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Results for “conditionally specified models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Local structure graph models with higher-order dependence

Local structure graph models (LSGMs) describe random graphs and networks as a Markov random field (MRF)—each graph edge has a specified conditional distribution dependent on explicit neighbourhoods of other graph edges. Centered parameterizations of LSGMs allow for direct control and interpretation of parameters for large- and small-scale structures (e.g., marginal means vs. dependence). Here, we extend this parameterization to account for triples of dependent edges and illustrate the importance of centered parameterizations for incorporating covariates and interpreting parameters. Using a MRF framework, common exponential random graph models are also shown to induce conditional distributions without centered parameterizations and thereby have undesirable features. This work attempts to advance graph models through conditional model specifications with modern parameterizations, covariates and higher-order dependencies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Testing and Expertise for Marine Energy (TEAMER) Program Support - Numerical Modeling Assistance for iProTech's "PIP" WEC Device: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-20-17303

Develop a time-domain, 3 degree of freedom numerical model of IProTech's PIP device, including power take-off (PTO), that can be used to develop control algorithms and establish a baseline technology performance level (TPL). This is important to IProTech because having a good numerical model allows IProTech to optimize design and control algorithms on an ongoing basis. A baseline TPL enables the PIP technology to be benchmarked against other wave energy converter (WEC) concepts, providing (i) justification (or not) for investment in wave tank model testing, (ii) identifying optimum design parameters and control algorithms for the test model, (iii) specifying test conditions and (iv) interpreting wave tank test results. An accredited WEC-Sim model of the PIP device is an essential tool for further development of the technology. 1) The development of numerical models of the PIP concept will enable iProTech to evaluate the potential performance of this concept, and to investigate how sensitive the device is to different variables within the system (e.g. hydraulic components, geometry dimensions, etc.) 2) The numerical models were developed with WEC-Sim and PTO-Sim -- the de-facto industry standard WEC numerical modeling tools. A detailed model of the system's hydraulic circuit was developed with PTO-Sim. However, WEC-Sim is based on linear hydrodynamics and has several limitations; validation against high fidelity models/physical scale models would help to build confidence in the results.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-dimensional variational data assimilation with machine-learned reduced-order models

Abstract. Data assimilation (DA) in geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction and is a crucial building block that has allowed dramatic improvements in weather forecasting over the past few decades. DA is commonly framed in a variational setting, where one solves an optimization problem within a Bayesian formulation using raw model forecasts as a prior and observations as likelihood. This leads to a DA objective function that needs to be minimized, where the decision variables are the initial conditions specified to the model. In traditional DA, the forward model is numerically and computationally expensive. Here we replace the forward model with a low-dimensional, data-driven, and differentiable emulator. Consequently, gradients of our DA objective function with respect to the decision variables are obtained rapidly via automatic differentiation. We demonstrate our approach by performing an emulator-assisted DA forecast of geopotential height. Our results indicate that emulator-assisted DA is faster than traditional equation-based DA forecasts by 4 orders of magnitude, allowing computations to be performed on a workstation rather than a dedicated high-performance computer. In addition, we describe accuracy benefits of emulator-assisted DA when compared to simply using the emulator for forecasting (i.e., without DA). Our overall formulation is denoted AIEADA (Artificial Intelligence Emulator-Assisted Data Assimilation).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental study on kinetic oxidation of graphite IG-110 by steam

Graphite is proposed for use in High-temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs) as the fuel matrix, neutron moderator/reflector, and core structural material. One important property of nuclear grade graphite is their resistance to oxidation in high-temperature environment. Extensive investigation has been performed in the literature for graphite oxidation by air. However, available experimental data are still limited for graphite oxidation by steam under conditions comparable to a postulated steam ingress accident in HTGRs. In this study, the oxidation rate of graphite IG-110 by steam was measured at temperatures from 850 to 1100 °C with the steam partial pressure varying from 0.5 to 20.0 kPa and the hydrogen partial pressure varying from 0 to 2.0 kPa. Further analysis confirms the oxidation process in this present study is dominated by the chemical kinetics, which lends credit to the data for being used to develop numerical models. It was observed that the increase of the kinetic oxidation rate with the steam partial pressure tends to become less apparent if the steam partial pressure keeps increasing. In addition, it was found that the partitioning of hydrogen inhibits the graphite-steam reaction process even with the steam partial pressure up to 20.0 kPa. However, this inhibiting effect starts to become saturated when the hydrogen partial pressure exceeds 1.0 kPa. The oxidation rates were fitted to the conventional Langmuir-Hinshelwood (LH) and Boltzmann-enhanced Langmuir-Hinshelwood (BLH) models by a multivariable optimization algorithm. The BLH model exhibits a better accuracy than the LH model within the specified experimental conditions. The predicted oxidation rate using the BLH model shows a mean relative difference of about 24% with the maximum difference of about 55% when compared with our experimental data.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task C Final Report

