASA Glenn Research Center and the MESSENGER spacecraft integrator, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, have partnered under a Space Act Agreement to characterize a variety of critical components and materials under simulated conditions expected near Mercury. Glenn's Vacuum Facility 6, which is equipped with a solar simulator, can simulate the vacuum and high solar radiation anticipated in Mercury orbit. The MESSENGER test hardware includes a variety of materials and components that are being characterized during the Tank 6 vacuum tests, where the hardware will be exposed to up to 11 suns insolation, simulating conditions expected in Mercury orbit. In 2002, ten solar vacuum tests were conducted, including beginning of life, end of life, backside exposure, and solar panel thermal shock cycling tests. Components tested include candidate solar array panels, sensors, thermal shielding materials, and communication devices. As an example, for the solar panel thermal shock cycling test, two candidate solar array panels were suspended on a lift mechanism that lowered the panels into a liquid-nitrogen-cooled box. After reaching -140 C, the panels were then lifted out of the box and exposed to the equivalent of 6 suns (8.1 kilowatts per square meters). After five cold soak/heating cycles were completed successfully, there was no apparent degradation in panel performance. An anticipated 100-hr thermal shield life test is planned for autumn, followed by solar panel flight qualification tests in winter. Glenn's ongoing support to the MESSENGER program has been instrumental in identifying design solutions and validating thermal performance models under a very aggressive development schedule. The test data have assisted Johns Hopkins engineers in selecting a flight solar array vendor and a thermal shield design. MESSENGER is one in a series of missions in NASA's Discovery Program. Infrared thermography provides data on the thermal gradients in the MESSENGER components during high solar insolation vacuum testing.
A performance evaluation was made of two, black nickel coated, flat plate solar collectors. Collector performance was determined under a simulated sun for a wide range of inlet temperatures, including the temperature required for solar powered absorption air conditioning. For a basis of comparison a performance test was made on a traditional, two glass, nonselective, black paint coated, flat plate collector. Performance curves and performance parameters are presented to point out the importance of the design variables which determine an efficient collector. A black nickel coated collector was found to be a good performer at the conditions expected for solar powered absorption air conditioning. This collector attained a thermal efficiency of 50 percent at an inlet temperature of 366 K (200 F) and an incident flux of 946 watts/sq m (300 Btu/hr-sq ft).
An innovative creep/fatigue test was run to simulate the temperature, mechanical load, and sodium corrosion conditions expected in a heat pipe designed to supply thermal energy to a Stirling cycle power converter. A sodium-charged Inconel 718 heat pipe with a Nickel 200 screen wick was operated for 1090 hr at temperatures between 950 K (1250 F) and 1050 K (1430 F) while being subjected to creep and fatigue loads in a servo-hydraulic testing machine. After testing, the heat pipe was sectioned and examined using optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and electron microprobe analysis with wavelength dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. The analysis concentrated on evaluating topographic, microstructural, and chemical changes in the sodium exposed surfaces of the heat pipe wall and wick. Surface changes in the evaporator, condenser, and adiabatic sections of the heat pipe were examined in an effort to correlate the changes with the expected sodium environment in the heat pipe. This report describes the setup, operating conditions, and analytical results of the sodium heat pipe fatigue test.
The relative performance of (1) counterflow film cooling, (2) parallel-flow film cooling, (3) convection cooling, (4) adiabatic film cooling, (5) transpiration cooling, and (6) full-coverage film cooling was investigated for heat loading conditions expected in future gas turbine engines. Assumed in the analysis were hot-gas conditions of 2200 K (3500 F) recovery temperature, 5 to 40 atmospheres total pressure, and 0.6 gas Mach number and a cooling air supply temperature of 811 K (1000 F). The first three cooling methods involve film cooling from slots. Counterflow and parallel flow describe the direction of convection cooling air along the inside surface of the wall relative to the main gas flow direction. The importance of utilizing the heat sink available in the coolant for convection cooling prior to film injection is illustrated.
