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Results for “conformal prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nasa’S Development of Merino - A New Family of Advanced, Low-Cost, Non-Woven Ablative Tps Materials

The Mars Exploration Program (MEP) and NASAs Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) are investing in approaches to reduce the cost and increase the frequency of future Mars missions while also seeking to help emerging commercial space companies which have an immediate need to demonstrate their capability to return samples from space - at a fraction of the cost of a conventional NASA mission. Of particular interest and relevance to commercial space and low-cost Mars, is the work developing and advancing MERINO-LD, an ablative carbon/phenolic blanket that is ~75% faster to produce with an estimated ~75% reduction in cost when compared to rigid PICA or Conformal-PICA TPS.

Matthew Gasch↗
NASA NTRS2014

Online Prediction of Battery Discharge and Estimation of Parasitic Loads for an Electric Aircraft

Predicting whether or not vehicle batteries contain sufficient charge to support operations over the remainder of a given flight plan is critical for electric aircraft. This paper describes an approach for identifying upper and lower uncertainty bounds on predictions that aircraft batteries will continue to meet output power and voltage requirements over the remainder of a flight plan. Battery discharge prediction is considered here in terms of the following components; (i) online battery state of charge estimation; (ii) prediction of future battery power demand as a function of an aircraft flight plan; (iii) online estimation of additional parasitic battery loads; and finally, (iv) estimation of flight plan safety. Substantial uncertainty is considered to be an irremovable part of the battery discharge prediction problem. However, high-confidence estimates of flight plan safety or lack of safety are shown to be generated from even highly uncertain prognostic predictions.

Battery Discharge Prediction↗
NASA NTRS2026

Introduction to the Special Issue on Advanced Air Mobility Noise: Predictions, Measurements and Perception

This Special Issue focuses on noise associated with Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), an emerging class of predominantly electric distributed-propulsion aircraft designed for urban and regional transportation. As these vehicles move toward certification and deployment, noise has become a central challenge for regulatory approval and public acceptance, particularly due to operations in densely populated areas and at low altitudes. The 24 contributions in this issue address three key aspects of AAM noise: prediction, measurement, and human perception. Prediction studies span a wide range of modeling fidelities, from high-resolution simulations to improved semi-analytical approaches, and examine complex aeroacoustic mechanisms including rotor interactions, turbulence ingestion, and broadband noise generation. Measurement studies, largely at model scale, provide new insights into tonal and broadband noise characteristics across configurations and operating conditions, while supporting model validation. Perception-focused contributions investigate annoyance, sound quality metrics, and auralization, emphasizing the role of context and operational factors in shaping human response. Together, these works highlight the interdisciplinary nature of AAM noise research and the need for integrated approaches to enable quieter vehicle design.

Perception↗
NASA NTRS2026

The Significance of Water Vapor Isotopes in Improving Weather Prediction

Water vapor isotopes carry the integrated history of evaporation, condensation, mixing, and transport. Although previous studies have shown potential to improve forecasts under controlled conditions, real-world applications have been limited by systematic biases in both models and satellite retrievals arising from sparse measurements in the free troposphere. Here we assimilate mid‑tropospheric δD retrievals (peak sensitivity ~4.2 km) from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer into the Isotope‑incorporated Global Spectral Model and evaluate the added value beyond co‑assimilated temperature and specific humidity with identical spatial and temporal coverage. Assimilating δD improves 0–120 h forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height, with the largest gains in the midlatitudes; heavy‑precipitation skill also increases for thresholds >3 mm per 6 h. Demonstrated in a coarse‑resolution configuration with limited observations, the results indicate that isotopic information strengthens transport tracking and hydrological constraints, motivating evaluation in operational high‑resolution forecasting systems.

Hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2015

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This report documents the outcome of the assessment.

Steven J Gentz↗
NASA NTRS2015

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (~9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Steven J Gentz↗
NASA NTRS2015

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading: Appendices

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approx. 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approx. 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Gentz, Steven J↗
NASA NTRS2015

Empirical Model Development for Predicting Shock Response on Composite Materials Subjected to Pyroshock Loading: Appendices - Volume 2, Part 1

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) received a request to develop an analysis model based on both frequency response and wave propagation analyses for predicting shock response spectrum (SRS) on composite materials subjected to pyroshock loading. The model would account for near-field environment (approximately 9 inches from the source) dominated by direct wave propagation, mid-field environment (approximately 2 feet from the source) characterized by wave propagation and structural resonances, and far-field environment dominated by lower frequency bending waves in the structure. This document contains appendices to the Volume I report.