The Full-scale Emplacement (FE) heater experiment at the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory (URL) was designed and conducted by Nagra to replicate an emplacement tunnel of Nagra’s reference repository design at 1:1 scale. Alongside testing the technical feasibility of constructing disposal tunnels, emplacing waste containers in the tunnels and then backfilling them, the main goals of the FE experiment are (1) to obtain a better understanding of the coupled effects of induced thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes that may occur and (2) to validate existing coupled THM models (Müller et al., 2017). A key aspect of ensuring safety for repositories located in low-permeability rock involves minimizing any damage to the rock itself, thereby preserving its integrity and promoting a stable environment Amongst a number of processes that could damage the rock is the increase in pore pressure due to thermal loading caused by heat emitted from the waste. To reduce the potential damage of the rock, it is important to analyse the evolution of heat over time due to the heat load of the containers and assess possible consequences by coupled THM models. The aim of Task C of DECOVALEX-2023 was to build 3D numerical models of the FE experiment, focussing in particular on the heating induced pore pressure change in the Opalinus Clay. Data from a large number of sensors were available from the FE experiment for model comparison. These sensors measured temperature and relative humidity in the bentonite around the heaters, and temperature, pressure and displacement/strain in the surrounding Opalinus clay. Data were available from the start of excavation (April 2012) up to August 2020 for most sensors (more than 5 years from the start of heating in December 2014). To fulfil the overall aim of the task, the work was broken down into a number of steps, starting with simpler models to build confidence in each team’s approach and then moving to more complex models that better represent the FE experiment. Step 0 consisted of 2D benchmark models, gradually increasing the number of processes that are represented from thermal (T) only models in Step 0a, to coupled thermal hydraulic (TH) models in Step 0b with a representation of changing porosity, to coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models in Step 0c, where porosity changes are calculated by the mechanical model. A detailed specification of processes, parameters, initial and boundary conditions was provided for this step, with the ambition that all teams would work towards close agreement in their model results, thus building confidence in the model implementations. vi It was not straightforward to achieve agreement between the teams, so additional steps (Step 0b2, 0b3, 0c2, 0c3) were added along with derivation of some analytical solutions against which the models could be compared. The reasons for the differences between teams were investigated and found to be caused primarily by different conceptual model assumptions (including temperature dependence of the thermal expansion of water), different model formulations (including porosity evolution) and differences in modelled domain sizes, boundary conditions and grid discretisation. This demonstrates that comparisons between multiple modelling teams and/or comparison with analytical results and experimental data are highly beneficial in providing an indication of uncertainty in model predictions. At the conclusion of Step 0, almost all teams had achieved a close agreement in model results and those that had not achieved an agreement knew the reason for this. Step 1 moved from 2D models to 3D models of the FE experiment without adding technical features like shotcrete or EDZ, and only considering the heating phase. Initially the 3D model was tightly specified to continue to build confidence in the model implementations (Step 1a). The results of Step 1a were compared to the data from the FE-experiment without the teams seeing the data. The teams were then provided with a sub-set of the data from the FE-experiment and invited to consider how best to use the large dataset for model comparison (Step 1b). Teams were then asked to use the data provided to calibrate their models, only changing material property values rather than adding features or processes to their models (Step 1c). In Step 1, teams were asked to only model the heating phase of the experiment, so pressure in the Opalinus Clay was reported as change in pressure since the initial conditions were specified rather than modelled. The change from 2D to 3D models was accompanied by an increase in the dispersion of results between the teams. Some of this was resolved during the task, but some remained and is potentially due to model discretisation. Calibration of parameters was useful in improving the fit of the models to the data but the remaining differences indicated that the models were missing features or processes. In Step 2, the teams were asked to update their models with additional features and processes as well as calibrating parameters to try and improve the fit of the models to the data. Teams were encouraged to represent ventilation of the open FE tunnel prior to backfilling with heaters and bentonite and in Step 2, the absolute pressure in the Opalinus Clay was compared between the teams. Teams took different approaches, but there was consideration of adding shotcrete and an EDZ into the model, representing stress change during excavation and different approaches to modelling ventilation of the FE tunnel. Overall, the documented results showed a very good agreement for temperature. The results for porewater pressure evolution showed a significant improvement for most teams compared to Step 1c with a good agreement to the measurements for several teams whereas some teams overpredicted the pressure increase and others overpredicted the drainage effect especially for the sensors close to the heater. Step 3 was an opportunity for teams to use the models developed in Step 1 and Step 2 to make predictions about the temperature and pressure changes that will be expected at the FE experiment over the next few years in light of the planned changes in thermal output of the heaters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Objective design of interlocking metasurfaces using conditional diffusion models

