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Potential of TES to constrain estimates of continental sources of carbon monoxide
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Shape-constrained Input Estimation for Efficient Multi-shaker Vibration Testing
Multi-shaker vibration testing is gaining interest from structural dynamics test engineers as it can provide a much more accurate match to complicated field vibration responses than traditional single-axis shaker tests. However, the force capabilities of the small modal shakers typically used in multi-shaker vibration tests has limited the achievable response levels. To date, most multi-shaker vibration tests have been performed using a variety of standard, commercially-available control systems. While these control systems are adequate for a wide range of multiple-input/multiple-output tests, their control algorithms have not been tailored for the specific problem of multi-shaker vibration tests: efficiently coordinating the various shakers to work together to achieve a desired response. Here, a new input estimation algorithm is developed and demonstrated using simulations and actual test data. This algorithm, dubbed shape-constrained input estimation, is shown to effectively coordinate multiple shakers using a set of constraint vectors based on the deflection shapes of the test structure. This is accomplished by using the singular vector shapes of the system frequency response matrix, which allows the constraint vectors to automatically change as a function of frequency. Simulation and test results indicate a significant reduction in the input forces required to achieve a desired response. Finally, the results indicate that shape-constrained input estimation is an effective method to achieve higher response levels from limited shaker forces which will enable higher level multi-shaker vibration tests to be performed.
Stochastic differential games with constrained state estimators
Stochastic differential games with constrained state estimators, involving linear system, quadratic cost functional and white Gaussian noises corrupting output measurements
Evaluation of Ocean Biogeochemistry and Carbon Cycling in CMIP Earth System Models With the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) Software System
Abstract The International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) software package is a new community resource that we use here to evaluate surface and upper ocean biogeochemical variables and integrated anthropogenic carbon uptake from earth system models (ESMs) contributing to the 5th and 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). IOMB generates graphics and tables for systematically comparing model predictions against multiple datasets. Our analysis reveals some improvement in the multi‐model mean from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for most of the variables we examined. Compared to data‐constrained estimates of ocean anthropogenic carbon uptake for the 1994–2007 period, negative biases exist for many models between 30 and 50°S. Global model estimates of anthropogenic carbon uptake for the same period do not change significantly from CMIP5 to CMIP6, with the combined ensemble mean estimate of 27.8 ± 0.5 Pg C lower than a data‐constrained estimate of 33.0 ± 4.0 Pg C. At the same time, the change in the natural carbon inventory from CMIP is estimated to be a source of 0.7 ± 0.3 Pg C, which is considerably smaller in magnitude than a data‐constrained estimate of 5.0 ± 3.0 Pg C. With chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) predictions available for several models, we demonstrate that negative anthropogenic dissolved inorganic carbon biases coincide with negative biases in CFC concentration, highlighting the importance of weak exchange between the surface and interior ocean in regulating rates of anthropogenic carbon uptake. To examine the robustness of this attribution across the CMIP models, we calculate the global vertical temperature gradient between 200 and 1,000 m as a metric for global stratification and exchange between the surface and deeper waters. We find a linear relationship between the bias of the vertical temperature gradients and the bias in global anthropogenic carbon uptake, consistent with the hypothesis that model biases in anthropogenic carbon uptake are related to biases in surface‐to‐interior exchange by physical processes.
Spacecraft inertia estimation via constrained least squares
This paper presents a new formulation for spacecraft inertia estimation from test data. Specifically, the inertia estimation problem is formulated as a constrained least squares minimization problem with explicit bounds on the inertia matrix incorporated as LMIs [linear matrix inequalities). The resulting minimization problem is a semidefinite optimization that can be solved efficiently with guaranteed convergence to the global optimum by readily available algorithms. This method is applied to data collected from a robotic testbed consisting of a freely rotating body. The results show that the constrained least squares approach produces more accurate estimates of the inertia matrix than standard unconstrained least squares estimation methods.
Aircraft Turbofan Engine Health Estimation Using Constrained Kalman Filtering
Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints (which may be based on physical considerations) are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. This paper develops an analytic method of incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter. The resultant filter is a combination of a standard Kalman filter and a quadratic programming problem. The incorporation of state variable constraints increases the computational effort of the filter but significantly improves its estimation accuracy. The improvement is proven theoretically and shown via simulation results obtained from application to a turbofan engine model. This model contains 16 state variables, 12 measurements, and 8 component health parameters. It is shown that the new algorithms provide improved performance in this example over unconstrained Kalman filtering.