Steven J Gentz↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Wildfire Monitoring with TEMPO and ML tools: Hourly Smoke and Fire‑Front Mapping and Near‑Surface NO₂ Predictions

Wildfires impose substantial impacts on communities and regions downwind of wildfire smoke. We present a TEMPO‑enabled workflow that generates value‑added Level‑3 smoke‑plume masks and fire‑front maps for large wildfires, such as 2024 Park Fire, using the self‑supervised deep learning system SIT‑FUSE, along with near‑surface NO₂ predictions produced by a foundation model (Microsoft Aurora). We conclude by outlining a roadmap for expanding these capabilities to additional Western U.S. wildfire events and for delivering actionable tools to stakeholders. This open-source, reproducible workflow provides a scalable framework for cross-agency wildfire monitoring to overcome traditional limitations in smoke-cloud discrimination and air-quality forecasting by incorporating TEMPO data and beyond.

Xiaohua Pan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Team Functioning in Long Term Space Missions Using Acoustic and Linguistic Measures

Maintaining optimal team functioning is critical for long-duration space exploration missions, yet traditional monitoring methods, such as self-reports and wearable sensors, often impose operational burdens or suffer from bias. This paper investigates a non-intrusive speech-based artificial intelligence (AI) framework to predict degradations in team functioning using data from the Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using acoustic features, linguistic descriptors, and semantic embeddings, we evaluate static non-linear and temporal machine learning models to predict both objective (task accuracy) and subjective (self-reported efficacy and cohesion) team functioning outcomes. Results indicate that temporal models outperform static approaches, with prediction of objective task accuracy in Team Interaction Battery (TIB) improving from near chance to 71%. Self-reported outcomes, including team efficacy and cohesion, are predicted more reliably than task performance, achieving balanced accuracies of up to 85.56% and 78.12%, respectively, and are found to be most strongly associated with acoustic features. In a second interdependent task, the MMSEV–EVA, accuracies of up to 78% are achieved using temporal models with acoustic features. Furthermore, incorporating just 1–2 days of team-specific historical data systematically improved performance, and acoustic markers from informal pre-task interactions provided modest predictive gains. Finally, while automated preprocessing yielded viable accuracy, humancorrected data provided moderate performance gains, though transcription error rates did not significantly correlate with model performance. These findings highlight the potential of speech as a passive, high-fidelity monitoring tool for autonomous habitats.

Temporal modeling↗
NASA NTRS2014

A Predictive Bubble Point Pressure Model for Porous Liquid Acquisition Device Screens

This article presents a simplified model for porous screen channel liquid acquisition devices based on a maximum bubble point pressure method from Adamson and Gast (1997). To validate the model, three 304 stainless steel (325 × 2300, 450 × 2750, and 510 × 3600) mesh samples were tested in methanol, acetone, isopropyl alcohol, and water. Screen pores are estimated based on analysis from scanning electron microscopy, historical data, and current test data. Results show that the bubble point pressure is proportional to the surface tension of the fluid only when accounting for nonzero contact angles. The previous assumption that bubble point pressure scales inversely with effective pore diameter is shown to be invalid, as the second finest 450 × 2750 produced the highest bubble point of the three screens. The simplified bubble point model can be used to make predictions for any pure fluid when pore diameters are based on bubble point tests and not SEM analysis.

Liquid Acquisition Device↗
NASA NTRS2026

GVIPS Prediction of Cyclic Ratchetting Behavior and Cycles with Interrupted Relaxation Periods of TIMETAL 21S at 650 °C

The predictive performance of a multimechanism GVIPS model with saturating hardening function is assessed against a set of high temperature cyclic experiments under both strain-control and stress-control at varying rates of loading as well as several complex interrupted cyclic responses. The material specimens were composed of the titanium alloy, TIMETAL 21S, and tested at 650 °C, see Lissenden et al., 2007. The model did a very good job of predicting the variety of tests, particularly given the fact that only monotonic loading tests (tensile, creep, relaxation) and a single fully reversed cycle was used for characterization. It was particularly interesting that the model was capable of reasonably capturing the rate of accumulated strain during ratchetting under tensile mean stress. Given complex interrupted cyclic response, the model was able to both qualitatively and even quantitatively predict reasonably well both the cyclic and associated relaxation periods (in all quadrants of the stress-strain space) thus confirming the validity of the chosen functional forms for both hardening and thermal recovery. The quantitative inaccuracy is associated with the fact that the material specimens tested by Lissenden et al., 2007 was significantly “softer” than those tested by Castelli in Saleeb et al., 1994 which were used for characterization of the GVIPS model parameters.

