Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “constrained estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

89 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Kalman Filtering and RTS Smoothing for Arc-Jet Sample Edge Tracking

Accurate and temporally consistent measurements of test-article recession are required to characterize material response during arc-jet ablation experiments. However, image-based boundary measurements are often affected by segmentation noise, brightness variations, and frame-to-frame variability. This work extends arcjetCV [1] with filtering methods for tracking the evolving boundaries of hemispherical and ISO-Q test articles. Two boundary-tracking approaches based on Kalman filtering [2] were implemented. The first applies a point-wise Kalman filter followed by a Rauch–Tung–Striebel smoother [3] to individual boundary-point locations. The second applies the same filtering and smoothing framework to a reduced set of geometry-dependent shape parameters. The point-wise method reduces local frame-to-frame fluctuations while preserving spatial details along the detected boundary. The shape-parameter method provides a compact and geometrically constrained estimate of the sample contour. Figure 1 illustrates the two approaches for a hemispherical test article. Both methods improve temporal consistency and support more robust estimation of surface recession from arc-jet imagery. The two filtering approaches provide complementary representations of boundary evolution and improve the reliability of image-based recession measurements during arc-jet experiments.

recession measurement↗
NASA NTRS2026

LAI Assimilation Schedules to Constrain Uncertain Cultivars and Soils in CERES-Maize

In anticipation of large-domain crop model applications where precise local configuration and calibration is not possible, we describe benefits and potential drawbacks of employing a crop pest module to achieve leaf area index (LAI) assimilation into a high performing CERES-Maize crop model configuration at a field experiment site in Perry, Iowa. Simulation experiments explore the use of MODIS satellite-derived LAI to constrain and adjust LAI to counter imprecise cultivar and soil configurations often occurring in the absence of high-quality local information. Simulations using single-day, window, and continuous LAI replacement across 5 cultivars and 2 soil calibration approaches for nine corn rotation years from 2004 to 2020 led to different yield outcomes and reverberations throughout the field environment. Evaluating variance and mean bias, results indicate minimal interventions in early vegetative and grain-filling stages were more beneficial than use of continuous LAI adjustments, as they minimized disruptions to the internal resource balances governing plant stresses and grain production. LAI adjustment was particularly helpful in constraining growth related to uncertain thermal unit requirements and leaf tip appearance rates (P1 and PHINT cultivar parameters, respectively). Findings underscore the need to assimilate additional state variables to ensure internal biophysical coherence. This approach shows promise for applications spanning wider domains with prediction time pressure where detailed configuration, more complex assimilation methods, or recalibration of crop model parameters may not be practical.

Phenology↗
NASA NTRS2014

Online Prediction of Battery Discharge and Estimation of Parasitic Loads for an Electric Aircraft

Predicting whether or not vehicle batteries contain sufficient charge to support operations over the remainder of a given flight plan is critical for electric aircraft. This paper describes an approach for identifying upper and lower uncertainty bounds on predictions that aircraft batteries will continue to meet output power and voltage requirements over the remainder of a flight plan. Battery discharge prediction is considered here in terms of the following components; (i) online battery state of charge estimation; (ii) prediction of future battery power demand as a function of an aircraft flight plan; (iii) online estimation of additional parasitic battery loads; and finally, (iv) estimation of flight plan safety. Substantial uncertainty is considered to be an irremovable part of the battery discharge prediction problem. However, high-confidence estimates of flight plan safety or lack of safety are shown to be generated from even highly uncertain prognostic predictions.

Battery Discharge Prediction↗
NASA NTRS1993

Estimating the Size of Huffman Code Preambles

Data compression via block-adaptive Huffman coding is considered. The compressor consecutively processes blocks of N data symbols, estimates source statistics by computing the relative frequencies of each source symbol in the block, and then synthesizes a Huffman code based on these estimates. In order to let the decompressor know which Huffman code is being used, the compressor must begin the transmission of each compressed block with a short preamble or header file. This file is an encoding of the list n = (n 1 , n 2 ....,n m ), where n i is the length of the Hufffman codeword associated with the ith source symbol. A simple method of doing this encoding is to individually encode each n i into a fixed-length binary word of length log 2 l, where l is an a priori upper bound on the codeword length. This method produces a maximum preamble length of mlog 2 l bits. The object is to show that, in most cases, no substantially shorter header of any kind is possible.