Remotely Sensed Carbonyl Sulfide Constrains Model Estimates of Amazon Primary Productivity
We report understanding the magnitude of tropical gross primary production (GPP) is critical for carbon cycle modeling and climate projections, but this quantity is poorly constrained at regional scales. Biospheric uptake of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) provides a promising approach to estimating regional GPP. Here, we simulate OCS concentrations driven by surface flux scenarios encompassing a wide range of GPP estimates for the Amazon basin. We compare the model output to satellite retrievals and find a regional GPP estimate of 2375 ± 914 g(C) m –2 yr –1 , consistent with previous estimates, including the TRENDY model ensemble range of 1431–3812 g(C) m –2 yr –1 .
Forward Modeling of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in GEOS-5: Uncertainties Related to Surface Fluxes and Sub-Grid Transport
Forward GEOS-5 AGCM simulations of CO2, with transport constrained by analyzed meteorology for 2009-2010, are examined. The CO2 distributions are evaluated using AIRS upper tropospheric CO2 and ACOS-GOSAT total column CO2 observations. Different combinations of surface C02 fluxes are used to generate ensembles of runs that span some uncertainty in surface emissions and uptake. The fluxes are specified in GEOS-5 from different inventories (fossil and biofuel), different data-constrained estimates of land biological emissions, and different data-constrained ocean-biology estimates. One set of fluxes is based on the established "Transcom" database and others are constructed using contemporary satellite observations to constrain land and ocean process models. Likewise, different approximations to sub-grid transport are employed, to construct an ensemble of CO2 distributions related to transport variability. This work is part of NASA's "Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project,"
Contributions of GRACE to Climate Monitoring
The NASA/German Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was launched in March 2002. Rather than looking downward, GRACE continuously monitors the locations of and precise distance between twin satellites which orbit in tandem about 200 km apart. Variations in mass near Earth's surface cause heterogeneities in its gravity field, which in turn affect the orbits of satellites. Thus scientists can use GRACE data to map Earth's gravity field with enough accuracy to discern month to month changes caused by ocean circulation and redistribution of water stored on and in the land. Other gravitational influences, such as atmospheric circulation, post-glacial rebound, and solid earth movements are either independently determined and removed or are negligible on a monthly to sub-decadal timescale. Despite its coarse spatial (>150,000 sq km at mid-latitudes) and temporal (approx monthly) resolutions, GRACE has enabled significant advancements in the oceanic, hydrologic, and cryospheric science, and has great potential for climate monitoring, because it is the only global observing system able to measure ocean bottom pressures, total terrestrial water storage, and ice mass changes. The best known GRACE results are estimates of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss rates. Previously, scientists had estimated ice mass losses using ground and satellite based altimetry and surface mass balance estimates based on snowfall accumulation and glacier discharge. While such measurements are still very useful for their spatial detail, they are imperfectly correlated with large-scale ice mass changes, due to snow and ice compaction and incomplete spatial coverage. GRACE enables scientists to generate monthly time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice mass, which have confirmed the shrinking of the polar ice sheets, one of the most obvious and indisputable manifestations of climate change. Further, GRACE has located and quantified hot spots of ice loss in southeastern Greenland and western Antarctica. For 2002 to present, the rate of ice mass loss has been 200 to 300 GT/yr in Greenland and 70 to 210 GT/yr in Antarctica, and some scientists are suggesting that the rates are accelerating. Similarly, GRACE has been used to monitor mass changes in alpine glaciers. Tamisiea et al. first characterized glacier melt along the southern coast of Alaska, more recently estimated to be occurring at a rate of 84 GT/yr. Chen et al. estimated that Patagonian glaciers are melting at a rate of 28 GT/yr, and estimated that the high mountains of central Asia lose ice at a rate of 47 GT/yr. Tapley et al. and Wahr et al. presented the first GRACE based estimates of changes in column-integrated terrestrial water storage (TWS; the sum of ground-water, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, ice, and water stored in vegetation) at continental scales. Since then, dozens of studies have shown that GRACE based estimates of regional to continental scale TWS variations agree with independent information, and some innovative uses of GRACE data have been developed. Rodell et al. (2004) and Swenson and Wahr (2006) demonstrated that by combining GRACE derived terrestrial water storage changes with observations of precipitation and runoff in a river basin scale water budget, it was possible to produce new estimates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture convergence, essential climate variables that are difficult to estimate accurately. Similarly, GRACE has been used to constrain estimates of global river discharge and the contribution of changes in TWS to sea level rise. Crowley et al. observed a negative correlation between interannual TWS anomalies in the Amazon and the Congo River basin. Yeh et al. and Rodell et al. estimated regionally averaged groundwater storage variations based