Viscoplaticity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improvements to RANS Modeling for Aeroheating Predictions on Blunt Bodies

Accurate predictions of aeroheating are critical for designing thermal protection systems for planetary entry vehicles. For larger vehicles, turbulence in the boundary layer can substantially increase convective heating. This turbulence must be accurately modeled to ensure the thermal protection system is sufficient. The majority of hypersonic turbulence model development and validation focuses on boundary layers developing over flat-plates or sharp cones; these cases are substantially different than the boundary layer that develops over the heatshield of a blunt body traveling at hypersonic speeds. Planetary missions often use blunt body geometries, such as the 70-degree sphere-cone favored by Mars missions or the 45-degree sphere-cone planned for the upcoming DAVINCI mission. Due to smaller vehicle size and the lower velocities in the stagnation region, planetary entry vehicles have relatively low Reynolds numbers. Surface curvature and high enthalpy gradients create additional challenges. These difficulties must be addressed to obtain high accuracy needed for the ambitious planetary missions in the upcoming decade. This work focuses on both assessing and improving Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models for blunt-body geometries typical of planetary entry vehicles, with a focus on one-equation and two-equation formulations.

Mars2020↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Numerical Predictions of the Flow and Heat Transfer Characteristics in the Film Boiling Regime During Tube Quenching

Cryogenic fluid management plays a major role in refueling of spacecrafts while in space for NASA’s future human space exploration missions. Due to the low boiling points of cryogens, storage, transport and handling of these fluids becomes difficult and may result in inefficient operation of the space propulsion systems. For refueling applications in space, the cryogenic fluids have to be transported across different locations and hence, the transfer of cryogenic fluids through pipes become critical. The cryogenic chill-down process is characterized by different regimes of flow boiling, viz., film boiling, transition boiling and nucleate boiling. The prediction of these regimes in a single CFD framework available in the literature is challenging and the present work attempts to address this challenge by initially modeling the film boiling regime accurately and to incorporate an user-defined function for transition and nucleate boiling at a later stage. Hence, the aim of the present work is to numerically model and validate the film boiling regime of the chilldown curve for liquid nitrogen experiments available in the literature. The validations are carried out at different inlet mass fluxes to have a robust simulation methodology. A dispersed mixture model is used to predict the vapor-liquid interface dynamics with the phase change phenomena modeled using the Lee model.

line chilldown↗
NASA NTRS2026

Predicting Operational Performance of xEMU Boot at Lunar South Pole Temperatures using Thermal Desktop ®

The spacesuit boots that will be used on Artemis lunar south pole surface missions will be exposed to extremely cold temperatures (down to ~50 K). To assess the performance of the government’s Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) lunar boot in these permanently shadowed regions, testing was performed at the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) in the Cryogenic Ice Transfer, Acquisition Development, and Excavation Laboratory (CITADEL) thermal vacuum (TVAC) chamber. This paper documents the data analysis, thermal boot model correlation, and operational predictions conducted using data from the xEMU CITADEL TVAC test. Expected thermal conductances within the boot and between the boot and environment were calculated from test data, which was then used as an initial guess for conductances within a Thermal Desktop (TD) model. Correlation of the TD model using the internal SOLVER feature was performed across 10 different test points which varied external temperature, internal boot ventilation flowrate, and contact pressure. Operational performance at the lunar south pole was then predicted using results from the correlated model. While the predictions provide evidence for acceptable performance of the boots at the 100K environment test point, there is still substantial uncertainty in performance, especially at the 48K test point. This uncertainty is due in part to testing limitations such as contacting the foot to a hard metal plate rather than granular regolith, and model limitations such as the lack of a realistic foot model. These limitations and their impacts are addressed in detail in this paper. The results of this test series and model correlation underscore the importance of additional improved testing and modeling for characterizing the expected thermal resistance between the outside of the boot and the lunar surface.

Spacesuit↗