The catalytic recombination of carbon monoxide and oxygen was studied under conditions expected to be present in a sealed E-beam CO2 laser system. These conditions are typically a gas inlet temperature of 60 C, a substoichiometric CO/O2 ratio of ca. 2.5/1 with an oxygen feed rate of ca. 5 micromoles/s, a carrier gas comprising He, N2 and CO2 in the ratio of 3:2:1, near atmospheric pressure and a gas velocity of 4 m/s. Heterogeneous catalysts, based on precious metal supported on tin oxide, have been coated onto ceramic monoliths and tested for catalytic activity and stability after a reduction/passivation step. Two catalyst systems have been chosen. These are Pt/Pd/SnO2 and Pt/Ru/SnO2. Under the conditions described above, a characteristic decline in catalytic activity is apparent for both systems, and exit gas temperature has been recognized as a sensitive parameter by which to monitor the activity changes. A semilogarithmic plot of exit temperature as a function of time has revealed two distinct processes connected with the decline in activity: one process is associated with reduction of the oxidized precious metal (at Site A), whilst the other is related to the formation and approach to steady-state of an active site at the metal/support interface (Site B).
The International NASA/DARPA Photobiology Conference held at the Johnson Space Center in Houston/TX demonstrated where low level laser therapy (LLLT), respectively low intensity light activated biostimulation (LILAB) and nanotechnological applications employing photobiomodulation techniques will presumably go in the next ten years. The conference was a continuation of the 1st International Conference on Nearfield Optical Analysis organized by Andrei Sommer (ENSOMA Lab, University of Ulm, Germany) in November 2000 at Castle Reisenburg, Germany, which started with a group of ten scientists from eight different countries. The 1st conference was co-sponsored by the American Chemical Society to evaluate the molecular mechanism of accelerated and normal wound healing processes. The 2nd conference was co-sponsored by DARPA, NASA-JSC and the Medical College of Wisconsin. Despite the short time between events, the 2nd conference hosted 40 international experts form universities, research institutes, agencies and the industry. The materials published here are expected to become milestones forming a novel platform in biomedical photobiology. The multidisciplinary group of researchers focused on LLLT/LILAB-applications under extreme conditions expected to have beneficial effects particularly in space, on submarines, and under severe battlefield conditions. The group also focused on novel technologies with possibilities allowing investigating the interaction of light with biological systems, molecular mechanisms of wound healing, bone regeneration, nerve regeneration, pain modulation, as well as biomineralization and biofilm formulation processes induced by nanobacteria.
NASA and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) through a CSA contractor, Argo Space/Robotics Division, partnered to perform environmental performance tests on a high torque producing motor. CSA provided the motor and NASA provided a thermal vacuum chamber capable of achieving high vacuum (P < 1 E-5 torr) and temperatures between 25 and 400 K. NASA also provided a dynamometer system capable of measuring and or applying break torque between 0 and 28 Nm. The two primary goals of the test were to simulate sun exposed and shadow condition expected on the lunar surface in order to determine survivability of the motor at extreme temperature conditions and to operate the motor under a constant break load of 6.8 Nm in the temperature range of 30K to 415K. A secondary objective of the test was to operate the motor for 15 km under 6.8 Nm of load. The primary goals of the test were fully achieved. The secondary goal was partially achieved.
This report describes the effort undertaken to meet the objectives of National Science Foundation Grant ATM-9207345 titled 'Test of Prototype Liquid-Water-Content Meter for Aircraft Use.' Three activities were proposed for testing the new aircraft instrument, PVM-100A: (1) Calibrate the PVM-100A in a facility where the liquid-water-content (LWC) channel, and the integrated surface area channel (PSA) could be compared to standard means for LWC and PSA measurements. Scaling constant for the channels were to be determined in this facility. The fog/wind tunnel at ECN, Petten, The Netherlands was judged the most suitable facility for this effort. (2) Expose the PVM-100A to high wind speeds similar to those expected on research aircraft, and test the anti-icing heaters on the PVM-100A under typical icing conditions expected in atmospheric clouds. The high-speed icing tunnel at NRC, Ottawa, Canada was to be utilized. (3) Operate the PVM-100A on an aircraft during cloud penetrations to determine its stability and practicality for such measurements. The C-131A aircraft of the University of Washington was the aircraft of opportunity for these-tests, which were to be conducted during the 4-week Atlantic Stratocumulus Transition Experiment (ASTEX) in June of 1992.