Unit cell design remains a major challenge for interlocking metasurfaces, a promising joining technology for dissimilar materials, due to the complex, competing, multivariate design space and the need for rapid adaptation to varying performance requirements. This study explores Conditional Diffusion Models as a design optimization tool for interlocking metasurfaces. Given the complex, competing, multivariate design space for interlocking metasurfaces, unit cell design remains a major challenge for this joining technology. We trained a conditional diffusion model on 25,000 finite element analysis-simulated interlocking metasurface unit cells to generate designs with tailored thermo-mechanical properties (tensile strength, shear strength, and thermal conductivity) based on specified performance criteria. The model demonstrated a success rate of approximately 72 % in producing designs that met specified property bounds. The conditional diffusion model generated both thermally resistive and conductive designs, revealing clear trends in design characteristics: taller, dendritic structures were advantageous for tensile loads, while shorter, robust designs excelled in shear applications. Our findings indicate that the model's performance is more influenced by the breadth of the design space than by the quantity of training data, highlighting the importance of expansive design domains for generating innovative solutions. This work establishes conditional diffusion models as a highly efficient and adaptable tool for rapid interlocking metasurface unit cell design, paving the way for advancements in multi-material joining technologies, as well as highlighting the justification to leverage conditional diffusion models as design tools across complex design domains.

Conditional diffusion models↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Gold Nanorod Spectral Morphology Analysis Pipeline

The development of a colloidal synthesis procedure to produce nanomaterials with high shape and size purity is often a time-consuming, iterative process. This is often due to quantitative uncertainties in the required reaction conditions and the time, resources, and expertise intensive characterization methods required for quantitative determination of nanomaterial size and shape. Absorption spectroscopy is often the easiest method for colloidal nanomaterial characterization. However, due to the lack of a reliable method to extract nanoparticle shapes from absorption spectroscopy, it is generally treated as a more qualitative measure for metal nanoparticles. This work demonstrates a gold nanorod (AuNR) spectral morphology analysis tool, called AuNR-SMA, which is a fast and accurate method to extract quantitative structural information from colloidal AuNR absorption spectra. To demonstrate the practical utility of this model, we apply it to three distinct applications. First, we demonstrate this model's utility as an automated analysis tool in a high-throughput AuNR synthesis procedure by generating quantitative size information from optical spectra. Second, we use the predictions generated by this model to train a machine learning model to predict the resulting AuNR size distributions under specified reaction conditions. Third, we apply this model to spectra extracted from the literature where no size distributions are reported and impute unreported quantitative information on AuNR synthesis. This approach can potentially be extended to any other nanocrystal system where absorption spectra are size dependent, and accurate numerical simulation of absorption spectra is possible. In addition, this pipeline could be integrated into automated synthesis apparatuses to provide interpretable data from simple measurements, help explore the synthesis science of nanoparticles in a rational manner, or facilitate closed-loop workflows.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Development of physics-consistent conditional diffusion model to overcome data scarcity in critical heat flux

