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At least 19 records

Consequence Prioritization Process for Potential High Consequence Events (HCE)

This document describes the process for Consequence Prioritization, the first phase of the Consequence-Driven Cyber-Informed Engineering (CCE) framework. The primary goal of Consequence Prioritization is to identify potential disruptive events that would significantly inhibit an organization’s ability to provide the critical services and functions deemed fundamental to their business mission. These disruptive events, defined as High Consequence Events (HCE), include both events that have occurred or could be realized through an attack of critical infrastructure owner assets. While other efforts have been initiated to identify and mitigate disruptive events at the national security level, such as Presidential Policy Directive 41 (PPD-41), this process is intended to be used by individual organizations to evaluate events that fall below the threshold for a national security. Described another way, Consequence Prioritization considers threats greater than those addressable by standard cyber-hygiene and includes the consideration of events that go beyond a traditional continuity of operations (COOP) perspective. Finally, Consequence Prioritization is most successful when organizations adopt a multi-disciplinary approach, engaging both cyber security and engineering expertise, as in-depth engineering perspectives are required to recognize and characterize and mitigate HCEs. Figure 1 provides a high-level overview of the prioritization process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.

Turner, Sean W. D. (ORCID:0000000344009800)↗

Role of peracetic acid on the disruption of lignin packing structure and its consequence on lignin depolymerisation

Peracetic acid (PAA) is an effective oxidant capable of solubilising lignin and efficiently depolymerising it to selective phenolic compounds; however, the specific role by which PAA initiates the depolymerisation is still elusive. Herein, interaction between PAA and the lignin macromolecule and the consequent structural changes of the latter were studied by characterising the lignin packing structure and its associated changes during the oxidation process. While the lignin packing structure and its changes associated with the PAA-mediated oxidation were probed by X-ray diffraction, the impact of the PAA on different chemical functionalities present in the lignin structure was established by 13 C and 1 H– 13 C heteronuclear single-quantum coherence nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Further, combining the NMR spectroscopy results, and the product distribution, we conclude that the predominant reaction pathway for the oxidative depolymerisation of lignin with PAA is the Baeyer–Villiger oxidation of the ketone formed by the oxidation of the benzylic hydroxyl group adjacent to the β-O-4 linkage. The experimental evidence provided herein corroborated that PAA instigates oxygen insertion to the lignin macromolecule resulting in disruption of its packing structures and facilitates depolymerisation. We also investigated various metal oxide and mixed metal oxide catalysts to identify effective catalysts that further enhance the efficiency of PAA-mediated depolymerisation of lignin and produce selective monomeric phenolic compounds. Techno-economic analysis was also conducted to identify the key parameters associated with this oxidative process that need to be considered for possible commercial application.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Technical Bases for Consequence Analyses Using MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System)

The use of MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) in regulatory applications requires that input parameters used in MACCS models have a defensible and transparent technical basis. The existing technical basis for MACCS parameters was identified and updates were developed based on current data and information. The transparent way these updates are documented provides a technical basis for updating MACCS parameters with consistent application among the MACCS user community.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Cognitive consequences of clumsy automation on high workload, high consequence human performance

The growth of computational power has fueled attempts to automate more of the human role in complex problem solving domains, especially those where system faults have high consequences and where periods of high workload may saturate the performance capacity of human operators. Examples of these domains include flightdecks, space stations, air traffic control, nuclear power operation, ground satellite control rooms, and surgical operating rooms. Automation efforts may have unanticipated effects on human performance, particularly if they increase the workload at peak workload times or change the practitioners' strategies for coping with workload. Smooth and effective changes in automation requires detailed understanding of the congnitive tasks confronting the user: it has been called user centered automation. The introduction of a new computerized technology in a group of hospital operating rooms used for heart surgery was observed. The study revealed how automation, especially 'clumsy automation', effects practitioner work patterns and suggest that clumsy automation constrains users in specific and significant ways. Users tailor both the new system and their tasks in order to accommodate the needs of process and production. The study of this tailoring may prove a powerful tool for exposing previously hidden patterns of user data processing, integration, and decision making which may, in turn, be useful in the design of more effective human-machine systems.