Smectite has been detected as layered material hundreds of meters thick, in intracrater depositional fans, in plains sediments, and deposits at depth on Mars. If early Mars hosted a dense CO2 atmosphere, then extensive carbonate should have formed in the neutral/alkaline conditions expected for smectite formation. However, large carbonate deposits on Mars have not been discovered. Instead of neutral to moderately alkaline conditions, early Mars may have experienced mildly acidic conditions that allowed for Fe/Mg smectite formation but prevented widespread carbonate formation. The objective of this work is to demonstrate that Fe(II)/Mg saponite and nontronite can form in mildly acidic solutions (e.g., pH 4). Synthetic basaltic glass (< 53 microns) of Adirondack rock class composition was exposed to pH 4 (acetic acid buffer) and N2 purged (anoxic) solutions amended with 0 and 10 mM Mg or Fe(II). Basaltic glass in these solutions was heated to 200 C in batch reactors for 1, 7, and 14 days. X-ray diffraction analysis of reacted materials detected the presence of phyllosilicates as indicated by a approx. 15.03-15.23Angstroms (001) peak. Smectite was confirmed as the phyllosilicate after treatments with glycerol and KCl and heating to 550 C. Trioctahedral saponite was confirmed by the presence of a 4.58 to 4.63 Angstroms (02l) and 1.54Angstroms (060) peaks. Saponite concentration was highest, as indicated by XRD peak intensity, in the 10 mM Mg treatment followed by the 0 mM and then 10 mM Fe(II) treatments. This order of sapontite concentration suggests that Fe(II) additions may have a role in slowing the kinetics of saponite formation relative to the other treatments. Nontronite synthesis was attempted by exposing Adirondack basaltic glass to pH 4 oxic solutions (without N2 purge) at 200 C for 14 days. X-ray diffraction analysis indicated that mixtures of trioctahedral (saponite) and dioctahedral (nontronite) may have formed in these experiments based on the 02l and 060 peaks. Moessbauer analysis coupled with future experiments are planned to verify if nontronite can be formed under mildly acidic and oxic conditions. Results of this work demonstrate that acidic conditions could have occurred on an early Mars, which allowed for smectite formation but inhibited carbonate formation.
The paper formulates the rate equations for twelve species: water, hydroxyl, molecular and atomic oxygen, molecular and atomic hydrogen, and their respective first ions for conditions expected to hold in the magnetosphere of Uranus. These equations have been solved numerically for maximal and minimal source strengths of the five known satellites, and the expected neutral and plasma number densities in the tori predicted to be associated with them have been calculated. It is found that under most conditions, there should be a sensible plasma torus associated with each satellite whose orbit is enclosed within the assumed magnetosphere.