Deep generative modeling provides a powerful pathway to overcome data scarcity in energy-related applications where experimental data are often limited. By learning the underlying probability distribution of the training dataset, deep generative models, such as the diffusion model, can generate high-fidelity synthetic samples that statistically resemble the training data. Such synthetic data generation can significantly enrich the size and diversity of the available training data, and more importantly, improve the robustness of downstream machine learning models in predictive tasks. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of diffusion models for overcoming data scarcity in nuclear energy applications. By leveraging a public dataset on critical heat flux which covers a wide range of commercial nuclear reactor operational conditions, we developed a diffusion model that can generate an arbitrary amount of synthetic samples. Since a vanilla diffusion model can only generate samples randomly, we also developed a conditional diffusion model capable of generating targeted critical heat flux data under user-specified thermal-hydraulic conditions. The performance of the diffusion model was evaluated based on its ability to capture empirical feature distributions and pair-wise correlations, as well as to maintain physical consistency. The results showed that both the diffusion model and conditional diffusion model can successfully generate realistic and physics-consistent critical heat flux data. Furthermore, uncertainty quantification results demonstrate that the conditional diffusion model is highly effective in augmenting critical heat flux data while maintaining acceptable levels of uncertainty.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification for Smooth Functional Data with Application to Material Properties

This document outlines a method for processing functional output (i.e., curves) for the ultimate purpose of sampling curves under specified input conditions for use in modeling and simulation uncertainty quantification (UQ) studies. A set of benchmark curves sufficiently representative of the relevant scenario(s) being simulated are provided to the process and formatted as described in Section 1. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is utilized to discover the components of uncertainty in the benchmark curves and is outlined in Section 2. Section 3 describes the application of uncertainty quantification to the PCA results for the purpose of sampling curves to be used in UQ analysis. Section 4 applies these techniques to an example benchmark dataset. Concluding remarks are provided in the final section.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved Boundary Conditions for Coupled Geospace Models: An Application in Modeling Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment

Abstract Spacecraft surface charging in the inner magnetosphere often occurs in the pre‐midnight to the dawn sector when electron fluxes of tens of keV increase. Inner magnetosphere ring current models can be used to simulate/predict the spacecraft surface charging environment, with their outer boundary conditions specified either based on observations or provided by other models, such as MHD models. In the latter approach, using MHD quantities, the flux spectrum at the outer boundary is commonly assumed to follow a Kappa or Maxwellian distribution function. Such a method however often departs greatly from the realistic spectrum at E < tens of keV, a crucial energy range in the surface charging anomaly. In order to achieve a better representation of the surface charging environment, we propose to combine the MHD‐parameterized flux spectrum with an empirical electron flux model of E < 40 keV to set the electron flux boundary condition. Results indicate that as opposed to the case where the MHD‐parameterized flux distribution is solely used at the model boundary, simulations with the new boundary condition yields a more intense surface charging environment. The integrated electron flux between 10 < E < 50 keV, a measure of the severity of the surface charging environment, is significantly enhanced by 1‐2 orders of magnitude, leading to a much better agreement with Van Allen Probes measurements. This study hence demonstrates a reasonable solution to the setting of outer boundary conditions for inner magnetosphere models and is recommended for coupled geospace circulation models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

CondiDiag1.0: a flexible online diagnostic tool for conditional sampling and budget analysis in the E3SM atmosphere model (EAM)

Abstract. Numerical models used in weather and climate prediction take into account a comprehensive set of atmospheric processes (i.e., phenomena) such as the resolved and unresolved fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, cloud and aerosol life cycles, and mass or energy exchanges with the Earth's surface. In order to identify model deficiencies and improve predictive skills, it is important to obtain process-level understanding of the interactions between different processes. Conditional sampling and budget analysis are powerful tools for process-oriented model evaluation, but they often require tedious ad hoc coding and large amounts of instantaneous model output, resulting in inefficient use of human and computing resources. This paper presents an online diagnostic tool that addresses this challenge by monitoring model variables in a generic manner as they evolve within the time integration cycle. The tool is convenient to use. It allows users to select sampling conditions and specify monitored variables at run time. Both the evolving values of the model variables and their increments caused by different atmospheric processes can be monitored and archived. Online calculation of vertical integrals is also supported. Multiple sampling conditions can be monitored in a single simulation in combination with unconditional sampling. The paper explains in detail the design and implementation of the tool in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1. The usage is demonstrated through three examples: a global budget analysis of dust aerosol mass concentration, a composite analysis of sea salt emission and its dependency on surface wind speed, and a conditionally sampled relative humidity budget. The tool is expected to be easily portable to closely related atmospheric models that use the same or similar data structures and time integration methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical Multiobjective Optimization of Thiospinel CoNi 2 S 4 Nanocrystal Synthesis via Design of Experiments