Cook, Richard I.↗

Consequences of contamination of the spacecraft environment: immunologic consequences

Long-term space voyages pose numerous known and unknown health hazards, to the human immune system. Well-studied clinical examples of secondary immunodeficiencies created on Earth, lead one to predict that the conditions of prolonged space flight would weaken the human immune responses that normally hold infection and cancer in check. From evidence gathered from humans flown for prolonged periods in space and from human models of space flight studied on Earth it is reasonable to suspect that space travelers to the planet Mars would experience a weakening of immunity. Subtle defects of immune cell structure and function have been observed in astronauts, such as weakening of specific T-lymphocyte recall of specific antigens. Ground-based models also have demonstrated alterations of immune function, such as the elevation of neuroendocrine immune system messengers, interleukin-6, and soluble tumor necrosis factor-alpha receptor in sleep deprivation. Since severe immune compromise the clinical consequences of reactivation of latent virus infections and the development of cancer, has yet to be seen in space flight or in the Earth models, it is extremely important to begin to quantify early changes in immunity to predict the development of immune system collapse with poor clinical outcomes. This approach is designed to validate a number of surrogate markers that will predict trouble ahead. Inherent in this research is the development of countermeasures to reduce the risks of infection and cancer in the first humans going to Mars.

Non-NASA Center↗

Small Changes With Big Consequences: Swapping Two Atoms In Side Chains Changes Phenylene‐Ethynylene Packing And Fluorescence

Abstract Engineering the properties of conjugated materials in the solid state is an unsolved, ongoing challenge important to fundamental understanding of how non‐covalent interactions dictate packing and key properties, as well as the development of technologies based in organic optoelectronics. The most common design paradigm of such materials divide them into a “main chain” with extended conjugation, the chemical structure of which determines optoelectronic properties, and “side chains” not conjugated to the backbone, which provide solubility when they are long alkyl chains. This paper describes comparisons between phenylene‐ethynylene molecules in which slight changes to the structure of “side chains”—swapping hydrogen and fluorine atomic position on an aromatic ring—results in unexpectedly large changes in the solid‐state optical properties. In a pair of anisyl‐terminated three‐ring phenylene‐ethynylenes, switching the side chain arenes of benzyl esters from 2,4,6‐trifluoro to 2,3,6‐trifluoro results in a shift in fluorescence emission spectra of over 100 nm, as well as the opposite direction of force‐induced shifting of emission. Through a combination X‐ray crystal structures, electronic structure calculations, and comparisons with other derivatives, we describe how the 2,4,6‐trifluorinated side chains yield cofacial fluoroarene‐arene stacking interactions that twist the PE backbone out of conjugation, while the 2,3,6‐trifluoro side chains do not stack, instead yielding more coplanar PE backbones that form intermolecular aggregates. Overall, this work demonstrates how slight modifications to parts of conjugated materials normally considered ancillary to optoelectronic properties can determine their solid‐state properties, epitomizing the challenge of rational design but at the same time offering opportunities for materials discovery and improved understanding of non‐covalent interactions.

Sharber, Seth A.↗

Interfacial Chemistry in Solid-State Batteries: Formation of Interphase and Its Consequences

Benefitting from extremely high shear modulus and high ionic transference number, solid electrolytes are promising candidates to address both the dendrite growth and electrolyte consumption problems inherent to the widely adopted liquid-phase electrolyte batteries. However, solid electrolyte/electrode interfaces present high resistance and complicated morphology, hampering the development of solid-state battery systems, while requiring advanced analysis for rational improvement. Here, we employ an ultra-sensitive three-dimensional (3D) chemical analysis to uncover the dynamic formation of interphases at the solid electrolyte/electrode interface. While the formation of interphases widens the electrochemical window, their electronic and ionic conductivities determine the electrochemical performance and has a large influence on dendrite growth. Our results suggest that, contrary to the general understanding, highly stable solid electrolytes with metal anodes in fact promote fast dendritic formation, as a result of less Li consumption and much larger curvature of dendrite tips that leads to an enhanced electric driving force. Detailed thermodynamic analysis shows an interphase with low electronic conductivity, high ionic conductivity, chemically stable yet having a dynamic thickness and uniform coverage is needed to prevent dendrite growth. Finally, this work provides a paradigm for interphase design to address the dendrite challenge, paving the way for the development of robust, fully operational solid-state batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