R J McEliece↗
NASA NTRS2026

Global Model Estimates of Atmospheric Al, Ca, Fe, Si, and Ti from Dust and Non-Dust Aerosols Informed by EMIT Surface Mineralogy and Evaluated Against Observations

Atmospheric deposition of micro-nutrients like Fe has been shown to be important for ocean biogeochemistry. The largest source of atmospheric Fe and other elements (e.g., Ca, Al, Si, and Ti) is desert dust, although there are significant non-dust sources in some regions. However, past estimates of these elements have been substantially uncertain due to limited information about the composition of the desert source regions. Here we use elemental distributions estimated from new Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) observations, which provide mineralogical composition at the surface of the Earth based on imaging spectroscopy measurements from the International Space Station. We add in other sources of these elements (anthropogenic and natural) and compare to a compilation of available surface concentration data from stations over land and from shipborne observations. Our results suggest that the modeled distribution is similar to available observations, but discrepancies still exist in both natural desert dust regions as well as regions dominated by anthropogenic sources. Global budgets for the elements Ca, Al, Fe, Si, and Ti suggest that desert dust remains the dominant source for these elements but anthropogenic or volcanic sources are also important for these elements. Changes in elemental distributions since preindustrial times were also estimated.

aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

mineral dust↗
NASA NTRS1993

Enhanced Decoding for the Galileo S-Band Mission

A coding system under consideration for the Galileo S-band low-gain antenna mission is a concatenated system using a variable redundancy Reed-Solomon outer code and a (14,1/4) convolutional inner code. The 8-bit Reed-Solomon symbols are interleaved to depth 8, and the eight 255-symbol codewords in each interleaved block have redundancies 64, 20, 20, 20, 64, 20, 20, and 20, respectively (or equivalently, the codewords have 191, 235, 235, 235, 191, 235, 235, and 235 8-bit information symbols, respectively). This concatenated code is to be decoded by an enhanced decoder that utilizes a maximum likelihood (Viterbi) convolutional decoder; a Reed Solomon decoder capable of processing erasures; an algorithm for declaring erasures in undecoded codewords based on known erroneous symbols in neighboring decodable words; a second Viterbi decoding operation (redecoding) constrained to follow only paths consistent with the known symbols from previously decodable Reed-Solomon codewords; and a second Reed-Solomon decoding operation using the output from the Viterbi redecoder and additional erasure declarations to the extent possible. It is estimated that this code and decoder can achieve a decoded bit error rate of 1 x 10 -7 at a concatenated code signal-to-noise ratio of 0.76 dB. By comparison, a threshold of 1.17 dB is required for a baseline coding system consisting of the same (14,1/4) convolutional code, a (255,223) Reed-Solomon code with constant redundancy 32 also interleaved to depth 8, a one-pass Viterbi decoder, and a Reed Solomon decoder incapable of declaring or utilizing erasures. The relative gain of the enhanced system is thus 0.41 dB. It is predicted from analysis based on an assumption of infinite interleaving that the coding gain could be further improved by approximately 0.2 dB if four stages of Viterbi decoding and four levels of Reed-Solomon redundancy are permitted. Confirmation of this effect and specification of the optimum four-level redundancy profile for depth-8 interleaving is currently being done.

S Dolinar↗
NASA NTRS2026

X-Ray Polarization of Z-Type Neutron Star Low-Mass X-Ray Binaries II. Spectropolarimetric Analysis

IXPE has provided for the first time detailed energy- and time-resolved X-ray polarimetry of Z-type neutron star low-mass X-ray binaries (NS-LMXBs) as they move along their color-color diagrams (CCDs). These sources can reach the highest polarization observed for NS-LXMBs in the 2–8 keV range when they move along the horizontal branch. In a previous paper, we characterized the spectral state of a sample of Z-sources using the CCD and estimated the polarization with model-independent analysis. Here, we present detailed spectropolarimetric analysis for each source on each branch using data from IXPE, NICER, and NuSTAR. The continuum X-ray emission of all the sources is well described with a combination of thermal accretion disk emission plus a harder Comptonized component. In addition, reflection features, in particular the relativistically broadened Fe Kα line, are observed for our sources, except GX 5–1. For most of the sources and branches, the main contribution to the X-ray emission and polarization is due to Comptonization: moving from the horizontal branch (HB) to the normal branch (NB), the polarization degree (PD) in the 2–8 keV band varies from about 6% to 3–4%, while the PD is loosely constrained in the flaring branch (FB), due to the shorter exposures. These PD values are significantly higher than theoretical expectations for typical spreading or boundary layer configurations. The polarization of the disk is generally lower (below 3%) but still higher than predictions for an electron scattering-dominated, plane-parallel atmosphere above the disk observed at the corresponding inclination. Moreover, the polarization angle (PA) of the disk seems to be significantly misaligned and not perpendicular to that of Comptonization. We find no correlation between the polarization signal and the inclination, nor with the contribution of reflected photons throughout the Z-track.