Thiospinels, such as CoNi 2 S 4 , are showing promise for numerous applications, including as catalysts for the hydrogen evolution reaction, hydrodesulfurization, and oxygen evolution and reduction reactions; however, CoNi 2 S 4 has not been synthesized as small, colloidal nanocrystals with high surface-area-to-volume ratios. Traditional optimization methods to control nanocrystal attributes such as size typically rely upon one variable at a time (OVAT) methods that are not only time and labor intensive but also lack the ability to identify higher-order interactions between experimental variables that affect target outcomes. Herein, we demonstrate that a statistical design of experiments (DoE) approach can optimize the synthesis of CoNi 2 S 4 nanocrystals, allowing for control over the responses of nanocrystal size, size distribution, and isolated yield. After implementing a 2 5–2 fractional factorial design, the statistical screening of five different experimental variables identified temperature, Co:Ni precursor ratio, Co:thiol ratio, and their higher-order interactions as the most critical factors in influencing the aforementioned responses. Second-order design with a Doehlert matrix yielded polynomial functions used to predict the reaction parameters needed to individually optimize all three responses. A multiobjective optimization, allowing for the simultaneous optimization of size, size distribution, and isolated yield, predicted the synthetic conditions needed to achieve a minimum nanocrystal size of 6.1 nm, a minimum polydispersity (σ/$\bar{d}$) of 10%, and a maximum isolated yield of 99%, with a desirability of 96%. The resulting model was experimentally verified by performing reactions under the specified conditions. Furthermore, our work illustrates the advantage of multivariate experimental design as a powerful tool for accelerating control and optimization in nanocrystal syntheses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computation of conventional and alternative jet fuel sensitivity to lean blowout

Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are performed to compute the sensitivity of a conventional (A-2) and an alternate bio-jet (C-1) fuel to Lean Blowout (LBO). A realistic aviation gas turbine engine combustor configuration is considered. Reliable experimental LBO data and OH* chemiluminescence data for the conventional and alternate jet fuel in the combustor configuration have recently become available. The present work utilizes a highly automated, on-the-fly meshing strategy, along with adaptive mesh refinement, to demonstrate the feasibility of capturing the realistic combustion processes. A Lagrangian framework, with initial conditions specified using measurements of spray statistics, is used to model the fuel spray. Newly developed compact reaction mechanisms based on fuel surrogates are validated for the A-2 and the C-1 fuels. The compact reaction mechanisms are implemented using a detailed finite rate chemistry solver. Spray statistics computed by the present LES simulations compare well with available measurements at stable flame conditions near the lean blowout limit. The computed shape of the stable flame as represented by line integrated OH concentrations compares well with the experimental OH* chemiluminescence data. Lean blowout is reached by gradually decreasing the fuel flow rate in the computations, similar to that in the experiments. The results of the LES simulations effectively capture the fuel composition effects and estimate the sensitivity of the LBO limits to the fuel type. The computed trends in LBO limits agree within engineering accuracy with the experimental results for conventional and alternative aviation fuels. The methodology for predicting the fuel composition effects on the lean blowout limits in a fully resolved realistic, complex combustor is established for the first time.

