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At least 19 records

How structural differences influence cross-model consistency: An electric sector case study

Multiple models are often employed to describe a range of possible outcomes for one or more scenarios, yielding insights into causal relationships and their uncertainties. Electric sector capacity expansion scenarios are a common topic of such efforts due to the economic influence of the electric sector, but model results typically span a broad solution space despite efforts to harmonize input assumptions, making decision implications difficult to discern. This study investigates the relationship between input harmonization and cross-model scenario consistency under disparate electric sector scenarios. We compare cross-model consistency between two state-of-the-art electric sector capacity expansion models (GCAM-USA and ReEDS) for six electric sector scenarios comprising alternate assumptions about fossil fuel resource availability, technology innovation, and long-term economy-wide transitions under four harmonization configurations varying model representations of electricity demand, fuel prices, renewable resources, and capacity retirements. These comparisons reveal that cross-model consistency can vary across scenarios under a given harmonization configuration, suggesting that harmonization efforts must often be scenario-specific if comparable cross-model consistency is desired. Model structural differences can hinder consistency, and the impact of these differences can depend on the scenario. Ultimately, thorough harmonization can reveal insights into cross-model consistency, which can be used to tighten uncertainty bounds and improve the decision-making implications of multi-model activities.

Cohen, Stuart↗

Reply to "Comment on 'A Self-Consistent Model of the Interacting Ring Current Ions and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves, Initial Results: Waves and Precipitation Fluxes' and 'Self-Consistent Model of the Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Waves in Multi-Ion Magnetosphere' by Khazanov et al. et al."

It is well-known that the effects of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves on ring current (RC) ion and radiation belt (RB) electron dynamics strongly depend on such particle/wave characteristics as the phase-space distribution function, frequency, wavenormal angle, wave energy, and the form of wave spectral energy density. The consequence is that accurate modeling of EMIC waves and RC particles requires robust inclusion of the interdependent dynamics of wave growth/damping, wave propagation, and[ particles. Such a self-consistent model is being progressively developed by Khazanov et al. [2002, 2006, 2007]. This model is based on a system of coupled kinetic equations for the RC and EMIC wave power spectral density along with the ray tracing equations. Thome and Home [2007] (hereafter referred to as TH2007) call the Khazanov et al. [2002, 2006] results into question in their Comment. The points in contention can be summarized as follows. TH2007 claim that: (1) "the important damping of waves by thermal heavy ions is completely ignored", and Landau damping during resonant interaction with thermal electrons is not included in our model; (2) EMIC wave damping due to RC O + is not included in our simulation; (3) non-linear processes limiting EMIC wave amplitude are not included in our model; (4) growth of the background fluctuations to a physically significantamplitude"must occur during a single transit of the unstable region" with subsequent damping below bi-ion latitudes,and consequently"the bounce averaged wave kinetic equation employed in the code contains a physically erroneous 'assumption". Our reply will address each of these points as well as other criticisms mentioned in the Comment. TH2007 are focused on two of our papers that are separated by four years. Significant progress in the self-consistent treatment of the RC-EMIC wave system has been achieved during those years. The paper by Khazanov et al. [2006] presents the latest version of our model, and in this Reply we refer mostly to this paper.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

Formal Definitions and Performance Comparison of Consistency Models for Parallel File Systems

The semantics of HPC storage systems are defined by the consistency models to which they abide. Storage consistency models have been less studied than their counterparts in memory systems, with the exception of the POSIX standard and its strict consistency model. The use of POSIX consistency imposes a performance penalty that becomes more significant as the scale of parallel file systems increases and the access time to storage devices, such as node-local solid storage devices, decreases. While some efforts have been made to adopt relaxed storage consistency models, these models are often defined informally and ambiguously as by-products of a particular implementation. Here in this work, we establish a connection between memory consistency models and storage consistency models and revisit the key design choices of storage consistency models from a high-level perspective. Further, we propose a formal and unified framework for defining storage consistency models and a layered implementation that can be used to easily evaluate their relative performance for different I/O workloads. Finally, we conduct a comprehensive performance comparison of two relaxed consistency models on a range of commonly seen parallel I/O workloads, such as checkpoint/restart of scientific applications and random reads of deep learning applications. We demonstrate that for certain I/O scenarios, a weaker consistency model can significantly improve the I/O performance. For instance, in small random reads that are typically found in deep learning applications, session consistency achieved a 5x improvement in I/O bandwidth compared to commit consistency, even at small scales.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the character of turbulent-like flows in self-consistent models of core-collapse supernovae