accretion↗
NASA NTRS2026

Petermann Glacier on the Brink: Progress, Challenges and Insights

Petermann Glacier, the largest marine-terminating glacier in northern Greenland based on catchment area and ice discharge, plays a key role in regulating ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the Arctic Ocean. With an upstream catchment connected to the ice sheet interior via a deep subglacial canyon, its future stability has major implications for sea level rise. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in understanding Petermann’s dynamics across three critical interfaces: the ice–ocean, ice–atmosphere, and ice–bed boundaries. At the surface, observations show that reanalysis products underestimate air temperatures and melt, while regional climate models diverge significantly in their estimates of surface mass balance, underscoring the need for improved in situ data and models. At the ocean boundary, enhanced basal melting driven by both subglacial runoff and Atlantic water intrusions is identified as the dominant driver of recent mass loss of Petermann Glacier, with continued warming posing a serious threat to the stability of the floating tongue. At the bed, new geophysical synthesis reveals complex geology, likely spatial variability in geothermal heat flux, and the influence of the megacanyon on seasonal hydrology and velocity fluctuations. Petermann’s mass balance has been negative in recent decades without corresponding flow acceleration. However, the glacier has undergone significant calving events, and the current rifting that began in September 2025 highlights its vulnerability. This upcoming calving event underscores the timeliness of this review, as it will put Petermann Glacier’s terminus at its most retreated position since records began in 1923. The anticipated retreat of the ice tongue also reduces buttressing and brings the terminus closer to the grounding zone, and modeling studies suggest that calving within 12 km of the grounding zone could potentially trigger dynamic retreat, accelerating ice discharge, and a doubling of flow speeds. We conclude that improved observations, sustained monitoring of oceanographic and atmospheric properties, and high-resolution modeling are critical to constraining projections of Petermann Glacier’s future and its role in the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Dominik Fahrner↗
NASA NTRS1993

Use of Global Positioning System Measurements to Determine Geocentric Coordinates and Variations in Earth Orientation

Geocentric tracking station coordinates and short-period Earth-orientation variations can be measured with Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements. Unless calibrated, geocentric coordinate errors and changes in Earth orientation can lead to significant deep-space tracking errors. Ground-based GPS estimates of daily and subdaily changes in Earth orientation presently show centimeter-level precision. Comparison between GPS-estimated Earth-rotation variations, which are the differences between Universal Time 1 and Universal Coordinated Time (UT1-UTC), and those calculated from ocean tide models suggests that observed subdaily variations in Earth rotation are dominated by oceanic tidal effects. Preliminary GPS estimates for the geocenter location (from a 3-week experiment) agree with independent satellite laser-ranging estimates to better than 10 cm. Covariance analysis predicts that temporal resolution of GPS estimates for Earth orientation and geocenter improves significantly when data collected from low Earth-orbiting satellites as well as from ground sites are combined. The low Earth GPS tracking data enhance the accuracy and resolution for measuring high-frequency global geodynamical signals over time scales of less than 1 day.

R P Malla↗
NASA NTRS2013

Electrochemistry-based Battery Modeling for Prognostics

Batteries are used in a wide variety of applications. In recent years, they have become popular as a source of power for electric vehicles such as cars, unmanned aerial vehicles, and commericial passenger aircraft. In such application domains, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. To implement such technologies, it is crucial to understand how batteries work and to capture that knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnosis, and prognosis algorithms. In this work, we develop electrochemistry-based models of lithium-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles. This paper reports on the progress of such a model, with results demonstrating the model validity and accurate EOD predictions.

battery↗
NASA NTRS2024

Performance of Two Battery Prognostic Applications used by Two Octocopters for Safe Low Altitude Autonomous Flight Operations

This paper addresses the problem of building trust in online predictions of the remaining available flying time for two different electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (eUAVs) powered by lithium-ion-polymer batteries. Flight tests for various automation research missions for the two vehicles were monitored using two on-board battery health management applications to make predictions of the remaining flying time (RFT) for each eUAV and to predict the state of the battery. Playback of the voltage, current and temperature profiles of the battery discharge were used to assess the accuracy of the estimation of the voltage and the charge states of the models as well as the estimate of the RFT. The reference ground truth values were the observed landing time and the measured battery pack resting pack voltage 20 minutes after the flight. The predicted RFT, state of charge (SoC), and state of energy (SoE) were compared with the observed results. Noise values of one standard deviation from the mean values of the internal charge states of the battery model during a reference run were used to vary the states during simulation. One application used an equivalent circuit model of the electrical dynamics of the battery pack, and the other application used a reduced-order electrochemistry model. The variation of the model state components was compared to the variation in the estimate of the RFT and the variation in the SoE to estimate a confidence factor. Variation in the estimates caused by factors affecting the off-line laboratory parameter identification experiments is considered. Variation in the estimates due to environmental factors are discussed.