on GRACE and auxiliary observations. Rodell et al. and Tiwari et al. applied that method to quantify massive groundwater depletion in northern India caused by over reliance on aquifers for irration, and Famiglietti et al. found a similar situation in California's Central Valley. Zaitchik et al. and Lo et al. described approaches to use GRACE to constrain hydrological models, enabling integration of GRACE data with other observations and achieving much higher spatial and temporal resolutions than GRACE alone. Such approaches are now supporting applications including drought and water resources monitoring. Oceanography has likewise benefitted from the independent nature of GRACE observations. One application is measurement of the mass component of sea level rise, which complements radar altimetry and in situ measurements. GRACE also measures ocean bottom pressures (OBP), which help to refine understanding and modeling of ocean circulation and the ocean's fresh water budget, among other things. For example, Hayakawa et al. showed that GRACE observes OBP patterns absent from the background models of oceanic variability. Morison et al. used GRACE to describe important decadal scale shifts in circulation and an ongoing trend of freshening of the western Arctic, important indicators of climate variability. The research of Song and Zlotnicki and Chambers and Willis on GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressures in the sub-polar gyre led to the discovery of an ENSO teleconnection and a long-term change in OBP in the North Pacific sub-polar gyre that was not predicted by an ocean model. Further, Chambers and Willis were able to identify an internal redistribution of mass between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans lasting at least six years, which was not predicted by ocean models and was the first direct evidence of sustained mass transport from one ocean basin to another on periods longer than a year. Boening et al. observed a record increase in OBP over part of the southeastern Pacific in late 2009 and early 2010, primarily caused by wind stress curl associated with a strong and persistent anticyclone and likely related to the concurrent Central Pacific El Nino. GRACE has far surpassed its 5-year design lifetime, but it will likely succumb to the aging of batteries and instrument systems sometime in the next few years. NASA has begun initial development of a follow-on to GRACE with very similar design, which could launch as soon as 2016 and would provide continuity in the data record while improving resolution slightly. Higher resolution time variable gravity missions are also on the drawing board .
M(sub W) = 7.2-7.4 Estimated for A.D. 900 Seattle Fault Earthquake by Modeling the Uplift of a Lidar-Mapped Marine Terrace
Inverse modeling of slip on the Seattle fault system, constrained by elevations of uplifted marine terraces, provides a well-constrained estimate of the magnitude of the largest known upper-crust earthquake in the Puget Sound region within the past 2500 years. The terrace elevations that constrain the slip inversion are extracted from elevation and slope images generated from LIDAR surveys of the Puget Sound collected in 1996-2002. The images reveal a single uplifted terrace, dated to 1000 cal yr B.P. near Restoration Point, which is morphologically continuous along the southern shoreline of Bainbridge Island and is visible at comparable elevations within a 25 km by 12 km region encompassing coastlines of West Seattle, Bremerton, East Bremerton, Port Orchard, and Waterman Point. Considering sea level changes since A.D. 900, the maximum uplift magnitudes of shoreline inner edges approach 9 m and are located at the southernmost coastline of Bainbridge Island and the northern tip of Waterman Point, while tilt magnitudes are modest - approaching 0.1 degrees. For each of several different Seattle fault geometry interpretations, we use a linear inversion code to solve for distributed slip on the fault surfaces. Moment magnitudes of 7.2 to 7.4 are calculated directly from the different slip solutions. In general, the greatest slip of the A.D. 900 event was confined to the frontal thrust of the Seattle fault system and was centered beneath Puget Sound between Restoration Point and Alki Point.
New Evidence for a Black Hole in the Compact Binary Cygnus X-3
The bright and highly variable X-ray and radio source known as Cygnus X-3 was among the first X-ray sources discovered, yet it remains in many ways an enigma. Its known to consist of a massive. Wolf-Rayet primary in an extremely tight orbit with a compact object. Yet one of the most basic of pa.ranietern the mass of the compact object - is not known. Nor is it even clear whether its is a neutron star or a black hole. In this Paper we present our analysis of the broad-band high-energy continua covering a substantial range in luminosity and spectral morphology. We apply these results to a recently identified scaling relationship which has been demonstrated to provide reliable estimates of the compact object mass in a number of accretion powered binaries. This analysis leads us to conclude that the compact object in Cygnus X-3 has a mass greater than 4.2 solar mass thus clearly indicative of a black hole and as such resolving a longstanding issue. The full range of uncertainty in our analysis and from using a. range of recently published distance estimates constrains the compact object mass to lie between 4.2 solar mass and 14.4 solar mass. Our favored estimate, based on a 9.0 kpc distance estimate is approx. l0 solar mass, with the. error margin of 3.2 solar masses. This result may thus pose challenges to shared-envelope evolutionary models of compact binaries. as well as establishing Cygnus X-3 as the first confirmed accretion-powered galactic gamma: ray source.