Neutrino-driven convection plays a crucial role in the development of core-collapse supernova (CCSN) explosions. However, the complex mechanism that triggers the shock revival and the subsequent explosion has remained inscrutable for many decades. Multidimensional simulations suggest that the growth of fluid instabilities, especially development of convection, will determine the morphology of the explosion. We have performed 3D simulations using spherical-polar coordinates covering a reduced angular extent (90° computational domain), and with angular resolutions of 2°, 1°, 1/2°, and 1/4°, to study the development of turbulent-like flows in core-collapse supernova explosions on a time scale of order 100 ms. We have employed the multi-physics Chimera code that includes detailed nuclear physics and spectral neutrino transport. Coarse resolution models do not develop an inertial range, presumably due to the bottleneck effect, such that the energy is prevented from cascading down to small scales and tends to accumulate at large scales. High-resolution models instead, start to recover the k −5/3 scaling of Kolmogorov's theory. Stochasticity and few simulation samples limit our ability to predict the development of explosions. Over the simulated time period, our models show no clear trend in improving (or diminishing) conditions for explosion as the angular resolution is increased. However, we find that disordered flow provides an effective pressure, as characterized by the Reynolds stress, behind the shock. This contribution, ~40%–50% of the thermal pressure, aids shock revival and thus the development of the explosion. Finally, we show that the kinetic energy power spectrum of reduced angular extent and full 4π models are consistent, thus indicating that a 90° computational domain is an adequate configuration to study the character of turbulence in CCSNe.

Casanova Bustamante, Jordi↗

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: The May 2-7, 1998, Storm

Complete description of a self-consistent model for magnetospheric ring current interacting with electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves is presented. The model is based on the system of two kinetic equations; one equation describes the ring current ion dynamics, and another equation describes the wave evolution. The effects on ring current ions interacting with electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves, and back on waves, are considered self-consistently by solving both equations on a global magnetospheric scale under non steady-state conditions. In the paper by Khazanov et al. [2002] this self-consistent model has only been shortly outlined, and discussions of many the model related details have been omitted. For example, in present study for the first time a new algorithm for numerical finding of the resonant numbers for quasilinear wave-particle interaction is described, or it is demonstrated that in order to describe quasilinear interaction in a multi-ion thermal plasma correctly, both e and He(+) modes of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves should be employed. The developed model is used to simulate the entire May 2-7, 1998 storm period. Trapped number fluxes of the ring current protons are calculated and presented along with their comparison with the data measured by the 3D hot plasma instrument Polar/HYDRA. Examining of the wave (MLT, L shell) distributions produced during the storm progress reveals an essential intensification of the wave emissions in about two days after main phase of storm. This result is well consistent with the earlier ground-based observations. Also the theoretical shapes and the occurrence rates for power spectral densities of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves are studied. It is found that in about 2 days after the storm main phase on May 4, mainly non Gaussian shapes of power spectral densities are produced.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

Interstellar Dust Models Consistent with Extinction, Emission, and Abundance Constraints

We present new interstellar dust models which have been derived by simultaneously fitting the far ultraviolet to near infrared extinction, the diffuse infrared emission, and, unlike previous models, the elemental abundances in dust for the diffuse interstellar medium. We found that dust models consisting of a mixture of spherical graphite and silicate grains, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules, in addition to porous composite particles containing silicate, organic refractory, and water ice, provide an improved .t to the UV-to-infrared extinction and infrared emission measurements, while consuming the amounts of elements well within the uncertainties of adopted interstellar abundances, including B star abundances. These models are a signi.cant improvement over the recent Li & Draine (2001, ApJ, 554, 778) model which requires an excessive amount of silicon to be locked up in dust: 48 ppm (atoms per million of H atoms), considerably more than the solar abundance of 34 ppm or the B star abundance of 19 ppm.