Assurance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Remote Guidance of a Mothership-Daughtership Formation for Asteroid Exploration

This work presents an application of Model Predictive Control to maintain long-term stability for a three-satellite formation around the asteroid Apophis via remote guidance. The mothership and two daughterships perform tomographic characterization with a bistatic radar. The mothership estimates the states of all three spacecraft and determines the necessary control to maintain the desired antipodal daughtership states. An Extended Kalman Filter estimates the mothership states. A Batch Least Squares algorithm estimates the daughtership states and performs maneuver reconstruction for the mothership-administered thrust commands under thruster and gravitational uncertainty. The formulation maintains the antipodal angle with growing instability amidst these uncertainties.

Guidance↗
NASA NTRS2022

Exploration of an Adaptive Routine for Battery Modeling

The purpose of this document is to explore the use of adaptive routines in battery modeling. The adaptive routines consist of real-time state estimators combined with battery parameter model components that are adjusted in real-time as battery data becomes available. Several aspects are explored. It is shown that model parameter identification is possible for simple battery models using available input/output data measurements. The online system identification used is recursive least squares. Model identification may be combined with a state observer such as the extended Kalman filter or the unscented Kalman filter to form an adaptive model combined with state estimation. However, such a combination is found to be problematic due to uncertainty, observability and stability issues. This paper is organized as follows. Section 1 introduces adaptive routines and possible roles they play in battery modeling. In Section 2 real-time parameter identification is described with results based on battery data. Section 3 reviews various state estimators and results using a simple battery model. In Section 4 parameter identification and state estimation are combined to form an adaptive routine. Finally, in Section 5 conclusions are drawn and future work is suggested.

Adaptive↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Relevant Cell Side Wall Rupture Characterization

The propensity for a cell design to experience can side wall rupture (SWR) during thermal runaway is highly influenced by how a battery design mechanically constrains its cells. Testing cells while unsupported has been found to yield false negative results that don't represent this risk in a battery configuration. This talk addresses how to verify the adequacy of battery design measures used to control SWR and how to get results relevant, accurate, and statistically defendable for a proposed battery design.

thermal runaway↗
NASA NTRS2026

Development, Characterization, and Validation of Elevated-Temperature Constitutive Models: Deformation and Damage

This report provides a brief review of experimentally observed hereditary and nonhereditary material behavior along with background information on standard as well as advanced internal state variable constitutive modeling at elevated temperature. A description of exploratory, characterization, and validation testing is presented along with a detailed outline of what constitutes “sufficient” data content (i.e., quality and quantity) for developing or enhancing, characterizing, and validating a particular sophisticated nonlinear time- and history-dependent (hereditary) class of constitutive models known as GVIPS (generalized viscoplasticity with potential structure). The tests described are necessary to reveal a material’s behavior in the reversible (or viscoelastic) and irreversible (or viscoplastic) regimes, for the identification of both deformation and damage model parameters. Results presented are primarily for metallic materials. In all cases, both uniaxial and multiaxial tests are described, and the linkage between the specific tests and the parameters within the model that can be characterized from the results of these tests are also discussed. Discussion is also provided relative to the role information management must play relative to material data collection, analysis, maintenance, and dissemination. The need for such an information system is particularly important as both analyst and designer move toward utilizations of sophisticated, nonlinear time- and history dependent (hereditary) constitutive models. Lastly, the concept of state space and its utility in understanding and establishing constitutive models is addressed throughout. The intent behind this document is to help both the modeler and experimentalist understand each other’s specific points of view and provide guidance for both model development and characterization. Emphasis has been placed on providing the mechanician with information regarding how tests are performed and what issues to be aware of when interpreting results. It is hoped that experimentalists will take away a new perspective on the types of information that modelers and analysts are looking for from them.

Constitutive Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2021

Mathematical Characterization of Battery Models

The purpose of this document is to demonstrate the use of the Extended Kalman Filter as a tool for battery state estimation and the estimation of battery state of charge. The mathematical details based on the equivalent circuit model are presented followed by an electrochemical engineering model. A simplified first-order model is used to demonstrate the procedure followed by second and third-order models. Next a simplified electrochemistry model is presented along with observer development. State observability is calculated for the simpler equivalent circuit models and the simplified electrochemistry model. An outline of the battery model parameter identification method is presented, and model performance based on experimental and flight data is demonstrated.

Battery↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Technology Assessment and Modelling of Three Terminal Tandem Solar Cells for In-Space Utilization

NASA seeks a sustained human presence on the lunar surface. High-efficiency and resilient energy systems are critical to supporting habitats, scientific outposts, and lunar surface operations. Photovoltaics have long been the backbone of space power systems, transitioning from silicon solar cells to multi-junction III-V solar cells, which now dominate state-of-the-art (SOA) technology. Multi-junction cells achieve high efficiency by layering semiconductors, each absorbing a specific portion of the solar spectrum. However, efficiency gains are increasingly constrained by device physics and manufacturing complexity. Additionally, higher-order junctions pose challenges for accurate modelling and performance characterization due to difficulties in replicating the AM0 spectrum.

solar cells↗