"Sintering" Models and In-Situ Experiments: Data Assimilation for Microstructure Prediction in SLS Additive Manufacturing of Nylon Components
Selective laser sintering methods are workhorses for additively manufacturing polymer-based components. The ease of rapid prototyping also means it is easy to produce illicit components. It is necessary to have a data-calibrated in-situ physical model of the build process in order to predict expected and defective microstructure characteristics that inform component provenance. Toward this end, sintering models are calibrated and characteristics such as component defects are explored. This is accomplished by assimilating multiple data streams, imaging analysis, and computational model predictions in an adaptive Bayesian parameter estimation algorithm. From these data sources, along with a phase-field model, bulk porosity distributions are inferred. Model parameters are constrained to physically-relevant search directions by sensitivity analysis, and then matched to predictions using adaptive sampling. Using this feedback loop, data-constrained estimates of sintering model parameters along with uncertainty bounds are obtained.
Atmospheric gradients from very long baseline interferometry observations
Azimuthal asymmetries in the atmospheric refractive index can lead to errors in estimated vertical and horizontal station coordinates. Daily average gradient effects can be as large as 50 mm of delay at a 7 deg elevation. To model gradients, the constrained estimation of gradient paramters was added to the standard VLBI solution procedure. Here the analysis of two sets of data is summarized: the set of all geodetic VLBI experiments from 1990-1993 and a series of 12 state-of-the-art R&D experiments run on consecutive days in January 1994. In both cases, when the gradient parameters are estimated, the overall fit of the geodetic solution is improved at greater than the 99% confidence level. Repeatabilities of baseline lengths ranging up to 11,000 km are improved by 1 to 8 mm in a root-sum-square sense. This varies from about 20% to 40% of the total baseline length scatter without gradient modeling for the 1990-1993 series and 40% to 50% for the January series. Gradients estimated independently for each day as a piecewise linear function are mostly continuous from day to day within their formal uncertainties.
Classification of Volcanic Eruptions on Io and Earth Using Low-Resolution Remote Sensing Data
Two bodies in the Solar System exhibit high-temperature active volcanism: Earth and Io. While there are important differences in the eruptions on Earth and Io, in low-spatial-resolution data (corresponding to the bulk of available and foreseeable data of Io), similar styles of effusive and explosive volcanism yield similar thermal flux densities. For example, a square metre of an active pahoehoe flow on Io looks very similar to a square metre of an active pahoehoe flow on Earth. If, from observed thermal emission as a function of wavelength and change in thermal emission with time, the eruption style of an ionian volcano can be constrained, estimates of volumetric fluxes can be made and compared with terrestrial volcanoes using techniques derived for analysing terrestrial remotely-sensed data. In this way we find that ionian volcanoes fundamentally differ from their terrestrial counterparts only in areal extent, with Io volcanoes covering larger areas, with higher volumetric flux. Io outbursts eruptions have enormous implied volumetric fluxes, and may scale with terrestrial flood basalt eruptions. Even with the low-spatial resolution data available it is possible to sometimes constrain and classify eruption style both on Io and Earth from the integrated thermal emission spectrum. Plotting 2 and 5 m fluxes reveals the evolution of individual eruptions of different styles, as well as the relative intensity of eruptions, allowing comparison to be made from individual eruptions on both planets. Analyses like this can be used for interpretation of low-resolution data until the next mission to the jovian system. For a number of Io volcanoes (including Pele, Prometheus, Amirani, Zamama, Culann, Tohil and Tvashtar) we do have high/moderate resolution imagery to aid determination of eruption mode from analyses based only on low spatial-resolution data.
A model of stationary gravity wave breakdown with convective adjustment
A steady WKB model of gravity wave propagation including convective adjustment is used to investigate approximations used in various gravity-wave parameterization schemes. First, it is shown that estimates of the wave breaking height assuming a single horizontal wavenumber gravity wave can lead to errors if the topography is not sinusoidal. Second, the model results show that the assumption that wave growth ceases with the onset of convection or shear instability is an oversimplification. Since convection appears first over a very limited spatial region of the wave field, the wave is initially unaffected by turbulent mixing. However, when the convection zone spreads over a large portion of the wave field the amplitude is constrained. Estimates of the heat flux by breaking gravity waves are used to develop a simple parameterization of the vertical diffusion in terms of the Reynolds stress.