Zubko, Viktor↗

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Electric Field, Ring Current, Plasmasphere, and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Initial Results

Further development of our self-consistent model of interacting ring current (RC) ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves is presented. This model incorporates large scale magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling and treats self-consistently not only EMIC waves and RC ions, but also the magnetospheric electric field, RC, and plasmasphere. Initial simulations indicate that the region beyond geostationary orbit should be included in the simulation of the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. Additionally, a self-consistent description, based on first principles, of the ionospheric conductance is required. These initial simulations further show that in order to model the EMIC wave distribution and wave spectral properties accurately, the plasmasphere should also be simulated self-consistently, since its fine structure requires as much care as that of the RC. Finally, an effect of the finite time needed to reestablish a new potential pattern throughout the ionosphere and to communicate between the ionosphere and the equatorial magnetosphere cannot be ignored.

Gamayunov, K. V.↗

Self-consistent modelling of the polar thermosphere and ionosphere to magnetospheric convection and precipitation (invited review)

It has recently been demonstrated that the dramatic effects of plasma precipitation and convection on the composition and dynamics of the polar thermosphere and ionosphere include a number of strong interactive, or feedback, processes. To aid the evaluation of these feedback processes, a joint three dimensional time dependent global model of the Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere was developed in a collaboration between University College London and Sheffield University. This model includes self consistent coupling between the thermosphere and the ionosphere in the polar regions. Some of the major features in the polar ionosphere, which the initial simulations indicate are due to the strong coupling of ions and neutrals in the presence of strong electric fields and energetic electron precipitation are reviewed. The model is also able to simulate seasonal and Universal time variations in the polar thermosphere and ionospheric regions which are due to the variations of solar photoionization in specific geomagnetic regions such as the cusp and polar cap.

Rees, D.↗

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: The 2-7 May 1998 Storm

A complete description of a self-consistent model of magnetospheric ring current interacting with electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves is presented. The model is based on the system of two kinetic equations; one equation describes the ring current ion dynamics, and another equation describes the wave evolution. The effects on ring current ions interacting with electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves and back on waves are considered self-consistently by solving both equations on a global magnetospheric scale under nonsteady state conditions. The developed model is employed to simulate the entire 2-7 May 1998 storm period. First, the trapped number fluxes of the ring current protons are calculated and presented along with comparison with the data measured by the three- dimensional hot plasma instrument Polar/HYDRA. Incorporating in the model the wave-particle interaction leads to much better agreement between the experimental data and the model results. Second, examining of the wave (MLT, L shell) distributions produced by the model during the storm progress reveals an essential intensification of the wave emission about 2 days after the main phase of the storm. This result is well consistent with the earlier ground-based observations. Finally, the theoretical shapes and the occurrence rates of the wave power spectral densities are studied. It is found that about 2 days after the storm s main phase on 4 May, mainly non-Gaussian shapes of power spectral densities are produced.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

An analytical expression for temperature in a thermodynamically consistent model with a Mie-Gruneisen equation for pressure

The objective of this paper is to develop an analytical expression for temperature in a thermodynamically consistent model with a Mie-Gruneisen equation for pressure. This expression for the temperature is obtained for both constant and variable specific heat models and can be used in common models for the material yield strength that include thermal softening due to increase in temperature. Additionally, the material parameters in the model can easily be calibrated to match known experimental data and the model has been used to determine the value of the shock pressure at the onset of melting during shock loading.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Waves in Multi-Ion Magnetosphere