Adaptive mesh refinement↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Assessment of the Laminar Hypersonic Double-Cone Experiments in the LENS-XX Tunnel

This is an investigation on two experimental datasets of laminar hypersonic flows, over a double-cone geometry, acquired in Calspan—University at Buffalo Research Center’s Large Energy National Shock (LENS)-XX expansion tunnel. These datasets have yet to be modeled accurately. A previous paper suggested that this could partly be due to mis-specified inlet conditions. The authors of this paper solved a Bayesian inverse problem to infer the inlet conditions of the LENS-XX test section and found that in one case they lay outside the uncertainty bounds specified in the experimental dataset. However, the inference was performed using approximate surrogate models. Here in this paper, the experimental datasets are revisited and inversions for the tunnel test-section inlet conditions are performed with a Navier–Stokes simulator. The inversion is deterministic and can provide uncertainty bounds on the inlet conditions under a Gaussian assumption. It was found that deterministic inversion yields inlet conditions that do not agree with what was stated in the experiments. An a posteriori method is also presented to check the validity of the Gaussian assumption for the posterior distribution. This paper contributes to ongoing work on the assessment of datasets from challenging experiments conducted in extreme environments, where the experimental apparatus is pushed to the margins of its design and performance envelopes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multibody for Everybody (M4E): A Symbolic Dynamics Modeling Tool with Applications in Simulation, Control, and Optimization

Developing the analytical model of a multibody system is often the initial step in control and optimization. The analytical model (equations of motion) describes a system’s time evolution under specified forcing conditions. Although developing these equations is easy for simple systems, this process becomes more complex for systems composed of multiple bodies. Deriving equations of motion for complex multibody systems requires specialized expertise in multibody dynamics, is time-consuming, and is susceptible to error. To address this issue, this paper presents an open-source, easy-to-use, systematic framework to derive symbolic equations of motion in both Python and MATLAB using the joint coordinate formulation. This formulation results in a set of ordinary differential equations that use the minimum set of coordinates needed to model a system. The symbolic representation provides better insight into the influence of design parameters on system performance, facilitates sensitivity analysis and parameter studies, and supports direct implementation of control and optimization routines. The tool enables numerical simulation for specified parameter sets, is modular for straightforward integration with other tools and libraries, and allows incorporation of hydrodynamics, mooring, and other external forces. The result is a reproducible, extensible pipeline for modeling, simulation, and design of complex multibody systems. The proposed tool is versatile and can be applied to domains such as robotics, control, and design. In addition, we integrated external libraries that provide capabilities for modeling offshore systems such as underwater robots and marine energy converters.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary Development of Heat Transfer Model-Based Control Algorithms of Liquid Sodium Purification System: Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation Advanced Controls

Monitoring the operation of sodium purification system is essential for efficient operation of sodium fast reactors. In this work, a heat transfer model has been developed for monitoring the plugging meter and cold trap systems at the Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) liquid sodium facility at Argonne National Laboratory. The model of the purification system was developed by treating the respective aspects of the cold trap purification loop and plugging meter diagnostic loop as two separate control volumes using information from the METL piping and instrumentation diagram (P&ID). A model predictive controller was designed using first order differential equations with the specified boundary conditions. The system behavior was studied with a tuned optimized procedure using the internal cold trap temperature and plugging meter outlet temperature as control variables, and the air blower temperature as an independent variable respectively. Results of computer simulations obtained in this study compared favorably with experimental data showing very good reference tracking response with negligible overshoot as both plugging meter and cold trap physical models approach the setpoint.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning based algorithms for uncertainty quantification in numerical weather prediction models

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the corresponding physical parameters during model configuration can significantly impact the accuracy of model forecasts. There is no combination of physical schemes that works best for all times, at all locations, and under all conditions. It is therefore of considerable interest to understand the interplay between the choice of physics and the accuracy of the resulting forecasts under different conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning techniques to study the uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models due to the interaction of multiple physical processes. The first problem addressed herein is the estimation of systematic model errors in output quantities of interest at future times, and the use of this information to improve the model forecasts. The second problem considered is the identification of those specific physical processes that contribute most to the forecast uncertainty in the quantity of interest under specified meteorological conditions. In order to address these questions we employ two machine learning approaches, random forests and artificial neural networks. The discrepancies between model results and observations at past times are used to learn the relationships between the choice of physical processes and the resulting forecast errors. Numerical experiments are carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The output quantity of interest is the model precipitation, a variable that is both extremely important and very challenging to forecast. The physical processes under consideration include various micro-physics schemes, cumulus parameterizations, short wave, and long wave radiation schemes. The experiments demonstrate the strong potential of machine learning approaches to aid the study of model errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