Spaceflight requires tremendous amounts of energy to achieve Earth orbit and to attain escape velocity for interplanetary missions. Although the majority of the energy is managed in such a way as to limit the accelerations on the crew, several mission phases may result in crew exposure to dynamic loads. In the automotive industry, risk of serious injury can be tolerated because the probability of a crash is remote each time a person enters a vehicle, resulting in a low total risk of injury. For spaceflight, the level of acceptable injury risk must be lower to achieve a low total risk of injury because the dynamic loads are expected on each flight. To mitigate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, the NASA Human Research Program has developed a research plan to inform the knowledge gaps and develop relevant tools for assessing injury risk. The risk of injury due to dynamic loads can be further subdivided into extrinsic and intrinsic risk factors. Extrinsic risk factors include the vehicle dynamic profile, seat and restraint design, and spacesuit design. Human tolerance to loads varies considerably depending on the direction, amplitude, and rise-time of acceleration therefore the orientation of the body to the dynamic vector is critical to determining crew risk of injury. Although a particular vehicle dynamic profile may be safe for a particular design, the seat, restraint, and suit designs can affect the risk of injury due to localized effects. In addition, characteristics intrinsic to the crewmember may also contribute to the risk of injury, such as crewmember sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight, and each astronaut may have a different risk profile because of these factors. The purpose of the research plan is to address any knowledge gaps in the risk factors to mitigate injury risk. Methods for assessing injury risk have been well documented in other analogous industries and include human volunteer testing, human exposure to dynamic environments, post-mortem human subject (PMHS) testing, animal testing, anthropomorphic test devices (ATD), dynamic models of the human, numerical models of ATDs, and numerical models of the human. Each has inherent strengths and limitations. For example, human volunteer testing is advantageous because a population can be selected that is similar to the astronaut corps; however, because of the inherent ethical limitations, only sub-injurious conditions can be tested. PMHSs can be tested in a variety of conditions including injurious levels, but the responses are not completely analogous to living human subjects. In addition, it is exceedingly difficult to select a PMHS population that is similar to the astronaut corps. ATDs are currently widely used in the automotive industry and military because they are highly repeatable and durable. Unfortunately, because they are mechanical models of the human body, the biofidelity of the responses are limited to dynamic conditions used to validate the ATD. Numerical models of the ATD, in addition to the strengths and limitations for ATDs, are easy to use for a variety of designs before a design is fabricated, but also have additional limitations for ATDs, are easy to use for a variety of designs before a design is fabricated, but also have additional uncertainty. Dynamic models are simple and easy to use, but do not account for localized effects of the seat and suit. Finally, numerical models of the human have the potential to have the most advantages; however, the current models are not validated for the conditions expected during spaceflight. To properly assess spaceflight conditions with numerical human models, human data would be needed to optimize the model responses for those conditions. Using the appropriate assessment method with the knowledge gained for each risk factor, an appropriate approach for mitigating the risk of injury due to dynamic loads can be developed ensuring crew safety in future NASA vehicles.
The specific heat, enthalpy and free energy of nitrogen and oxygen are calculated for pressures between 1 and 100 bars and temperatures between 10,000 and 100,000 degrees Kelvin. The data are presented in a form suitable for input into computational fluid dynamics computer codes. This range of temperature and pressure are typical of the conditions expected in the bow shock layer of a meteor or small asteroid entering Earth's atmosphere. The extent of double and triple ionization of nitrogen and oxygen atoms under these conditions will be estimated.
This paper is concerned with the parameter adaptive least squares estimation of random processes. The main result is a general representation theorem for the conditional expectation of a random variable on a product probability space. Using this theorem along with the general likelihood ratio expression, the least squares estimate of the process is found in terms of the parameter conditioned estimates. The stochastic differential for the a posteriori probability and the stochastic differential equation for the a posteriori density are found by using simple stochastic calculus on the representations obtained. The results are specialized to the case when the parameter has a discrete distribution. The results can be used to construct an implementable recursive estimator for certain types of nonlinear filtering problems. This is illustrated by some simple examples.
It is shown that the least squares collocation approach to estimating geodetic parameters is identical to conventional minimum variance estimation. Hence, the least squares collocation estimator can be derived either by minimizing the usual least squares quadratic loss function or by computing a conditional expectation by means of the regression equation. When a deterministic functional relationship between the data and the parameters to be estimated is available, one can implement a least squares solution using the functional relation to obtain an equation of condition. It is proved the solution so obtained is identical to what is obtained through least squares collocation. The implications of this equivalance for the estimation of mean gravity anomalies are discussed.