The further development of a self-consistent theoretical model of interacting ring current ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves (Khazanov et al., 2003) is presented In order to adequately take into account wave propagation and refraction in a multi-ion magnetosphere, we explicitly include the ray tracing equations in our previous self-consistent model and use the general form of the wave kinetic equation. This is a major new feature of the present model and, to the best of our knowledge, the ray tracing equations for the first time are explicitly employed on a global magnetospheric scale in order to self-consistently simulate the spatial, temporal, and spectral evolution of the ring current and of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves To demonstrate the effects of EMIC wave propagation and refraction on the wave energy distribution and evolution, we simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings of our simulation can be summarized as follows. First, owing to the density gradient at the plasmapause, the net wave refraction is suppressed, and He+-mode grows preferably at the plasmapause. This result is in total agreement with previous ray tracing studies and is very clearly found in presented B field spectrograms. Second, comparison of global wave distributions with the results from another ring current model (Kozyra et al., 1997) reveals that this new model provides more intense and more highly plasmapause-organized wave distributions during the May 1998 storm period Finally, it is found that He(+)-mode energy distributions are not Gaussian distributions and most important that wave energy can occupy not only the region of generation, i.e., the region of small wave normal angles, but all wave normal angles, including those to near 90 . The latter is extremely crucial for energy transfer to thermal plasmaspheric electrons by resonant Landau damping and subsequent downward heat transport and excitation of stable auroral red arcs.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Waves in Multi Ion Magnetosphere - 1

The further development of a self-consistent theoretical model of interacting ring current ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves [Khazanov et al., 2003] is presented. In order to adequately take into account the wave propagation and refraction in a multi-ion plasmasphere, we explicitly include the ray tracing equations in our previous self-consistent model and use the general form of the wave kinetic equation. This is a major new feature of the present model and, to the best of our knowledge, the ray tracing equations for the first time are explicitly employed on a global magnetospheric scale in order to self-consistently simulate spatial, temporal, and spectral evolutions of the ring current and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves. To demonstrate the effects of EMIC wave propagation and refraction on the EMIC wave energy distributions and evolution we simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings of our simulation can be summarized as follows. First, due to the density gradient at the plasmapause, the net wave refraction is suppressed, and He(+)-mode grows preferably at plasmapause. This result is in a total agreement with the previous ray tracing studies, and very clear observed in presented B-field spectrograms. Second, comparison the global wave distributions with the results from other ring current model [Kozyra et al., 1997] reveals that our model provides more intense and higher plasmapause organized distributions during the May, 1998 storm period. Finally, the found He(+)-mode energy distributions are not Gaussian distributions, and most important that wave energy can occupy not only the region of generation, i. e. the region of small wave normal angles, but the entire wave normal angle region and even only the region near 90 degrees. The latter is extremely crucial for energy transfer to thermal plasmaspheric electrons by resonant Landau damping, and subsequent downward heat transport and excitation of stable auroral red arcs.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

A self-consistent model for the particles and fields upstream of an outgassing comet. I - Gyrotropic and isotropic ion distributions

The magnetic field and solar wind flow parameters in the vicinity of a weakly outgassing comet are determined using a self-consistent model which treats the cometary ions kinetically. Two different assumptions are made concerning the cometary ion distribution function; the pickup cometary ions from either a velocity space gyrotropic ring distribution or a velocity space isotropic shell distribution in the solar wind frame of reference. The individual currents due to the solar wind and cometary ions, which determine the magnetic field, are calculated in each case. Using theoretically determined parameters which reflect the conditions expected to comet Kopff (a typical short-period comet and one possible target for the future CRAF/Cassini mission) for various heliocentric distances, the way in which global field and flow characteristics are influenced by the nature of the cometary ion distribution function is determined.

Flammer, K. R.↗

New Interstellar Dust Models Consistent with Interstellar Extinction, Emission and Abundances Constraints

We present new interstellar dust models that are consistent with both, the FUV to near-IR extinction and infrared (IR) emission measurements from the diffuse interstellar medium. The models are characterized by different dust compositions and abundances. The problem we solve consists of determining the size distribution of the various dust components of the model. This problem is a typical ill-posed inversion problem which we solve using the regularization approach. We reproduce the Li Draine (2001, ApJ, 554, 778) results, however their model requires an excessive amount of interstellar silicon (48 ppM of hydrogen compared to the 36 ppM available for an ISM of solar composition) to be locked up in dust. We found that dust models consisting of PAHs, amorphous silicate, graphite, and composite grains made up from silicates, organic refractory, and water ice, provide an improved fit to the extinction and IR emission measurements, while still requiring a subsolar amount of silicon to be in the dust. This research was supported by NASA Astrophysical Theory Program NRA 99-OSS-01.

Zubko, V.↗

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Waves, Precipitating Ring Current Ions, and Thermal Electron Heating - 2

This paper is dedicated to further presentations and discussions of the results from our new global self-consistent theoretical model of interacting ring current ions and electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves [Khazanov et al., 2006; here referred to as Paper 1]. In order to adequately take into account the wave propagation and refraction in a multi-ion plasmasphere, we explicitly include the ray tracing equations in our previous self-consistent model and use the general form of the wave kinetic equation [for details see Paper 1]. To demonstrate the effects of the EMIC wave propagation and refraction on the RC proton precipitations and heating of the thermal plasmaspheric electrons we simulate the May 1998 storm. The main findings of our simulation can be summarized as follows. Firstly, the wave induced precipitations have a quite fine structure, and are highly organized by location of the plasmapause gradient. The strongest fluxes of about 4 (raised dot) 10(exp 6) [(cm (raised dot) s (raised dot) sr)(sup -l)] are observed during the main and early recovery phases of the storm. The very interesting and probably more important finding is that in a number of cases the most intense precipitating fluxes are not simply connected to the most intense EMIC waves. The character of the EMIC wave power spectral density distribution over the equatorial wave normal angle is an extremely crucial for the effectiveness of the RC ion scattering. Secondly, comparison of the global proton precipitating patterns with the results from other ring current model [Kozyra et al., 1997] reveals that although we observe a qualitative agreement between localizations of the wave induced fluxes in the models, there is no quantitative agreement between the magnitudes of these fluxes. These differences are mainly due to a qualitative difference between the characters of the EMIC wave power spectral density distributions over the equatorial wave normal angle. Finally, the two energy sources to the plasmaspheric electrons are considered; (i) the heat fluxes caused by the EMIC wave energy absorption due to Landau resonance, and (ii) the heat fluxes due to Coulomb energy degradation of the RC o(+) ions. The heat fluxes caused by the EMIC wave energy absorption due to Landau resonance are observed in the postnoon-premidnight MLT sector, and maximize at the magnitude of 10l1 (eV/(cm(sup 2)(raised dot) s) at L=3.25, MLT=22 at 3400 UT after 1 May, 0000 UT. The greatest Coulomb energy deposition rates are about 2 (raised dot) 10(sup 10)(eV/(cm(sup 2)(raised dot) s) and observed during two periods; 32-48 hours, and 76-86 hours after 1 May, 0000 UT. The theoretically derived spatial structure of the thermal electron heating caused by interaction of the RC with plasmasphere is strongly supported by concurrent and conjugate plasma measurements from the plasmasphere, the RC, and the topside ionosphere [Gurgiolo et al., 20051.

Khazanov, G. V.↗

Model consistency in large eddy simulation of turbulent channel flows

Combinations of filters and subgrid scale stress models for large eddy simulation of the Navier-Stokes equations are examined by a priori tests and numerical simulations. The structure of the subgrid scales is found to depend strongly on the type of filter used, and consistency between model and filter is essential to ensure accurate results. The implementation of consistent combinations of filter and model gives more accurate turbulence statistics than those obtained in previous investigations in which the models were chosen independently from the filter. Results and limitations of the a priori test are discussed. The effect of grid refinement is also examined.

Piomelli, Ugo↗